Maricopa County transportation excise tax forecasting process & results

              MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX
Forecasting Process & Results
FY 2003-2006
Arizona Department of Transportation
November 2002
Financial Management Services
November 2002 1
MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX
OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATE
RISK ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED VALUES
as of November 2002
Introduction
This document contains the Arizona Department of Transportation’s (the
Department) forecast of expected values for the Maricopa County Transportation
Excise Tax for the period FY 2003-2006.
Background
Since 1986, the Department has used a comprehensive regression-based
econometric model to estimate Transportation Excise Tax revenues for Maricopa
County. These revenues, which flow into the Regional Area Road Fund (RARF),
are the major funding source for the Maricopa County Freeway Program.
The revenue forecast is highly dependent on estimates of independent variables. In
order to deal with variability between estimated and actual values, the Department
introduced the Risk Analysis Process (RAP) in 1992. The RAP relies on
probability analysis and the independent evaluation of the model’s variables by an
expert panel of economists. The process results in a series of forecasts, with
specified probabilities of occurrence, rather than a single or “best guess” estimate.
Enhanced forecasting accuracy was achieved in July 1996, when Hickling Lewis
Brod Inc. (HLB) working in conjunction with Dr. Dennis Hoffman of Arizona State
University, incorporated economic data and independent variables which were not
included in the 1986 model.
In September 2000, HLB reviewed the model and updated the equations. The
independent variables contained in the updated model include:
• Maricopa County real income growth per capita
• Maricopa County population growth
• Maricopa County construction employment growth
• Phoenix Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• Prime interest rate.
November 2002 2
Risk Analysis Panel
The Risk Analysis Process relies heavily on the judgments of an expert panel of
economists to provide information critical to the forecasting process. In September
2002, an expert panel of eleven economists, representing public, private, and
academic sectors provided their individual estimates of the model’s independent
variables and comments on the future economic outlook.
The information gathered from the panelists was input into the updated model to
produce a series of forecasts with associated probabilities of occurrence. The data
are detailed in the tables at the back of this report.
Model Results
The model results from the panelists inputs produced a mean forecast of $1,064.9
million for the period FY 2003-2006 with a compound growth rate of 5.8 percent.
The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 2003-2006 totals $1,064.0 million with
a compound growth rate of 5.8 percent. The FY 2003 forecast of $275.6 million
was developed independently of the econometric model using time series
techniques and historic and projected growth rates from the model. This forecast
assumed little growth through the first six-months and modest growth through the
second six-months.
The FY 2003-2006 forecast utilizes the 50% confidence interval to account for less
uncertainty in the future due to the expiration of the excise tax in three years. The
Mean Forecast and the Department’s Official Forecast are detailed below.
FY 2003 Official Forecast
(Dollars in Millions)
Fiscal Mean Official Confidence
Year Forecast Forecast Level
2003 $275.7 $275.6 N/A
2004 $290.8 $290.4 50%
2005 $308.0 $307.5 50%
2006 $190.4 $190.5 50%
Total $1,064.9 $1,064.0
Ave. CGR 5.8% 5.8%
November 2002 3
Summary
For FY 2003-2006, the Department’s Official Forecast totals $1.06 billion which
reflects the remaining three and a half years of the Maricopa County Transportation
Excise Tax. Compared to last year’s forecast, the November 2002 forecast was
reduced by $49.6 million to reflect the continued economic slowdown in Maricopa
County that began approximately 18 months ago. Although the low interest rates
have encouraged the purchase of new motor vehicles and homes, there continues to
be an underlying weakness in the economy due to the job losses and the stock
market uncertainty. On the bright side, the economy is predicted to pickup steam in
FY 2004, however, the robust growth seen in the mid-to-late 1990’s is not expected
to be repeated.
Supplementary Information
The remainder of this report presents supplementary information on the
Department’s model, the values of the independent variables forecast by the expert
panel, and detailed results of the Risk Analysis Process.
For comparison purposes, the December 2001 Official Forecast and the November
2002 Official Forecast are shown below:
FY 2003 Comparative Forecast
(Dollars in Millions)
Dec. 01 Nov. 02
Fiscal Official Official
Year Forecast Forecast Difference
2003 $284.8 $275.6 ($9.2)
2004 $302.7 $290.4 ($12.3)
2005 $323.9 $307.5 ($16.4)
2006 $202.2 $190.5 ($11.7)
Total $1,113.6 $1,064.0 ($49.6)
Avg. CGR 6.8% 5.8%
4
November 2002
Fiscal Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Percentile Actual N/A 50% 50% 50%
Retail Sales $131.4 $135.6 $143.5 $152.8 $95.0
Contracting 41.2 42.1 43.1 44.3 26.9
Utilities 18.4 19.0 20.0 21.0 13.0
Restaurant / Bar 21.7 22.6 23.7 25.2 15.7
Rental - Real Property 24.5 25.5 27.2 28.9 17.9
Rental - Personal Prop. 13.9 14.2 15.1 16.0 9.9
Other 16.3 16.6 17.8 19.3 12.1
Total $267.6 $275.6 $290.4 $307.5 $190.5
RARF Official Revenue Forecast
With Category Detail and Confidence Interval by Fiscal Year
(Current Dollars in Millions)
5 November 2002
RARF TOTAL TAX REVENUE RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS
(Current Dollars in Millions)
Fiscal
Year Mean 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
2003 $275.7 $282.1 $279.8 $278.4 $277.0 $275.6 $274.3 $273.1 $271.2 $269.5
2004 290.8 299.3 295.9 293.9 292.1 290.4 288.9 287.5 285.6 282.4
2005 308.0 317.7 314.7 312.5 309.7 307.5 305.8 303.8 301.4 298.7
2006 190.4 197.7 195.0 193.1 191.8 190.5 189.0 187.2 186.0 183.7
November 2002 6
Official Forecast Results
(Current Dollars in Millions)
Fiscal Official Mean 80% Conf. 20% Conf.
Year Forecast Forecast Interval Interval
2003 $275.6 $275.7 $271.2 $279.8
2004 290.4 290.8 285.6 295.9
2005 307.5 308.0 301.4 314.7
2006 190.5 190.4 186.0 195.0
Total $1,064.0 $1,064.9 $1,044.2 $1,085.4
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
2003 2004 2005 2006
Fiscal Year
Millions of Current Dollars
Official Fcst Mean Fcst 80% Conf. Interval 20% Conf. Interval
November 2002 7
Maricopa County Real Income Per Capita
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006
Fiscal Year
Growth Rate
Median Lower 10% Upper 10%
Maricopa County Population
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006
Fiscal Year
Growth Rate Median Lower 10% Upper 10%
November 2002 8
Maricopa County Construction Employment Growth Rate
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006
Fiscal Year
Growth Rate
Median Lower 10% Upper 10%
Prime Interest Rate
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006
Fiscal Year
Growth Rate
Median Lower 10% Upper 10%
November 2002 9
Phoenix CPI
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
2003 2004 2005 2006
Fiscal Year
Growth Rate
Median Lower 10% Upper 10%
November 2002 10
Mean Panelist Data Values
All data in the above table are percentage growth rates with the exception of the Prime Rate
column which are nominal percentage values.
Income Population Construction Prime Phoenix
Growth Growth Employment Rate CPI Growth
FY 2003
Upper 10% 1.59 2.93 -0.45 6.47 2.25
Lower 10% -0.05 1.96 -4.36 4.33 1.28
Median 0.88 2.47 -2.08 5.23 1.68
FY 2004
Upper 10% 1.77 3.03 1.75 7.06 2.66
Lower 10% 0.11 1.87 -2.57 4.79 1.46
Median 1.03 2.48 -0.06 5.83 1.97
FY 2005
Upper 10% 2.12 3.16 3.27 7.69 3.42
Lower 10% 0.33 1.99 -1.16 5.08 1.59
Median 1.31 2.59 1.73 6.22 2.42
FY 2006
Upper 10% 2.15 3.19 4.62 8.33 3.97
Lower 10% 0.39 1.93 0.08 5.18 1.69
Median 1.29 2.60 2.95 6.47 2.67
November 2002 11
All data in the above table are percentage growth rates.
Per Capita Income Growth Rate
2003 2004 2005 2006
Panelist 1
Upper 10% 2.00 2.50 2.90 3.50
Lower 10% -0.50 -0.60 -0.70 -0.80
Median 0.30 0.70 1.00 1.50
Panelist 2
Upper 10% 1.25 2.25 2.50 2.25
Lower 10% -1.00 0.00 0.25 0.50
Median 0.75 1.25 2.00 1.50
Panelist 3
Upper 10% 1.90 2.10 2.40 2.60
Lower 10% -1.50 -1.20 -1.30 -0.90
Median 1.30 1.70 1.50 1.00
Panelist 4
Upper 10% 1.50 1.70 1.70 1.80
Lower 10% 0.90 1.10 1.10 1.20
Median 1.30 1.50 1.50 1.60
Panelist 5
Upper 10% 1.70 1.90 2.00 2.10
Lower 10% 0.80 0.90 0.70 0.70
Median 1.30 1.50 1.50 1.40
Panelist 6
Upper 10% 1.00 1.00 1.50 1.80
Lower 10% -1.00 -1.00 -0.50 0.00
Median 0.00 0.00 0.50 1.00
Panelist 7
Upper 10% 2.30 1.80 3.40 2.80
Lower 10% 0.00 -0.50 1.10 0.50
Median 0.50 0.30 1.50 1.30
Panelist 8
Upper 10% 1.00 1.30 1.60 1.40
Lower 10% -0.20 0.20 0.40 0.50
Median 0.50 1.00 1.20 1.00
Panelist 9
Upper 10% 1.60 1.70 1.50 1.30
Lower 10% 1.00 1.10 0.80 0.80
Median 1.30 1.40 1.10 1.00
Panelist 10
Upper 10% 2.20 2.00 1.80 1.60
Lower 10% 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80
Median 1.70 1.70 1.60 1.40
Panelist 11
Upper 10% 1.00 1.25 2.00 2.50
Lower 10% -0.50 0.00 0.75 1.00
Median 0.75 0.25 1.00 1.50
November 2002 12
All data in the above table are percentage growth rates.
Maricopa County Population Growth Rate
2003 2004 2005 2006
Panelist 1
Upper 10% 3.60 3.80 4.20 4.40
Lower 10% 1.90 1.90 2.00 1.90
Median 2.40 2.30 2.70 2.90
Panelist 2
Upper 10% 2.50 2.90 3.20 3.40
Lower 10% 1.80 2.00 2.40 2.40
Median 2.30 2.60 2.90 3.00
Panelist 3
Upper 10% 2.60 2.80 2.90 3.00
Lower 10% 1.70 0.50 0.50 0.50
Median 2.30 2.40 2.40 2.50
Panelist 4
Upper 10% 2.60 2.50 2.50 2.40
Lower 10% 2.20 2.10 2.10 2.00
Median 2.50 2.40 2.40 2.30
Panelist 5
Upper 10% 2.60 2.70 2.70 2.90
Lower 10% 2.10 1.90 1.80 1.50
Median 2.40 2.30 2.30 2.20
Panelist 6
Upper 10% 3.50 3.40 3.30 3.00
Lower 10% 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.90
Median 2.70 2.70 2.60 2.50
Panelist 7
Upper 10% 4.00 4.10 4.70 4.70
Lower 10% 2.20 2.20 2.70 2.70
Median 3.10 3.00 3.50 3.50
Panelist 8
Upper 10% 2.50 2.60 2.80 3.00
Lower 10% 1.80 1.90 2.10 2.20
Median 2.20 2.30 2.50 2.80
Panelist 9
Upper 10% 2.40 2.60 2.50 2.50
Lower 10% 1.70 1.90 2.00 2.00
Median 2.00 2.20 2.30 2.20
Panelist 10
Upper 10% 3.20 3.00 3.00 2.80
Lower 10% 2.40 2.20 2.20 2.00
Median 2.80 2.70 2.60 2.50
Panelist 11
Upper 10% 2.75 2.90 2.95 3.00
Lower 10% 1.75 2.00 2.10 2.10
Median 2.50 2.40 2.30 2.20
November 2002 13
All data in the above table are percentage growth rates.
Maricopa Construction Employment Growth Rate
2003 2004 2005 2006
Panelist 1
Upper 10% 1.00 2.00 4.00 5.00
Lower 10% -2.50 -2.00 -1.00 0.00
Median -1.50 -0.20 1.50 3.00
Panelist 2
Upper 10% -1.00 0.00 3.00 7.00
Lower 10% -5.00 -3.00 -2.00 1.00
Median -2.50 -2.00 2.00 5.00
Panelist 3
Upper 10% -2.50 1.50 3.00 4.00
Lower 10% -10.00 -5.50 -10.00 -5.00
Median -5.00 0.00 2.00 2.00
Panelist 4
Upper 10% -1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00
Lower 10% -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00
Median -1.10 -2.00 0.00 1.00
Panelist 5
Upper 10% 1.00 2.60 2.80 2.90
Lower 10% -2.00 1.00 1.00 0.90
Median -1.50 2.00 2.00 2.50
Panelist 6
Upper 10% -2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
Lower 10% -10.00 -10.00 -5.00 -5.00
Median -5.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00
Panelist 7
Upper 10% 2.00 4.70 6.00 9.00
Lower 10% -7.00 -4.30 0.00 0.00
Median 0.00 2.00 3.00 5.00
Panelist 8
Upper 10% -1.00 0.00 2.00 4.50
Lower 10% -2.20 -1.50 0.00 1.50
Median -1.80 -1.00 1.00 3.00
Panelist 9
Upper 10% -1.50 1.00 1.30 1.50
Lower 10% -3.50 -1.00 0.00 0.50
Median -2.50 0.00 0.50 1.00
Panelist 10
Upper 10% -1.00 1.00 2.90 3.40
Lower 10% -2.00 -1.00 1.00 1.00
Median -1.50 0.00 2.00 2.00
Panelist 11
Upper 10% 1.00 2.50 6.00 7.50
Lower 10% -0.75 1.00 4.25 6.00
Median -0.50 1.50 5.00 7.00
November 2002 14
All data in the above table are nominal percentage values.
Prime Interest Rate
2003 2004 2005 2006
Panelist 1
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 2
Upper 10% 7.00 7.50 8.50 9.00
Lower 10% 5.00 6.00 6.00 6.00
Median 5.50 6.50 7.00 7.50
Panelist 3
Upper 10% 6.00 7.50 8.50 8.50
Lower 10% 4.00 4.50 4.00 4.00
Median 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.75
Panelist 4
Upper 10% 6.50 7.00 7.00 8.00
Lower 10% 4.50 5.00 5.00 6.00
Median 5.50 6.00 6.00 7.00
Panelist 5
Upper 10% 4.75 5.00 6.75 7.50
Lower 10% 3.75 3.50 4.00 3.75
Median 4.25 4.50 5.25 6.00
Panelist 6
Upper 10% 6.00 7.00 7.00 8.00
Lower 10% 3.00 3.00 3.50 4.00
Median 5.00 5.50 5.50 5.70
Panelist 7
Upper 10% 7.70 8.50 9.50 9.00
Lower 10% 4.70 5.50 6.50 5.00
Median 6.20 7.00 8.00 6.50
Panelist 8
Upper 10% 5.80 6.00 6.30 6.60
Lower 10% 5.20 5.30 5.60 5.70
Median 5.40 5.60 6.00 6.30
Panelist 9
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 10
Upper 10% 8.00 8.00 8.00 10.00
Lower 10% 4.50 5.50 6.00 7.00
Median 5.50 7.00 7.50 8.00
Panelist 11
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
November 2002 15
All data in the above table are percentage growth rates.
Phoenix CPI Growth Rate
2003 2004 2005 2006
Panelist 1
Upper 10% 2.50 3.50 4.70 5.30
Lower 10% 1.00 1.70 1.90 2.20
Median 1.50 2.20 3.00 3.50
Panelist 2
Upper 10% 4.50 5.00
Lower 10% 1.50 2.00 2.50 2.50
Median 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.00
Panelist 3
Upper 10% 2.10 2.70 4.00 6.00
Lower 10% 1.20 1.00 0.90 1.00
Median 1.70 2.00 2.50 2.50
Panelist 4*
Upper 10% 2.00 2.30 2.60 2.60
Lower 10% 1.50 1.80 2.00 2.00
Median 1.70 2.00 2.20 2.20
Panelist 5
Upper 10% 1.90 2.20 2.60 3.00
Lower 10% 1.30 1.30 1.20 1.10
Median 1.60 1.70 1.80 2.00
Panelist 6
Upper 10% 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.20
Lower 10% 1.30 1.50 1.50 1.50
Median 1.70 2.00 2.00 2.20
Panelist 7
Upper 10% 2.60 2.50 3.50 4.00
Lower 10% 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80
Median 1.50 1.40 2.50 3.00
Panelist 8
Upper 10% 1.90 2.30 2.70 3.00
Lower 10% 1.50 1.60 1.90 2.10
Median 1.70 1.90 2.30 2.60
Panelist 9
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 10
Upper 10% 2.00 2.80 3.20 3.60
Lower 10% 1.40 1.40 1.60 2.00
Median 1.70 2.00 2.50 3.00
Panelist 11
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
November 2002 16
HISTORIC DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960 1970 1980 -0.4% 1990 -0.3% 2000 1.9%
1961 1971 1981 -2.3% 1991 -2.2% 2001 1.4%
1962 1972 1.5% 1982 -3.1% 1992 -1.0% 2002 * 1.2%
1963 1973 3.1% 1983 -0.1% 1993 0.1% 2003
1964 1974 1.1% 1984 4.3% 1994 0.0% 2004
1965 1975 -5.1% 1985 3.1% 1995 1.5% 2005
1966 1976 -3.5% 1986 2.8% 1996 1.1% 2006
1967 1977 1.5% 1987 1.5% 1997 2.1% 2007
1968 1978 4.4% 1988 1.0% 1998 2.1% 2008
1969 1979 3.4% 1989 -0.5% 1999 2.1% 2009
*Estimate
HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED
HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS
Historical Std.
Period Min. Max. Mean Dev. Lower Upper
5 Years 1.20% 2.10% 1.74% 0.42% 1.28% 2.10%
10 Years 0.00% 2.10% 1.35% 0.78% 0.09% 2.10%
Full Period -5.09% 4.43% 0.74% 2.26% -2.25% 3.15%
80% Range
HISTORICAL DATA
GROWTH IN REAL INCOME PER CAPITA
Using Phoenix CPI to Measure Inflation
(Annual Percent Change)
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Fiscal Year
Percent Change
November 2002 17
HISTORIC DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960 1970 4.4% 1980 4.0% 1990 1.4% 2000 1.4%
1961 1971 5.7% 1981 3.4% 1991 2.4% 2001 2.5%
1962 4.7% 1972 5.9% 1982 2.9% 1992 2.8% 2002 2.5%
1963 4.5% 1973 6.4% 1983 3.2% 1993 3.5% 2003
1964 3.7% 1974 5.2% 1984 4.4% 1994 4.2% 2004
1965 2.7% 1975 3.0% 1985 5.3% 1995 4.7% 2005
1966 2.2% 1976 2.1% 1986 4.2% 1996 4.2% 2006
1967 2.2% 1977 3.9% 1987 4.5% 1997 3.3% 2007
1968 2.5% 1978 4.4% 1988 2.9% 1998 3.1% 2008
1969 3.1% 1979 4.9% 1989 2.6% 1999 3.8% 2009
DES smoothed out the 1991 to 1995 figures. 1996-1999 data from October 2000 approved DES estimates and
2000-2002 from February 1997 approved DES projections.
HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED
HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS
Historical Std. 80% Range
Period Min. Max. Mean Dev. Lower Upper
5 Years 1.40% 3.80% 2.65% 0.89% 1.83% 3.52%
10 Years 1.40% 4.70% 3.32% 0.99% 2.37% 4.25%
Full Period 1.36% 6.39% 3.63% 1.20% 2.21% 5.25%
HISTORICAL DATA
MARICOPA COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH
(Annual Percent Change)
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Fiscal Year
Percent Change
November 2002 18
HISTORIC DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960 1970 18.2% 1980 5.2% 1990 -7.2% 2000 6.2%
1961 1971 5.9% 1981 -6.7% 1991 -6.5% 2001 3.1%
1962 8.3% 1972 24.9% 1982 -6.5% 1992 -2.4% 2002 * -1.1%
1963 3.6% 1973 21.3% 1983 5.4% 1993 9.5% 2003
1964 33.3% 1974 0.4% 1984 23.4% 1994 15.4% 2004
1965 -10.5% 1975 -19.3% 1985 20.3% 1995 15.8% 2005
1966 59.2% 1976 -16.3% 1986 7.9% 1996 9.7% 2006
1967 -1.9% 1977 14.7% 1987 -5.8% 1997 5.8% 2007
1968 5.2% 1978 38.7% 1988 -9.8% 1998 8.7% 2008
1969 46.9% 1979 32.7% 1989 -9.1% 1999 9.7% 2009
*Estimate
HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED
HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS
Historical Std. 80% Range
Period Min. Max. Mean Dev. Lower Upper
5 Years -1.10% 9.66% 5.05% 4.61% 0.03% 9.29%
10 Years -1.10% 15.79% 8.14% 5.31% 1.45% 15.42%
Full Period -19.33% 59.23% 8.66% 16.75% -9.10% 32.72%
HISTORICAL DATA
MARICOPA COUNTY GROWTH IN CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT
(Annual Percent Change)
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Fiscal Year
Percent Change
November 2002 19
HISTORIC DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960 1970 8.37% 1980 14.98% 1990 10.30% 2000 8.60%
1961 4.57% 1971 6.62% 1981 16.62% 1991 9.46% 2001 8.74%
1962 4.50% 1972 5.38% 1982 17.53% 1992 7.25% 2002 5.31%
1963 4.50% 1973 6.06% 1983 12.01% 1993 6.00% 2003
1964 4.50% 1974 9.79% 1984 11.29% 1994 6.23% 2004
1965 4.50% 1975 9.82% 1985 11.38% 1995 8.37% 2005
1966 4.94% 1976 7.22% 1986 9.24% 1996 8.52% 2006
1967 5.80% 1977 6.59% 1987 7.73% 1997 8.32% 2007
1968 5.96% 1978 7.71% 1988 8.66% 1998 8.50% 2008
1969 6.91% 1979 10.85% 1989 10.56% 1999 7.98% 2009
HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED
HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS
Historical Std. 80% Range
Period Min. Max. Mean Dev. Lower Upper
5 Years 5.31% 8.74% 7.83% 1.44% 6.38% 8.68%
10 Years 5.31% 8.74% 7.66% 1.28% 5.93% 8.61%
Full Period 4.50% 17.53% 8.29% 3.09% 4.61% 11.37%
HISTORICAL DATA
PRIME INTEREST RATE
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Fiscal Year
Percent Change
November 2002 20
HISTORIC DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960 1970 1980 13.7% 1990 4.9% 2000 3.4%
1961 1971 1981 13.6% 1991 4.7% 2001 2.4%
1962 1972 6.1% 1982 10.0% 1992 3.4% 2002* 1.8%
1963 1973 5.6% 1983 5.5% 1993 3.1% 2003
1964 1974 7.6% 1984 3.5% 1994 3.6% 2004
1965 1975 11.7% 1985 4.6% 1995 4.0% 2005
1966 1976 11.1% 1986 4.2% 1996 4.6% 2006
1967 1977 7.7% 1987 2.9% 1997 4.9% 2007
1968 1978 7.7% 1988 3.4% 1998 4.4% 2008
1969 1979 10.7% 1989 4.3% 1999 3.9% 2009
* Estimate
HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED
HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS
Historical Std. 80% Range
Period Min. Max. Mean Dev. Lower Upper
5 Years 1.80% 4.39% 3.16% 1.06% 2.04% 4.18%
10 Years 1.80% 4.91% 3.60% 0.98% 2.34% 4.64%
Full Period 1.80% 13.70% 5.90% 3.31% 3.09% 11.10%
HISTORICAL DATA
PHOENIX CPI GROWTH RATE
(Annual Percent Change)
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Fiscal Year
Percent Change