Blue chip economic forecast: western: what blue chip economists are saying about the western states: July/August 2006 Volume 20, Number 6 |
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JULY/AUGUST 2006 Volume 20, Number 6
Cautious CA analysts were right about '05 job growth
CONSENSUS FORECASTS AND ACTUAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT GROWTH FOR WESTERN STATES: 2005
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
State California Colorado New Mexico Washington Texas Oregon Arizona Utah Nevada Idaho
Forecast 1.7% 2.3 2.0 2.4 1.9 2.1 3.9 2.5 4.1 2.0
Actual 1.8% 2.1 2.4 2.9 2.5 3.1 5.3 4.1 6.2 4.2
Difference 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.2
Source: Forecasts from Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast, January/February 2005; actual employment growth from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
At the beginning of last year, the California forecasting panel projected the Golden State would record the weakest job growth in the West. Their pessimism was justified, as employment in California grew by 1.8 percent in 2005. On the bright side, this dour outlook earned the California forecasters top honors for producing the most accurate forecast of nonfarm employment growth among Western states in 2005. The California job growth forecast missed the mark by a scant 0.1 percent point [see table]. The Colorado panel was runner-up with a miss of 0.2 percent. With the exception of Colorado, analysts in the West underestimated the strength of labor markets in 2005. Job growth turned out to be stronger than expected, with every Western state exceeding the national nonfarm growth rate of 1.5 percent.
CO forecaster closest to the mark for fifth straight year
There were two perfect state forecasts for 2005 job growth among the 75 analysts who contribute to the Western Blue Chip newsletter. Wilson Kendall of the private Center for Business and Economic Forecasting correctly foresaw Colorado's 2.1 percent employment increase for 2005. Remarkably, this was his fifth consecutive year to post the most accurate Colorado forecast, among a strong state cohort of experts. The other bulls-eye was scored by the flawless Phantom Forecaster of the California organization that prefers to remain listed only as "anonymous." Forecast panel members with the best individual forecasts for each state are shown in the accompanying table. In addition to Colorado's Wilson Kendall, repeat winners include the ever-prescient Keith Schwer (University of Nevada Las Vegas, fourth consecutive year) and the Wells Fargo team of Sung Won Sohn and Scott Anderson (Washington, second consecutive year). -- Lee McPheters
MOST ACCURATE FORECASTERS BY STATE: 2005
State Arizona California Colorado Idaho Nevada New Mexico Oregon Oregon Texas Utah Washington Organization VisionEcon Anonymous Center for Business & Economic Forecasting 5 Wells Fargo University of Nevada, Las Vegas 4 University of New Mexico Conerly Consulting Wells Fargo Wells Fargo Wells Fargo Wells Fargo 2 Panelists Debra Roubik Wilson Kendall Scott Anderson Sung Wun Sohn Keith Schwer Larry Waldman Bill Conerly Scott Anderson Sung Wun Sohn Scott Anderson Sung Wun Sohn Kelly Matthews Scott Anderson Sung Wun Sohn
Bold print designates perfect forecast 2 Second consecutive year of forecast accuracy listing 4 Fourth consecutive year of forecast accuracy listing
U.S. JOB GROWTH
REAL GROSS STATE PRODUCT Percent Change, 2005 vs. 2004
1 Arizona 2 Nevada 3 Florida 4 Idaho 5 Oregon 6 Utah 7 Virginia 8 Montana 9 Wyoming 10 Hawaii 11 North Dakota 12 Georgia 13 New Mexico 14 New Hampshire 15 California 16 Texas 17 Colorado 18 Kansas 19 North Carolina 20 Connecticut 21 Maryland 22 Washington United States 23 South Dakota 24 South Carolina 25 New York 26 West Virginia 27 Alabama 28 Vermont 29 Oklahoma 30 Massachusetts 31 Arkansas 32 Kentucky 33 Missouri 34 New Jersey 35 Pennsylvania 36 Illinois 37 Rhode Island 38 Wisconsin 39 Iowa 40 Nebraska 41 Tennessee 42 Maine 43 Delaware 44 Minnesota 45 Mississippi 46 Indiana 47 Ohio 48 Alaska 49 Michigan 50 Louisiana -1.6
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
8.7 8.2 7.8 7.5 6.7 5.8 5.6 5.4 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.1
% Change: April 2006 vs. April 2005
Nonfarm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Goods-Producing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Construction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Manufacturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Service-Providing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Financial Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Professional & Business Services . . . Educational & Health Services . . . . . Leisure & Hospitality . . . . . . . . . . . . Government . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.3 3.7 0.0 1.4 1.1 0.6 -0.1 2.6 2.5 2.3 1.7 0.7
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. REAL ESTATE
Residential Building Permits April 2006 vs. April 2005 Total Residential 164,884 192,245 -14.2 Singlefamily 129,393 151,654 -14.7 Multifamily 35,491 40,591 -12.6
2006 2005 %
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
U.S. FORECASTS
Percent Change 2006 Real GDP (Chain) . . . . . . CPI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . GDP Deflator (Chain) . . . 3.3 3.2 2.9 2007 2.7 1.5 1.7
Source: "U.S. Economic Outlook," Global Insight, May 2006
2
WESTERN BLUE CHIP
JULY/AUGUST 2006
4 6 .. . " 3 : " 3 : .
WESTERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC FORECAST
2006 Annual Percent Change, 2006 from 2005 Current $ Real Personal Personal Income Income
8.3 6.0 6.0 6.6 8.1 5.5 6.1 6.3 6.9 6.3 5.9 3.6 3.6 4.1 5.6 3.1 3.7 3.9 4.5 3.9
2007 Annual Percent Change, 2007 from 2006 Current $ Real Personal Personal Income Income
7.4 5.4 6.1 6.0 7.5 5.4 5.6 6.0 6.5 6.3 5.7 3.7 4.4 4.3 5.7 3.6 3.8 4.3 4.8 4.5
State:
C Arizona California I olorado
daho Nevada Oew Mexico T regon Uexas tah Washington
Wage & Salary Empl.
4.6 1.6 2.2 2.7 4.6 2.1 2.7 2.1 3.4 2.9
Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits
3.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 3.8 1.5 1.3 1.8 2.2 1.6 (7.0) (9.6) (5.1) (4.3) 1.2 0.8 (2.7) (2.7) 3.6 (9.1)
Wage & Salary Empl.
3.8 1.3 2.0 2.3 4.1 2.2 2.0 1.9 3.1 2.3
Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits
2.9 1.4 1.6 1.6 3.6 1.6 1.3 1.7 2.1 1.6 (5.0) (5.0) (4.3) (3.4) 0.2 (2.2) (2.0) (3.2) 2.5 (7.4)
= Increase in consensus forecast
= Decrease in consensus forecast
Forecast notes from the Western region...
Econom ic performance in Texas is closely mirroring that of the nation at the present time. The Texas, Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston unemployment rates are nearly equal to the U.S. average and have been trending together for some time. On the political front, the Texas legislat ure finally came up with a tax restructuring package that will cut ad valorem levies for public schools but impose a 3 percent gross receipts tax on all businesses, both incorporated and unincorporated. -- Bernard Weinstein Universit y of North Texas Denton, Texas The New Mexico economy continues to thrive, led by health care and social assistance, construction, oil and gas mining and government. These same sectors, along with a surge in manufacturing, will keep New Mexico on a solid growth path through 2007. -- Larry Waldman Universit y of New Mexico Albuquerque, New Mexico Texas continues to show sustained job growth and economic development success. Recent tax reforms will enhance the competitiveness of the state. -- M. Ray Perryman Perr yman Group Waco, Texas JULY/AUGUST 2006 I n June, the Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council increased its general fund revenue forecast for the 2005-07 and 2007-09 biennia by nearly $1 billion. The quarterly forecast update reflects a slightly stronger U.S. economic outlook as well as better-than-expected job growth in Washington during the first four months of 2006. But the main reason for the large revenue forecast increase is very strong revenue collection experience during the four months since the last forecast was released. Once again, const r uct ion and real estate related revenue sources accounted for the majority of the forecast increase. -- Bret Bertolin Washington Economic and Revenue Forecast Council Olympia, Washington Improving Oregon economic growth in 2004 gave way to near-boom conditions during the past 15 months. Slightly less robust performance is expected in 2006 and 2007. A reason? Labor scarcity will limit job gains. At the same time, well diversified growth bodes well for future performance. Oregon is doing very well. -- Jeff Thredgold Thredgold Economic Associates Salt Lake City, Utah Califor n ia's resale housing market has definitely softened, with more "price reduced" stickers on for sale signs. A sector to watch is the high-rise condo market and "live/work" lofts, as entrepreneurial developers have rushed into this market without assessing its depth. However, the news in other industries remains good, with international trade, technology and tourism continuing to set the pace. The movie industry is also encouraged by the year-to-year gains in both domestic and international box office receipts. Anywhere you go, business people are fretting about finding qualified workers. -- Jack Kyser Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation Los Angeles, California Af ter four years of comparatively low net migration, Colorado will once again become a more attractive place to relocate as the labor market gains additional strength. As a result, net migration will increase, and statewide population will grow at a rate of 1.5 percent this year compared to 1.0 percent for the nation. Net migration will account for about 45 percent of the population increase projected for 2006. -- Business Research Division Leeds School of Business Universit y of Colorado at Boulder Boulder, Colorado
WESTERN BLUE CHIP
3
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WESTERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC FORECAST
Methodology
The consensus forecasting approach used in the Western Blue Chip was inspired by Robert J. Eggert of Sedona, Arizona. Eggert popularized consensus forecasting with the introduction of his widely cited newsletter on the national economy, Blue Chip Economic Indicators. This approach has been consistently shown to be more accurate than projections from an individual forecaster. Consensus panelists for the Western Blue Chip are drawn from leading firms, universities and state agencies across the West. Panelists are contacted during the final week of each month and forecast data are compiled by telephone and fax transmission until the last day of the month. Thus, data reported in the forecast tables for a given month are current as of the first day of that month. The consensus for each state is the mean of all forecasts shown in the table. Data are expressed as annual percentage changes relative to the annual average value for each indicator during the previous year. Since not all panelists revise their forecasts each month, changes in the consensus may result from revisions by an individual contributor.
ARIZONA
2006 Annual Percent Change, 2006 from 2005
Current $ Personal Income 7.6 8.5 8.7 8.6 8.4 7.9 8.6 8.0 8.6 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.6 7.7 9.4 8.0 8.3 8.3 8.3 Retail Sales 7.1 9.0 7.6 8.4 8.0 7.4 7.8 9.0 8.0 9.0 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.9 7.2 7.6 8.3 7.5 7.9 7.9 Wage & Salary Empl. 4.0 4.0 4.9 5.5 4.8 4.2 4.3 5.0 5.4 4.4 4.6 4.4 3.9 5.0 3.9 4.9 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.5 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 3.0 (7.0) 3.0 (5.0) 3.0 (8.0) 2.9 3.2 (12.0) 3.0 (5.0) 3.3 (6.3) 3.3 (10.0) 3.2 (7.0) 3.0 (7.0) 3.2 (8.0) 2.9 3.2 2.8 3.3 3.4 2.9 3.1 3.1 (7.0) (9.0) (7.5) (7.6) 0.0 (6.0) (7.0) (6.5)
2007 Annual Percent Change, 2007 from 2006
Current $ Personal Income 7.2 7.8 6.8 7.2 7.8 7.5 8.1 7.5 7.7 7.4 7.6 7.7 8.5 7.5 7.1 6.2 6.1 7.8 7.4 7.5 Retail Sales 6.5 7.5 6.8 7.4 7.5 6.9 7.5 7.5 6.8 6.5 7.3 7.1 6.8 6.5 6.9 5.5 6.7 6.0 6.9 6.9 Wage & Salary Empl. 3.2 3.7 4.2 4.4 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.2 3.7 4.2 4.0 3.6 4.0 3.6 2.5 2.9 3.7 3.8 3.8 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 2.9 (8.0) 2.8 (4.0) 2.8 (7.0) 3.0 3.1 (5.0) 2.9 (5.0) 3.1 (6.0) 3.0 (5.0) 3.0 (2.0) 3.0 (3.0) 3.1 (8.0) 2.7 3.0 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.9 0.0 (4.0) (5.0) (8.7) (2.0) (7.0) (5.0) (4.0)
Source: Arizona Department of Commerce Arizona Public Service ASU - Bank One EOC Department of Economic Security ECON-LINC EconLit LLC Eggert Economic Enterprises Inc. Elliott D. Pollack & Co. H. C. Reardon Economics Joint Legislative Budget Committee The Maguire Company Metropolitan West Asset Management NAU BBER Salt River Project Stellar Capital Management UA Eller College VisionEcon Wells Fargo & Co. Consensus Forecast -- This Month -- Last Month
CALIFORNIA
2006 Annual Percent Change, 2006 from 2005
Current $ Personal Source: Income Anonymous 6.2 California State University, Long Beach * 6.3 Chapman University 6.5 L.A. County Economic Development Corp. 6.1 Legislative Analyst's Office 5.7 UCLA Business Forecasting Project 6.1 University of the Pacific 6.0 Wells Fargo & Co. 5.1 Consensus Forecast -- This Month 6.0 -- Last Month 5.7
*This forecast is for Southern California only
2007 Annual Percent Change, 2007 from 2006
Current $ Personal Income 5.8 4.9 5.1 5.9 5.5 4.8 5.6 4.9 5.4 5.4 Retail Sales 5.3 5.7 4.0 5.5 5.6 4.0 3.3 4.7 4.6 4.5 Wage & Salary Empl. 1.5 1.8 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.7 (1.2) 2.0 (0.8) 1.4 (8.1) 1.2 (0.3) 1.4 (1.0) 1.1 (8.8) 1.6 (5.5) 1.1 (10.0) 1.4 (5.0) 1.5 (4.7)
Retail Sales 5.1 6.1 5.3 5.9 5.2 4.8 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.1
Wage & Salary Empl. 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5
Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.7 (12.0) 1.5 (0.7) 1.5 (10.3) 1.2 (5.0) 1.4 (10.0) 1.2 (8.0) 1.6 (13.8) 0.9 (8.0) 1.4 (9.6) 1.5 (9.9)
4
WESTERN BLUE CHIP
JULY/AUGUST 2006
WESTERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC FORECAST
COLORADO
2006 Annual Percent Change, 2006 from 2005
Current $ Personal Income 5.4 6.0 6.7 5.5 6.3 6.0 6.0 5.8 6.0 5.8 Retail Sales 5.3 5.5 5.5 4.8 5.5 5.7 4.7 5.4 5.3 5.2 Wage & Salary Empl. 1.8 2.2 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.0 2.2 2.2 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 (8.1) (10.0) (9.3) (1.0) (7.8) (1.0) (2.0) (1.3) (5.1) (3.8)
2007 Annual Percent Change, 2007 from 2006
Current $ Personal Income 5.0 6.5 6.5 5.8 6.6 6.1 5.4 7.1 6.1 6.1 Retail Sales (1.5) 5.8 5.1 5.1 5.9 5.0 4.3 6.0 4.5 4.6 Wage & Salary Empl. 0.0 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.2 1.7 2.6 2.0 2.1 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 (10.1) (5.0) (7.0) (0.5) (2.9) (1.0) (5.0) (2.5) (4.3) (3.2)
Source: The Adams Group, Inc. Ctr. for Business and Econ. Forecasting Colorado Legislative Council David Hemley Office of State Planning and Budgeting University of Colorado Wells Fargo & Co. Xcel Energy Consensus Forecast -- This Month -- Last Month
IDAHO
2006 Annual Percent Change, 2006 from 2005
Source: Idaho Div. of Financial Management Idaho Economics Thredgold Economic Associates Wells Fargo & Co. Consensus Forecast -- This Month -- Last Month Current $ Personal Income 7.1 6.6 5.5 7.0 6.6 6.6 Retail Sales Wage & Salary Empl. 2.1 2.5 2.5 3.6 2.7 2.7 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 (13.0) (5.0) (4.0) 5.0 (4.3) (4.3)
2007 Annual Percent Change, 2007 from 2006
Current $ Personal Income 6.2 6.3 5.0 6.5 6.0 6.0 Retail Sales Wage & Popu- Single-family Salary lation Housing Empl. Growth Permits 2.0 2.1 2.2 3.0 2.3 2.3 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.6 (0.7) (8.0) (5.0) 0.0 (3.4) (3.4)
5.0 5.7 5.4 5.4
4.5 5.5 5.0 5.0
NEVADA
2006 Annual Percent Change, 2006 from 2005
Current $ Gross Wage & Personal Gaming Salary Income Revenues Empl. 9.2 7.5 8.5 8.6 7.4 7.3 8.1 8.1 5.4 5.0 7.4 5.1 6.2 5.8 5.8 5.4 4.5 4.0 4.9 4.6 4.3 4.6 4.6 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 3.0 4.0 3.7 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.8 3.8 0.0 0.0 1.4 3.6 1.0 1.2 1.2
2007 Annual Percent Change, 2007 from 2006
Current $ Gross Wage & Personal Gaming Salary Income Revenues Empl. 8.8 7.0 6.5 8.4 7.2 6.8 7.5 7.5 5.2 5.0 5.8 5.0 5.6 5.3 5.4 5.2 4.0 2.8 4.8 4.5 3.2 4.1 4.1 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 2.9 4.0 3.0 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.6 1.5 (4.5) 1.2 4.8 (2.1) 0.2 0.2
Source: Dept. of Empl., Training, and Rehab. Restrepo Consulting Group, LLC Thredgold Economic Associates Southwest Gas Univ. of Nevada at Las Vegas CBER Wells Fargo & Co. Consensus Forecast -- This Month -- Last Month
JULY/AUGUST 2006
WESTERN BLUE CHIP
5
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WESTERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC FORECAST
NEW MEXICO
2006 Annual Percent Change, 2006 from 2005
Current $ Mfg. Wage & Personal Employ- Salary Income ment Empl. 5.3 0.9 1.8 1.3 2.0 5.2 1.0 1.6 5.2 1.0 1.9 6.1 4.9 2.6 5.7 1.8 2.8 5.5 1.8 2.1 5.5 2.0 2.1 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.4 1.0
2007 Annual Percent Change, 2007 from 2006
Current $ Mfg. Personal EmployIncome ment 5.2 0.9 Wage & Salary Empl. 2.1 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.5 (1.2)
Source: Eastern New Mexico University New Mexico Department of Labor New Mexico State Univ. CEMAF Public Service New Mexico University of New Mexico BBER Wells Fargo & Co. Consensus Forecast -- This Month -- Last Month
1.5 1.7 1.5 1.5
(1.0) 7.3 (4.1) 0.8 (0.9)
5.1 5.5 5.6 5.4 5.3
0.8 4.9 1.7 2.1 1.9
2.0 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.1
1.4 1.8 1.6 1.6
(1.8) (1.4) (4.4) (2.2) (2.7)
OREGON
2006 Annual Percent Change, 2006 from 2005
Current $ Mfg. Personal EmployIncome ment 6.7 5.7 6.5 6.3 6.2 5.8 6.2 5.4 6.1 6.1 3.2 2.2 2.8 1.2 2.3 1.2 2.5 0.9 2.0 2.1 Wage & Salary Empl. 3.1 2.6 3.1 2.3 2.6 2.4 3.0 2.3 2.7 2.7 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 (11.4) 3.5 (8.3) 0.0 1.9 3.5 (7.0) (3.7) (2.7) (2.7)
2007 Annual Percent Change, 2007 from 2006
Current $ Mfg. Personal EmployIncome ment 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.4 5.4 5.8 5.4 5.6 5.6 0.0 1.6 (0.3) 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.7 0.7 Wage & Salary Empl. 1.9 2.4 1.4 1.9 1.7 2.2 2.3 1.9 2.0 2.0 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 (10.0) 7.5 (2.8) (5.0) 0.9 (2.0) 0.0 (4.3) (2.0) (1.9)
Source: Conerly Consulting Forefront Economics Oregon Executive Department Portland General Electric Rhodes Econometrics Thredgold Economic Associates U.S. Bancorp Wells Fargo & Co. Consensus Forecast -- This Month -- Last Month
TEXAS
2006 Annual Percent Change, 2006 from 2005
Current $ Personal Income 6.2 6.7 5.3 6.8 7.1 5.8 5.6 6.4 7.2 6.3 6.4 Retail Sales 6.0 6.4 5.6 6.8 8.1 5.4 5.5 6.1 5.7 6.2 6.2 Wage & Salary Empl. 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.3 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.1 2.1 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.7 1.8 1.7 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.0 (1.0) 0.8 (4.1) (6.4) (9.8) 0.4 (1.5) (4.0) (2.7) (2.6)
2007 Annual Percent Change, 2007 from 2006
Current $ Personal Income 5.9 6.5 5.8 7.0 6.2 5.4 5.5 6.0 5.7 6.0 6.1 Retail Sales 5.7 6.6 5.7 7.0 6.0 5.4 5.4 5.9 5.3 5.9 6.0 Wage & Salary Empl. 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.9 1.9 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 (2.0) 2.0 0.0 (5.2) (13.8) (3.9) 0.3 (1.2) (5.0) (3.2) (3.4)
Source: Econoclast Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas David Hemley Perryman Group TX State Comptroller of Public Accounts University of Houston - CPP University of North Texas University of Texas at El Paso Wells Fargo & Co. Consensus Forecast -- This Month -- Last Month
6
WESTERN BLUE CHIP
JULY/AUGUST 2006
WESTERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC FORECAST
UTAH
2006 Annual Percent Change, 2006 from 2005
Current $ Personal Source: Income Pacificorp 6.0 Thredgold Economic Associates 6.0 Utah Department of Workforce Services 9.0 Utah State Tax Commission 6.5 Wells Fargo & Co. 7.0 Consensus Forecast -- This Month 6.9 -- Last Month 6.9 Retail Sales 4.9 5.8 6.6 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 Wage & Salary Empl. 2.9 3.0 4.4 2.9 3.8 3.4 3.3 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.8 7.8 1.7 0.0 3.1 4.4 2.4 1.0 2.2 5.0 2.2 3.6 2.2 3.6
2007 Annual Percent Change, 2007 from 2006
Current $ Personal Income 6.3 5.5 7.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 Retail Sales 5.1 4.8 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.3 Wage & Salary Empl. 3.1 2.6 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.9 9.2 1.7 (3.0) 2.8 3.6 2.0 2.1 1.9 0.0 2.5 2.5
WASHINGTON
2006 Annual Percent Change, 2006 from 2005
Current $ Personal Source: Income Conerly Consulting 5.4 Dick Conway & Associates 6.3 Doug Pedersen & Associates 7.0 Office of Forecast Council * 7.1 Wells Fargo & Co. 5.7 Consensus Forecast -- This Month 6.3 -- Last Month 6.3 Retail Sales 5.9 6.4 7.7 7.2 5.3 6.5 6.1 Wage & Salary Empl. 3.1 2.6 3.1 3.4 2.3 2.9 2.8 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.5 (8.2) 1.5 (1.0) 1.8 (6.5) 1.8 (21.4) 1.5 (8.2) 1.6 (9.1) 1.6 (7.7)
2007 Annual Percent Change, 2007 from 2006
Current $ Personal Income 5.7 6.5 6.6 7.1 5.5 6.3 6.2 Retail Sales 5.0 6.1 6.4 4.6 5.2 5.5 5.7 Wage & Salary Empl. 2.2 2.1 2.6 2.4 2.0 2.3 2.2 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.5 (10.0) 1.6 (6.0) 1.9 (6.0) 1.8 (6.0) 1.4 (8.8) 1.6 (7.4) 1.6 (8.5)
* Population forecast is from the Office of Financial Management.
REAL GROSS STATE PRODUCT Percent Change, Year Over Year
10.1 8.7 8.2 9.6 2005 2004 7.5 6.7 5.8 4.2 5.5 4.6 4.4 6.6 5.2 4.3 5.1 4.2 3.9 3.7 2.8
7.8
AZ
NV
ID
OR
UT
NM
CA
TX
CO
WA
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
JULY/AUGUST 2006
WESTERN BLUE CHIP
7
WESTERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC FORECAST
ARIZONA
Current $ Personal Income (millions) 2005 % change 2004 % change 2003 % change 2002 % change 179,765 9.3 164,495 8.4 151,708 5.2 144,150 3.8 Real Personal Income (millions) 160,218 6.3 150,775 5.6 142,717 3.2 138,340 2.0 Wage & Salary Employment (thousands) 2,471.3 4.1 2,373.5 3.4 2,296.3 1.4 2,265.1 0.0 Retail Sales (millions) 58,964 13.2 52,098 9.0 47,818 5.3 45,425 1.3 Manufacturing Employment (thousands) 176.2 0.2 175.8 0.3 175.3 (4.5) 183.5 (9.0) Single-family Permits (number) 80,648 16.3 69,339 8.1 64,143 15.3 55,649 9.3 Population (thousands) 5,939 3.4 5,744 3.0 5,579 2.6 5,439 2.7 Unemployment Rate 4.7 5.0 5.7 6.0
Basic data sources: Personal Income U.S. Department of Commerce; Wage & Salary Employment Arizona Department of Economic Security; Retail Sales Arizona Department of Revenue; Manufacturing Employment Arizona Department of Economic Security; Housing Permits Arizona Real Estate Center; Population Center for Business Research; Unemployment Rate Arizona Department of Economic Security. Consensus Estimate
CALIFORNIA
Current $ Personal Income (millions) 2005 % change 2004 % change 2003 % change 2002 % change 1,338,181 6.0 1,262,306 6.6 1,184,265 3.2 1,147,716 1.1 Real Personal Income (millions) 1,195,979 3.4 1,157,113 3.9 1,114,089 1.1 1,101,677 (0.6) Wage & Salary Employment (thousands) 14,770.4 1.6 14,538.8 1.0 14,392.3 (0.5) 14,457.8 (1.0) Retail Sales (millions) 368,382 5.2 350,173 9.4 320,217 6.2 301,612 2.6 Manufacturing Employment (thousands) 1,535.8 0.2 1532.7 (1.0) 1,547.9 (5.5) 1,638.2 (8.3) Single-family Permits (number) 151,022 0.2 150,710 7.3 140,512 16.3 120,783 13.7 Population (thousands) 36,132 0.8 35,842 1.1 35,457 1.3 34,988 1.3 Unemployment Rate 5.4 6.2 6.8 6.7
Basic data sources: Personal Income U.S. Department of Commerce; Wage & Salary Employment Bureau of Labor Statistics; Taxable Sales California Board of Equalization; Manufacturing Employment Bureau of Labor Statistics; Housing Permits Construction Industry Research Board; Population California Department of Finance; Unemployment Rate California Department of Finance. Consensus Estimate
COLORADO
Current $ Personal Income (millions) 2005 % change 2004 % change 2003 % change 2002 % change 177,025 6.5 166,188 5.8 157,035 2.6 153,066 0.2 Real Personal Income (millions) 158,214 3.9 152,339 3.1 147,730 0.5 146,926 (1.5) Wage & Salary Employment (thousands) 2,225.1 2.1 2,178.9 1.3 2,151.0 (1.4) 2,182.5 (1.9) Retail Sales (millions) 63,375 5.6 60,014 4.9 57,192 8.1 52,888 (10.4) Manufacturing Employment (thousands) 153.4 (0.8) 154.6 (0.9) 156.0 (6.1) 166.1 (8.7) Single-family Permits (number) 40,477 6.1 38,164 14.2 33,428 (5.9) 35,522 (2.6) Population (thousands) 4,665 1.4 4,602 1.2 4,548 1.1 4,498 1.6 Unemployment Rate 5.0 5.6 6.1 5.7
Basic data sources: Personal Income U.S. Department of Commerce; Wage & Salary Employment Colorado Department of Labor and Employment; Retail Trade Sales Colorado Department of Revenue; Manufacturing Employment Colorado Department of Labor and Employment; Housing Permits U.S. Bureau of the Census; Population U.S. Bureau of the Census; Unemployment Rate Colorado Department of Labor and Employment. Consensus Estimate
8
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JULY/AUGUST 2006
WESTERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC FORECAST
IDAHO
Current $ Personal Income (millions) 2005 % change 2004 % change 2003 % change 2002 % change 40,241 7.3 37,497 8.2 34,654 2.4 33,849 2.4 Real Personal Income (millions) 35,965 4.6 34,373 5.4 32,600 0.3 32,491 0.7 Wage & Salary Employment (thousands) 608.0 3.6 586.9 2.6 572.0 0.7 568.2 0.1 Retail Sales (millions) 19,183 14.7 16,727 4.2 16,059 2.1 15,736 8.3 Manufacturing Employment (thousands) 62.2 1.1 61.5 (0.8) 62.0 (4.5) 64.9 (5.0) Single-family Permits (number) 19,464 32.9 14,650 17.8 12,432 21.7 10,212 7.7 Population (thousands) 1,429 2.4 1,395 2.0 1,368 1.9 1,343 1.7 Unemployment Rate 3.8 4.7 5.3 5.4
Basic data sources: Personal Income U.S. Department of Commerce; Wage & Salary Employment Idaho Department of Employment; Retail Sales Idaho State Tax Commission; Manufacturing Employment Idaho Department of Employment; Housing Permits First Security Bank; Population U.S. Bureau of the Census; Unemployment Rate Idaho Department of Employment. Consensus Estimate
NEVADA
Current $ Personal Income (millions) 86,650 11.1 78,022 9.0 71,606 7.5 66,632 3.5 Real Personal Income (millions) 77,442 8.3 71,520 6.2 67,363 5.3 63,959 1.7 Wage & Salary Employment (thousands) 1,225.2 6.3 1,152.4 5.9 1,088.3 3.5 1,052.0 0.1 Retail Sales (millions) 46,190 12.4 41,087 16.0 35,426 9.3 32,410 3.0 Gaming Revenue (millions) 11,649.0 10.3 10,562.2 9.7 9,625.3 1.9 9,447.4 (0.3) Single-family Permits (number) 37,438 (3.6) 38,817 17.5 33,033 21.1 27,284 1.1 Population (thousands) 2,415 3.5 2,333 4.1 2,242 3.4 2,168 3.5 Unemployment Rate 4.1 4.6 5.3 5.7
2005 % change 2004 % change 2003 % change 2002 % change
Basic data sources: Personal Income U.S. Department of Commerce; Wage & Salary Employment Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation; Retail Sales Nevada Department of Taxation; Gross Gaming Revenue Nevada State Gaming Control Board; Housing Permits U.S. Bureau of the Census; Population U.S. ureau of the Census; Unemployment Rate Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation. Consensus Estimate N/A - not yet available
NEW MEXICO
Current $ Personal Income (millions) 2005 % change 2004 % change 2003 % change 2002 % change 53,308 7.0 49,828 6.5 46,779 4.0 44,987 1.9 Real Personal Income (millions) 47,644 4.3 45,675 3.8 44,007 1.9 43,182 0.2 Wage & Salary Employment (thousands) 806.9 2.0 790.7 1.9 775.6 1.2 766.1 1.2 Retail Sales (millions) 12,900 4.8 12,312 5.2 11,702 ** 12,708 1.3 Manufacturing Employment (thousands) 36.0 0.2 35.9 (1.6) 36.5 (4.9) 38.4 (6.1) Single-family Permits (number) 13,553 15.4 11,743 (0.7) 11,829 14.3 10,348 15.9 Population (thousands) 1,928 1.3 1,903 1.3 1,879 1.3 1,855 1.2 Unemployment Rate 5.3 5.7 5.9 5.5
Basic data sources: Personal Income U.S. Department of Commerce; Wage & Salary Employment New Mexico Department of Labor; Retail Sales New Mexico Department of Taxation & Revenue; Manufacturing Employment New Mexico Department of Labor; Housing Permits U.S. Bureau of the Census; Population U.S. Bureau of the Census; Unemployment Rate New Mexico Department of Labor. Consensus Estimate N/A - not yet available ** Due to a change in the manner of calculation, it may not be appropriate to compare 2003 retail sales with previous years.
JULY/AUGUST 2006
WESTERN BLUE CHIP
9
WESTERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC FORECAST
OREGON
Current $ Personal Income (millions) 2005 % change 2004 % change 2003 % change 2002 % change 116,889 6.5 109,757 5.6 103,890 2.0 101,882 2.9 Real Personal Income (millions) 104,468 3.8 100,610 2.9 97,734 (0.1) 97,795 1.1 Wage & Salary Employment (thousands) 1,647.8 3.4 1,593.7 2.0 1,562.2 (0.7) 1,572.5 (1.3) Manufacturing Employment (thousands) 206.0 3.3 199.5 2.3 194.9 (3.3) 201.6 (6.5) Single-family Permits (number) 24,925 16.6 21,372 13.7 18,799 4.6 17,977 10.9 Housing Permits (number) 31,864 13.8 28,000 7.3 26,103 15.8 22,543 7.1 Population (thousands) 3,641 1.4 3,591 0.8 3,563 1.1 3,522 1.4 Unemployment Rate 6.1 7.3 8.1 7.6
Basic data sources: Personal Income U.S. Department of Commerce; Wage & Salary Employment Oregon Employment Division; Manufacturing Employment Oregon Employment Division; Single-family Permits U.S. Bureau of the Census; Housing Permits U.S. Bureau of the Census; Population Portland State University; Unemployment Rate Oregon Employment Division. Consensus Estimate
TEXAS
Current $ Personal Income (millions) 2005 % change 2004 % change 2003 % change 2002 % change 742,074 7.5 690,588 6.1 650,875 3.9 626,604 1.1 Real Personal Income (millions) 663,217 4.8 633,038 3.4 612,305 1.8 601,468 (0.6) Wage & Salary Employment (thousands) 9,606.4 1.4 9,478.3 1.2 9,370.0 (0.5) 9,416.0 (1.0) Retail Sales (billions) 347.6 6.1 327.6 6.4 307.9 3.9 296.0 3.9 Manufacturing Employment (thousands) 889.6 0.0 889.5 (1.2) 900.0 (5.1) 948.7 (7.6) Single-family Permits (number) 165,579 16.8 141,810 6.6 133,077 10.3 120,644 8.3 Population (thousands) 22,860 1.7 22,472 1.7 22,099 1.7 21,722 1.8 Unemployment Rate 5.3 6.0 6.7 6.4
Basic data sources: Personal Income U.S. Department of Commerce; Wage & Salary Employment Texas Employment Commission; Gross Retail Sales Texas State Comptroller of Public Accounts; Manufacturing Employment Texas Employment Commission; Housing Permits U.S. Bureau of the Census; Population U.S. Bureau of the Census; Unemployment Rate Texas Employment Commission. Consensus Estimate
UTAH
Current $ Personal Income (millions) 2005 % change 2004 % change 2003 % change 2002 % change 69,299 7.6 64,399 6.8 60,298 3.7 58,172 2.8 Real Personal Income (millions) 61,935 4.9 59,032 4.1 56,725 1.6 55,838 1.0 Wage & Salary Employment (thousands) 1,144.2 3.7 1,103.2 2.7 1,074.1 0.1 1,073.4 (0.7) Retail Sales (millions) 21,409 5.2 20,351 8.2 18,809 2.1 18,356 3.4 Manufacturing Employment (thousands) 117.4 2.2 114.9 2.3 112.3 (1.4) 113.9 (6.6) Single-family Permits (number) 24,645 23.9 19,899 10.6 17,995 16.8 15,406 11.2 Population (thousands) 2,470 2.0 2,421 1.8 2,379 1.8 2,337 0.0 Unemployment Rate 4.3 5 5.6 5.8
Basic data sources: Personal Income U.S. Department of Commerce; Wage & Salary Employment Utah Department of Workforce Services; Retail Sales Utah State Tax Commission; Manufacturing Employment Utah Department of Workforce Services; Housing Permits University of Utah; Population U.S. Bureau of the Census; Unemployment Rate Utah Department of Workforce Services. Consensus Estimate
10
WESTERN BLUE CHIP
JULY/AUGUST 2006
WESTERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC FORECAST
W A S H I N G TO N
Current $ Personal Income (millions) 2005 % change 2004 % change 2003 % change 2002 % change 222,643 2.4 217,503 7.9 201,607 2.1 197,452 2.0 Real Personal Income (millions) 198,983 (0.2) 199,378 5.1 189,660 0.1 189,531 0.3 Wage & Salary Employment (thousands) 2,763.2 2.4 2,698.2 1.5 2,657.8 0.1 2,654.1 (1.6) Retail Sales (millions) 98,552 9.3 90,139 4.6 86,165 2.1 84,418 (1.4) Manufacturing Employment (thousands) 267.1 1.4 263.5 (1.3) 267.1 (6.3) 285.0 (9.8) Single-family Permits (number) 40,928 11.2 36,815 6.8 34,480 4.2 33,090 17.6 Population (thousands) 6,288 1.3 6,207 1.2 6,131 1.1 6,066 1.2 Unemployment Rate 5.5 6.3 7.4 7.3
Basic data sources: Personal Income U.S. Department of Commerce; Wage & Salary Employment Washington State Employment Security; Taxable Retail Sales Washington Department of Revenue; Manufacturing Employment Washington State Employment Security; Housing Permits U.S. Department of the Census; Population U.S. Bureau of the Census; Unemployment Rate Washington State Employment Security. Consensus Estimate
CONTRIBUTION TO GROSS STATE PRODUCT By Percentage Point, 2004
2.1
Construction Financial Activities
1.5 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 ID OR NV NM UT CA TX AZ CO WA
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
1.1 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.2
UE P BLHINSUS C NSE
CO
TM
WESTERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC FORECAST
Robert J. Eggert Sr., Executive Editor Dawn McLaren, Editor Tracy Clark, Managing Editor Lee McPheters, Contributing Editor Nancy A. Maneely, Editorial Coordinator
WEWESTERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC FORECAST (ISSN 1042 6795) is publishedthe Bank One One Economic Outlook Center, an affiliate of the L. William STERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC FORECAST (ISSN 1042 6795) is published by by the Bank Economic Outlook Center, an affiliate of the L. William Seidman Seidman Research Institute, W. P. Carey School of Business, P.O. Box 874011, Tempe, AZ 85287-4011. Rates: AZ Copy one E-mail subscriptions (PDF) are Research Institute, College of Business, Arizona State University,Arizona State University, P.O. Box 874011, Tempe,Print85287-4011. year (10 issues), $110.00; two years (20 available at $99 for onefile (10 issues)$99.00; two two years (20 issues). Address all requests to the Bank Economic Outlook Center, or call call (480) 965-5543. issues), $160.00. PDF year one year, or $145 for years, $115.00. Address all requests to the Bank One One Economic Outlook Center, or (800) 448-0432. Checks Checks must to payable to ASU Foundation. be deposited with the with the ASU Foundation, a nonprofit organization which exists to support ASU. Your paymust be payable be ASU Foundation. Funds willFunds will be depositedASU Foundation, a non-profit organization which exists to support ASU. Your payment is not ment is not considered a charitable considered a charitable contribution. contribution. 2006, Arizona Board of Regents for Arizona University. Reprinting information contained in this publication requires the prior prior written permission Bank 2003, Arizona Board of Regents for Arizona StateState University. Reprinting information contained in this publication requires the written permission of the of theOne Bank Outlook Center in the Center in Seidman Research Institute at Arizona State Arizona State EconomicOne Economic OutlookL. Williamthe L. William Seidman Research Institute at University. University.
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JULY/AUGUST 2006 WESTERN BLUE CHIP 11
WESTERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC FORECAST
The Adams Group Colorado Springs, Colorado Tucker Hart Adams Arizona Dept. of Commerce Phoenix, Arizona Kent Ennis Arizona Department of Economic Security Phoenix, Arizona Donald J. Wehbey Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee Phoenix, Arizona Staff Arizona Public Service Co. Phoenix, Arizona Pete Ewen Arizona State University Tempe, Arizona Tracy Clark California Legislative Analyst's Office Sacramento, California Brad Williams California State University Department of Economics Long Beach, California Joseph P. Magaddino Capital Corporation of the West Moraga, California Tapan Munroe Center for Business & Economic Forecasting Denver, Colorado Wilson D. Kendall Chapman University Orange, California Esmael Adibi Colorado Legislative Council Denver, Colorado Tom Dunn Colorado Office of Planning & Budgeting Denver, Colorado Maria Coe Conerly Consulting Portland, Oregon Bill Conerly Dick Conway & Associates Seattle, Washington Dick Conway Doug Pedersen & Associates Seattle, Washington Doug Pedersen Eastern New Mexico University Portales, New Mexico David Hemley ECON-LINC Phoenix, Arizona John Lucking EconLit LLC Phoenix, Arizona Dwight Duncan Econoclast Dallas, Texas Michael Cosgrove Economic Development Corp. of Los Angeles County Los Angeles, California Jack Kyser Eggert Economic Enterprises, Inc. Sedona, Arizona Robert J. Eggert, Sr. Elliott D. Pollack & Co. Scottsdale, Arizona Elliott Pollack Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Dallas, Texas Keith R. Phillips Forefront Economics Beaverton, Oregon Mark Thompson H. C. Reardon Economics Phoenix, Arizona H. C. Reardon Idaho Division of Financial Management Boise, Idaho Michael Ferguson Idaho Economics Boise, Idaho John Church New Mexico State University Las Cruces, New Mexico Chris Erickson Northern Arizona University Flagstaff, Arizona Dennis Foster, Ronald Gunderson & Max Jerrell Office of the Forecast Council Olympia, Washington Chang Mook Sohn UCLA Anderson Forecast Los Angeles, California Joseph Hurd University of Arizona, Eller College Tucson, Arizona Marshall Vest University of Colorado Boulder, Colorado Richard Wobbekind University of Houston Houston, Texas Barton Smith University of Nevada at Las Vegas Las Vegas, Nevada Keith Schwer University of Texas El Paso, Texas Tom Fullerton University of New Mexico Albuquerque, New Mexico Larry Waldman University of North Texas Center for Economic Development and Research Denton, Texas Bernard Weinstein University of the Pacific Stockton, California Sean Snaith Utah Dept. of Workforce Services Salt Lake City, Utah Mark Knold Utah State Tax Commission Salt Lake City, Utah Douglas Macdonald VisionEcon Phoenix, Arizona Debra J. Roubik Wells Fargo & Co. Minneapolis, Minnesota Ed Kashmarek & Scott Anderson Wells Fargo & Co. Salt Lake City, Utah Kelly K. Matthews Xcel Energy Denver, Colorado Tim Sheesley
Oregon Executive Department Salem, Oregon Tom Potiowsky Pacificorp Salt Lake City, Utah Reed Davis Perryman Group Waco, Texas M. Ray Perryman Portland General Electric Portland, Oregon Ham Nguyen Public Service Co. of New Mexico Albuquerque, N.M. Kevin Konetzni Restrepo Consulting Group, LLC Las Vegas, Nevada John Restrepo Rhodes Econometrics West Linn, Oregon C. Wesley Rhodes Salt River Project Phoenix, Arizona Arlyn Herrera, Rebecca Holmes & Karen Wolfe Stellar Capital Management Phoenix, Arizona Stephen Taddie Southwest Gas Corp. Las Vegas, Nevada Jamie Cattanach
Legislative Counsel Bureau, Fiscal Analysis Carson City, Nevada Ted Zuend The Maguire Co. Phoenix, Arizona Alan Maguire Metropolitan West Asset Management Phoenix, Arizona Neal Helm
Texas State Comptroller of Public Accounts Austin, Texas Tamara R. Plaut & Gary Preuss Thredgold Economic Associates Salt Lake City, Utah Jeff K. Thredgold
Nevada Dept. of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation Carson City, Nevada Peter Janson
U.S. Bancorp Portland, Oregon John W. Mitchell
12
WESTERN BLUE CHIP
JULY/AUGUST 2006
Object Description
| TITLE | Blue chip economic forecast: western: what blue chip economists are saying about the western states |
| CREATOR | Arizona State University. Economic Outlook Center. |
| SUBJECT | Economic forecasting--Arizona--Periodicals; Economic development--Arizona--Periodicals; Arizona--Economic conditions--Periodicals; |
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| Language | English |
| Publisher | W.P. Carey School of Business (Arizona State University). |
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Description
| TITLE | Blue chip economic forecast: western: what blue chip economists are saying about the western states: July/August 2006 Volume 20, Number 6 |
| DESCRIPTION | 12 pages (PDF version). File size: 151.168 KB. |
| Language | English |
| TYPE |
Text |
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State Documents |
| Acquisition Note | reports@lib.az.us |
| RIGHTS MANAGEMENT | Copyright to this resource is held by the creating agency and is provided here for educational purposes only. It may not be downloaded, reproduced or distributed in any format without written permission of the creating agency. Any attempt to circumvent the access controls placed on this file is a violation of United States and international copyright laws, and is subject to criminal prosecution. |
| DATE ORIGINAL | [2006-08] |
| Time Period | 2000s (2000-2009) |
| ORIGINAL FORMAT | Born Digital |
| Location | o18964989 |
| DIGITAL IDENTIFIER | WBC 0608.pdf |
| DIGITAL FORMAT | PDF (Portable Document Format) |
| REPOSITORY | Arizona State Library, Archives and Public Records. |
| Full Text | JULY/AUGUST 2006 Volume 20, Number 6 Cautious CA analysts were right about '05 job growth CONSENSUS FORECASTS AND ACTUAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT GROWTH FOR WESTERN STATES: 2005 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 State California Colorado New Mexico Washington Texas Oregon Arizona Utah Nevada Idaho Forecast 1.7% 2.3 2.0 2.4 1.9 2.1 3.9 2.5 4.1 2.0 Actual 1.8% 2.1 2.4 2.9 2.5 3.1 5.3 4.1 6.2 4.2 Difference 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.2 Source: Forecasts from Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast, January/February 2005; actual employment growth from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. At the beginning of last year, the California forecasting panel projected the Golden State would record the weakest job growth in the West. Their pessimism was justified, as employment in California grew by 1.8 percent in 2005. On the bright side, this dour outlook earned the California forecasters top honors for producing the most accurate forecast of nonfarm employment growth among Western states in 2005. The California job growth forecast missed the mark by a scant 0.1 percent point [see table]. The Colorado panel was runner-up with a miss of 0.2 percent. With the exception of Colorado, analysts in the West underestimated the strength of labor markets in 2005. Job growth turned out to be stronger than expected, with every Western state exceeding the national nonfarm growth rate of 1.5 percent. CO forecaster closest to the mark for fifth straight year There were two perfect state forecasts for 2005 job growth among the 75 analysts who contribute to the Western Blue Chip newsletter. Wilson Kendall of the private Center for Business and Economic Forecasting correctly foresaw Colorado's 2.1 percent employment increase for 2005. Remarkably, this was his fifth consecutive year to post the most accurate Colorado forecast, among a strong state cohort of experts. The other bulls-eye was scored by the flawless Phantom Forecaster of the California organization that prefers to remain listed only as "anonymous." Forecast panel members with the best individual forecasts for each state are shown in the accompanying table. In addition to Colorado's Wilson Kendall, repeat winners include the ever-prescient Keith Schwer (University of Nevada Las Vegas, fourth consecutive year) and the Wells Fargo team of Sung Won Sohn and Scott Anderson (Washington, second consecutive year). -- Lee McPheters MOST ACCURATE FORECASTERS BY STATE: 2005 State Arizona California Colorado Idaho Nevada New Mexico Oregon Oregon Texas Utah Washington Organization VisionEcon Anonymous Center for Business & Economic Forecasting 5 Wells Fargo University of Nevada, Las Vegas 4 University of New Mexico Conerly Consulting Wells Fargo Wells Fargo Wells Fargo Wells Fargo 2 Panelists Debra Roubik Wilson Kendall Scott Anderson Sung Wun Sohn Keith Schwer Larry Waldman Bill Conerly Scott Anderson Sung Wun Sohn Scott Anderson Sung Wun Sohn Kelly Matthews Scott Anderson Sung Wun Sohn Bold print designates perfect forecast 2 Second consecutive year of forecast accuracy listing 4 Fourth consecutive year of forecast accuracy listing U.S. JOB GROWTH REAL GROSS STATE PRODUCT Percent Change, 2005 vs. 2004 1 Arizona 2 Nevada 3 Florida 4 Idaho 5 Oregon 6 Utah 7 Virginia 8 Montana 9 Wyoming 10 Hawaii 11 North Dakota 12 Georgia 13 New Mexico 14 New Hampshire 15 California 16 Texas 17 Colorado 18 Kansas 19 North Carolina 20 Connecticut 21 Maryland 22 Washington United States 23 South Dakota 24 South Carolina 25 New York 26 West Virginia 27 Alabama 28 Vermont 29 Oklahoma 30 Massachusetts 31 Arkansas 32 Kentucky 33 Missouri 34 New Jersey 35 Pennsylvania 36 Illinois 37 Rhode Island 38 Wisconsin 39 Iowa 40 Nebraska 41 Tennessee 42 Maine 43 Delaware 44 Minnesota 45 Mississippi 46 Indiana 47 Ohio 48 Alaska 49 Michigan 50 Louisiana -1.6 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 8.7 8.2 7.8 7.5 6.7 5.8 5.6 5.4 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 % Change: April 2006 vs. April 2005 Nonfarm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Goods-Producing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Construction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Manufacturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Service-Providing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Financial Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Professional & Business Services . . . Educational & Health Services . . . . . Leisure & Hospitality . . . . . . . . . . . . Government . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.3 3.7 0.0 1.4 1.1 0.6 -0.1 2.6 2.5 2.3 1.7 0.7 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. REAL ESTATE Residential Building Permits April 2006 vs. April 2005 Total Residential 164,884 192,245 -14.2 Singlefamily 129,393 151,654 -14.7 Multifamily 35,491 40,591 -12.6 2006 2005 % Source: U.S. Department of Commerce U.S. FORECASTS Percent Change 2006 Real GDP (Chain) . . . . . . CPI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . GDP Deflator (Chain) . . . 3.3 3.2 2.9 2007 2.7 1.5 1.7 Source: "U.S. Economic Outlook," Global Insight, May 2006 2 WESTERN BLUE CHIP JULY/AUGUST 2006 4 6 .. . " 3 : " 3 : . WESTERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC FORECAST 2006 Annual Percent Change, 2006 from 2005 Current $ Real Personal Personal Income Income 8.3 6.0 6.0 6.6 8.1 5.5 6.1 6.3 6.9 6.3 5.9 3.6 3.6 4.1 5.6 3.1 3.7 3.9 4.5 3.9 2007 Annual Percent Change, 2007 from 2006 Current $ Real Personal Personal Income Income 7.4 5.4 6.1 6.0 7.5 5.4 5.6 6.0 6.5 6.3 5.7 3.7 4.4 4.3 5.7 3.6 3.8 4.3 4.8 4.5 State: C Arizona California I olorado daho Nevada Oew Mexico T regon Uexas tah Washington Wage & Salary Empl. 4.6 1.6 2.2 2.7 4.6 2.1 2.7 2.1 3.4 2.9 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 3.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 3.8 1.5 1.3 1.8 2.2 1.6 (7.0) (9.6) (5.1) (4.3) 1.2 0.8 (2.7) (2.7) 3.6 (9.1) Wage & Salary Empl. 3.8 1.3 2.0 2.3 4.1 2.2 2.0 1.9 3.1 2.3 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 2.9 1.4 1.6 1.6 3.6 1.6 1.3 1.7 2.1 1.6 (5.0) (5.0) (4.3) (3.4) 0.2 (2.2) (2.0) (3.2) 2.5 (7.4) = Increase in consensus forecast = Decrease in consensus forecast Forecast notes from the Western region... Econom ic performance in Texas is closely mirroring that of the nation at the present time. The Texas, Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston unemployment rates are nearly equal to the U.S. average and have been trending together for some time. On the political front, the Texas legislat ure finally came up with a tax restructuring package that will cut ad valorem levies for public schools but impose a 3 percent gross receipts tax on all businesses, both incorporated and unincorporated. -- Bernard Weinstein Universit y of North Texas Denton, Texas The New Mexico economy continues to thrive, led by health care and social assistance, construction, oil and gas mining and government. These same sectors, along with a surge in manufacturing, will keep New Mexico on a solid growth path through 2007. -- Larry Waldman Universit y of New Mexico Albuquerque, New Mexico Texas continues to show sustained job growth and economic development success. Recent tax reforms will enhance the competitiveness of the state. -- M. Ray Perryman Perr yman Group Waco, Texas JULY/AUGUST 2006 I n June, the Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council increased its general fund revenue forecast for the 2005-07 and 2007-09 biennia by nearly $1 billion. The quarterly forecast update reflects a slightly stronger U.S. economic outlook as well as better-than-expected job growth in Washington during the first four months of 2006. But the main reason for the large revenue forecast increase is very strong revenue collection experience during the four months since the last forecast was released. Once again, const r uct ion and real estate related revenue sources accounted for the majority of the forecast increase. -- Bret Bertolin Washington Economic and Revenue Forecast Council Olympia, Washington Improving Oregon economic growth in 2004 gave way to near-boom conditions during the past 15 months. Slightly less robust performance is expected in 2006 and 2007. A reason? Labor scarcity will limit job gains. At the same time, well diversified growth bodes well for future performance. Oregon is doing very well. -- Jeff Thredgold Thredgold Economic Associates Salt Lake City, Utah Califor n ia's resale housing market has definitely softened, with more "price reduced" stickers on for sale signs. A sector to watch is the high-rise condo market and "live/work" lofts, as entrepreneurial developers have rushed into this market without assessing its depth. However, the news in other industries remains good, with international trade, technology and tourism continuing to set the pace. The movie industry is also encouraged by the year-to-year gains in both domestic and international box office receipts. Anywhere you go, business people are fretting about finding qualified workers. -- Jack Kyser Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation Los Angeles, California Af ter four years of comparatively low net migration, Colorado will once again become a more attractive place to relocate as the labor market gains additional strength. As a result, net migration will increase, and statewide population will grow at a rate of 1.5 percent this year compared to 1.0 percent for the nation. Net migration will account for about 45 percent of the population increase projected for 2006. -- Business Research Division Leeds School of Business Universit y of Colorado at Boulder Boulder, Colorado WESTERN BLUE CHIP 3 $ 0 // 4 4 &/ 6 4 ' 0 3 ' &0$34&$ " 4 5 4 &/4 4 6 4 " 54 WESTERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC FORECAST Methodology The consensus forecasting approach used in the Western Blue Chip was inspired by Robert J. Eggert of Sedona, Arizona. Eggert popularized consensus forecasting with the introduction of his widely cited newsletter on the national economy, Blue Chip Economic Indicators. This approach has been consistently shown to be more accurate than projections from an individual forecaster. Consensus panelists for the Western Blue Chip are drawn from leading firms, universities and state agencies across the West. Panelists are contacted during the final week of each month and forecast data are compiled by telephone and fax transmission until the last day of the month. Thus, data reported in the forecast tables for a given month are current as of the first day of that month. The consensus for each state is the mean of all forecasts shown in the table. Data are expressed as annual percentage changes relative to the annual average value for each indicator during the previous year. Since not all panelists revise their forecasts each month, changes in the consensus may result from revisions by an individual contributor. ARIZONA 2006 Annual Percent Change, 2006 from 2005 Current $ Personal Income 7.6 8.5 8.7 8.6 8.4 7.9 8.6 8.0 8.6 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.6 7.7 9.4 8.0 8.3 8.3 8.3 Retail Sales 7.1 9.0 7.6 8.4 8.0 7.4 7.8 9.0 8.0 9.0 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.9 7.2 7.6 8.3 7.5 7.9 7.9 Wage & Salary Empl. 4.0 4.0 4.9 5.5 4.8 4.2 4.3 5.0 5.4 4.4 4.6 4.4 3.9 5.0 3.9 4.9 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.5 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 3.0 (7.0) 3.0 (5.0) 3.0 (8.0) 2.9 3.2 (12.0) 3.0 (5.0) 3.3 (6.3) 3.3 (10.0) 3.2 (7.0) 3.0 (7.0) 3.2 (8.0) 2.9 3.2 2.8 3.3 3.4 2.9 3.1 3.1 (7.0) (9.0) (7.5) (7.6) 0.0 (6.0) (7.0) (6.5) 2007 Annual Percent Change, 2007 from 2006 Current $ Personal Income 7.2 7.8 6.8 7.2 7.8 7.5 8.1 7.5 7.7 7.4 7.6 7.7 8.5 7.5 7.1 6.2 6.1 7.8 7.4 7.5 Retail Sales 6.5 7.5 6.8 7.4 7.5 6.9 7.5 7.5 6.8 6.5 7.3 7.1 6.8 6.5 6.9 5.5 6.7 6.0 6.9 6.9 Wage & Salary Empl. 3.2 3.7 4.2 4.4 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.2 3.7 4.2 4.0 3.6 4.0 3.6 2.5 2.9 3.7 3.8 3.8 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 2.9 (8.0) 2.8 (4.0) 2.8 (7.0) 3.0 3.1 (5.0) 2.9 (5.0) 3.1 (6.0) 3.0 (5.0) 3.0 (2.0) 3.0 (3.0) 3.1 (8.0) 2.7 3.0 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.9 0.0 (4.0) (5.0) (8.7) (2.0) (7.0) (5.0) (4.0) Source: Arizona Department of Commerce Arizona Public Service ASU - Bank One EOC Department of Economic Security ECON-LINC EconLit LLC Eggert Economic Enterprises Inc. Elliott D. Pollack & Co. H. C. Reardon Economics Joint Legislative Budget Committee The Maguire Company Metropolitan West Asset Management NAU BBER Salt River Project Stellar Capital Management UA Eller College VisionEcon Wells Fargo & Co. Consensus Forecast -- This Month -- Last Month CALIFORNIA 2006 Annual Percent Change, 2006 from 2005 Current $ Personal Source: Income Anonymous 6.2 California State University, Long Beach * 6.3 Chapman University 6.5 L.A. County Economic Development Corp. 6.1 Legislative Analyst's Office 5.7 UCLA Business Forecasting Project 6.1 University of the Pacific 6.0 Wells Fargo & Co. 5.1 Consensus Forecast -- This Month 6.0 -- Last Month 5.7 *This forecast is for Southern California only 2007 Annual Percent Change, 2007 from 2006 Current $ Personal Income 5.8 4.9 5.1 5.9 5.5 4.8 5.6 4.9 5.4 5.4 Retail Sales 5.3 5.7 4.0 5.5 5.6 4.0 3.3 4.7 4.6 4.5 Wage & Salary Empl. 1.5 1.8 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.7 (1.2) 2.0 (0.8) 1.4 (8.1) 1.2 (0.3) 1.4 (1.0) 1.1 (8.8) 1.6 (5.5) 1.1 (10.0) 1.4 (5.0) 1.5 (4.7) Retail Sales 5.1 6.1 5.3 5.9 5.2 4.8 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.1 Wage & Salary Empl. 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.7 (12.0) 1.5 (0.7) 1.5 (10.3) 1.2 (5.0) 1.4 (10.0) 1.2 (8.0) 1.6 (13.8) 0.9 (8.0) 1.4 (9.6) 1.5 (9.9) 4 WESTERN BLUE CHIP JULY/AUGUST 2006 WESTERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC FORECAST COLORADO 2006 Annual Percent Change, 2006 from 2005 Current $ Personal Income 5.4 6.0 6.7 5.5 6.3 6.0 6.0 5.8 6.0 5.8 Retail Sales 5.3 5.5 5.5 4.8 5.5 5.7 4.7 5.4 5.3 5.2 Wage & Salary Empl. 1.8 2.2 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.0 2.2 2.2 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 (8.1) (10.0) (9.3) (1.0) (7.8) (1.0) (2.0) (1.3) (5.1) (3.8) 2007 Annual Percent Change, 2007 from 2006 Current $ Personal Income 5.0 6.5 6.5 5.8 6.6 6.1 5.4 7.1 6.1 6.1 Retail Sales (1.5) 5.8 5.1 5.1 5.9 5.0 4.3 6.0 4.5 4.6 Wage & Salary Empl. 0.0 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.2 1.7 2.6 2.0 2.1 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 (10.1) (5.0) (7.0) (0.5) (2.9) (1.0) (5.0) (2.5) (4.3) (3.2) Source: The Adams Group, Inc. Ctr. for Business and Econ. Forecasting Colorado Legislative Council David Hemley Office of State Planning and Budgeting University of Colorado Wells Fargo & Co. Xcel Energy Consensus Forecast -- This Month -- Last Month IDAHO 2006 Annual Percent Change, 2006 from 2005 Source: Idaho Div. of Financial Management Idaho Economics Thredgold Economic Associates Wells Fargo & Co. Consensus Forecast -- This Month -- Last Month Current $ Personal Income 7.1 6.6 5.5 7.0 6.6 6.6 Retail Sales Wage & Salary Empl. 2.1 2.5 2.5 3.6 2.7 2.7 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 (13.0) (5.0) (4.0) 5.0 (4.3) (4.3) 2007 Annual Percent Change, 2007 from 2006 Current $ Personal Income 6.2 6.3 5.0 6.5 6.0 6.0 Retail Sales Wage & Popu- Single-family Salary lation Housing Empl. Growth Permits 2.0 2.1 2.2 3.0 2.3 2.3 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.6 (0.7) (8.0) (5.0) 0.0 (3.4) (3.4) 5.0 5.7 5.4 5.4 4.5 5.5 5.0 5.0 NEVADA 2006 Annual Percent Change, 2006 from 2005 Current $ Gross Wage & Personal Gaming Salary Income Revenues Empl. 9.2 7.5 8.5 8.6 7.4 7.3 8.1 8.1 5.4 5.0 7.4 5.1 6.2 5.8 5.8 5.4 4.5 4.0 4.9 4.6 4.3 4.6 4.6 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 3.0 4.0 3.7 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.8 3.8 0.0 0.0 1.4 3.6 1.0 1.2 1.2 2007 Annual Percent Change, 2007 from 2006 Current $ Gross Wage & Personal Gaming Salary Income Revenues Empl. 8.8 7.0 6.5 8.4 7.2 6.8 7.5 7.5 5.2 5.0 5.8 5.0 5.6 5.3 5.4 5.2 4.0 2.8 4.8 4.5 3.2 4.1 4.1 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 2.9 4.0 3.0 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.6 1.5 (4.5) 1.2 4.8 (2.1) 0.2 0.2 Source: Dept. of Empl., Training, and Rehab. Restrepo Consulting Group, LLC Thredgold Economic Associates Southwest Gas Univ. of Nevada at Las Vegas CBER Wells Fargo & Co. Consensus Forecast -- This Month -- Last Month JULY/AUGUST 2006 WESTERN BLUE CHIP 5 $ 0 // 4 4 &/ 6 4 ' 0 3 ' &0$34&$ " 4 5 4 &/4 4 6 4 " 54 WESTERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC FORECAST NEW MEXICO 2006 Annual Percent Change, 2006 from 2005 Current $ Mfg. Wage & Personal Employ- Salary Income ment Empl. 5.3 0.9 1.8 1.3 2.0 5.2 1.0 1.6 5.2 1.0 1.9 6.1 4.9 2.6 5.7 1.8 2.8 5.5 1.8 2.1 5.5 2.0 2.1 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.4 1.0 2007 Annual Percent Change, 2007 from 2006 Current $ Mfg. Personal EmployIncome ment 5.2 0.9 Wage & Salary Empl. 2.1 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.5 (1.2) Source: Eastern New Mexico University New Mexico Department of Labor New Mexico State Univ. CEMAF Public Service New Mexico University of New Mexico BBER Wells Fargo & Co. Consensus Forecast -- This Month -- Last Month 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.5 (1.0) 7.3 (4.1) 0.8 (0.9) 5.1 5.5 5.6 5.4 5.3 0.8 4.9 1.7 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.6 (1.8) (1.4) (4.4) (2.2) (2.7) OREGON 2006 Annual Percent Change, 2006 from 2005 Current $ Mfg. Personal EmployIncome ment 6.7 5.7 6.5 6.3 6.2 5.8 6.2 5.4 6.1 6.1 3.2 2.2 2.8 1.2 2.3 1.2 2.5 0.9 2.0 2.1 Wage & Salary Empl. 3.1 2.6 3.1 2.3 2.6 2.4 3.0 2.3 2.7 2.7 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 (11.4) 3.5 (8.3) 0.0 1.9 3.5 (7.0) (3.7) (2.7) (2.7) 2007 Annual Percent Change, 2007 from 2006 Current $ Mfg. Personal EmployIncome ment 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.4 5.4 5.8 5.4 5.6 5.6 0.0 1.6 (0.3) 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.7 0.7 Wage & Salary Empl. 1.9 2.4 1.4 1.9 1.7 2.2 2.3 1.9 2.0 2.0 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 (10.0) 7.5 (2.8) (5.0) 0.9 (2.0) 0.0 (4.3) (2.0) (1.9) Source: Conerly Consulting Forefront Economics Oregon Executive Department Portland General Electric Rhodes Econometrics Thredgold Economic Associates U.S. Bancorp Wells Fargo & Co. Consensus Forecast -- This Month -- Last Month TEXAS 2006 Annual Percent Change, 2006 from 2005 Current $ Personal Income 6.2 6.7 5.3 6.8 7.1 5.8 5.6 6.4 7.2 6.3 6.4 Retail Sales 6.0 6.4 5.6 6.8 8.1 5.4 5.5 6.1 5.7 6.2 6.2 Wage & Salary Empl. 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.3 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.1 2.1 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.7 1.8 1.7 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.0 (1.0) 0.8 (4.1) (6.4) (9.8) 0.4 (1.5) (4.0) (2.7) (2.6) 2007 Annual Percent Change, 2007 from 2006 Current $ Personal Income 5.9 6.5 5.8 7.0 6.2 5.4 5.5 6.0 5.7 6.0 6.1 Retail Sales 5.7 6.6 5.7 7.0 6.0 5.4 5.4 5.9 5.3 5.9 6.0 Wage & Salary Empl. 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.9 1.9 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 (2.0) 2.0 0.0 (5.2) (13.8) (3.9) 0.3 (1.2) (5.0) (3.2) (3.4) Source: Econoclast Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas David Hemley Perryman Group TX State Comptroller of Public Accounts University of Houston - CPP University of North Texas University of Texas at El Paso Wells Fargo & Co. Consensus Forecast -- This Month -- Last Month 6 WESTERN BLUE CHIP JULY/AUGUST 2006 WESTERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC FORECAST UTAH 2006 Annual Percent Change, 2006 from 2005 Current $ Personal Source: Income Pacificorp 6.0 Thredgold Economic Associates 6.0 Utah Department of Workforce Services 9.0 Utah State Tax Commission 6.5 Wells Fargo & Co. 7.0 Consensus Forecast -- This Month 6.9 -- Last Month 6.9 Retail Sales 4.9 5.8 6.6 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 Wage & Salary Empl. 2.9 3.0 4.4 2.9 3.8 3.4 3.3 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.8 7.8 1.7 0.0 3.1 4.4 2.4 1.0 2.2 5.0 2.2 3.6 2.2 3.6 2007 Annual Percent Change, 2007 from 2006 Current $ Personal Income 6.3 5.5 7.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 Retail Sales 5.1 4.8 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.3 Wage & Salary Empl. 3.1 2.6 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.9 9.2 1.7 (3.0) 2.8 3.6 2.0 2.1 1.9 0.0 2.5 2.5 WASHINGTON 2006 Annual Percent Change, 2006 from 2005 Current $ Personal Source: Income Conerly Consulting 5.4 Dick Conway & Associates 6.3 Doug Pedersen & Associates 7.0 Office of Forecast Council * 7.1 Wells Fargo & Co. 5.7 Consensus Forecast -- This Month 6.3 -- Last Month 6.3 Retail Sales 5.9 6.4 7.7 7.2 5.3 6.5 6.1 Wage & Salary Empl. 3.1 2.6 3.1 3.4 2.3 2.9 2.8 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.5 (8.2) 1.5 (1.0) 1.8 (6.5) 1.8 (21.4) 1.5 (8.2) 1.6 (9.1) 1.6 (7.7) 2007 Annual Percent Change, 2007 from 2006 Current $ Personal Income 5.7 6.5 6.6 7.1 5.5 6.3 6.2 Retail Sales 5.0 6.1 6.4 4.6 5.2 5.5 5.7 Wage & Salary Empl. 2.2 2.1 2.6 2.4 2.0 2.3 2.2 Popu- Single-family lation Housing Growth Permits 1.5 (10.0) 1.6 (6.0) 1.9 (6.0) 1.8 (6.0) 1.4 (8.8) 1.6 (7.4) 1.6 (8.5) * Population forecast is from the Office of Financial Management. REAL GROSS STATE PRODUCT Percent Change, Year Over Year 10.1 8.7 8.2 9.6 2005 2004 7.5 6.7 5.8 4.2 5.5 4.6 4.4 6.6 5.2 4.3 5.1 4.2 3.9 3.7 2.8 7.8 AZ NV ID OR UT NM CA TX CO WA Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis JULY/AUGUST 2006 WESTERN BLUE CHIP 7 WESTERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC FORECAST ARIZONA Current $ Personal Income (millions) 2005 % change 2004 % change 2003 % change 2002 % change 179,765 9.3 164,495 8.4 151,708 5.2 144,150 3.8 Real Personal Income (millions) 160,218 6.3 150,775 5.6 142,717 3.2 138,340 2.0 Wage & Salary Employment (thousands) 2,471.3 4.1 2,373.5 3.4 2,296.3 1.4 2,265.1 0.0 Retail Sales (millions) 58,964 13.2 52,098 9.0 47,818 5.3 45,425 1.3 Manufacturing Employment (thousands) 176.2 0.2 175.8 0.3 175.3 (4.5) 183.5 (9.0) Single-family Permits (number) 80,648 16.3 69,339 8.1 64,143 15.3 55,649 9.3 Population (thousands) 5,939 3.4 5,744 3.0 5,579 2.6 5,439 2.7 Unemployment Rate 4.7 5.0 5.7 6.0 Basic data sources: Personal Income U.S. Department of Commerce; Wage & Salary Employment Arizona Department of Economic Security; Retail Sales Arizona Department of Revenue; Manufacturing Employment Arizona Department of Economic Security; Housing Permits Arizona Real Estate Center; Population Center for Business Research; Unemployment Rate Arizona Department of Economic Security. Consensus Estimate CALIFORNIA Current $ Personal Income (millions) 2005 % change 2004 % change 2003 % change 2002 % change 1,338,181 6.0 1,262,306 6.6 1,184,265 3.2 1,147,716 1.1 Real Personal Income (millions) 1,195,979 3.4 1,157,113 3.9 1,114,089 1.1 1,101,677 (0.6) Wage & Salary Employment (thousands) 14,770.4 1.6 14,538.8 1.0 14,392.3 (0.5) 14,457.8 (1.0) Retail Sales (millions) 368,382 5.2 350,173 9.4 320,217 6.2 301,612 2.6 Manufacturing Employment (thousands) 1,535.8 0.2 1532.7 (1.0) 1,547.9 (5.5) 1,638.2 (8.3) Single-family Permits (number) 151,022 0.2 150,710 7.3 140,512 16.3 120,783 13.7 Population (thousands) 36,132 0.8 35,842 1.1 35,457 1.3 34,988 1.3 Unemployment Rate 5.4 6.2 6.8 6.7 Basic data sources: Personal Income U.S. Department of Commerce; Wage & Salary Employment Bureau of Labor Statistics; Taxable Sales California Board of Equalization; Manufacturing Employment Bureau of Labor Statistics; Housing Permits Construction Industry Research Board; Population California Department of Finance; Unemployment Rate California Department of Finance. Consensus Estimate COLORADO Current $ Personal Income (millions) 2005 % change 2004 % change 2003 % change 2002 % change 177,025 6.5 166,188 5.8 157,035 2.6 153,066 0.2 Real Personal Income (millions) 158,214 3.9 152,339 3.1 147,730 0.5 146,926 (1.5) Wage & Salary Employment (thousands) 2,225.1 2.1 2,178.9 1.3 2,151.0 (1.4) 2,182.5 (1.9) Retail Sales (millions) 63,375 5.6 60,014 4.9 57,192 8.1 52,888 (10.4) Manufacturing Employment (thousands) 153.4 (0.8) 154.6 (0.9) 156.0 (6.1) 166.1 (8.7) Single-family Permits (number) 40,477 6.1 38,164 14.2 33,428 (5.9) 35,522 (2.6) Population (thousands) 4,665 1.4 4,602 1.2 4,548 1.1 4,498 1.6 Unemployment Rate 5.0 5.6 6.1 5.7 Basic data sources: Personal Income U.S. Department of Commerce; Wage & Salary Employment Colorado Department of Labor and Employment; Retail Trade Sales Colorado Department of Revenue; Manufacturing Employment Colorado Department of Labor and Employment; Housing Permits U.S. Bureau of the Census; Population U.S. Bureau of the Census; Unemployment Rate Colorado Department of Labor and Employment. Consensus Estimate 8 WESTERN BLUE CHIP JULY/AUGUST 2006 WESTERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC FORECAST IDAHO Current $ Personal Income (millions) 2005 % change 2004 % change 2003 % change 2002 % change 40,241 7.3 37,497 8.2 34,654 2.4 33,849 2.4 Real Personal Income (millions) 35,965 4.6 34,373 5.4 32,600 0.3 32,491 0.7 Wage & Salary Employment (thousands) 608.0 3.6 586.9 2.6 572.0 0.7 568.2 0.1 Retail Sales (millions) 19,183 14.7 16,727 4.2 16,059 2.1 15,736 8.3 Manufacturing Employment (thousands) 62.2 1.1 61.5 (0.8) 62.0 (4.5) 64.9 (5.0) Single-family Permits (number) 19,464 32.9 14,650 17.8 12,432 21.7 10,212 7.7 Population (thousands) 1,429 2.4 1,395 2.0 1,368 1.9 1,343 1.7 Unemployment Rate 3.8 4.7 5.3 5.4 Basic data sources: Personal Income U.S. Department of Commerce; Wage & Salary Employment Idaho Department of Employment; Retail Sales Idaho State Tax Commission; Manufacturing Employment Idaho Department of Employment; Housing Permits First Security Bank; Population U.S. Bureau of the Census; Unemployment Rate Idaho Department of Employment. Consensus Estimate NEVADA Current $ Personal Income (millions) 86,650 11.1 78,022 9.0 71,606 7.5 66,632 3.5 Real Personal Income (millions) 77,442 8.3 71,520 6.2 67,363 5.3 63,959 1.7 Wage & Salary Employment (thousands) 1,225.2 6.3 1,152.4 5.9 1,088.3 3.5 1,052.0 0.1 Retail Sales (millions) 46,190 12.4 41,087 16.0 35,426 9.3 32,410 3.0 Gaming Revenue (millions) 11,649.0 10.3 10,562.2 9.7 9,625.3 1.9 9,447.4 (0.3) Single-family Permits (number) 37,438 (3.6) 38,817 17.5 33,033 21.1 27,284 1.1 Population (thousands) 2,415 3.5 2,333 4.1 2,242 3.4 2,168 3.5 Unemployment Rate 4.1 4.6 5.3 5.7 2005 % change 2004 % change 2003 % change 2002 % change Basic data sources: Personal Income U.S. Department of Commerce; Wage & Salary Employment Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation; Retail Sales Nevada Department of Taxation; Gross Gaming Revenue Nevada State Gaming Control Board; Housing Permits U.S. Bureau of the Census; Population U.S. ureau of the Census; Unemployment Rate Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation. Consensus Estimate N/A - not yet available NEW MEXICO Current $ Personal Income (millions) 2005 % change 2004 % change 2003 % change 2002 % change 53,308 7.0 49,828 6.5 46,779 4.0 44,987 1.9 Real Personal Income (millions) 47,644 4.3 45,675 3.8 44,007 1.9 43,182 0.2 Wage & Salary Employment (thousands) 806.9 2.0 790.7 1.9 775.6 1.2 766.1 1.2 Retail Sales (millions) 12,900 4.8 12,312 5.2 11,702 ** 12,708 1.3 Manufacturing Employment (thousands) 36.0 0.2 35.9 (1.6) 36.5 (4.9) 38.4 (6.1) Single-family Permits (number) 13,553 15.4 11,743 (0.7) 11,829 14.3 10,348 15.9 Population (thousands) 1,928 1.3 1,903 1.3 1,879 1.3 1,855 1.2 Unemployment Rate 5.3 5.7 5.9 5.5 Basic data sources: Personal Income U.S. Department of Commerce; Wage & Salary Employment New Mexico Department of Labor; Retail Sales New Mexico Department of Taxation & Revenue; Manufacturing Employment New Mexico Department of Labor; Housing Permits U.S. Bureau of the Census; Population U.S. Bureau of the Census; Unemployment Rate New Mexico Department of Labor. Consensus Estimate N/A - not yet available ** Due to a change in the manner of calculation, it may not be appropriate to compare 2003 retail sales with previous years. JULY/AUGUST 2006 WESTERN BLUE CHIP 9 WESTERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC FORECAST OREGON Current $ Personal Income (millions) 2005 % change 2004 % change 2003 % change 2002 % change 116,889 6.5 109,757 5.6 103,890 2.0 101,882 2.9 Real Personal Income (millions) 104,468 3.8 100,610 2.9 97,734 (0.1) 97,795 1.1 Wage & Salary Employment (thousands) 1,647.8 3.4 1,593.7 2.0 1,562.2 (0.7) 1,572.5 (1.3) Manufacturing Employment (thousands) 206.0 3.3 199.5 2.3 194.9 (3.3) 201.6 (6.5) Single-family Permits (number) 24,925 16.6 21,372 13.7 18,799 4.6 17,977 10.9 Housing Permits (number) 31,864 13.8 28,000 7.3 26,103 15.8 22,543 7.1 Population (thousands) 3,641 1.4 3,591 0.8 3,563 1.1 3,522 1.4 Unemployment Rate 6.1 7.3 8.1 7.6 Basic data sources: Personal Income U.S. Department of Commerce; Wage & Salary Employment Oregon Employment Division; Manufacturing Employment Oregon Employment Division; Single-family Permits U.S. Bureau of the Census; Housing Permits U.S. Bureau of the Census; Population Portland State University; Unemployment Rate Oregon Employment Division. Consensus Estimate TEXAS Current $ Personal Income (millions) 2005 % change 2004 % change 2003 % change 2002 % change 742,074 7.5 690,588 6.1 650,875 3.9 626,604 1.1 Real Personal Income (millions) 663,217 4.8 633,038 3.4 612,305 1.8 601,468 (0.6) Wage & Salary Employment (thousands) 9,606.4 1.4 9,478.3 1.2 9,370.0 (0.5) 9,416.0 (1.0) Retail Sales (billions) 347.6 6.1 327.6 6.4 307.9 3.9 296.0 3.9 Manufacturing Employment (thousands) 889.6 0.0 889.5 (1.2) 900.0 (5.1) 948.7 (7.6) Single-family Permits (number) 165,579 16.8 141,810 6.6 133,077 10.3 120,644 8.3 Population (thousands) 22,860 1.7 22,472 1.7 22,099 1.7 21,722 1.8 Unemployment Rate 5.3 6.0 6.7 6.4 Basic data sources: Personal Income U.S. Department of Commerce; Wage & Salary Employment Texas Employment Commission; Gross Retail Sales Texas State Comptroller of Public Accounts; Manufacturing Employment Texas Employment Commission; Housing Permits U.S. Bureau of the Census; Population U.S. Bureau of the Census; Unemployment Rate Texas Employment Commission. Consensus Estimate UTAH Current $ Personal Income (millions) 2005 % change 2004 % change 2003 % change 2002 % change 69,299 7.6 64,399 6.8 60,298 3.7 58,172 2.8 Real Personal Income (millions) 61,935 4.9 59,032 4.1 56,725 1.6 55,838 1.0 Wage & Salary Employment (thousands) 1,144.2 3.7 1,103.2 2.7 1,074.1 0.1 1,073.4 (0.7) Retail Sales (millions) 21,409 5.2 20,351 8.2 18,809 2.1 18,356 3.4 Manufacturing Employment (thousands) 117.4 2.2 114.9 2.3 112.3 (1.4) 113.9 (6.6) Single-family Permits (number) 24,645 23.9 19,899 10.6 17,995 16.8 15,406 11.2 Population (thousands) 2,470 2.0 2,421 1.8 2,379 1.8 2,337 0.0 Unemployment Rate 4.3 5 5.6 5.8 Basic data sources: Personal Income U.S. Department of Commerce; Wage & Salary Employment Utah Department of Workforce Services; Retail Sales Utah State Tax Commission; Manufacturing Employment Utah Department of Workforce Services; Housing Permits University of Utah; Population U.S. Bureau of the Census; Unemployment Rate Utah Department of Workforce Services. Consensus Estimate 10 WESTERN BLUE CHIP JULY/AUGUST 2006 WESTERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC FORECAST W A S H I N G TO N Current $ Personal Income (millions) 2005 % change 2004 % change 2003 % change 2002 % change 222,643 2.4 217,503 7.9 201,607 2.1 197,452 2.0 Real Personal Income (millions) 198,983 (0.2) 199,378 5.1 189,660 0.1 189,531 0.3 Wage & Salary Employment (thousands) 2,763.2 2.4 2,698.2 1.5 2,657.8 0.1 2,654.1 (1.6) Retail Sales (millions) 98,552 9.3 90,139 4.6 86,165 2.1 84,418 (1.4) Manufacturing Employment (thousands) 267.1 1.4 263.5 (1.3) 267.1 (6.3) 285.0 (9.8) Single-family Permits (number) 40,928 11.2 36,815 6.8 34,480 4.2 33,090 17.6 Population (thousands) 6,288 1.3 6,207 1.2 6,131 1.1 6,066 1.2 Unemployment Rate 5.5 6.3 7.4 7.3 Basic data sources: Personal Income U.S. Department of Commerce; Wage & Salary Employment Washington State Employment Security; Taxable Retail Sales Washington Department of Revenue; Manufacturing Employment Washington State Employment Security; Housing Permits U.S. Department of the Census; Population U.S. Bureau of the Census; Unemployment Rate Washington State Employment Security. Consensus Estimate CONTRIBUTION TO GROSS STATE PRODUCT By Percentage Point, 2004 2.1 Construction Financial Activities 1.5 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 ID OR NV NM UT CA TX AZ CO WA Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.2 UE P BLHINSUS C NSE CO TM WESTERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC FORECAST Robert J. Eggert Sr., Executive Editor Dawn McLaren, Editor Tracy Clark, Managing Editor Lee McPheters, Contributing Editor Nancy A. Maneely, Editorial Coordinator WEWESTERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC FORECAST (ISSN 1042 6795) is publishedthe Bank One One Economic Outlook Center, an affiliate of the L. William STERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC FORECAST (ISSN 1042 6795) is published by by the Bank Economic Outlook Center, an affiliate of the L. William Seidman Seidman Research Institute, W. P. Carey School of Business, P.O. Box 874011, Tempe, AZ 85287-4011. 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Not printed or mailed at state expense Not printed or mailed at state expense JULY/AUGUST 2006 WESTERN BLUE CHIP 11 WESTERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC FORECAST The Adams Group Colorado Springs, Colorado Tucker Hart Adams Arizona Dept. of Commerce Phoenix, Arizona Kent Ennis Arizona Department of Economic Security Phoenix, Arizona Donald J. Wehbey Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee Phoenix, Arizona Staff Arizona Public Service Co. Phoenix, Arizona Pete Ewen Arizona State University Tempe, Arizona Tracy Clark California Legislative Analyst's Office Sacramento, California Brad Williams California State University Department of Economics Long Beach, California Joseph P. Magaddino Capital Corporation of the West Moraga, California Tapan Munroe Center for Business & Economic Forecasting Denver, Colorado Wilson D. Kendall Chapman University Orange, California Esmael Adibi Colorado Legislative Council Denver, Colorado Tom Dunn Colorado Office of Planning & Budgeting Denver, Colorado Maria Coe Conerly Consulting Portland, Oregon Bill Conerly Dick Conway & Associates Seattle, Washington Dick Conway Doug Pedersen & Associates Seattle, Washington Doug Pedersen Eastern New Mexico University Portales, New Mexico David Hemley ECON-LINC Phoenix, Arizona John Lucking EconLit LLC Phoenix, Arizona Dwight Duncan Econoclast Dallas, Texas Michael Cosgrove Economic Development Corp. of Los Angeles County Los Angeles, California Jack Kyser Eggert Economic Enterprises, Inc. Sedona, Arizona Robert J. Eggert, Sr. Elliott D. Pollack & Co. Scottsdale, Arizona Elliott Pollack Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Dallas, Texas Keith R. Phillips Forefront Economics Beaverton, Oregon Mark Thompson H. C. Reardon Economics Phoenix, Arizona H. C. Reardon Idaho Division of Financial Management Boise, Idaho Michael Ferguson Idaho Economics Boise, Idaho John Church New Mexico State University Las Cruces, New Mexico Chris Erickson Northern Arizona University Flagstaff, Arizona Dennis Foster, Ronald Gunderson & Max Jerrell Office of the Forecast Council Olympia, Washington Chang Mook Sohn UCLA Anderson Forecast Los Angeles, California Joseph Hurd University of Arizona, Eller College Tucson, Arizona Marshall Vest University of Colorado Boulder, Colorado Richard Wobbekind University of Houston Houston, Texas Barton Smith University of Nevada at Las Vegas Las Vegas, Nevada Keith Schwer University of Texas El Paso, Texas Tom Fullerton University of New Mexico Albuquerque, New Mexico Larry Waldman University of North Texas Center for Economic Development and Research Denton, Texas Bernard Weinstein University of the Pacific Stockton, California Sean Snaith Utah Dept. of Workforce Services Salt Lake City, Utah Mark Knold Utah State Tax Commission Salt Lake City, Utah Douglas Macdonald VisionEcon Phoenix, Arizona Debra J. Roubik Wells Fargo & Co. Minneapolis, Minnesota Ed Kashmarek & Scott Anderson Wells Fargo & Co. Salt Lake City, Utah Kelly K. Matthews Xcel Energy Denver, Colorado Tim Sheesley Oregon Executive Department Salem, Oregon Tom Potiowsky Pacificorp Salt Lake City, Utah Reed Davis Perryman Group Waco, Texas M. Ray Perryman Portland General Electric Portland, Oregon Ham Nguyen Public Service Co. of New Mexico Albuquerque, N.M. Kevin Konetzni Restrepo Consulting Group, LLC Las Vegas, Nevada John Restrepo Rhodes Econometrics West Linn, Oregon C. Wesley Rhodes Salt River Project Phoenix, Arizona Arlyn Herrera, Rebecca Holmes & Karen Wolfe Stellar Capital Management Phoenix, Arizona Stephen Taddie Southwest Gas Corp. Las Vegas, Nevada Jamie Cattanach Legislative Counsel Bureau, Fiscal Analysis Carson City, Nevada Ted Zuend The Maguire Co. Phoenix, Arizona Alan Maguire Metropolitan West Asset Management Phoenix, Arizona Neal Helm Texas State Comptroller of Public Accounts Austin, Texas Tamara R. Plaut & Gary Preuss Thredgold Economic Associates Salt Lake City, Utah Jeff K. Thredgold Nevada Dept. of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation Carson City, Nevada Peter Janson U.S. Bancorp Portland, Oregon John W. Mitchell 12 WESTERN BLUE CHIP JULY/AUGUST 2006 |
