Maricopa County transportation excise tax forecasting process & results

              MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX
Forecasting Process & Results
FY 2013-2026
October 2012
Financial Management Services
TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 1 Background 1 Risk Analysis Panel 2 Model Results 2 Summary 3 Supplementary Information 1. RARF Official Revenue Forecast 4 2. RARF Revenue Risk Analysis Results by Probability 5 3. RARF Official Revenue Forecast Distribution 6 4. Panelist Data Values 7-11 6. Panel Members Inputs by Independent Variable 12-18 7. Independent Variable Historical Values 19-25 1
October 2012
MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX
OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATE
RISK ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED VALUES
Introduction
In 1985, the voters of Maricopa County approved Proposition 300 to establish a ½ cent transportation excise (sales) tax for construction of a regional freeway system within the county. The ½ cent sales tax was approved for a period of 20 years and ended on December 31, 2005.
On November 2, 2004, Maricopa County’s voters approved Proposition 400 which extended the ½ cent sales tax for another 20 years through December 31, 2025. The sales tax extension is used for construction of new freeways, widening of existing freeways and highways, improvements to the arterial street system, regional bus service and other special transportation services, and high capacity transit services such as light rail, bus rapid transit and express buses.
This document contains the official forecast of expected values for the Maricopa County Transportation Excise Tax for the period FY 2013–2026 as developed by the Arizona Department of Transportation (the Department) in cooperation with the Maricopa Association of Governments, Valley Metro and Valley Metro Rail.
Background
Since 1986, the Arizona Department of Transportation (the Department) has used a comprehensive regression-based econometric model to estimate Transportation Excise Tax revenues for Maricopa County. These revenues, which flow into the Regional Area Road Fund (RARF), are the major funding source for the Maricopa County Freeway Program.
The revenue forecast is highly dependent on estimates of independent variables. In order to deal with variability between estimated and actual values, the Department introduced the Risk Analysis Process (RAP) in 1992. The RAP relies on probability analysis and the independent evaluation of the model’s variables by an expert panel of economists. The process results in a series of forecasts, with specified probabilities of occurrence, rather than a single or “best guess” estimate.
Enhanced forecasting accuracy was achieved in July 1997 when Hickling Lewis Brod Inc. (HLB) working in conjunction with Dr. Dennis Hoffman of Arizona State University, incorporated economic data and independent variables which were not included in the 1986 model.
In September 2005, the Department had HDR Decision Economics re-examine the structure of the RARF model and re-evaluate the set of explanatory variables used in the production of the RARF revenue forecasts. Three new variables (U. S. Housing Starts, Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic and Maricopa County Total Non-Farm Employment Growth) were added to the existing list of variables used in the RARF regression equations. The September 2010 panel members requested the Maricopa County per capita personal income variable to be in nominal dollars instead of real dollars. In September 2011, the prime interest rate variable was replaced by the 30 year mortgage rate variable and the U.S. housing starts variable was removed from the model.
2
October 2012
The independent variables contained in the current model are:
1. Maricopa County nominal personal income growth
2. Maricopa County population growth
3. Maricopa County construction employment growth
4. Phoenix consumer price index (CPI)
5. Sky Harbor passenger traffic growth
6. Maricopa County total non-farm employment growth
7. 30 year mortgage rate
Risk Analysis Panel
The Risk Analysis Process relies heavily on the judgments of an expert panel of economic and financial participants to provide information critical to the forecasting process. In August 2012, a panel of fourteen economic and financial experts representing public, private, and academic sectors submitted their individual estimates of the model’s independent variables and comments on the future economic outlook. The information gathered from the panelists was input into the model to produce a series of forecasts with associated probabilities of occurrence. The panelists’ inputs are reflected in the attached tables at the back of this report.
Model Results
This year ‘s panel inputs produced a mean forecast of $6,851.7 million for the period FY 2013-2026 with a compound growth rate (CGR) of 5.4 percent. The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 2013-2026 totals $6,446.8 million with a compound growth rate of 4.9 percent. This year’s Official Forecast is $47.4 million lower than last year’s Official Forecast.
The Department’s Official Forecast result incorporates the 50 percent confidence interval growth rate amount for each year of the forecast except for FY 2013. The FY 2013 forecast of $340.5 million was developed by ADOT staff using time series techniques, historical and projected growth rates and recent legislative changes.
FY 2013 Official Forecast
(Dollars in Millions)
Fiscal
Mean
Official
Confidence
Year
Forecast
Forecast
Level
2013
$344.4
$340.5
50%
2014
372.5
361.1
50%
2015
397.8
381.4
50%
2016
422.7
401.8
50%
2017
446.6
422.9
50%
2018
470.7
443.0
50%
2019
495.4
464.3
50%
2020
519.9
487.9
50%
2021
544.2
509.3
50%
2022
569.7
532.4
50%
2023
596.1
554.0
50%
2024
623.2
578.0
50%
2025
651.5
602.3
50%
2026/1
397.0
367.9
50%
Total
$6,851.7
$6,446.8
Average CGR
5.4%
4.9%
Note: /1. FY 2026 totals reflect the transportation excise tax extension expires
on December 31, 2025
3
October 2012
Summary
The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 2013-2026 totals $6,446.8 million, a decrease of $47.4 million from the October 2011 Official Forecast. The RAP results reflect the panel members’ continued concern with Maricopa County’s slower population and job growth going forward and the global economic uncertainty. Compared to last year, the panel inputs were very different for the construction employment and 30-year mortgage rate independent variables. The construction employment growth rates for fiscal years 2013 to 2017 were significantly higher while the 30-year mortgage rates were lower for fiscal years 2013 to 2016 but were higher for fiscal years 2021 to 2026. The remainder of the RAP panel inputs were similar as last year.
Supplementary Information
The remainder of this report presents supplementary information on the detailed results of the Risk Analysis Process, the Department’s model and the values of the independent variables forecast by the expert panel. While the Official Forecast period is FY 2013-2026, panel inputs were requested for FY 2013-2017, 2021 and 2026. Data displayed for other than the requested years, has been extrapolated.
For comparison purposes, the October 2011 Official Forecast and the October 2012 Official Forecast are shown below:
Oct. 11Oct. 12FiscalOfficialOfficialYearForecastForecastDifference2013$344.2$340.5($3.7)2014364.8361.1(3.7)2015385.4381.4(4.0)2016405.9401.8(4.1)2017426.5422.9(3.6)2018447.2443.0(4.2)2019470.2464.3(5.9)2020489.9487.9(2.0)2021511.6509.3(2.3)2022534.6532.4(2.2)2023557.0554.0(3.0)2024580.0578.0(2.0)2025607.1602.3(4.8)2026/1369.8367.9(1.9)Total$6,494.2$6,446.8($47.4)Average CGR4.8%4.9% Note: /1 FY 2026 totals reflect the transportation excise tax extension expires on December 31, 2025FY 2013-2026 Comparative Forecast(Dollars in Millions)October 2012
Fiscal Year201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026TotalPercentileActual50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%Retail Sales$162.4$171.3$180.6$189.5$199.2$209.6$219.4$229.5$242.3$253.1$265.6$276.3$287.7$300.5$183.8$3,208.4Contracting30.532.937.842.445.849.051.254.357.259.161.163.466.168.541.8730.6Utilties30.230.931.832.934.035.136.337.638.80.041.342.744.145.627.5518.6Restaurant and Bar34.336.438.540.743.145.347.750.553.055.858.161.064.266.740.9701.9Rental of Real Property36.437.739.341.243.345.647.749.951.954.557.359.362.164.739.2693.7Rental of Personal Property12.012.413.314.014.815.516.717.618.619.320.321.222.123.114.2243.1Other18.418.919.820.721.622.824.024.926.127.528.730.13.733.220.5350.5Total$324.2$340.5$361.1$381.4$401.8$422.9$443.0$464.3$487.9$509.3$532.4$554.0$578.0$602.3$367.9$6,446.8Note: /1 FY 2026 totals reflect the transporttion excise tax extension expires on December 31, 2025RARF Official Revenue Forecast With Category Detail and Confidence Interval by Fiscal Year(Current Dollars in Millions)October 2012
RARF TOTAL TAX REVENUE RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS
RARF TOTAL TAX REVENUE RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS
(Current Dollars in Millions)
Fiscal
Year Mean 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
2013 $344.4 $392.5 $372.4 $359.3 $349.3 $340.5 $331.2 $322.5 $313.3 $301.0
2014 372.5 458.0 420.7 397.7 379.8 361.1 347.7 333.2 316.7 295.4
2015 397.8 515.9 462.8 431.2 405.0 381.4 363.1 342.2 320.5 292.5
2016 422.7 569.0 501.9 462.2 430.4 401.8 378.4 354.8 328.0 295.4
2017 446.6 615.2 536.8 492.9 455.2 422.9 395.5 366.7 336.1 300.5
2018 470.7 660.7 571.9 522.3 481.9 443.0 412.4 381.6 346.9 306.4
2019 495.4 703.9 605.5 550.4 507.3 464.3 430.8 397.9 360.9 315.7
2020 519.9 744.0 638.9 577.7 532.3 487.9 450.5 413.9 375.3 324.2
2021 544.2 783.4 673.7 607.1 556.0 509.3 471.1 431.6 389.5 336.0
2022 569.7 822.8 706.9 637.4 582.4 532.4 491.1 449.0 406.0 349.2
2023 596.1 871.5 740.5 669.0 612.3 554.0 508.9 469.3 418.5 359.4
2024 623.2 915.4 776.2 698.9 638.1 578.0 532.6 487.3 435.6 374.3
2025 651.5 963.0 815.9 731.3 665.1 602.3 552.5 504.6 452.2 387.4
2026/1 397.0 588.1 498.0 445.4 405.9 367.9 336.0 306.2 274.2 234.9
Total $6,851.7 $9,603.4 $8,322.1 $7,582.8 $7,001.0 $6,446.8 $6,001.8 $5,560.8 $5,073.7 $4,472.3
Note: /1 FY 2026 totals reflect the transportation excise tax extension expires on December 31, 2025.
6
October 2012
Public TransportationFiscalFreeways Arterial Streets FundYear(56.2%)(10.5 %)(33.3%)Total2013$191.4$35.7$113.4$340.52014202.937.9120.3361.12015214.340.1127.0381.42016225.842.2133.8401.82017237.744.4140.8422.92018249.046.5147.5443.02019260948.8154.6464.32020274.251.2162.5487.92021286.253.5169.6509.32022299.255.9177.3532.42023311.358.2184.5554.02024324.860.7192.557.02025338.563.2200.6602.32026 /2206.838.6122.5367.9TOTALS$3,623.0$676.9$2,146.9$6,446.8Note: 1/ The Regional Public Transportation Authority receives a portion of the excise tax funds for transit costswhich is adjusted annually by the GDP price deflator. Beginning July 1, 2005, this transfer from RARF is divided equally between MAG and the Public Transportation Fund for planning and administering the regional transportation plan.2/ FY 2026 totals reflect the transportatio n excise tax extension expires on December 31, 2025DistributionPer Laws 2004, Chapter 2 (HB 2456), the sales tax extension are distributed as follows: / 1. 56.2 percent to the Regional Area Road (RARF) fund for freeways and other routes in the state highway systems, including capital expense and maintenance. / 2. 10.5 percent to the RARF fund for major arterial streets and intersection improvements, including capital expenses and implementation studies. / 3. 33.3 percent to the Public Transportation Fund for: (a) Capital costs, maintenance and operation of public transportation classifications. (b) Capital costs and utility relocation costs associated with a light rail public transit system. RARF OFFICIAL REVENUE FORECAST DISTRIBUTION(Current Dollars in Millions)Regional Area Road Fund (RARF) /1October 2012 7
PANELIST DATA VALUES
Nominal Construction 30 Year Sky Harbor Total Non-Farm
Pers. Inc. Population Employment Mortgage Phoenix CPI Passenger Employment
Growth /1 Growth /1 Growth /1 Rate Growth/1 Traffic Growth Growth /1
FY 2013
Upper 10% 6.74% 2.14% 14.14% 4.74% 2.74% 4.26% 3.55%
Lower 10% 2.94% 0.99% 4.16% 3.66% 1.00% 1.25% 1.25%
Median 5.17% 1.63% 8.21% 4.19% 1.87% 2.93% 2.53%
FY 2014
Upper 10% 7.83% 2.69% 16.45% 5.18% 3.21% 4.38% 3.83%
Lower 10% 3.52% 1.30% 5.22% 3.84% 1.42% 1.31% 1.38%
Median 5.85% 2.06% 10.53% 4.53% 2.28% 2.95% 2.89%
FY 2015
Upper 10% 8.10% 3.02% 16.67% 5.74% 3.61% 4.57% 4.43%
Lower 10% 3.86% 1.44% 4.41% 4.08% 1.39% 0.93% 1.35%
Median 6.25% 2.34% 10.56% 4.91% 2.40% 2.78% 3.18%
FY 2016
Upper 10% 8.21% 3.01% 13.68% 6.44% 3.79% 4.49% 4.62%
Lower 10% 3.86% 1.42% 2.88% 4.58% 1.41% 0.73% 1.42%
Median 6.15% 2.34% 8.15% 5.55% 2.37% 2.64% 3.33%
FY 2017
Upper 10% 8.24% 2.97% 12.34% 7.13% 4.01% 4.47% 4.63%
Lower 10% 3.50% 1.33% 0.90% 4.94% 1.21% 0.50% 1.20%
Median 5.92% 2.22% 6.20% 5.94% 2.28% 2.45% 3.31%
FY 2021
Upper 10% 8.59% 3.10% 10.46% 7.78% 4.26% 5.03% 5.30%
Lower 10% 2.01% 0.79% -4.81% 5.10% 0.87% -0.18% 0.12%
Median 5.24% 1.96% 3.64% 6.37% 2.32% 2.26% 2.77%
FY 2026
Upper 10% 8.45% 3.00% 10.43% 7.91% 4.70% 5.06% 5.19%
Lower 10% 1.66% 0.67% -5.62% 5.15% 0.92% -0.31% -0.41%
Median 4.86% 1.74% 3.54% 6.45% 2.38% 2.19% 2.58%
All data in the above table are percentage growth rates except 30 year mortgage rate.
Personal income and 30 year mortage rate are nominal rates.
/1 Data for Maricopa County
October 2012 8
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Growth Rate
Fiscal Year
Median Lower 10% Upper 10%
Maricopa County Nominal Personal Income
Maricopa County Population
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Growth Rate
Fiscal Year
Median Lower 10% Upper 10%
October 2012 9
Maricopa County Construction Employment
30 Year Mortgage Rate
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Growth Rate
Fiscal Year
Median Lower 10% Upper 10%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Rate
Fiscal Year
Median Lower 10% Upper 10%
October 2012 10
Phoenix CPI
Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Growth Rate
Fiscal Year
Median Lower 10% Upper 10%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Growth Rate
Fiscal Year
Median Lower 10% Upper 10%
11
October 2012
Maricopa County Total Non-Farm Employment Growth
-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Growth RateFiscal YearMedianLower 10%Upper 10%12
October 2012
2013201420152016201720212026Panelist 1Upper 10%7.67%8.20%8.61%8.54%8.57%9.53%9.60%Lower 10%3.33%4.20%4.79%4.66%4.43%0.47%0.00%Median5.50%6.20%6.70%6.60%6.50%5.00%4.80%Panelist 2Upper 10%7.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.50%8.50%Lower 10%3.50%4.00%4.50%4.50%4.00%0.00%0.00%Median5.00%5.50%6.00%6.50%6.00%5.00%5.00%Panelist 3Upper 10%6.50%7.00%7.50%8.00%8.10%9.00%9.50%Lower 10%2.50%2.40%3.00%3.50%3.40%1.00%0.00%Median4.60%5.00%5.50%6.00%6.00%5.00%5.00%Panelist 4Upper 10%7.00%8.20%8.70%8.50%8.20%10.00%10.00%Lower 10%3.00%4.20%4.70%4.50%4.20%1.00%1.00%Median5.00%6.20%6.70%6.50%6.20%5.50%5.00%Panelist 5Upper 10%8.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%Lower 10%0.00%0.00%1.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%Median5.00%6.10%6.90%6.70%6.20%5.74%5.20%Panelist 6Upper 10%6.40%6.80%7.20%8.20%8.50%8.30%8.30%Lower 10%4.20%3.80%3.60%3.10%2.60%0.80%0.80%Median5.70%6.20%6.70%6.70%6.70%5.70%4.80%Panelist 7Upper 10%7.50%8.10%7.80%7.30%6.80%6.70%6.30%Lower 10%2.70%3.50%3.20%2.70%2.20%2.10%1.70%Median6.00%5.80%5.50%5.00%4.50%4.40%4.00%Panelist 8Upper 10%Not ProvidedLower 10%MedianPanelist 9Upper 10%Not ProvidedLower 10%Median5.00%6.00%6.00%5.00%5.00%4.00%4.00%Panelist 10Upper 10%5.00%7.10%7.90%8.50%7.70%8.00%6.90%Lower 10%2.50%4.10%4.20%4.40%4.20%3.70%2.90%Median4.76%5.30%6.50%6.40%6.20%5.80%5.40%Panelist 11Upper 10%6.80%7.50%8.00%7.50%7.50%6.50%5.80%Lower 10%3.50%4.50%4.80%5.00%4.50%4.50%3.50%Median5.50%6.20%6.80%6.60%6.10%5.50%5.00%Panelist 12Upper 10%6.00%9.00%9.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%Lower 10%4.00%5.00%5.50%6.00%5.00%4.00%3.50%Median5.00%6.00%7.00%7.50%7.00%6.00%5.00%Panelist 13Upper 10%6.00%6.50%6.50%7.00%7.50%7.50%7.50%Lower 10%4.00%4.00%4.00%3.00%2.50%1.50%1.50%Median5.10%5.50%5.00%4.50%4.50%4.50%4.00%Panelist 14Upper 10%7.00%7.50%8.00%9.00%10.00%11.00%11.00%Lower 10%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%Median5.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%All data in the above table are in nominal growth rates.Maricopa County Nominal Personal Income Growth 13
October 2012
2013201420152016201720212026Panelist 1Upper 10%1.7%2.4%2.7%2.8%2.7%3.3%3.0%Lower 10%0.7%1.4%1.5%1.6%1.5%0.5%0.2%Median1.2%1.9%2.1%2.2%2.1%1.9%1.6%Panelist 2Upper 10%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%Lower 10%1.2%1.5%1.7%1.7%1.5%1.0%0.5%Median1.6%1.8%2.0%2.2%2.1%2.0%1.5%Panelist 3Upper 10%2.2%2.4%2.7%2.8%2.9%3.0%3.4%Lower 10%0.9%1.4%1.5%1.5%1.4%0.5%0.2%Median1.6%1.7%2.0%2.2%2.1%1.8%1.6%Panelist 4Upper 10%2.2%2.6%2.8%2.8%2.7%2.8%2.8%Lower 10%1.0%1.4%1.5%1.3%1.2%0.5%0.5%Median1.6%2.0%2.1%2.2%2.3%1.9%1.7%Panelist 5Upper 10%2.0%2.4%2.8%3.0%3.0%3.2%3.2%Lower 10%1.0%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.0%0.0%Median1.7%2.0%2.1%2.2%2.1%1.9%1.6%Panelist 6Upper 10%2.0%2.5%2.9%3.2%3.2%3.0%2.7%Lower 10%0.8%1.1%1.4%1.5%1.3%0.4%0.2%Median1.5%1.9%2.4%2.6%2.7%2.2%1.7%Panelist 7Upper 10%2.2%2.7%2.9%2.8%2.8%2.7%2.7%Lower 10%0.8%1.3%1.5%1.4%1.4%1.3%1.3%Median1.5%2.0%2.2%2.1%2.1%2.0%2.0%Panelist 8Upper 10%2.0%2.4%2.7%2.8%2.9%3.3%3.1%Lower 10%0.8%1.2%1.5%1.6%1.7%0.5%0.2%Median1.4%1.8%2.1%2.2%2.3%1.9%1.7%Panelist 9 Upper 10%Not ProvidedLower 10%Median2.0%2.5%3.0%3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%Panelist 10Upper 10%2.3%2.7%3.0%3.1%3.4%3.5%3.3%Lower 10%0.8%0.8%1.1%1.2%1.3%1.0%1.0%Median1.7%2.1%2.5%2.5%2.6%2.1%1.8%Panelist 11Upper 10%2.5%3.0%3.5%3.5%3.0%2.8%2.6%Lower 10%1.5%1.8%2.0%1.7%1.6%1.5%1.5%Median2.0%2.5%3.0%2.5%2.2%2.1%2.2%Panelist 12Upper 10%2.0%3.0%4.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%Lower 10%1.0%2.0%2.0%1.7%1.5%1.0%1.0%Median1.5%2.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%2.0%2.0%Panelist 13Upper 10%2.3%3.0%2.9%2.8%2.7%3.3%3.0%Lower 10%1.1%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%Median1.7%2.2%2.1%2.1%2.0%1.9%1.6%Panelist 14Upper 10%2.5%3.2%3.4%3.4%3.2%3.5%3.3%Lower 10%1.3%1.5%1.6%1.7%1.4%1.0%1.0%Median1.8%2.0%2.2%2.3%2.0%1.8%1.8%All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates.Maricopa County Population Growth14
October 2012
2013201420152016201720212026Panelist 1Upper 10%7.8%17.2%18.7%16.0%16.6%16.0%16.0%Lower 10%3.2%8.8%7.3%4.0%1.4%-10.0%-10.0%Median5.5%13.0%13.0%10.0%9.0%3.0%3.0%Panelist 2Upper 10%15.0%20.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%7.5%7.5%Lower 10%5.0%7.0%8.0%7.0%0.0%-10.0%-10.0%Median10.0%13.0%13.0%10.0%5.0%2.5%2.5%Panelist 3Upper 10%12.0%15.0%18.0%16.0%15.0%17.0%18.0%Lower 10%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.5%0.0%-10.0%-18.0%Median8.0%9.0%10.0%8.0%7.0%4.0%3.5%Panelist 4Upper 10%19.0%20.0%19.0%16.0%12.0%15.0%15.0%Lower 10%5.0%8.0%7.0%4.0%0.0%-10.0%-10.0%Median12.0%14.0%13.0%10.0%8.0%3.0%3.0%Panelist 5Upper 10%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%7.0%6.0%Lower 10%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%Median5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%Panelist 6Upper 10%12.0%14.0%15.0%12.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%Lower 10%6.5%5.0%3.0%0.0%-0.5%-5.0%-5.0%Median9.0%10.5%10.0%8.0%5.0%2.5%2.5%Panelist 7Upper 10%7.2%8.2%6.5%6.5%7.3%7.3%8.1%Lower 10%-2.8%-1.8%-3.5%-3.5%-2.7%-2.7%-1.9%Median2.2%3.2%1.5%1.5%2.3%2.3%3.1%Panelist 8Upper 10%Not ProvidedLower 10%MedianPanelist 9 Upper 10%Not ProvidedLower 10%Median8.0%12.0%12.0%8.0%4.0%3.0%3.0%Panelist 10Upper 10%15.8%16.8%20.7%17.5%16.1%12.5%12.2%Lower 10%3.5%4.6%5.8%5.7%4.5%3.1%3.2%Median7.6%8.4%11.2%8.8%7.9%6.2%6.5%Panelist 11Upper 10%20.0%16.0%15.0%9.0%7.0%5.0%5.0%Lower 10%5.0%5.0%5.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%1.0%Median10.0%12.0%10.0%7.5%5.0%4.0%4.0%Panelist 12Upper 10%15.0%20.0%15.0%8.0%8.0%5.0%5.0%Lower 10%3.0%5.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%1.0%1.0%Median8.0%12.0%12.0%7.0%5.0%3.0%3.0%Panelist 13Upper 10%15.0%12.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%Lower 10%4.5%3.5%-3.5%-3.5%-3.5%-9.0%-9.0%Median5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%Panelist 14Upper 10%16.0%20.0%20.0%17.0%15.0%10.0%10.0%Lower 10%4.0%5.5%7.0%4.0%1.0%-5.0%-5.0%Median10.0%12.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%3.0%3.0%All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates.Maricopa County Construction Employment Growth15
October 2012
2013201420152016201720212026Panelist 1Upper 10%3.9%4.1%4.7%5.5%5.8%8.9%8.9%Lower 10%3.3%3.5%3.7%4.5%4.8%6.1%6.1%Median3.6%3.8%4.2%5.0%5.3%7.5%7.5%Panelist 2Upper 10%4.8%5.0%5.5%6.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%Lower 10%3.5%3.8%4.3%5.0%5.3%5.5%5.5%Median4.2%4.5%5.0%6.0%6.3%6.5%6.5%Panelist 3Upper 10%5.0%5.7%6.5%7.2%8.0%8.5%9.0%Lower 10%3.4%3.6%3.5%3.4%3.3%3.5%3.3%Median4.2%4.5%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.5%5.5%Panelist 4Upper 10%4.5%5.0%6.0%6.9%7.5%8.0%8.0%Lower 10%3.5%3.7%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%5.5%Median4.0%4.2%4.8%5.8%6.5%6.5%6.5%Panelist 5Upper 10%4.6%5.1%6.0%6.8%7.3%7.9%7.9%Lower 10%3.8%4.3%4.6%5.4%5.9%5.5%5.5%Median4.2%4.7%5.3%6.1%6.6%6.7%6.7%Panelist 6Upper 10%4.6%5.2%6.0%6.5%7.0%7.0%7.0%Lower 10%3.9%3.8%4.0%4.0%4.5%4.2%4.2%Median4.3%4.7%5.1%5.8%6.0%6.0%6.0%Panelist 7Upper 10%5.5%5.2%4.2%4.8%5.7%6.4%6.9%Lower 10%3.9%3.6%2.6%3.2%4.1%4.8%5.3%Median4.7%4.4%3.4%4.0%4.9%5.6%6.1%Panelist 8Upper 10%Not ProvidedLower 10%MedianPanelist 9 Upper 10%Not ProvidedLower 10%Median4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%Panelist 10Upper 10%5.0%5.4%6.1%6.4%6.5%6.8%7.3%Lower 10%4.4%4.7%5.2%5.3%5.4%5.2%4.9%Median4.8%5.1%5.8%6.1%6.1%6.4%6.4%Panelist 11Upper 10%4.6%5.1%6.0%6.8%7.3%7.9%7.9%Lower 10%3.8%4.3%4.6%5.4%5.9%5.5%5.5%Median4.2%4.7%5.3%6.1%6.6%6.7%6.7%Panelist 12Upper 10%5.5%5.5%6.0%6.0%7.0%7.5%7.5%Lower 10%4.0%4.0%4.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%Median4.5%5.0%5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%7.0%Panelist 13Upper 10%4.5%5.5%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%9.0%Lower 10%3.2%3.2%4.6%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%Median3.8%4.5%5.2%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%Panelist 14Upper 10%4.5%5.5%6.0%7.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%Lower 10%3.2%3.5%3.7%4.2%5.0%5.5%6.0%Median3.5%3.8%4.2%4.8%6.0%7.0%7.0%All data in the above table are in nominal rates.30 Year Mortgage 16
October 2012
2013201420152016201720212026Panelist 1Upper 10%2.6%2.9%3.4%3.9%3.9%4.4%4.4%Lower 10%1.0%1.5%1.8%2.1%1.9%0.6%0.6%Median1.8%2.2%2.6%3.0%2.9%2.5%2.5%Panelist 2Upper 10%2.5%3.2%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%Lower 10%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.2%1.0%1.0%Median2.0%2.2%2.5%2.5%2.2%2.2%2.2%Panelist 3Upper 10%2.1%2.6%2.7%3.3%3.9%4.2%6.0%Lower 10%0.9%1.0%0.8%0.7%0.6%0.2%-0.3%Median1.5%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.5%1.5%Panelist 4Upper 10%2.0%2.8%3.0%3.0%3.2%3.5%4.5%Lower 10%0.4%0.8%1.0%1.0%1.0%0.8%0.8%Median1.2%1.8%2.0%2.0%2.2%2.4%2.4%Panelist 5Upper 10%2.5%3.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%Lower 10%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%0.5%0.5%Median1.6%2.2%2.2%2.1%1.8%2.2%2.3%Panelist 6Upper 10%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.3%4.5%4.5%Lower 10%0.8%1.6%1.6%1.5%1.0%0.8%0.8%Median1.7%2.3%2.4%2.4%2.3%2.2%2.2%Panelist 7Upper 10%5.1%5.4%4.7%4.7%5.2%5.4%6.2%Lower 10%1.7%2.0%1.3%1.3%1.8%2.0%2.8%Median3.4%3.7%3.0%3.0%3.5%3.7%4.5%Panelist 8Upper 10%Not ProvidedLower 10%MedianPanelist 9 Upper 10%Not ProvidedLower 10%Median2.0%2.5%3.0%3.0%3.0%2.5%2.0%Panelist 10Upper 10%2.9%3.2%4.4%4.7%5.2%5.5%6.4%Lower 10%0.4%0.9%0.8%1.1%1.2%1.1%1.0%Median1.8%1.9%2.0%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.4%Panelist 11Upper 10%3.0%3.0%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%Lower 10%0.9%1.5%1.5%1.4%1.1%0.5%0.6%Median1.6%2.2%2.2%2.1%1.8%2.2%2.3%Panelist 12Upper 10%2.5%3.0%3.5%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%Lower 10%1.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%Median2.0%2.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%2.0%2.0%Panelist 13Upper 10%2.2%2.9%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%6.0%Lower 10%0.9%1.5%1.5%1.4%1.1%0.5%0.6%Median1.6%2.2%2.2%2.1%1.8%2.2%2.3%Panelist 14Upper 10%3.0%3.1%3.2%3.4%3.4%4.0%4.0%Lower 10%1.5%1.6%1.7%1.8%1.6%1.5%1.6%Median2.2%2.3%2.4%2.5%2.3%2.2%2.3%All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates.Phoenix CPI Growth17
October 2012
2013201420152016201720212026Panelist 1Upper 10%4.4%5.4%5.3%5.5%5.7%7.5%7.5%Lower 10%1.6%1.6%0.7%0.5%0.3%-1.5%-1.5%Median3.0%3.5%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%Panelist 2Upper 10%4.0%3.8%4.0%4.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%Lower 10%2.0%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%-1.0%-1.0%Median3.0%2.5%2.5%2.0%2.0%1.8%1.8%Panelist 3Upper 10%4.0%4.2%4.4%4.5%4.2%5.0%5.4%Lower 10%0.6%0.5%-0.2%-0.4%-0.8%-1.5%-2.0%Median2.5%2.5%2.0%2.0%2.0%1.5%1.5%Panelist 4Upper 10%4.2%4.0%3.8%3.8%3.6%5.0%5.0%Lower 10%1.4%1.0%0.6%0.6%0.0%-1.0%-1.0%Median2.8%2.5%2.0%2.0%1.8%1.8%1.8%Panelist 5Upper 10%4.2%3.9%4.0%3.8%3.6%4.9%4.9%Lower 10%1.4%1.1%0.6%0.4%0.2%-1.0%-1.0%Median2.8%2.5%2.3%2.1%1.9%1.9%2.0%Panelist 6Upper 10%3.5%3.5%4.0%4.0%3.5%3.5%3.5%Lower 10%1.5%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%Median2.8%2.5%2.3%2.2%2.2%2.0%2.0%Panelist 7Upper 10%Not ProvidedLower 10%MedianPanelist 8Upper 10%Not ProvidedLower 10%MedianPanelist 9Upper 10%Not ProvidedLower 10%Median3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%Panelist 10Upper 10%3.2%3.4%3.7%4.2%5.5%6.4%5.8%Lower 10%-2.5%-1.4%-0.1%0.8%0.9%1.2%1.4%Median1.5%1.8%2.0%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0%Panelist 11Upper 10%Not ProvidedLower 10%MedianPanelist 12Upper 10%4.0%4.5%4.5%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%Lower 10%2.0%3.0%2.5%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%Median3.0%4.0%3.5%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%Panelist 13Upper 10%4.2%3.9%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%Lower 10%1.4%1.1%-0.5%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%Median2.8%2.5%2.5%2.3%2.0%2.0%2.0%Panelist 14Upper 10%7.0%7.3%8.0%7.1%7.0%6.0%6.0%Lower 10%3.0%3.1%3.2%2.4%2.0%1.0%0.0%Median5.0%5.2%5.5%5.0%4.5%3.0%2.0%All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates.Sky Harbour Passenger Traffic Growth
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2021 2026
Panelist 1
Upper 10% 4.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.5% 5.7% 7.5% 7.5%
Lower 10% 1.6% 1.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% -1.5% -1.5%
Median 3.0% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Panelist 2
Upper 10% 4.0% 3.8% 4.0% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%
Lower 10% 2.0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% -1.0% -1.0%
Median 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8%
Panelist 3
Upper 10% 4.0% 4.2% 4.4% 4.5% 4.2% 5.0% 5.4%
Lower 10% 0.6% 0.5% -0.2% -0.4% -0.8% -1.5% -2.0%
Median 2.5% 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.5%
Panelist 4
Upper 10% 4.2% 4.0% 3.8% 3.8% 3.6% 5.0% 5.0%
Lower 10% 1.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% -1.0% -1.0%
Median 2.8% 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
Panelist 5
Upper 10% 4.2% 3.9% 4.0% 3.8% 3.6% 4.9% 4.9%
Lower 10% 1.4% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% -1.0% -1.0%
Median 2.8% 2.5% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0%
Panelist 6
Upper 10% 3.5% 3.5% 4.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
Lower 10% 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Median 2.8% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0%
Panelist 7
Upper 10% Not Provided
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 8
Upper 10% Not Provided
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 9
Upper 10% Not Provided
Lower 10%
Median 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Panelist 10
Upper 10% 3.2% 3.4% 3.7% 4.2% 5.5% 6.4% 5.8%
Lower 10% -2.5% -1.4% -0.1% 0.8% 0.9% 1.2% 1.4%
Median 1.5% 1.8% 2.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0%
Panelist 11
Upper 10% Not Provided
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 12
Upper 10% 4.0% 4.5% 4.5% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Lower 10% 2.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Median 3.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Panelist 13
Upper 10% 4.2% 3.9% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Lower 10% 1.4% 1.1% -0.5% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0%
Median 2.8% 2.5% 2.5% 2.3% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Panelist 14
Upper 10% 7.0% 7.3% 8.0% 7.1% 7.0% 6.0% 6.0%
Lower 10% 3.0% 3.1% 3.2% 2.4% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Median 5.0% 5.2% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 3.0% 2.0%
All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates.
Sky Harbour Passenger Traffic Growth18
October 2012
2013201420152016201720212026Panelist 1Upper 10%3.5%3.8%4.6%5.3%5.2%7.4%7.1%Lower 10%1.1%1.6%1.8%2.1%2.0%-1.4%-1.5%Median2.3%2.7%3.2%3.7%3.6%3.0%2.8%Panelist 2Upper 10%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%Lower 10%1.5%2.0%2.0%2.0%1.5%-1.0%-1.5%Median2.5%3.0%3.0%3.5%3.5%2.5%2.5%Panelist 3Upper 10%3.2%3.7%4.5%4.6%4.6%4.9%5.5%Lower 10%1.0%1.5%1.6%1.5%1.3%0.7%-0.5%Median2.2%2.4%3.0%3.2%3.3%3.1%3.1%Panelist 4Upper 10%4.0%4.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%8.0%8.0%Lower 10%1.2%1.8%2.0%2.0%1.8%-2.0%-2.0%Median2.4%3.0%3.5%3.5%3.4%2.8%2.7%Panelist 5Upper 10%2.8%3.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.0%3.5%Lower 10%0.7%0.9%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.0%0.5%Median2.2%2.4%3.0%3.0%3.0%2.5%2.0%Panelist 6Upper 10%3.1%3.5%3.8%4.4%4.4%4.2%3.2%Lower 10%1.8%1.3%0.8%0.5%0.3%0.0%-0.5%Median2.7%3.2%3.2%3.4%3.6%2.2%1.8%Panelist 7Upper 10%5.4%4.4%4.7%4.7%4.5%4.5%4.3%Lower 10%1.0%0.0%-0.7%-0.7%-0.9%-0.9%-1.1%Median4.2%3.2%2.5%2.5%2.3%2.3%2.1%Panelist 8Upper 10%Not ProvidedLower 10%MedianPanelist 9 Upper 10%Not ProvidedLower 10%Median2.5%3.5%4.0%3.5%3.0%2.0%2.0%Panelist 10Upper 10%2.5%3.2%3.5%4.1%4.5%6.8%6.6%Lower 10%0.9%1.2%1.5%1.7%1.8%1.0%-0.7%Median1.8%2.6%2.9%3.4%3.8%4.1%4.7%Panelist 11Upper 10%3.5%4.0%4.0%4.2%4.0%3.5%3.5%Lower 10%1.5%1.8%2.2%2.5%2.0%1.8%1.8%Median2.6%3.2%3.5%3.6%3.4%3.0%2.7%Panelist 12Upper 10%3.5%3.5%4.0%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%Lower 10%2.0%N/PN/P3.0%2.0%2.0%1.0%Median2.5%3.0%3.5%3.5%3.4%3.0%2.5%Panelist 13Upper 10%3.6%4.2%5.0%5.0%4.9%5.8%6.1%Lower 10%1.2%1.8%0.7%-1.0%-1.0%-1.3%-1.4%Median2.8%3.0%3.2%3.3%3.3%2.6%2.3%Panelist 14Upper 10%4.0%4.2%5.0%5.2%5.4%6.0%6.0%Lower 10%1.1%1.3%1.5%2.0%2.1%1.5%1.0%Median2.2%2.4%2.8%3.2%3.5%2.8%2.4%All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates.N/P: Not ProvidedMaricopa County Total Non-Farm Employment Growth19
October 2012
HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)1971198115.3%19914.8%20018.0%20113.0%1972198210.1%19925.6%20024.5%2012*4.0%197319838.4%19936.7%20034.4%2013197414.9%198412.8%19949.1%20047.1%201419759.7%198513.1%199510.4%200510.0%201519769.8%198610.7%19969.7%200610.7%2016197713.5%19879.0%19979.5%20077.7%2017197816.7%19888.0%199810.1%20083.8%2018197919.5%19897.4%19998.8%2009-1.7%2019198017.7%19905.9%200010.8%20102.0%2020FY 1973-2010 data from BEA; FY 2011-2013 data from Phoenix Blue Chip. FY 2014-2026, ADOT staff estimates.Data include inflation rate.HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHEDHISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSISHistoricalStd.PeriodMin.Max.MeanDev.LowerUpper5 Years-1.7%4.0%2.2%2.3%-0.2%3.9%10 Years-1.7%10.7%5.1%3.8%1.6%10.1%Full Period-1.7%19.5%9.0%4.4%3.9%15.0%HISTORICAL DATAMARICOPA COUNTY NOMINAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH(Annual Percent Change)80% Range-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%19741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012Percent ChangeFiscal Year20
October 2012
HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)197119813.0%19913.1%20012.6%20110.5%197219822.9%19923.4%20022.8%2012*1.6%197319833.2%19933.8%20032.8%201319745.2%19844.4%19944.9%20043.4%201419753.0%19855.3%19955.0%20053.2%201519762.1%19864.2%19964.0%20062.4%201619773.9%19874.5%19973.8%20072.4%201719784.4%19882.9%19983.7%20081.5%201819794.9%19892.6%19993.3%20090.3%201919804.4%19901.4%20002.9%20100.1%2020FY 1974-1999 from U. S. Census Bureau. FY 2000-2011 from ADOA Office of Employment and Population Statistics. FY 2012*-2013 based on Phoenix Blue Chip 2nd quarter 2012 growth rate estimates. FY 2014-2015 from ADOT staff. FY 2016-2026 based on DES/ADOC, Arizona Population Projections FY 2006-2055 growth rates dated March 31, 2006.HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHEDHISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSISHistoricalStd.80%RangePeriodMin.Max.MeanDev.LowerUpper5 Years0.1%1.6%0.8%0.7%0.2%1.6%10 Years0.1%3.4%1.8%1.2%0.3%3.2%Full Period0.1%5.3%3.2%1.3%1.5%4.9%HISTORICAL DATAMARICOPA COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH(Annual Percent Change)-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%19741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012Percent ChangeFiscal Year21
October 2012
HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)19711981-4.9%1991-5.6%2001-2.8%2011-7.3%19721982-4.5%1992-1.4%20021.2%2012*4.8%197319836.1%19937.0%20030.5%201319740.2%198422.3%199414.5%20046.1%20141975-16.4%198520.0%199515.4%200512.8%20151976-12.4%19868.8%19969.6%200612.6%2016197713.7%1987-4.0%19976.0%20071.6%2017197834.0%1988-7.3%19988.1%2008-11.6%2018197929.7%1989-7.0%19999.3%2009-23.8%201919805.5%1990-7.1%2000-1.0%2010-24.2%2020FY 2011and prior from BEA. FY 2012 and after based on ADOT staff estimates.HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHEDHISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSISHistoricalStd.80%RangePeriodMin.Max.MeanDev.LowerUpper5 Years-24.2%4.8%-12.4%12.2%-24.0%-0.1%10 Years-24.2%12.8%-2.9%13.5%-23.8%12.6%Full Period-24.2%34.0%2.8%12.7%-11.8%16.4%HISTORICAL DATAMARICOPA COUNTY CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT GROWTH(Annual Percent Change)-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%19741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012Percent ChangeFiscal Year22
October 2012
HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)1971198114.6%19919.8%20017.5%20114.6%19727.5%198217.3%19928.8%20026.9%2012*4.3%19737.5%198314.0%19937.9%20035.9%201319748.6%198413.6%19947.5%20045.9%201419759.4%198513.5%19958.6%20055.8%201519768.9%198611.2%19967.6%20066.2%201619778.8%19879.8%19977.9%20076.3%201719789.1%198810.5%19987.2%20086.2%2018197910.3%198910.6%19996.9%20095.6%2019198012.9%199010.1%20008.1%20104.9%2020FY 1973-2011 data from Federal Reserve. FY 2012*-2026 based on Global Insight, 2nd Quarter 2012, Trend Forecast.* EstimateHISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHEDHISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSISHistoricalStd.80%RangePeriodMin.Max.MeanDev.LowerUpper5 Years4.3%6.2%5.1%0.8%4.4%5.9%10 Years4.3%6.3%5.6%0.7%4.6%6.2%Full Period4.3%17.3%8.7%2.9%5.8%13.5%30 YEAR MORTGAGE RATEHISTORICAL DATA0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012Percent ChangeFiscal Year23
October 2012
HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)1971198112.5%19914.1%20012.4%20112.9%197219827.7%19922.7%20021.0%2012*2.0%197319833.4%19933.4%20031.9%201319747.6%19843.7%19943.7%20042.3%2014197515.3%19855.4%19954.2%20051.6%2015197612.2%19863.1%19965.1%20062.9%201619776.5%19872.7%19974.8%20072.5%201719788.9%19884.1%19984.0%20084.3%2018197912.4%19894.5%19993.6%2009-0.3%2019198014.9%19905.2%20003.2%20101.5%2020FY 1974-1999 Phoenix CPI data from ASU. FY 2000-2001 regressed from U.S CPI and FY 2002-2011 data derived from Phoenix Mesa CPI (BLS). FY 2012* -2026 estimates regressed from U.S. CPI based on Global Insight, 2nd Quarter 2012, Trend Forecast. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHEDHISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSISHistoricalStd.80%RangePeriodMin.Max.MeanDev.LowerUpper5 Years-0.3%4.3%2.1%1.7%0.4%3.7%10 Years-0.3%4.3%2.2%1.2%1.3%3.1%Full Period-0.3%15.3%5.0%3.8%1.8%12.2%HISTORICAL DATAPHOENIX CPI GROWTH RATE(Annual Percent Change)00.020.040.060.080.10.120.140.160.181974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010Percent ChangeFiscal Year-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%19741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012Percent Year24
October 2012
HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)19711981-2.8%19913.4%20012.7%20112.4%19728.4%19826.8%19920.9%2002-0.7%2012*3.0%197312.2%198313.9%19933.3%20032.8%201319748.4%198420.6%19947.7%20045.4%201419752.4%198524.8%19958.6%20054.9%201519765.7%198619.6%19968.9%20062.4%2016197712.2%198714.8%19974.8%20071.2%2017197816.1%198810.9%19982.2%2008-1.8%2018197918.7%19898.1%19994.6%2009-5.3%201919805.0%19906.4%20006.5%2010-1.7%2020FY 1972-2011 data obtained from Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport.FY 2012*-2026 estimates are from Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport staff.HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHEDHISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSISHistoricalStd.80%RangePeriodMin.Max.MeanDev.LowerUpper5 Years-5.3%3.0%-0.7%3.4%-3.9%2.7%10 Years-5.3%5.4%1.3%3.3%-2.2%5.0%Full Period-5.3%24.8%6.8%6.7%-0.7%16.1%HISTORICAL DATASKY HARBOR PASSENGER TRAFFIC GROWTH(Annual Percent Change)00.020.040.060.080.10.120.140.160.181975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005Percent ChangeFiscal Year-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012Percent Year25
October 2012
HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)197119813.4%19910.9%20012.4%2011-0.3%19728.5%19821.5%19920.4%20020.6%2012*1.9%197311.6%19832.9%19933.0%20030.7%201319747.6%19848.6%19945.8%20042.7%201419750.0%198510.2%19956.9%20055.1%201519760.5%19866.9%19967.2%20065.8%201619776.9%19874.1%19976.3%20073.5%2017197811.1%19884.7%19985.4%2008-0.4%2018197911.8%19894.1%19995.0%2009-5.2%201919806.9%19902.3%20004.0%2010-5.1%2020FY 1972-2011 data from Bureau of Labor Statistics. ADOA, Arizona's Workforce Report, May 4, 2012 for FY 2012* and 2013.FY 2014-2026 ADOT staff estimates.HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHEDHISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSISHistoricalStd.80%RangePeriodMin.Max.MeanDev.LowerUpper5 Years-5.2%1.9%-1.8%3.2%-5.1%1.0%10 Years-5.2%5.8%0.9%3.8%-5.1%5.2%Full Period-5.2%11.8%4.2%3.9%0.0%8.6%HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY TOTAL NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT GROWTH(Annual Percent Change)00.020.040.060.080.10.120.140.160.181975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005Percent Year-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012Percent ChangeFiscal Year