Crime trends in Arizona: 1990 through 1999 and beyond |
Previous | 1 of 1 | Next |
|
This page
All
Subset |
CRIME TRENDS IN ARIZONA: 1990 THROUGH 1999 AND BEYOND
APRIL 2001
A JOINT PUBLICATION OF THE ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY RESEARCH AND PLANNING
AND
ARIZONA CRIMINAL JUSTICE COMMISSION STATISTICAL ANALYSIS CENTER
ARIZONA CRIMINAL JUSTICE COMMISSION
Chairperson TERRY L. STEWART, Director Arizona Department of Corrections JOSEPH ARPAIO Maricopa County Sheriff DAVID K. BYERS, Director Administrative Office of the Courts TONY ESTRADA Santa Cruz County Sheriff BARBARA LAWALL Pima County Attorney JANET NAPOLITANO Arizona Attorney General CHRISTOPHER SKELLY Judge, Retired JIM BOLES, Mayor City of Winslow DAVID DOBROTKA, Chief Glendale Police Department BILL FITZGERALD Chief Adult Probation Officer Yavapai County Adult Probation RICHARD MIRANDA, Chief Tucson Police Department ROBERT CARTER OLSON Pinal County Attorney
Co-Chairperson RALPH OGDEN Yuma County Sheriff EDITH RICHARDSON, Chairperson Board of Executive Clemency CLARENCE DUPNIK Pima County Sheriff DENNIS GARRETT, Director Arizona Department of Public Safety J.T. McCANN, Chief Flagstaff Police Department RICHARD M. ROMLEY Maricopa County Attorney LEWIS TENNEY Navajo County Board Of Supervisors Executive Director MICHAEL D. BRANHAM
Statistical Analysis Center Director MICHELLE C. WATKINS
Research and Statistical Analyst JACKIE R. MINERO
CRIME TRENDS IN ARIZONA: 1990 THROUGH 1999 AND BEYOND
APRIL 2001
A JOINT PUBLICATION OF THE ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY RESEARCH AND PLANNING
AND
ARIZONA CRIMINAL JUSTICE COMMISSION STATISTICAL ANALYSIS CENTER
ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY
COLONEL DENNIS A. GARRETT, DIRECTOR ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF P UBLIC SAFETY MR. RODNEY D. COVEY, ASSISTANT DIRECTOR AGENCY SUPPORT DIVISION COMMANDER DON L. MILLER, BUREAU COMMANDER MANAGEMENT S ERVICES B UREAU LIEUTENANT JOHN W. WILSON, COMMANDER ANALYSIS AND INSPECTIONS MR. J. W. "PETE" PETERSON, MANAGER R ESEARCH AND PLANNING MS. LAVADA CHARBONNEAU, ANALYST R ESEARCH AND PLANNING
Table of Contents
Preface............................................................................................................................................ 1 Section One: Highlights of Arizona Population and Crime Trends for 1999.................................. 3 Section Two: How Arizona Compares Nationally........................................................................... 5 POPULATION GROWTH .................................................................................................................. 5 ARIZONA'S CRIME INDEX............................................................................................................... 7 VIOLENT CRIME RATES ................................................................................................................. 9 Murder Rates ........................................................................................................................ 11 Rape Rates ........................................................................................................................... 13 Robbery Rates ...................................................................................................................... 15 Aggravated Assault Rates .................................................................................................... 17 PROPERTY CRIME RATES............................................................................................................ 19 Burglary Rates ...................................................................................................................... 21 Larceny-Theft Rates ............................................................................................................. 23 Motor Vehicle Theft Rates .................................................................................................... 25 Section Three: A Closer Look at Arizona Crime .......................................................................... 27 CRIME INDEX OFFENSES AND RATES BY COUNTY 1990-1999 ..................................................... 29 Violent Crime......................................................................................................................... 33 Murder ............................................................................................................................... 37 Rape .................................................................................................................................. 40 Robbery............................................................................................................................. 43 Aggravated Assault........................................................................................................... 46 Property Crime...................................................................................................................... 49 Burglary ............................................................................................................................. 53 Larceny-Theft .................................................................................................................... 56 Motor Vehicle Theft ........................................................................................................... 59 Arson ................................................................................................................................. 62 Adult and Juvenile Arrests .................................................................................................... 65 Section Four: Conclusion.............................................................................................................. 69
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond
Preface
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990 Through 1999 and Beyond, presents a series of data sets for major crimes in Arizona. The data were compiled from information reported to police and collected through the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program by the Arizona Department of Public Safety (DPS) for submission to the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). This report is organized into four sections. Section One provides a brief summary of Arizona population and crime trends for 1999, the latest year for which UCR data are available. Section Two presents a comparative 10-year look at reported crime in Arizona based upon FBI-adjusted data 1 and portrays Arizona's comparative rankings among the states and District of Columbia. Section Three takes a closer look at Arizona crime by county based upon unadjusted 2 UCR figures, and gives five-year projections for the State, Maricopa and Pima Counties, and aggregated rural counties. Section Four recaps the data presented. A significant indicator and common expression of crime is the Crime Index which is composed of selected offenses used to gauge fluctuations in the overall volume and rate of crime reported to law enforcement. The offenses included are the violent crimes of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery and aggravated assault, and the property crimes of burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson. While the Crime Index total is a common measure used in many comparisons, it fails to consider other factors which are known to affect the volume and type of crime occurring such as population density and urbanization. Therefore, a crime rate reflecting the number of crimes per unit of population (per every 100,000 persons) is a better expression. For that reason, Rate is frequently used to make comparisons among population groups in this report. Population size is the only correlate of crime used in this report. Crime in the United States publications list many other factors known to impact crime including, in part, composition of the population, particularly youth concentration; stability of the population; economic conditions; cultural factors; family cohesiveness; and law enforcement strength and effectiveness. While those and other factors are critical in understanding the causes and origins of crime, no attempt is made to relate them to the data presented. By way of illustration, several categories of Arizona crime experienced sharp rate increases in the mid-1990s that were not matched on the national level. A valid assessment of why this occurred is possible only with careful study and analysis of the various unique conditions affecting each local law enforcement jurisdiction and that is beyond the scope of this report. In addition, generalizations based solely on the data need to consider inherent UCR Program limitations. These limitations include the fact that until passage of Arizona state legislation in 1992 (ARS 41-1750), participation by law enforcement agencies in UCR data collection was voluntary. Moreover, the UCR Program accounts for only reported crimes. In that regard, the National Crime Victimization Survey one of the largest ongoing household surveys administered by the federal government estimates that only 36.3 percent of all crimes in 1999 were reported to police3. Also, where several crimes occur in a single event, only the most serious is reported for UCR purposes. For example, report of a murder can cause a
1 2
The FBI adjusts statistics upward (overestimates) in an effort to account for missing reports. Unlike in Section Two, the data in Section Three includes only the information reported to the AZ DPS, and data are not adjusted to account for missing reports. 3 United States Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics (2000). Criminal Victimization 1999: Changes 1998-99 with Trends 1993-99.
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 1
concurrent robbery to go uncounted. In Arizona, crimes reported to Native American law enforcement agencies are also not reflected in UCR statistics. Because of these and other limitations, the number of UCR offenses reported will always be less than what is actually occurring; therefore, this portrayal of crime trend data for Arizona is by no means totally comprehensive or complete. Questions regarding this report may be directed to: Arizona Criminal Justice Commission Statistical Analysis Center 3737 North 7t h Street, Suite 260 Phoenix, Arizona 85014 Phone: (602) 230-0252 Toll free number: 1-877-668-2252 Fax: (602) 728-0752 www.acjc.state.az.us Arizona Department of Public Safety Research and Planning, Mail Drop 1230 P.O. Box 6638 Phoenix, Arizona 85005-6638 Phone: (602) 223-2082 Fax: (602) 223-2932 E-mail: planning@dps.state.az.us
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 2
Section One: Highlights of Arizona Population and Crime Trends for 1999
The following are highlights of Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990 Through 1999 and Beyond. Data comparing Arizona trends with the rest of the nation are from Crime in the United States (1999) while county comparisons and arrest data are from Crime in Arizona (1999). Population: In the past decade, Arizona grew three times as fast as the rest of the nation, becoming home to more than 4.7 million people. The State's 1999 population of 4,778,000 people was 1.1 million more than what it was in 1990. Crime Index: Arizona's 1999 overall Crime Index rate fell 10.3 percent from the 1998 rate and 25.3 percent from the 1990 rate. In comparison, the national rate declined 7.6 percent last year and 26.7 percent over the last 10 years. In 1999 rankings of all the states and the District of Columbia, Arizona had the fourth highest reported Crime Index rate, behind the District of Columbia, Florida and New Mexico. Violent Crime: Arizona experienced a 4.6 percent decline in violent crime rates between 1998 and 1999, while nationally the violent crime rate declined by 7.5 percent. All areas of violent crime in Arizona fell, led by a 7.7 percent decline in the robbery rate and a 6.9 percent drop in the rape rate. Compared to other states and the District of Columbia, Arizona ranked sixteenth in terms of violent crime rates. Murder: Arizona experienced almost no decrease in the murder rate between 1998 and 1999 while the nation's murder rate decreased by 9.3 percent. In 1999, Arizona had the seventh highest murder rate in the nation, behind the District of Columbia, Louisiana, New Mexico, Nevada, Maryland and Alaska. Aggravated Assault: Arizona's aggravated assault rate ranked sixteenth in the nation in 1999. The State experienced a 3.2 percent decline in aggravated assault between 1998 and 1999, a slower drop than the national decline of 7 percent. Property Crime: The State's property crime rate dropped 10.9 percent between 1998 and 1999, while the national rate fell 7.6 percent during this time. Although the property crime rate has declined 26.1 percent since 1990, Arizona ranked third among all the states and the District of Columbia with a rate 42.8 percent above the national rate. Only the District of Columbia and Florida had higher property crime rates in 1999. Motor Vehicle Theft: In 1999, Arizona's highest area of property crime was a motor vehicle theft rate 90.3 percent greater than the national rate. In spite of a 7.3 percent rate decline over the last 10 years and a 7.5 percent drop from 1998 to 1999, Arizona had the second highest rate of motor vehicle theft in the nation, behind the District of Columbia. Burglary and Larceny-Theft: Other components of Arizona's property crime rate also saw declines in 1999. Between 1998 and 1999, the burglary rate dropped 14.5 percent and larceny-theft rate fell 10.5 percent. Comparatively, the national reported reductions in burglary and larceny-theft rates between 1998 and 1999 were 10.8 percent and 6.5 percent. Arizona ranked sixth and fourth, respectively, when compared in those areas against the other states and the District of Columbia.
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 3
Arrests by Age: The total number of arrests by Arizona law enforcement agencies for all criminal infractions, excluding traffic violations, decreased 5.4 percent from 298,662 arrests in 1998 to 282,667 arrests in 1999. This decline was comparable to the 5 percent decline reported nationally. In Arizona, juveniles accounted for 20.8 percent of all arrests and 21.4 percent of violent crime arrests. Projections: Over the next five years, Crime Index offenses reported to police statewide are projected to increase by 3.5 percent. Rural counties may face a 4.6 percent boost in reported property crimes and a 12.7 percent drop in murders. In contrast, metropolitan counties may outpace rural counties with projected increases in murder offenses and motor vehicle thefts but could witness a greater drop in burglary crimes.
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 4
Section Two: How Arizona Compares Nationally
Section Two, How Arizona Compares Nationally, presents a comparative 10-year look at population growth and reported crime in Arizona based upon UCR data for Index crimes as published in annual Crime in the United States reports. The FBI statistically adjusts data upward, when necessary, to account for missing UCR reports. This adjusted estimate for 100 percent reporting allows comparisons of rates (per 100,000 of population) as if all jurisdictions had fully reported. Section Two also reflects Arizona's comparative rankings among the states and District of Columbia. Unless otherwise stated, only crime rates at the national and state levels are discussed rather than the actual number of reported offenses.
Population Growth
At 30.4 percent total growth between 1990 and 1999, Arizona's population grew more than three times faster than the rest of the nation (9.6 percent). Arizona's increase of 1,112,772 people over the decade is equivalent to the population of the state of Hawaii moving to Arizona. Figure 2-1 and Table 2-1 show the population growth in Arizona compared to national growth. Figure 2-1
POPULATION GROWTH
1990 - 1999
4800 4600 275
270
265
4200 260 4000 3800 3600 3400 255
250
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
245
1999
Arizona
National
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 5
National Population (Millions)
Arizona Population (Thousands)
4400
Table 2-1: Arizona and National Population Growth, 1990-1999
1990
Arizona Population National Population 3,665,228 248,709,873
1991
3,750,000 252,177,000
1992
3,832,000 255,082,000
1993
3,936,000 257,908,000
1994
4,075,000 260,341,000
1995
4,218,000 262,755,000
1996
Arizona Population National Population 4,428,000 265,284,000
1997
4,555,000 267,637,000
1998
4,669,000 270,296,000
1999
4,778,000 272,691,000
Percent Change (1990-1999)
30.4% 9.6%
Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1990-1999
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 6
Arizona's Crime Index
By definition, four major violent crimes (murder, rape, robbery and aggravated assault) and four major property crimes (burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft and arson4) comprise the Crime Index. In 1999, violent crimes accounted for 9.3 percent of Arizona's Crime Index offenses, and property crimes made up 90.7 percent. Nationally, violent crimes totaled 12 percent of Crime Index offenses and property crimes comprised 88 percent. When making comparisons among population groups, a Crime Index rate per 100,000 population presents a better picture of fluctuations in occurring crime. Table 2-2 shows that when compared against the 1999 Crime Index rates of other states and the District of Columbia, Arizona ranked fourth, a 10.3 percent decline from the 1998 rate. Arizona's 1999 overall Crime Index rate was the lowest recorded since 1969, but remained 38.2 percent higher than the national Crime Index rate. Table 2-2: Crime Index Rate per 100,000 Population, 1999 Top 10 Rankings of States and District of Columbia Compared with 1998 (in parentheses) Rank State (1998 Rank) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. District of Columbia (1) Florida (2) New Mexico (3) Arizona (4) Louisiana (5) South Carolina (7) Washington (6) North Carolina (14) Georgia (10) Texas (16) United States 1999 Rate 8,067.1 6,205.5 5,962.1 5,896.5 5,746.8 5,324.4 5,255.5 5,175.4 5,148.5 5,031.8 4,266.8 1998 Rate (8,835.6) (6,886.0) (6,719.1) (6,575.0) (6,098.3) (5,777.0) (5,867.4) (5,322.2) (5,463.0) (5,111.6) (4,619.3) Percent Change (1998-1999) -8.7% -9.9% -11.3% -10.3% -5.8% -7.8% -10.4% -2.8% -5.8% -1.6% -7.6%
Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1998-1999
4
Only 8,061 agencies, representing 68 percent of the United States population, submitted complete arson reports in 1999. Although the Crime in the United States report provides a separate analysis of arson data, those offenses are excluded from Index and property crime totals because sufficient data are not available to estimate national and state-level totals for arson offenses. Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 7
Figure 2-2
CRIME INDEX RATES
1990 - 1999
8500 8000
Rate Per 100,000 Population
7500 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994 1995 Year
Arizona
1996
1997
1998
1999
National
Figure 2-2 shows that the national Crime Index rate steadily declined over the last 10 years while Arizona's Crime Index rate rose in the mid-1990s before falling in the last half of the decade. Table 2-3 shows that by the end of the decade, the Arizona Crime Index rate fell 25.3 percent which is very close to the national Crime Index rate drop of 26.7 percent during this same period. Table 2-3: Arizona and National Crime Rates, 1990-1999 Arizona Crime Index Rate National Crime Index Rate 1990 7,888.7 5,820.3 1996 Arizona Crime Index Rate National Crime Index Rate 7,067.0 5,086.6 1991 7,405.6 5,897.8 1997 7,195.0 4,930.0 1992 7,028.6 5,660.2 1998 6,575.0 4,619.3 1993 7,431.7 5,484.4 1999 5,896.5 4,266.8 1994 7,924.6 5,373.5 1995 8,213.6 5,275.9
Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1990-1999
Percent Change (1990-1999) -25.3% -26.7%
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 8
Violent Crime Rates
Violent crime is composed of four offenses: murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery and aggravated assault. Table 2-4, which ranks the states with the 10 highest violent crime rates in 1999, shows that Arizona ranked sixteenth when compared to other states and the District of Columbia. In 1999, aggravated assault accounted for 65.6 percent of Arizona's reported violent crimes, robberies comprised 27.7 percent, and rapes contributed 5.3 percent. Murders represented the least frequent violent crime, accounting for 1.5 percent. While Arizona experienced a 4.6 percent decrease in the violent crime rate between 1998 and 1999, its 1999 violent crime rate was 5.1 percent higher than the national rate. Table 2-4: Violent Crime Rate per 100,000 Population, 1999 Top 10 Rankings of States and District of Columbia Compared with 1998 (in parentheses) With Arizona Rank Shown Rank 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 16. State (1998 Rank) District of Columbia (1) Florida (3) South Carolina (4) New Mexico (2) Maryland (6) Delaware (8) Louisiana (7) Illinois (5) Tennessee (9) Alaska (11) Arizona (17) United States 1999 Rate 1,627.7 854.0 847.1 834.5 743.4 734.0 732.7 732.5 694.9 631.5 551.2 524.7 1998 Rate (1,718.5) (938.7) (903.2) (961.4) (796.6) (762.4) (779.5) (807.7) (715.0) (653.9) (577.9) (567.5) Percent Change (1998-1999) -5.3% -9.0% -6.2% -13.2% -6.7% -3.7% -6.0% -9.3% -2.8% -3.4% -4.6% -7.5%
Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1998-1999
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 9
Figure 2-3
VIOLENT CRIME RATES
1990 - 1999
800
Rate Per 100,000 Population
750
700
650
600
550
500
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994 1995 Year
Arizona
1996
1997
1998
1999
National
Figure 2-3 shows that while Arizona began the decade with a violent crime rate lower than the national rate, by the end of the decade its rate was slightly higher. Over the last 10 years, the drop in the State's violent crime rate was about half that of the national violent crime rate decline. See Table 2-5 Table 2-5: Arizona and National Violent Crime Rates, 1990-1999 Arizona Violent Crime Rate National Violent Crime Rate 1990 652.4 731.8 1996 Arizona Violent Crime Rate National Violent Crime Rate 631.5 636.5 1991 670.7 758.1 1997 623.7 611.3 1992 670.8 757.5 1998 577.9 567.5 1993 715.0 746.8 1999 551.2 524.7 1994 703.1 713.6 1995 713.5 684.6
Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1990-1999
Percent Change (1990-1999) -15.5% -28.3%
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 10
Murder Rates
Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, as defined in the UCR Program, is the willful killing of one human being by another. In comparison to other states and the District of Columbia (as shown in Table 2-6), Arizona ranked seventh with a 1999 rate of eight murders per 100,000 population. The murder rate in Arizona remained fairly constant between 1998 and 1999, while the national rate fell 9.3 percent during this time. In 1999, Arizona's murder rate was 40.4 percent higher than the national rate. Table 2-6: Murder Rate per 100,000 Population, 1999 Top 10 Rankings of States and District of Columbia Compared with 1998 (in parentheses) Rank 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Tie 9. Tie State (1998 Rank) District of Columbia (1) Louisiana (2) New Mexico (4) Nevada (6) Maryland (5) Alaska (19) Arizona (tie 9,10, 11, 12) Alabama (9, 10, 11, 12) Illinois (8) Mississippi (3) United States 1999 Rate 46.4 10.7 9.8 9.1 9.0 8.6 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.7 5.7 1998 Rate (49.7) (12.8) (10.9) (9.7) (10.0) (6.7) (8.1) (8.1) (8.4) (11.4) (6.3) Percent Change (1998-1999) -6.6% -16.5% -10.7% -6.3% -10.0% 28.2% -.2% -2.9% -7.7% -32.8% -9.3%
Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1998-1999
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 11
Figure 2-4
MURDER RATES
1990 - 1999
11
Rate Per 100,000 Population
10
9
8
7
6
5
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994 1995 Year
Arizona
1996
1997
1998
1999
National
As seen in figure 2-4, Arizona's murder rate increased significantly in the mid-1990s. However, over the last decade, the increase was only 3.9 percent as shown in Table 2-7. In comparison, the national murder rate fell 39.4 percent between 1990 and 1999. Table 2-7: Arizona and National Murder Rates, 1990-1999 Arizona Murder Rate National Murder Rate 1990 7.7 9.4 1996 Arizona Murder Rate National Murder Rate 8.5 7.4 1991 7.8 9.8 1997 8.2 6.8 1992 8.1 9.3 1998 8.1 6.3 1993 8.6 9.5 1999 8.0 5.7 1994 10.5 9.0 1995 10.4 8.2
Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1990-1999
Percent Change (1990-1999) 3.9% -39.4%
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 12
Rape Rates
Under UCR guidelines, forcible rape 5 is defined as the carnal knowledge of a female forcibly and against her will, including assaults or attempts to commit rape by force or threat of force. Arizona has a rape rate lower than the national rate, and in 1999 ranked twenty-ninth when compared to other states and the District of Columbia. See Table 2-8. Between 1998 and 1999, Arizona's rape rate dropped by 6.9 percent, from about 31 rapes per 100,000 population to about 29. Table 2-8: Rape Rate per 100,000 Population, 1999 Top 10 Rankings of States and District of Columbia Compared with 1998 (in parentheses) with Arizona Rank Shown Rank 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 29. State (1998 Rank) Alaska (1) Delaware (2) New Mexico (3) Nevada (4) Michigan (5) District of Columbia (20) Washington (8) Florida (7) South Dakota (23) Tennessee (10) Arizona (31) United States 1999 Rate 83.5 70.2 54.3 52.1 49.2 47.8 47.1 46.3 45.8 44.0 28.9 32.7 1998 Rate (68.6) (67.1) (55.1) (52.1) (50.4) (36.3) (48.2) (49.6) (35.0) (45.8) (31.1) (34.5) Percent Change (1998-1999) 21.8% 4.6% -1.5% 0.0% -2.4% 31.5% -2.2% -6.8% 31.1% -3.8% -6.9% -5.2%
Source: Crime in the United States reports 1998-1999
5
Under Arizona statutes, crimes of rape are classified as sexual assaults and can include male as well as female victims. However, to ensure nationwide uniformity in crime reporting, UCR guidelines require the use of standardized offense definitions by which law enforcement agencies are to submit data without regard to local statutes. In all instances, the data reported in this document conform to UCR definitions.
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 13
Figure 2-5
RAPE RATES
1990 - 1999
45
Rate Per 100,000 Population
42
39
36
33
30
27
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994 1995 Year
Arizona
1996
1997
1998
1999
National
Figure 2-5 shows an Arizona 10-year rape rate trend that declined and in 1999 was 11.6 percent lower than the national rate. When compared to the 1990 rate, the 1999 Arizona rape rate was 29.3 percent lower while the national rate fell 20.6 percent during that period. See Table 2-9. Table 2-9: Arizona and National Rape Rates, 1990-1999 Arizona Rape Rate National Rape Rate 1990 40.9 41.2 1996 Arizona Rape Rate National Rape Rate 31.2 36.3 1991 42.4 42.3 1997 32.8 35.9 1992 43.0 42.8 1998 31.1 34.5 1993 37.8 41.1 1999 28.9 32.7 1994 36.0 39.3 1995 33.6 37.1
Source: Crime in the United States reports 1990-1999
Percent Change (1990-1999) -29.3% -20.6%
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 14
Robbery Rates
Robbery is defined as the taking or attempting to take anything of value from the care, custody, or control of a person by force or threat of force or violence and/or putting the victim in fear. In terms of 1999 robbery rates, Arizona was ranked fifteenth among other states and District of Columbia with a rate of 153 robberies per 100,000 population. This rate is very close to the national rate of 150 robberies per 100,000 population. From 1998 to 1999, Arizona's robbery rate fell 7.7 percent. Table 2-10: Robbery Rate per 100,000 Population, 1999 Top 10 Rankings of States and District of Columbia Compared with 1998 (in parentheses) with Arizona Rank Shown Rank State (1998 Rank) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 15. District of Columbia (1) Maryland (2) New York (3) Nevada (4) Illinois (5) Florida (6) Delaware (9) California (7) New Jersey (11) Louisiana (8) Arizona (13) United States 1999 Rate 644.3 263.7 240.8 232.7 219.4 211.6 197.9 181.1 174.9 173.6 152.5 150.2 1998 Rate (689.5) (298.7) (270.3) (254.9) (248.5) (242.7) (194.2) (210.6) (186.2) (198.0) (165.2) (165.4) Percent Change (1998-1999) -6.6% -11.7% -10.9% -8.7% -11.7% -12.8% 1.9% -14.0% -6.1% -12.3% -7.7% -9.2%
Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1998-1999
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 15
Figure 2-6
ROBBERY RATES
1990 - 1999
275 255 235 215 195 175 155 135
Rate Per 100,000 Population
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994 1995 Year
Arizona
1996
1997
1998
1999
National
At the beginning of the decade, Arizona's robbery rate was significantly lower than the national robbery rate, as shown in Figure 2-6. However, in the past 10 years, Arizona's robbery rate stayed fairly constant while the national robbery rate declined sharply. As shown in Table 2-11, the Arizona rate dropped 5.2 percent in the last 10 years while the national rate fell 41.6 percent. Table 2-11: Arizona and National Robbery Rates, 1990-1999 Arizona Robbery Rate National Robbery Rate 1990 160.9 257.0 1996 Arizona Robbery Rate National Robbery Rate 167.8 201.9 1991 165.7 272.7 1997 165.7 186.3 1992 153.1 263.6 1998 165.2 165.4 1993 162.9 255.9 1999 152.5 150.2 1994 162.0 237.7 1995 173.8 220.9
Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1990-1999
Percent Change (1990-1999) -5.2% -41.6%
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 16
Aggravated Assault Rates
Aggravated assault is an unlawful attack or attempted attack by one person upon another for the purpose of inflicting severe or aggravated bodily injury. In 1999, Arizona ranked sixteenth when compared to other states and the District of Columbia with an aggravated assault rate just above the national rate. See Table 2-12. Between 1998 and 1999 Arizona's aggravated assault rate declined 3.2 percent, which was slightly less than the national decline of 7 percent. Of all violent crime offenses reported in Arizona in 1999, aggravated assault comprised the largest proportion accounting for 65.6 percent. Table 2-12: Assault Rate per 100,000 Population, 1999 Top 10 Rankings of States and District of Columbia Compared with 1998 (in parentheses) with Arizona Rank Shown Rank State (1998 Rank) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 16. District of Columbia (1) South Carolina (3) New Mexico (2) Florida (4) Louisiana (5) Tennessee (10) Illinois (6) Delaware (7) Alaska (9) Maryland (12) Arizona (16) United States 1999 Rate 889.2 651.4 622.2 590.5 515.2 487.0 471.2 462.7 448.0 440.7 361.6 336.1 1998 Rate (943.0) (694.6) (732.0) (639.9) (531.9) (482.8) (516.9) (498.3) (492.0) (454.5) (373.6) (361.3) Percent Change (1998-1999) -5.7% -6.2% -15.0% -7.7% -3.1% 0.9% -8.8% -7.1% -9.0% -3.0% -3.2% -7.0%
Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1998-1999
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 17
Figure 2-7
ASSAULT RATES
1990 - 1999
525
Rate Per 100,000 Population
475
425
375
325
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994 1995 Year
Arizona
1996
1997
1998
1999
National
Figure 2-7 compares the Arizona and national assault rates for the years 1990 through 1999. As was common for several other crimes, Arizona's assault rate experienced a peak in the mid-1990s before decreasing to near-national levels by end of the decade. A look at the Arizona aggravated assault rate over 10 years (Table 2-13) shows a decrease of 18.3 percent during this time. Table 2-13: Arizona and National Assault Rates, 1990-1999 Arizona Assault Rate National Assault Rate 1990 442.8 424.1 1996 Arizona Assault Rate National Assault Rate 424.0 390.9 1991 454.8 433.3 1997 417.1 382.3 1992 466.6 441.8 1998 373.6 361.3 1993 505.7 440.3 1999 361.6 336.1 1994 494.7 427.6 1995 495.7 418.3
Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1990-1999
Percent Change (1990-1999) -18.3% -20.7%
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 18
Property Crime Rates
When considering the property crimes of burglary, larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft 6, Arizona ranked third in comparison to other states and the District of Columbia with a property crime rate 42.8 percent higher than the national rate. Although Arizona's 1999 rate was quite high, it was 10.9 percent lower than in 1998 (see Table 2-14). In 1999, larceny-theft offenses accounted for 65.7 percent of Arizona's reported property crimes, burglary offenses made up 19.4 percent of the total and motor vehicle theft contributed 15 percent. Table 2-14: Property Crime Rate per 100,000 Population, 1999 Top 10 Rankings of States and District of Columbia Compared with 1998 (in parentheses) Rank 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. State (1998 Rank) District of Columbia (1) Florida (3) Arizona (2) New Mexico (4) Louisiana (6) Washington (5) Utah (8) North Carolina (12) Oregon (7) Georgia (10) United States 1999 Rate 6,439.3 5,351.6 5,345.4 5,127.6 5,014.2 4,878.3 4,700.9 4,633.3 4,627.1 4,614.6 3,742.1 1998 Rate (7,117.0) (5,947.4) (5,997.0) (5,757.7) (5,318.8) (5,438.9) (5,191.7) (4,742.8) (5,226.8) (4,890.3) (4,051.8) Percent Change (1998-1999) -9.5% -10.0% -10.9% -10.9% -5.7% -10.3% -9.5% -2.3% -11.5% -5.6% -7.6%
Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1998-1999
6
The FBI excludes arson offenses when estimating property crime totals due to a lack of sufficient data. Also see footnote 4 on Page 7 of this report. Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 19
Figure 2-8
PROPERTY CRIME RATES
1990 - 1999
7500 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500
Rate Per 100,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994 1995 Year
Arizona
1996
1997
1998
1999
National
Figure 2-8 shows that over the past 10 years, Arizona's property crime rate was much higher than the national rate and experienced an upward spike in the mid-1990s that was not matched nationally. By decade's end, both national and Arizona property crime rates fell over 26 percent and reached 10-year lows, as can be seen in Table 2-15. Table 2-15: Arizona and National Property Crime Rates, 1990-1999 Arizona Property Crime Rate National Property Crime Rate 1990 7,236.4 5,088.5 1996 Arizona Property Crime Rate National Property Crime Rate 6,435.5 4,450.1 1991 6,734.9 5,139.7 1997 6,571.3 4,318.7 1992 6,357.8 4,902.7 1998 5,997.0 4,051.8 1993 6,716.7 4,737.6 1999 5,345.4 3,742.1 1994 7,221.4 4,660.0 1995 7,500.1 4,591.3
Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1990-1999
Percent Change (1990-1999) -26.1% -26.5%
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 20
Burglary Rates
The UCR Program defines burglary as the unlawful entry of a structure to commit a felony or theft. The use of force to gain entry is not required to classify an offense as burglary. With 1,034.4 burglary offenses per 100,000 population, Arizona's 1999 rate was significantly higher than the national rate (770 burglary offenses per 100,000 population). Arizona ranked sixth in comparison to other states and the District of Columbia. See Table 216. However, the Arizona rate decreased 14.5 percent between 1998 and 1999, resulting in the lowest burglary rate recorded in Arizona in more than three decades. Table 2-16: Burglary Rate per 100,000 Population, 1999 Top 10 Rankings of States and District of Columbia Compared with 1998 (in parentheses) Rank 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. State (1998 Rank) North Carolina (3) New Mexico (1) Florida (2) Louisiana (6) Mississippi (8) Arizona (5) Oklahoma (9) South Carolina (7) District of Columbia (4) Nevada (10) United States 1999 Rate 1,286.9 1,234.5 1,200.3 1,092.7 1,051.2 1,034.4 1,026.6 1,019.8 976.3 973.6 770.0 1998 Rate (1,324.6) (1,394.0) (1,361.7) (1,172.1) (1,144.5) (1,209.5) (1,143.4) (1,162.7) (1,216.3) (1,137.6) (863.0) Percent Change (1998-1999) -2.8% -11.4% -11.8% -6.8% -8.2% -14.5% -10.2% -12.3% -19.7% -14.4% -10.8%
Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1998-1999
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 21
Figure 2-9
BURGLARY RATES
1990 - 1999
1700
Rate Per 100,000 Population
1500
1300
1100
900
700
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994 1995 Year
1996
1997
1998
1999
Arizona
National
Figure 2-9 shows that both the Arizona and national burglary rates declined between 1990 and 1999 with the Arizona burglary rate invariably higher than the national rate. In the last 10 years, the burglary rate in Arizona decreased 38.1 percent, consistent with the decrease experienced on a national level. See Table 2-17. Table 2-17: Arizona and National Burglary Rates, 1990-1999 Arizona Burglary Rate National Burglary Rate 1990 1,669.9 1,235.9 1996 Arizona Burglary Rate National Burglary Rate 1,256.3 944.8 1991 1,607.5 1,252.0 1997 1,318.9 919.4 1992 1,411.7 1,168.2 1998 1,209.5 863.0 1993 1,465.5 1,099.2 1999 1,034.4 770.0 1994 1,476.2 1,042.0 1995 1,416.8 987.1
Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1990-1999
Percent Change (1990-1999) -38.1% -37.7%
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 22
Larceny-Theft Rates
Larceny-theft is the unlawful taking, carrying, leading, or riding away of property from the possession or constructive possession of another in which no use of force, violence, or fraud occurs. Larceny-theft does not include motor vehicle theft, which is a Crime Index offense of its own. Arizona historically has a higher larceny-theft rate than the nation. In 1999, Arizona ranked fourth among all other states and the District of Columbia with a larceny-theft rate of 3,510.5 per 100,000 population. As shown in Table 2-18, the national rate was 2,551.4. Between 1998 and 1999, Arizona's larceny-theft rate declined slightly more (-10.5 percent) than the national rate (-6.5 percent). Table 2-18: Larceny-Theft Rate per 100,000 Population, 1999 Top 10 Rankings of States and District of Columbia Compared with 1998 (in parentheses) Rank 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. State (1998 Rank) District of Columbia (1) Utah (2) Florida (4) Arizona (3) New Mexico (7) Louisiana (9) Hawaii (8) Oregon (5) Washington (6) Montana (10) United States 1999 Rate 4,181.3 3,669.3 3,534.5 3,510.5 3,426.0 3,425.2 3,414.2 3,409.3 3,341.5 3,220.2 2,551.4 1998 Rate (4,657.7) (4,012.1) (3,886.8) (3,922.4) (3,743.9) (3,605.1) (3,681.0) (3,773.3) (3,757.7) (3,402.3) (2,729.0) Percent Change (1998-1999) -10.2% -8.5% -9.1% -10.5% -8.5% -5.0% -7.2% -9.6% -11.1% -5.4% -6.5%
Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1998-1999
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 23
Figure 2-10
LARCENY-THEFT RATES
1990 - 1999
5500
Rate Per 100,000 Population
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994 1995 Year
Arizona
1996
1997
1998
1999
National
Figure 2-10 shows that both Arizona and national larceny-theft rates recorded an overall decline between 1990 and 1999. However, the Arizona larceny-theft rate rose in the mid-1990s before falling in the last half of the decade. In the end, Arizona's rate remained 37.6 percent higher than the national rate. Looking at the last 10 years, as shown in Table 2-19, Arizona realized a slightly greater larceny-theft rate decrease than reported nationally. Table 2-19: Arizona and National Larceny-Theft Rates, 1990-1999 Arizona Larceny-Theft Rate National Larceny-Theft Rate 1990 4,703.0 3,194.8 1996 Arizona Larceny-Theft Rate National Larceny-Theft Rate 4,252.5 2,979.7 1991 4,266.3 3,228.8 1997 4,282.0 2,893.4 1992 4,124.6 3,103.0 1998 3,922.4 2,729.0 1993 4,387.4 3,032.4 1999 3,510.5 2,551.4 1994 4,678.5 3,026.7 1995 4,925.6 3,043.8
Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1990-1999
Percent Change (1990-1999) -25.4% -20.1%
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 24
Motor Vehicle Theft Rates
Motor vehicle theft is described as the theft or attempted theft of a motor vehicle and includes stealing automobiles, trucks, buses, motorcycles, motorscooters, snowmobiles and other like vehicles. In 1999, Arizona had a motor vehicle theft rate second only to the District of Columbia. However, at 1,281.6 offenses per 100,000 population, the District of Columbia's 1999 motor vehicle theft rate was 60.1 percent higher than Arizona's rate of 800.5. In addition, Arizona's rate declined 7.5 percent between 1998 and 1999 while the District of Columbia experienced a 3.1 percent increase. Table 2-20: Motor Vehicle Theft Rate per 100,000 Population, 1999 Top 10 Rankings of States and District of Columbia Compared with 1998 (in parentheses) Rank 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. State (1998 Rank) District of Columbia (1) Arizona (2) Nevada (3) Florida (4) Washington (6) Michigan (8) Georgia (9) California (7) Louisiana (11) Maryland (10) United States 1999 Rate 1,281.7 800.5 723.8 616.7 587.3 575.8 515.2 508.3 496.2 492.0 420.7 1998 Rate (1,243.0) (865.1) (788.0) (698.9) (618.7) (594.3) (556.6) (598.5) (541.6) (549.4) (459.8) Percent Change (1998-1999) 3.1% -7.5% -8.1% -11.8% -5.1% -3.1% -7.5% -15.1% -8.4% -10.4% -8.5%
Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1998-1999
.
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 25
Figure 2-11
MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT RATES
1990 -1999
1200 1100
Rate Per 100,000 Population
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994 1995 Year
Arizona
1996
1997
1998
1999
National
Figure 2-11 shows both Arizona and national motor vehicle theft rates were lower in 1999 than in 1990. Once again, Arizona saw a mid-1990s upward spike before rates began dropping. At the end of the decade, Arizona's motor vehicle theft rate was almost double the national rate. In the last 10 years, the national motor vehicle theft rate fell 36 percent, as shown in Table 2-21. However, in Arizona, the drop was a much smaller 7.3 percent. Table 2-21: Arizona and National Motor Vehicle Theft Rates, 1990-1999 Arizona Motor Vehicle Theft Rate National Motor Vehicle Theft Rate 1990 863.5 657.8 1996 Arizona Motor Vehicle Theft Rate National Motor Vehicle Theft Rate 926.7 525.6 1991 861.1 659.0 1997 970.4 506.0 1992 821.5 631.5 1998 865.1 459.8 1993 863.8 606.1 1999 800.5 420.7 1994 1,066.7 591.3 1995 1,157.7 560.4
Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1990-1999
Percent Change (1990-1999) -7.3% -36.0%
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 26
Section Three: A Closer Look at Arizona Crime
This section views Arizona crime more closely by analyzing UCR data at the county level and presenting a statewide 10-year history of adult and juvenile arrests. The data source is a series of Crime in Arizona reports published by DPS covering 1990 through 1999. The annual Crime in Arizona publications contain data reported to DPS by participating local police agencies, county sheriffs, college and university campus police, and state police agencies. County data are examined by number of offenses reported, crime rates and the number of offenses projected through calendar year 2004. Statewide arrest data are examined by age groups and arrest offenses. The offense and arrest numbers reported for the years 1990 through 1999 reflect unadjusted figures provided to the DPS. The term unadjusted is used because estimates have not been made to account for unreported UCR data. Offenses: In 1999, two county sheriff's offices had difficulty providing required data: one provided six-months of data from May through December; the other was unable to provide required reports due to computer issues that have since been corrected. In addition, some rural counties have an inconsistent history of UCR reporting spanning the last 10 years. Therefore, the number of offenses reported and crime rates for some rural counties, aggregated totals for all rural counties and statewide totals are lower over the 10-year period than what would have been recorded with a 100 percent reporting. Crime Rates: Crime rates reflect the number of reported offenses in relation to population. A rate is useful in interpreting crime statistics because it takes population into account and allows for comparisons between large and small jurisdictions. For example, knowing that there were 56 reported violent crimes in County A and 250 in County B is useful because it tells you that more violent crimes took place in County B. However, given this information alone, it is difficult to conclude in which county citizens may be at a greater risk of violent crime. A better picture is gained when it is expressed as rate of crime per 100,000 population 7. For example, if the violent crime rate is 191.6 in County A and 318.5 in County B, it may be concluded that for every 100,000 population in County A, 192 violent crimes might occur and, in County B, 319 violent crimes might occur. Therefore, County B may be expected to have a higher incidence of violent crime. Projections: Based on the number of offenses reported in the years 1990-1999, projections of the number of offenses which might occur in the years 2000 through 2004 were computed. Projections use a "linear regression model," a statistical method that takes into account only the number of past offenses as an indicator of possible future crime. In other words, the projection figures do not take into account any estimated changes in the economy, the changing population of Arizona or any other factors that could affect future crime. Arrests: In addition to its primary collection of Crime Index offense information, the UCR program solicits monthly data on persons arrested for all crimes except traffic violations. Arrest data are grouped as Part I or Part II offenses. The eight Crime Index offenses are classified as Part I crimes. Part II offenses include all crimes not classified as Part I. A complete listing and standardized definitions of Part II offenses are provided in Crime in the
7
Rates are computed using the following formula: [100,000 / ( population estimate) ] * number of offenses.
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 27
United States and the Crime in Arizona reports. Only arrest data are reported for Part II offenses. Population: Crime rates were computed using estimated population figures obtained from the Arizona Department of Economic Security, as shown in Table 3-1 8.
Table 3-1: Population Estimates by County, 1990-1999
Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Total 1990 61,600 98,100 96,900 40,300 26,700 8,000 13,900 95,400 77,700 116,800 29,900 108,500 108,100 881,900 2,130,400 668,500 3,680,800 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Total 64,475 114,925 113,475 45,300 31,150 8,650 18,200 127,700 84,300 144,150 35,050 134,600 124,950 1,046,925 2,634,625 780,750 4,462,300 1991 61,900 99,575 99,150 41,050 27,500 8,025 14,550 102,375 78,705 119,650 30,400 111,100 110,225 904,205 2,179,975 682,890 3,767,000 1997 65,550 119,650 117,475 47,450 32,575 8,875 17,625 133,550 89,225 150,375 36,350 142,075 129,275 1,090,050 2,720,575 789,650 4,600,275 1992 62,950 101,175 101,350 41,700 27,700 8,350 14,825 105,725 80,480 112,600 31,050 114,110 112,825 924,840 2,233,700 700,265 3,858,850 1998 66,350 123,750 121,625 49,175 34,700 9,125 19,000 138,625 92,500 157,675 37,800 148,500 135,200 1,134,025 2,806,100 823,900 4,764,025 1993 63,050 103,325 104,700 42,400 29,400 8,375 15,550 114,000 80,675 127,225 31,525 118,400 116,450 995,075 2,291,200 712,600 3,958,875 1999 66,950 124,575 122,825 50,150 35,750 9,225 19,250 142,925 93,400 165,400 39,100 155,900 139,650 1,165,100 2,913,475 845,775 4,924,350 1994 63,275 108,225 107,500 43,350 30,625 8,425 16,075 120,325 81,750 132,225 32,400 123,500 119,650 987,325 2,355,900 728,425 4,071,650 1995 63,750 112,000 110,750 44,525 30,050 8,525 16,700 125,150 82,875 139,000 34,275 130,300 121,975 1,019,875 2,528,700 758,575 4,307,150
Percent Change (1990-1999) 8.7% 27.0% 26.8% 24.4% 33.9% 15.3% 38.5% 49.8% 20.2% 41.6% 30.8% 43.7% 29.2% 32.1% 36.8% 26.5% 33.8%
Source: Arizona Department of Economic Security, Population Statistics Unit (County estimates may not sum to state total due to rounding)
8
Population data may vary from those published in previous years due to revised estimates.
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 28
Crime Index Offenses and Rates by County 1990-1999
Number of Crime Index Offenses: Table 3-2 provides Crime Index offenses by county and describes the overall 10-year trend. Statewide, reported offenses fell slightly (-3.3 percent). However, numbers did not fall in all counties. Seven counties saw increases that ranged from 3.3 percent (Coconino County) to 81.7 percent (Yavapai County). The remaining eight counties saw declines in reported offenses ranging from 1.7 percent (Maricopa County) to 36.6 percent (Santa Cruz County). Table 3-2: Crime Index Offenses by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 462 4,556 5,951 1,421 582 104 641 6,890 2,699 6,024 1,548 3,730 5,119 39,727 185,254 63,240 288,221 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 644 3,886 7,386 2,126 789 66 394 8,082 3,169 8,752 1,522 6,617 4,883 48,316 199,929 62,512 310,757 1991 450 4,806 5,631 1,567 652 91 272 6,711 3,144 6,327 1,601 3,987 5,298 40,537 178,538 57,346 276,421 1997 624 5,257 7,471 2,086 810 59 942 7,606 3,179 6,429 1,590 7,097 3,005 46,155 205,246 65,089 316,490 1992 504 4,141 5,715 1,602 665 71 618 6,597 2,701 7,778 1,944 3,986 745 37,067 168,078 59,062 264,207 1998 491 5,035 6,676 1,958 864 63 874 7,160 2,952 5,696 1,372 6,934 1,929 42,004 198,035 60,871 300,910 1993 613 4,416 6,321 1,612 711 88 863 7,063 2,864 7,284 2,322 5,049 1,044 40,250 179,349 65,113 284,712 1999 610 4,311 6,149 1,078 807 86 736 6,044 2,928 6,724 982 6,779 3,049 40,283 182,036 56,485 278,804 1994 796 3,653 7,109 1,867 740 93 683 8,397 2,939 8,142 1,917 6,948 1,670 44,954 197,517 72,460 314,931 1995 757 4,621 7,559 2,134 875 77 646 9,018 3,281 8,750 1,628 7,734 2,098 49,178 216,977 73,823 339,978
Percent Change (1990-1999) 32.0% -5.4% 3.3% -24.1% 38.7% -17.3% 14.8% -12.3% 8.5% 11.6% -36.6% 81.7% -40.4% 1.4% -1.7% -10.7% -3.3%
Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 29
Crime Index Rates: Table 3-2 provided the raw number of reported Crime Index offenses in each county. Table 3-3 interprets the data by taking the effects of population growth into account to produce a crime rate for each county. Of the seven counties with increases in offense numbers, only three experienced increased crime rates. For example, Yavapai County saw an 81.7 percent increase in reported offenses but only a 26.5 percent rise in the crime rate. Overall, the State's crime rate fell 27.7 percent, ending the decade at 5,661.7 crimes per 100,000 population. The two counties with the highest populations (Maricopa and Pima) also recorded the highest Crime Index rates in the State. Table 3-3: Crime Rates by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 750.0 4,644.2 6,141.4 3,526.1 2,179.8 1,300.0 4,611.5 7,222.2 3,473.6 5,157.5 5,177.3 3,437.8 4,735.4 4,504.7 8,695.7 9,460.0 7,830.4 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 998.8 3,381.3 6,508.9 4,693.2 2,532.9 763.0 2,164.8 6,328.9 3,759.2 6,071.5 4,342.4 4,916.0 3,908.0 4,615.0 7,588.5 8,006.7 6,964.1 1991 727.0 4,826.5 5,679.3 3,817.3 2,370.9 1,134.0 1,869.4 6,555.3 3,994.7 5,287.9 5,266.4 3,588.7 4,806.5 4,483.2 8,189.9 8,397.5 7,338.0 1997 951.9 4,393.6 6,359.7 4,396.2 2,486.6 664.8 5,344.7 5,695.2 3,562.9 4,275.3 4,374.1 4,995.2 2,324.5 4,234.2 7,544.2 8,242.8 6,879.8 1992 800.6 4,092.9 5,638.9 3,841.7 2,400.7 850.3 4,168.6 6,239.8 3,356.1 6,344.2 6,260.9 3,493.1 660.3 4,007.9 7,524.6 8,434.2 6,846.8 1998 740.0 4,068.7 5,489.0 3,981.7 2,489.9 690.4 4,600.0 5,165.0 3,191.4 3,612.5 3,629.6 4,669.4 1,426.8 3,704.0 7,057.3 7,388.2 6,316.3 1993 972.2 4,273.9 6,037.2 3,801.9 2,418.4 1,050.7 5,549.8 6,195.6 3,550.0 5,725.3 7,365.6 4,264.4 896.5 4,214.3 7,827.7 9,137.4 7,191.7 1999 911.1 3,460.6 5,006.3 2,149.6 2,257.3 932.2 3,823.4 4,228.8 3,134.9 4,065.3 2,511.5 4,348.3 2,183.3 3,457.5 6,248.1 6,678.5 5,661.7 1994 1,258.0 3,375.4 6,613.0 4,306.8 2,416.3 1,103.9 4,248.8 6,978.6 3,595.1 6,157.7 5,916.7 5,625.9 1,395.7 4,553.1 8,383.9 9,947.5 7,734.7 1995 1,187.5 4,125.9 6,825.3 4,792.8 2,911.8 903.2 3,868.3 7,205.8 3,959.0 6,295.0 4,749.8 5,935.5 1,720.0 4,822.0 8,580.6 9,731.8 7,893.3
Percent Change (1990-1999) 21.5% -25.5% -18.5% -39.0% 3.6% -28.3% -17.1% -41.4% -9.8% -21.2% -51.5% 26.5% -53.9% -23.2% -28.1% -29.4% -27.7%
Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 30
Figure 3-1 diagrams 10-year Crime Index rates for Pima and Maricopa counties, aggregated rural counties, and the State. It shows crime rates generally declining after 1995. Figure 3-1
CRIME RATES
1990 -- 1999
10000 Rate Per 100,000 Population 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 1990 1991 1992
Rural Cos.
1993
1994 1995 Year
Maricopa Co.
1996
Pima Co.
1997
1998
1999
Arizona
Crime Index Projections: Based on prior 10-year historical data, it is projected that rural counties may see reported Crime Index offenses increase 4.7 percent over the next five years. Maricopa County may see a similar increase. Five-year projections for Pima County show little change while, statewide the numbers could increase 3.5 percent. See Table 3-4. Table 3-4: Crime Index Offenses Projected, 2000-2004 2000 Rural Counties Maricopa County Pima County Arizona 45,818 203,581 63,186 312,585 2001 46,358 205,851 63,111 315,320 2002 46,899 208,121 63,035 318,055 2003 47,439 210,391 62,960 320,790 2004 47,979 212,661 62,885 323,525 Percent Change (2000-2004) 4.7% 4.5% -0.5% 3.5%
Source: Arizona DPS, Research and Planning
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 31
Figure 3-2 shows the actual number of offenses reported for the years 1990 through 1999 and the projected offenses for the years 2000 through 2004. Figure 3-2
CRIME INDEX OFFENSES
1990 - 2004
Actual 1990 - 1999 Projected 2000 -2004
350 300 Number of Offenses (Thousands) 250 200 150 100 50 0
1990 1991 1992 1993 Rural Cos. 1994 1995 1996 1997 Maricopa Co. 1998 1999 Pima Co. 2000 2001 2002 2003 Arizona 2004
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 32
Violent Crime
Number of Violent Crime Offenses: Table 3-5 shows the number of 1990 to 1999 violent crimes reported to law enforcement agencies in Arizona. The crime numbers in each county are fairly proportionate to that county's population. Table 3-5: Violent Crime Offenses by County, 1990-1999 (Includes murder, rape, robbery and aggravated assault) Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 44 222 381 160 53 12 76 563 201 684 107 365 470 3,338 15,686 4,604 23,628 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 67 248 448 209 56 5 46 536 315 850 223 586 462 4,051 17,170 6,405 27,626 1991 80 221 371 137 98 6 24 414 307 669 135 438 538 3,438 16,761 4,699 24,898 1997 38 402 493 231 60 1 56 450 330 635 335 679 232 3,942 17,059 6,428 27,429 1992 60 176 354 146 114 4 78 390 280 1,011 193 557 35 3,398 16,753 5,246 25,397 1998 37 331 464 198 67 5 60 519 274 564 111 736 105 3,471 16,846 5,964 26,281 1993 88 230 396 149 116 4 122 515 319 743 224 513 56 3,475 18,554 5,304 27,333 1999 66 431 429 113 50 5 60 470 290 864 95 698 370 3,941 16,579 5,315 25,835 1994 57 269 440 161 125 1 163 614 307 798 268 576 114 3,893 18,197 5,921 28,011 1995 64 231 490 239 131 3 147 581 330 820 170 708 117 4,031 18,720 6,603 29,354
Percent Change (1990-1999) 50.0% 94.1% 12.6% -29.4% -5.7% -58.3% -21.1% -16.5% 44.3% 26.3% -11.2% 91.2% -21.3% 18.1% 5.7% 15.4% 9.3%
Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 33
Violent Crime Rates: Violent crime rates for 1999 are highest in the urban counties of Pima and Maricopa. Pinal County, which borders both of those counties, had the third highest violent crime rate in the State. Over the last 10 years, all but three counties (Apache, Cochise and Navajo) saw declines in violent crime rates. See Table 3-6. Table 3-6: Violent Crime Rates by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 71.4 226.3 393.2 397.0 198.5 150.0 546.8 590.1 258.7 585.6 357.9 336.4 434.8 378.5 736.3 688.7 641.9 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 103.9 215.8 394.8 461.4 179.8 57.8 252.7 419.7 373.7 589.7 636.2 435.4 369.7 386.9 651.7 820.4 619.1 1991 129.2 221.9 374.2 333.7 356.4 74.8 164.9 404.4 390.1 559.1 444.1 394.2 488.1 380.2 768.9 688.1 661.0 1997 58.0 336.0 419.7 486.8 184.2 11.3 317.7 337.0 369.9 422.3 921.6 477.9 179.5 361.6 627.0 814.0 596.2 1992 95.3 174.0 349.3 350.1 411.6 47.9 526.1 368.9 347.9 824.6 621.6 488.1 31.0 367.4 750.0 749.1 658.1 1998 55.8 267.5 381.5 402.6 193.1 54.8 315.8 374.4 296.2 357.7 293.7 495.6 77.7 306.1 600.3 723.9 551.7 1993 139.6 222.6 378.2 351.4 394.6 47.8 784.6 451.8 395.4 584.0 710.5 433.3 48.1 363.8 809.8 744.3 690.4 1999 98.6 346.0 349.3 225.3 139.9 54.2 311.7 328.8 310.5 522.4 243.0 447.7 264.9 338.3 569.0 628.4 524.6 1994 90.1 248.6 409.3 371.4 408.2 11.9 1,014.0 510.3 375.5 603.5 827.2 466.4 95.3 394.3 772.4 812.8 688.0 1995 100.4 206.3 442.4 536.8 435.9 35.2 880.2 464.2 398.2 589.9 496.0 543.4 95.9 395.2 740.3 870.4 681.5
Percent Change (1990-1999) 38.0% 52.9% -11.2% -43.2% -29.5% -63.9% -43.0% -44.3% 20.0% -10.8% -32.1% 33.1% -39.1% -10.6% -22.7% -8.8% -18.3%
Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 34
As seen in Figure 3-3, Arizona's overall violent crime rate and that of Maricopa County started falling in 1994. However, Pima County rates didn't begin a downward trend until 1996 while aggregated rural counties actually experienced an increase in 1999. Figure 3-3
VIOLENT CRIME RATES
1990 -- 1999
900 Rate Per 100,000 Population 800 700 600 500 400 300
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994 1995 Year
1996
1997
1998
1999
Rural Cos.
Maricopa Co.
Pima Co.
Arizona
Violent Crime Projections: Based upon the number of offenses reported for violent crime in the years 1990 through 1999, projected offense figures for the next five years are shown in Table 3-7. Overall, it is expected that the number of violent crime offenses will increase by 3.6 percent statewide with even higher increases anticipated in Pima County and aggregated rural counties. Maricopa County projections show a less than 1 percent rise in offenses. Table 3-7: Violent Crime Offenses Projected, 2000-2004 2000 Rural Counties Maricopa County Pima County Arizona 4,039 17,450 6,487 27,977 2001 4,101 17,490 6,640 28,231 2002 4,163 17,529 6,792 28,485 2003 4,226 17,569 6,944 28,739 2004 4,288 17,609 7,097 28,993 Percent Change (2000-2004) 6.1% 0.9% 9.4% 3.6%
Source: Arizona DPS, Research and Planning
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 35
Figure 3-4 is a line graph of the number of violent crime offenses reported in years 1990 through 1999. In addition, offense projections for the years 2000 through 2004 are shown as an extension of the violent offenses trend line. Figure 3-4
VIOLENT OFFENSES
1990 - 2004
30 25 Number of Offenses (Thousands) 20 15 10 5 0
Actual 1990 - 1999 Projected 2000 - 2004
1990 1991
1992 1993 Rural Cos.
1994 1995
1996 1997
1998 1999
2000 2001
2002 2003 Arizona
2004
Maricopa Co.
Pima Co.
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 36
Murder
Number of Murder Offenses: Murders occurring in Maricopa and Pima Counties comprised 89.6 percent of all murders reported in Arizona in 1999. However, the populations of these two counties comprised only 76.3 percent of the state population. See Table 3-8 for the number of murders reported in each county during the years 1990 through 1999. Table 3-8: Murder Offenses by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 2 4 4 4 1 0 1 7 2 12 1 11 4 53 174 51 278 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 3 2 4 0 0 0 0 10 2 9 1 5 4 40 259 75 374 1991 0 7 1 1 1 0 0 3 4 15 2 3 3 40 203 44 287 1997 0 6 4 6 0 0 0 12 1 4 1 7 1 42 255 64 361 1992 1 5 5 1 1 0 1 14 1 12 4 7 1 53 196 60 309 1998 0 4 8 1 1 1 1 10 4 4 0 7 0 41 252 74 367 1993 1 2 7 2 1 0 3 13 3 13 1 4 0 50 216 65 331 1999 0 3 5 0 1 0 0 8 5 4 0 11 3 40 283 61 384 1994 0 9 7 3 0 0 2 13 3 12 3 13 2 67 295 57 419 1995 2 4 9 3 2 0 2 5 1 9 3 7 3 50 298 92 440
Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999
Percent Change (1990-1999) -100.0% -25.0% 25.0% -100.0% 0.0% 0.0% -100.0% 14.3% 150.0% -66.7% -100.0% 0.0% -25.0% -24.5% 62.6% 19.6% 38.1%
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 37
Murder Rates: Table 3-9 shows that over the last decade the statewide murder rate increased slightly (3.2 percent), but declined or remained unchanged in 13 of 15 counties. The only two counties to see an increase were Maricopa and Navajo. Table 3-9: Murder Rates by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 3.2 4.1 4.1 9.9 3.7 0.0 7.2 7.3 2.6 10.3 3.3 10.1 3.7 6.0 8.2 7.6 7.6 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties- Subtotal Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 4.7 1.7 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 2.4 6.2 2.9 3.7 3.2 3.8 9.8 9.6 8.4 1991 0.0 7.0 1.0 2.4 3.6 0.0 0.0 2.9 5.1 12.5 6.6 2.7 2.7 4.4 9.3 6.4 7.6 1997 0.0 5.0 3.4 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 1.1 2.7 2.8 4.9 0.8 3.9 9.4 8.1 7.8 1992 1.6 4.9 4.9 2.4 3.6 0.0 6.7 13.2 1.2 9.8 12.9 6.1 0.9 5.7 8.8 8.6 8.0 1998 0.0 3.2 6.6 2.0 2.9 11.0 5.3 7.2 4.3 2.5 0.0 4.7 0.0 3.6 9.0 9.0 7.7 1993 1.6 1.9 6.7 4.7 3.4 0.0 19.3 11.4 3.7 10.2 3.2 3.4 0.0 5.2 9.4 9.1 8.4 1999 0.0 2.4 4.1 0.0 2.8 0.0 0.0 5.6 5.4 2.4 0.0 7.1 2.1 3.4 9.7 7.2 7.8 1994 0.0 8.3 6.5 6.9 0.0 0.0 12.4 10.8 3.7 9.1 9.3 10.5 1.7 6.8 12.5 7.8 10.3 1995 3.1 3.6 8.1 6.7 6.7 0.0 12.0 4.0 1.2 6.5 8.8 5.4 2.5 4.9 11.8 12.1 10.2
Percent Change (1990-1999) -100.0% -40.9% -1.4% -100.0% -25.3% 0.0% -100.0% -23.7% 108.0% -76.5% -100.0% -30.4% -41.9% -42.9% 18.9% -5.5% 3.2%
Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 38
After a sharp upward spike in the mid-1990s, Arizona murder rates gradually declined, as can be seen in Figure 3-5. Maricopa County rates were also falling until 1999, when rates rose for the first time since 1994. Figure 3-5
MURDER RATES
1990 -- 1999
13
Rate Per 100,000 Population
11
9
7
5
3
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994 1995 Year
1996
1997
1998
1999
Rural Cos.
Maricopa Co.
Pima Co.
Arizona
Murder Offense Projections: Table 3-10 projects the possible number of murders for the years 2000 through 2004. Although statewide murder offenses are expected to increase 11.1 percent, this figure is strongly influenced by urban totals. Rural counties in Arizona are estimated to experience a decrease in murder offenses through 2004. Table 3-10: Murder Offenses Projected, 2000-2004 2000 Rural Counties Maricopa County Pima County Arizona 41 301 77 419 2001 39 312 79 431 2002 38 323 82 442 2003 37 333 84 454 2004 35 344 86 466 Percent Change (2000-2004) -12.7% 14.1% 12.1% 11.1%
Source: Arizona DPS, Research and Planning
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 39
Rape
Number of Rape Offenses: The number of rapes reported in Arizona decreased 8.4 percent in the last 10 years. Pima County saw a slightly larger decrease of 11.6 percent during the same period. In Maricopa County, rape offense numbers fell by 4.8 percent over 10 years. See Table 3-11. Table 3-11: Rape Offenses by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 4 16 30 18 1 0 4 16 11 65 2 22 29 218 875 387 1,480 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 6 7 37 10 1 0 0 17 17 64 3 41 25 228 778 377 1,383 1991 2 16 52 15 1 0 2 18 17 61 1 25 30 240 902 427 1,569 1997 3 7 44 24 1 0 0 14 10 42 0 38 5 188 832 409 1,429 1992 5 12 39 18 4 1 2 23 26 79 2 17 0 228 895 481 1,604 1998 2 10 38 22 2 0 3 18 10 31 3 27 1 167 745 491 1,403 1993 3 8 42 18 1 1 2 19 15 62 4 21 2 198 816 425 1,439 1999 4 9 38 6 1 0 3 15 16 35 7 28 18 180 833 342 1,355 1994 2 13 49 17 0 0 2 35 19 61 0 33 6 237 771 401 1,409 1995 3 4 32 19 4 0 0 29 26 58 1 34 9 219 766 394 1,379
Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999
Percent Change (1990-1999) 0.0% -43.8% 26.7% -66.7% 0.0% 0.0% -25.0% -6.3% 45.5% -46.2% 250.0% 27.3% -37.9% -17.4% -4.8% -11.6% -8.4%
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 40
Rape Rates: The 1990 1999 rates provided in Table 3-12 reflect a 31.6 percent decline in the state rape rate. Maricopa and Pima Counties experienced similar decreases. All counties except Navajo and Santa Cruz saw rates fall or remain unchanged in the last decade. Table 3-12: Rape Rates by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 6.5 16.3 31.0 44.7 3.7 0.0 28.8 16.8 14.2 55.7 6.7 20.3 26.8 24.7 41.1 57.9 40.2 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 9.3 6.1 32.6 22.1 3.2 0.0 0.0 13.3 20.2 44.4 8.6 30.5 20.0 21.8 29.5 48.3 31.0 1991 3.2 16.1 52.4 36.5 3.6 0.0 13.7 17.6 21.6 51.0 3.3 22.5 27.2 26.5 41.4 62.5 41.7 1997 4.6 5.9 37.5 50.6 3.1 0.0 0.0 10.5 11.2 27.9 0.0 26.7 3.9 17.2 30.6 51.8 31.1 1992 7.9 11.9 38.5 43.2 14.4 12.0 13.5 21.8 32.3 64.4 6.4 14.9 0.0 24.7 40.1 68.7 41.6 1998 3.0 8.1 31.2 44.7 5.8 0.0 15.8 13.0 10.8 19.7 7.9 18.2 0.7 14.7 26.5 59.6 29.4 1993 4.8 7.7 40.1 42.5 3.4 11.9 12.9 16.7 18.6 48.7 12.7 17.7 1.7 20.7 35.6 59.6 36.3 1999 6.0 7.2 30.9 12.0 2.8 0.0 15.6 10.5 17.1 21.2 17.9 18.0 12.9 15.4 28.6 40.4 27.5 1994 3.2 12.0 45.6 39.2 0.0 0.0 12.4 29.1 23.2 46.1 0.0 26.7 5.0 24.0 32.7 55.1 34.6 1995 4.7 3.6 28.9 42.7 13.3 0.0 0.0 23.2 31.4 41.7 2.9 26.1 7.4 21.5 30.3 51.9 32.0
Percent Change (1990-1999) -8.0% -55.7% -0.1% -73.2% -25.3% 0.0% -45.8% -37.4% 21.0% -62.0% 167.6% -11.4% -52.0% -37.5% -30.4% -30.2% -31.6%
Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 41
Figure 3-6 shows the rape rate trends for the last 10 years. It appears that Pima County's overall 30.2 percent decline in the rape rate was greatly influenced by a dramatic drop in the 1999 rate following increases in 1997 and 1998. Figure 3-6
RAPE RATES
1990 -- 1999
70 Rate Per 100,000 Population 60 50 40 30 20 10
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994 1995 Year
1996
1997
1998
Arizona
1999
Rural Cos.
Maricopa Co.
Pima Co.
Rape Offense Projections: Over the next five years, reported rape offenses are projected to decrease in all parts of Arizona. Table 3-13 indicates that the State could experience a 6.1 percent drop with a more significant reduction in rural counties. Table 3-13: Rape Offenses Projected, 2000-2004 2000 Rural Counties Maricopa County Pima County Arizona 178 758 398 1,333 2001 172 746 395 1,313 2002 166 734 392 1,292 2003 160 723 389 1,272 2004 154 711 386 1,252 Percent Change (2000-2004) -13.4% -6.1% -2.9% -6.1%
Source: Arizona DPS, Research and Planning
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 42
Robbery
Number of Robbery Offenses: Table 3-14 shows that the number of robberies reported between 1990 and 1999 increased in eight of the 15 counties. Statewide, the number of robberies grew 23.5 percent. Table 3-14: Robbery Offenses by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 1 28 57 9 2 1 5 45 10 81 15 22 53 329 4,465 1,082 5,876 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1 32 68 9 1 0 6 73 28 89 37 28 58 430 5,373 1,557 7,360 1991 3 20 61 12 0 0 1 57 18 96 29 24 65 386 4,727 1,077 6,190 1997 4 44 50 11 0 0 9 40 33 90 22 38 22 363 5,188 1,745 7,296 1992 0 27 54 4 2 0 3 49 24 100 81 27 2 373 4,245 1,171 5,789 1998 2 43 60 1 1 0 3 75 16 88 30 51 2 372 5,434 1,742 7,548 1993 3 33 48 10 2 0 6 69 16 91 96 31 10 415 4,811 1,075 6,301 1999 1 48 66 5 2 0 7 58 21 90 12 39 22 371 5,376 1,508 7,255 1994 5 32 55 8 0 0 8 81 24 91 101 40 7 452 4,801 1,226 6,479 1995 4 30 51 8 0 0 6 115 24 74 51 38 12 413 5,281 1,445 7,139
Percent Change (1990-1999) 0.0% 71.4% 15.8% -44.4% 0.0% -100.0% 40.0% 28.9% 110.0% 11.1% -20.0% 77.3% -58.5% 12.8% 20.4% -39.4% 23.5%
Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 43
Robbery Rates: Unlike the trends seen in robbery offenses, Table 3-15 demonstrates that while the robbery reports were increasing, they did not increase at the same rate as the population. As a result, Arizona experienced a 7.7 percent decrease in the robbery rate in the last 10 years. Table 3-15: Robbery Rates by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 1.6 28.5 58.8 22.3 7.5 12.5 36.0 47.2 12.9 69.3 50.2 20.3 49.0 37.3 209.6 161.9 159.6 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1.6 27.8 59.9 19.9 3.2 0.0 33.0 57.2 33.2 61.7 105.6 20.8 46.4 41.1 203.9 199.4 164.9 1991 4.8 20.1 61.5 29.2 0.0 0.0 6.9 55.7 22.9 80.2 95.4 21.6 59.0 42.7 216.8 157.7 164.3 1997 6.1 36.8 42.6 23.2 0.0 0.0 51.1 30.0 37.0 59.9 60.5 26.7 17.0 33.3 190.7 221.0 158.6 1992 0.0 26.7 53.3 9.6 7.2 0.0 20.2 46.3 29.8 81.6 260.9 23.7 1.8 40.3 190.0 167.2 150.0 1998 3.0 34.7 49.3 2.0 2.9 0.0 15.8 54.1 17.3 55.8 79.4 34.3 1.5 32.8 193.6 211.4 158.4 1993 4.8 31.9 45.8 23.6 6.8 0.0 38.6 60.5 19.8 71.5 304.5 26.2 8.6 43.5 210.0 150.9 159.2 1999 1.5 38.5 53.7 10.0 5.6 0.0 36.4 40.6 22.5 54.4 30.7 25.0 15.8 31.8 184.5 178.3 147.3 1994 7.9 29.6 51.2 18.5 0.0 0.0 49.8 67.3 29.4 68.8 311.7 32.4 5.9 45.8 203.8 168.3 159.1 1995 6.3 26.8 46.0 18.0 0.0 0.0 35.9 91.9 29.0 53.2 148.8 29.2 9.8 40.5 208.8 190.5 165.7
Percent Change (1990-1999) -8.0% 35.0% -8.7% -55.4% -25.3% -100.0% 1.1% -14.0% 74.7% -21.5% -38.8% 23.4% -67.9% -14.6% -12.0% 10.2% -7.7%
Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 44
County by county fluctuations in robbery rates have varied over the last 10 years with five counties seeing increases while rates dropped in the rest of the State. As Figure 3-7 demonstrates, robbery rates in urban areas were considerably higher than in rural parts of the State. Figure 3-7
ROBBERY RATES
1990 -- 1999
225 200 Rate Per 100,000 Population 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year 1996 1997 1998 1999
Rural Cos.
Maricopa Co.
Pima Co.
Arizona
Robbery Offense Projections: In the next five years, the number of robbery offenses might rise slightly in the rural counties and at a higher rate in Maricopa and Pima Counties. Overall, the State could experience a 10.3 percent increase in robberies by 2004. See Table 316. Table 3-16: Robbery Offenses Projected, 2000-2004 2000 Rural Counties Maricopa County Pima County Arizona 398 5,638 1,797 7,833 2001 400 5,759 1,876 8,035 2002 401 5,881 1,955 8,236 2003 403 6,002 2,034 8,438 2004 404 6,123 2,113 8,640 Percent Change (2000-2004) 1.4% 8.6% 17.6% 10.3%
Source: Arizona DPS, Research and Planning
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 45
Aggravated Assault
Number of Aggravated Assault Offenses: Table 3-17 shows that the number of reported aggravated assault offenses in Arizona reached its peak during the mid-1990s. By the end of the decade, eight counties recorded decreased numbers of offenses while seven experienced increases. Table 3-17: Aggravated Assault Offenses by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 37 174 290 129 49 11 66 495 178 526 89 310 384 2,738 10,172 3,084 15,994 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 57 207 339 190 54 5 40 436 268 688 182 512 375 3,353 10,760 4,396 18,509 1991 75 178 257 109 96 6 21 336 268 497 103 386 440 2,772 10,929 3,151 16,852 1997 31 345 395 190 59 1 47 384 286 499 312 596 204 3,349 10,784 4,210 18,343 1992 54 132 256 123 107 3 72 304 229 820 106 506 32 2,744 11,417 3,534 17,695 1998 33 274 358 174 63 4 53 416 244 441 78 651 102 2,891 10,415 3,657 16,963 1993 81 187 299 119 112 3 111 414 285 577 123 457 44 2,812 12,711 3,739 19,262 1999 61 371 320 102 46 5 50 389 248 735 76 620 327 3,350 10,087 3,404 16,841 1994 50 215 329 133 125 1 151 485 261 634 164 490 99 3,137 12,330 4,237 19,704 1995 55 193 398 209 125 3 139 432 279 679 115 629 93 3,349 12,375 4,672 20,396
Percent Change (1990-1999) 64.9% 113.2% 10.3% -20.9% -6.1% -54.5% -24.2% -21.4% 39.3% 39.7% -14.6% 100.0% -14.8% 22.4% -0.8% 10.4% 5.3%
Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 46
Aggravated Assault Rates: Eleven counties saw declines in aggravated assault rates over the last decade with rural county rates often lower than those of urban counties, as shown in Table 3-18. Pinal County, which borders urban Maricopa and Pima counties, had the highest aggravated assault rate in 1999. Table 3-18: Aggravated Assault Rates by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 60.1 177.4 299.3 320.1 183.5 137.5 474.8 518.9 229.1 450.3 297.7 385.7 355.2 310.5 477.5 461.3 434.5 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 88.4 180.1 298.7 419.4 173.4 57.8 219.8 341.4 317.9 477.3 519.3 380.4 300.1 320.3 408.4 563.0 414.8 1991 121.2 178.8 259.2 265.5 349.1 74.8 144.3 328.2 340.5 415.4 338.8 347.4 399.2 306.6 501.3 461.4 447.4 1997 47.3 288.3 336.2 400.4 181.1 11.3 266.7 287.5 320.5 331.8 858.3 419.5 157.8 307.2 396.4 533.1 398.7 1992 85.8 130.5 252.6 295.0 386.3 35.9 485.7 287.5 284.5 668.8 341.4 443.4 28.4 296.7 511.1 504.7 458.6 1998 49.7 221.4 294.3 353.8 181.6 43.8 278.9 300.1 263.8 279.7 206.3 438.4 75.4 254.9 371.2 443.9 356.1 1993 128.5 181.0 285.6 280.7 381.0 35.8 713.8 363.2 353.3 453.5 390.2 386.0 37.8 294.4 554.8 524.7 486.6 1999 91.1 297.8 260.5 203.4 128.7 54.2 259.7 272.2 265.5 444.4 194.4 397.7 234.2 287.5 346.2 402.5 342.0 1994 79.0 198.7 306.0 306.8 408.2 11.9 939.3 403.1 319.3 479.5 506.2 396.8 82.7 317.7 523.4 581.7 483.9 1995 86.3 172.3 359.4 469.4 416.0 35.2 832.3 345.2 336.7 488.5 335.5 482.7 76.2 328.4 489.4 615.9 473.5
Percent Change (1990-1999) 51.7% 67.9% -12.9% -36.5% -29.9% -60.6% -45.3% -47.5% 15.9% -1.3% -34.7% 39.2% -34.1% -7.4% -27.5% -12.8% -21.3%
Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 47
As pictured in Figure 3-8, 10-year trend lines show that aggravated assault rates were lower throughout the State at the end of the decade. However in 1999, aggregated rural areas saw a slight increase over the previous year. Figure 3-8
ASSAULT RATES
1990 -- 1999
650 600 Rate Per 100,000 Population 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year 1996 1997 1998 1999
Rural Cos.
Maricopa Co.
Pima Co.
Arizona
Aggravated Assault Offense Projections: Statewide, aggravated assault numbers are projected to stay about the same over the next five years. Pima and aggregated rural counties are expected to see increases around 7 percent while Maricopa County could see a slight decline in numbers. See Table 3-19. Table 3-19: Aggravated Assault Offenses Projected, 2000-2004 2000 Rural Counties Maricopa County Pima County Arizona 3,423 10,753 4,215 18,392 2001 3,491 10,673 4,289 18,453 2002 3,559 10,592 4,363 18,514 2003 3,627 10,511 4,437 18,575 2004 3,694 10,430 4,511 18,636 Percent Change (2000-2004) 7.9% -3.0% 7.0% 1.3%
Source: Arizona DPS, Research and Planning
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 48
Property Crime
Number of Property Crime Offenses: While the number of Arizona residents rose 33.8 percent over the last 10 years, reported property crime offenses decreased 4.4 percent. See Table 3-20. Table 3-20: Property Crime Offenses by County, 1990-1999 (Includes burglary, larceny, motor vehicle theft and arson) Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 418 4,334 5,570 1,261 529 92 565 6,327 2,498 5,340 1,441 3,365 4,649 36,389 169,568 58,636 264,593 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 577 3,638 6,938 1,917 733 61 348 7,546 2,854 7,902 1,299 6,031 4,421 44,265 182,759 56,107 283,131 1991 370 4,585 5,260 1,430 554 85 248 6,297 2,837 5,658 1,466 3,549 4,760 37,099 161,777 52,647 251,523 1997 586 4,855 6,978 1,855 750 58 886 7,156 2,849 5,794 1,255 6,418 2,773 42,213 188,187 58,661 289,061 1992 444 3,965 5,361 1,456 551 67 540 6,207 2,421 6,767 1,751 3,429 710 33,669 151,325 53,816 238,810 1998 454 4,704 6,212 1,760 797 58 814 6,641 2,678 5,132 1,261 6,198 1,824 38,533 181,189 54,907 274,629 1993 525 4,186 5,925 1,463 595 84 741 6,548 2,545 6,541 2,098 4,536 988 36,775 160,795 59,809 257,379 1999 544 3,880 5,720 965 757 81 676 5,574 2,638 5,860 887 6,081 2,679 36,342 165,457 51,170 252,969 1994 739 3,384 6,669 1,706 615 92 520 7,783 2,632 7,344 1,649 6,372 1,556 41,061 179,320 66,539 286,920 1995 693 4,390 7,069 1,895 744 74 499 8,437 2,951 7,930 1,458 7,026 1,981 45,147 198,257 67,220 310,624
Percent Change (1990-1999) 30.1% -10.5% 2.7% -23.5% 43.1% -12.0% 19.6% -11.9% 5.6% 9.7% -38.4% 80.7% -42.4% -0.1% -2.4% -12.7% -4.4%
Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 49
Property Crime Rates: The state of Arizona historically has a high property crime rate. In 1999, 5,137 property crimes occurred per every 100,000 unit of population. This rate is a 30year low and reflects a 28.5 percent decrease since 1990. With the exception of Apache, Graham and Yavapai Counties, all Arizona counties saw property crime rates fall over the last 10 years. See Table 3-21. Table 3-21: Property Crime Rates by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 678.6 4,417.9 5,748.2 3,129.0 1,981.3 1,150.0 4,064.7 6,632.1 3,214.9 4,571.9 4,819.4 3,101.4 4,300.6 4,126.2 7,959.4 8,771.3 7,188.5 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 894.9 3,165.5 6,114.1 4,231.8 2,353.1 705.2 1,912.1 5,909.2 3,385.5 5,481.8 3,706.1 4,480.7 3,538.2 4,228.1 6,936.8 7,186.3 6,345.0 1991 597.7 4,604.6 5,305.1 3,483.6 2,014.5 1,059.2 1,704.5 6,150.9 3,604.6 4,728.8 4,822.4 3,194.4 4,318.4 4,102.9 7,421.0 7,709.4 6,677.0 1997 894.0 4,057.7 5,940.0 3,909.4 2,302.4 653.5 5,027.0 5,358.3 3,193.1 3,853.0 3,452.5 4,517.3 2,145.0 3,872.6 6,917.2 7,428.7 6,283.6 1992 705.3 3,919.0 5,289.6 3,491.6 1,989.2 802.4 3,642.5 5,870.9 3,008.2 5,519.6 5,639.3 3,005.0 629.3 3,640.5 6,774.6 7,685.1 6,688.6 1998 684.3 3,801.2 5,107.5 3,579.1 2,296.8 635.6 4,284.2 4,790.6 2,895.1 3,254.8 3,336.0 4,173.7 1,349.1 3,397.9 6,457.0 6,664.3 5,764.6 1993 832.7 4,051.3 5,659.0 3,450.5 2,023.8 1,003.0 4,765.3 5,743.9 3,154.6 5,141.3 6,655.0 3,831.1 848.4 3,850.5 7,017.9 8,393.1 6,501.3 1999 812.5 3,114.6 4,657.0 1,924.2 2,117.5 878.0 3,511.7 3,899.9 2,824.4 3,542.9 2,268.5 3,900.6 1,918.4 3,119.2 5,679.0 6,050.1 5,137.1 1994 1,167.9 3,126.8 6,203.7 3,935.4 2,008.2 1,092.0 3,234.8 6,468.3 3,219.6 5,554.2 5,089.5 5,159.5 1,300.5 4,158.8 7,611.5 9,134.6 7,046.8 1995 1,087.1 3,919.6 6,382.8 4,256.0 2,475.9 868.0 2,988.0 6,741.5 3,560.8 5,705.0 4,253.8 5,392.2 1,624.1 4,426.7 7,840.3 8,861.4 7,211.8
Percent Change (1990-1999) 19.7% -29.5% -19.0% -38.5% 6.9% -23.6% -13.6% -41.2% -12.1% -22.5% -52.9% 25.8% -55.4% -24.4% -28.7% -31.0% -28.5%
Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 50
As in other crime areas discussed in this report, trend lines for property crime rates in the 1990s look like a roller coaster: falling, rising and falling again as represented in Figure 3-9. For most counties, the highest rates were recorded in the mid-1990s and rates were lower at the end of the decade. Figure 3-9
PROPERTY CRIME RATES
1990 -- 1999
10000 Rate Per 100,000 Population 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year 1996
Pima Co.
1997
1998
Arizona
1999
Rural Cos.
Maricopa Co.
Property Crime Projections: In Table 3-22, projections show that Arizona property crime numbers could grow 3.5 percent through 2004. Pima County might see a small decrease in reported property crimes, while all other parts of the State should experience a less than 5 percent rise. Table 3-22: Property Crime Offenses Projected, 2000-2004 2000 Rural Counties Maricopa County Pima County Arizona 41,779 186,131 56,699 284,609 2001 42,257 188,361 56,471 287,089 2002 42,735 190,592 56,243 289,570 2003 43,213 192,822 56,016 292,051 2004 43,692 195,053 55,788 294,532 Percent Change (2000-2004) 4.6% 4.8% -1.6% 3.5%
Source: Arizona DPS, Research and Planning
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 51
Figure 3-10 is a line graph depicting property crime offenses reported in years 1990 through 1999. In addition, offense projections for the years 2000 through 2004 are shown as an extension of the 10-year trend line. Figure 3-10
PROPERTY OFFENSES
1990 - 2004
Actual 1990 - 1999 Projected 2000 - 2003
350 300 Number of Offenses (Thousands) 250 200 150 100 50 0
1990 1991 1992 1993 Rural Cos. 1994 1995 Maricopa Co. 1996 1997 1998 1999 Pima Co. 2000 2001 Arizona 2002 2003 2004
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 52
Burglary
Number of Burglary Offenses: All but three counties saw burglary offense numbers drop in the 1990s. Within the 10-year span, statewide burglary totals decreased by 19.7 percent as shown in Table 3-23. Urban counties recorded rates about 21 percent lower while rural county rates broadly ranged from a 139 percent increase to a 78 percent decline. Table 3-23: Burglary Offenses by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 140 959 1,016 291 51 32 175 1,701 640 1,524 461 796 814 8,600 41,370 10,564 60,534 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 151 816 1,028 386 88 0 118 2,080 595 1,895 423 1,317 993 9,890 36,080 9,277 55,247 1991 92 1,122 906 347 59 19 54 1,724 700 1,737 519 769 870 8,918 40,496 10,127 59,541 1997 165 1,127 1,031 436 100 1 286 2,132 657 1,272 294 1,488 716 9,705 37,972 9,895 57,572 1992 109 878 803 345 78 21 123 1,764 588 1,904 644 727 113 8,097 35,320 9,467 52,884 1998 99 1,138 982 450 143 1 163 1,877 652 1,145 308 1,499 703 9,160 36,441 9,434 55,035 1993 166 1,041 924 331 83 21 170 1,855 597 1,703 706 1,185 139 8,921 37,176 9,896 55,993 1999 129 808 732 161 122 7 143 1,282 645 1,375 177 1,359 709 7,649 32,624 8,348 48,621 1994 138 743 902 369 91 6 162 2,184 699 1,879 521 1,628 339 9,661 39,119 9,858 58,638 1995 129 1,018 992 384 103 0 113 2,291 707 1,745 505 1,571 477 10,035 39,519 8,645 58,199
Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999
Percent Change (1990-1999) -7.9% -15.7% -28.0% -44.7% 139.2% -78.1% -18.3% -24.6% 0.8% -9.8% -61.6% 70.7% -12.9% -11.1% -21.1% -21.0% -19.7%
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 53
Burglary Rates: From 1990 to 1999, the overall state burglary rate decreased 40 percent. Thirteen counties reported rate declines over the last decade, as shown in Table 3-24. The State's largest county, Maricopa, had the highest burglary rate in 1999. Table 3-24: Burglary Rates by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 227.3 977.6 1,048.5 722.1 191.0 400.0 1,259.0 1,783.0 823.7 1,304.8 1,541.8 733.6 753.0 975.2 1,941.9 1,580.3 1,644.6 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 234.2 710.0 905.9 852.1 282.5 0.0 648.4 1,628.8 705.8 1,314.6 1,206.8 978.5 794.7 944.7 1,369.5 1,188.2 1,238.1 1991 148.6 1,126.8 913.8 845.3 214.5 236.8 371.1 1,684.0 889.4 1,451.7 1,707.2 692.2 789.3 986.3 1,857.6 1,483.0 1,580.6 1997 251.7 941.9 877.6 918.9 307.0 11.3 1,622.7 1,596.4 736.3 845.9 808.8 1,047.3 553.9 890.3 1,395.7 1,253.1 1,251.5 1992 173.2 867.8 792.3 827.3 281.6 251.5 829.7 1,668.5 730.6 1,553.0 2,074.1 637.1 100.2 875.5 1,581.2 1,351.9 1,370.5 1998 149.2 919.6 807.4 915.1 412.1 11.0 857.9 1,354.0 704.9 726.2 814.8 1,009.4 520.0 807.7 1,298.6 1,145.0 1,155.2 1993 263.3 1,007.5 882.5 780.7 282.3 250.7 1,093.2 1,627.2 740.0 1,338.6 2,239.5 1,000.8 119.4 934.1 1,622.6 1,388.7 1,414.4 1999 192.7 648.6 596.0 321.0 341.3 75.9 742.9 897.0 690.6 831.3 452.7 871.7 507.7 656.5 1,119.8 987.0 987.4 1994 218.1 686.5 839.1 851.2 297.1 71.2 1,007.8 1,815.1 855.0 1,421.1 1,608.0 1,318.2 283.3 978.5 1,660.5 1,353.3 1,440.2 1995 202.4 908.9 895.7 862.4 342.8 0.0 676.6 1,830.6 853.1 1,255.4 1,473.4 1,205.7 391.1 983.9 1,562.8 1,139.6 1,351.2
Percent Change (1990-1999) -15.2% -33.7% -43.2% -55.5% 78.7% -81.0% -41.0% -49.7% -16.2% -36.3% -70.6% 18.8% -32.6% -32.7% -42.3% -37.5% -40.0%
Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 54
Although two rural counties saw burglary rates increase, rates for aggregated rural counties, urban counties and the State were lower at the end of the decade. As shown in Figure 3-11, Pima County's burglary rate declined between 1990 and 1995 and rose slightly through 1997 before taking another downward turn. Figure 3-11
BURGLARY RATES
1990 -- 1999
2000 Rate Per 100,000 Population 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 1990 1991
Rural Cos.
1992
1993
1994 1995 Year
Pima Co.
1996
1997
Arizona
1998
1999
Maricopa Co.
Burglary Offense Projections: During the next five years, reported burglary offenses in Arizona are expected to decrease 5.5 percent. The largest drops could be seen in urban Maricopa and Pima Counties, while numbers may increase slightly in aggregated rural counties. See Table 3-25. Table 3-25: Burglary Offenses Projected, 2000-2004 2000 Rural Counties Maricopa County Pima County Arizona 9,212 34,387 8,694 52,293 2001 9,239 33,801 8,538 51,578 2002 9,266 33,215 8,382 50,863 2003 9,293 32,629 8,226 50,148 2004 9,320 32,043 8,070 49,433 Percent Change (2000-2004) 1.2% -6.8% -7.2% -5.5%
Source: Arizona DPS, Research and Planning
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 55
Larceny-Theft
Number of Larceny-Theft Offenses: Statewide larceny-theft totals remained fairly constant over the last 10 years. However, reported offense numbers varied greatly across counties with nine recording increases and six recording declines. See Table 3-26. Table 3-26: Larceny-Theft Offenses by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 265 3,028 4,369 902 463 59 343 4,156 1,742 3,410 757 2,373 3,474 25,341 101,206 44,439 170,986 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 394 2,471 5,649 1,428 618 61 198 4,872 2,100 5,346 618 4,387 3,022 31,164 116,140 38,601 185,905 1991 261 3,017 4,128 994 468 63 161 4,047 2,017 3,569 725 2,546 3,558 25,554 95,040 37,797 158,391 1997 399 3,252 5,641 1,334 619 57 509 4,508 2,066 4,037 742 4,499 1,752 29,415 118,330 39,518 187,263 1992 315 2,649 4,366 1,042 451 43 369 4,028 1,699 4,315 867 2,544 532 23,220 92,345 38,300 153,865 1998 341 3,180 4,977 1,215 607 57 614 4,287 1,889 3,613 725 4,311 950 26,766 114,477 37,497 178,740 1993 343 2,749 4,779 1,041 482 60 490 4,151 1,834 4,363 1,092 3,056 786 25,226 98,412 43,209 166,847 1999 396 2,668 4,705 744 602 73 496 3,857 1,831 3,968 577 4,392 1,664 25,973 103,435 35,844 165,252 1994 575 2,348 5,539 1,260 491 84 302 4,972 1,809 4,908 882 4,360 1,110 28,640 107,261 49,136 185,037 1995 540 2,974 5,755 1,399 592 74 329 5,442 2,099 5,514 713 4,995 1,359 31,785 120,414 50,675 202,874
Percent Change (1990-1999) 49.4% -11.9% 7.7% -17.5% 30.0% 23.7% 44.6% -7.2% 5.1% 16.4% -23.8% 85.1% -52.1% 2.5% 2.2% -19.3% -3.4%
Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 56
Larceny-Theft Rates: While nine counties saw 10-year offense numbers rise, after population increases were considered, only four recorded increased larceny-theft rates. As shown in Table 3-27, Apache County usually had the lowest larceny-theft rate in the State. However, it must be remembered that Apache County population totals include residents of the Navajo Nation and that crimes reported to Native American law enforcement agencies are not reflected in Arizona UCR statistics. Table 3-27: Larceny-Theft Rates by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 430.2 3,086.6 4,508.8 2,238.2 1,734.1 737.5 2,467.6 4,356.4 2,242.0 2,919.5 2,531.8 2,187.1 3,213.7 2,873.5 4,750.6 6,647.6 4,645.3 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 611.1 2,150.1 4,978.2 3,152.3 1,983.9 705.2 1,087.9 3,815.2 2,491.1 3,708.6 1,763.2 3,259.3 2,418.6 2,976.7 4,408.2 4,944.1 4,166.1 1991 421.6 3,029.9 4,163.4 2,421.4 1,701.8 785.0 1,106.5 3,953.1 2,562.7 2,982.9 2,384.9 2,291.6 3,227.9 2,826.1 4,359.7 5,534.9 4,204.7 1997 608.7 2,717.9 4,801.9 2,811.4 1,900.2 642.3 2,887.9 3,375.5 2,315.5 2,684.6 2,041.3 3,166.6 1,355.3 2,698.5 4,349.4 5,004.5 4,070.7 1992 500.4 2,618.2 4,307.8 2,498.8 1,628.2 515.0 2,489.0 3,809.9 2,111.1 3,519.6 2,792.3 2,229.4 471.5 2,510.7 4,134.2 5,469.4 3,987.3 1998 513.9 2,569.7 4,092.1 2,470.8 1,749.3 624.7 3,231.6 3,092.5 2,042.2 2,291.4 1,918.0 2,903.0 702.7 2,360.3 4,079.6 4,551.2 3,751.9 1993 544.0 2,660.5 4,564.5 2,455.2 1,639.5 716.4 3,151.1 3,641.2 2,273.3 3,429.4 3,463.9 2,581.1 675.0 2,641.3 4,295.2 6,063.6 4,214.5 1999 591.5 2,141.7 3,830.7 1,483.5 1,683.9 791.3 2,576.6 2,698.6 1,960.4 2,399.0 1,475.7 2,817.2 1,191.6 2,229.3 3,550.2 4,238.0 3,355.8 1994 908.7 2,169.6 5,152.6 2,906.6 1,603.3 997.0 1,878.7 4,132.1 2,212.8 3,711.9 2,722.2 3,530.4 927.7 2,900.8 4,552.9 6,745.5 4,544.5 1995 847.1 2,655.4 5,196.4 3,142.1 1,970.0 868.0 1,970.1 4,348.4 2,532.7 3,966.9 2,080.2 3,833.5 1,114.2 3,116.6 4,761.9 6,680.3 4,710.2
Percent Change (1990-1999) 37.5% -30.6% -15.0% -33.7% -2.9% 7.3% 4.4% -38.1% -12.6% -17.8% -41.7% 28.8% -62.9% -22.4% -25.3% -36.2% -27.8%
Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 57
Figure 3-12 shows Arizona larceny-theft rates on the decline since 1995. Although Pima County witnessed an impressive 10-year decline, it still had the highest larceny-theft rate in the State. Figure 3-12
LARCENY-THEFT RATES
1990 -- 1999
7000 Rate Per 100,000 Population 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994 1995 Year
1996
Pima Co.
1997
1998
Arizona
1999
Rural Cos.
Maricopa Co.
Larceny-Theft Offense Projections: Projections suggest that statewide larceny-theft offense numbers may grow 4.3 percent in the next five years, as shown in Table 3-28. Pima County could buck that trend with a projected 5.4 percent drop in reported offenses. Table 3-28: Larceny-Theft Offenses Projected, 2000-2004 2000 Rural Counties Maricopa County Pima County Arizona 29,512 118,452 38,647 186,611 2001 29,913 120,588 38,128 188,628 2002 30,313 122,723 37,608 190,645 2003 30,714 124,859 37,089 192,662 2004 31,115 126,995 36,570 194,679 Percent Change (2000-2004) 5.4% 7.2% -5.4% 4.3%
Source: Arizona DPS, Research and Planning
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 58
Motor Vehicle Theft
Number of Motor Vehicle Theft Offenses: While Maricopa and Pima Counties contain approximately three-fourths of Arizona's population, 93.5 percent of reported motor vehicle offenses occurred in these two counties in 1999. Between 1990 and 1999, offense numbers rose in nine counties with a statewide increase of 20.1 percent. During the same period, reported vehicle thefts in Pima County doubled. See Table 3-29. Table 3-29: Motor Vehicle Theft Offenses by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 12 313 169 62 14 1 39 433 100 344 219 163 324 2,193 26,029 3,268 31,490 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 32 339 221 93 22 0 31 523 133 629 250 286 385 2,944 29,809 7,853 40,606 1991 15 418 197 74 26 3 27 493 109 300 214 199 307 2,382 25,309 4,428 32,119 1997 22 467 237 78 30 0 86 463 111 445 271 387 292 2,835 31,215 8,874 42,924 1992 19 423 178 59 21 3 39 385 113 492 236 141 61 2,170 22,952 5,727 30,849 1998 11 367 225 87 43 0 35 434 105 356 225 341 169 2,398 29,598 7,609 39,605 1993 16 368 208 81 29 3 76 490 97 434 295 265 62 2,424 24,534 6,416 33,374 1999 17 391 242 57 32 1 31 400 121 470 130 282 293 2,467 28,814 6,543 37,824 1994 23 264 209 70 33 2 48 560 99 511 237 329 102 2,487 32,147 7,286 41,920 1995 20 373 285 100 46 0 51 628 133 617 232 415 141 3,041 37,525 7,453 48,019
Percent Change (1990-1999) 41.7% 24.9% 43.2% -8.1% 128.6% 0.0% -20.5% -7.6% 21.0% 36.6% -40.6% 73.0% -9.6% 12.5% 10.7% 100.2% 20.1%
Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 59
Motor Vehicle Theft Rates: In the last decade, Arizona's motor vehicle theft rate fell 10.2 percent as shown in Table 3-30. In Maricopa County, the decline was twice as great but remained the highest rate in the State. In Pima County, the motor vehicle theft rate rose 58.2 percent over 10 years giving that county the second highest rate in the State in 1999. Table 3-30: Motor Vehicle Rates by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 19.5 319.1 174.4 153.8 52.4 12.5 280.6 453.9 128.7 294.5 732.4 150.2 299.7 248.7 1,221.8 488.9 855.5 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 49.6 295.0 194.8 205.3 70.6 0.0 170.3 409.6 157.8 436.4 713.3 212.5 308.1 281.2 1,131.4 1,005.8 910.0 1991 24.2 419.8 198.7 180.3 94.5 37.4 185.6 481.6 138.5 250.7 703.9 179.1 278.5 263.4 1,161.0 648.4 852.6 1997 33.6 390.3 201.7 164.4 92.1 0.0 487.9 346.7 124.4 295.9 597.0 272.4 225.9 260.1 1,147.4 1,123.8 933.1 1992 30.2 418.1 175.6 141.5 75.8 35.9 263.1 364.2 140.4 401.3 760.1 123.6 54.1 234.6 1,027.5 817.8 799.4 1998 16.6 296.6 185.0 176.9 123.9 0.0 184.2 313.1 113.5 225.8 595.2 229.6 125.0 211.5 1,054.8 923.5 831.3 1993 25.4 356.2 198.7 191.0 98.6 35.8 488.7 429.8 120.2 341.1 935.8 223.8 53.2 253.8 1,070.8 900.4 843.0 1999 25.4 313.9 197.0 113.7 89.5 10.8 161.0 279.9 129.6 284.2 332.5 180.9 209.8 211.7 989.0 773.6 768.1 1994 36.3 243.9 194.4 161.5 107.8 23.7 298.6 465.4 121.1 386.5 731.5 266.4 85.2 251.9 1,364.5 1,000.2 1,029.6 1995 31.4 333.0 257.3 224.6 153.1 0.0 305.4 501.8 160.5 443.9 676.9 318.5 115.6 298.2 1,484.0 982.5 1,114.9
Percent Change (1990-1999) 30.3% -1.6% 13.0% -26.1% 70.7% -13.3% -42.6% -38.3% 0.7% -3.5% -54.6% 20.4% -30.0% -14.8% -19.1% 58.2% -10.2%
Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 60
Figure 3-13 compares the motor vehicle theft rates of Maricopa and Pima Counties, aggregated rural counties and the State for the years 1990 through 1999. As shown below, motor vehicle theft rates are substantially lower in the rural counties. Figure 3-13
MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT RATES
1990 -- 1999
1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year 1996 1997 1998 1999
Rate Per 100,000 Population
Rural Cos.
Maricopa Co.
Pima Co.
Arizona
Motor Vehicle Theft Offense Projections: As shown in Table 3-31, motor vehicle theft offenses reported statewide may increase 10.8 percent by 2004 . Pima County could see the largest increase (19.5 percent) while rural counties might see the smallest growth (6.9 percent). Table 3-31: Motor Vehicle Theft Offenses Projected, 2000-2004 2000 Rural Counties Maricopa County Pima County Arizona 2,801 32,713 8,944 44,459 2001 2,850 33,426 9,380 45,656 2002 2,899 34,139 9,816 46,854 2003 2,947 34,852 10,252 48,051 2004 2,996 35,564 10,689 49,249 Percent Change (2000-2004) 6.9% 8.7% 19.5% 10.8%
Source: Arizona DPS, Research and Planning
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 61
Arson
Number of Arson Offenses: In 1999, 1,272 arson offenses were reported, reflecting a 19.6 percent drop since 1990. Maricopa County reported a 39.4 percent reduction in comparison to 1990 figures. Five counties experienced increases in reported arson crimes, including Pima County with a 19.2 percent jump in numbers. See Table 3-32. Table 3-32: Arson Offenses by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 1 34 16 6 1 0 8 37 16 62 4 33 37 255 963 365 1,583 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 0 12 40 10 5 0 1 71 26 32 8 41 21 267 730 376 1,373 1991 2 28 29 15 1 0 6 33 11 52 8 35 25 245 932 295 1,472 1997 0 9 69 7 1 0 5 53 15 40 2 44 13 258 670 374 1,302 1992 1 15 14 10 1 0 9 30 21 56 4 17 4 182 708 322 1,212 1998 3 19 28 8 4 0 2 43 32 18 3 47 2 209 673 367 1,249 1993 0 28 14 10 1 0 5 52 17 41 5 30 1 204 673 288 1,165 1999 2 13 41 3 1 0 6 35 41 47 3 48 13 253 584 435 1,272 1994 3 29 19 7 0 0 8 67 25 46 9 55 5 273 793 259 1,325 1995 4 25 37 12 3 0 6 76 12 54 8 45 4 286 799 447 1,532
Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999
Percent Change (1990-1999) 100.0% -61.8% 156.3% -50.0% 0.0% 0.0% -25.0% -5.4% 156.3% -24.2% -25.0% 45.5% -64.9% -0.8% -39.4% 19.2% -19.6%
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 62
Arson Rates: From 1990 to 1999, Arizona experienced an overall 39.9 percent decrease in the arson rate. However, rates vary widely by county as shown in Table 3-33. At 51.4 arson crimes per 100,000 population, Pima County had the highest rate in 1999. Table 3-33: Arson Rates by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 1.6 34.7 16.5 14.9 3.7 0.0 57.6 38.8 20.6 53.1 13.4 30.4 34.2 28.9 45.2 54.6 43.0 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 0.0 10.4 35.3 22.1 16.1 0.0 5.5 55.6 30.8 22.2 22.8 30.5 16.8 25.5 27.7 48.2 30.8 1991 3.2 28.1 29.2 36.5 3.6 0.0 41.2 32.2 14.0 43.5 26.3 31.5 22.7 27.1 42.8 43.2 39.1 1997 0.0 7.5 58.7 14.8 3.1 0.0 28.4 39.7 16.8 26.6 5.5 31.0 10.1 23.7 24.6 47.4 28.3 1992 1.6 14.8 13.8 24.0 3.6 0.0 60.7 28.4 26.1 45.7 12.9 14.9 3.5 19.7 31.7 46.0 31.4 1998 4.5 15.4 23.0 16.3 11.5 0.0 10.5 31.0 34.6 11.4 7.9 31.6 1.5 18.4 24.0 44.5 26.2 1993 0.0 27.1 13.4 23.6 3.4 0.0 32.2 45.6 22.1 32.2 15.9 25.3 0.9 21.4 29.4 40.4 29.4 1999 3.0 10.4 33.4 6.0 2.8 0.0 31.2 24.5 43.9 28.4 7.7 30.8 9.3 21.7 20.0 51.4 25.8 1994 4.7 26.8 17.7 16.1 0.0 0.0 49.8 55.7 30.6 34.8 27.8 44.5 4.2 27.7 33.7 35.6 32.5 1995 6.3 22.3 33.4 27.0 10.0 0.0 35.9 60.7 14.5 38.8 23.3 34.5 3.3 28.0 31.6 58.9 35.6
Percent Change (1990-1999) 84.0% -69.9% 102.2% -59.8% -25.3% 0.0% -45.8% -36.9% 113.2% -46.5% -42.6% 1.2% -72.8% -24.9% -55.7% -5.8% -39.9%
Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 63
Figure 3-14 shows that Arizona arson rates did not follow an established pattern over the last 10-year span. However, Maricopa and Pima Counties, the State and aggregated rural counties all ended the decade with rates 55.7 to 5.8 percent lower than in 1990. Figure 3-14
ARSON RATES
1990 -- 1999
60
Rate Per 100,000 Population
50
40
30
20
10
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994 1995 Year
1996
1997
1998
1999
Rural Cos.
Maricopa Co.
Pima Co.
Arizona
Arson Offense Projections: While county fluctuations may vary widely, the number of arson crimes reported in Arizona is projected to decrease 6 percent by 2004. Maricopa County might realize a 22 percent reduction in five years, but Pima County projections indicate a possible 10.8 percent rise in arson offenses. Table 3-34: Arson Offenses Projected, 2000-2004 2000 Rural Counties Maricopa County Pima County Arizona 254 578 414 1,246 2001 255 546 426 1,227 2002 257 514 437 1,209 2003 259 483 448 1,190 2004 261 451 459 1,171 Percent Change (2000-2004) 3.0% -22.0% 10.8% -6.0%
Source: Arizona DPS, Research and Planning
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 64
Adult and Juvenile Arrests
Table 3-35, (continued on page 66) shows Arizona arrests for Part I and Part II offenses from 1990 to 1999. Most juvenile arrests for Part I offenses in 1999 were for property crimes. Juveniles were the offenders in 62.2 percent of arson arrests, 39.7 percent of burglary arrests, 32.6 percent of motor vehicle arrests and 29.1 percent of larceny-theft arrests. For 1999 Part I violent crimes, juveniles accounted for 10.7 percent of murder arrests, 17.9 percent of rape arrests, 21.4 percent of all robbery arrests, and 22 percent of aggravated assault arrests. Table 3-35: Adult and Juvenile Arrests, 1990-1999 Adult Arrests Part One Offenses Murder Rape Robbery Assault Burglary Larceny-Theft Motor Vehicle Theft Arson Part I Offenses Subtotal Part II Offenses Total Adult Arrests Juvenile Arrests Part 1 Offenses Murder Rape Robbery Assault Burglary Larceny-Theft Motor Vehicle Theft Arson Part I Offenses Subtotal Part II Offenses Total Juvenile Arrests Total Combined Arrests 1990 187 306 1,228 6,087 4,452 27,565 1,123 134 41,082 154,173 195,255 1991 218 347 1,233 6,140 4,489 25,443 1,203 172 39,245 160,330 199,575 1992 187 285 1,134 5,800 4,038 23,208 1,433 129 36,214 157,720 193,934 1993 214 258 1,088 6,012 3,877 23,745 1,466 133 36,793 157,595 194,388 1994 260 212 1,084 5,774 3,592 24,927 1,810 128 37,787 169,552 207,339 1995 264 225 1,112 5,992 3,604 29,078 2,041 136 42,452 190,303 232,755
19 68 437 1,404 3,656 12,995 1,530 289 20,398 32,698 53,096 248,351
31 78 490 1,524 4,007 12,982 1,882 201 21,195 33,572 54,767 254,342
45 68 473 1,636 3,602 11,329 2,028 210 19,391 33,700 53,091 247,025
46 39 495 1,694 3,326 11,348 1,792 235 18,975 42,074 61,049 255,437
69 34 435 1,734 2,899 11,354 1,608 302 18,435 46,212 64,647 271,986
43 41 553 1,725 2,571 12,155 1,782 327 19,197 49,545 68,742 301,497
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 65
Table 3-35: Adult and Juvenile Arrests, 1990-1999 (continued) 1996 Adult Arrests Part One Offenses Murder Rape Robbery Assault Burglary Larceny-Theft Motor Vehicle Theft Arson Part I Offenses Subtotal Part II Offenses Total Adult Arrests Juvenile Arrests Part 1 Offenses Murder Rape Robbery Assault Burglary Larceny-Theft Motor Vehicle Theft Arson Part I Offenses Subtotal Part II Offenses Total Juvenile Arrests Total Combined Arrests 1997 1998 1999 Percent Change (1990-1999) 16.6% -52.0% -10.7% -19.8% -35.7% -15.1% 107.8% -21.6% -14.7% 22.6% 14.7%
214 228 1,173 5,738 3,383 28,241 1,598 137 40,712 201,376 242,088
210 243 240 184 1,233 1,162 5,651 5,205 3,376 3,395 26,828 26,290 1,852 1,936 136 144 39,526 38,559 194,077 195,684 233,603 234,243
218 147 1,096 4,879 2,861 23,390 2,334 105 35,030 188,949 223,979
46 38 486 1,669 2,962 12,544 1,599 280 19,624 53,422 73,046 315,134
32 59 456 1,628 2,770 11,947 1,537 213 18,642 50,851 69,493
31 34 406 1,469 2,313 10,514 1,199 181 16,147 48,272 64,419
26 32 299 1,372 1,887 9,596 1,130 173 14,515 44,173 58,688 282,667
36.8% -52.9% -31.6% -2.3% -48.4% -26.2% -26.1% -40.1% -28.8% 35.1% 10.5% 13.8%
303,096 298,662
Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 66
Table 3-36 shows that in 1999, juvenile offenders accounted for about one-third of Part I offense arrests and 20.8 percent of all arrests (combined Part I and Part II offenses). Table 3-36: Arrest Distribution by Age, 1990-1999 All Arrests Percent Juvenile Arrests Percent Adult Arrests Part I Arrests Percent Juvenile Percent Adult 1990 21.4% 78.6% 33.2% 66.8% 1996 All Arrests Percent Juvenile Arrests Percent Adult Arrests Part I Arrests Percent Juvenile Percent Adult 23.2% 76.8% 32.5% 67.5% 1991 21.5% 78.5% 35.1% 64.9% 1997 22.9% 77.1% 32.0% 68.0% 1992 21.5% 78.5% 34.9% 65.1% 1998 21.6% 78.4% 29.5% 70.5% 1993 23.9% 76.1% 34.0% 66.0% 1999 20.8% 79.2% 29.3% 70.7% 1994 23.8% 76.2% 32.8% 67.2% 1995 22.8% 77.2% 31.1% 68.9%
Percent Change (1990-1999) -2.9% 0.8% -11.7% 5.8%
Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999
Figure 3-15 provides a visual interpretation of juvenile arrests in proportion to adult arrests in Arizona. It also shows that the overall number of arrests has declined since 1996. Figure 3-15
ARIZONA ARRESTS
1990 - 1999
301,497
350
315,134 303,096
300 250
248,351
21.4%
298,662
271,986 254,342
21.5%
282,667
20.8%
247,025
255,437
23.8%
23.2% 22.8% 22.9% 21.6%
Thousands
200 150 100 50
21.5%
23.9%
78.6%
78.5%
78.5%
76.1%
76.2%
77.2%
76.8%
77.1%
78.4%
79.2%
1990
1991
1992
1993
Adult Arrests
1994 1995 Year
1996
1997
1998
1999
Juvenile Arrests
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 67
Section Four: Conclusion
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Arizona was the second fastest growing state in the nation in 1999, experiencing a 30.4 percent increase in population over the last 10 years. With this explosive growth, a rise in crime could be expected. Yet an analysis of Crime in the United States data showed crime rates falling in Arizona for the Crime Index offenses of rape (-29.3 percent), robbery (-5.2 percent), aggravated assault (-18.3 percent), burglary (-38.1 percent), larceny-theft (-25.4 percent) and motor vehicle theft (-7.3 percent). From 1990 to 1999, only Arizona's murder rate rose (+ 3.9 percent). However, when compared nationally, the State's declining crime rates were less impressive. With the exception of rape, burglary and larceny-theft rates, nationwide 10-year drops in crime rates exceeded those reported in Arizona. In 1999 rankings of all the states and the District of Columbia, Arizona had the third highest property crime rate, the sixth highest burglary rate, the fourth highest larceny-theft rate and the second highest vehicle theft rate in the nation. Arizona rates for murder, burglary, and larceny theft were at least 30 percent higher than the 1999 national rate, while vehicle theft rates soared 90.3 percent higher. Examining statistics at the county level provided additional insight into Arizona crime. Crime in Arizona data illustrated the impact on crime rates of the State's two most heavily populated counties. For example, while Maricopa and Pima Counties made up 76.3 percent of the State's population in 1999, they accounted for 85.6 percent of the total volume of Crime Index offenses reported, 89.6 percent of the murders and 93.5 percent of reported vehicle thefts. Outside the urban areas, trends were harder to generalize because county by county fluctuations did not follow a prescribed pattern. In this report, offense numbers and rates for rural counties were aggregated to illustrate rural trends. But variations between counties were often great. For instance, the violent crime rate for aggregated rural counties fell 10.6 percent over the decade, but it increased 52.9 percent in Cochise County, 38 percent in Apache County and 20 percent in Navajo County. Correspondingly, the fluctuations in the actual number of Crime Index offenses reported over the last 10 years provided a basis for projecting what Arizona crime may look like in the future. Five-year projections suggested statewide totals for the following offenses could increase: murder (+ 11.1 percent), robbery (+ 10.3 percent), aggravated assault (+ 1.3 percent), larceny-theft (+ 4.3 percent) and vehicle theft (+ 10.8 percent). Similarly, reported statewide totals for the following offenses may decline: rape (- 6.1 percent), burglary (- 5.5 percent) and arson (- 6 percent). This report also briefly looked at a 10-year history of adult and juvenile arrests in Arizona. Over that time span, the percentage of juvenile arrests in proportion to adult arrests remained fairly constant, ranging from a low of 20.8 percent of all arrests in 1999 to a high of 23.9 percent of all arrests in 1993. Although youth concentration is a factor known to affect crime, no attempt was made to relate it to the trend data presented in this report.
Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 69
Object Description
| Rating | |
| TITLE | Crime trends in Arizona |
| CREATOR | Arizona. Dept. of Public Safety. Research and Planning. |
| SUBJECT | Criminal statistics--Arizona--Periodicals; |
| Browse Topic |
Crime and violence |
| DESCRIPTION | This title contains one or more publications. |
| Language | English |
| Contributor | Arizona Criminal Justice Commission. |
| Publisher | Arizona Criminal Justice Commission. |
| Material Collection |
Annual Reports State Documents |
| Source Identifier | PS 2.3:C 64 |
| Location | 43723535 |
| REPOSITORY | Arizona State Library, Archives and Public Records--Law and Research Library Division. |
Description
| TITLE | Crime trends in Arizona: 1990 through 1999 and beyond |
| DESCRIPTION | 75 pages (PDF version). File size: 419.003 KB. April 2001. A joint publication of the Arizona Department of Public Safety Research and Planning and Arizona Criminal Justice Commission Statistical Analysis Center. |
| TYPE | Text |
| Acquisition Note | http://azcjc.gov/publications/publications.asp |
| RIGHTS MANAGEMENT | Copyright to this resource is held by the creating agency and is provided here for educational purposes only. It may not be downloaded, reproduced or distributed in any format without written permission of the creating agency. Any attempt to circumvent the access controls placed on this file is a violation of United States and international copyright laws, and is subject to criminal prosecution. |
| DATE ORIGINAL | 2001-04 |
| Time Period | 2000s (2000-2009) |
| ORIGINAL FORMAT | Born Digital |
| Source Identifier | PS 2.3:C 64/1990-1999 |
| DIGITAL IDENTIFIER | 041801_CrimeTrendsReport.pdf |
| DIGITAL FORMAT | PDF (Portable Document Format) |
| REPOSITORY | Arizona State Library, Archives and Public Records--Law and Research Library Division. |
| File Size | 419.003 KB |
| Full Text | CRIME TRENDS IN ARIZONA: 1990 THROUGH 1999 AND BEYOND APRIL 2001 A JOINT PUBLICATION OF THE ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY RESEARCH AND PLANNING AND ARIZONA CRIMINAL JUSTICE COMMISSION STATISTICAL ANALYSIS CENTER ARIZONA CRIMINAL JUSTICE COMMISSION Chairperson TERRY L. STEWART, Director Arizona Department of Corrections JOSEPH ARPAIO Maricopa County Sheriff DAVID K. BYERS, Director Administrative Office of the Courts TONY ESTRADA Santa Cruz County Sheriff BARBARA LAWALL Pima County Attorney JANET NAPOLITANO Arizona Attorney General CHRISTOPHER SKELLY Judge, Retired JIM BOLES, Mayor City of Winslow DAVID DOBROTKA, Chief Glendale Police Department BILL FITZGERALD Chief Adult Probation Officer Yavapai County Adult Probation RICHARD MIRANDA, Chief Tucson Police Department ROBERT CARTER OLSON Pinal County Attorney Co-Chairperson RALPH OGDEN Yuma County Sheriff EDITH RICHARDSON, Chairperson Board of Executive Clemency CLARENCE DUPNIK Pima County Sheriff DENNIS GARRETT, Director Arizona Department of Public Safety J.T. McCANN, Chief Flagstaff Police Department RICHARD M. ROMLEY Maricopa County Attorney LEWIS TENNEY Navajo County Board Of Supervisors Executive Director MICHAEL D. BRANHAM Statistical Analysis Center Director MICHELLE C. WATKINS Research and Statistical Analyst JACKIE R. MINERO CRIME TRENDS IN ARIZONA: 1990 THROUGH 1999 AND BEYOND APRIL 2001 A JOINT PUBLICATION OF THE ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY RESEARCH AND PLANNING AND ARIZONA CRIMINAL JUSTICE COMMISSION STATISTICAL ANALYSIS CENTER ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY COLONEL DENNIS A. GARRETT, DIRECTOR ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF P UBLIC SAFETY MR. RODNEY D. COVEY, ASSISTANT DIRECTOR AGENCY SUPPORT DIVISION COMMANDER DON L. MILLER, BUREAU COMMANDER MANAGEMENT S ERVICES B UREAU LIEUTENANT JOHN W. WILSON, COMMANDER ANALYSIS AND INSPECTIONS MR. J. W. "PETE" PETERSON, MANAGER R ESEARCH AND PLANNING MS. LAVADA CHARBONNEAU, ANALYST R ESEARCH AND PLANNING Table of Contents Preface............................................................................................................................................ 1 Section One: Highlights of Arizona Population and Crime Trends for 1999.................................. 3 Section Two: How Arizona Compares Nationally........................................................................... 5 POPULATION GROWTH .................................................................................................................. 5 ARIZONA'S CRIME INDEX............................................................................................................... 7 VIOLENT CRIME RATES ................................................................................................................. 9 Murder Rates ........................................................................................................................ 11 Rape Rates ........................................................................................................................... 13 Robbery Rates ...................................................................................................................... 15 Aggravated Assault Rates .................................................................................................... 17 PROPERTY CRIME RATES............................................................................................................ 19 Burglary Rates ...................................................................................................................... 21 Larceny-Theft Rates ............................................................................................................. 23 Motor Vehicle Theft Rates .................................................................................................... 25 Section Three: A Closer Look at Arizona Crime .......................................................................... 27 CRIME INDEX OFFENSES AND RATES BY COUNTY 1990-1999 ..................................................... 29 Violent Crime......................................................................................................................... 33 Murder ............................................................................................................................... 37 Rape .................................................................................................................................. 40 Robbery............................................................................................................................. 43 Aggravated Assault........................................................................................................... 46 Property Crime...................................................................................................................... 49 Burglary ............................................................................................................................. 53 Larceny-Theft .................................................................................................................... 56 Motor Vehicle Theft ........................................................................................................... 59 Arson ................................................................................................................................. 62 Adult and Juvenile Arrests .................................................................................................... 65 Section Four: Conclusion.............................................................................................................. 69 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Preface Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990 Through 1999 and Beyond, presents a series of data sets for major crimes in Arizona. The data were compiled from information reported to police and collected through the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program by the Arizona Department of Public Safety (DPS) for submission to the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). This report is organized into four sections. Section One provides a brief summary of Arizona population and crime trends for 1999, the latest year for which UCR data are available. Section Two presents a comparative 10-year look at reported crime in Arizona based upon FBI-adjusted data 1 and portrays Arizona's comparative rankings among the states and District of Columbia. Section Three takes a closer look at Arizona crime by county based upon unadjusted 2 UCR figures, and gives five-year projections for the State, Maricopa and Pima Counties, and aggregated rural counties. Section Four recaps the data presented. A significant indicator and common expression of crime is the Crime Index which is composed of selected offenses used to gauge fluctuations in the overall volume and rate of crime reported to law enforcement. The offenses included are the violent crimes of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery and aggravated assault, and the property crimes of burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson. While the Crime Index total is a common measure used in many comparisons, it fails to consider other factors which are known to affect the volume and type of crime occurring such as population density and urbanization. Therefore, a crime rate reflecting the number of crimes per unit of population (per every 100,000 persons) is a better expression. For that reason, Rate is frequently used to make comparisons among population groups in this report. Population size is the only correlate of crime used in this report. Crime in the United States publications list many other factors known to impact crime including, in part, composition of the population, particularly youth concentration; stability of the population; economic conditions; cultural factors; family cohesiveness; and law enforcement strength and effectiveness. While those and other factors are critical in understanding the causes and origins of crime, no attempt is made to relate them to the data presented. By way of illustration, several categories of Arizona crime experienced sharp rate increases in the mid-1990s that were not matched on the national level. A valid assessment of why this occurred is possible only with careful study and analysis of the various unique conditions affecting each local law enforcement jurisdiction and that is beyond the scope of this report. In addition, generalizations based solely on the data need to consider inherent UCR Program limitations. These limitations include the fact that until passage of Arizona state legislation in 1992 (ARS 41-1750), participation by law enforcement agencies in UCR data collection was voluntary. Moreover, the UCR Program accounts for only reported crimes. In that regard, the National Crime Victimization Survey one of the largest ongoing household surveys administered by the federal government estimates that only 36.3 percent of all crimes in 1999 were reported to police3. Also, where several crimes occur in a single event, only the most serious is reported for UCR purposes. For example, report of a murder can cause a 1 2 The FBI adjusts statistics upward (overestimates) in an effort to account for missing reports. Unlike in Section Two, the data in Section Three includes only the information reported to the AZ DPS, and data are not adjusted to account for missing reports. 3 United States Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics (2000). Criminal Victimization 1999: Changes 1998-99 with Trends 1993-99. Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 1 concurrent robbery to go uncounted. In Arizona, crimes reported to Native American law enforcement agencies are also not reflected in UCR statistics. Because of these and other limitations, the number of UCR offenses reported will always be less than what is actually occurring; therefore, this portrayal of crime trend data for Arizona is by no means totally comprehensive or complete. Questions regarding this report may be directed to: Arizona Criminal Justice Commission Statistical Analysis Center 3737 North 7t h Street, Suite 260 Phoenix, Arizona 85014 Phone: (602) 230-0252 Toll free number: 1-877-668-2252 Fax: (602) 728-0752 www.acjc.state.az.us Arizona Department of Public Safety Research and Planning, Mail Drop 1230 P.O. Box 6638 Phoenix, Arizona 85005-6638 Phone: (602) 223-2082 Fax: (602) 223-2932 E-mail: planning@dps.state.az.us Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 2 Section One: Highlights of Arizona Population and Crime Trends for 1999 The following are highlights of Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990 Through 1999 and Beyond. Data comparing Arizona trends with the rest of the nation are from Crime in the United States (1999) while county comparisons and arrest data are from Crime in Arizona (1999). Population: In the past decade, Arizona grew three times as fast as the rest of the nation, becoming home to more than 4.7 million people. The State's 1999 population of 4,778,000 people was 1.1 million more than what it was in 1990. Crime Index: Arizona's 1999 overall Crime Index rate fell 10.3 percent from the 1998 rate and 25.3 percent from the 1990 rate. In comparison, the national rate declined 7.6 percent last year and 26.7 percent over the last 10 years. In 1999 rankings of all the states and the District of Columbia, Arizona had the fourth highest reported Crime Index rate, behind the District of Columbia, Florida and New Mexico. Violent Crime: Arizona experienced a 4.6 percent decline in violent crime rates between 1998 and 1999, while nationally the violent crime rate declined by 7.5 percent. All areas of violent crime in Arizona fell, led by a 7.7 percent decline in the robbery rate and a 6.9 percent drop in the rape rate. Compared to other states and the District of Columbia, Arizona ranked sixteenth in terms of violent crime rates. Murder: Arizona experienced almost no decrease in the murder rate between 1998 and 1999 while the nation's murder rate decreased by 9.3 percent. In 1999, Arizona had the seventh highest murder rate in the nation, behind the District of Columbia, Louisiana, New Mexico, Nevada, Maryland and Alaska. Aggravated Assault: Arizona's aggravated assault rate ranked sixteenth in the nation in 1999. The State experienced a 3.2 percent decline in aggravated assault between 1998 and 1999, a slower drop than the national decline of 7 percent. Property Crime: The State's property crime rate dropped 10.9 percent between 1998 and 1999, while the national rate fell 7.6 percent during this time. Although the property crime rate has declined 26.1 percent since 1990, Arizona ranked third among all the states and the District of Columbia with a rate 42.8 percent above the national rate. Only the District of Columbia and Florida had higher property crime rates in 1999. Motor Vehicle Theft: In 1999, Arizona's highest area of property crime was a motor vehicle theft rate 90.3 percent greater than the national rate. In spite of a 7.3 percent rate decline over the last 10 years and a 7.5 percent drop from 1998 to 1999, Arizona had the second highest rate of motor vehicle theft in the nation, behind the District of Columbia. Burglary and Larceny-Theft: Other components of Arizona's property crime rate also saw declines in 1999. Between 1998 and 1999, the burglary rate dropped 14.5 percent and larceny-theft rate fell 10.5 percent. Comparatively, the national reported reductions in burglary and larceny-theft rates between 1998 and 1999 were 10.8 percent and 6.5 percent. Arizona ranked sixth and fourth, respectively, when compared in those areas against the other states and the District of Columbia. Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 3 Arrests by Age: The total number of arrests by Arizona law enforcement agencies for all criminal infractions, excluding traffic violations, decreased 5.4 percent from 298,662 arrests in 1998 to 282,667 arrests in 1999. This decline was comparable to the 5 percent decline reported nationally. In Arizona, juveniles accounted for 20.8 percent of all arrests and 21.4 percent of violent crime arrests. Projections: Over the next five years, Crime Index offenses reported to police statewide are projected to increase by 3.5 percent. Rural counties may face a 4.6 percent boost in reported property crimes and a 12.7 percent drop in murders. In contrast, metropolitan counties may outpace rural counties with projected increases in murder offenses and motor vehicle thefts but could witness a greater drop in burglary crimes. Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 4 Section Two: How Arizona Compares Nationally Section Two, How Arizona Compares Nationally, presents a comparative 10-year look at population growth and reported crime in Arizona based upon UCR data for Index crimes as published in annual Crime in the United States reports. The FBI statistically adjusts data upward, when necessary, to account for missing UCR reports. This adjusted estimate for 100 percent reporting allows comparisons of rates (per 100,000 of population) as if all jurisdictions had fully reported. Section Two also reflects Arizona's comparative rankings among the states and District of Columbia. Unless otherwise stated, only crime rates at the national and state levels are discussed rather than the actual number of reported offenses. Population Growth At 30.4 percent total growth between 1990 and 1999, Arizona's population grew more than three times faster than the rest of the nation (9.6 percent). Arizona's increase of 1,112,772 people over the decade is equivalent to the population of the state of Hawaii moving to Arizona. Figure 2-1 and Table 2-1 show the population growth in Arizona compared to national growth. Figure 2-1 POPULATION GROWTH 1990 - 1999 4800 4600 275 270 265 4200 260 4000 3800 3600 3400 255 250 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 245 1999 Arizona National Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 5 National Population (Millions) Arizona Population (Thousands) 4400 Table 2-1: Arizona and National Population Growth, 1990-1999 1990 Arizona Population National Population 3,665,228 248,709,873 1991 3,750,000 252,177,000 1992 3,832,000 255,082,000 1993 3,936,000 257,908,000 1994 4,075,000 260,341,000 1995 4,218,000 262,755,000 1996 Arizona Population National Population 4,428,000 265,284,000 1997 4,555,000 267,637,000 1998 4,669,000 270,296,000 1999 4,778,000 272,691,000 Percent Change (1990-1999) 30.4% 9.6% Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1990-1999 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 6 Arizona's Crime Index By definition, four major violent crimes (murder, rape, robbery and aggravated assault) and four major property crimes (burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft and arson4) comprise the Crime Index. In 1999, violent crimes accounted for 9.3 percent of Arizona's Crime Index offenses, and property crimes made up 90.7 percent. Nationally, violent crimes totaled 12 percent of Crime Index offenses and property crimes comprised 88 percent. When making comparisons among population groups, a Crime Index rate per 100,000 population presents a better picture of fluctuations in occurring crime. Table 2-2 shows that when compared against the 1999 Crime Index rates of other states and the District of Columbia, Arizona ranked fourth, a 10.3 percent decline from the 1998 rate. Arizona's 1999 overall Crime Index rate was the lowest recorded since 1969, but remained 38.2 percent higher than the national Crime Index rate. Table 2-2: Crime Index Rate per 100,000 Population, 1999 Top 10 Rankings of States and District of Columbia Compared with 1998 (in parentheses) Rank State (1998 Rank) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. District of Columbia (1) Florida (2) New Mexico (3) Arizona (4) Louisiana (5) South Carolina (7) Washington (6) North Carolina (14) Georgia (10) Texas (16) United States 1999 Rate 8,067.1 6,205.5 5,962.1 5,896.5 5,746.8 5,324.4 5,255.5 5,175.4 5,148.5 5,031.8 4,266.8 1998 Rate (8,835.6) (6,886.0) (6,719.1) (6,575.0) (6,098.3) (5,777.0) (5,867.4) (5,322.2) (5,463.0) (5,111.6) (4,619.3) Percent Change (1998-1999) -8.7% -9.9% -11.3% -10.3% -5.8% -7.8% -10.4% -2.8% -5.8% -1.6% -7.6% Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1998-1999 4 Only 8,061 agencies, representing 68 percent of the United States population, submitted complete arson reports in 1999. Although the Crime in the United States report provides a separate analysis of arson data, those offenses are excluded from Index and property crime totals because sufficient data are not available to estimate national and state-level totals for arson offenses. Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 7 Figure 2-2 CRIME INDEX RATES 1990 - 1999 8500 8000 Rate Per 100,000 Population 7500 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year Arizona 1996 1997 1998 1999 National Figure 2-2 shows that the national Crime Index rate steadily declined over the last 10 years while Arizona's Crime Index rate rose in the mid-1990s before falling in the last half of the decade. Table 2-3 shows that by the end of the decade, the Arizona Crime Index rate fell 25.3 percent which is very close to the national Crime Index rate drop of 26.7 percent during this same period. Table 2-3: Arizona and National Crime Rates, 1990-1999 Arizona Crime Index Rate National Crime Index Rate 1990 7,888.7 5,820.3 1996 Arizona Crime Index Rate National Crime Index Rate 7,067.0 5,086.6 1991 7,405.6 5,897.8 1997 7,195.0 4,930.0 1992 7,028.6 5,660.2 1998 6,575.0 4,619.3 1993 7,431.7 5,484.4 1999 5,896.5 4,266.8 1994 7,924.6 5,373.5 1995 8,213.6 5,275.9 Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1990-1999 Percent Change (1990-1999) -25.3% -26.7% Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 8 Violent Crime Rates Violent crime is composed of four offenses: murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery and aggravated assault. Table 2-4, which ranks the states with the 10 highest violent crime rates in 1999, shows that Arizona ranked sixteenth when compared to other states and the District of Columbia. In 1999, aggravated assault accounted for 65.6 percent of Arizona's reported violent crimes, robberies comprised 27.7 percent, and rapes contributed 5.3 percent. Murders represented the least frequent violent crime, accounting for 1.5 percent. While Arizona experienced a 4.6 percent decrease in the violent crime rate between 1998 and 1999, its 1999 violent crime rate was 5.1 percent higher than the national rate. Table 2-4: Violent Crime Rate per 100,000 Population, 1999 Top 10 Rankings of States and District of Columbia Compared with 1998 (in parentheses) With Arizona Rank Shown Rank 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 16. State (1998 Rank) District of Columbia (1) Florida (3) South Carolina (4) New Mexico (2) Maryland (6) Delaware (8) Louisiana (7) Illinois (5) Tennessee (9) Alaska (11) Arizona (17) United States 1999 Rate 1,627.7 854.0 847.1 834.5 743.4 734.0 732.7 732.5 694.9 631.5 551.2 524.7 1998 Rate (1,718.5) (938.7) (903.2) (961.4) (796.6) (762.4) (779.5) (807.7) (715.0) (653.9) (577.9) (567.5) Percent Change (1998-1999) -5.3% -9.0% -6.2% -13.2% -6.7% -3.7% -6.0% -9.3% -2.8% -3.4% -4.6% -7.5% Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1998-1999 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 9 Figure 2-3 VIOLENT CRIME RATES 1990 - 1999 800 Rate Per 100,000 Population 750 700 650 600 550 500 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year Arizona 1996 1997 1998 1999 National Figure 2-3 shows that while Arizona began the decade with a violent crime rate lower than the national rate, by the end of the decade its rate was slightly higher. Over the last 10 years, the drop in the State's violent crime rate was about half that of the national violent crime rate decline. See Table 2-5 Table 2-5: Arizona and National Violent Crime Rates, 1990-1999 Arizona Violent Crime Rate National Violent Crime Rate 1990 652.4 731.8 1996 Arizona Violent Crime Rate National Violent Crime Rate 631.5 636.5 1991 670.7 758.1 1997 623.7 611.3 1992 670.8 757.5 1998 577.9 567.5 1993 715.0 746.8 1999 551.2 524.7 1994 703.1 713.6 1995 713.5 684.6 Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1990-1999 Percent Change (1990-1999) -15.5% -28.3% Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 10 Murder Rates Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, as defined in the UCR Program, is the willful killing of one human being by another. In comparison to other states and the District of Columbia (as shown in Table 2-6), Arizona ranked seventh with a 1999 rate of eight murders per 100,000 population. The murder rate in Arizona remained fairly constant between 1998 and 1999, while the national rate fell 9.3 percent during this time. In 1999, Arizona's murder rate was 40.4 percent higher than the national rate. Table 2-6: Murder Rate per 100,000 Population, 1999 Top 10 Rankings of States and District of Columbia Compared with 1998 (in parentheses) Rank 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Tie 9. Tie State (1998 Rank) District of Columbia (1) Louisiana (2) New Mexico (4) Nevada (6) Maryland (5) Alaska (19) Arizona (tie 9,10, 11, 12) Alabama (9, 10, 11, 12) Illinois (8) Mississippi (3) United States 1999 Rate 46.4 10.7 9.8 9.1 9.0 8.6 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.7 5.7 1998 Rate (49.7) (12.8) (10.9) (9.7) (10.0) (6.7) (8.1) (8.1) (8.4) (11.4) (6.3) Percent Change (1998-1999) -6.6% -16.5% -10.7% -6.3% -10.0% 28.2% -.2% -2.9% -7.7% -32.8% -9.3% Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1998-1999 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 11 Figure 2-4 MURDER RATES 1990 - 1999 11 Rate Per 100,000 Population 10 9 8 7 6 5 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year Arizona 1996 1997 1998 1999 National As seen in figure 2-4, Arizona's murder rate increased significantly in the mid-1990s. However, over the last decade, the increase was only 3.9 percent as shown in Table 2-7. In comparison, the national murder rate fell 39.4 percent between 1990 and 1999. Table 2-7: Arizona and National Murder Rates, 1990-1999 Arizona Murder Rate National Murder Rate 1990 7.7 9.4 1996 Arizona Murder Rate National Murder Rate 8.5 7.4 1991 7.8 9.8 1997 8.2 6.8 1992 8.1 9.3 1998 8.1 6.3 1993 8.6 9.5 1999 8.0 5.7 1994 10.5 9.0 1995 10.4 8.2 Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1990-1999 Percent Change (1990-1999) 3.9% -39.4% Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 12 Rape Rates Under UCR guidelines, forcible rape 5 is defined as the carnal knowledge of a female forcibly and against her will, including assaults or attempts to commit rape by force or threat of force. Arizona has a rape rate lower than the national rate, and in 1999 ranked twenty-ninth when compared to other states and the District of Columbia. See Table 2-8. Between 1998 and 1999, Arizona's rape rate dropped by 6.9 percent, from about 31 rapes per 100,000 population to about 29. Table 2-8: Rape Rate per 100,000 Population, 1999 Top 10 Rankings of States and District of Columbia Compared with 1998 (in parentheses) with Arizona Rank Shown Rank 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 29. State (1998 Rank) Alaska (1) Delaware (2) New Mexico (3) Nevada (4) Michigan (5) District of Columbia (20) Washington (8) Florida (7) South Dakota (23) Tennessee (10) Arizona (31) United States 1999 Rate 83.5 70.2 54.3 52.1 49.2 47.8 47.1 46.3 45.8 44.0 28.9 32.7 1998 Rate (68.6) (67.1) (55.1) (52.1) (50.4) (36.3) (48.2) (49.6) (35.0) (45.8) (31.1) (34.5) Percent Change (1998-1999) 21.8% 4.6% -1.5% 0.0% -2.4% 31.5% -2.2% -6.8% 31.1% -3.8% -6.9% -5.2% Source: Crime in the United States reports 1998-1999 5 Under Arizona statutes, crimes of rape are classified as sexual assaults and can include male as well as female victims. However, to ensure nationwide uniformity in crime reporting, UCR guidelines require the use of standardized offense definitions by which law enforcement agencies are to submit data without regard to local statutes. In all instances, the data reported in this document conform to UCR definitions. Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 13 Figure 2-5 RAPE RATES 1990 - 1999 45 Rate Per 100,000 Population 42 39 36 33 30 27 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year Arizona 1996 1997 1998 1999 National Figure 2-5 shows an Arizona 10-year rape rate trend that declined and in 1999 was 11.6 percent lower than the national rate. When compared to the 1990 rate, the 1999 Arizona rape rate was 29.3 percent lower while the national rate fell 20.6 percent during that period. See Table 2-9. Table 2-9: Arizona and National Rape Rates, 1990-1999 Arizona Rape Rate National Rape Rate 1990 40.9 41.2 1996 Arizona Rape Rate National Rape Rate 31.2 36.3 1991 42.4 42.3 1997 32.8 35.9 1992 43.0 42.8 1998 31.1 34.5 1993 37.8 41.1 1999 28.9 32.7 1994 36.0 39.3 1995 33.6 37.1 Source: Crime in the United States reports 1990-1999 Percent Change (1990-1999) -29.3% -20.6% Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 14 Robbery Rates Robbery is defined as the taking or attempting to take anything of value from the care, custody, or control of a person by force or threat of force or violence and/or putting the victim in fear. In terms of 1999 robbery rates, Arizona was ranked fifteenth among other states and District of Columbia with a rate of 153 robberies per 100,000 population. This rate is very close to the national rate of 150 robberies per 100,000 population. From 1998 to 1999, Arizona's robbery rate fell 7.7 percent. Table 2-10: Robbery Rate per 100,000 Population, 1999 Top 10 Rankings of States and District of Columbia Compared with 1998 (in parentheses) with Arizona Rank Shown Rank State (1998 Rank) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 15. District of Columbia (1) Maryland (2) New York (3) Nevada (4) Illinois (5) Florida (6) Delaware (9) California (7) New Jersey (11) Louisiana (8) Arizona (13) United States 1999 Rate 644.3 263.7 240.8 232.7 219.4 211.6 197.9 181.1 174.9 173.6 152.5 150.2 1998 Rate (689.5) (298.7) (270.3) (254.9) (248.5) (242.7) (194.2) (210.6) (186.2) (198.0) (165.2) (165.4) Percent Change (1998-1999) -6.6% -11.7% -10.9% -8.7% -11.7% -12.8% 1.9% -14.0% -6.1% -12.3% -7.7% -9.2% Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1998-1999 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 15 Figure 2-6 ROBBERY RATES 1990 - 1999 275 255 235 215 195 175 155 135 Rate Per 100,000 Population 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year Arizona 1996 1997 1998 1999 National At the beginning of the decade, Arizona's robbery rate was significantly lower than the national robbery rate, as shown in Figure 2-6. However, in the past 10 years, Arizona's robbery rate stayed fairly constant while the national robbery rate declined sharply. As shown in Table 2-11, the Arizona rate dropped 5.2 percent in the last 10 years while the national rate fell 41.6 percent. Table 2-11: Arizona and National Robbery Rates, 1990-1999 Arizona Robbery Rate National Robbery Rate 1990 160.9 257.0 1996 Arizona Robbery Rate National Robbery Rate 167.8 201.9 1991 165.7 272.7 1997 165.7 186.3 1992 153.1 263.6 1998 165.2 165.4 1993 162.9 255.9 1999 152.5 150.2 1994 162.0 237.7 1995 173.8 220.9 Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1990-1999 Percent Change (1990-1999) -5.2% -41.6% Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 16 Aggravated Assault Rates Aggravated assault is an unlawful attack or attempted attack by one person upon another for the purpose of inflicting severe or aggravated bodily injury. In 1999, Arizona ranked sixteenth when compared to other states and the District of Columbia with an aggravated assault rate just above the national rate. See Table 2-12. Between 1998 and 1999 Arizona's aggravated assault rate declined 3.2 percent, which was slightly less than the national decline of 7 percent. Of all violent crime offenses reported in Arizona in 1999, aggravated assault comprised the largest proportion accounting for 65.6 percent. Table 2-12: Assault Rate per 100,000 Population, 1999 Top 10 Rankings of States and District of Columbia Compared with 1998 (in parentheses) with Arizona Rank Shown Rank State (1998 Rank) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 16. District of Columbia (1) South Carolina (3) New Mexico (2) Florida (4) Louisiana (5) Tennessee (10) Illinois (6) Delaware (7) Alaska (9) Maryland (12) Arizona (16) United States 1999 Rate 889.2 651.4 622.2 590.5 515.2 487.0 471.2 462.7 448.0 440.7 361.6 336.1 1998 Rate (943.0) (694.6) (732.0) (639.9) (531.9) (482.8) (516.9) (498.3) (492.0) (454.5) (373.6) (361.3) Percent Change (1998-1999) -5.7% -6.2% -15.0% -7.7% -3.1% 0.9% -8.8% -7.1% -9.0% -3.0% -3.2% -7.0% Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1998-1999 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 17 Figure 2-7 ASSAULT RATES 1990 - 1999 525 Rate Per 100,000 Population 475 425 375 325 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year Arizona 1996 1997 1998 1999 National Figure 2-7 compares the Arizona and national assault rates for the years 1990 through 1999. As was common for several other crimes, Arizona's assault rate experienced a peak in the mid-1990s before decreasing to near-national levels by end of the decade. A look at the Arizona aggravated assault rate over 10 years (Table 2-13) shows a decrease of 18.3 percent during this time. Table 2-13: Arizona and National Assault Rates, 1990-1999 Arizona Assault Rate National Assault Rate 1990 442.8 424.1 1996 Arizona Assault Rate National Assault Rate 424.0 390.9 1991 454.8 433.3 1997 417.1 382.3 1992 466.6 441.8 1998 373.6 361.3 1993 505.7 440.3 1999 361.6 336.1 1994 494.7 427.6 1995 495.7 418.3 Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1990-1999 Percent Change (1990-1999) -18.3% -20.7% Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 18 Property Crime Rates When considering the property crimes of burglary, larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft 6, Arizona ranked third in comparison to other states and the District of Columbia with a property crime rate 42.8 percent higher than the national rate. Although Arizona's 1999 rate was quite high, it was 10.9 percent lower than in 1998 (see Table 2-14). In 1999, larceny-theft offenses accounted for 65.7 percent of Arizona's reported property crimes, burglary offenses made up 19.4 percent of the total and motor vehicle theft contributed 15 percent. Table 2-14: Property Crime Rate per 100,000 Population, 1999 Top 10 Rankings of States and District of Columbia Compared with 1998 (in parentheses) Rank 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. State (1998 Rank) District of Columbia (1) Florida (3) Arizona (2) New Mexico (4) Louisiana (6) Washington (5) Utah (8) North Carolina (12) Oregon (7) Georgia (10) United States 1999 Rate 6,439.3 5,351.6 5,345.4 5,127.6 5,014.2 4,878.3 4,700.9 4,633.3 4,627.1 4,614.6 3,742.1 1998 Rate (7,117.0) (5,947.4) (5,997.0) (5,757.7) (5,318.8) (5,438.9) (5,191.7) (4,742.8) (5,226.8) (4,890.3) (4,051.8) Percent Change (1998-1999) -9.5% -10.0% -10.9% -10.9% -5.7% -10.3% -9.5% -2.3% -11.5% -5.6% -7.6% Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1998-1999 6 The FBI excludes arson offenses when estimating property crime totals due to a lack of sufficient data. Also see footnote 4 on Page 7 of this report. Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 19 Figure 2-8 PROPERTY CRIME RATES 1990 - 1999 7500 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 Rate Per 100,000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year Arizona 1996 1997 1998 1999 National Figure 2-8 shows that over the past 10 years, Arizona's property crime rate was much higher than the national rate and experienced an upward spike in the mid-1990s that was not matched nationally. By decade's end, both national and Arizona property crime rates fell over 26 percent and reached 10-year lows, as can be seen in Table 2-15. Table 2-15: Arizona and National Property Crime Rates, 1990-1999 Arizona Property Crime Rate National Property Crime Rate 1990 7,236.4 5,088.5 1996 Arizona Property Crime Rate National Property Crime Rate 6,435.5 4,450.1 1991 6,734.9 5,139.7 1997 6,571.3 4,318.7 1992 6,357.8 4,902.7 1998 5,997.0 4,051.8 1993 6,716.7 4,737.6 1999 5,345.4 3,742.1 1994 7,221.4 4,660.0 1995 7,500.1 4,591.3 Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1990-1999 Percent Change (1990-1999) -26.1% -26.5% Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 20 Burglary Rates The UCR Program defines burglary as the unlawful entry of a structure to commit a felony or theft. The use of force to gain entry is not required to classify an offense as burglary. With 1,034.4 burglary offenses per 100,000 population, Arizona's 1999 rate was significantly higher than the national rate (770 burglary offenses per 100,000 population). Arizona ranked sixth in comparison to other states and the District of Columbia. See Table 216. However, the Arizona rate decreased 14.5 percent between 1998 and 1999, resulting in the lowest burglary rate recorded in Arizona in more than three decades. Table 2-16: Burglary Rate per 100,000 Population, 1999 Top 10 Rankings of States and District of Columbia Compared with 1998 (in parentheses) Rank 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. State (1998 Rank) North Carolina (3) New Mexico (1) Florida (2) Louisiana (6) Mississippi (8) Arizona (5) Oklahoma (9) South Carolina (7) District of Columbia (4) Nevada (10) United States 1999 Rate 1,286.9 1,234.5 1,200.3 1,092.7 1,051.2 1,034.4 1,026.6 1,019.8 976.3 973.6 770.0 1998 Rate (1,324.6) (1,394.0) (1,361.7) (1,172.1) (1,144.5) (1,209.5) (1,143.4) (1,162.7) (1,216.3) (1,137.6) (863.0) Percent Change (1998-1999) -2.8% -11.4% -11.8% -6.8% -8.2% -14.5% -10.2% -12.3% -19.7% -14.4% -10.8% Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1998-1999 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 21 Figure 2-9 BURGLARY RATES 1990 - 1999 1700 Rate Per 100,000 Population 1500 1300 1100 900 700 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 Arizona National Figure 2-9 shows that both the Arizona and national burglary rates declined between 1990 and 1999 with the Arizona burglary rate invariably higher than the national rate. In the last 10 years, the burglary rate in Arizona decreased 38.1 percent, consistent with the decrease experienced on a national level. See Table 2-17. Table 2-17: Arizona and National Burglary Rates, 1990-1999 Arizona Burglary Rate National Burglary Rate 1990 1,669.9 1,235.9 1996 Arizona Burglary Rate National Burglary Rate 1,256.3 944.8 1991 1,607.5 1,252.0 1997 1,318.9 919.4 1992 1,411.7 1,168.2 1998 1,209.5 863.0 1993 1,465.5 1,099.2 1999 1,034.4 770.0 1994 1,476.2 1,042.0 1995 1,416.8 987.1 Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1990-1999 Percent Change (1990-1999) -38.1% -37.7% Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 22 Larceny-Theft Rates Larceny-theft is the unlawful taking, carrying, leading, or riding away of property from the possession or constructive possession of another in which no use of force, violence, or fraud occurs. Larceny-theft does not include motor vehicle theft, which is a Crime Index offense of its own. Arizona historically has a higher larceny-theft rate than the nation. In 1999, Arizona ranked fourth among all other states and the District of Columbia with a larceny-theft rate of 3,510.5 per 100,000 population. As shown in Table 2-18, the national rate was 2,551.4. Between 1998 and 1999, Arizona's larceny-theft rate declined slightly more (-10.5 percent) than the national rate (-6.5 percent). Table 2-18: Larceny-Theft Rate per 100,000 Population, 1999 Top 10 Rankings of States and District of Columbia Compared with 1998 (in parentheses) Rank 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. State (1998 Rank) District of Columbia (1) Utah (2) Florida (4) Arizona (3) New Mexico (7) Louisiana (9) Hawaii (8) Oregon (5) Washington (6) Montana (10) United States 1999 Rate 4,181.3 3,669.3 3,534.5 3,510.5 3,426.0 3,425.2 3,414.2 3,409.3 3,341.5 3,220.2 2,551.4 1998 Rate (4,657.7) (4,012.1) (3,886.8) (3,922.4) (3,743.9) (3,605.1) (3,681.0) (3,773.3) (3,757.7) (3,402.3) (2,729.0) Percent Change (1998-1999) -10.2% -8.5% -9.1% -10.5% -8.5% -5.0% -7.2% -9.6% -11.1% -5.4% -6.5% Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1998-1999 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 23 Figure 2-10 LARCENY-THEFT RATES 1990 - 1999 5500 Rate Per 100,000 Population 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year Arizona 1996 1997 1998 1999 National Figure 2-10 shows that both Arizona and national larceny-theft rates recorded an overall decline between 1990 and 1999. However, the Arizona larceny-theft rate rose in the mid-1990s before falling in the last half of the decade. In the end, Arizona's rate remained 37.6 percent higher than the national rate. Looking at the last 10 years, as shown in Table 2-19, Arizona realized a slightly greater larceny-theft rate decrease than reported nationally. Table 2-19: Arizona and National Larceny-Theft Rates, 1990-1999 Arizona Larceny-Theft Rate National Larceny-Theft Rate 1990 4,703.0 3,194.8 1996 Arizona Larceny-Theft Rate National Larceny-Theft Rate 4,252.5 2,979.7 1991 4,266.3 3,228.8 1997 4,282.0 2,893.4 1992 4,124.6 3,103.0 1998 3,922.4 2,729.0 1993 4,387.4 3,032.4 1999 3,510.5 2,551.4 1994 4,678.5 3,026.7 1995 4,925.6 3,043.8 Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1990-1999 Percent Change (1990-1999) -25.4% -20.1% Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 24 Motor Vehicle Theft Rates Motor vehicle theft is described as the theft or attempted theft of a motor vehicle and includes stealing automobiles, trucks, buses, motorcycles, motorscooters, snowmobiles and other like vehicles. In 1999, Arizona had a motor vehicle theft rate second only to the District of Columbia. However, at 1,281.6 offenses per 100,000 population, the District of Columbia's 1999 motor vehicle theft rate was 60.1 percent higher than Arizona's rate of 800.5. In addition, Arizona's rate declined 7.5 percent between 1998 and 1999 while the District of Columbia experienced a 3.1 percent increase. Table 2-20: Motor Vehicle Theft Rate per 100,000 Population, 1999 Top 10 Rankings of States and District of Columbia Compared with 1998 (in parentheses) Rank 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. State (1998 Rank) District of Columbia (1) Arizona (2) Nevada (3) Florida (4) Washington (6) Michigan (8) Georgia (9) California (7) Louisiana (11) Maryland (10) United States 1999 Rate 1,281.7 800.5 723.8 616.7 587.3 575.8 515.2 508.3 496.2 492.0 420.7 1998 Rate (1,243.0) (865.1) (788.0) (698.9) (618.7) (594.3) (556.6) (598.5) (541.6) (549.4) (459.8) Percent Change (1998-1999) 3.1% -7.5% -8.1% -11.8% -5.1% -3.1% -7.5% -15.1% -8.4% -10.4% -8.5% Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1998-1999 . Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 25 Figure 2-11 MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT RATES 1990 -1999 1200 1100 Rate Per 100,000 Population 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year Arizona 1996 1997 1998 1999 National Figure 2-11 shows both Arizona and national motor vehicle theft rates were lower in 1999 than in 1990. Once again, Arizona saw a mid-1990s upward spike before rates began dropping. At the end of the decade, Arizona's motor vehicle theft rate was almost double the national rate. In the last 10 years, the national motor vehicle theft rate fell 36 percent, as shown in Table 2-21. However, in Arizona, the drop was a much smaller 7.3 percent. Table 2-21: Arizona and National Motor Vehicle Theft Rates, 1990-1999 Arizona Motor Vehicle Theft Rate National Motor Vehicle Theft Rate 1990 863.5 657.8 1996 Arizona Motor Vehicle Theft Rate National Motor Vehicle Theft Rate 926.7 525.6 1991 861.1 659.0 1997 970.4 506.0 1992 821.5 631.5 1998 865.1 459.8 1993 863.8 606.1 1999 800.5 420.7 1994 1,066.7 591.3 1995 1,157.7 560.4 Source: Crime in the United States reports, 1990-1999 Percent Change (1990-1999) -7.3% -36.0% Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 26 Section Three: A Closer Look at Arizona Crime This section views Arizona crime more closely by analyzing UCR data at the county level and presenting a statewide 10-year history of adult and juvenile arrests. The data source is a series of Crime in Arizona reports published by DPS covering 1990 through 1999. The annual Crime in Arizona publications contain data reported to DPS by participating local police agencies, county sheriffs, college and university campus police, and state police agencies. County data are examined by number of offenses reported, crime rates and the number of offenses projected through calendar year 2004. Statewide arrest data are examined by age groups and arrest offenses. The offense and arrest numbers reported for the years 1990 through 1999 reflect unadjusted figures provided to the DPS. The term unadjusted is used because estimates have not been made to account for unreported UCR data. Offenses: In 1999, two county sheriff's offices had difficulty providing required data: one provided six-months of data from May through December; the other was unable to provide required reports due to computer issues that have since been corrected. In addition, some rural counties have an inconsistent history of UCR reporting spanning the last 10 years. Therefore, the number of offenses reported and crime rates for some rural counties, aggregated totals for all rural counties and statewide totals are lower over the 10-year period than what would have been recorded with a 100 percent reporting. Crime Rates: Crime rates reflect the number of reported offenses in relation to population. A rate is useful in interpreting crime statistics because it takes population into account and allows for comparisons between large and small jurisdictions. For example, knowing that there were 56 reported violent crimes in County A and 250 in County B is useful because it tells you that more violent crimes took place in County B. However, given this information alone, it is difficult to conclude in which county citizens may be at a greater risk of violent crime. A better picture is gained when it is expressed as rate of crime per 100,000 population 7. For example, if the violent crime rate is 191.6 in County A and 318.5 in County B, it may be concluded that for every 100,000 population in County A, 192 violent crimes might occur and, in County B, 319 violent crimes might occur. Therefore, County B may be expected to have a higher incidence of violent crime. Projections: Based on the number of offenses reported in the years 1990-1999, projections of the number of offenses which might occur in the years 2000 through 2004 were computed. Projections use a "linear regression model" a statistical method that takes into account only the number of past offenses as an indicator of possible future crime. In other words, the projection figures do not take into account any estimated changes in the economy, the changing population of Arizona or any other factors that could affect future crime. Arrests: In addition to its primary collection of Crime Index offense information, the UCR program solicits monthly data on persons arrested for all crimes except traffic violations. Arrest data are grouped as Part I or Part II offenses. The eight Crime Index offenses are classified as Part I crimes. Part II offenses include all crimes not classified as Part I. A complete listing and standardized definitions of Part II offenses are provided in Crime in the 7 Rates are computed using the following formula: [100,000 / ( population estimate) ] * number of offenses. Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 27 United States and the Crime in Arizona reports. Only arrest data are reported for Part II offenses. Population: Crime rates were computed using estimated population figures obtained from the Arizona Department of Economic Security, as shown in Table 3-1 8. Table 3-1: Population Estimates by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Total 1990 61,600 98,100 96,900 40,300 26,700 8,000 13,900 95,400 77,700 116,800 29,900 108,500 108,100 881,900 2,130,400 668,500 3,680,800 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Total 64,475 114,925 113,475 45,300 31,150 8,650 18,200 127,700 84,300 144,150 35,050 134,600 124,950 1,046,925 2,634,625 780,750 4,462,300 1991 61,900 99,575 99,150 41,050 27,500 8,025 14,550 102,375 78,705 119,650 30,400 111,100 110,225 904,205 2,179,975 682,890 3,767,000 1997 65,550 119,650 117,475 47,450 32,575 8,875 17,625 133,550 89,225 150,375 36,350 142,075 129,275 1,090,050 2,720,575 789,650 4,600,275 1992 62,950 101,175 101,350 41,700 27,700 8,350 14,825 105,725 80,480 112,600 31,050 114,110 112,825 924,840 2,233,700 700,265 3,858,850 1998 66,350 123,750 121,625 49,175 34,700 9,125 19,000 138,625 92,500 157,675 37,800 148,500 135,200 1,134,025 2,806,100 823,900 4,764,025 1993 63,050 103,325 104,700 42,400 29,400 8,375 15,550 114,000 80,675 127,225 31,525 118,400 116,450 995,075 2,291,200 712,600 3,958,875 1999 66,950 124,575 122,825 50,150 35,750 9,225 19,250 142,925 93,400 165,400 39,100 155,900 139,650 1,165,100 2,913,475 845,775 4,924,350 1994 63,275 108,225 107,500 43,350 30,625 8,425 16,075 120,325 81,750 132,225 32,400 123,500 119,650 987,325 2,355,900 728,425 4,071,650 1995 63,750 112,000 110,750 44,525 30,050 8,525 16,700 125,150 82,875 139,000 34,275 130,300 121,975 1,019,875 2,528,700 758,575 4,307,150 Percent Change (1990-1999) 8.7% 27.0% 26.8% 24.4% 33.9% 15.3% 38.5% 49.8% 20.2% 41.6% 30.8% 43.7% 29.2% 32.1% 36.8% 26.5% 33.8% Source: Arizona Department of Economic Security, Population Statistics Unit (County estimates may not sum to state total due to rounding) 8 Population data may vary from those published in previous years due to revised estimates. Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 28 Crime Index Offenses and Rates by County 1990-1999 Number of Crime Index Offenses: Table 3-2 provides Crime Index offenses by county and describes the overall 10-year trend. Statewide, reported offenses fell slightly (-3.3 percent). However, numbers did not fall in all counties. Seven counties saw increases that ranged from 3.3 percent (Coconino County) to 81.7 percent (Yavapai County). The remaining eight counties saw declines in reported offenses ranging from 1.7 percent (Maricopa County) to 36.6 percent (Santa Cruz County). Table 3-2: Crime Index Offenses by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 462 4,556 5,951 1,421 582 104 641 6,890 2,699 6,024 1,548 3,730 5,119 39,727 185,254 63,240 288,221 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 644 3,886 7,386 2,126 789 66 394 8,082 3,169 8,752 1,522 6,617 4,883 48,316 199,929 62,512 310,757 1991 450 4,806 5,631 1,567 652 91 272 6,711 3,144 6,327 1,601 3,987 5,298 40,537 178,538 57,346 276,421 1997 624 5,257 7,471 2,086 810 59 942 7,606 3,179 6,429 1,590 7,097 3,005 46,155 205,246 65,089 316,490 1992 504 4,141 5,715 1,602 665 71 618 6,597 2,701 7,778 1,944 3,986 745 37,067 168,078 59,062 264,207 1998 491 5,035 6,676 1,958 864 63 874 7,160 2,952 5,696 1,372 6,934 1,929 42,004 198,035 60,871 300,910 1993 613 4,416 6,321 1,612 711 88 863 7,063 2,864 7,284 2,322 5,049 1,044 40,250 179,349 65,113 284,712 1999 610 4,311 6,149 1,078 807 86 736 6,044 2,928 6,724 982 6,779 3,049 40,283 182,036 56,485 278,804 1994 796 3,653 7,109 1,867 740 93 683 8,397 2,939 8,142 1,917 6,948 1,670 44,954 197,517 72,460 314,931 1995 757 4,621 7,559 2,134 875 77 646 9,018 3,281 8,750 1,628 7,734 2,098 49,178 216,977 73,823 339,978 Percent Change (1990-1999) 32.0% -5.4% 3.3% -24.1% 38.7% -17.3% 14.8% -12.3% 8.5% 11.6% -36.6% 81.7% -40.4% 1.4% -1.7% -10.7% -3.3% Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 29 Crime Index Rates: Table 3-2 provided the raw number of reported Crime Index offenses in each county. Table 3-3 interprets the data by taking the effects of population growth into account to produce a crime rate for each county. Of the seven counties with increases in offense numbers, only three experienced increased crime rates. For example, Yavapai County saw an 81.7 percent increase in reported offenses but only a 26.5 percent rise in the crime rate. Overall, the State's crime rate fell 27.7 percent, ending the decade at 5,661.7 crimes per 100,000 population. The two counties with the highest populations (Maricopa and Pima) also recorded the highest Crime Index rates in the State. Table 3-3: Crime Rates by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 750.0 4,644.2 6,141.4 3,526.1 2,179.8 1,300.0 4,611.5 7,222.2 3,473.6 5,157.5 5,177.3 3,437.8 4,735.4 4,504.7 8,695.7 9,460.0 7,830.4 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 998.8 3,381.3 6,508.9 4,693.2 2,532.9 763.0 2,164.8 6,328.9 3,759.2 6,071.5 4,342.4 4,916.0 3,908.0 4,615.0 7,588.5 8,006.7 6,964.1 1991 727.0 4,826.5 5,679.3 3,817.3 2,370.9 1,134.0 1,869.4 6,555.3 3,994.7 5,287.9 5,266.4 3,588.7 4,806.5 4,483.2 8,189.9 8,397.5 7,338.0 1997 951.9 4,393.6 6,359.7 4,396.2 2,486.6 664.8 5,344.7 5,695.2 3,562.9 4,275.3 4,374.1 4,995.2 2,324.5 4,234.2 7,544.2 8,242.8 6,879.8 1992 800.6 4,092.9 5,638.9 3,841.7 2,400.7 850.3 4,168.6 6,239.8 3,356.1 6,344.2 6,260.9 3,493.1 660.3 4,007.9 7,524.6 8,434.2 6,846.8 1998 740.0 4,068.7 5,489.0 3,981.7 2,489.9 690.4 4,600.0 5,165.0 3,191.4 3,612.5 3,629.6 4,669.4 1,426.8 3,704.0 7,057.3 7,388.2 6,316.3 1993 972.2 4,273.9 6,037.2 3,801.9 2,418.4 1,050.7 5,549.8 6,195.6 3,550.0 5,725.3 7,365.6 4,264.4 896.5 4,214.3 7,827.7 9,137.4 7,191.7 1999 911.1 3,460.6 5,006.3 2,149.6 2,257.3 932.2 3,823.4 4,228.8 3,134.9 4,065.3 2,511.5 4,348.3 2,183.3 3,457.5 6,248.1 6,678.5 5,661.7 1994 1,258.0 3,375.4 6,613.0 4,306.8 2,416.3 1,103.9 4,248.8 6,978.6 3,595.1 6,157.7 5,916.7 5,625.9 1,395.7 4,553.1 8,383.9 9,947.5 7,734.7 1995 1,187.5 4,125.9 6,825.3 4,792.8 2,911.8 903.2 3,868.3 7,205.8 3,959.0 6,295.0 4,749.8 5,935.5 1,720.0 4,822.0 8,580.6 9,731.8 7,893.3 Percent Change (1990-1999) 21.5% -25.5% -18.5% -39.0% 3.6% -28.3% -17.1% -41.4% -9.8% -21.2% -51.5% 26.5% -53.9% -23.2% -28.1% -29.4% -27.7% Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 30 Figure 3-1 diagrams 10-year Crime Index rates for Pima and Maricopa counties, aggregated rural counties, and the State. It shows crime rates generally declining after 1995. Figure 3-1 CRIME RATES 1990 -- 1999 10000 Rate Per 100,000 Population 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 1990 1991 1992 Rural Cos. 1993 1994 1995 Year Maricopa Co. 1996 Pima Co. 1997 1998 1999 Arizona Crime Index Projections: Based on prior 10-year historical data, it is projected that rural counties may see reported Crime Index offenses increase 4.7 percent over the next five years. Maricopa County may see a similar increase. Five-year projections for Pima County show little change while, statewide the numbers could increase 3.5 percent. See Table 3-4. Table 3-4: Crime Index Offenses Projected, 2000-2004 2000 Rural Counties Maricopa County Pima County Arizona 45,818 203,581 63,186 312,585 2001 46,358 205,851 63,111 315,320 2002 46,899 208,121 63,035 318,055 2003 47,439 210,391 62,960 320,790 2004 47,979 212,661 62,885 323,525 Percent Change (2000-2004) 4.7% 4.5% -0.5% 3.5% Source: Arizona DPS, Research and Planning Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 31 Figure 3-2 shows the actual number of offenses reported for the years 1990 through 1999 and the projected offenses for the years 2000 through 2004. Figure 3-2 CRIME INDEX OFFENSES 1990 - 2004 Actual 1990 - 1999 Projected 2000 -2004 350 300 Number of Offenses (Thousands) 250 200 150 100 50 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 Rural Cos. 1994 1995 1996 1997 Maricopa Co. 1998 1999 Pima Co. 2000 2001 2002 2003 Arizona 2004 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 32 Violent Crime Number of Violent Crime Offenses: Table 3-5 shows the number of 1990 to 1999 violent crimes reported to law enforcement agencies in Arizona. The crime numbers in each county are fairly proportionate to that county's population. Table 3-5: Violent Crime Offenses by County, 1990-1999 (Includes murder, rape, robbery and aggravated assault) Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 44 222 381 160 53 12 76 563 201 684 107 365 470 3,338 15,686 4,604 23,628 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 67 248 448 209 56 5 46 536 315 850 223 586 462 4,051 17,170 6,405 27,626 1991 80 221 371 137 98 6 24 414 307 669 135 438 538 3,438 16,761 4,699 24,898 1997 38 402 493 231 60 1 56 450 330 635 335 679 232 3,942 17,059 6,428 27,429 1992 60 176 354 146 114 4 78 390 280 1,011 193 557 35 3,398 16,753 5,246 25,397 1998 37 331 464 198 67 5 60 519 274 564 111 736 105 3,471 16,846 5,964 26,281 1993 88 230 396 149 116 4 122 515 319 743 224 513 56 3,475 18,554 5,304 27,333 1999 66 431 429 113 50 5 60 470 290 864 95 698 370 3,941 16,579 5,315 25,835 1994 57 269 440 161 125 1 163 614 307 798 268 576 114 3,893 18,197 5,921 28,011 1995 64 231 490 239 131 3 147 581 330 820 170 708 117 4,031 18,720 6,603 29,354 Percent Change (1990-1999) 50.0% 94.1% 12.6% -29.4% -5.7% -58.3% -21.1% -16.5% 44.3% 26.3% -11.2% 91.2% -21.3% 18.1% 5.7% 15.4% 9.3% Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 33 Violent Crime Rates: Violent crime rates for 1999 are highest in the urban counties of Pima and Maricopa. Pinal County, which borders both of those counties, had the third highest violent crime rate in the State. Over the last 10 years, all but three counties (Apache, Cochise and Navajo) saw declines in violent crime rates. See Table 3-6. Table 3-6: Violent Crime Rates by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 71.4 226.3 393.2 397.0 198.5 150.0 546.8 590.1 258.7 585.6 357.9 336.4 434.8 378.5 736.3 688.7 641.9 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 103.9 215.8 394.8 461.4 179.8 57.8 252.7 419.7 373.7 589.7 636.2 435.4 369.7 386.9 651.7 820.4 619.1 1991 129.2 221.9 374.2 333.7 356.4 74.8 164.9 404.4 390.1 559.1 444.1 394.2 488.1 380.2 768.9 688.1 661.0 1997 58.0 336.0 419.7 486.8 184.2 11.3 317.7 337.0 369.9 422.3 921.6 477.9 179.5 361.6 627.0 814.0 596.2 1992 95.3 174.0 349.3 350.1 411.6 47.9 526.1 368.9 347.9 824.6 621.6 488.1 31.0 367.4 750.0 749.1 658.1 1998 55.8 267.5 381.5 402.6 193.1 54.8 315.8 374.4 296.2 357.7 293.7 495.6 77.7 306.1 600.3 723.9 551.7 1993 139.6 222.6 378.2 351.4 394.6 47.8 784.6 451.8 395.4 584.0 710.5 433.3 48.1 363.8 809.8 744.3 690.4 1999 98.6 346.0 349.3 225.3 139.9 54.2 311.7 328.8 310.5 522.4 243.0 447.7 264.9 338.3 569.0 628.4 524.6 1994 90.1 248.6 409.3 371.4 408.2 11.9 1,014.0 510.3 375.5 603.5 827.2 466.4 95.3 394.3 772.4 812.8 688.0 1995 100.4 206.3 442.4 536.8 435.9 35.2 880.2 464.2 398.2 589.9 496.0 543.4 95.9 395.2 740.3 870.4 681.5 Percent Change (1990-1999) 38.0% 52.9% -11.2% -43.2% -29.5% -63.9% -43.0% -44.3% 20.0% -10.8% -32.1% 33.1% -39.1% -10.6% -22.7% -8.8% -18.3% Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 34 As seen in Figure 3-3, Arizona's overall violent crime rate and that of Maricopa County started falling in 1994. However, Pima County rates didn't begin a downward trend until 1996 while aggregated rural counties actually experienced an increase in 1999. Figure 3-3 VIOLENT CRIME RATES 1990 -- 1999 900 Rate Per 100,000 Population 800 700 600 500 400 300 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 Rural Cos. Maricopa Co. Pima Co. Arizona Violent Crime Projections: Based upon the number of offenses reported for violent crime in the years 1990 through 1999, projected offense figures for the next five years are shown in Table 3-7. Overall, it is expected that the number of violent crime offenses will increase by 3.6 percent statewide with even higher increases anticipated in Pima County and aggregated rural counties. Maricopa County projections show a less than 1 percent rise in offenses. Table 3-7: Violent Crime Offenses Projected, 2000-2004 2000 Rural Counties Maricopa County Pima County Arizona 4,039 17,450 6,487 27,977 2001 4,101 17,490 6,640 28,231 2002 4,163 17,529 6,792 28,485 2003 4,226 17,569 6,944 28,739 2004 4,288 17,609 7,097 28,993 Percent Change (2000-2004) 6.1% 0.9% 9.4% 3.6% Source: Arizona DPS, Research and Planning Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 35 Figure 3-4 is a line graph of the number of violent crime offenses reported in years 1990 through 1999. In addition, offense projections for the years 2000 through 2004 are shown as an extension of the violent offenses trend line. Figure 3-4 VIOLENT OFFENSES 1990 - 2004 30 25 Number of Offenses (Thousands) 20 15 10 5 0 Actual 1990 - 1999 Projected 2000 - 2004 1990 1991 1992 1993 Rural Cos. 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Arizona 2004 Maricopa Co. Pima Co. Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 36 Murder Number of Murder Offenses: Murders occurring in Maricopa and Pima Counties comprised 89.6 percent of all murders reported in Arizona in 1999. However, the populations of these two counties comprised only 76.3 percent of the state population. See Table 3-8 for the number of murders reported in each county during the years 1990 through 1999. Table 3-8: Murder Offenses by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 2 4 4 4 1 0 1 7 2 12 1 11 4 53 174 51 278 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 3 2 4 0 0 0 0 10 2 9 1 5 4 40 259 75 374 1991 0 7 1 1 1 0 0 3 4 15 2 3 3 40 203 44 287 1997 0 6 4 6 0 0 0 12 1 4 1 7 1 42 255 64 361 1992 1 5 5 1 1 0 1 14 1 12 4 7 1 53 196 60 309 1998 0 4 8 1 1 1 1 10 4 4 0 7 0 41 252 74 367 1993 1 2 7 2 1 0 3 13 3 13 1 4 0 50 216 65 331 1999 0 3 5 0 1 0 0 8 5 4 0 11 3 40 283 61 384 1994 0 9 7 3 0 0 2 13 3 12 3 13 2 67 295 57 419 1995 2 4 9 3 2 0 2 5 1 9 3 7 3 50 298 92 440 Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999 Percent Change (1990-1999) -100.0% -25.0% 25.0% -100.0% 0.0% 0.0% -100.0% 14.3% 150.0% -66.7% -100.0% 0.0% -25.0% -24.5% 62.6% 19.6% 38.1% Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 37 Murder Rates: Table 3-9 shows that over the last decade the statewide murder rate increased slightly (3.2 percent), but declined or remained unchanged in 13 of 15 counties. The only two counties to see an increase were Maricopa and Navajo. Table 3-9: Murder Rates by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 3.2 4.1 4.1 9.9 3.7 0.0 7.2 7.3 2.6 10.3 3.3 10.1 3.7 6.0 8.2 7.6 7.6 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties- Subtotal Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 4.7 1.7 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 2.4 6.2 2.9 3.7 3.2 3.8 9.8 9.6 8.4 1991 0.0 7.0 1.0 2.4 3.6 0.0 0.0 2.9 5.1 12.5 6.6 2.7 2.7 4.4 9.3 6.4 7.6 1997 0.0 5.0 3.4 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 1.1 2.7 2.8 4.9 0.8 3.9 9.4 8.1 7.8 1992 1.6 4.9 4.9 2.4 3.6 0.0 6.7 13.2 1.2 9.8 12.9 6.1 0.9 5.7 8.8 8.6 8.0 1998 0.0 3.2 6.6 2.0 2.9 11.0 5.3 7.2 4.3 2.5 0.0 4.7 0.0 3.6 9.0 9.0 7.7 1993 1.6 1.9 6.7 4.7 3.4 0.0 19.3 11.4 3.7 10.2 3.2 3.4 0.0 5.2 9.4 9.1 8.4 1999 0.0 2.4 4.1 0.0 2.8 0.0 0.0 5.6 5.4 2.4 0.0 7.1 2.1 3.4 9.7 7.2 7.8 1994 0.0 8.3 6.5 6.9 0.0 0.0 12.4 10.8 3.7 9.1 9.3 10.5 1.7 6.8 12.5 7.8 10.3 1995 3.1 3.6 8.1 6.7 6.7 0.0 12.0 4.0 1.2 6.5 8.8 5.4 2.5 4.9 11.8 12.1 10.2 Percent Change (1990-1999) -100.0% -40.9% -1.4% -100.0% -25.3% 0.0% -100.0% -23.7% 108.0% -76.5% -100.0% -30.4% -41.9% -42.9% 18.9% -5.5% 3.2% Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 38 After a sharp upward spike in the mid-1990s, Arizona murder rates gradually declined, as can be seen in Figure 3-5. Maricopa County rates were also falling until 1999, when rates rose for the first time since 1994. Figure 3-5 MURDER RATES 1990 -- 1999 13 Rate Per 100,000 Population 11 9 7 5 3 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 Rural Cos. Maricopa Co. Pima Co. Arizona Murder Offense Projections: Table 3-10 projects the possible number of murders for the years 2000 through 2004. Although statewide murder offenses are expected to increase 11.1 percent, this figure is strongly influenced by urban totals. Rural counties in Arizona are estimated to experience a decrease in murder offenses through 2004. Table 3-10: Murder Offenses Projected, 2000-2004 2000 Rural Counties Maricopa County Pima County Arizona 41 301 77 419 2001 39 312 79 431 2002 38 323 82 442 2003 37 333 84 454 2004 35 344 86 466 Percent Change (2000-2004) -12.7% 14.1% 12.1% 11.1% Source: Arizona DPS, Research and Planning Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 39 Rape Number of Rape Offenses: The number of rapes reported in Arizona decreased 8.4 percent in the last 10 years. Pima County saw a slightly larger decrease of 11.6 percent during the same period. In Maricopa County, rape offense numbers fell by 4.8 percent over 10 years. See Table 3-11. Table 3-11: Rape Offenses by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 4 16 30 18 1 0 4 16 11 65 2 22 29 218 875 387 1,480 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 6 7 37 10 1 0 0 17 17 64 3 41 25 228 778 377 1,383 1991 2 16 52 15 1 0 2 18 17 61 1 25 30 240 902 427 1,569 1997 3 7 44 24 1 0 0 14 10 42 0 38 5 188 832 409 1,429 1992 5 12 39 18 4 1 2 23 26 79 2 17 0 228 895 481 1,604 1998 2 10 38 22 2 0 3 18 10 31 3 27 1 167 745 491 1,403 1993 3 8 42 18 1 1 2 19 15 62 4 21 2 198 816 425 1,439 1999 4 9 38 6 1 0 3 15 16 35 7 28 18 180 833 342 1,355 1994 2 13 49 17 0 0 2 35 19 61 0 33 6 237 771 401 1,409 1995 3 4 32 19 4 0 0 29 26 58 1 34 9 219 766 394 1,379 Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999 Percent Change (1990-1999) 0.0% -43.8% 26.7% -66.7% 0.0% 0.0% -25.0% -6.3% 45.5% -46.2% 250.0% 27.3% -37.9% -17.4% -4.8% -11.6% -8.4% Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 40 Rape Rates: The 1990 1999 rates provided in Table 3-12 reflect a 31.6 percent decline in the state rape rate. Maricopa and Pima Counties experienced similar decreases. All counties except Navajo and Santa Cruz saw rates fall or remain unchanged in the last decade. Table 3-12: Rape Rates by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 6.5 16.3 31.0 44.7 3.7 0.0 28.8 16.8 14.2 55.7 6.7 20.3 26.8 24.7 41.1 57.9 40.2 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 9.3 6.1 32.6 22.1 3.2 0.0 0.0 13.3 20.2 44.4 8.6 30.5 20.0 21.8 29.5 48.3 31.0 1991 3.2 16.1 52.4 36.5 3.6 0.0 13.7 17.6 21.6 51.0 3.3 22.5 27.2 26.5 41.4 62.5 41.7 1997 4.6 5.9 37.5 50.6 3.1 0.0 0.0 10.5 11.2 27.9 0.0 26.7 3.9 17.2 30.6 51.8 31.1 1992 7.9 11.9 38.5 43.2 14.4 12.0 13.5 21.8 32.3 64.4 6.4 14.9 0.0 24.7 40.1 68.7 41.6 1998 3.0 8.1 31.2 44.7 5.8 0.0 15.8 13.0 10.8 19.7 7.9 18.2 0.7 14.7 26.5 59.6 29.4 1993 4.8 7.7 40.1 42.5 3.4 11.9 12.9 16.7 18.6 48.7 12.7 17.7 1.7 20.7 35.6 59.6 36.3 1999 6.0 7.2 30.9 12.0 2.8 0.0 15.6 10.5 17.1 21.2 17.9 18.0 12.9 15.4 28.6 40.4 27.5 1994 3.2 12.0 45.6 39.2 0.0 0.0 12.4 29.1 23.2 46.1 0.0 26.7 5.0 24.0 32.7 55.1 34.6 1995 4.7 3.6 28.9 42.7 13.3 0.0 0.0 23.2 31.4 41.7 2.9 26.1 7.4 21.5 30.3 51.9 32.0 Percent Change (1990-1999) -8.0% -55.7% -0.1% -73.2% -25.3% 0.0% -45.8% -37.4% 21.0% -62.0% 167.6% -11.4% -52.0% -37.5% -30.4% -30.2% -31.6% Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 41 Figure 3-6 shows the rape rate trends for the last 10 years. It appears that Pima County's overall 30.2 percent decline in the rape rate was greatly influenced by a dramatic drop in the 1999 rate following increases in 1997 and 1998. Figure 3-6 RAPE RATES 1990 -- 1999 70 Rate Per 100,000 Population 60 50 40 30 20 10 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year 1996 1997 1998 Arizona 1999 Rural Cos. Maricopa Co. Pima Co. Rape Offense Projections: Over the next five years, reported rape offenses are projected to decrease in all parts of Arizona. Table 3-13 indicates that the State could experience a 6.1 percent drop with a more significant reduction in rural counties. Table 3-13: Rape Offenses Projected, 2000-2004 2000 Rural Counties Maricopa County Pima County Arizona 178 758 398 1,333 2001 172 746 395 1,313 2002 166 734 392 1,292 2003 160 723 389 1,272 2004 154 711 386 1,252 Percent Change (2000-2004) -13.4% -6.1% -2.9% -6.1% Source: Arizona DPS, Research and Planning Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 42 Robbery Number of Robbery Offenses: Table 3-14 shows that the number of robberies reported between 1990 and 1999 increased in eight of the 15 counties. Statewide, the number of robberies grew 23.5 percent. Table 3-14: Robbery Offenses by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 1 28 57 9 2 1 5 45 10 81 15 22 53 329 4,465 1,082 5,876 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1 32 68 9 1 0 6 73 28 89 37 28 58 430 5,373 1,557 7,360 1991 3 20 61 12 0 0 1 57 18 96 29 24 65 386 4,727 1,077 6,190 1997 4 44 50 11 0 0 9 40 33 90 22 38 22 363 5,188 1,745 7,296 1992 0 27 54 4 2 0 3 49 24 100 81 27 2 373 4,245 1,171 5,789 1998 2 43 60 1 1 0 3 75 16 88 30 51 2 372 5,434 1,742 7,548 1993 3 33 48 10 2 0 6 69 16 91 96 31 10 415 4,811 1,075 6,301 1999 1 48 66 5 2 0 7 58 21 90 12 39 22 371 5,376 1,508 7,255 1994 5 32 55 8 0 0 8 81 24 91 101 40 7 452 4,801 1,226 6,479 1995 4 30 51 8 0 0 6 115 24 74 51 38 12 413 5,281 1,445 7,139 Percent Change (1990-1999) 0.0% 71.4% 15.8% -44.4% 0.0% -100.0% 40.0% 28.9% 110.0% 11.1% -20.0% 77.3% -58.5% 12.8% 20.4% -39.4% 23.5% Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 43 Robbery Rates: Unlike the trends seen in robbery offenses, Table 3-15 demonstrates that while the robbery reports were increasing, they did not increase at the same rate as the population. As a result, Arizona experienced a 7.7 percent decrease in the robbery rate in the last 10 years. Table 3-15: Robbery Rates by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 1.6 28.5 58.8 22.3 7.5 12.5 36.0 47.2 12.9 69.3 50.2 20.3 49.0 37.3 209.6 161.9 159.6 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1.6 27.8 59.9 19.9 3.2 0.0 33.0 57.2 33.2 61.7 105.6 20.8 46.4 41.1 203.9 199.4 164.9 1991 4.8 20.1 61.5 29.2 0.0 0.0 6.9 55.7 22.9 80.2 95.4 21.6 59.0 42.7 216.8 157.7 164.3 1997 6.1 36.8 42.6 23.2 0.0 0.0 51.1 30.0 37.0 59.9 60.5 26.7 17.0 33.3 190.7 221.0 158.6 1992 0.0 26.7 53.3 9.6 7.2 0.0 20.2 46.3 29.8 81.6 260.9 23.7 1.8 40.3 190.0 167.2 150.0 1998 3.0 34.7 49.3 2.0 2.9 0.0 15.8 54.1 17.3 55.8 79.4 34.3 1.5 32.8 193.6 211.4 158.4 1993 4.8 31.9 45.8 23.6 6.8 0.0 38.6 60.5 19.8 71.5 304.5 26.2 8.6 43.5 210.0 150.9 159.2 1999 1.5 38.5 53.7 10.0 5.6 0.0 36.4 40.6 22.5 54.4 30.7 25.0 15.8 31.8 184.5 178.3 147.3 1994 7.9 29.6 51.2 18.5 0.0 0.0 49.8 67.3 29.4 68.8 311.7 32.4 5.9 45.8 203.8 168.3 159.1 1995 6.3 26.8 46.0 18.0 0.0 0.0 35.9 91.9 29.0 53.2 148.8 29.2 9.8 40.5 208.8 190.5 165.7 Percent Change (1990-1999) -8.0% 35.0% -8.7% -55.4% -25.3% -100.0% 1.1% -14.0% 74.7% -21.5% -38.8% 23.4% -67.9% -14.6% -12.0% 10.2% -7.7% Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 44 County by county fluctuations in robbery rates have varied over the last 10 years with five counties seeing increases while rates dropped in the rest of the State. As Figure 3-7 demonstrates, robbery rates in urban areas were considerably higher than in rural parts of the State. Figure 3-7 ROBBERY RATES 1990 -- 1999 225 200 Rate Per 100,000 Population 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 Rural Cos. Maricopa Co. Pima Co. Arizona Robbery Offense Projections: In the next five years, the number of robbery offenses might rise slightly in the rural counties and at a higher rate in Maricopa and Pima Counties. Overall, the State could experience a 10.3 percent increase in robberies by 2004. See Table 316. Table 3-16: Robbery Offenses Projected, 2000-2004 2000 Rural Counties Maricopa County Pima County Arizona 398 5,638 1,797 7,833 2001 400 5,759 1,876 8,035 2002 401 5,881 1,955 8,236 2003 403 6,002 2,034 8,438 2004 404 6,123 2,113 8,640 Percent Change (2000-2004) 1.4% 8.6% 17.6% 10.3% Source: Arizona DPS, Research and Planning Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 45 Aggravated Assault Number of Aggravated Assault Offenses: Table 3-17 shows that the number of reported aggravated assault offenses in Arizona reached its peak during the mid-1990s. By the end of the decade, eight counties recorded decreased numbers of offenses while seven experienced increases. Table 3-17: Aggravated Assault Offenses by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 37 174 290 129 49 11 66 495 178 526 89 310 384 2,738 10,172 3,084 15,994 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 57 207 339 190 54 5 40 436 268 688 182 512 375 3,353 10,760 4,396 18,509 1991 75 178 257 109 96 6 21 336 268 497 103 386 440 2,772 10,929 3,151 16,852 1997 31 345 395 190 59 1 47 384 286 499 312 596 204 3,349 10,784 4,210 18,343 1992 54 132 256 123 107 3 72 304 229 820 106 506 32 2,744 11,417 3,534 17,695 1998 33 274 358 174 63 4 53 416 244 441 78 651 102 2,891 10,415 3,657 16,963 1993 81 187 299 119 112 3 111 414 285 577 123 457 44 2,812 12,711 3,739 19,262 1999 61 371 320 102 46 5 50 389 248 735 76 620 327 3,350 10,087 3,404 16,841 1994 50 215 329 133 125 1 151 485 261 634 164 490 99 3,137 12,330 4,237 19,704 1995 55 193 398 209 125 3 139 432 279 679 115 629 93 3,349 12,375 4,672 20,396 Percent Change (1990-1999) 64.9% 113.2% 10.3% -20.9% -6.1% -54.5% -24.2% -21.4% 39.3% 39.7% -14.6% 100.0% -14.8% 22.4% -0.8% 10.4% 5.3% Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 46 Aggravated Assault Rates: Eleven counties saw declines in aggravated assault rates over the last decade with rural county rates often lower than those of urban counties, as shown in Table 3-18. Pinal County, which borders urban Maricopa and Pima counties, had the highest aggravated assault rate in 1999. Table 3-18: Aggravated Assault Rates by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 60.1 177.4 299.3 320.1 183.5 137.5 474.8 518.9 229.1 450.3 297.7 385.7 355.2 310.5 477.5 461.3 434.5 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 88.4 180.1 298.7 419.4 173.4 57.8 219.8 341.4 317.9 477.3 519.3 380.4 300.1 320.3 408.4 563.0 414.8 1991 121.2 178.8 259.2 265.5 349.1 74.8 144.3 328.2 340.5 415.4 338.8 347.4 399.2 306.6 501.3 461.4 447.4 1997 47.3 288.3 336.2 400.4 181.1 11.3 266.7 287.5 320.5 331.8 858.3 419.5 157.8 307.2 396.4 533.1 398.7 1992 85.8 130.5 252.6 295.0 386.3 35.9 485.7 287.5 284.5 668.8 341.4 443.4 28.4 296.7 511.1 504.7 458.6 1998 49.7 221.4 294.3 353.8 181.6 43.8 278.9 300.1 263.8 279.7 206.3 438.4 75.4 254.9 371.2 443.9 356.1 1993 128.5 181.0 285.6 280.7 381.0 35.8 713.8 363.2 353.3 453.5 390.2 386.0 37.8 294.4 554.8 524.7 486.6 1999 91.1 297.8 260.5 203.4 128.7 54.2 259.7 272.2 265.5 444.4 194.4 397.7 234.2 287.5 346.2 402.5 342.0 1994 79.0 198.7 306.0 306.8 408.2 11.9 939.3 403.1 319.3 479.5 506.2 396.8 82.7 317.7 523.4 581.7 483.9 1995 86.3 172.3 359.4 469.4 416.0 35.2 832.3 345.2 336.7 488.5 335.5 482.7 76.2 328.4 489.4 615.9 473.5 Percent Change (1990-1999) 51.7% 67.9% -12.9% -36.5% -29.9% -60.6% -45.3% -47.5% 15.9% -1.3% -34.7% 39.2% -34.1% -7.4% -27.5% -12.8% -21.3% Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 47 As pictured in Figure 3-8, 10-year trend lines show that aggravated assault rates were lower throughout the State at the end of the decade. However in 1999, aggregated rural areas saw a slight increase over the previous year. Figure 3-8 ASSAULT RATES 1990 -- 1999 650 600 Rate Per 100,000 Population 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 Rural Cos. Maricopa Co. Pima Co. Arizona Aggravated Assault Offense Projections: Statewide, aggravated assault numbers are projected to stay about the same over the next five years. Pima and aggregated rural counties are expected to see increases around 7 percent while Maricopa County could see a slight decline in numbers. See Table 3-19. Table 3-19: Aggravated Assault Offenses Projected, 2000-2004 2000 Rural Counties Maricopa County Pima County Arizona 3,423 10,753 4,215 18,392 2001 3,491 10,673 4,289 18,453 2002 3,559 10,592 4,363 18,514 2003 3,627 10,511 4,437 18,575 2004 3,694 10,430 4,511 18,636 Percent Change (2000-2004) 7.9% -3.0% 7.0% 1.3% Source: Arizona DPS, Research and Planning Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 48 Property Crime Number of Property Crime Offenses: While the number of Arizona residents rose 33.8 percent over the last 10 years, reported property crime offenses decreased 4.4 percent. See Table 3-20. Table 3-20: Property Crime Offenses by County, 1990-1999 (Includes burglary, larceny, motor vehicle theft and arson) Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 418 4,334 5,570 1,261 529 92 565 6,327 2,498 5,340 1,441 3,365 4,649 36,389 169,568 58,636 264,593 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 577 3,638 6,938 1,917 733 61 348 7,546 2,854 7,902 1,299 6,031 4,421 44,265 182,759 56,107 283,131 1991 370 4,585 5,260 1,430 554 85 248 6,297 2,837 5,658 1,466 3,549 4,760 37,099 161,777 52,647 251,523 1997 586 4,855 6,978 1,855 750 58 886 7,156 2,849 5,794 1,255 6,418 2,773 42,213 188,187 58,661 289,061 1992 444 3,965 5,361 1,456 551 67 540 6,207 2,421 6,767 1,751 3,429 710 33,669 151,325 53,816 238,810 1998 454 4,704 6,212 1,760 797 58 814 6,641 2,678 5,132 1,261 6,198 1,824 38,533 181,189 54,907 274,629 1993 525 4,186 5,925 1,463 595 84 741 6,548 2,545 6,541 2,098 4,536 988 36,775 160,795 59,809 257,379 1999 544 3,880 5,720 965 757 81 676 5,574 2,638 5,860 887 6,081 2,679 36,342 165,457 51,170 252,969 1994 739 3,384 6,669 1,706 615 92 520 7,783 2,632 7,344 1,649 6,372 1,556 41,061 179,320 66,539 286,920 1995 693 4,390 7,069 1,895 744 74 499 8,437 2,951 7,930 1,458 7,026 1,981 45,147 198,257 67,220 310,624 Percent Change (1990-1999) 30.1% -10.5% 2.7% -23.5% 43.1% -12.0% 19.6% -11.9% 5.6% 9.7% -38.4% 80.7% -42.4% -0.1% -2.4% -12.7% -4.4% Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 49 Property Crime Rates: The state of Arizona historically has a high property crime rate. In 1999, 5,137 property crimes occurred per every 100,000 unit of population. This rate is a 30year low and reflects a 28.5 percent decrease since 1990. With the exception of Apache, Graham and Yavapai Counties, all Arizona counties saw property crime rates fall over the last 10 years. See Table 3-21. Table 3-21: Property Crime Rates by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 678.6 4,417.9 5,748.2 3,129.0 1,981.3 1,150.0 4,064.7 6,632.1 3,214.9 4,571.9 4,819.4 3,101.4 4,300.6 4,126.2 7,959.4 8,771.3 7,188.5 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 894.9 3,165.5 6,114.1 4,231.8 2,353.1 705.2 1,912.1 5,909.2 3,385.5 5,481.8 3,706.1 4,480.7 3,538.2 4,228.1 6,936.8 7,186.3 6,345.0 1991 597.7 4,604.6 5,305.1 3,483.6 2,014.5 1,059.2 1,704.5 6,150.9 3,604.6 4,728.8 4,822.4 3,194.4 4,318.4 4,102.9 7,421.0 7,709.4 6,677.0 1997 894.0 4,057.7 5,940.0 3,909.4 2,302.4 653.5 5,027.0 5,358.3 3,193.1 3,853.0 3,452.5 4,517.3 2,145.0 3,872.6 6,917.2 7,428.7 6,283.6 1992 705.3 3,919.0 5,289.6 3,491.6 1,989.2 802.4 3,642.5 5,870.9 3,008.2 5,519.6 5,639.3 3,005.0 629.3 3,640.5 6,774.6 7,685.1 6,688.6 1998 684.3 3,801.2 5,107.5 3,579.1 2,296.8 635.6 4,284.2 4,790.6 2,895.1 3,254.8 3,336.0 4,173.7 1,349.1 3,397.9 6,457.0 6,664.3 5,764.6 1993 832.7 4,051.3 5,659.0 3,450.5 2,023.8 1,003.0 4,765.3 5,743.9 3,154.6 5,141.3 6,655.0 3,831.1 848.4 3,850.5 7,017.9 8,393.1 6,501.3 1999 812.5 3,114.6 4,657.0 1,924.2 2,117.5 878.0 3,511.7 3,899.9 2,824.4 3,542.9 2,268.5 3,900.6 1,918.4 3,119.2 5,679.0 6,050.1 5,137.1 1994 1,167.9 3,126.8 6,203.7 3,935.4 2,008.2 1,092.0 3,234.8 6,468.3 3,219.6 5,554.2 5,089.5 5,159.5 1,300.5 4,158.8 7,611.5 9,134.6 7,046.8 1995 1,087.1 3,919.6 6,382.8 4,256.0 2,475.9 868.0 2,988.0 6,741.5 3,560.8 5,705.0 4,253.8 5,392.2 1,624.1 4,426.7 7,840.3 8,861.4 7,211.8 Percent Change (1990-1999) 19.7% -29.5% -19.0% -38.5% 6.9% -23.6% -13.6% -41.2% -12.1% -22.5% -52.9% 25.8% -55.4% -24.4% -28.7% -31.0% -28.5% Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 50 As in other crime areas discussed in this report, trend lines for property crime rates in the 1990s look like a roller coaster: falling, rising and falling again as represented in Figure 3-9. For most counties, the highest rates were recorded in the mid-1990s and rates were lower at the end of the decade. Figure 3-9 PROPERTY CRIME RATES 1990 -- 1999 10000 Rate Per 100,000 Population 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year 1996 Pima Co. 1997 1998 Arizona 1999 Rural Cos. Maricopa Co. Property Crime Projections: In Table 3-22, projections show that Arizona property crime numbers could grow 3.5 percent through 2004. Pima County might see a small decrease in reported property crimes, while all other parts of the State should experience a less than 5 percent rise. Table 3-22: Property Crime Offenses Projected, 2000-2004 2000 Rural Counties Maricopa County Pima County Arizona 41,779 186,131 56,699 284,609 2001 42,257 188,361 56,471 287,089 2002 42,735 190,592 56,243 289,570 2003 43,213 192,822 56,016 292,051 2004 43,692 195,053 55,788 294,532 Percent Change (2000-2004) 4.6% 4.8% -1.6% 3.5% Source: Arizona DPS, Research and Planning Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 51 Figure 3-10 is a line graph depicting property crime offenses reported in years 1990 through 1999. In addition, offense projections for the years 2000 through 2004 are shown as an extension of the 10-year trend line. Figure 3-10 PROPERTY OFFENSES 1990 - 2004 Actual 1990 - 1999 Projected 2000 - 2003 350 300 Number of Offenses (Thousands) 250 200 150 100 50 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 Rural Cos. 1994 1995 Maricopa Co. 1996 1997 1998 1999 Pima Co. 2000 2001 Arizona 2002 2003 2004 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 52 Burglary Number of Burglary Offenses: All but three counties saw burglary offense numbers drop in the 1990s. Within the 10-year span, statewide burglary totals decreased by 19.7 percent as shown in Table 3-23. Urban counties recorded rates about 21 percent lower while rural county rates broadly ranged from a 139 percent increase to a 78 percent decline. Table 3-23: Burglary Offenses by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 140 959 1,016 291 51 32 175 1,701 640 1,524 461 796 814 8,600 41,370 10,564 60,534 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 151 816 1,028 386 88 0 118 2,080 595 1,895 423 1,317 993 9,890 36,080 9,277 55,247 1991 92 1,122 906 347 59 19 54 1,724 700 1,737 519 769 870 8,918 40,496 10,127 59,541 1997 165 1,127 1,031 436 100 1 286 2,132 657 1,272 294 1,488 716 9,705 37,972 9,895 57,572 1992 109 878 803 345 78 21 123 1,764 588 1,904 644 727 113 8,097 35,320 9,467 52,884 1998 99 1,138 982 450 143 1 163 1,877 652 1,145 308 1,499 703 9,160 36,441 9,434 55,035 1993 166 1,041 924 331 83 21 170 1,855 597 1,703 706 1,185 139 8,921 37,176 9,896 55,993 1999 129 808 732 161 122 7 143 1,282 645 1,375 177 1,359 709 7,649 32,624 8,348 48,621 1994 138 743 902 369 91 6 162 2,184 699 1,879 521 1,628 339 9,661 39,119 9,858 58,638 1995 129 1,018 992 384 103 0 113 2,291 707 1,745 505 1,571 477 10,035 39,519 8,645 58,199 Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999 Percent Change (1990-1999) -7.9% -15.7% -28.0% -44.7% 139.2% -78.1% -18.3% -24.6% 0.8% -9.8% -61.6% 70.7% -12.9% -11.1% -21.1% -21.0% -19.7% Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 53 Burglary Rates: From 1990 to 1999, the overall state burglary rate decreased 40 percent. Thirteen counties reported rate declines over the last decade, as shown in Table 3-24. The State's largest county, Maricopa, had the highest burglary rate in 1999. Table 3-24: Burglary Rates by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 227.3 977.6 1,048.5 722.1 191.0 400.0 1,259.0 1,783.0 823.7 1,304.8 1,541.8 733.6 753.0 975.2 1,941.9 1,580.3 1,644.6 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 234.2 710.0 905.9 852.1 282.5 0.0 648.4 1,628.8 705.8 1,314.6 1,206.8 978.5 794.7 944.7 1,369.5 1,188.2 1,238.1 1991 148.6 1,126.8 913.8 845.3 214.5 236.8 371.1 1,684.0 889.4 1,451.7 1,707.2 692.2 789.3 986.3 1,857.6 1,483.0 1,580.6 1997 251.7 941.9 877.6 918.9 307.0 11.3 1,622.7 1,596.4 736.3 845.9 808.8 1,047.3 553.9 890.3 1,395.7 1,253.1 1,251.5 1992 173.2 867.8 792.3 827.3 281.6 251.5 829.7 1,668.5 730.6 1,553.0 2,074.1 637.1 100.2 875.5 1,581.2 1,351.9 1,370.5 1998 149.2 919.6 807.4 915.1 412.1 11.0 857.9 1,354.0 704.9 726.2 814.8 1,009.4 520.0 807.7 1,298.6 1,145.0 1,155.2 1993 263.3 1,007.5 882.5 780.7 282.3 250.7 1,093.2 1,627.2 740.0 1,338.6 2,239.5 1,000.8 119.4 934.1 1,622.6 1,388.7 1,414.4 1999 192.7 648.6 596.0 321.0 341.3 75.9 742.9 897.0 690.6 831.3 452.7 871.7 507.7 656.5 1,119.8 987.0 987.4 1994 218.1 686.5 839.1 851.2 297.1 71.2 1,007.8 1,815.1 855.0 1,421.1 1,608.0 1,318.2 283.3 978.5 1,660.5 1,353.3 1,440.2 1995 202.4 908.9 895.7 862.4 342.8 0.0 676.6 1,830.6 853.1 1,255.4 1,473.4 1,205.7 391.1 983.9 1,562.8 1,139.6 1,351.2 Percent Change (1990-1999) -15.2% -33.7% -43.2% -55.5% 78.7% -81.0% -41.0% -49.7% -16.2% -36.3% -70.6% 18.8% -32.6% -32.7% -42.3% -37.5% -40.0% Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 54 Although two rural counties saw burglary rates increase, rates for aggregated rural counties, urban counties and the State were lower at the end of the decade. As shown in Figure 3-11, Pima County's burglary rate declined between 1990 and 1995 and rose slightly through 1997 before taking another downward turn. Figure 3-11 BURGLARY RATES 1990 -- 1999 2000 Rate Per 100,000 Population 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 1990 1991 Rural Cos. 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year Pima Co. 1996 1997 Arizona 1998 1999 Maricopa Co. Burglary Offense Projections: During the next five years, reported burglary offenses in Arizona are expected to decrease 5.5 percent. The largest drops could be seen in urban Maricopa and Pima Counties, while numbers may increase slightly in aggregated rural counties. See Table 3-25. Table 3-25: Burglary Offenses Projected, 2000-2004 2000 Rural Counties Maricopa County Pima County Arizona 9,212 34,387 8,694 52,293 2001 9,239 33,801 8,538 51,578 2002 9,266 33,215 8,382 50,863 2003 9,293 32,629 8,226 50,148 2004 9,320 32,043 8,070 49,433 Percent Change (2000-2004) 1.2% -6.8% -7.2% -5.5% Source: Arizona DPS, Research and Planning Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 55 Larceny-Theft Number of Larceny-Theft Offenses: Statewide larceny-theft totals remained fairly constant over the last 10 years. However, reported offense numbers varied greatly across counties with nine recording increases and six recording declines. See Table 3-26. Table 3-26: Larceny-Theft Offenses by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 265 3,028 4,369 902 463 59 343 4,156 1,742 3,410 757 2,373 3,474 25,341 101,206 44,439 170,986 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 394 2,471 5,649 1,428 618 61 198 4,872 2,100 5,346 618 4,387 3,022 31,164 116,140 38,601 185,905 1991 261 3,017 4,128 994 468 63 161 4,047 2,017 3,569 725 2,546 3,558 25,554 95,040 37,797 158,391 1997 399 3,252 5,641 1,334 619 57 509 4,508 2,066 4,037 742 4,499 1,752 29,415 118,330 39,518 187,263 1992 315 2,649 4,366 1,042 451 43 369 4,028 1,699 4,315 867 2,544 532 23,220 92,345 38,300 153,865 1998 341 3,180 4,977 1,215 607 57 614 4,287 1,889 3,613 725 4,311 950 26,766 114,477 37,497 178,740 1993 343 2,749 4,779 1,041 482 60 490 4,151 1,834 4,363 1,092 3,056 786 25,226 98,412 43,209 166,847 1999 396 2,668 4,705 744 602 73 496 3,857 1,831 3,968 577 4,392 1,664 25,973 103,435 35,844 165,252 1994 575 2,348 5,539 1,260 491 84 302 4,972 1,809 4,908 882 4,360 1,110 28,640 107,261 49,136 185,037 1995 540 2,974 5,755 1,399 592 74 329 5,442 2,099 5,514 713 4,995 1,359 31,785 120,414 50,675 202,874 Percent Change (1990-1999) 49.4% -11.9% 7.7% -17.5% 30.0% 23.7% 44.6% -7.2% 5.1% 16.4% -23.8% 85.1% -52.1% 2.5% 2.2% -19.3% -3.4% Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 56 Larceny-Theft Rates: While nine counties saw 10-year offense numbers rise, after population increases were considered, only four recorded increased larceny-theft rates. As shown in Table 3-27, Apache County usually had the lowest larceny-theft rate in the State. However, it must be remembered that Apache County population totals include residents of the Navajo Nation and that crimes reported to Native American law enforcement agencies are not reflected in Arizona UCR statistics. Table 3-27: Larceny-Theft Rates by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 430.2 3,086.6 4,508.8 2,238.2 1,734.1 737.5 2,467.6 4,356.4 2,242.0 2,919.5 2,531.8 2,187.1 3,213.7 2,873.5 4,750.6 6,647.6 4,645.3 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 611.1 2,150.1 4,978.2 3,152.3 1,983.9 705.2 1,087.9 3,815.2 2,491.1 3,708.6 1,763.2 3,259.3 2,418.6 2,976.7 4,408.2 4,944.1 4,166.1 1991 421.6 3,029.9 4,163.4 2,421.4 1,701.8 785.0 1,106.5 3,953.1 2,562.7 2,982.9 2,384.9 2,291.6 3,227.9 2,826.1 4,359.7 5,534.9 4,204.7 1997 608.7 2,717.9 4,801.9 2,811.4 1,900.2 642.3 2,887.9 3,375.5 2,315.5 2,684.6 2,041.3 3,166.6 1,355.3 2,698.5 4,349.4 5,004.5 4,070.7 1992 500.4 2,618.2 4,307.8 2,498.8 1,628.2 515.0 2,489.0 3,809.9 2,111.1 3,519.6 2,792.3 2,229.4 471.5 2,510.7 4,134.2 5,469.4 3,987.3 1998 513.9 2,569.7 4,092.1 2,470.8 1,749.3 624.7 3,231.6 3,092.5 2,042.2 2,291.4 1,918.0 2,903.0 702.7 2,360.3 4,079.6 4,551.2 3,751.9 1993 544.0 2,660.5 4,564.5 2,455.2 1,639.5 716.4 3,151.1 3,641.2 2,273.3 3,429.4 3,463.9 2,581.1 675.0 2,641.3 4,295.2 6,063.6 4,214.5 1999 591.5 2,141.7 3,830.7 1,483.5 1,683.9 791.3 2,576.6 2,698.6 1,960.4 2,399.0 1,475.7 2,817.2 1,191.6 2,229.3 3,550.2 4,238.0 3,355.8 1994 908.7 2,169.6 5,152.6 2,906.6 1,603.3 997.0 1,878.7 4,132.1 2,212.8 3,711.9 2,722.2 3,530.4 927.7 2,900.8 4,552.9 6,745.5 4,544.5 1995 847.1 2,655.4 5,196.4 3,142.1 1,970.0 868.0 1,970.1 4,348.4 2,532.7 3,966.9 2,080.2 3,833.5 1,114.2 3,116.6 4,761.9 6,680.3 4,710.2 Percent Change (1990-1999) 37.5% -30.6% -15.0% -33.7% -2.9% 7.3% 4.4% -38.1% -12.6% -17.8% -41.7% 28.8% -62.9% -22.4% -25.3% -36.2% -27.8% Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 57 Figure 3-12 shows Arizona larceny-theft rates on the decline since 1995. Although Pima County witnessed an impressive 10-year decline, it still had the highest larceny-theft rate in the State. Figure 3-12 LARCENY-THEFT RATES 1990 -- 1999 7000 Rate Per 100,000 Population 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year 1996 Pima Co. 1997 1998 Arizona 1999 Rural Cos. Maricopa Co. Larceny-Theft Offense Projections: Projections suggest that statewide larceny-theft offense numbers may grow 4.3 percent in the next five years, as shown in Table 3-28. Pima County could buck that trend with a projected 5.4 percent drop in reported offenses. Table 3-28: Larceny-Theft Offenses Projected, 2000-2004 2000 Rural Counties Maricopa County Pima County Arizona 29,512 118,452 38,647 186,611 2001 29,913 120,588 38,128 188,628 2002 30,313 122,723 37,608 190,645 2003 30,714 124,859 37,089 192,662 2004 31,115 126,995 36,570 194,679 Percent Change (2000-2004) 5.4% 7.2% -5.4% 4.3% Source: Arizona DPS, Research and Planning Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 58 Motor Vehicle Theft Number of Motor Vehicle Theft Offenses: While Maricopa and Pima Counties contain approximately three-fourths of Arizona's population, 93.5 percent of reported motor vehicle offenses occurred in these two counties in 1999. Between 1990 and 1999, offense numbers rose in nine counties with a statewide increase of 20.1 percent. During the same period, reported vehicle thefts in Pima County doubled. See Table 3-29. Table 3-29: Motor Vehicle Theft Offenses by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 12 313 169 62 14 1 39 433 100 344 219 163 324 2,193 26,029 3,268 31,490 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 32 339 221 93 22 0 31 523 133 629 250 286 385 2,944 29,809 7,853 40,606 1991 15 418 197 74 26 3 27 493 109 300 214 199 307 2,382 25,309 4,428 32,119 1997 22 467 237 78 30 0 86 463 111 445 271 387 292 2,835 31,215 8,874 42,924 1992 19 423 178 59 21 3 39 385 113 492 236 141 61 2,170 22,952 5,727 30,849 1998 11 367 225 87 43 0 35 434 105 356 225 341 169 2,398 29,598 7,609 39,605 1993 16 368 208 81 29 3 76 490 97 434 295 265 62 2,424 24,534 6,416 33,374 1999 17 391 242 57 32 1 31 400 121 470 130 282 293 2,467 28,814 6,543 37,824 1994 23 264 209 70 33 2 48 560 99 511 237 329 102 2,487 32,147 7,286 41,920 1995 20 373 285 100 46 0 51 628 133 617 232 415 141 3,041 37,525 7,453 48,019 Percent Change (1990-1999) 41.7% 24.9% 43.2% -8.1% 128.6% 0.0% -20.5% -7.6% 21.0% 36.6% -40.6% 73.0% -9.6% 12.5% 10.7% 100.2% 20.1% Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 59 Motor Vehicle Theft Rates: In the last decade, Arizona's motor vehicle theft rate fell 10.2 percent as shown in Table 3-30. In Maricopa County, the decline was twice as great but remained the highest rate in the State. In Pima County, the motor vehicle theft rate rose 58.2 percent over 10 years giving that county the second highest rate in the State in 1999. Table 3-30: Motor Vehicle Rates by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 19.5 319.1 174.4 153.8 52.4 12.5 280.6 453.9 128.7 294.5 732.4 150.2 299.7 248.7 1,221.8 488.9 855.5 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 49.6 295.0 194.8 205.3 70.6 0.0 170.3 409.6 157.8 436.4 713.3 212.5 308.1 281.2 1,131.4 1,005.8 910.0 1991 24.2 419.8 198.7 180.3 94.5 37.4 185.6 481.6 138.5 250.7 703.9 179.1 278.5 263.4 1,161.0 648.4 852.6 1997 33.6 390.3 201.7 164.4 92.1 0.0 487.9 346.7 124.4 295.9 597.0 272.4 225.9 260.1 1,147.4 1,123.8 933.1 1992 30.2 418.1 175.6 141.5 75.8 35.9 263.1 364.2 140.4 401.3 760.1 123.6 54.1 234.6 1,027.5 817.8 799.4 1998 16.6 296.6 185.0 176.9 123.9 0.0 184.2 313.1 113.5 225.8 595.2 229.6 125.0 211.5 1,054.8 923.5 831.3 1993 25.4 356.2 198.7 191.0 98.6 35.8 488.7 429.8 120.2 341.1 935.8 223.8 53.2 253.8 1,070.8 900.4 843.0 1999 25.4 313.9 197.0 113.7 89.5 10.8 161.0 279.9 129.6 284.2 332.5 180.9 209.8 211.7 989.0 773.6 768.1 1994 36.3 243.9 194.4 161.5 107.8 23.7 298.6 465.4 121.1 386.5 731.5 266.4 85.2 251.9 1,364.5 1,000.2 1,029.6 1995 31.4 333.0 257.3 224.6 153.1 0.0 305.4 501.8 160.5 443.9 676.9 318.5 115.6 298.2 1,484.0 982.5 1,114.9 Percent Change (1990-1999) 30.3% -1.6% 13.0% -26.1% 70.7% -13.3% -42.6% -38.3% 0.7% -3.5% -54.6% 20.4% -30.0% -14.8% -19.1% 58.2% -10.2% Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 60 Figure 3-13 compares the motor vehicle theft rates of Maricopa and Pima Counties, aggregated rural counties and the State for the years 1990 through 1999. As shown below, motor vehicle theft rates are substantially lower in the rural counties. Figure 3-13 MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT RATES 1990 -- 1999 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 Rate Per 100,000 Population Rural Cos. Maricopa Co. Pima Co. Arizona Motor Vehicle Theft Offense Projections: As shown in Table 3-31, motor vehicle theft offenses reported statewide may increase 10.8 percent by 2004 . Pima County could see the largest increase (19.5 percent) while rural counties might see the smallest growth (6.9 percent). Table 3-31: Motor Vehicle Theft Offenses Projected, 2000-2004 2000 Rural Counties Maricopa County Pima County Arizona 2,801 32,713 8,944 44,459 2001 2,850 33,426 9,380 45,656 2002 2,899 34,139 9,816 46,854 2003 2,947 34,852 10,252 48,051 2004 2,996 35,564 10,689 49,249 Percent Change (2000-2004) 6.9% 8.7% 19.5% 10.8% Source: Arizona DPS, Research and Planning Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 61 Arson Number of Arson Offenses: In 1999, 1,272 arson offenses were reported, reflecting a 19.6 percent drop since 1990. Maricopa County reported a 39.4 percent reduction in comparison to 1990 figures. Five counties experienced increases in reported arson crimes, including Pima County with a 19.2 percent jump in numbers. See Table 3-32. Table 3-32: Arson Offenses by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 1 34 16 6 1 0 8 37 16 62 4 33 37 255 963 365 1,583 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 0 12 40 10 5 0 1 71 26 32 8 41 21 267 730 376 1,373 1991 2 28 29 15 1 0 6 33 11 52 8 35 25 245 932 295 1,472 1997 0 9 69 7 1 0 5 53 15 40 2 44 13 258 670 374 1,302 1992 1 15 14 10 1 0 9 30 21 56 4 17 4 182 708 322 1,212 1998 3 19 28 8 4 0 2 43 32 18 3 47 2 209 673 367 1,249 1993 0 28 14 10 1 0 5 52 17 41 5 30 1 204 673 288 1,165 1999 2 13 41 3 1 0 6 35 41 47 3 48 13 253 584 435 1,272 1994 3 29 19 7 0 0 8 67 25 46 9 55 5 273 793 259 1,325 1995 4 25 37 12 3 0 6 76 12 54 8 45 4 286 799 447 1,532 Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999 Percent Change (1990-1999) 100.0% -61.8% 156.3% -50.0% 0.0% 0.0% -25.0% -5.4% 156.3% -24.2% -25.0% 45.5% -64.9% -0.8% -39.4% 19.2% -19.6% Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 62 Arson Rates: From 1990 to 1999, Arizona experienced an overall 39.9 percent decrease in the arson rate. However, rates vary widely by county as shown in Table 3-33. At 51.4 arson crimes per 100,000 population, Pima County had the highest rate in 1999. Table 3-33: Arson Rates by County, 1990-1999 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 1990 1.6 34.7 16.5 14.9 3.7 0.0 57.6 38.8 20.6 53.1 13.4 30.4 34.2 28.9 45.2 54.6 43.0 1996 Apache County Cochise County Coconino County Gila County Graham County Greenlee County La Paz County Mohave County Navajo County Pinal County Santa Cruz County Yavapai County Yuma County Rural Counties (Subtotal) Maricopa County Pima County Arizona Totals 0.0 10.4 35.3 22.1 16.1 0.0 5.5 55.6 30.8 22.2 22.8 30.5 16.8 25.5 27.7 48.2 30.8 1991 3.2 28.1 29.2 36.5 3.6 0.0 41.2 32.2 14.0 43.5 26.3 31.5 22.7 27.1 42.8 43.2 39.1 1997 0.0 7.5 58.7 14.8 3.1 0.0 28.4 39.7 16.8 26.6 5.5 31.0 10.1 23.7 24.6 47.4 28.3 1992 1.6 14.8 13.8 24.0 3.6 0.0 60.7 28.4 26.1 45.7 12.9 14.9 3.5 19.7 31.7 46.0 31.4 1998 4.5 15.4 23.0 16.3 11.5 0.0 10.5 31.0 34.6 11.4 7.9 31.6 1.5 18.4 24.0 44.5 26.2 1993 0.0 27.1 13.4 23.6 3.4 0.0 32.2 45.6 22.1 32.2 15.9 25.3 0.9 21.4 29.4 40.4 29.4 1999 3.0 10.4 33.4 6.0 2.8 0.0 31.2 24.5 43.9 28.4 7.7 30.8 9.3 21.7 20.0 51.4 25.8 1994 4.7 26.8 17.7 16.1 0.0 0.0 49.8 55.7 30.6 34.8 27.8 44.5 4.2 27.7 33.7 35.6 32.5 1995 6.3 22.3 33.4 27.0 10.0 0.0 35.9 60.7 14.5 38.8 23.3 34.5 3.3 28.0 31.6 58.9 35.6 Percent Change (1990-1999) 84.0% -69.9% 102.2% -59.8% -25.3% 0.0% -45.8% -36.9% 113.2% -46.5% -42.6% 1.2% -72.8% -24.9% -55.7% -5.8% -39.9% Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 63 Figure 3-14 shows that Arizona arson rates did not follow an established pattern over the last 10-year span. However, Maricopa and Pima Counties, the State and aggregated rural counties all ended the decade with rates 55.7 to 5.8 percent lower than in 1990. Figure 3-14 ARSON RATES 1990 -- 1999 60 Rate Per 100,000 Population 50 40 30 20 10 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 Rural Cos. Maricopa Co. Pima Co. Arizona Arson Offense Projections: While county fluctuations may vary widely, the number of arson crimes reported in Arizona is projected to decrease 6 percent by 2004. Maricopa County might realize a 22 percent reduction in five years, but Pima County projections indicate a possible 10.8 percent rise in arson offenses. Table 3-34: Arson Offenses Projected, 2000-2004 2000 Rural Counties Maricopa County Pima County Arizona 254 578 414 1,246 2001 255 546 426 1,227 2002 257 514 437 1,209 2003 259 483 448 1,190 2004 261 451 459 1,171 Percent Change (2000-2004) 3.0% -22.0% 10.8% -6.0% Source: Arizona DPS, Research and Planning Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 64 Adult and Juvenile Arrests Table 3-35, (continued on page 66) shows Arizona arrests for Part I and Part II offenses from 1990 to 1999. Most juvenile arrests for Part I offenses in 1999 were for property crimes. Juveniles were the offenders in 62.2 percent of arson arrests, 39.7 percent of burglary arrests, 32.6 percent of motor vehicle arrests and 29.1 percent of larceny-theft arrests. For 1999 Part I violent crimes, juveniles accounted for 10.7 percent of murder arrests, 17.9 percent of rape arrests, 21.4 percent of all robbery arrests, and 22 percent of aggravated assault arrests. Table 3-35: Adult and Juvenile Arrests, 1990-1999 Adult Arrests Part One Offenses Murder Rape Robbery Assault Burglary Larceny-Theft Motor Vehicle Theft Arson Part I Offenses Subtotal Part II Offenses Total Adult Arrests Juvenile Arrests Part 1 Offenses Murder Rape Robbery Assault Burglary Larceny-Theft Motor Vehicle Theft Arson Part I Offenses Subtotal Part II Offenses Total Juvenile Arrests Total Combined Arrests 1990 187 306 1,228 6,087 4,452 27,565 1,123 134 41,082 154,173 195,255 1991 218 347 1,233 6,140 4,489 25,443 1,203 172 39,245 160,330 199,575 1992 187 285 1,134 5,800 4,038 23,208 1,433 129 36,214 157,720 193,934 1993 214 258 1,088 6,012 3,877 23,745 1,466 133 36,793 157,595 194,388 1994 260 212 1,084 5,774 3,592 24,927 1,810 128 37,787 169,552 207,339 1995 264 225 1,112 5,992 3,604 29,078 2,041 136 42,452 190,303 232,755 19 68 437 1,404 3,656 12,995 1,530 289 20,398 32,698 53,096 248,351 31 78 490 1,524 4,007 12,982 1,882 201 21,195 33,572 54,767 254,342 45 68 473 1,636 3,602 11,329 2,028 210 19,391 33,700 53,091 247,025 46 39 495 1,694 3,326 11,348 1,792 235 18,975 42,074 61,049 255,437 69 34 435 1,734 2,899 11,354 1,608 302 18,435 46,212 64,647 271,986 43 41 553 1,725 2,571 12,155 1,782 327 19,197 49,545 68,742 301,497 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 65 Table 3-35: Adult and Juvenile Arrests, 1990-1999 (continued) 1996 Adult Arrests Part One Offenses Murder Rape Robbery Assault Burglary Larceny-Theft Motor Vehicle Theft Arson Part I Offenses Subtotal Part II Offenses Total Adult Arrests Juvenile Arrests Part 1 Offenses Murder Rape Robbery Assault Burglary Larceny-Theft Motor Vehicle Theft Arson Part I Offenses Subtotal Part II Offenses Total Juvenile Arrests Total Combined Arrests 1997 1998 1999 Percent Change (1990-1999) 16.6% -52.0% -10.7% -19.8% -35.7% -15.1% 107.8% -21.6% -14.7% 22.6% 14.7% 214 228 1,173 5,738 3,383 28,241 1,598 137 40,712 201,376 242,088 210 243 240 184 1,233 1,162 5,651 5,205 3,376 3,395 26,828 26,290 1,852 1,936 136 144 39,526 38,559 194,077 195,684 233,603 234,243 218 147 1,096 4,879 2,861 23,390 2,334 105 35,030 188,949 223,979 46 38 486 1,669 2,962 12,544 1,599 280 19,624 53,422 73,046 315,134 32 59 456 1,628 2,770 11,947 1,537 213 18,642 50,851 69,493 31 34 406 1,469 2,313 10,514 1,199 181 16,147 48,272 64,419 26 32 299 1,372 1,887 9,596 1,130 173 14,515 44,173 58,688 282,667 36.8% -52.9% -31.6% -2.3% -48.4% -26.2% -26.1% -40.1% -28.8% 35.1% 10.5% 13.8% 303,096 298,662 Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999 Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 66 Table 3-36 shows that in 1999, juvenile offenders accounted for about one-third of Part I offense arrests and 20.8 percent of all arrests (combined Part I and Part II offenses). Table 3-36: Arrest Distribution by Age, 1990-1999 All Arrests Percent Juvenile Arrests Percent Adult Arrests Part I Arrests Percent Juvenile Percent Adult 1990 21.4% 78.6% 33.2% 66.8% 1996 All Arrests Percent Juvenile Arrests Percent Adult Arrests Part I Arrests Percent Juvenile Percent Adult 23.2% 76.8% 32.5% 67.5% 1991 21.5% 78.5% 35.1% 64.9% 1997 22.9% 77.1% 32.0% 68.0% 1992 21.5% 78.5% 34.9% 65.1% 1998 21.6% 78.4% 29.5% 70.5% 1993 23.9% 76.1% 34.0% 66.0% 1999 20.8% 79.2% 29.3% 70.7% 1994 23.8% 76.2% 32.8% 67.2% 1995 22.8% 77.2% 31.1% 68.9% Percent Change (1990-1999) -2.9% 0.8% -11.7% 5.8% Source: Crime in Arizona reports, 1990-1999 Figure 3-15 provides a visual interpretation of juvenile arrests in proportion to adult arrests in Arizona. It also shows that the overall number of arrests has declined since 1996. Figure 3-15 ARIZONA ARRESTS 1990 - 1999 301,497 350 315,134 303,096 300 250 248,351 21.4% 298,662 271,986 254,342 21.5% 282,667 20.8% 247,025 255,437 23.8% 23.2% 22.8% 22.9% 21.6% Thousands 200 150 100 50 21.5% 23.9% 78.6% 78.5% 78.5% 76.1% 76.2% 77.2% 76.8% 77.1% 78.4% 79.2% 1990 1991 1992 1993 Adult Arrests 1994 1995 Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 Juvenile Arrests Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 67 Section Four: Conclusion According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Arizona was the second fastest growing state in the nation in 1999, experiencing a 30.4 percent increase in population over the last 10 years. With this explosive growth, a rise in crime could be expected. Yet an analysis of Crime in the United States data showed crime rates falling in Arizona for the Crime Index offenses of rape (-29.3 percent), robbery (-5.2 percent), aggravated assault (-18.3 percent), burglary (-38.1 percent), larceny-theft (-25.4 percent) and motor vehicle theft (-7.3 percent). From 1990 to 1999, only Arizona's murder rate rose (+ 3.9 percent). However, when compared nationally, the State's declining crime rates were less impressive. With the exception of rape, burglary and larceny-theft rates, nationwide 10-year drops in crime rates exceeded those reported in Arizona. In 1999 rankings of all the states and the District of Columbia, Arizona had the third highest property crime rate, the sixth highest burglary rate, the fourth highest larceny-theft rate and the second highest vehicle theft rate in the nation. Arizona rates for murder, burglary, and larceny theft were at least 30 percent higher than the 1999 national rate, while vehicle theft rates soared 90.3 percent higher. Examining statistics at the county level provided additional insight into Arizona crime. Crime in Arizona data illustrated the impact on crime rates of the State's two most heavily populated counties. For example, while Maricopa and Pima Counties made up 76.3 percent of the State's population in 1999, they accounted for 85.6 percent of the total volume of Crime Index offenses reported, 89.6 percent of the murders and 93.5 percent of reported vehicle thefts. Outside the urban areas, trends were harder to generalize because county by county fluctuations did not follow a prescribed pattern. In this report, offense numbers and rates for rural counties were aggregated to illustrate rural trends. But variations between counties were often great. For instance, the violent crime rate for aggregated rural counties fell 10.6 percent over the decade, but it increased 52.9 percent in Cochise County, 38 percent in Apache County and 20 percent in Navajo County. Correspondingly, the fluctuations in the actual number of Crime Index offenses reported over the last 10 years provided a basis for projecting what Arizona crime may look like in the future. Five-year projections suggested statewide totals for the following offenses could increase: murder (+ 11.1 percent), robbery (+ 10.3 percent), aggravated assault (+ 1.3 percent), larceny-theft (+ 4.3 percent) and vehicle theft (+ 10.8 percent). Similarly, reported statewide totals for the following offenses may decline: rape (- 6.1 percent), burglary (- 5.5 percent) and arson (- 6 percent). This report also briefly looked at a 10-year history of adult and juvenile arrests in Arizona. Over that time span, the percentage of juvenile arrests in proportion to adult arrests remained fairly constant, ranging from a low of 20.8 percent of all arrests in 1999 to a high of 23.9 percent of all arrests in 1993. Although youth concentration is a factor known to affect crime, no attempt was made to relate it to the trend data presented in this report. Crime Trends in Arizona: 1990-1999 and Beyond Page 69 |