Multimodal freight analysis study

              e xCeOVEcR u t i v e s u m m a r y
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executive
summary
A key outcome of the Arizona Multimodal Freight
Analysis Study is “ a strategy for establishing
freight analysis as an integral part of Arizona’s
long- range planning process.”* This study was
directed to include the following as part of the
strategy development:
• Broad themes to guide future freight planning
• A description of how multimodal
transportation networks impact the freight
industry
• Potential impacts of freight strategies on
economic development in Arizona
• A strategy for freight data collection,
analysis, and planning
• Measurable indicators describing the impact
of freight traffic on the performance of
Arizona’s multimodal freight transportation
network
The study process for the Arizona Multimodal
Freight Study involved three analysis steps and
three interim study Technical Memoranda:
1. Analysis of Arizona’s Freight- Dependent
Industries ( Tech Memo # 1) examined the
demands placed on Arizona’s multimodal
transportation infrastructure as a result
of freight/ commodity movements in and
through the state.
2. Freight Infrastructure Analysis
( Tech Memo # 2) is a supply- side analysis
that provides an inventory of Arizona’s modal
freight networks and key nodes.
3. Strategic Directions for Freight Planning
( Tech Memo # 3) presents key information
from the analysis tasks and proposes a
freight planning agenda for the Arizona
Department of Transportation ( ADOT)
designed to offer a menu of options for
integrating freight considerations into
department planning functions.
“ a strategy for establishing
freight analysis as an
integral part of Arizona’s
long- range planning
process.”
* State of Arizona, Notice of Request for Proposals for a Multimodal Freight Analysis Study, December 2006.
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Broad Themes to Guide Future Freight Planning
The key trends and themes likely to impact freight transportation in the State of
Arizona are based on data, analysis, research and stakeholder outreach conducted
for the Arizona Multimodal Freight Analysis Study. These key trends are examined
with regard to specific implications for freight transport issues in Arizona and
provide the basis for freight policy and planning recommendations presented in the
report. It is likely to take years to ultimately determine whether recent fuel price
volatility or the current economic recession will result in additional shifts to U. S.
trade patterns. However, nothing at this time suggests current economic conditions
will reverse the underlying macro- economic, demographic or industry trends
discussed.
Arizona’s Population Growth
Between 1990 and 2000, Arizona’s population growth ranked second among
all states with a 40 percent increase in population over the decade. Long- term
forecasts for population growth in Arizona predict population increases of 74
percent between 2006 and 2030, growing from approximately 6.2 million people
in 2006 to 10.7 million in 2030. The forecasted growth in Arizona’s population will
have major impacts on Arizona’s demand for freight transportation services.
Population growth drives the demand for freight related services required to bring
goods to Arizona consumers. Economic output drives the future demand for
freight services required to move Arizona products to market. Projected growth
in employment and worker productivity serves as a proxy for estimating future
economic output in the state. From 2005 to 2030 both total employment and
productivity per employee are estimated to each increase at an annual rate of 2.1
percent. 1,2 When combined these two factors suggest an average annual growth
rate for economic output of 4.2 percent, or more than 180 percent over the period.
If freight movements increase in direct proportion Arizona’s estimated economic
In addition to recommending freight planning strategy
options, the report also provides examples, guidance
for implementation, and suggestions for performance
metrics. The three Technical Memoranda are available
on the ADOT web site at:
http:// tpd. azdot. gov/ planning/ freightstudy. php.
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growth, the volume of commodities generated by Arizona production facilities will
increase nearly three fold.
In 2005, approximately 557 million tons of freight valued at $ 2.3 billion moved
in, out, within, and through the state of Arizona. On a weight basis, roughly three-quarters
of this freight moved on the state’s highway system by truck. Railroads
moved most of the remaining tonnage, while air cargo accounted for just one- tenth
of one percent by weight ( Exhibit ES- 1).
Globalization and Macro- Economic Shifts
Over the last several decades the U. S. economy has undergone fundamental changes
due to an aging workforce, improvements to and greater dependence on technology,
and low cost transportation. The U. S. economy, once based on manufacturing is
today based on service industries, and U. S. manufacturing continues to become
more focused on high- value/ value- added production. Advances in technology and
supply chain management practices have enabled firms to develop customized
products for mass- market distribution. In the current environment, cost- effective,
time- sensitive transportation services are increasingly a strategy for competitive
advantage. Businesses today shop the world for raw materials, parts and labor,
managing widely dispersed supply chains, using real- time information to manage
integrated multimodal transportation services.
For Arizona, the new economy and logistics revolution have several implications:
1. Growing Arizona population centers will drive increasingly higher levels of
freight activity and truck traffic, as consumer consumption drives the need for
freight movements.
2. Southern California will continue to be a primary gateway for Trans- Pacific
container traffic. While expansion of the Panama Canal currently underway
( scheduled for completion in 2014) will draw more Asian containerships
Exhibit ES- 1:
Modal Shares of Arizona Freight by Weight
Source: WSA Analysis of 2005 TRANSEARCH data
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directly to east coast ports, Arizona will continue to see high volumes of “ land-bridge”
rail and truck traffic from the San Pedro Ports.
3. Increasing highway congestion will drive supply chain strategies like
transloading that will impact commercial development and regional land use in
Arizona.
4. To remain competitive in the new economy, businesses will seek environments
where public and private infrastructure supports integrated supply chain
strategies; namely transportation networks that are reliable, agile, dependable,
and to some extent redundant.
5. The freight transportation sector is a significant contributor to airborne
emissions and air quality issues. As citizens and communities become
increasingly sensitive to environmental quality, companies are recognizing the
need to respond with transport options that reduce carbon emissions.
The impact of multimodal transportation networks on the freight industry
The generic supply chain for imported goods depicted in Exhibit ES- 2 illustrates the
multiple parties and close coordination required to make multimodal supply chains
flow smoothly and efficiently. As globalization of the U. S. economy has grown,
Arizona as a border state to Mexico and neighbor to Southern California, home of
the largest North American container port, is in the middle of the globalization trend.
One emerging practice in response to capacity constraints and congestion at deep
water coastal ports like the San Pedro Ports of Southern California is transloading.
Transloading includes the practice of moving imported goods received at a port in
40 foot international containers by rail to an inland facility where they are reloaded
into 53 foot domestic containers. Domestic containers are then moved by truck to
manufacturers, retailers or other receivers. Arizona is becoming a popular location
for transloading containers moving through the San Pedro Ports.
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Exhibit ES- 2: Illustrative Supply Chain Network for Imported Goods
Raw Material
Producer/ Shipper
Transload/ Reload Center
Warehouse/ Distribution Center
Retail Store Receiver/ Shipper
Receiver
Freight Stakeholders
CARRIERS
CARRIERS
CARRIERS
TRUC K I N G | R AI L A I R | M A R I N E
CARRIERS T RU C KI N G | R A I L A I R | M A R I N E
CARRIERS T R U C K ING | RA I L A I R | M A R I N E
TRUC K IN G | R AI L A I R | M A R I N E
T R UC K I N G | R A I L A I R | M A R I N E
Manufacturer
Receiver/ Shipper
3PL
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While rail transport will likely play a major role in transporting regional and bridge
traffic to, from, and through Arizona, truck transportation will remain the dominant
mode for distributing the population- driven freight transportation growth within
the state’s mega- urban area that includes Tucson and Phoenix. Freight transport
patterns within the urban areas consist predominantly of shorter trips ( relative
to regional and long- haul trips) with a scattered distributed pattern across a
widespread market.
The pressure from Arizona’s population growth, the tension between commercial
development, and the service sensitivity of modern supply chains for reliable
transportation services suggests a need to identify a priority regional highway-freight
network. The high volumes of landbridge traffic moving by road and rail
through Arizona should not overshadow the need to plan for regional truck networks
supporting local and regional economies in the state. While regional road networks
may experience significantly lower truck volumes than high volume interstate
corridors, regional truck networks are often essential to the economic vitality
of regional trade centers. Many regional highway segments already experience
relatively high levels of truck traffic in excess of 20 percent on some segments.
Intra- regional commercial corridors would be the primary conduits for freight from
Phoenix, the urban center of Arizona, to regional trade centers such as Tucson,
Yuma, and Flagstaff.
While Arizona has historically been viewed as a bridge state serving large volumes
of through traffic, carriers will increasingly view Arizona as a destination due to
its growing population. Increasingly, trucking, railroads and third party logistics
providers will build whole loads ( trucks, rail cars, unit trains) specifically for Arizona
traffic. The combined Phoenix and Tucson market by 2030 will be on the same scale
and size as the greater Los Angeles market today, which by itself consumes around
20 percent of all containers through the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach
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( LA/ LB). This represents a significant market for carriers to serve the Arizona market
as a set aside destination market.
Potential impacts of freight strategies on economic development in Arizona
The dramatic shift in the U. S. economy has greatly increased the demand for freight
transport services. Arizona’s transportation and warehousing industry plays a vital
role in the state’s economy. The transportation industry supports many other industry
sectors by facilitating the movement of goods and services, and is also a significant
direct contributor of jobs and earnings in the state. In 2006, Arizona’s transportation
and warehousing industry directly accounted for 3 percent of the state’s workforce,
and 5.3 percent of gross state product. When economic multiplier effects from
transportation and warehousing are considered, it is estimated that the sector
supported jobs for 237,600 Arizona citizens, providing earnings of $ 12.5 billion. When
multiplier effects of the industry are considered, transportation and warehousing
contributed $ 27.7 billion in gross state product in 2006. Economic forecasts of
transportation and warehousing activity in Arizona estimate that by the year 2014, the
industry will support 271,600 jobs, earning of $ 12.5 billion, and produce $ 31.7 billion in
total economic activity ( measured in 2006 dollars).
Over the next 25 years, commodity volumes in Arizona are expected to increase by
an average of 78 percent on a weight basis. Some commodity groups are expected
to experience tremendous growth. For instance, Electrical Equipment is forecasted
to grow by more than 400 percent over the next 25 years. Machinery; Miscellaneous
Manufacturing; and Instruments, Photography Equipment, and Optical Equipment
commodity groups are each expected to grow by more than 200 percent during the
forecast period. Over the next 25 years, commodity volumes moving by truck are
projected to increase from 421.5 million tons to 712.7 million tons, an increase of 69
percent. The forecast equates to a 2.1 percent annual growth rate for trucking volumes.
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Strategies for Freight Data Collection, Analysis, and Planning
In response to Arizona’s tremendous population growth over the past several
decades and the need to invest in the state’s future, ADOT is currently pursuing an
aggressive statewide transportation investment strategy. To support the investment
strategy, ADOT has undertaken a series of regional and issue- specific framework
studies. The themes developed to guide ADOT’s freight planning efforts are intended
to respond directly to the issues facing Arizona, while providing opportunities to
integrate freight planning with emerging statewide policy. Exhibit ES- 3 introduces six
proposed freight planning strategy themes and suggests how these themes integrate
with the Transportation Planning Framework Principles.
Exhibit ES- 3: Recommended ADOT Freight Planning Strategies
SAFETEA- LU Planning Goals
Proposed Freight
Planning Strategies
AZ Planning Framework
Guiding Principles
• Economic vitality
• Increase safety
• Increase security
• Increase access &
mobility for people &
freight
• Protect & enhance the
environment
• Enhance integration &
connectivity
• Promote efficient system
management & operation
• Enhance preservation of
the existing system
1. link Freight Planning to
Economic development
2. Coordinate Freight
Planning & local land use
Planning
3. Preserve & Prioritize
Key Freight Infrastructure
4. Seek to Improve Freight
operations
5. Enhance Freight System
Safety & Security
6. Environmental Preserva-tion
& Energy Efficiency
• Support Economic
development & Business
Involvement
• Support Smart Growth
& Sustainable land use
• Achieve Multimodal
Balance
• Tribal Community
Involvement
• Environmental &
Conservation Community
Involvement
• Statewide Collaboration
with CoGs, MPos &
Tribal Government
AdoT Mission
Provide products &
services for a safe ,
efficient, cost- effective
transportation system
that links Arizona to the
global economy,
promotes economic
prosperity and demon-strates
respect for
Arizona’s environment
and quality of life.
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A key outcome of the Arizona Multimodal Freight Analysis Study is “ a strategy
for establishing freight analysis as an integral part of Arizona’s long- range planning
process.Ӡ The strategy is intended to provide themes for guiding future freight
planning at ADOT, examine the relationship between freight activity and economic
development in Arizona, and provide strategies for related data collection and
analysis about the impacts of freight on the performance of Arizona’s multimodal
freight transportation networks. To meet these objects a freight planning agenda is
recommended for ADOT that provides a menu of strategies and tactics that ADOT
can use to begin the process of integrating freight into the existing planning process.
The freight planning agenda summarized in Exhibit ES- 4 is intended to start ADOT
down this cooperative freight planning path. The agenda is designed to integrate
freight considerations into ADOT’s existing planning initiatives while remaining
consistent with other state and national freight policy themes. The summary table
also provides suggestions for performance measures that can be use to track the
effectiveness of implemented strategies.
† State of Arizona, Notice of Request for Proposals for a Multimodal Freight Analysis Study, December 2006.
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Exhibit ES- 4: Summary of the Proposed ADOT Freight Planning Agenda
Strategic Response # 1: Link Freight Planning to Economic Development
Tactics Performance Measures/ Indicator
1a. Engage the private sector in transportation planning. • Number of freight stakeholder outreach activities
• Number of private sector attendees at events
• Number of Arizona communities that adopt or
develop land use guidelines specifically addressing
freight developments
• Number of in- state university research projects
addressing land use and freight
1b. Support freight- related training and education for
state, regional, and local planning staff.
• Number of training sessions or workshops hosted
• Number of MPO/ CoG representatives at training
sessions
1c. Market the link between transportation and
Arizona’s economy.
• Public attitudes toward freight in omnibus surveys
• Sponsorship of the CAPS Center for Strategic Supply
Research or similar organizations
Strategic Response # 3: Preserve and Prioritize Key Freight Infrastructure
Tactics Performance Measures/ Indicator
3a. Expand Arizona’s participation in high- priority
corridor initiatives.
• Number of corridor- level agreements with other states
• Number of projects funded through or initiated by CoF
or other corridor- based programs
3b. Support railroad mainline capacity expansions. • The formation of, or participation in, rail corridor
coalitions
• Rail freight facility access improvements
• Number of at- grade crossings removed
3c. Prioritize and protect priority highway corridors for
efficient freight movement.
• Average truck trip time between trade centers
3d. Establish and maintain a freight data collection
program.
• The number or percent of planning studies, such as
framework studies, that include some element of
freight analysis
• Average travel time and buffer indices for major truck
corridors
Strategic Response # 2: Coordinate Freight Planning and Local Land Use Planning
Tactics Performance Measures/ Indicator
2a. Encourage and support efforts on behalf of local
governments to develop land use planning guidelines
for freight- intensive development.
• Number of communities that develop local freight
stakeholder forums or groups
2b. Encourage communities to work closely with the
private sector when developing freight logistics centers.
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Strategic Response # 4: Seek Opportunities to Improve Freight Operations
Tactics Performance Measures/ Indicator
4a. Incorporate heavy truck movements into highway
design and reduce bottlenecks
• Percent of priority truck routes meeting AdoT
standards for:
o pavement condition
o bridge condition
o WB- 67 intersection design
o adequate acceleration lanes for trucks
• Adequate climbing lanes for trucks on steep grades
4b. Expand Arizona’s nhS intermodal connector
network for freight.
• Number of Arizona road segments on the FhWA- nhS
connector listing that serve freight facilities
4b. use innovative technology to improve highway
operations for commercial vehicles.
• Number of ITS projects on freight- significant corridors
in Arizona
• Estimated time savings from ITS investments on
priority truck corridors
Strategic Response # 5: Enhance Freight System Safety and Security
Tactics Performance Measures/ Indicator
5a. Target improvements to truck crash “ hot spots.” • Commercial vehicle crash rates by segment
• Percent of vehicle and driver attributes for truck
crashes for which the response “ unknown” is listed in
crash reports
5b. Provide safe, secure parking opportunities for
commercial vehicle drivers.
• Percent of public truck parking spaces occupied by
time of day
• Distance ( in miles) between public truck parking
facilities on major corridors
5c. Monitor/ improve the safety of railroad grade
crossings that have a crash history.
• Number of crashes by crossing
• Number of at- grade improvements
5d. Implement performance- based truck size and
weight enforcement policies.
• Annual pavement and bridge infrastructure savings
from weight enforcement
5e. Monitor impacts of TSA air cargo screening
requirements on businesses.
• Number of meetings with air cargo stakeholders
to monitor impacts
Strategic Response # 6: Environmental Preservation and Energy Efficiency
Tactics Performance Measures/ Indicator
6a. Promote “ green” freight initiatives in Arizona’s
growing freight transport sector.
• Percentage reduction in mobile source emissions
from large trucks
• Percentage reduction in energy consumption from
large trucks
6b. Study options for moving through trucks out of
congested urban corridors.
• Percentage reduction in truck VMT on congested
urban corridors
Exhibit ES- 4: Summary of the Proposed ADOT Freight Planning Agenda Continued
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Conclusions
The forecasted growth in Arizona’s population is the leading driver impacting freight
transportation policy and development in the state of Arizona. The increase in
population will lead to an equivalent increase in demand for goods and services. As
population increases, so will traffic volumes, both in terms of passenger travel and
freight transportation. The geographic distribution of these population forecasts
suggests significant development patterns around the major metropolitan areas of
Tucson and Phoenix.
Commodity forecasts suggest that rail will be the fastest growing mode in Arizona,
but most of the volume increases will come from bridge traffic through Arizona.
Truck transportation will likely be the dominant mode for distributing the population-driven
freight demand around Arizona’s population centers.
The state of Arizona is at the crossroads of several significant regional, national, and
international trade corridors. As bridge traffic along these trade corridors grows,
they continue to congest and impact the efficiency and productivity of key regional
and national rail and highway corridors that serve Arizona, in terms of both freight
transportation and overall commuter transportation.
It is anticipated that the San Pedro Bay ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach ( LA/ LB)
will continue to be the major U. S. gateway for Asian container traffic, with container
volumes expected to triple by 2020. The railroads are making major investments in
on- dock rail facilities to accommodate an increasing share in rail traffic. Moreover,
trucking is likely to continue as the dominant mode for transporting containers to
markets other than those on the East Coast. The increase in rail traffic and long-haul
truck traffic is likely to impact key corridors feeding through Arizona. While
speculation continues about the development of rail and highway corridors from
Mexico to serve increasing trade between Mexico and the United States, these plans
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are not concrete. If successfully implemented, they could have significant impacts on
key corridors that serve the state of Arizona; notwithstanding these trends, the San
Pedro Bay ports will continue to be an important gateway with significant impacts
on Arizona by virtue of their location.
As Arizona continues to grow, individual communities, stakeholders, and constituent
groups are likely to gain the resources as well as the political will and weight to try
to address transportation strategies on an autonomous and individual basis. ADOT
can be a leader in the area of freight transportation planning. The challenge in taking
this leadership role lies in the ability to develop a consistent statewide strategy for
addressing freight transportation. The overriding policy implication for the state of
Arizona is the need for greater cooperation and proactive planning among agencies
at the state and regional level, coordination among cities and counties within major
urban areas, and coordination with the private sector specifically.