Arizona's economy

              MAY







1996







SPRING







ISSUE







OUTLOOK FOR METRO PHOENIX REMAINS BRIGHT



Marshall J. Vest Forecasting Project Director April 1, 1996







he Phoenix-Mesa metro area continues to amaze. Last year matched, and in some cases surpassed, boom conditions of 1994. Population growth exploded and, after a lull in the first half of 1995, housing markets accelerated once again. Recent slowing in sales and employment growth suggest that a more normal-paced expansion will become established during 1996. We review the results below, but first, a look at recent revisions to the employment estimates.



EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES REVISED UPWARD



In its annual revisiting of previouslypublished estimates, the Arizona Department of Economic Security significantly boosted its estimates for the total number of jobs for the past two years. These revisions show that Arizona's economy remains one of the fastest-growing states in the nation. Some 22,400 additional jobs were added statewide to the preliminary 1995 estimate. That boosts the number of jobs created last year to nearly 91,000. Instead of the 4.5% increase originally reported, the revised gain is now 5.4%. Prior to the revision, Arizona ranked fourth among all states for job creation during 1995 with its preliminary 4.5% gain. Nevada led the nation with a 6.2 % gain. Utah was second with a 5.6% and New Mexico was







T







third with a 5.1% gain. After the revisions, Arizona moved up a notch to third place, ahead of New Mexico.1 In addition, some 7,000 jobs were added to 1994. When combined with last year's out-sized revisions, 1994's boost of 53,500 over the initial estimate is the largest upward revision ever. That puts the number of new jobs created during 1994 at 106,300, a percentage gain of 6.7%. That is the largest number of jobs ever created in Arizona in a single year. During this business expansion, which began five years ago, almost 300,000 jobs have been created. In its first revision to the 1995 estimates, DES found nearly 14,600 additional jobs in trade, 10,500 in services, and 2,700 in construction. Gains for all other major employment groups were revised downward. Manufacturing jobs, for example, instead of increasing by 8,400 as originally reported, are now estimated to have increased by only 2,600. That's 5,800 fewer jobs. Likewise for finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE), which is now estimated to have lost 2,400 jobs last year (Exhibit 1). Government payrolls increased by a whopping 12,100 in 1995. But that reflects a return to "normal" after an abnormally low estimate for 1994. In our analysis one year ago we stated, "Unbelievably, 10,000 jobs were subtracted from government. Federal government payrolls ... declined by







1995 WAS ANOTHER BANNER YEAR FOR THE PHOENIX-MESA METRO ECONOMY. IT'S AMAZING THAT AN AREA WITH OVER 2.5 MILLION PEOPLE CAN GROW SO RAPIDLY.







roughly 3000, [and] education employment during June and July of 1994 was significantly below normal seasonal levels, suggesting either a glitch or a change in the way teachers were counted during the summer recess. All of the problems occurred in the Phoenix-Mesa metro area and are reflected in the state-wide estimates." In the newly revised numbers, the glitch for 1994 remains, but the 1995 numbers appear back to normal, which explains the large increase. Estimates for Arizona's two largest metro areas also were revised  Phoenix-Mesa metro estimates were pushed higher, while







INSIDE







FORECAST TABLES ................5 CHARACTERISTICS OF ARIZONA'S HIGH TECH INDUSTRY ..........................6 ARIZONA ECONOMIC INDICATORS......................12







K A RL ELLE R G R AD U AT E S CHO OL OF M ANA GEM ENT  COL LE G E O F B U SINE SS AN D PU BL I C A DMI NI ST RA TI O N



T H E U N I V E R S I T Y OF A R I Z O N A TUCSON, ARIZONA







EXHIBIT 1 ARIZONA EMPLOYMENT CHANGES, 1995 VS 1994



(in thousands)







EXHIBIT 3 Help Wanted Index



Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area (1987=100)







Tucson's were largely unchanged (Exhibit 2). Job growth in the Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area was a robust 6.4% rather than 5.3%, while growth in Tucson is a modest 2.3%, slightly less than the originally-reported 2.6% gain. In the balance of the state, i.e., the areas outside of the two large metro areas, some 10,600 jobs were created last year, a gain of 4.1%. That compares to a 13,400, or 5.6%, increase in 1994.







PHOENIX-MESA METRO AREA: 1995 IN REVIEW



1995 was another banner year for the Phoenix-Mesa metro economy. It's amazing



EXHIBIT 2 Employment Increases 1994 to 1995



Percent Increase Arizona Revised Original Phoenix-Mesa MA Revised Original Tucson Metro Area Revised Original Balance of State Revised Original 5.4 4.5 6.4 5.3 2.3 2.6 4.1 3.2 Absolute Increase 90,900 75,600 73,500 59,900 6,800 7,500 10,600 8,200







that an area with over 2.5 million people can grow so rapidly. Even more amazing is that the boom has continued for a second consecutive year. Among the highlights:  Over 73,500 jobs were created during 1995, 300 more than during 1994's boom. 1984 is the only year with more  78,700. As a percentage, 1995's increase is 6.4%, which ranks the Phoenix area fifth among some 300-plus metro areas, many of which are much smaller! After moving to lower levels in early 1995, the index of help wanted advertising for Metro Phoenix surged to record levels as the year came to a close and that portends continued growth of payrolls in the coming months (Exhibit 3). The size of the gains should moderate as the year unfolds, however. Another 50,000 jobs should be added in 1996, a 4.1% increase.  Population increased by more than 105,000, the largest single-year gain ever recorded. Another 83,500 persons will be added in 1996.  Retail sales increased by 9.7% during the year. After adjusting for inflation, the real gain was 6.7%. Other than the increases of 11.5% and 7.1% increases in 1994 and 1993, respectively, this is the largest real increase since 1985. Consumers will moderate their spending in 1996: look for a current-dollar increase in the five to six percent range.







 Residential building permits totaled 36,400, about 1,800 units more than the prior year.2 That's the most since 1986, when 42,800 were issued(about 800 in Pinal County). Once again, Metro Phoenix was among the strongest new housing markets in the nation. Single family permits were a few hundred higher than the prior year, and that made 1995 the biggest year since 1978 (Exhibit 4). Going forward, one should look for 25,000 single family units to be built in 1996.  Sales of resale housing broke the all-time record set one year earlier with 36,800 homes sold. Sales mirrored movements in interest rates: sales declined during 1994 as rates moved higher, then increased to new highs as rates fell in 1995 (Exhibit 5). The average price of homes sold increased by six percent. As population flows subside and affordability deteriorates, fewer sales should be expected.







OUTLOOK FOR THE PHOENIXMESA METRO AREA



The Metro Phoenix economy has just experienced two back-to-back years of explosive growth. For rapid growth to continue for a third year would be unprecedented. So, in 1996, the Phoenix growth machine will cool, and rates of growth will return to more normal levels.



ARIZONA'S ECONOMY







PAGE TWO







EXHIBIT 4 Permits: Single Family Units



Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area







EXHIBIT 5 Multiple Listing Unit Sales



Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area







EXHIBIT 6 Wage & Salary Jobs



Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area (seasonally adjusted)







EXHIBIT 7 Total Housing Unit Permits



Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area







The manufacturing and construction industries (the two most volatile over the business cycle) will slow significantly. Population growth will also recede. Consumers are still optimistic about the future but they will be unable to maintain their spending spree of the last two years, and retail sales figures will cool significantly as the year progresses. The economy's rate of growth should recede further and fall "below average" in 1997.



AR IZ ON A 'S ECON O MY







In recent months, job growth has moved into the four percent range and that is what one should expect for the remainder of the year (Exhibit 6). About 50,000 new jobs in 1996 are expected. The largest increases will be recorded in services (21,000 jobs) and trade (8,000). Expansions at several manufacturing plants will boost payrolls by 7000, or 4.3% . That's about half of manufacturing's 1994 gain of 9.6%, but better than last year's gain of 1.6%.







The Phoenix area is the selected site of several new chip plants scheduled to be built during the second half of this decade. Projects include new plants and expansions at Intel, Motorola, Microchip Technology, SGS-Thompson Microelectronics, and Sumitomo Sitix. These projects, which typically mean several hundred million dollars of investment and thousands of highpaying jobs, bode well for Phoenix's future.







PA GE TH RE E







EXHIBIT 8 Annual Changes in Population and Nonag Employment



Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area







CONSU-MERS ARE STILL OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE FUTURE BUT THEY WILL BE UNABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR SPENDING SPREE OF THE LAST TWO YEARS







In recent months, however, soft sales of computers and reduced demand for chips, memory, etc. have led to downward revisions in industry forecasts. One project was recently canceled  Micron's $2 billion plant in Utah. And, the bellwether book-to-bill ratio for the semiconductor industry dropped below one in both January and February, which means that demand is shrinking. This development obviously needs monitoring. Housing markets, after retreating in the first half of 1995, have regained lost ground in recent months and moved to new highs for this business cycle. Single family building peaked in the spring of 1994 and drifted lower until 1995's first quarter, due primarily to higher interest rates. Then, as interest rates fell, single family building surged again and as 1996 began, permits were running in excess of 30,000 units at an annual rate. However, interest rates jumped in March and building activity will decline as the year unfolds. We look for 25-26,000 single family permits for all of 1996 (Exhibit 7). Over 8,100 apartment units were permitted in 1995, a jump of 26% from the prior year. Never-the-less, apartment vacancies remained



PA GE F OU R







at a sub-5% seasonally adjusted level in last year's 4th quarter. Going forward, the forecast calls for 7,100 apartments in 1996. Resale housing markets also recovered in late 1995, jumping to a record annual selling rate of 40,000 by year end. As with new construction, resales are expected to move lower as the year unfolds. Consumer confidence, as measured in a study by the Behavior Research Center in an on-going study sponsored by Stockton Capital Management of Scottsdale, remains near its peak for this business cycle, with a reading near 107 in the first quarter. But with consumer debt at high levels and pentup demand pretty well satisfied, consumer spending will moderate. Retail sales increased a strong 9.7% in 1995, but the pace was slowing as 1995 ended. We project an increase of five to six percent for all of 1996. Given the subdued rate of inflation  2.5% or so  that's a real gain of 2.5-3.5%. Phoenix-Mesa's population approached 2.6 million people in mid-1995, a gain of 4.2% from the prior year. A 3.2% increase is expected for 1996, representing some 83,500 new residents.







Further slowing is expected for the Phoenix economy in 1997. Job growth will recede to 3.6%, personal income will grow by only 6.0%, and retail sales will slow into the three to four percent range. Population will increase by 2.8%. The following year, 1998, promises more modestly-below-average growth. (Exhibit 8). Still, these numbers remain well above recession readings. The outlook for the Metro Phoenix area, indeed, remains bright. $



1 Blue Chip Job Growth Update, Economic Outlook Center, Arizona State University, various issues. 2 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, C-40 reports.







SPONSORS







Arizona Bank Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee Arizona Public Service Company Bank One of Arizona City of Tucson Government Estes Homebuilding Company First Interstate Bank of Arizona Pima County Government Salt River Project Tucson Electric Power Company Tucson Newspapers U S West Communications







ARIZONA'S ECONOMY







FORECAST







TABLES







Forecasts for Arizona Personal Income ($ mill) percent change Per Capita Personal Income percent change Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)* percent change Population (000s, mid-year) percent change Net Migration (000s) Wage & Salary Employment (000s) percent change Goods-Producing percent change Construction percent change Manufacturing percent change Service-Providing percent change Trade (Wholesale & Retail) percent change Services percent change Forecasts for Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area Personal Income ($ mill) percent change Per Capita Personal Income percent change Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)* percent change Population (000s, mid-year) percent change Net Migration (000s) Wage & Salary Employment (000s) percent change Goods-Producing percent change Construction percent change Manufacturing percent change Service-Providing percent change Trade (Wholesale & Retail) percent change Services percent change Forecasts for Tucson Metro Area Personal Income ($ mill) percent change Per Capita Personal Income percent change Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)* percent change Population (000s, mid-year) percent change Net Migration (000s) Wage & Salary Employment (000s) percent change Goods-Producing percent change Construction percent change Manufacturing percent change Service-Providing percent change Trade (Wholesale & Retail) percent change Services percent change



* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.







1994 78,049.8 8.7 19,169.1 5.6 35,108.8 10.8 4,071.6 3.0 87.2 1,693.4 6.8 310.5 11.8 108.3 21.5 190.3 7.9 1,382.9 5.7 416.9 7.0 484.7 7.6 1994 52,028.9 9.6 20,910.9 6.6 22,892.6 12.5 2,488.1 2.8 44.6 1,142.5 6.8 226.0 12.2 74.6 22.3 146.7 8.0 916.5 5.6 280.4 7.0 335.9 8.6 1994 13,307.9 8.5 18,018.5 5.8 6,067.4 9.2 738.6 2.6 13.8 294.6 7.0 47.4 13.2 18.9 20.8 26.4 9.7 247.2 5.9 67.8 6.7 88.3 6.1







1995 85,450.4 9.5 20,335.6 6.1 37,864.5 7.8 4,202.0 3.2 92.2 1,783.7 5.3 324.8 4.6 117.4 8.4 195.0 2.4 1,458.9 5.5 442.2 6.1 522.2 7.7 1995 56,893.6 9.4 21,934.1 4.9 24,966.9 9.1 2,593.8 4.2 81.7 1,215.2 6.4 235.8 4.3 81.6 9.4 149.0 1.6 979.4 6.9 306.2 9.2 363.5 8.2 1995 14,236.6 7.0 18,729.7 3.9 6,302.3 3.9 760.1 2.9 16.5 301.9 2.5 49.5 4.5 19.7 4.3 27.6 4.5 252.4 2.1 69.0 1.7 92.0 4.2







1996 91,563.8 7.2 21,169.6 4.1 40,294.6 6.4 4,325.2 2.9 78.1 1,850.8 3.8 334.2 2.9 122.1 4.0 199.2 2.2 1,516.6 4.0 457.7 3.5 550.2 5.4 1996 60,974.0 7.2 22,773.7 3.8 26,445.3 5.9 2,677.4 3.2 58.5 1,264.9 4.1 244.3 3.6 83.7 2.6 155.4 4.3 1,020.6 4.2 318.9 4.2 384.3 5.7 1996 14,908.9 4.7 19,205.6 2.5 6,657.6 5.6 776.3 2.1 10.9 307.6 1.9 48.7 -1.6 19.4 -1.4 27.1 -1.8 258.9 2.6 70.3 1.9 95.8 4.1







1997 97,484.1 6.5 21,953.2 3.7 41,899.8 4.0 4,440.5 2.7 72.8 1,910.6 3.2 339.3 1.5 121.5 -0.5 204.9 2.8 1,571.3 3.6 470.5 2.8 580.5 5.5 1997 64,659.3 6.0 23,482.7 3.1 27,437.9 3.8 2,753.5 2.8 50.0 1,309.9 3.6 251.8 3.1 84.9 1.3 161.7 4.1 1,058.2 3.7 328.0 2.8 406.2 5.7 1997 15,652.1 5.0 19,756.4 2.9 6,925.2 4.0 792.3 2.1 10.6 315.3 2.5 48.3 -0.8 19.0 -2.4 27.2 0.6 267.0 3.1 72.1 2.6 100.6 5.0







1998 103,433.8 6.1 22,718.4 3.5 43,551.4 3.9 4,552.9 2.5 70.1 1,966.5 2.9 342.8 1.0 121.4 -0.1 208.5 1.8 1,623.6 3.3 482.0 2.4 611.2 5.3 1998 68,582.6 6.1 24,257.9 3.3 28,503.1 3.9 2,827.2 2.7 46.6 1,348.4 2.9 255.2 1.4 84.8 -0.1 165.2 2.2 1,093.1 3.3 336.1 2.4 426.8 5.1 1998 16,576.5 5.9 20,470.9 3.6 7,207.1 4.1 809.8 2.2 12.0 324.3 2.9 48.9 1.2 19.2 1.0 27.7 1.5 275.4 3.1 74.1 2.8 105.7 5.1







Source: Economic and Business Research Program, Karl Eller Graduate School of Management, College of Business and Public Administration, The University of Arizona







ARIZONA'S ECONOMY







PAGE FIVE







CHARACTERISTICS OF ARIZONA'S HIGH TECH INDUSTRY



Julie Leones, Ph.D., Department of Resource and Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture Alberta Charney, Ph.D., Economic and Business Research, College of Business and Public Administration October, 1995







TABLE 1 When survey firms were established



Number Established Prior to 1951 1951-1959 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990-1994 Total 12 3 13 17 35 13 93 % 13 3 14 18 38 14 100% No. Established in Arizona % 3 9 8 20 41 14 95 3 9 8 21 43 15 100%







n the February 1996 issue of this publication, the high technology industry in Arizona was defined and its economic impact was assessed. In this article, we summarize the results of a survey of high technology firms.1 While the focus of the previous article was to determine the influence of the high technology industry on Arizona's economy, this article provides insights into the nature of the industry, in terms of its organizational structure, its research and development effort, its purchasing and selling patterns, as well as the characteristics and payscale of its workers.



A total of 613 questionnaires were sent to firms that met the definition of high technology that was outlined the February article. The overall response rate for the survey was 15.7%. However, because of an 82% response rate among the largest firms, a large share (55%) of total industry employment is captured in the survey. Most of the figures in this article have been calculated by weighting them by total employment in each responding firm. The exception to this is when figures on the number of firms are reported. These have not been weighted by employment and are presented as surveyed firm results. survey firms began in Arizona. These predominantly smaller firms provided an estimated 11% of total jobs in the industry. Over two-thirds of the survey firms operated out of a single location. Seventeen percent had branch plants in Arizona but headquarters located in another state. Six percent were headquartered in Arizona but had no other Arizona facilities and 8% had both headquarters and other facilities in Arizona. Of the 870 branches that the survey firms operated, 13% are in Arizona, 53% are in other states and 34% are in other countries (Figure 1). Several questions in the survey asked firms to describe some of the relationships within their business and between their business and other businesses. One of the first questions concerned where decisions about hiring workers and purchasing inputs were made. Overall, for those firms that had more than one location, 23% indicated that hiring decisions were made at the company headquarters and 26% indicated that purchasing decisions were made at company headquarters (Figure 2). Forty-two percent and 35%, respectively, indicated that hiring and purchasing decisions were made at individual facilities or branch plants. A large percentage (35% for hiring and 39% for purchasing) of the firms indicated that these decisions were made at both locations.







I







FIGURE 1 Location of Branch Facilities







TABLE 2 Firms involved in new forms of business relations



Type of Relationship Exclusive subcontractor to Exclusive buyer of inputs Key inputs available from one seller Product bundling with Joint R&D ventures Share development or engineering resources License technology to Buy technology licenses from Other Number of firms reporting Involved with Involved with AZ firm Non-AZ firm



(percentages)







16 14 15 7 20 20 10 9 10% 81







19 12 35 19 32 26 21 19







INDUSTRY ORGANIZATION



The high technology industry is characterized by a large number of young firms. Fiftyeight percent of the sample firms began operations in Arizona in the past 15 years (since 1980) and 52% of the sample firms did not exist in any state or country prior to 1980 (Table 1). Despite their relatively young age, 63% of the facilities described by the survey firms had been located somewhere other than their current location. Seventy percent of the firms that relocated moved from another location in Arizona (26% of the firms did not indicate where they had moved from). Seventy-one percent of the



PAGE SIX







TABLE 3 Workers in R&D by sector and firm size



Sector Electronic components and computers All Small Medium Large Firms Firms Firms Firms



(percentages of total workers)







17







11 16 24 15







13 7 30 18







18 25 NA 20







Aerospace, instruments and chemicals 22 High technology services Total 22 20







ARIZONA'S ECONOMY







TABLE 4 R&D expenditures as a percentage of total sales



Number of firms Less than 1% 1-3% 4-5% 6-8% 9-12% 13-25% Greater than 25% Total 14 13 10 12 13 15 9 86 Percent 16 15 12 14 15 17 11 100%







TABLE 5 Expenditures by high technology industry



Expenditure Category Wages and benefits Materials and supplies Equipment Buildings and land State taxes Utilities Other1 Total



1







Amount



(in billions of $)







% of Total 40 33 14 3 2 2 6 100%







TABLE 6 Arizona expenditures as a percentage of total expenditures by category



Category Equipment Materials and supplies Other Total1



1







4.360 3.635 1.517 0.307 0.250 0.215 0.702 10.986







In Arizona 29 39 33 60







Outside Arizona 71 61 67 40







In Arizona 0.440 1.418 0.232 6.592







Outside Arizona 1.077 2.217 0.470 4.394







(percent)







(billions of $)







Includes federal taxes, transfer payments, and other expenses.







Includes all expenses described in the previous table. However, expenses occurred outside Arizona in only three categories of expense.







A variety of business relationships exist between high technology firms and other firms. In addition, because high technology industries use very sophisticated inputs that are often custom-made for specific end products, questions were asked about subcontracting and licensing agreements. The responses of the sample firms are presented in Table 2. Some of the most common relationships are: a firm is purchasing key inputs that are available from only one seller who is located outside of Arizona; the firm is involved in joint R&D ventures with a firm outside of Arizona; or the firm shares development or engineering resources with a firm outside of Arizona. Although the percentage of firms involved in any one of these special relationships with other firms is low, over two-thirds of the firms were involved in one or more of these affiliations. Those firms with special relationships with other firms were involved in an average of four different types of alliances. Another issue related to business relations is the buyer-seller relationships within and between high technology industry sectors. For the sample firms, a large number of these relationships existed between the largest firms in the high technology sector and all high technology firms. Overall, 48% of the surveyed firms indicated that they purchased inputs from one of 14 large firms. Fifty-three percent indicated that they sell to, or are input suppliers to, these 14 firms. The 14 large firms listed on the survey were Alcatel Information Systems, Allied Signal, Bull Worldwide Information Systems, Burr-Brown, Digital Equipment, IBM(Adstar), Intel, AT&T Network Cable Systems, McDonnell Douglas Helicopter Division, MicroAge, Motorola, Honeywell, Hughes Missile, and TRW Vehicle Safety Systems.



A R IZ ON A 'S E CON OMY







Ten percent of all survey firms indicated that the 14 large firms were among their five largest input suppliers. However, on the other side of the relationship, 31% of all survey firms indicated that one or more of these large firms was among their five largest customers in terms of dollar value of sales.



FIGURE 2 Where purchasing and hiring decisions are made in multilocation firms







The implications of this are that the largest high technology firms, in addition to providing a large share of employment and value added in the industry, are also important purchasers of products from other high technology firms in the state. While these large firms are also suppliers of inputs to almost half of all high technology firms in Arizona, they are not among the five largest suppliers to these firms.







RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT



Approximately 20% of all employees in the high technology industry are believed to work in research and development (R&D). This varies somewhat by sector and by the size of the firm, as evident in Table 3. In particular, a high percentage of workers in electronic components, computers and computer software, and services are involved in R&D. As might be expected, the share of employees involved in R&D is larger for large firms (with more than 1,000 employees) than for medium and small sized firms (Table 3). In the case of aerospace, missiles, instruments and chemicals, small firms had a higher percentage of employees working in R&D than medium firms. In the other sectors, small firms had the smallest share of workers in R&D. The median size of R&D expenditures as a percentage of total sales is approximately six to eight percent for the survey firms. The distribution of firms according to their R&D expenditures was similar for small firms when compared to medium and large firms. In particular, almost 28% of the responding firms spent 13% or more of total sales on R&D. On the other end of the spectrum, 16% spent less than one percent of total sales on R&D (Table 4).



P AG E SE VE N







FIGURE 3 Sources of R&D funds







TABLE 7 Sales by destination



Sector Electronic components and computers Aerospace, instruments and chemicals High technology services High technology industry TOTAL AZ 2 7 31 7 Sold to: CA 3 4 1 3 Rest of U.S. 57 57 50 56 Mexico 2 2 0 2 Japan 8 3 1 5 Asia 11 7 7 9 Rest of Europe 18 12 9 14 Other







TABLE 9 Sales that are inputs versus final products



Sector 1 8 2 4 Electronic components & computers Aerospace & missiles Instruments Chemicals Computer software & services Research services 78 34 62 95 67 18 45 Inputs Final Products



(percentages)







(percentages)







22 66 38 5 33 82 55







TABLE 8 Destination of Arizona exports, by sector, 1993*



Chemicals SIC-28 Fab. Metal Prod. (incl Ordnance) SIC-34 Industrial Mach (incl. Computers) SIC-35 Electronic Equipment SIC-36 Trans. Equip. Aerospace Instruments SIC-37 SIC-38 Electronic Equipment & Computers SIC35+36 Aerospace, Instruments & Chemicals OTHER







Total



TOTAL







(percent distribution)







World Canada Mexico Japan EUROPE Rest of ASIA Other







100 15 33 18 21 9 3



SIC-28







100 7 77 1 6 8 1



SIC-34







100 8 29 6 33 18 6



SIC-35







100 5 10 14 26 43 2



SIC-36







100 7 32 1 25 32 3



(in millions of $) SIC-37







100 11 6 5 55 20 3



SIC-38







100 6 14 12 28 37 3



SIC35+36







100 8 32 3 28 25 3



OTHER







100 6 17 11 28 35 3



TOTAL







World Canada Mexico Japan EUROPE Rest of ASIA Other







78.9 12.1 26.3 14.2 16.6 7.0 2.7







247.6 16.0 192.2 1.5 14.0 20.9 2.9







831.4 66.2 241.2 50.8 276.0 143.8 53.4







3,224.1 173.6 329.1 453.8 843.7 1,373.1 50.8







1,160.0 77.1 378.9 12.9 290.0 369.6 31.4







426.4 47.0 26.6 21.2 232.3 85.2 14.2







4,055.6 239.7 570.3 504.7 1,119.7 1,516.9 104.2







1,912.8 152.3 623.9 49.8 553.0 482.7 51.2







9,945.1 619.6 1,738.3 1,044.9 2,775.9 3,509.4 257.0







* Export data is only available at the two-digit SIC level. Only portions of all of these two-digit sectors (except 38) are high technology.







Source: Derived from the National Trade Data Base, University of Massachusetts, MISER Files







FIGURE 4 Sources of technology for high technology survey firms







Firms relied heavily on internal sources of funds for their research. Eighty-seven percent of all research funding for the survey firms came from internal sources. The next most significant source was the U.S. Department of Defense which provided approximately ten percent of funding for research (Figure 3). In addition to doing their own research, companies have the option of acquiring technology from other sources. Eighty-one percent of the respondents indicated that they rely on sources of technology within the firm. However, 28% of the survey firms indicated that they acquired technology from private for-profit entities in Arizona and 20% acquired technologies from universities or research facilities (Figure 4). Small and medium-sized firms tend to be less likely to develop technology within the company than are larger firms. Smaller firms also tend to be more likely to acquire technologies within Arizona rather than outside it.







EXPENDITURES



The estimated expenditures of high technology industry in several broad categories are presented in Table 5. Some of the major expenditures are on wages and benefits (40% of total expenditures) and on materials and supplies (33% of total expenditures). Smaller expenditure categories include $250 million paid in state taxes, $215 million spent on utilities and $702 million in miscellaneous spending. Of these total expenditures, 60% or $6.592 billion were made in Arizona (Table 6). The total materials and supplies purchased in Arizona were valued at $1.418 billion in 1994. This represents approximately 39% of all materials and supplies purchased by high technology firms.



PAGE EIGHT ARIZONA'S ECONOMY







FIGURE 5 Distribution of employment by task or department







TABLE 10 Sales by type of purchasing agreement



Informal Formal Purchasing Subcontracts Agreements Electronic components & computers Aerospace & missiles Instruments Chemicals Computer software & services Research services Total



(percentages)







FIGURE 6 Education and attainment of high technology industry employees



Other







77 94 88 67 42 45 78







23 0 11 33 54 55 20







0 6 1 0 4 0 2







Over the past five years, high technology industry has spent an estimated $1.202 billion on construction. An estimated 17% of all capital equipment in the industry was purchased in the past one year, 56% was purchased in the past five years and 87% has been purchased in the last ten years.







MARKETING



High technology firms are important contributors to international exports from Arizona. High technology foreign exports from Arizona were approximately $5.369 billion in 1994.2 This represents an estimated 63% of total foreign exports from the state. Only approximately seven percent of total sales in the high technology industry remains in the state of Arizona. Other important export markets are described in Table 7. About 59% of total sales remain in the U.S. in states other than Arizona. Of the remaining 34% that is exported overseas, 14% is sent to Europe and 14% is exported to Asia. These represent two of the largest markets for high technology products from Arizona. Japan alone is a market for roughly five percent of total high technology exports from Arizona. As might be expected, high technology services sell a higher percentage of their services within the United States, but still have exports totaling 18% of total sales. The electronic components and computers sector is the most export-oriented with 38% of total sales abroad. Note that the export estimates based on the survey differ somewhat from published export data for Arizona. Table 8 presents the destination of Arizona exports, by twoA R IZO N A' S E CO N OMY







digit sector for 1993. The percentages of exports going to Mexico and the Rest of Asia in Table 8 are substantially higher than the percentages of exports going to these regions as reported by survey firms and reported in Table 7. The reason for this is that survey firms reported distribution of the sale of final products but Table 8 reports the value of all shipments leaving the state for these







FOR THOSE FIRMS THAT SOLD FINAL OR FINISHED PRODUCTS TO THE END USERS OF THAT PRODUCT, ALMOST A QUARTER WERE SOLD TO THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE







destinations. Thus, Table 8 includes shipments of components or intermediate goods to Mexico and Rest of Asia that are destined for further assembly, not for final sale. The difference in the percentages of exports reflect the maquiladora operations in Mexico and off-shore assembly in parts of Southeast Asia. The percentage of total sales of inputs (or components) versus final products varies significantly by sector (Table 9). Research services and aerospace and missiles tended to have a larger percentage of sales in final







products. Overall, 45% of high technology sales were of inputs or components and 55% were of final products. For those firms that sold inputs or components, 78% were sold based on formal sub-contracts with the buying firms (Table 10). The high technology service sectors tended to rely more on informal purchasing agreements (representing about 55-66% of their total sales) than on formal subcontracts. Over 88% of total sales of inputs or components were made to large firms with more than 1,000 employees (Table 11). Only high technology chemicals and services tended to sell a large percentage of their inputs/components to small and medium-sized firms. For those firms that sold final or finished products to the end users of that product, almost a quarter were sold to the U.S. Department of Defense (Table 12). Although this percentage may be lower than if this survey had been conducted ten years ago, it still indicates a significant dependency on defense contracts in Arizona's high technology industry. See Table 13 for real defense contracts in Arizona for various years from 1971 to 1992. The highest percentage of sales of final products to the U.S. Military are for high technology services, aerospace and missiles, and electronic components and computers. Clearly, the U.S. Department of Defense is not only an important customer for firms in aerospace and missiles, but also for other producers of high technology products and services. Almost two-thirds of the value of all high technology products and services are custommade for the buyer. Virtually all products



PAGE NI NE







TABLE 11 Sales of inputs by size of purchasing firm



Small firms Medium firms Large firms (less than 100 (101 to 1,000 (over 1,000 workers) workers) workers) Electronic components & computers Aerospace & missiles Instruments Chemicals



(percentages)







TABLE 12 Sales of final products by type of customer



US Military Department of Defense Electronic components & computers Aerospace & missiles Instruments Chemicals Computer software & services Research services Total Non-military federal All other agencies customers



(percentages)







TABLE 13 Arizona prime contract awards



Year 1992 71 70 85 99 9 97 72 1991 1985 Contract Awards Real $ 1994



(in thousands)







2,055,509 2,731,774 3,360,500 1,440,179 1,699,664 1,535,688







2 0 2 24







9 1 5 27 1 24 8







89 99 93 49 78 56 88







27 29 11 0 55 1 24







2 1 4 1 36 2 4







1979 1975 1974







Computer software & services 21 Research services 20 Total 4







Derived from: U.S. Department of Defense, Prime Contract Awards; Balancing the Books: Military Spending in Arizona by Nina Mohit; and The Rise of Military-Industrial Spending in Arizona 1970-1972 by David A. Tansik and R. Bruce Billings.







FIGURE 7 Employment in high technology industries by occupation







in the aerospace and missiles sector are custom-made (Table 14). In addition, sales in the high technology industry are fairly concentrated. On average, almost one-fourth of a high technology firm's sales are to its largest customer. Almost half of all the firm's sales are to its five largest customers (Table 15). Thus, the major buyers of high technology products and services have significant bargaining power.







EMPLOYMENT



Direct employment in the high technology industry as defined here was approximately 95,099 in 1994. The high technology industry



PAGE TEN







is a high-wage employer in Arizona, with an average payroll of $38,896 per employee. Not surprisingly, the industry is a major employer of engineers, scientists, computer specialists and professionals (Figure 7). Over a quarter of all doctoral scientists and engineers estimated to work in the state of Arizona are employed in the high technology industry.3 Over a third of the high technology workers have a four year college degree or higher (Figure 6). A large percentage of the work force is involved in research and development as mentioned earlier (Figure 5). Approximately 20-25% of the total high technology work force is involved in research







and development work. However, over half of all employees in the high technology industry have at most a high school degree. Per employee wages and salaries by occupation are presented in Table 16. Several of the largest high technology firms did not provide information on this question, hence, it reflects more of the average pay per employee for small and medium-sized firms. Drawing on secondary data sources, the average payroll per employee for all industries in Arizona in 1992 was $21,925 (1992 County Business Patterns). The average payroll per employee for the high technology industry was $38,376 per employee in 1992. Estimated 1994 high technology payroll per employee was $38,896 in 1994. Our survey results indicate wages and salaries per employee of $37,000. Clearly, the high technology industry provides high wages to its employees compared to other industries in Arizona. Several of the largest high technology firms in Arizona are noted for their employee training programs. Motorola is especially well known for its employee education and training programs. High technology firms spend an average of $900 per employee on training each year. Fifty-three percent of this was spent on in-house training. Total employee training expenditures by high technology firms were estimated at $86 million in 1994. The highest training expenditure is for in-house or on-the-job training. For 12% of the firms responding to this question, it was the only type of training indicated. The next highest expenditure for training was generally for sending employees to seminars, meetings and workshops. The third and



AR I ZO NA 'S EC ONO M Y







TABLE 14 Sales in custom versus standard products/services



Custom made for the buying firm Standardized product







TABLE 15 Sales to largest customers



Sales to largest Sales to five customer largest customers



(average percentages)







Sector Electronic components & computers







Sector Electronic components & computers Aerospace & missiles Instruments Chemicals Computer software & services Research services Total







(percentages)







21 36 18 31 12 24







46 57 52 40 22 49







55 100 81 71 26 32 66







45 0 19 29 74 68 34







Aerospace & missiles Instruments & chemicals Computer software & services Research services Total







TABLE 16 Payroll per employee by occupation



Occupation Payroll per Employee



($)







Executives and managers Professionals (lawyers, accountants, etc.) Engineers, scientists and mathematicians Computer programmers, specialists and analysts Sales representatives Skilled workers (mechanics, craftsmen and machinists) Production workers (assemblers, fabricators, operators) Unskilled workers (material handlers, laborers) Clerical workers All workers







57,220 46,351 50,759 46,268 24,750 28,477 28,168 14,825 32,492 37,000







fourth highest expenditures were for providing incentives/support for employees to complete additional course work or degrees and to bring in consultants to train employees.







firms because approximately one-third of final sales of this industry is in foreign exports. The survey results also document the degree of the high technology industry's dependency on the defense industry. The U.S. Department of Defense purchases approximately one quarter of the industry's final sales and also plays an important role in funding research and development. Although there is some evidence that Arizona's dependency on defense has declined in recent years, the state continues to have risk associated with federal defense cuts. The study found strong ties among high technology firms and between high technology firms and other sectors in the economy. The survey also found significantly higher levels of in-state purchases than were found in previous studies of Arizona and a wider variety of relationships among high technology firms.$ The growth of high technology in Arizona will be the subject in the next issue of Arizona's Economy.



1 Copies of the complete study are available from the authors, from Frank Plencner at the Arizona Department of Commerce, GSPED office (602)280-1499, and from the Internet at http://ag.arizona.edu/AREC/arechome.html. The study was sponsored by The Governor's Arizona Science and Technology Council and The Governor's Strategic Partnership for Economic Development. Funds to support the project came from the following companies: Arizona Electronics Association; Apollo Group, Inc.; Arizona Public Service Company; Hughes Missile Systems; Intel Corporation; Inter-Tel, Inc.; Lansdale Semiconductor, Inc.; MechTronics of Arizona, Inc.; Medtronic Micro-Rel, Inc.; Meyer, Hendricks, Victor, Osborn, and Maledon; MicroAge, Inc.; Motorola, Inc.; Pillar Financial; Quarles and Brady; SGS - Thompson Microelectronics, Inc.; Simula, Inc.; Snell and Wilmer; Tally Defense Systems; Three-Five Systems, Inc.; Tiffany & Hoffman; and Tucson Electric Power. 2 This estimate is based on the University of Massachusetts MISER files and information fro the Arizona Department of Commerce, International Trade Office, not on information from the survey. 3 Based on National Science Foundation figures on doctoral scientists and engineers in Arizona in 1991 and survey data.







THE GROWTH OF HIGH TECHNOLOGY IN ARIZONA WILL BE THE SUBJECT IN THE NEXT ISSUE OF ARIZONA'S ECONOMY







CONCLUSION



In this article, numerous characteristics of Arizona's high technology industry are described and measured. Several of the survey results have significant implications for Arizona's economy. Since the high technology industry is an extremely important sector in our economy, it's continued growth and stability is critical to the health of Arizona's economy. Arizona's economy is closely tied to the international competitiveness of our high technology



ARIZONA'S ECONOMY







PAGE ELEVEN







ARIZONA







ECONOMIC







INDICATORS







NOV 95 YUMA METROPOLITAN REGION Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Mining Construction Manufacturing Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Trade Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bar Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge Total Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge Total One Family Houses MOHAVE-LA PAZ REGION Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Mining Construction Manufacturing Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Trade Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bar Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge Total Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge Total One Family Houses See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.



PAGE TWELVE







DEC 95 61,116 49,060 12,056 19.7 37,800 0 1,700 1,400 1,900 13,000 1,200 8,900 9,700 93,028 76,606 9,335 7,087 6,336 10,173 22,484 3,737 15,652 3,095 52 52







JAN 96 59,825 48,000 11,825 19.8 37,100 0 1,700 1,400 1,800 12,300 1,200 9,200 9,500 73,724 57,585 8,460 7,679 6,737 9,719 14,625 3,622 3,569 7,434 46 46







FEB 96 59,950 49,800 10,150 16.9 37,000 0 1,600 1,400 1,800 12,200 1,200 9,300 9,500 75,789 58,426 9,637 7,726 6,765 9,498 10,323 4,525 1,874 3,924 65 65







MAR 96 57,275 46,800 10,475 18.3 37,100 0 1,600 1,400 1,800 12,200 1,200 9,400 9,500 ... ... ... ... ... ... 7,672 6,034 798 840 87 72







% change versus year ago for: most most recent recent month 12-months -6.9 -3.1 -20.7 -14.8 0.8 ... -5.9 0.0 0.0 -2.4 -7.7 8.0 1.1 -0.4 -3.8 11.9 13.9 14.6 10.4 -24.9 30.5 -13.1 -82.0 42.6 18.0 1.9 8.2 -11.3 -13.7 6.5 ... -5.2 -13.6 10.8 6.2 -1.4 12.6 7.9 4.1 4.3 2.4 4.4 4.3 -3.8 17.9 -0.5 44.4 17.4 1.5 0.1







63,760 48,944 14,816 23.2 37,400 0 1,700 1,400 1,800 12,700 1,200 8,900 9,700 71,682 59,502 6,486 5,694 5,387 8,268 7,807 4,276 2,584 947 55 55







67,647 63,144 4,503 6.7 38,200 200 2,700 3,700 2,000 11,500 1,500 9,200 7,400 73,153 55,986 9,141 8,026 7,593 12,516 13,873 9,271 3,079 1,523 121 117







67,032 62,584 4,448 6.6 37,800 200 2,700 3,700 2,000 11,500 1,400 8,900 7,400 88,065 68,517 10,119 9,429 8,430 14,823 11,654 8,709 681 2,264 110 108







66,900 62,025 4,875 7.3 37,900 200 2,700 3,700 2,000 11,300 1,400 9,100 7,500 78,626 54,220 10,533 13,873 12,170 11,764 16,953 9,076 2,372 5,505 102 102







67,025 62,050 4,975 7.4 37,800 200 2,600 3,700 2,000 11,000 1,500 9,300 7,500 81,033 58,334 11,697 11,002 9,633 15,613 25,804 9,201 547 16,056 111 111







67,975 63,150 4,825 7.1 37,700 200 2,600 3,500 2,000 11,200 1,500 9,400 7,300 ... ... ... ... ... ... 14,886 11,455 1,194 2,237 133 133







9.1 9.5 4.1 -4.5 0.8 0.0 -13.3 -2.8 11.1 0.9 -6.3 4.4 2.8 8.0 1.9 10.1 53.6 54.7 16.5 -29.0 -13.5 -62.9 -50.2 -13.6 -10.1







9.2 11.4 -14.4 -21.6 5.3 71.4 -1.8 3.7 13.8 4.2 -11.8 5.2 12.3 7.2 5.7 7.1 16.2 15.4 -7.7 -14.1 -19.4 -38.6 39.6 -18.9 -18.1







ARIZONA'S ECONOMY







ARIZONA







ECONOMIC







INDICATORS







NOV 95 COCHISE-SANTA CRUZ REGION Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Mining Construction Manufacturing Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Trade Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bar Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge Total Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge Total One Family Houses GILA-GRAHAM-GREENLEE REGION Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Mining Construction Manufacturing Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Trade Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bar Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge Total Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge Total One Family Houses See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.



AR IZ ON A 'S ECON O MY







DEC 95 57,099 50,830 6,269 11.0 41,700 100 2,000 2,100 2,300 11,300 900 8,800 14,200 73,632 58,832 8,588 6,212 5,554 13,090 5,100 4,676 100 324 60 60







JAN 96 57,350 50,325 7,025 12.2 41,600 0 2,000 2,100 2,300 11,300 900 8,800 14,200 57,296 41,759 8,032 7,505 6,584 9,206 7,841 5,683 908 1,250 72 72







FEB 96 57,400 50,775 6,625 11.5 41,700 0 2,000 2,100 2,300 11,100 900 8,900 14,400 58,234 44,486 7,850 5,898 5,165 10,024 20,238 19,669 220 349 63 63







MAR 96 56,850 50,700 6,150 10.8 41,900 0 2,000 2,100 2,300 11,000 900 9,100 14,500 ... ... ... ... ... ... 19,388 13,341 1,498 4,549 112 112







% change versus year ago for: most most recent recent month 12-months 3.1 3.6 -0.8 -3.8 4.0 -100.0 5.3 5.0 4.5 -5.2 -10.0 7.1 11.5 -4.5 -6.1 -4.6 9.1 9.8 -11.2 10.4 104.1 3.1 -52.5 12.0 12.0 4.1 5.9 -7.3 -11.1 3.4 -25.0 8.2 2.5 2.3 -2.5 -6.6 8.2 6.3 -5.1 -7.1 -0.1 4.7 4.1 7.3 -29.7 35.8 -73.8 -60.0 19.0 1.1







58,204 51,789 6,415 11.0 42,000 100 2,000 2,100 2,200 11,200 900 9,200 14,300 56,724 44,972 7,245 4,507 4,263 9,518 9,381 8,849 391 141 108 108







35,982 33,430 2,552 7.1 25,800 2,800 1,700 1,900 800 5,600 600 5,100 7,300 36,349 28,725 4,610 3,014 2,851 9,497 8,182 3,228 740 4,214 38 36







35,697 33,165 2,532 7.1 26,000 2,800 1,700 2,000 800 5,600 600 5,100 7,400 42,805 34,384 4,713 3,708 3,315 9,413 3,915 2,937 75 903 31 31







35,750 32,725 3,025 8.5 25,700 2,800 1,800 2,000 800 5,400 500 5,100 7,300 34,497 26,588 4,487 3,422 3,002 9,107 9,107 2,753 882 5,472 35 35







35,750 32,875 2,875 8.0 25,600 2,800 1,800 2,000 800 5,300 500 5,100 7,300 32,916 24,685 4,604 3,627 3,176 8,707 5,447 3,099 143 2,205 34 34







35,325 32,575 2,750 7.8 25,800 2,800 1,700 2,000 800 5,300 500 5,100 7,600 ... ... ... ... ... ... 6,476 4,248 962 1,266 46 46







5.7 6.5 -3.6 -8.8 7.5 3.7 0.0 11.1 14.3 -3.6 -16.7 24.4 10.1 19.8 21.7 7.1 25.5 26.4 6.0 39.8 111.2 ... -51.7 70.4 70.4







9.0 10.3 -4.6 -12.5 8.8 -9.0 10.1 5.0 4.4 5.5 13.3 22.6 12.2 9.3 9.9 6.5 8.1 7.4 -1.7 5.6 15.9 -29.1 27.1 16.5 2.3







PAGE THIRTEEN







ARIZONA







ECONOMIC







INDICATORS







NOV 95 APACHE-NAVAJO REGION Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Mining Construction Manufacturing Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Trade Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bar Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge Total Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge Total One Family Houses COCONINO-YAVAPAI REGION Civilian Labor Force, ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, ADES Total Mining Construction Manufacturing Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Trade Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Gross Retail Retail Restaurants & Bar Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Contracting Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge Total Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building Number of Dwelling Units Awarded, F.W. Dodge Total One Family Houses See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.



PAGE FOURTEEN







DEC 95 50,299 43,643 6,656 13.2 40,700 1,000 1,700 1,700 2,900 6,800 1,400 11,200 14,000 57,507 45,772 4,494 7,241 6,474 7,702 18,595 1,535 7,692 9,368 18 18







JAN 96 50,750 42,750 8,000 15.8 39,800 900 1,700 1,700 2,800 6,600 1,400 10,700 14,000 48,906 38,023 3,740 7,143 6,266 7,348 3,593 1,510 210 1,873 20 20







FEB 96 50,675 42,850 7,825 15.4 40,300 900 1,700 1,700 2,900 6,700 1,400 10,800 14,200 46,396 35,807 3,970 6,619 5,796 6,130 14,436 1,832 9,175 3,429 23 23







MAR 96 50,200 42,400 7,800 15.5 40,500 900 1,700 1,700 2,900 6,700 1,500 10,900 14,200 ... ... ... ... ... ... 5,820 2,485 2,000 1,335 28 28







% change versus year ago for: most most recent recent month 12-months 2.2 2.0 3.7 1.4 3.6 -10.0 13.3 0.0 3.6 1.5 7.1 1.9 6.0 -85.4 -88.4 3.3 13.0 13.8 12.3 -62.6 -19.9 -59.1 -82.4 -12.5 -12.5 3.9 5.0 -1.4 -5.2 2.2 -2.5 2.1 -11.1 0.3 1.6 16.6 1.2 4.7 -27.9 -33.9 6.3 2.3 1.5 14.2 -14.6 6.8 -38.5 -3.5 32.5 44.2







49,905 43,694 6,211 12.4 40,300 1,000 1,600 1,700 2,900 6,900 1,400 11,100 13,700 49,473 39,126 3,856 6,491 6,140 7,858 2,989 2,003 925 61 28 28







122,008 115,593 6,415 5.3 91,400 900 5,900 5,600 2,900 25,100 2,400 23,400 25,200 139,081 104,738 22,125 12,218 11,558 32,084 55,262 21,718 32,529 1,015 247 181







120,281 113,617 6,664 5.5 91,000 900 5,800 5,600 2,900 24,800 2,400 23,100 25,500 162,157 125,945 23,353 12,859 11,497 33,883 24,036 18,922 1,667 3,447 172 152







118,075 110,200 7,875 6.7 86,900 900 5,900 5,600 2,800 23,600 2,400 22,600 23,100 125,899 93,488 21,379 11,032 9,678 31,167 22,697 17,079 3,732 1,886 163 147







115,600 107,925 7,675 6.6 88,900 900 5,900 5,400 2,800 23,700 2,400 22,600 25,200 128,194 92,404 22,951 12,839 11,242 34,255 65,826 19,920 5,982 39,924 188 168







116,500 109,375 7,125 6.1 90,000 900 6,200 5,500 2,900 23,900 2,300 23,100 25,200 ... ... ... ... ... ... 42,760 24,452 12,480 5,828 224 214







0.8 1.1 -3.8 -4.6 2.6 0.0 6.9 -8.3 0.0 2.6 -11.5 1.3 7.7 7.7 5.3 17.3 9.5 10.2 15.7 -9.1 -25.1 62.2 -12.9 -37.6 -4.0







6.6 7.9 -9.6 -15.2 3.6 2.9 2.4 -4.2 -1.1 2.8 -5.2 3.8 8.5 8.1 7.7 10.4 7.0 6.2 8.3 6.0 -20.6 103.7 41.0 -18.3 -20.7







ARIZONA'S ECONOMY







ARIZONA







ECONOMIC







INDICATORS







NOV 95 PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES Total Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Nondurable Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Trade Wholesale Retail Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales Retail Food, EBR Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Contracting Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge Total Awards Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units 2-4 Unit Structures 5-plus Unit Structures Housing Sales and Prices, ARMLS Total Sales ($000s) Total Units Average Price ($) Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, PSIA Total Passengers Total Aircraft Movements 1,385.7 1,344.8 40.9 3.1 1,249.8 5.2 84.9 150.5 113.5 37.0 64.2 317.4 75.1 242.3 87.4 371.5 168.7 2,107,773 1,481,790 288,542 235,236 102,205 397,126 537,538 287,510 197,002 53,026 2,992 2,200 59 733 352,118 2,886 122,009 2,325,232 32,466







DEC 95 1,381.6 1,341.6 39.9 3.0 1,261.3 5.2 85.2 151.1 114.1 37.0 64.8 323.7 75.7 248.0 87.8 357.0 168.5 2,669,320 1,991,094 290,996 274,076 113,154 478,816 566,054 268,748 274,335 22,971 3,443 2,276 60 1,107 388,316 3,181 122,074 2,417,088 34,978







JAN 96 1,361.3 1,315.5 45.8 3.3 1,240.4 5.2 84.5 151.3 114.6 36.7 63.3 313.1 75.8 237.3 87.7 374.8 160.5 2,132,979 1,462,110 293,728 270,309 106,832 386,325 407,270 294,849 72,071 40,350 3,367 2,235 45 1,087 331,251 2,576 128,591 2,325,621 35,148







FEB 96 1,372.7 1,328.6 44.1 3.3 1,261.0 5.2 86.8 152.6 115.7 36.9 63.6 314.5 76.8 237.7 88.2 381.6 168.5 2,158,201 1,469,582 295,854 278,747 114,019 415,439 511,573 276,175 110,758 124,640 4,341 2,374 32 1,935 310,847 2,514 123,646 2,480,939 33,044







MAR 96 1,375.0 1,331.7 43.3 3.3 1,269.2 5.2 85.8 152.8 115.9 36.9 64.0 318.2 78.0 240.2 88.3 385.2 169.7 ... ... ... ... ... ... 599,631 434,192 103,893 61,546 3,954 3,071 16 867 465,604 3,795 122,689 2,920,143 36,070







% change versus year ago for: most most recent recent month 12-months 3.7 4.0 -5.3 -8.3 4.4 2.0 5.9 4.6 5.7 1.1 0.5 4.4 6.7 3.7 2.0 5.6 3.4 12.3 8.7 7.4 11.0 159.8 20.6 17.9 39.6 -38.2 108.6 5.6 24.3 73.3 28.7 24.2 35.7 -8.5 13.7 -20.4 7.0 8.1 -18.4 -24.0 5.4 4.9 7.7 1.8 2.7 -1.0 0.4 7.8 8.9 7.4 -1.6 6.4 6.4 10.0 9.8 11.2 9.4 11.9 10.1 9.5 0.7 15.6 54.7 17.6 14.8 38.5 26.2 19.0 12.6 5.4 10.2 -13.4







PHOENIX-MESA METROPOLITAN REGION (MARICOPA AND PINAL) - QUARTERLY DATA I 95 Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population Natural Increase Births Deaths Net Migration Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents Plus: Transfer Payments Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table



AR IZ ON A 'S ECON O MY







II 95 2,582.2 6.0 11.0 5.1 19.2 56,396 40,685 2,479 -31 9,479 8,742 21,840







III 95 2,604.5 6.0 11.1 5.1 16.3 57,460 41,423 2,520 -31 9,669 8,919 22,062







IV 95 2,625.3 6.1 11.2 5.1 14.7 58,449 42,154 2,560 -31 9,821 9,065 22,264







I 96 2,646.1 6.2 11.3 5.1 14.7 59,444 42,893 2,602 -31 9,975 9,209 22,465







% change versus year ago for: most most recent recent quarter 4-quarters 3.5 3.9 3.3 2.7 -29.3 7.6 7.4 6.7 0.1 7.7 7.8 3.9 3.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 -15.7 8.7 8.1 7.2 -1.5 10.6 9.2 4.7







2,557.1 5.9 10.9 5.0 20.8 55,270 39,936 2,439 -31 9,259 8,544 21,614







PAGE FIFTEEN







ARIZONA







ECONOMIC







INDICATORS







NOV 95 TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES Total Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Nondurable Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Trade Wholesale Retail Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Sales ($000s) ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales Retail Food, EBR Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Contracting Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge Total Awards Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units 2-4 Unit Structures 5-plus Unit Structures Housing Sales and Prices, TAR Total Sales ($000s) Total Units Average Price ($) Tucson International Airport, TAA Total Passengers Total Aircraft Movements TUCSON METROPOLITAN REGION (PIMA) - QUARTERLY DATA I 95 Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population Natural Increase Births Deaths Net Migration Personal Income by Source ($mil, SAAR) EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents Plus: Transfer Payments Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table



PA GE S IX TE EN







DEC 95 375.9 364.8 11.1 3.2 309.4 2.3 20.4 27.7 22.5 5.2 13.8 71.0 9.9 61.1 11.9 93.2 69.1 667,115 485,999 79,742 68,045 33,329 97,911 55,123 36,405 13,892 4,826 354 212 13 129 76,907 629 122,269 291,833 20,494







JAN 96 370.7 358.2 12.5 3.3 304.7 2.3 19.9 27.4 22.3 5.1 13.8 70.0 10.3 59.7 12.0 93.0 66.3 512,841 345,108 79,117 61,709 26,907 84,443 68,420 42,957 14,988 10,475 577 403 6 168 72,125 612 117,851 283,183 22,389







FEB 96 372.2 360.1 12.1 3.4 309.0 2.3 19.8 27.5 22.3 5.2 13.7 70.2 10.3 59.9 12.0 93.7 69.8 528,987 347,058 79,689 69,367 32,873 81,331 97,219 54,554 27,739 14,926 397 395 2 0 70,909 545 130,109 312,477 20,117







MAR 96 373.0 360.6 12.4 3.5 310.5 2.3 19.7 27.6 22.4 5.2 13.6 70.4 10.5 59.9 12.1 94.3 70.5 ... ... ... ... ... ... 112,393 72,359 31,947 8,087 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 349,205 22,421







% change versus year ago for: most most recent recent month 12-months 1.3 1.3 0.6 -2.8 1.7 9.5 1.5 0.7 0.9 0.0 0.7 2.3 6.1 1.7 1.7 1.0 2.3 8.4 5.7 5.6 6.5 71.9 6.8 37.5 43.5 88.4 -43.7 -51.5 23.4 0.0 -100.0 22.4 5.8 15.6 4.6 1.8 3.6 4.2 -11.5 -15.1 1.6 9.3 2.9 2.3 3.7 -3.2 2.8 1.0 1.2 1.0 -4.6 2.5 0.8 4.6 4.0 7.1 4.2 7.5 8.8 -7.8 -21.0 18.0 37.1 -27.9 -26.3 -50.0 -30.2 -3.7 -7.3 3.8 4.9 -0.5







377.6 366.2 11.4 3.3 306.9 2.2 20.0 27.5 22.2 5.3 13.6 70.1 9.9 60.2 11.7 93.1 68.7 516,617 350,545 79,069 57,846 29,157 92,237 115,141 64,946 45,198 4,997 373 371 2 0 72,498 604 120,030 289,081 20,775







II 95 757.7 1.3 2.9 1.6 3.7 14,157 8,846 550 140 2,854 2,866 18,684







III 95 762.1 1.3 2.9 1.7 3.1 14,332 8,932 557 142 2,897 2,919 18,807







IV 95 766.1 1.3 3.0 1.7 2.8 14,492 9,028 565 144 2,919 2,966 18,916







I 96 770.2 1.3 3.0 1.7 2.8 14,657 9,129 573 147 2,941 3,012 19,030







% change versus year ago for: most most recent recent quarter 4-quarters 2.3 6.6 4.2 2.5 -34.8 5.0 4.2 5.3 5.8 5.2 7.2 2.6 2.6 7.0 4.2 2.1 -26.7 6.2 4.8 5.9 6.8 9.0 7.9 3.5







752.7 1.2 2.9 1.6 4.2 13,965 8,764 544 139 2,796 2,811 18,553







ARIZONA'S ECONOMY







ARIZONA







ECONOMIC







INDICATORS







NOV 95 ARIZONA MONTHLY DATA Civilian Labor Force (000s) ADES Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate, Seas. Adj. (%) Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls (000s) ADES Total Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Nondurable Trans., Comm. & Publ. Util. Transportation Trade Wholesale Retail Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services Government Federal State & Local Schools Hours Worked Per Week, Manufacturing, ADES Average Hourly Earnings ($) ADES Copper Mining Construction Manufacturing Utilities Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Sales ($000s) ADOR Aggregate Retail Sales Retail Food, EBR Restaurants & Bars Gasoline, EBR Gallons (000s) ADOT Utilities Communications Amusements Rentals - Real Property Rentals - Personal Property Contracting Mining - Metal, Oil & Gas Hotel/Motel Value of Construction Contract Awards ($000s) F.W. Dodge Total Awards Residential Building Non-Residential Building Non-Building New Housing Units Authorized, Census C-40 Total Units Single Family Units 2-4 Unit Structures 5-plus Unit Structures Bankruptcy Filings, U.S. Bankruptcy Court Total Chapter 7 Chapter 11 Chapter 13 See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table.



ARIZONA'S ECONOMY







DEC 95 2,149.0 2,059.3 89.7 4.6 1,843.8 12.4 121.2 195.3 148.1 47.2 92.3 55.0 468.5 96.6 371.9 107.8 534.3 312.0 45.0 267.0 161.5 42.2 16.45 12.50 11.39 17.02 10.35 11.94 3,952,549 2,887,149 469,659 402,723 193,018 172,568 322,194 125,288 6,252 278,691 187,479 665,811 133,955 91,725 706,961 345,669 314,094 47,198 4,323 2,897 129 1,297 1,272 952 14 306







JAN 96 2,120.7 2,019.8 100.9 4.8 1,811.9 12.4 119.9 195.3 148.2 47.1 90.9 54.1 454.0 96.0 358.0 107.2 532.0 300.2 44.3 255.9 150.0 43.1 16.63 12.75 11.21 17.89 10.09 12.86 3,168,096 2,118,881 476,172 388,649 184,394 161,764 358,302 108,654 43,933 275,383 187,526 549,079 158,115 134,278 550,506 377,529 98,732 74,245 4,422 3,053 69 1,300 1,333 970 27 336







FEB 96 2,131.4 2,035.0 96.4 4.9 1,839.5 12.4 121.7 196.4 149.2 47.2 91.3 54.4 455.5 96.9 358.6 107.6 541.2 313.4 44.3 269.1 163.3 42.8 16.54 12.30 11.31 17.36 10.36 14.03 3,213,849 2,130,782 479,618 408,823 194,626 170,411 323,992 127,701 46,159 251,946 161,102 580,997 120,215 167,252 750,866 388,975 156,438 205,453 5,302 3,167 57 2,078 1,827 1,207 52 568







MAR 96 2,132.1 2,037.3 94.8 4.9 1,852.6 12.5 120.6 196.5 149.2 47.3 92.0 54.8 460.5 97.7 362.8 107.8 547.7 315.0 44.3 270.7 165.2 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 809,026 568,566 154,772 85,688 5,153 4,101 50 1,002 1,529 1,155 25 349







% change versus year ago for: most most recent recent month 12-months 2.9 3.3 -5.1 -7.5 3.7 2.5 4.0 3.4 4.0 1.3 2.0 2.6 3.6 3.7 3.6 0.8 5.1 3.3 3.5 3.2 3.1 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.4 5.1 -2.3 20.1 0.9 -5.9 7.9 10.1 89.2 90.4 1.8 9.9 -11.0 -6.8 -22.8 16.9 -18.9 12.8 14.5 34.2 -23.8 7.8 6.5 20.8 -58 -24.3 15.3 18.8 -3.8 6.4 6.1 7.4 -13.6 -18.8 4.5 1.8 6.0 1.5 2.3 -0.7 1.4 2.0 6.0 7.7 5.6 -2.0 6.0 4.7 2.9 5.0 5.8 -1.3 2.3 2.0 1.4 -4.5 6.4 5.9 7.1 6.6 7.7 8.1 10.0 9.5 0.6 13.8 -17.7 19.3 11.1 8.7 14.7 10.3 4.7 -4.3 13.1 37.3 9.8 7.4 -11.5 22.1 17.8 17.9 -31.0 24.5







2,160.8 2,067.6 93.3 4.6 1,829.5 12.4 120.4 194.4 147.2 47.2 91.3 54.6 461.3 95.5 365.8 107.3 531.5 310.9 43.9 267.0 160.6 42.1 16.71 12.38 11.57 16.70 10.27 12.02 3,148,938 2,165,384 465,698 346,545 171,311 162,058 306,746 122,147 32,349 270,721 174,830 569,104 168,602 97,801 750,198 401,801 282,448 65,949 4,004 3,171 90 743 1,384 1,050 32 302







PAGE SE VE N TEE N







ARIZONA







ECONOMIC







INDICATORS







I 95 ARIZONA - QUARTERLY DATA Demographics & Vital Statistics (000s, seas adj) ADHS & EBR Population Natural Increase Births Deaths Net Migration Personal Income Derivation ($mil, SAAR) EBR Total Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work Less: Contributions for Social Insurance Plus: Adjustment for Residence Plus: Dividends, Interest & Rents Plus: Transfer Payments Components of Earnings ($mil, SAAR) BEA Wages and Salaries Other Labor Income Proprietor's Income Farm Nonfarm Per Capita Personal Income ($, SAAR) EBR Average Wage Per Employee, Annual Rate ($) E Measures of Financial Institutions Banks and S&Ls Combined ($mil) ASBD Assets Loans Liabilities Deposits Equity Capital Capital:Asset Ratio (%) MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES I 95 Consumer Price Index (1982-84=100) ASU & BLS Metropolitan Phoenix Western Region (U.S.) U.S. - All Urban Consumers U.S. - Urban Wage Earners Price Indexes (1992=100) BEA Gross Domestic Product Personal Consumption Expenditures MEASURES OF INFLATION AND PRICES - MONTHLY DATA NOV 95 Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) BLS U.S. - All Urban U.S. - Wage Earners Sources and abbreviations: ADES: Arizona Department of Economic Security ADHS: Arizona Department of Health Services ADOR: Arizona Department of Revenue ADOT: Arizona Department of Transportation ARMLS: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service ASBD: Arizona State Banking Department ASPB: Arizona State Parks Board ASU: Arizona State University, College of Business, Research Centers



PAGE EIGHTEEN







II 95







III 95







IV 95







I 96







% change versus year ago for: most most recent recent quarter 4-quarters







4,153.0 9.5 17.5 8.0 23.9 83,638 57,800 3,665 275 14,376 14,853 47,055 5,246 5,436 342 5,094 20,139 26,059







4,185.9 8.4 17.3 8.9 23.8 84,298 57,846 3,650 278 14,690 15,135 47,337 5,302 5,397 281 5,117 20,139 26,130







4,218.2 9.5 18.4 8.9 22.8 86,133 59,142 3,697 285 15,005 15,397 ... ... ... ... ... 20,420 ...







4,249.9 9.4 18.4 9.0 21.7 87,732 60,198 3,731 292 15,373 15,599 ... ... ... ... ... 20,643 ...







4,280.6 9.7 18.6 8.9 20.5 89,364 61,399 3,821 297 15,510 15,980 ... ... ... ... ... 20,877 ...







3.1 2.7 6.4 10.9 -14.5 6.8 6.2 4.3 8.1 7.9 7.6 9.0 10.5 3.7 -29.0 6.4 3.7 3.2







3.2 -0.3 2.6 5.8 -1.7 8.4 7.4 5.7 6.7 11.5 8.6 10.0 11.3 4.1 -33.8 8.0 5.1 3.1







35,317 21,928 32,503 30,942 2,814 9.0







36,478 22,372 33,600 31,482 2,878 8.8







36,463 22,340 33,490 30,752 2,974 9.1







38,527 23,303 35,558 32,546 2,969 8.6







... ... ... ... ... ...







9.8 8.5 9.6 5.8 13.1 NA







1.6 5.3 1.9 2.4 -1.9 NA







II 95 157.9 153.6 152.2 149.6 107.3 107.5







III 95 160.0 154.1 152.9 150.2 108.0 108.0







IV 95 161.3 154.3 153.6 150.9 108.4 108.9







I 96 162.9 156.4 155.0 152.3 109.0 109.5







% change versus year ago for: most most recent recent quarter 4-quarters 4.5 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.2 2.5 4.8 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.5







155.9 152.8 150.9 148.3 106.7 106.8







DEC 95 153.5 150.9







JAN 96 154.4 151.7







FEB 96 154.9 152.2







MAR 96 155.7 152.9







% change versus year ago for: most most recent recent month 12-months 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8







153.6 150.9







BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor Census C-40, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce EBR: Economic & Business Research Program, The University of Arizona F.W. Dodge, Division of McGraw Hill Information Systems Co. (proprietary data provided by special permission) NPS: National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior







NSCCC: Nogales-Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce PSIA: Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport SAAR: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates TAA: Tucson Airport Authority TAR: Tucson Association of Realtors USINS: U.S. Immigration & Naturalization Service, U.S. Department of Justice U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Arizona USCS: U.S. Customs Service, U.S. Department of the Treasury



ARIZONA'S ECONOMY







ARIZONA







ECONOMIC







INDICATORS







TRAVEL AND TOURISM - MONTHLY DATA OCT 95 Visits to Parks & Other Recreational Areas, ADOT, NPS & ASPB Northern Arizona Historical Scenic Water Based Recreation Southern Arizona Historical Scenic Water Based Recreation International Border Crossings, USINS & USCS U.S. Citizens Aliens Vehicles See notes at bottom of Arizona - Quarterly table. 1,713,753 182,260 575,109 956,384 214,560 41,205 140,134 33,221 NOV 95 1,305,463 121,499 259,539 924,425 205,969 46,299 138,683 20,987 DEC 95 718,799 51,627 204,572 462,600 167,332 34,848 120,265 12,219 JAN 96 1,087,177 76,814 208,660 801,703 258,038 56,911 179,251 21,876 FEB 96 1,024,680 130,862 246,649 647,169 400,015 92,873 272,078 35,064







% change versus year ago for: most most recent recent month 12-months -4.7 16.7 -1.1 -9.3 0.3 8.2 -3.6 13.3 -1.0 2.5 4.2 -4.0 2.2 -2.7 3.1 5.0







676,425 1,921,193 722,014







718,081 2,062,580 744,889







701,767 1,972,537 ...







664,778 1,867,159 ...







... ... ...







0.5 0.2 -11.7







-22.4 -5.6 -12.3







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ARIZONA'S ECONOMY IS PUBLISHED QUARTERLY BY THE KARL ELLER GRADUATE SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT, COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION, THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA, TUCSON, ARIZONA 85721. (602) 621-2155. COPYRIGHT 1996 BY THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA. REQUESTS FOR COPIES, PERMISSION TO REPRINT AND CHANGE OF ADDRESS NOTICES SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO THE STAFF. ACTING DEAN ..........................................WILLIAM L. FELIX JR ASSOCIATE DEAN OF COMMUNITY AFFAIRS...................................LISA FAHEY PUBLICATIONS DIRECTOR...............................DIANA HUNTER







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