Arizona highway user revenue fund forecasting process & results 2003-2012 |
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ARIZONA HIGHWAY USER REVENUE FUND
Forecasting Process & Results
FY 2003-2012
Arizona Department of Transportation
November 2002
Financial Management Services
November 2002 1
ARIZONA HIGHWAY USER REVENUE FUND
OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATE
RISK ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED VALUES
as of November 2002
Introduction
This document presents the Arizona Department of Transportation’s (Department) forecast of
expected values for the Arizona Highway User Revenue Fund for the period FY 2003-2012.
Background
The State of Arizona taxes motor fuels and collects a variety of fees relating to the registration and
operation of motor vehicles in the state. These collections include gasoline and use fuel taxes,
motor carrier fees, vehicle license taxes, motor vehicle registration fees, and other miscellaneous
fees. These revenues are deposited in the Arizona Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) and are
then distributed to the cities, towns and counties of the State and to the State Highway Fund, which
is administered by the Department. These taxes and fees represent the primary source of revenues
available to the state for highway construction, improvements and other related expenses.
Since 1986, the Department has estimated Highway Revenues for the State using a comprehensive
regression-based econometric model. In 1989, the model was updated by Dr. Alberta Charney of
the University of Arizona. The model relied on the estimates of certain “independent variables” to
predict future tax revenues. The model’s revenue forecast was highly dependent on estimates of
the independent variables. Any variability between estimated and actual values could lead to
variances in the tax forecast. In order to deal with this variability, the Department introduced the
Risk Analysis Process (RAP) in 1992. The RAP relies upon probability analysis and the
independent evaluation of the model’s variables by an expert panel of economists. This results in a
series of forecasts with specified probabilities of occurrence, rather than a single or “best guess”
estimate.
In 1997, Hickling Lewis Brod Inc. (HLB), working in conjunction with Dr. Dennis Hoffman of
Arizona State University, developed a new forecasting model to incorporate certain economic data
generated over the past ten years and evaluate the inclusion of independent variables absent from
the 1989 model, to enhance the model’s forecasting accuracy. HLB also eliminated independent
variables that were either not significant to the model or were not readily available.
The new model also took into consideration 1997 legislation (SB 1144 and SB 1398) which
eliminated the weight distance tax on motor carriers, increased weight and use fees for use class
vehicles, and changed the point of taxation on fuel. In September 2000, HLB reviewed the model
and updated the equations. The independent variables contained in the updated model include:
· Arizona real income growth per capita
· Arizona population growth
· Arizona wage & salary employment growth
· Arizona fleet fuel efficiency
November 2002 2
Risk Analysis Panel
The Risk Analysis Process relies heavily on the judgments of an expert panel of economists to
provide information critical to the forecasting process. In September 2002, an expert panel of
eleven economists representing public, private, and academic sectors submitted their individual
estimates of the model’s independent variables and comments on the future economic outlook.
The information gathered from the panelists was input into the updated model to produce a series
of forecasts with associated probabilities of occurrence. The panelists’ inputs are reflected in the
attached tables at the back of this report.
Model Results
This year’s RAP panel inputs resulted in a mean forecast of $13,414.0 million for the period FY
2003-2012. The average compound growth rate associated with the forecast was 4.2 percent.
The Department’s Official Forecast totals $13,442.7 million for the period of FY 2003-2012 with
an average compound growth rate of 4.3 percent. The Official Forecast incorporates the 50
percent confidence interval for each year of the forecast. The FY 2003 forecast of $1,107.7
million was developed independently of the econometric model using time-series techniques,
historical and projected growth rates from the model, and recent legislative changes.
FY 2003 Official Forecast
(Dollars in Millions)
Fiscal Mean Official Confidence
Year Forecast Forecast Level
2003 $1,107.9 $1,107.7 N/A
2004 $1,150.1 $1,151.1 50%
2005 $1,197.8 $1,199.5 50%
2006 $1,248.7 $1,249.8 50%
2007 $1,302.9 $1,305.0 50%
2008 $1,359.2 $1,361.6 50%
2009 $1,417.7 $1,421.4 50%
2010 $1,478.5 $1,484.5 50%
2011 $1,541.9 $1,546.5 50%
2012 $1,609.3 $1,615.6 50%
Total $13,414.0 $13,442.7
Avg. CGR 4.2% 4.3%
A comparison of the December 2001 Official Forecast with the November 2002 Official Forecast
is shown below:
November 2002 3
FY 2003 Comparative Forecast
(Dollars in Millions)
Dec. 01 Nov. 02
Fiscal Official Official
Year Forecast Forecast Difference
2003 $1,102.0 $1,107.7 $5.7
2004 $1,148.5 $1,151.1 $2.6
2005 $1,199.4 $1,199.5 $0.1
2006 $1,256.2 $1,249.8 ($6.4)
2007 $1,316.8 $1,305.0 ($11.8)
2008 $1,375.7 $1,361.6 ($14.1)
2009 $1,441.8 $1,421.4 ($20.4)
2010 $1,509.6 $1,484.5 ($25.1)
2011 $1,581.6 $1,546.5 ($35.1)
2012 $1,656.5 $1,615.6 ($40.9)
Total $13,588.1 $13,442.7 ($145.4)
Avg. CGR 4.6% 4.3%
Summary
The panel believes that the economy will continue to grow but at a slower pace. They forecasted
lower growth rates for Arizona real income per capita and Arizona wage and salary employment
during FY 2003-2012. However, they believe the Arizona population growth rate will remain
about the same. For FY 2003-2012, there was a $145.4 million decrease in HURF revenue
forecast, which was due mainly to the panel’s more conservative view of Arizona’s long term
economic outlook.
Supplementary Information
The remaining pages of this report present supplementary information on the detailed results of the
Risk Analysis Process, the Department’s model and the values of the independent variables
forecast by the expert panel. While the Official Forecast period is FY 2003-2012, panel inputs
were requested for FY 2003-2008, 2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026. Data displayed for other than
the requested years, has been extrapolated.
November 2002 4
Fiscal Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Percentile Actual 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%
Gasoline Tax $434.8 $447.9 $460.2 $474.5 $489.0 $504.2 $520.3 $536.2 $553.4 $569.8 $588.8
Use Fuel Tax 161.5 166.4 171.0 176.9 182.8 189.5 195.9 203.1 210.6 217.8 225.7
Motor Carrier Fee 29.3 31.8 32.8 33.9 34.7 35.8 36.8 38.0 39.1 40.1 41.3
Vehicle License Tax 270.7 281.1 300.3 320.5 343.3 368.3 394.0 421.4 450.8 480.5 512.8
Registration 138.2 137.9 142.3 147.0 151.0 155.6 160.4 165.6 170.5 175.2 180.5
Other 41.9 42.6 44.5 46.7 49.0 51.6 54.2 57.1 60.1 63.1 66.5
Total $1,076.4 $1,107.7 $1,151.1 $1,199.5 $1,249.8 $1,305.0 $1,361.6 $1,421.4 $1,484.5 $1,546.5 $1,615.6
HURF OFFICIAL REVENUE FORECAST
With Category Detail and Confidence Interval By Fiscal Year
November 2002 5
Fiscal Year Mean 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
2003 $1,107.9 $1,138.6 $1,125.2 $1,118.5 $1,112.0 $1,107.7 $1,103.3 $1,097.0 $1,090.1 $1,079.3
2004 1,150.1 1,192.6 1,176.0 1,166.0 1,157.1 1,151.1 1,143.8 1,135.3 1,124.2 1,109.9
2005 1,197.8 1,246.6 1,229.1 1,218.2 1,207.8 1,199.5 1,189.9 1,179.4 1,167.4 1,150.8
2006 1,248.7 1,307.8 1,285.0 1,272.9 1,262.1 1,249.8 1,239.3 1,226.9 1,215.3 1,195.0
2007 1,302.9 1,367.9 1,347.8 1,330.9 1,320.6 1,305.0 1,292.0 1,279.6 1,265.7 1,240.6
2008 1,359.2 1,434.7 1,409.2 1,392.1 1,375.5 1,361.6 1,348.9 1,335.7 1,317.7 1,287.9
2009 1,417.7 1,504.8 1,476.9 1,453.5 1,435.7 1,421.4 1,407.9 1,389.8 1,370.7 1,341.9
2010 1,478.5 1,573.5 1,544.8 1,517.4 1,497.7 1,484.5 1,464.7 1,447.4 1,428.3 1,393.0
2011 1,541.9 1,651.9 1,614.5 1,586.3 1,567.9 1,546.5 1,528.9 1,506.9 1,486.2 1,447.6
2012 1,609.3 1,726.9 1,684.7 1,662.9 1,639.6 1,615.6 1,593.1 1,569.3 1,546.4 1,503.9
HURF TOTAL TAX REVENUE RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS
(Current Dollars in Millions)
November 2002 6
OFFICIAL FORECAST RESULTS
(Current Dollars in Millions)
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
$1,500
$1,600
$1,700
$1,800
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Millions of Current Dollars
Official Mean 80% Conf. 20% Conf.
Fiscal Official Mean 80% Conf. 20% Conf.
Year Forecast Forecast Interval Interval
2003 $1,107.7 $1,107.9 $1,090.1 $1,125.2
2004 1,151.1 1,150.1 1,124.2 1,176.0
2005 1,199.5 1,197.8 1,167.4 1,229.1
2006 1,249.8 1,248.7 1,215.3 1,285.0
2007 1,305.0 1,302.9 1,265.7 1,347.8
2008 1,361.6 1,359.2 1,317.7 1,409.2
2009 1,421.4 1,417.7 1,370.7 1,476.9
2010 1,484.5 1,478.5 1,428.3 1,544.8
2011 1,546.5 1,541.9 1,486.2 1,614.5
2012 1,615.6 1,609.3 1,546.4 1,684.7
Total $13,442.7 $13,414.0 $13,012.0 $13,893.2
November 2002 7
ARIZONA POPULATION GROWTH
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Fiscal Year
Growth Rate Median Lower 10% Upper 10%
ARIZONA REAL INCOME PER CAPITA
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Fiscal Year
Growth Rate
Median Lower 10% Upper 10%
November 2002 8
ARIZONA WAGE & SALARY EMPLOYMENT
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Fiscal Year
Growth Rate
Median Lower 10% Upper 10%
November 2002 9
PANELIST MEAN DATA VALUES
Income Population Wage & Salary
Growth Growth Employment
FY 2003
Upper 10% 1.93 2.80 2.50
Lower 10% -0.36 1.77 0.35
Median 1.13 2.32 1.59
FY 2004
Upper 10% 1.89 2.90 3.53
Lower 10% -0.17 1.75 0.54
Median 1.05 2.35 2.47
FY 2005
Upper 10% 2.22 3.07 3.74
Lower 10% -0.15 1.83 1.02
Median 1.25 2.45 2.68
FY 2006
Upper 10% 2.39 3.20 3.91
Lower 10% 0.24 1.82 1.16
Median 1.40 2.50 3.02
FY 2007
Upper 10% 2.40 3.16 4.09
Lower 10% 0.31 1.80 1.33
Median 1.30 2.52 3.05
FY 2008
Upper 10% 2.38 3.18 4.11
Lower 10% 0.14 1.79 1.44
Median 1.19 2.48 3.07
FY 2011
Upper 10% 2.33 3.22 4.03
Lower 10% 0.04 1.66 1.16
Median 1.14 2.35 2.89
FY 2016
Upper 10% 2.37 3.18 4.03
Lower 10% -0.05 1.59 1.11
Median 1.06 2.22 2.80
FY 2021
Upper 10% 2.35 3.15 4.06
Lower 10% -0.18 1.51 1.04
Median 1.03 2.12 2.75
FY 2026
Upper 10% 2.37 3.15 4.04
Lower 10% -0.26 1.45 0.95
Median 1.00 2.08 2.66
All data in the above table are percentage growth rates.
November 2002 10
ARIZONA REAL PER CAPITA INCOME GROWTH
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2011 2016 2021 2026
Panelist 1
Upper 10% 1.10 1.50 1.90 2.30 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20
Lower 10% -0.50 -0.70 -0.70 -0.30 0.00 -0.50 -0.70 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00
Median 0.30 0.30 0.50 0.80 0.50 0.30 0.30 0.40 0.40 0.40
Panelist 2
Upper 10% 1.25 1.25 1.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
Lower 10% -1.00 -1.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Median 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.50 1.25 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.50 0.50
Panelist 3
Upper 10% 2.50 2.50 3.50 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
Lower 10% -4.00 -1.50 -3.00 -2.00 -2.00 -3.00 -3.00 -3.00 -3.00 -3.00
Median 1.50 1.70 1.50 1.30 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Panelist 4
Upper 10% 3.00 3.10 3.10 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.50 3.50 3.50
Lower 10% 1.00 1.10 1.10 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60
Median 3.00 2.10 2.10 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.90 1.90 1.80 1.70
Panelist 5
Upper 10% 1.60 1.70 1.90 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.10 2.00 1.90 2.10
Lower 10% 0.70 0.80 0.60 0.60 0.50 0.30 0.10 0.00 -0.70 -0.90
Median 1.20 1.40 1.40 1.30 1.30 1.10 1.00 0.70 0.60 0.50
Panelist 6
Upper 10% 1.00 1.00 1.20 1.50 1.50 1.70 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
Lower 10% -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30
Median 0.00 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80
Panelist 7
Upper 10% 2.60 2.10 2.20 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10
Lower 10% 0.00 -0.50 -0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Median 1.00 0.50 0.90 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80
Panelist 8
Upper 10% 2.00 2.00 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 1.90 1.90 1.80 1.80
Lower 10% 1.50 1.30 1.40 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.20 0.80 0.80 0.80
Median 1.80 1.70 1.90 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.60 1.50 1.40 1.30
Panelist 9
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median 1.10 1.00 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.50
Panelist 10
Upper 10% 3.00 2.50 2.30 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.60 1.60 1.60 1.60
Lower 10% 0.50 0.30 0.00 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.40 -0.40 -0.40 -0.40
Median 1.00 1.30 1.50 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.00 0.80 0.80 0.80
Panelist 11
Upper 10% 1.25 1.25 2.50 2.90 3.20 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90
Lower 10% -0.75 -0.50 0.50 2.00 2.20 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75
Median 1.00 1.00 1.75 2.50 2.60 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20
All data in the above table are percentage growth rates.
November 2002 11
ARIZONA POPULATION GROWTH
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2011 2016 2021 2026
Panelist 1
Upper 10% 3.30 3.30 3.50 3.90 3.70 3.60 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50
Lower 10% 1.70 1.60 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.80 1.50 1.50 1.40 1.40
Median 2.30 2.20 2.50 2.70 3.00 2.70 2.30 2.10 2.00 2.00
Panelist 2
Upper 10% 2.30 2.75 3.25 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50
Lower 10% 1.00 1.20 1.20 1.50 2.00 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25
Median 1.80 2.20 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.00 2.90 2.90 2.75 2.75
Panelist 3
Upper 10% 2.50 2.60 2.70 2.80 2.90 2.90 3.00 3.00 3.10 3.20
Lower 10% 1.80 1.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80
Median 2.30 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.10 2.00 1.70 1.70 1.70
Panelist 4
Upper 10% 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.80 2.80 2.80 2.80
Lower 10% 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.60
Median 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30
Panelist 5
Upper 10% 2.50 2.60 2.60 2.80 3.00 3.10 3.40 3.50 3.60 3.70
Lower 10% 2.00 1.80 1.70 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.00 0.60 0.50 0.30
Median 2.30 2.20 2.20 2.10 2.10 2.00 1.90 1.60 1.50 1.40
Panelist 6
Upper 10% 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
Lower 10% 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
Median 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.20 2.20 2.00 2.00
Panelist 7
Upper 10% 3.80 3.90 4.40 4.40 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90
Lower 10% 2.00 2.10 2.60 2.60 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10
Median 2.90 3.00 3.50 3.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
Panelist 8
Upper 10% 2.40 2.50 2.60 2.90 3.20 3.30 3.00 2.80 2.70 2.60
Lower 10% 1.90 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.10 2.00 1.80 1.70 1.70 1.60
Median 2.20 2.20 2.40 2.50 2.50 2.40 2.10 2.00 1.90 1.80
Panelist 9
Upper 10% 2.30 2.50 2.40 2.40 2.50 2.60
Lower 10% 1.80 1.90 1.90 1.80 1.80 1.90
Median 2.00 2.20 2.10 2.10 2.20 2.30
Panelist 10
Upper 10% 3.00 2.90 2.80 2.80 2.70 2.70 2.60 2.50 2.40 2.30
Lower 10% 2.00 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.70 1.70 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80
Median 2.50 2.40 2.30 2.30 2.20 2.20 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.60
Panelist 11
Upper 10% 2.75 2.80 3.50 3.80 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.25 3.00 3.00
Lower 10% 1.50 1.50 2.00 2.30 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.10 2.10
Median 2.40 2.40 2.50 2.60 2.70 2.80 2.80 2.60 2.40 2.20
All data in the above table are percentage growth rates.
November 2002 12
ARIZONA WAGE & SALARY EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2011 2016 2021 2026
Panelist 1
Upper 10% 2.00 4.50 5.00 6.00 6.20 6.00 5.80 5.80 5.80 5.80
Lower 10% -1.00 0.00 2.00 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
Median 0.00 2.50 3.20 4.80 4.80 4.30 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
Panelist 2
Upper 10% 1.50 3.50 4.00 4.00 4.50 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
Lower 10% -1.00 -1.00 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Median 0.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.00 2.75 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50
Panelist 3
Upper 10% 0.00 3.00 3.50 3.50 3.70 3.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.60
Lower 10% -1.20 -2.00 -2.00 -2.00 -1.50 -1.50 -2.00 -2.00 -2.50 -3.00
Median -0.80 1.00 1.50 2.80 2.70 2.50 2.30 2.10 2.00 1.50
Panelist 4
Upper 10% 4.00 4.20 4.20 4.20 4.30 4.30 4.40 4.50 4.50 4.50
Lower 10% 1.50 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.60 1.60 1.40 1.40 1.20 1.00
Median 3.00 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.00 2.80 2.80 2.60
Panelist 5
Upper 10% 3.00 3.50 3.60 4.00 4.20 4.40 4.90 5.00 5.30 5.60
Lower 10% 1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.90 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.70
Median 2.00 2.50 2.60 2.60 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.30 2.20 2.20
Panelist 6
Upper 10% 4.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50
Lower 10% 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.50 1.50 1.30 1.00 1.00 1.00
Median 3.00 3.00 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.80 2.80 2.80 2.70
Panelist 7
Upper 10% 3.10 3.80 3.50 3.70 4.00 4.40 4.10 3.90 3.90 3.80
Lower 10% 1.10 1.80 1.50 1.70 2.00 2.40 2.10 1.90 1.90 1.80
Median 2.60 3.30 3.00 2.70 3.00 3.40 3.10 2.90 2.90 2.80
Panelist 8
Upper 10% 3.10 3.00 3.10 3.30 3.40 3.60 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70
Lower 10% 2.30 2.20 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.50 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40
Median 2.90 2.80 2.80 2.90 3.00 3.20 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30
Panelist 9
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 10
Upper 10% 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40
Lower 10% 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60
Median 1.70 2.60 2.60 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.30 2.00 2.00
Panelist 11
Upper 10% 1.25 2.25 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50
Lower 10% -0.50 0.50 1.75 2.50 2.50 3.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
Median 1.00 1.75 2.50 2.90 3.00 3.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
All data in the above table are percentage growth rates.
November 2002 13
HISTORICAL DATA
ARIZONA REAL PER CAPITA INCOME GROWTH
Using Phoenix CPI to Measure Inflation
(Annual Percent Change)
HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960 1970 1980 -0.3% 1990 -0.1% 2000 2.7%
1961 1971 1981 -2.0% 1991 -2.1% 2001 1.4%
1962 1972 1982 -3.1% 1992 -0.9% 2002* 0.6%
1963 1973 3.4% 1983 -0.7% 1993 0.1% 2003
1964 1974 1.7% 1984 4.6% 1994 0.8% 2004
1965 1975 -4.5% 1985 3.8% 1995 0.5% 2005
1966 1976 -3.7% 1986 1.5% 1996 -0.2% 2006
1967 1977 1.4% 1987 1.7% 1997 -0.1% 2007
1968 1978 3.7% 1988 1.6% 1998 0.4% 2008
1969 1979 2.3% 1989 0.5% 1999 -0.1% 2009
* Estimate
HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED
HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS
Historical Std. 80% Range
Period Min. Max. Mean Dev. Lower Upper
5 Years -0.1% 2.7% 1.0% 1.1% 0.1% 2.2%
10 Years -0.2% 2.7% 0.6% 0.9% -0.1% 1.6%
Full Period -4.5% 4.6% 0.5% 2.2% -2.2% 3.4%
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
November 2002 14
HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960 1970 3.3% 1980 3.3% 1990 1.6% 2000 0.8%
1961 1971 5.6% 1981 3.1% 1991 2.4% 2001 2.4%
1962 4.5% 1972 5.9% 1982 2.8% 1992 2.7% 2002 2.3%
1963 3.4% 1973 5.8% 1983 2.7% 1993 3.1% 2003
1964 2.3% 1974 4.7% 1984 3.3% 1994 3.6% 2004
1965 1.8% 1975 2.8% 1985 3.8% 1995 4.2% 2005
1966 1.9% 1976 2.7% 1986 3.9% 1996 3.5% 2006
1967 2.0% 1977 3.4% 1987 3.9% 1997 3.1% 2007
1968 2.2% 1978 3.7% 1988 2.9% 1998 3.6% 2008
1969 3.3% 1979 4.8% 1989 2.5% 1999 3.4% 2009
DES smoothed out the 1991 to 1995 figures. 1996-1999 data from October 2000 approved DES estimates and
2000-2002 from February 1997 approved DES projections.
HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED
HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS
Historical Std. 80% Range
Period Min. Max. Mean Dev. Lower Upper
5 Years 0.76% 3.56% 2.48% 1.11% 1.39% 3.48%
10 Years 0.76% 4.18% 3.00% 0.96% 2.17% 3.68%
Full Period 0.76% 5.91% 3.25% 1.11% 1.98% 4.66%
Historical Data
ARIZONA POPULATION GROWTH
(Annual Percent Change)
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02
Fiscal Year
Percent Change
November 2002 15
HISTORICAL DATA
ARIZONA WAGE & SALARY EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
(Annual Percent Change)
HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960 1970 1980 6.5% 1990 2.3% 2000 4.0%
1961 1971 1981 3.1% 1991 1.3% 2001 2.4%
1962 1972 1982 0.8% 1992 1.1% 2002* 1.0%
1963 1973 10.9% 1983 1.8% 1993 3.1% 2003
1964 1974 7.5% 1984 7.2% 1994 5.6% 2004
1965 1975 1.1% 1985 9.0% 1995 6.5% 2005
1966 1976 0.9% 1986 6.4% 1996 5.8% 2006
1967 1977 5.4% 1987 4.1% 1997 5.2% 2007
1968 1978 8.7% 1988 3.0% 1998 4.7% 2008
1969 1979 10.0% 1989 2.5% 1999 4.4% 2009
* Estimate
HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED
HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS
Historical Std. 80% Range
Period Min. Max. Mean Dev. Lower Upper
5 Years 1.0% 4.7% 3.3% 1.6% 1.6% 4.6%
10 Years 1.0% 6.5% 4.3% 1.7% 2.3% 5.8%
Full Period 0.8% 10.9% 4.5% 2.9% 1.0% 8.7%
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
Fiscal Year
Percent Change
Object Description
| TITLE | Arizona highway user revenue fund forecasting process & results |
| CREATOR | Arizona. Dept. of Transportation. Financial Management Services. |
| SUBJECT | Roads--Arizona--Finance--Periodicals; Roads--Economic aspects--Arizona--Periodicals; Electronic government information; |
| Browse Topic |
Transportation |
| DESCRIPTION | This item contains one or more publications. |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Arizona. Dept. of Transportation. Financial Management Services. |
| Material Collection |
State Documents |
| Source Identifier | TRT 2.3:H 43/2 |
| Location | ocn312746480 |
| REPOSITORY | Arizona State Library, Archives and Public Records--Law and Research Library. |
Description
| TITLE | Arizona highway user revenue fund forecasting process & results 2003-2012 |
| DESCRIPTION | 16 pages (PDF version). File size: 102 KB |
| TYPE |
Text |
| RIGHTS MANAGEMENT | Copyright to this resource is held by the creating agency and is provided here for educational purposes only. It may not be downloaded, reproduced or distributed in any format without written permission of the creating agency. Any attempt to circumvent the access controls placed on this file is a violation of United States and international copyright laws, and is subject to criminal prosecution. |
| DATE ORIGINAL | 2002-11 |
| Time Period |
2000s (2000-2009) 2010s (2010-2019) |
| ORIGINAL FORMAT | Born Digital |
| Source Identifier | TRT 2.3:H 43 |
| Location | ocn312746480 |
| DIGITAL IDENTIFIER | hurfcastproc0312.pdf |
| DIGITAL FORMAT | PDF (Portable Document Format) |
| REPOSITORY | Arizona State Library, Archives and Public Records--Law and Research Library. |
| File Size | 103909 Bytes |
| Full Text | ARIZONA HIGHWAY USER REVENUE FUND Forecasting Process & Results FY 2003-2012 Arizona Department of Transportation November 2002 Financial Management Services November 2002 1 ARIZONA HIGHWAY USER REVENUE FUND OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATE RISK ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED VALUES as of November 2002 Introduction This document presents the Arizona Department of Transportation’s (Department) forecast of expected values for the Arizona Highway User Revenue Fund for the period FY 2003-2012. Background The State of Arizona taxes motor fuels and collects a variety of fees relating to the registration and operation of motor vehicles in the state. These collections include gasoline and use fuel taxes, motor carrier fees, vehicle license taxes, motor vehicle registration fees, and other miscellaneous fees. These revenues are deposited in the Arizona Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) and are then distributed to the cities, towns and counties of the State and to the State Highway Fund, which is administered by the Department. These taxes and fees represent the primary source of revenues available to the state for highway construction, improvements and other related expenses. Since 1986, the Department has estimated Highway Revenues for the State using a comprehensive regression-based econometric model. In 1989, the model was updated by Dr. Alberta Charney of the University of Arizona. The model relied on the estimates of certain “independent variables” to predict future tax revenues. The model’s revenue forecast was highly dependent on estimates of the independent variables. Any variability between estimated and actual values could lead to variances in the tax forecast. In order to deal with this variability, the Department introduced the Risk Analysis Process (RAP) in 1992. The RAP relies upon probability analysis and the independent evaluation of the model’s variables by an expert panel of economists. This results in a series of forecasts with specified probabilities of occurrence, rather than a single or “best guess” estimate. In 1997, Hickling Lewis Brod Inc. (HLB), working in conjunction with Dr. Dennis Hoffman of Arizona State University, developed a new forecasting model to incorporate certain economic data generated over the past ten years and evaluate the inclusion of independent variables absent from the 1989 model, to enhance the model’s forecasting accuracy. HLB also eliminated independent variables that were either not significant to the model or were not readily available. The new model also took into consideration 1997 legislation (SB 1144 and SB 1398) which eliminated the weight distance tax on motor carriers, increased weight and use fees for use class vehicles, and changed the point of taxation on fuel. In September 2000, HLB reviewed the model and updated the equations. The independent variables contained in the updated model include: · Arizona real income growth per capita · Arizona population growth · Arizona wage & salary employment growth · Arizona fleet fuel efficiency November 2002 2 Risk Analysis Panel The Risk Analysis Process relies heavily on the judgments of an expert panel of economists to provide information critical to the forecasting process. In September 2002, an expert panel of eleven economists representing public, private, and academic sectors submitted their individual estimates of the model’s independent variables and comments on the future economic outlook. The information gathered from the panelists was input into the updated model to produce a series of forecasts with associated probabilities of occurrence. The panelists’ inputs are reflected in the attached tables at the back of this report. Model Results This year’s RAP panel inputs resulted in a mean forecast of $13,414.0 million for the period FY 2003-2012. The average compound growth rate associated with the forecast was 4.2 percent. The Department’s Official Forecast totals $13,442.7 million for the period of FY 2003-2012 with an average compound growth rate of 4.3 percent. The Official Forecast incorporates the 50 percent confidence interval for each year of the forecast. The FY 2003 forecast of $1,107.7 million was developed independently of the econometric model using time-series techniques, historical and projected growth rates from the model, and recent legislative changes. FY 2003 Official Forecast (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Mean Official Confidence Year Forecast Forecast Level 2003 $1,107.9 $1,107.7 N/A 2004 $1,150.1 $1,151.1 50% 2005 $1,197.8 $1,199.5 50% 2006 $1,248.7 $1,249.8 50% 2007 $1,302.9 $1,305.0 50% 2008 $1,359.2 $1,361.6 50% 2009 $1,417.7 $1,421.4 50% 2010 $1,478.5 $1,484.5 50% 2011 $1,541.9 $1,546.5 50% 2012 $1,609.3 $1,615.6 50% Total $13,414.0 $13,442.7 Avg. CGR 4.2% 4.3% A comparison of the December 2001 Official Forecast with the November 2002 Official Forecast is shown below: November 2002 3 FY 2003 Comparative Forecast (Dollars in Millions) Dec. 01 Nov. 02 Fiscal Official Official Year Forecast Forecast Difference 2003 $1,102.0 $1,107.7 $5.7 2004 $1,148.5 $1,151.1 $2.6 2005 $1,199.4 $1,199.5 $0.1 2006 $1,256.2 $1,249.8 ($6.4) 2007 $1,316.8 $1,305.0 ($11.8) 2008 $1,375.7 $1,361.6 ($14.1) 2009 $1,441.8 $1,421.4 ($20.4) 2010 $1,509.6 $1,484.5 ($25.1) 2011 $1,581.6 $1,546.5 ($35.1) 2012 $1,656.5 $1,615.6 ($40.9) Total $13,588.1 $13,442.7 ($145.4) Avg. CGR 4.6% 4.3% Summary The panel believes that the economy will continue to grow but at a slower pace. They forecasted lower growth rates for Arizona real income per capita and Arizona wage and salary employment during FY 2003-2012. However, they believe the Arizona population growth rate will remain about the same. For FY 2003-2012, there was a $145.4 million decrease in HURF revenue forecast, which was due mainly to the panel’s more conservative view of Arizona’s long term economic outlook. Supplementary Information The remaining pages of this report present supplementary information on the detailed results of the Risk Analysis Process, the Department’s model and the values of the independent variables forecast by the expert panel. While the Official Forecast period is FY 2003-2012, panel inputs were requested for FY 2003-2008, 2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026. Data displayed for other than the requested years, has been extrapolated. November 2002 4 Fiscal Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Percentile Actual 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Gasoline Tax $434.8 $447.9 $460.2 $474.5 $489.0 $504.2 $520.3 $536.2 $553.4 $569.8 $588.8 Use Fuel Tax 161.5 166.4 171.0 176.9 182.8 189.5 195.9 203.1 210.6 217.8 225.7 Motor Carrier Fee 29.3 31.8 32.8 33.9 34.7 35.8 36.8 38.0 39.1 40.1 41.3 Vehicle License Tax 270.7 281.1 300.3 320.5 343.3 368.3 394.0 421.4 450.8 480.5 512.8 Registration 138.2 137.9 142.3 147.0 151.0 155.6 160.4 165.6 170.5 175.2 180.5 Other 41.9 42.6 44.5 46.7 49.0 51.6 54.2 57.1 60.1 63.1 66.5 Total $1,076.4 $1,107.7 $1,151.1 $1,199.5 $1,249.8 $1,305.0 $1,361.6 $1,421.4 $1,484.5 $1,546.5 $1,615.6 HURF OFFICIAL REVENUE FORECAST With Category Detail and Confidence Interval By Fiscal Year November 2002 5 Fiscal Year Mean 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2003 $1,107.9 $1,138.6 $1,125.2 $1,118.5 $1,112.0 $1,107.7 $1,103.3 $1,097.0 $1,090.1 $1,079.3 2004 1,150.1 1,192.6 1,176.0 1,166.0 1,157.1 1,151.1 1,143.8 1,135.3 1,124.2 1,109.9 2005 1,197.8 1,246.6 1,229.1 1,218.2 1,207.8 1,199.5 1,189.9 1,179.4 1,167.4 1,150.8 2006 1,248.7 1,307.8 1,285.0 1,272.9 1,262.1 1,249.8 1,239.3 1,226.9 1,215.3 1,195.0 2007 1,302.9 1,367.9 1,347.8 1,330.9 1,320.6 1,305.0 1,292.0 1,279.6 1,265.7 1,240.6 2008 1,359.2 1,434.7 1,409.2 1,392.1 1,375.5 1,361.6 1,348.9 1,335.7 1,317.7 1,287.9 2009 1,417.7 1,504.8 1,476.9 1,453.5 1,435.7 1,421.4 1,407.9 1,389.8 1,370.7 1,341.9 2010 1,478.5 1,573.5 1,544.8 1,517.4 1,497.7 1,484.5 1,464.7 1,447.4 1,428.3 1,393.0 2011 1,541.9 1,651.9 1,614.5 1,586.3 1,567.9 1,546.5 1,528.9 1,506.9 1,486.2 1,447.6 2012 1,609.3 1,726.9 1,684.7 1,662.9 1,639.6 1,615.6 1,593.1 1,569.3 1,546.4 1,503.9 HURF TOTAL TAX REVENUE RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS (Current Dollars in Millions) November 2002 6 OFFICIAL FORECAST RESULTS (Current Dollars in Millions) $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 $1,300 $1,400 $1,500 $1,600 $1,700 $1,800 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Millions of Current Dollars Official Mean 80% Conf. 20% Conf. Fiscal Official Mean 80% Conf. 20% Conf. Year Forecast Forecast Interval Interval 2003 $1,107.7 $1,107.9 $1,090.1 $1,125.2 2004 1,151.1 1,150.1 1,124.2 1,176.0 2005 1,199.5 1,197.8 1,167.4 1,229.1 2006 1,249.8 1,248.7 1,215.3 1,285.0 2007 1,305.0 1,302.9 1,265.7 1,347.8 2008 1,361.6 1,359.2 1,317.7 1,409.2 2009 1,421.4 1,417.7 1,370.7 1,476.9 2010 1,484.5 1,478.5 1,428.3 1,544.8 2011 1,546.5 1,541.9 1,486.2 1,614.5 2012 1,615.6 1,609.3 1,546.4 1,684.7 Total $13,442.7 $13,414.0 $13,012.0 $13,893.2 November 2002 7 ARIZONA POPULATION GROWTH 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Fiscal Year Growth Rate Median Lower 10% Upper 10% ARIZONA REAL INCOME PER CAPITA -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Fiscal Year Growth Rate Median Lower 10% Upper 10% November 2002 8 ARIZONA WAGE & SALARY EMPLOYMENT 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Fiscal Year Growth Rate Median Lower 10% Upper 10% November 2002 9 PANELIST MEAN DATA VALUES Income Population Wage & Salary Growth Growth Employment FY 2003 Upper 10% 1.93 2.80 2.50 Lower 10% -0.36 1.77 0.35 Median 1.13 2.32 1.59 FY 2004 Upper 10% 1.89 2.90 3.53 Lower 10% -0.17 1.75 0.54 Median 1.05 2.35 2.47 FY 2005 Upper 10% 2.22 3.07 3.74 Lower 10% -0.15 1.83 1.02 Median 1.25 2.45 2.68 FY 2006 Upper 10% 2.39 3.20 3.91 Lower 10% 0.24 1.82 1.16 Median 1.40 2.50 3.02 FY 2007 Upper 10% 2.40 3.16 4.09 Lower 10% 0.31 1.80 1.33 Median 1.30 2.52 3.05 FY 2008 Upper 10% 2.38 3.18 4.11 Lower 10% 0.14 1.79 1.44 Median 1.19 2.48 3.07 FY 2011 Upper 10% 2.33 3.22 4.03 Lower 10% 0.04 1.66 1.16 Median 1.14 2.35 2.89 FY 2016 Upper 10% 2.37 3.18 4.03 Lower 10% -0.05 1.59 1.11 Median 1.06 2.22 2.80 FY 2021 Upper 10% 2.35 3.15 4.06 Lower 10% -0.18 1.51 1.04 Median 1.03 2.12 2.75 FY 2026 Upper 10% 2.37 3.15 4.04 Lower 10% -0.26 1.45 0.95 Median 1.00 2.08 2.66 All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. November 2002 10 ARIZONA REAL PER CAPITA INCOME GROWTH 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2011 2016 2021 2026 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 1.10 1.50 1.90 2.30 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 Lower 10% -0.50 -0.70 -0.70 -0.30 0.00 -0.50 -0.70 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00 Median 0.30 0.30 0.50 0.80 0.50 0.30 0.30 0.40 0.40 0.40 Panelist 2 Upper 10% 1.25 1.25 1.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 Lower 10% -1.00 -1.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 Median 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.50 1.25 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.50 0.50 Panelist 3 Upper 10% 2.50 2.50 3.50 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 Lower 10% -4.00 -1.50 -3.00 -2.00 -2.00 -3.00 -3.00 -3.00 -3.00 -3.00 Median 1.50 1.70 1.50 1.30 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Panelist 4 Upper 10% 3.00 3.10 3.10 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.50 3.50 3.50 Lower 10% 1.00 1.10 1.10 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 Median 3.00 2.10 2.10 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.90 1.90 1.80 1.70 Panelist 5 Upper 10% 1.60 1.70 1.90 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.10 2.00 1.90 2.10 Lower 10% 0.70 0.80 0.60 0.60 0.50 0.30 0.10 0.00 -0.70 -0.90 Median 1.20 1.40 1.40 1.30 1.30 1.10 1.00 0.70 0.60 0.50 Panelist 6 Upper 10% 1.00 1.00 1.20 1.50 1.50 1.70 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 Lower 10% -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 Median 0.00 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 Panelist 7 Upper 10% 2.60 2.10 2.20 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 Lower 10% 0.00 -0.50 -0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Median 1.00 0.50 0.90 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 Panelist 8 Upper 10% 2.00 2.00 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 1.90 1.90 1.80 1.80 Lower 10% 1.50 1.30 1.40 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.20 0.80 0.80 0.80 Median 1.80 1.70 1.90 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.60 1.50 1.40 1.30 Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 1.10 1.00 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.50 Panelist 10 Upper 10% 3.00 2.50 2.30 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.60 1.60 1.60 1.60 Lower 10% 0.50 0.30 0.00 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.40 -0.40 -0.40 -0.40 Median 1.00 1.30 1.50 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.00 0.80 0.80 0.80 Panelist 11 Upper 10% 1.25 1.25 2.50 2.90 3.20 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 Lower 10% -0.75 -0.50 0.50 2.00 2.20 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 Median 1.00 1.00 1.75 2.50 2.60 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. November 2002 11 ARIZONA POPULATION GROWTH 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2011 2016 2021 2026 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 3.30 3.30 3.50 3.90 3.70 3.60 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 Lower 10% 1.70 1.60 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.80 1.50 1.50 1.40 1.40 Median 2.30 2.20 2.50 2.70 3.00 2.70 2.30 2.10 2.00 2.00 Panelist 2 Upper 10% 2.30 2.75 3.25 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 Lower 10% 1.00 1.20 1.20 1.50 2.00 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 Median 1.80 2.20 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.00 2.90 2.90 2.75 2.75 Panelist 3 Upper 10% 2.50 2.60 2.70 2.80 2.90 2.90 3.00 3.00 3.10 3.20 Lower 10% 1.80 1.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 Median 2.30 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.10 2.00 1.70 1.70 1.70 Panelist 4 Upper 10% 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.80 2.80 2.80 2.80 Lower 10% 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.60 Median 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 Panelist 5 Upper 10% 2.50 2.60 2.60 2.80 3.00 3.10 3.40 3.50 3.60 3.70 Lower 10% 2.00 1.80 1.70 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.00 0.60 0.50 0.30 Median 2.30 2.20 2.20 2.10 2.10 2.00 1.90 1.60 1.50 1.40 Panelist 6 Upper 10% 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 Lower 10% 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 Median 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.20 2.20 2.00 2.00 Panelist 7 Upper 10% 3.80 3.90 4.40 4.40 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 Lower 10% 2.00 2.10 2.60 2.60 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 Median 2.90 3.00 3.50 3.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 Panelist 8 Upper 10% 2.40 2.50 2.60 2.90 3.20 3.30 3.00 2.80 2.70 2.60 Lower 10% 1.90 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.10 2.00 1.80 1.70 1.70 1.60 Median 2.20 2.20 2.40 2.50 2.50 2.40 2.10 2.00 1.90 1.80 Panelist 9 Upper 10% 2.30 2.50 2.40 2.40 2.50 2.60 Lower 10% 1.80 1.90 1.90 1.80 1.80 1.90 Median 2.00 2.20 2.10 2.10 2.20 2.30 Panelist 10 Upper 10% 3.00 2.90 2.80 2.80 2.70 2.70 2.60 2.50 2.40 2.30 Lower 10% 2.00 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.70 1.70 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 Median 2.50 2.40 2.30 2.30 2.20 2.20 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.60 Panelist 11 Upper 10% 2.75 2.80 3.50 3.80 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.25 3.00 3.00 Lower 10% 1.50 1.50 2.00 2.30 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.10 2.10 Median 2.40 2.40 2.50 2.60 2.70 2.80 2.80 2.60 2.40 2.20 All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. November 2002 12 ARIZONA WAGE & SALARY EMPLOYMENT GROWTH 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2011 2016 2021 2026 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 2.00 4.50 5.00 6.00 6.20 6.00 5.80 5.80 5.80 5.80 Lower 10% -1.00 0.00 2.00 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 Median 0.00 2.50 3.20 4.80 4.80 4.30 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 Panelist 2 Upper 10% 1.50 3.50 4.00 4.00 4.50 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 Lower 10% -1.00 -1.00 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Median 0.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.00 2.75 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 Panelist 3 Upper 10% 0.00 3.00 3.50 3.50 3.70 3.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.60 Lower 10% -1.20 -2.00 -2.00 -2.00 -1.50 -1.50 -2.00 -2.00 -2.50 -3.00 Median -0.80 1.00 1.50 2.80 2.70 2.50 2.30 2.10 2.00 1.50 Panelist 4 Upper 10% 4.00 4.20 4.20 4.20 4.30 4.30 4.40 4.50 4.50 4.50 Lower 10% 1.50 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.60 1.60 1.40 1.40 1.20 1.00 Median 3.00 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.00 2.80 2.80 2.60 Panelist 5 Upper 10% 3.00 3.50 3.60 4.00 4.20 4.40 4.90 5.00 5.30 5.60 Lower 10% 1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.90 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.70 Median 2.00 2.50 2.60 2.60 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.30 2.20 2.20 Panelist 6 Upper 10% 4.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 Lower 10% 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.50 1.50 1.30 1.00 1.00 1.00 Median 3.00 3.00 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.80 2.80 2.80 2.70 Panelist 7 Upper 10% 3.10 3.80 3.50 3.70 4.00 4.40 4.10 3.90 3.90 3.80 Lower 10% 1.10 1.80 1.50 1.70 2.00 2.40 2.10 1.90 1.90 1.80 Median 2.60 3.30 3.00 2.70 3.00 3.40 3.10 2.90 2.90 2.80 Panelist 8 Upper 10% 3.10 3.00 3.10 3.30 3.40 3.60 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 Lower 10% 2.30 2.20 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.50 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 Median 2.90 2.80 2.80 2.90 3.00 3.20 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 Lower 10% 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 Median 1.70 2.60 2.60 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.30 2.00 2.00 Panelist 11 Upper 10% 1.25 2.25 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 Lower 10% -0.50 0.50 1.75 2.50 2.50 3.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 Median 1.00 1.75 2.50 2.90 3.00 3.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. November 2002 13 HISTORICAL DATA ARIZONA REAL PER CAPITA INCOME GROWTH Using Phoenix CPI to Measure Inflation (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1970 1980 -0.3% 1990 -0.1% 2000 2.7% 1961 1971 1981 -2.0% 1991 -2.1% 2001 1.4% 1962 1972 1982 -3.1% 1992 -0.9% 2002* 0.6% 1963 1973 3.4% 1983 -0.7% 1993 0.1% 2003 1964 1974 1.7% 1984 4.6% 1994 0.8% 2004 1965 1975 -4.5% 1985 3.8% 1995 0.5% 2005 1966 1976 -3.7% 1986 1.5% 1996 -0.2% 2006 1967 1977 1.4% 1987 1.7% 1997 -0.1% 2007 1968 1978 3.7% 1988 1.6% 1998 0.4% 2008 1969 1979 2.3% 1989 0.5% 1999 -0.1% 2009 * Estimate HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Historical Std. 80% Range Period Min. Max. Mean Dev. Lower Upper 5 Years -0.1% 2.7% 1.0% 1.1% 0.1% 2.2% 10 Years -0.2% 2.7% 0.6% 0.9% -0.1% 1.6% Full Period -4.5% 4.6% 0.5% 2.2% -2.2% 3.4% -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 November 2002 14 HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1970 3.3% 1980 3.3% 1990 1.6% 2000 0.8% 1961 1971 5.6% 1981 3.1% 1991 2.4% 2001 2.4% 1962 4.5% 1972 5.9% 1982 2.8% 1992 2.7% 2002 2.3% 1963 3.4% 1973 5.8% 1983 2.7% 1993 3.1% 2003 1964 2.3% 1974 4.7% 1984 3.3% 1994 3.6% 2004 1965 1.8% 1975 2.8% 1985 3.8% 1995 4.2% 2005 1966 1.9% 1976 2.7% 1986 3.9% 1996 3.5% 2006 1967 2.0% 1977 3.4% 1987 3.9% 1997 3.1% 2007 1968 2.2% 1978 3.7% 1988 2.9% 1998 3.6% 2008 1969 3.3% 1979 4.8% 1989 2.5% 1999 3.4% 2009 DES smoothed out the 1991 to 1995 figures. 1996-1999 data from October 2000 approved DES estimates and 2000-2002 from February 1997 approved DES projections. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Historical Std. 80% Range Period Min. Max. Mean Dev. Lower Upper 5 Years 0.76% 3.56% 2.48% 1.11% 1.39% 3.48% 10 Years 0.76% 4.18% 3.00% 0.96% 2.17% 3.68% Full Period 0.76% 5.91% 3.25% 1.11% 1.98% 4.66% Historical Data ARIZONA POPULATION GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 Fiscal Year Percent Change November 2002 15 HISTORICAL DATA ARIZONA WAGE & SALARY EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1970 1980 6.5% 1990 2.3% 2000 4.0% 1961 1971 1981 3.1% 1991 1.3% 2001 2.4% 1962 1972 1982 0.8% 1992 1.1% 2002* 1.0% 1963 1973 10.9% 1983 1.8% 1993 3.1% 2003 1964 1974 7.5% 1984 7.2% 1994 5.6% 2004 1965 1975 1.1% 1985 9.0% 1995 6.5% 2005 1966 1976 0.9% 1986 6.4% 1996 5.8% 2006 1967 1977 5.4% 1987 4.1% 1997 5.2% 2007 1968 1978 8.7% 1988 3.0% 1998 4.7% 2008 1969 1979 10.0% 1989 2.5% 1999 4.4% 2009 * Estimate HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Historical Std. 80% Range Period Min. Max. Mean Dev. Lower Upper 5 Years 1.0% 4.7% 3.3% 1.6% 1.6% 4.6% 10 Years 1.0% 6.5% 4.3% 1.7% 2.3% 5.8% Full Period 0.8% 10.9% 4.5% 2.9% 1.0% 8.7% 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 Fiscal Year Percent Change |
