Treasure of the Superstitions : scenarios for the future of Superstition Vistas : Arizona's premier state trust land in the southeast valley

              APRIL 2006



THE TREASURE OF THE



SUPERSTITIONS

S C E N A R I O S FOR THE FUTURE OF SUPERSTITION VISTAS

A R I Z O N A' S PREMIER S TAT E TRUST LAND I N T H E S O U T H E A S T VALLEY



THE TREASURE OF THE



SUPERSTITIONS

S C E N A R I O S FOR THE FUTURE OF SUPERSTITION V I S TA S

A R I Z O N A' S PREMIER STATE TRUST LAND IN THE SOUTHEAST VALLEY



Grady Gammage, Jr. S e n i o r R e s e a r c h Fellow M o r r i s o n Institute for Public Policy

WITH



Rob Melnick



Ric k Heffernon



Eugene Slec hta Nanc y Welch David Berman M o r r i s o n Institute for Public Policy Kirby Hoyt Jeramy Beals D e s i g n Wo r k s h o p

AND



Bill Hart



Ric hard Toon



Tom Rex, C e n t e r for Business Research, A r i z o n a State University Kent Hill, C e n t e r for Business Research, A r i z o n a State University Don Willie, Kimley-Hor n and Associates, Inc. Mark Turner, Kimley-Hor n and Associates, Inc. Ter r i Sue Rossi, Central Arizona Project James Holway, Global Institute of Sustainability, Ar izona State University Br uce Hallin, Salt River Project Ric h Siegel, Salt River Project

PREPARED FOR



Ar izona State Land Department Pinal County City of Mesa City of Apac he Junction Town of Queen Creek Salt River Project Central Ar izona Project Lincoln Institute of Land Policy/Sonoran Institute State Trust Lands Joint Venture East Valley Partnership

PUBLICATION COORDINATION Karen Leland, Mor r ison Institute for Public Policy DESIGN Karen C. Heard, C h a l k D e s i g n PHOTOGRAPHY Bill Timmer man



APRIL 2006



MORRISON INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY

S C H O O L O F P U B L I C A F FA I R S / C O L L E G E O F P U B L I C P R O G R A M S / A R I Z O N A S TAT E U N I V E R S I T Y



P O B OX 8 74 4 0 5 , T E M P E , A R I ZO N A 8 5 2 8 7- 4 4 0 5 / ( 4 8 0 ) 9 6 5 - 4 5 2 5 VO I C E / ( 4 8 0 ) 9 6 5 - 9 2 1 9 FA X W W W. M O R R I S O N I N S T I T U T E . O R G



STATE TRUST LANDS ARE AMONG THE GREATEST PUBLIC ASSETS



i n Arizona's por t f o l i o. S e t aside at statehood, t h e Arizona State Land Depar tment manages more than 9 million acres of trust lands on behalf of 14 beneficiaries. The largest of which by far is Arizona Public Education K through 12.The mission of the Land Department is to maximize revenues from these trust lands. In FY 2005, state trust lands generated $115 million for all beneficiaries, of which $101 million was designated to support public K-12 schools.These amounts are increasing rapidly as more state trust land becomes attractive for development in Arizona's urban areas. T h e parcel discussed in this report, " S u p e r s t i t i o n Vistas," s t a n d s out as the j ewe l among Arizona's trust lands. N o t only is it situated in the path of metro Phoenix growth, but it also borders thousands of acres of public land managed by the Tonto National Forest and U.S. Bureau of Land Management. E s t i m at e s of its total value run well into the billions of dollars. Wi t h so much at stake, we at the Land Department sincerely appreciate M o r r i s o n Institute for Public Policy's research, a n d the ideas and vision o f all who have contributed to this thoughtful discussion regarding the f u t u r e of the Superstition Vistas property. The Treasure of the Superstitions sets the stage for a continuing dialogue about the potential for Superstition Vistas, and indeed, all of Arizona's trust lands. We look forward to listening to and working with our beneficiaries, citizens, counties, municipalities, real estate businesses, and other interested p a r t i e s to make the most of Arizona's "treasure."



M a r k Winkleman S t a t e Land Commissioner, A r i z o n a State Land Department



Contents



EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vi T H E T R E AS U R E OF THE SUPERSTITIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 S U P E R ST I T I O N V I STAS ' GEOGRAPHY, CONSIDERATIONS, AND REALITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 F U T U R E T R E N DS : FORCES T H AT WILL SHAPE SUPERSTITION VISTAS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 3 S C E N A R I O S FOR THE FUTURE OF SUPERSTITION VISTAS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 7 T H I N K I N G B I G : F R O M I N F R AST R U C T U R E TO LIVABILITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 S I M P L E G R E E N : P E R FO R M A N C E STANDARDS FREE THE MARKET. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 S U P E R ST I T I O N V I L L E : A NEW WAY TO GOVERN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 S E I Z I N G THE OPPORTUNITY: WHAT NOW? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 S E L E C T E D R E F E R E N C E S . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31



SUPPOR T FOR THE TREASURE OF THE SUPERSTITIONS

Funding for T h e Tr e a s u r e of the Superstitions was provided by Pinal County, City of Mesa, City of Apac he Junction, Town of Queen Creek, S a l t River Project,Central Arizona Project, a n d Lincoln Institute of Land Policy/Sonoran Institute State Trust Lands Joint Venture. T h e Ar izona State Land Department contr ibuted substantial data and input. East Valley Partnership helped to coordinate events and outreach. The suppor t of these entities is ac knowledged g ratefully. The assistance of Mark Winkleman, Richard Hubbard, Heidi Schaefer, Jim Nelson, Andy Laurenzi, Supervisor Sandie Smith, Ken Buchanan, Mayor Keno Hawker, Wayne Balmer, John Kross, Larry Dozier, Terri Sue Rossi, Mayor Doug Coleman, George Hoffman, Mayor Wendy Feldman-Kerr, Mark Young, Stacie Burnett Harrison, Jennifer Whalley, Chuck Backus, and Roc Arnett is particularly appreciated.



ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Many organization leaders, elected officials, design and development professionals, public agency professionals, sc holar s, and community activists contr ibuted important information and insights to this repor t. Their assistance is appreciated. Also assisting with this repor t from Mor r ison Institute for Public Policy were Nora Coronado, Suzanne Ernstein, Daniel Hunting, Andrew Levi, Nielle McCammon, Dennis Mitc hell, Azadeh Osanloo, Cher ylene Sc hic k, Lili Stiefel, Alice Willey, and JD Godchaux.



A S P E C I A L T R I B U T E D av e Longey helped to point out the importance of Superstition V i s t a s to the future of greater Phoenix and was a dedicated participant i n t h i s s t u d y 's early stages. D a v e worked tirelessly to preserve and plan land, e s p e c i a l l y in the southeast Valley, s o it would s e r v e the people who live there now and in the future. D ave passed away in November 2005.The authors of and contributors to this report want to acknowledge Dave's critical r o l e i n g e t t i n g people t o t h i n k a b o u t S u p e r s t i t i o n V i s t a s a n d how its development could b e o f t h e g r e a t e s t benefit t o future generations of Arizonans.

Copyright �2006 by the Arizona Board of Regents for and on behalf of Arizona State University and its Morrison Institute for Public Policy.



EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

One cannot look at the Superstition Mountains without thinking of the legend of Jacob Waltz and his burro searching for lost gold. Today, however, it's clear that the treasure of these storied mountains lies not in mythical gold, but in a more tangible commodity -- land. Growth in greater Phoenix and the state continues to stoke the hunger for developable property. T h e Treasure of the Superstitions is the result of a group of public and private entities wanting to think in new ways about Arizona's unique state trust land in northern Pinal County. It is not a "plan" for Superstition Vistas. Instead, this report seeks to encourage stakeholders to develop an enduring vision.To that end, T h e Treasure of the Superstitions lays out three scenarios for the area's future. Eac h shows how policy decisions made in the near future could influence development over the next 50 to 60 years. F U T U R E TRENDS: FORCES THAT WILL SHAPE SUPERSTITION VISTAS To inform the scenarios, exper ts at Arizona State University and other organizations prepared background papers on population projections, urban living trends, and water resources. They concluded: � T h e Superstition Vistas population may some day reach 9 0 0 , 0 0 0 . T h a t number could be approached by 2060, b u t m ay take much longer, d e p e n d i n g on the rate of growth. � F i ve trends are likely to shape future urban lifestyles: a g i n g o f the baby boomers; m o re diversity; r i s i n g transportation c o s t s ; m o re technology and telecommuting; a n d embracing n ew ways of designing communities.

PRIVATE AND PUBLIC LAND SURROUNDS SUPERSTITION VISTAS

A r e a Land Ownership, 2005*

88



� Ever yone wants to know if there is enough water for Superstition Vistas. Water is a regional, rather than geographic, issue. As the metro area expands, Super stition Vistas will have to compete for reg ional water resources. Four regional sources with different costs, reliability, and availability could sustain the area: Central Ar izona Project, other Colorado River water, g roundwater, and reclaimed water. Super stition Vistas is well-positioned to compete.

AT 275 SQUARE MILES, SUPERSTITION VISTAS WOULD STRETCH FROM SKY HARBOR AIRPORT TO WILLIAMS GATEWAY AIRPORT

Co m p a r i s o n with East Valley Cities



Maricopa County Pinal County



vi

APACHE JUNCTION



Tonto National Forest



MESA



Superstition Foothills Gold Canyon



60



Williams Gateway



Queen Valley



QUEEN CREEK

Florence Junction

Castle Gate Pecan Creek Home Place Johnsons Farms Ware Farms



60



SUPERIOR



Superstition Views



Borgata at San Tan Heights Bella Vista Farms



79



Johnson Ranch Copper Basin Dobson Farms



Arizona Farms



Gila River Indian Reservation

Anthem @ Merrill Ranch



FLORENCE



287



Highways Levee Central Arizona Project Railroad Streams Airports Counties



SALT Developable SALT Preserve Proposed Other Public or Private Ownership Florence Military Reservation Potential Jurisdictional Waters Developments



Superstition Vistas Other State Trust Land BLM Municipalities



Military Leased Artillery Range National Forest Indian Reservation



0 1.25 2.5



5



7.5



10 Miles



* Superstition Vistas and surrounding areas are generalized from various sources; small holdings may exist that are not visible here. S o u rce : Design Workshop, Kimley-Horn and Associates, Inc., and Morrison Institute for Public Policy, Arizona State University, 2005.



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S C E N A R I O S FOR THE FUTURE OF SUPERSTITION VISTAS

THINKING BIG: From Infrastructure to Livability



By 2045, the Superstition Vistas region had grown to the point that the or ig inal name had largely disappeared into six urban villages.Wide swaths of open desert used to carry drainage, accommodate utilities, and provide recreation connected and separated these communities. At the outset of Superstition Vistas, one big thing was done right: m a j o r infrastructure was planned to ser v e the entire area. T h e Ar izona State Land Department asked for planning to locate the "tr unk lines" for water and sewer service, drainage facilities, rec harge sites, roads and freeways, utilities, and even trails and open space. Those corridors became the "network" a r o u n d which development p a r c e l s were planned. T h u s , a s the area grew, n o one argued about f r e e w ay locations or open space. The extensive planning helped the Land Department to p a c k a g e land logically for disposition. I n d i v i d u a l areas d eve l o p e d into distinct villages based on the vision of the developers who bought the parcels. As more villages were built, the benefits of the large-scale master planning became clear. New development neither overwhelmed road networks, nor resulted in inconsistent developments butting up against each other as was so often the case in the past. The "big thinking" of the Land Department about infras t r u c t u r e location became the hallmark of the area. Early criticisms of the high cost of planning and of the b u r d e n s imposed on early auctions disappeared as the a r e a grew and huge revenues flowed to the land trust and its beneficiaries. The experiment worked.

S I M P L E GREEN: Performance Standards F r e e the Market



Development could use any means to meet the water, energy, and "heat island" guidelines. Project approvals, otherwise, went through the normal process. By 2050, not all of the standards were fully achieved, but they had made a huge difference in the way the area grew. Superstition Vistas was recognized as one of the most dramatic "green" development success stor ies of the century and one of the truly "cool" spots on the planet.

S U P E R S T I T I O N V I L L E : A New Way to Govern



S o m e t i m e s who i s more important than what. I n 2040, t h a t was t h e obvious lesson of Superstition Vistas. I n s t e a d of trying to figure o u t what should be built at Superstition Vistas, t h e Arizona State L a n d Department decided to first establish who would guide the development over time. That decision drove everything and made S u p e r s t i t i o n Vistas truly different. I n 2008, t h e Land Depar t m e n t asked the Ar i z o n a L e g i s l a t u r e to change state statutes to allow "prei n c o r p o r at i o n " o n major tracts of state trust land. T h e idea was to put a city government in place before develo p m e n t and have the interim governing body create a master plan. That's how the City of Superstitionville, Ar izona came about. An appointed council created a detailed plan, including the residential density for every subdivision.The plan also set aside large areas in different locations for "employm e n t reserves." I n addition, t wo strong urban design concepts were implemented: 1) a true "downtown" would capture all of the shopping; and 2) a "no fences" r ule would ensure that the famous vistas would not be obscured and ever yone would know their neighbors. As people moved in, the Superstitionville City Council transitioned to elected members and political turmoil began. Most of the argument was about whether the or ig inal plan should be changed to make the town more c o m p e t i t i v e and less expensive. T h e debate slowed development and raised housing prices, but in the end the plan produced a distinctive community. R e a l i z i n g the dream of Superstitionville took longer t h a n expected and some short-term profits were s a c r i f i c e d . B u t by 2040, t h e nearly half built out town really did r e p r e s e n t a different kind of place that its residents were proud t o call home. W H AT NOW? P r e p a r i n g The Treasure of the Superstitions b r o u g h t a profound r e c o g n i t i o n that Arizonans are dealing with something larger t h a n even 275 square miles of potential development. M a ny of the i s s u e s and ideas presented in this study apply to the future of all c i t i e s and new growth areas in the Valley of the Sun, a n d perhaps t h e future of cities in general. Ta k e a piece of land. F i l l it with a million people. W h a t should it l o o k like? How should we decide? These are the questions and o p p o r t u n i t i e s that Arizona faces.

THE SUPERSTITIONS



vii



" S u s t a i n a b i l i t y " w a s the b u z z wo r d of the early 2000s. The term communicated the recognition that existing patter ns of settlement in the latter half of the 20th century placed too many demands on the earth's resources. The Ar izona State Land Department's most valuable asset w a s the subject of interest just when sustainability became a priority. Ever y homebuilder coveted the area known as Super stition Vistas. But at the same time, it seemed like every other per son had a plan for how the area could be "unique" or "sustainable." The Land Department looked for a way to deal with too many ideas. W h a t emerged from a major retreat in 2010 was the concept of "perfor mance zoning." Superstition Vistas became widely acclaimed because of the adoption of three basic "performance standards" that every development had to meet. � "100 a day" or 100 gallons per capita per day for all water use � "Half and half " for use of half of the per capita energy consumption in Arizona and half of all energy generated from renewable sources � "Cool 1" for raising the average nighttime temperature less than one degree over the average of the last 10 years

THE TREASURE OF



The Treasure of the Superstitions



BEFORE SEPTEMBER 18, 2003, SUPERSTITION VISTAS DID NOT EXIST.



There was just "all that state trust land in Pinal County." O n that day, East Valley Partnership president Roc Arnett, a member of a group i n t e re s t e d i n b r i n g i n g attention to the trust's holdings in Pinal C o u n t y and their r e l a t i o n s h i p to the southeast Valley, w a s driving home from a meeting about development in the region. As he came over a rise in the road, the entire sweep of the Super stition Mountains became visible. The panorama inspired a name for the trust land he and others had become so passionate about: "Super stition Vistas." The image of the Superstition Mountains is one of the great icons of the American West. It is a tableau of purple cliff faces rising above the desert foothills in a picturep e r f e c t outline: massive, rugged, and resonant. One cannot look at these storied mountains without thinking of the legend of Jacob Waltz and his burro wandering the Super stitions in searc h of lost gold. Today, however, we know the treasure of the Superstitions lies not in mythical gold, but in a more tangible commodity -- land. The state has a great hunger for developable land due to the flood of people drawn by weather, oppor tunity, and the lure of the West. They continue to move to Arizona, especially greater Phoenix, and their migration keeps it one of the fastest-growing regions of the U.S. Whether the Lost Dutchman's mine ever existed is doubtful. But the real prize to be found between Apache Junction and Florence is neither imag inar y nor obscure. The land now called Super stition Vistas is wor th billions of dollars. The owners of these rich lands are the beneficiaries of A r i z o n a ' s state land trust. Among the trust's roughly 9 million acres, Superstition Vistas has been called its most valuable asset. T h e Tre a s u re of the Superstitions is the result of an effort by a group of public and private entities to think about Arizona's unique proper ty in northern Pinal County in new ways. Seldom in the history of the U.S. has there been a chance to envision the future of one piece of proper ty this large, this strateg ic, and this close to a major metropolitan reg ion. Never has any such opportunity been coupled with public ownership and public education benefiting from the proceeds of development. Deciding how Superstition Vistas will be sold and developed into desirable communities will take time and money.This study is not in any sense a "plan" for Superstition Vistas. Instead, it seeks to encourage stakeholder s to develop an enduring vision. To that end, T h e Tr e a s u r e of the Superstitions lays out three very different scenarios for the area's future, eac h based on a review of development trends, inter views, and other researc h. The polic y choices are intended to provoke discussion and foster critical thinking. The scenar ios should stimulate serious consideration of what could -- and should -- happen and how decisions made today will determine the future. Before there can be a plan, there needs to be a vision. Before there can be a vision, there had to be a name.



8



Welcome to Superstition Vistas.



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Superstition Vistas' Geography, Considerations, and Realities



GEOGRAPHY: FROM NORTH TO SOUTH

S u p e r s t i t i o n Vistas is approximately the size of California's San Fer nando Valley and half again as large as Ir vine Ranch in southern C a l i f o r n i a 's Orange County. Closer to home, if the Superstition Vistas site were imposed over the East Valley, it would cover nearly a l l of the cities of Mesa, G i l b e r t , T e m p e , a n d Chandler. If it were o v e r l a i d on the City of Phoenix, it would cover the entire city below Dunlap Avenue. P h y s i c a l l y , Superstition Vistas' northeastern portion is part of the S u p e r s t i t i o n Mountains and includes craggy cliffs, deep canyons, and lush desert. A study done by the Superstition Area Land Trust (SALT), a nonprofit organization dedicated to protecting sensitive



lands surrounding the Superstition Mountains, looked at all of the Super stition Vistas proper ty north of U.S. 60 and recommended that approximately 25,000 northern acres be preserved permanently as a natural area. The land immediately south of the suggested preserve is sloping desert with creosote, palo verde, and saguaros.The SALT study designated this land as suitable for development. It is similar in c haracter to two developed areas nearby, Gold Canyon Ranch and Superstition Mountain. Fur ther south, par ticularly below U.S. 60, Super stition Vistas is flatter with less vegetation. Here the land forms a relatively uniform alluvial plain with numerous washes, many of which are of sufficient size to be regarded by the U.S. Ar my Corp of Engineers as "waters of the U.S." or "jurisdictional waters." An alluvial plain is a fairly flat, gently sloping landform found at the base of mountain ranges. This geog raphy requires careful planning so that drainage patterns are preserved. Designation of "jurisdictional waters" means that b e f o r e such washes can be disturbed for development, the U.S. Ar my Corps of Engineers must issue a permit under the Section 404 p r o g r a m . Past negative effects from development motivated the c r e a t i o n of the "404" process. In recent years, the Corps of Eng ineer s and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agenc y have become active in reviewing development proposals. It is likely that numerous washes in the Superstition Vistas area will affect what is developed and how it is done.



PRIVATE AND PUBLIC LAND SURROUNDS SUPERSTITION VISTAS

A r e a Land Ownership, 2005*



88



Maricopa County Pinal County

APACHE JUNCTION



Tonto National Forest



9



MESA



Superstition Foothills Gold Canyon



60



Williams Gateway



Queen Valley



QUEEN CREEK

Florence Junction

Castle Gate Pecan Creek Home Place Johnsons Farms Ware Farms



60



SUPERSTITION VISTAS COMBINES UPLANDS AND LOWLANDS

SUPERIOR



Maricopa and Pinal Counties Relief, 2005



Superstition Views



Borgata at San Tan Heights Bella Vista Farms



79



Johnson Ranch Copper Basin Dobson Farms



Arizona Farms



Gila River Indian Reservation

Anthem @ Merrill Ranch



M A R I CO PA

FLORENCE



287 79



Highways Levee Central Arizona Project Railroad Streams Airports Counties



SALT Developable SALT Preserve Proposed Other Public or Private Ownership Florence Military Reservation Potential Jurisdictional Waters Developments



Superstition Vistas Other State Trust Land BLM Municipalities



Military Leased Artillery Range National Forest Indian Reservation



PINAL



0 1.25 2.5



5



7.5



10 Miles



LEGEND



Highest



* Superstition Vistas and surrounding areas are generalized from various sources; small holdings may exist that are not visible here. Source: Design Workshop, Kimley-Horn and Associates, Inc., and Morrison Institute for Public Policy, Arizona State University, 2005.



Elevation Value

Lowest



Source: Morrison Institute for Public Policy, Arizona State University, 2005.



THE



TREASURE



OF



THE



SUPERSTITIONS



10



Most of the recent developments sur rounding Superstition Vistas Three existing state trust land uses are prevalent in Super stition are driven by either retirement housing or workers willing to accept Vistas: g razing, recreation, and military. Cattle are present at various l o n g e r c o m m u t e s to jobs i n m e t r o p o l i t a n P h o e n i x . S u p e r s t i t i o n times throughout the proper ty. The Arizona State Land Department Vistas, however, represents such a large development area that it may cancel grazing leases as it moves pieces of land into develop- cannot rely just on retirees and commuters. Jobs will need to be ment. Hiker s, hor sebac k riders, and hunters are just some of the created closer to the proper ty. Williams Gateway Airport and related g roups that value Superstition Vistas as wildlands. In addition, the entities are a major potential source of significant employment. Ar izona National Guard uses the Florence Military Reservation and Between Williams Gateway and Superstition Vistas the 7,800 acre nearby areas for training maneuver s through an arrangement with General Motors Desert Proving Ground is another prospective job t h e Land Department. center. Half of the proving ground has been sold to an investment g roup. The remainder C E N T R A L ARIZONA STATE TRUST LAND: may become available as well since GM has An Enduring Asset PROJECT CANAL indicated its intent to relocate the proving Central Arizona Project (CAP) is the agenc y g round outside of the U.S. In 1912, Arizona's first legislature created responsible for delivering Colorado River a three-member State Land Commission water to Maricopa, Pinal, and Pima counties. STATE TRUST LAND -- to make recommendations about the W h e n the CAP system was built across CURRENT REALITIES AND l a n d Congress granted to the state. The Super stition Vistas in the 1980s, the U.S. POTENTIAL REFORMS Bureau of Reclamation (the federal agenc y c o m m i s s i o n concluded that Arizona A s w e s t e r n states were admitted t o t h e in c h a r g e of large-scale w a t e r projects) s h o u l d not sell its trust land outright. U n i o n or territories organized prior to constructed levees to protect the canal from I n ste a d , the lands should be put to their statehood, the federal government conferred p o t e n t i a l floods. A f t e r completion, t h e " highest and best use" with decisions to o n t h e m v a r i o u s quantities o f land for M a r i c o p a County Flood Control District sell or lease based on the potential use of s p e c i f i c purposes, generally schools and b e c a m e responsible for them. Behind the each parcel. The State Land Department o t h e r public institutions. The land that levees, a flood control easement "ster ilized" wa s established in 1915 to manage the m a k e s up Superstition V i s t a s i s p a r t of that many acres against development. The levees l a n d trust and maximize its revenues fo r h e l d " i n t r u s t ." and easement will remain in place for some t h e 1 4 b e n e f i c i a r i e s . F r o m Arizona's time into the future. As Superstition Vistas o r i g i n a l approximately 10 million acres, S t a t e s have treated their trust land very d e v e l o p s , the "sterilized" land could be o cc a s i o n a l s a l e s have reduced the trust differently over time. Nevada auctioned off reconfigured and reduced in size to free up most of its holdings shortly after statehood. h o l d i n g s to a little over 9 million a c re s . more land for development. The easement New Mexico and Texas retained muc h of W h e n t r u st land is auctioned (a process por tion remaining might then also become their tr ust land and have earned substantial called "disposition"), the proceeds go to par t of a park or natural area. revenues from oil and gas wells located on t h e " p e r m a n e n t f u n d ," which is invested it. Ar izona decided to earn dollars for the Central Arizona Project recently has become s o that the income benefits t h e entity beneficiar ies through the "highest and best interested in creating a trail system along its d e s i g n a te d for each parcel. Among the use," whic h until the 1980s generally meant entire canal.Because the full length of the CAP states, Arizona has the largest permanent per mits for farming, mining, g razing, logg ing, c a n a l is fenced -- to protect the canal from fund created without oil and gas revenues and similar activities.This made sense because people and wildlife and people and wildlife from -- a p p rox i m a te l y $1.5 billion as of 2005. much of the land was in rural areas and such the canal -- any trail must lie outside the fenced pursuits played a prominent ro l e in Arizona's area. Since there is no development around Source: Arizona State Land Department. economy. Until just about 25 years ago, trust the canal now, Super stition Vistas represents lands' natural resources were more important o n e o f t h e b e s t o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o i n c o r p o r at e recreational amenities along the CAP in advance of development. than their possibilities for urban development.



EXISTING USES AND CONSIDERATIONS



D E V E LO P M E N T PAST AND PRESENT For years, metro Phoenix development pressure was only a remote influence on Superstition Vistas. Just a few developments in Apac he Junction and Gold Canyon Ranch came close to the area. Beg inning a b o u t 1999, h oweve r, n ew developments h a p p e n e d a l o n g t h e wester n and southern edges of Superstition Vistas, including Johnson Ranc h, Bella Vista Farms, and others. Building per mits started booming in 2002 and have continued to increase since.



A R I ZO N A' S URBAN L A N D S ACT In the late 1970s, Gover nor Bruce Babbitt recognized that some state trust lands were under increasing pressure for urban development and the timing of the land's release could influence metropolitan g rowth patterns. He appointed a task force to study the issue. The g roup identified parcels of land with development potential and suggested new legislation to allow the property to be sold to the pr ivate sector for residential and commercial uses.



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Following the task force's recommendations, the Arizona Legislature passed the Urban Lands Act (ULA) in 1981. The ULA's goal was for the state to receive "retail" prices for state trust land. The statute assumed that planning and zoning of state land before auction would increase its value and raise prices.The ULA created a system for planning state trust land for urban uses and then releasing it for sale or long-term lease. However, it stopped short of providing all of the tools needed.The ULA provided no means f o r the state to install the infrastructure required to achieve retail returns. The first auctions under the ULA took place in 1983. As the Land Department moved to sell various parcels, however, many residents and some jurisdictions objected. Since the l a n d had come to be seen as "public land"-- l i k e national parks and forests -- many expected it to remain open forever. The Land Depar tment was also accused of selling land too early and too cheaply and for furthering urban sprawl and low quality development. Despite the controversy, the Land Department u s e d the ULA provisions to entice private d e v e l o p e r s to invest in planning approxim at e ly 20,000 acres of trust land in a variety of locations. Planning in this context generally refer s to infrastructure. In addition, the Land Depar tment spent state dollars to plan 5,000 more acres. But the high land prices heralded in today's headlines were still a decade away.



ARIZONA'S STATE TRUST LANDS ARE FOUND IN EVERY COUNTY

State Trust Lands*



In the wake of the 2000 election, a group of homebuilders, d e v e l o p e r s , e d u c a t o r s , e n v i r o n m e n t a l i s t s , r a n c h e r s , a n d business leader s came together in the hope of finding a way to reform trust land operations and preser ve special areas. The group presented a reform proposal to the Arizona Legislature in 2004, but no action was taken. E ve n t u a l ly, e nv i r o n m e n t a l groups and the e d u c a t i o n community joined together to t r y to put a reform initiative on the 2006 s t a t e w i d e ballot. A s of this writing, i t has n o t yet been qualified. I n addition, a l t e r n a t i v e measures have been introduced in the Arizona Legislature. T h e proposed i n i t i a t i v e seeks to: � Set aside more than 600,000 acres of state trust land for natural areas, including a portion of the high priority lands identified by SALT � Create a Land Department Board of Trustees to help oversee the operation of the Land Department � Allow the Land Department to make right-of-way dedications and recognize agreements that could result in more open space � Create a new procedure for the Land Department and local jurisdictions to discuss land use



* Areas lighter in color reflect a "checkerboard" pattern of ownership. Source: Morrison Institute for Public Policy, Arizona State University, 2005.



EAST OF SUPERSTITION VISTAS:

M i d d l e Gila Conservation Area



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A broad group of interest groups f r o m hikers to four-wheelers and p u b l i c agencies including the U.S.



� Give the Land Department more flexibility Bureau of Land Management and the in obtaining ongoing streams of revenue P R O P O S E D STATE A r i zo n a National Guard have worked from major development projects T R U S T REFORMS B e c a u s e of the controversy associated with to g e t h e r to create a vision and goals � Per mit the Land Department to d e v e l o p m e n t of state trust land, t h e late keep some of its revenues to increase f o r th e M i d d l e G i l a Con s e r v a t i o n 1 9 9 0 s saw sentiment growing in favor of its capacity A r e a east of Superstition Vistas. refor ming the Land Department's operations. H O W MUCH TO GAIN FROM Muc h of this discussion was caught up in a T h i s scenic area is prized by many S U P E R S T I T I O N VISTAS? larger debate about growth and development for recreation and is also used N e a r l y all of the revenue that will be in Arizona, which spawned numerous proposals generated from Superstition Vistas will a n d ballot measures. I n November 2000, f o r training by the National Guard. suppor t K-12 education. I f the land at Ar izona voters considered a ballot initiative H a n d l e d with care, the Middle Gila S u p e r s t i t i o n Vistas yields an average of to require most Arizona cities and towns to $50,000 an acre, its entire value would reach draw "urban growth boundaries" around their C o n s e r v a t i o n Area is potentially an a b o u t $9 billion. F o r parcels that were c o m m u n i t i e s , b e y o n d which new developa s s e t for Superstition Vistas and all p l a n n e d and had infrastructure available, m e n t would be prohibited. I n reaction, t h e however, recent sales of state trust land have Ar izona Legislature passed measures referred o f Pinal County. See www.mgca.org. yielded as much as $500,000 an acre. Clearly, t o as Growing Smarter i n 1998 and Growing a solid strategy for Superstition Vistas could S m a r t e r P l u s i n 2000, w h i c h expanded A r i z o n a 's planning and z o n i n g enabling acts. O n e piece of increase the value of the area by releasing parcels to the market in G r o w i n g Smar t e r Plus w a s a constitutional amendment referred to an orderly sequence in order to extend infrastructure to additional t h e 2000 ballot to set aside 300,000 acres of state trust land as parcels, foster competitive bidding, and build on past development. per manent open space. In the election, voter s rejected both growth It could also make Superstition Vistas a showplace for the best in urban development. boundar ies and the open space proposal.



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Planning and State Trust Land: The Example of Desert Ridge

One of the most significant Urban Lands Act (ULA) successes is Desert Ridge, a master planned community in north Phoenix. D e s e r t Ridge was a 5,700 acre grazing lease in the 1980s. Development firm Northeast Phoenix Partners (NPP) acquired the grazing lease and approached the Arizona State Land Department about using the ULA to create a master planned community. NPP spent nearly five years and several million dollars to plan the property and obtain zoning approval from the City of Phoenix. To start Desert Ridge, the Land Department auctioned 550 acres under a commercial lease for an urban village core, a resort site, and a golf course. It also sold 780 acres in 1993 for residential development and a second golf course. NPP had the winning bid on all of this land, and the low price it paid justified t h e requirement that it plan and install the infrastructure necessary for the entire 5,700 acre Desert Ridge community. The sales history within Desert Ridge shows how, for good reason, values can escalate during development. The 780 acre parcel was sold at an appraised value of $12,000 an acre. NPP put in infrastructure to serve the purchased and adjoining l a n d s , bringing its investment in the property close to $ 7 5 , 0 0 0 an acre. NPP subsequently resold the land to homebuilders at approximately $85,000 an acre. Those sales were criticized because it appeared as though a company that bought land for $12,000 an acre had turned it shortly thereafter for $85,000. Desert Ridge has continued to develop, with active sales by the Land Department every year. The project now includes a Marriott hotel that is the largest in the state, a Mayo Clinic hospital, and the Desert Ridge marketplace with more than 1 million square feet of retail uses. All of this was made possible by the original plan and infrastructure. Recent parcels have sold for nearly $1 million per acre. Total sales by the Land Department to date are approaching $600 million. The success of Desert Ridge has been hard to repeat. Most of the land auctioned in the early 2000s was planned in the 1980s and early 1990s. While these dispositions turned out r e m a r k a b l y well, the press and some state leaders often l a m b a s t e d the mechanisms that had been used to attract private sector planning, causing most private planning of trust land to cease by the mid 1990s. As a result, the Land Department now is quickly running out of land that has been p l a n n e d and is ready for sale. No comparable large-scale plans on state trust land have come to fruition.



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D E S E R T RIDGE STANDS OUT IN THE NORTH VALLEY

D e s e r t Ridge and Surrounding Areas



S o u rce : Northeast Phoenix Partners, Inc., Undated.



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Future Trends: Forces That Will Shape Superstition Vistas



M a n y interacting forces will shape the way new lands develop t h r o u g h o u t the Phoenix metro area. F o r The Treasure of the S u p e r s t i t i o n s , e x p e r t s from Arizona State University and other i n s t i t u t i o n s were asked to study three of the most critical drivers: � Population growth � Urban living trends � Water resources T h e experts prepared "white papers" w i t h their findings. ( S e e www.mor r isoninstitute.org for the papers.) Complementing these studies are outlooks obtained from interviews with a cross-section of stakeholders. The papers and interviews are summarized below. G R O W T H , ECONOMY, JOBS: HOW MANY M I G H T CALL SUPERSTITION VISTAS HOME? W i t h Superstition Vistas located next to the currently urbanized por tion of the Phoenix area, projections for Superstition Vistas start with projections for the growth of the entire metropolitan area. U s i n g these, t h e Phoenix area's overall growth can be allocated geographically, w i t h the understanding that development in S u p e r s t i t i o n Vistas will be in competition with that elsewhere in Pinal County and Maricopa County. The forecast of the growth of the Phoenix area starts with an analysis o f growth up to the present time. W h i l e the growth rate of the Phoenix area has varied by year with the economic cycle, annual average growth over three economic cycles from 1970 to 1991 was relatively steady in number. In the most recent (1991 to 2001) cycle, however, numer ic growth was much greater. Since 2001, it appears that the pace of growth has been at least as great as during the last c ycle. This historical pattern suggests three scenarios for future numer ic population growth in the Phoenix area: � High Growth: Continued acceleration � M i d d l e Growth: S t a b i l i z a t i o n near the recent or current level � Low Growth: Slowing back to the 1970-1991 level M a ny factors will affect the future growth of the Phoenix area. With the region already one of the largest metro areas in the country, fur ther growth will mean that the "disamenities" that often attend to large metro areas, suc h as long commutes, pollution, cr ime, and increased cost of living, will become increasingly important. While eac h of the factors will impact Superstition Vistas and other developing areas, resource availability and other factors will determine relative growth rates among the various areas. Of key significance is the distance to employment, shopping, and entertainment centers from Superstition Vistas and other developing areas in all directions from central Phoenix.

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Employment centers are developing around the Phoenix area, but the historical employment center that stretches from central Phoenix t o central Scottsdale and central Tempe still is of considerable impor tance. As such, Super stition Vistas has a locational advantage over some currently developing areas that are farther away. T h e population projections for Superstition Vistas depend on various assumptions: � Adequate water at a reasonable price will be available. � Fuel prices (after adjusting for inflation) will not be substantially higher than at the current time. � An adequate transportation network will be built on a timely basis. � Housing prices will be less than in more centralized locations. � Employment opportunities will increase to the east of Tempe. � Working-age people will continue to migrate to Sunbelt locations. � Retirees will continue to move to Sunbelt locations, par ticularly locations near the fringe of metro areas. � Population growth will continue to move gradually outward from the Phoenix urban core in all directions. � The existing moderate population density of the developed Southeast Valley will continue in Superstition Vistas. A s s u m i n g that 245 square miles of land can be developed in S u p e r s t i t i o n Vistas (i.e., 3 0 square miles are set aside as a preserve) a n d the population density will be equal to the urbanized area ave r a g e (3,638 per square mile in 2000), t h e Superstition Vistas p o p u l a t i o n may reach about 900,000. T h i s population would be r e a c h e d in 2060 in the high scenario. I n the middle scenario, Super stition Vistas would have about three-quarters as many people in 2060. (See Table 1 on the following page.)

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2 01 0 2 02 0 2 03 0 2040 2050 2060



TABLE 1: SUPERSTITION VISTAS' FUTURE POPULATION DEPENDS ON MANY FACTORS

Population Projections, 2010-2060



High 35,000 175,000 340,000 530,000 720,000 900,000



Population Projections Middle 35,000 175,000 340,000 485,000 610,000 710,000



Low 20,000 40,000 60,000 110,000 190,000 270,000



A DA P T I N G TO MORE DIVERSITY A dramatic change in racial and ethnic composition will occur in the U.S., due in part to accelerating immigration. Between 2020 and 2040, Hispanics and Asians are expected to be the fastest-growing segments of the U.S. population 25 years of age and older, representing nearly two-thirds of the total change. Blacks will add almost 20% to that growth, while non-Hispanic Whites will account for less than 10%. Increased minority purchasing power will have profound effects on consumer markets. R I S I N G TRANSPORTATION COSTS Nothing has had more impact on the decentralization of urban living over the last 100 years than car s and trucks. Conver sely, nothing has more potential to alter cur rent patterns than escalating costs of such per sonal transportation. With the exception of a few price spikes, however, the average cost of oil has been relatively stable. Bar r ing a disr uption to oil production or similar event, most analysts see oil pr ices dipping over the next few years, then rising through 2030 as demand increases and supplies tighten. The highest forecasts for 2030 predict oil prices will settle at more than double the 1988-2002 long-ter m average using constant dollar s. Thus, a combination of increases above the long-term average and potential r ises in gasoline t a xe s could a d d an estimated $1.35 to the retail price of gasoline by 2030. Economists expect this level of price increase would cut total miles driven in the U.S. by 14% and reduce overall gasoline consumption by 32%. I N C R E AS I N G USE OF TECHNOLOGY AND T E L E CO M M U T I N G By all accounts, tec hnology will continue to change how people live and work, although the speed of adoption is difficult to predict. For example, the number of "telecommuters" so far has been much less than predicted. Most occupations are still location-dependent and reliant on face-to-face contact. Never theless, it is expected to play a larger role in the future. E M B R AC I N G ASPECTS OF NEW URBANISM A N D OT H E R D E S I G N D E PA R T U R E S Arc hitects and urban planners developed "New Urbanism" in response to the negative aspects of urban sprawl. Considered by many to be one of the most important design trends of the late 20th century, it seeks to slow the consumption of open space, reduce auto dependence, and build inviting neighborhoods that are diverse and community or iented. New Urbanist communities are conceived along the lines of histor ic villages -- compact, walkable, and transit friendly with a mix of residential and commercial uses. They usually feature town center s, smallish lots, and walkways to shops, restaurants, and jobs. New Urbanism is only one design trend that is seeking to change the cur rently dominant suburban style. Overall, a wide variety of data reveal that many homebuyers and residents are looking for something different in communities. The focus on everything close at hand to reduce driving and commuting is one change that resonates with many.



Source: Superstition Vistas: Demographic Issues, 2005.



HOUSING, TRANSPORTATION, LIFESTYLES: WHAT MIGHT PEOPLE WANT?

Urban living will undoubtedly evolve in coming years and numerous factor s will influence how preferences and tradeoffs play out. An examination of five of the clearest trends points toward possibly dramatic changes in communities and residents' outlooks on good places to live. ACCO M M O DAT I N G AGING BABY BOOMERS Early baby boomers, bor n between 1946 and 1955, compr ise the largest demog raphic g roup in the U.S. They will swell the ranks of retirees and the elderly over the next 40 years and drive demand in many areas. Among retiring baby boomers, approximately 30% are expected to make long-distance moves -- 500,000 per year by 2015 -- with many likely to move to Sunbelt states such as Arizona. Sur veys reveal that many early boomers are nervous about their financial future and many plan to fund their retirement by selling their pr imar y homes and working part time. They are also expected to travel less as they age, whic h should increase demand for housing close to services and amenities. In retirement, early baby boomers are expected to want: � Relatively dense developments with high quality, but smaller-than-average housing units � Easy access to ser vices, either by walking or transit � Nearby amenities suc h as shopping, dining, physical fitness activities, enter tainment, and educational opportunities � "Elder-adapted" housing so that retirees can age in place � Multigenerational communities � Access to the latest information, communications, and health tec hnolog ies



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FUTURE WATER RESOURCES: WILL WATER CONSTRAIN SUPERSTITION VISTAS?

One question raised consistently about Superstition Vistas -- and indeed about metropolitan Phoenix -- has been "Is there enough water for all of these people?" In asking this question, people often focus on whether sufficient water is geographically "right there" to serve future development. The metro Phoenix reality, however, is that the water supply and delivery infrastructure is sophisticated, integ rated, and regional in character with many different water suppliers. U n l i k e many other places in the U.S., an area like Superstition Vistas can develop without an immediate local water supply. Rather, it needs to compete successfully for available supplies in the reg ion. T h e water resource analysis completed as part of this study i d e n t i f i e d four potential regional resources that could sustain Super stition Vistas, eac h with a different degree of reliability, cost, a n d likelihood of availability. Superstition Vistas' d e v e l o p m e n t is likely to require water from all four sources over the long term and thus success in an increasingly competitive situation. 1



even toward the latter part of the planning horizon. Development, however, likely will need to meet new and increasingly stringent expectations about water conservation.



An Acre Foot of Water



An acre foot is the volume needed to cover one acre of surface to a depth of one foot or about 325,851 U.S. gallons. This is roughly the average amount of water used annually by a family of four.



STAKEHOLDERS' VIEWS: WHICH FUTURE DO THEY WANT?

S c o r e s of stakeholders were interviewed for their opinions and i n s i g h t s on potential development of Superstition Vistas.These Ar izonans included: representatives of environmental and community organizations, elected and appointed officials of federal, state, county, and municipal governments, public and private sector planners and arc hitects, and private sector developers. Stakeholder s were asked about desirable and undesirable uses for Super stition Vistas, potential models, influences, and the best approaches. Most responses from stakeholder s clustered around the broad "Wants" and "Don't Wants" presented in Table 3.



2



TABLE 2: WATER SUPPLIES WILL COME FROM FOUR MAIN SOURCES Potential Components Municipal and industrial subcontracts Indian leases Non-Indian agricultural water State Land Department allocation



Type of Water Supply Central Arizona Project



3



TABLE 3: THE DESIRED FUTURE FOR SUPERSTITION VISTAS STRESSES LIVABILITY Top 5 "Don't Wants" Endless sprawl characterized by cookie cutter "garage-burbs" with a sea of red-tile roofs 15



Colorado River



Indian leases Non-Indian water rights



Top 5 "Wants" Open, friendly, distinct urban places with real downtowns, diverse walkable neighborhoods, and a variety of nearby jobs Environmentally sensitive, sustainable communities with high quality of life Integrated multimodal transportation choices including highways, transit, and trails Special attention to washes and natural drainages as amenities and natural infrastructure



Groundwater



Lo c a l Water farms inside active management areas Water farms outside active management areas Recovered water



"Scrape-and-build" development with destruction of desert and no natural areas No long-term plan for roads, growth, and jobs



Reclaimed



Wastewater cleaned sufficiently to reuse for some uses



Source: Superstition Vistas: Water Matters, 2005.



P o p u l a t i o n projections show that Superstition Vistas could grow t o 900,000 people by 2060 in a "high growth" projection.Using the average demand of 186 gallons per capita per day estimated for new subdivisions in the metro Phoenix reg ion now, water demand for Superstition Vistas would be nearly 190,000 acre feet per year. Demand could var y significantly from these estimates depending on how Superstition Vistas is designed and on how water conservation policies and practices evolve over time. Super stition Vistas is well-positioned to compete for reg ional water resources. Because of its immediate access to the CAP canal, and because the Land Depar tment has some unusual water resources available, Super stition Vistas should be able to compete favorably



"Man-conquers-nature" infrastructure without sensitivity to the environment or people Confusing land release process with uncertainties for cities, county, and developers



Quality long-term planning for land use and infrastructure



Source: Morrison Institute for Public Policy, Arizona State University, 2005.



Inter viewees offered a range of examples of the type of developments they would most like to see, and those they would not. (See Table 4 on the following page.)



1 See Superstition Vistas Water Matters for details on regional water supplies and considerations for acquisition and use.



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TABLE 4: STAKEHOLDERS CITE POSITIVE AND CAUTIONARY MODELS FOR SUPERSTITION VISTAS Cautionary Models Cited Standard metro Phoenix developments with same-style houses and little sense of co m m u n i t y Anthem-style leapfrog development with little regard to location



Positive Models Cited Verrado, Arizona A DMB Associates "village" development close to the West Valley's White Tank Mountains Irvine Ranch, California Southern California development created by the Irvine Company beginning in the 1960s D C R a n c h , A r i zo n a A DMB Associates development in north Scottsdale Celebration, Florida New Urbanist community in central Florida developed by Walt Disney Company in the 1990s Seaside, Florida New Urbanist community in Florida designed by Andres Duany and Elizabeth Plater-Zyberk in the 1980s Stapleton Community, Colorado New Urbanist development of former Denver airport site by Forest City Enterprises beginning in 2001



Fe a t u r e Superstition Vistas as a large-scale m o d e l o f s u s t a i n a b l e development, a city w i t h t o t a l dedication to deploying the best technologies in energy production and resource conservation.

M O D E L OF SUSTAINABILITY I N T E G R A T E D INFRASTRUCTURE



Design and construct an integ rated infrastructure corridor that combines the CAP canal, flood control, a trail system, a north-south highway, and a utility c o r r i d o r . The goal is to greatly reduce overall size of easements, constr uction costs, and environmental impacts while making use of attractive natural systems to handle drainage and recharge.



Piecemeal subdivisions without comprehensive planning, such as Johnson Ranch and Rio Verde Existing sprawl cities and their suburbs, such as Los Angeles and Houston



Expand Southern Pacific's rail system through t h e Valley to add freight capacity and commuter access from Super stition Vistas through Williams Gateway, ASU, Sky Harbor, Phoenix, and Goodyear.

RAIL SOLUTIONS MILLION SOLAR ROOFS



Require electricity-generating solar roofs on all buildings in sufficient size to fulfill most of the daily needs of that building.



Sameness of many Arizona cities, such as Sun City, Lake Havasu, Gilbert, and Oro Valley



PA R A L L E L PLUMBING



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Older neighborhoods left to decay to support new fringe neighborhoods



I n s t a l l m u l t i p l e supply and wastewater plumbing systems in buildings to allow the capture, treatment, and reuse of water for appropriate purposes. For example, recycle treated effluent bac k to buildings to flush toilets, or supply untreated CAP water to wash cars or maintain landscaping.



Set aside large plots of untouched, yet developable, land in a land bank for future generations. As portions of the land bank reac h their maturity dates, residents will be able to decide how best to use the land to meet evolving needs and conditions.

LAND BANK



Source: Morrison Institute for Public Policy, Arizona State University, 2005.



I n t e r v i e we e s provided a we a l t h o f i d e a s about how to ensure a q u a l i t y future for Superstition Vistas, including:

CITY OF VILLAGES Create



small-town-sized villages between major washes with each one connected to the other s by high quality multimodal corridors that accommodate cars, but encourage alternate for ms of transportation from walking or hor sebac k to light rail.



Change state laws regarding incor poration so that Superstition Vistas can be incorporated as a city prior to development. Possible advantages include better master plan enforcement, early municipal infrastr ucture bond financing, and ordinances that allow traditional neighborhood development with nar row streets, minimum setbacks, and mixed uses.

PRE-INCORPORATED CITY MULTIPURPOSE WASHES Ta ke advantage of complex d r a i n a g e s by designing them as combination infrastructure (drainage, rec harge), recreation (trails), natural areas (riparian preserves), and wildlife habitat (migration, water, and food).



JOB AND HOUSING CONNECTIONS E n s u re that employment i s not an afterthought in Superstition Vistas. Make jobs at all economic levels available.



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SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE OF



SUPERSTITION VISTAS

T h e scenarios that follow are stories about possible f u t u r e s for Superstition Vistas. Based on the research conducted for this report, they depict a range of paths development could take as policy choices m a d e i n t h e n e x t few years influence long-term outcomes. E a c h scenario focuses on a different aspect of growth policy -- infrastructure, performance standards, and governance -- and the way that mechanism could be used to shape the future. These scenarios are intended to provoke discussion about visions, investments, and choices. They are neither intended to be prescriptive n o r exclusive. Scenarios are not supposed to be Utopian outcomes. Instead, they are expressions of reasonable expectations of how the future could turn out based on trend analyses. What is truly important is that Arizonans recognize that Superstition Vistas presents an extraordinary opportunity. Never before has an Arizona property the magnitude of Superstition Vistas been the subject of a broad public dialogue about the future. What policy choices will we make? How will it turn out? Perhaps the next few pages will provide a glimmer.

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THINKING



BIG



From Infrastructure to Livability



AS T H E SUPERSTITION VISTAS AREA WELCOMED ITS



700,000th new resident in 2045, the region had grown to the point that the original name had largely disappeared into six urban villages, eac h with its own identity. Residents live in places like "Peralta," a c o l o r f u l village of Hispanic-accented, patio-oriented homes; or "Reavis Ranch," a lower-density, territorial-style village of houses with b r o a d , shaded porches; or "Modera," a move-up village of Tuscani n f l u e n c e d mini palazzos. T h e s e c o m m u n i t i e s a r e connected and separated by wide swaths of open desert dedicated to carrying drainage, accommodating utilities, and providing recreation opportunities. What the residents don't often realize is that their villages work well because, decades ago, they were intentionally located, sized, and shaped by well-designed cor r idor s of infrastructure and natural areas that now form the "backbone" of the entire area. One big thing -- the planning of major infrastr ucture -- had been done right at the outset of Super stition Vistas. As a result, the area g rew with: � No fights over where a freeway should r un � No conflicts over using open space for development � No hear ings on where to put the power lines or build a generating plant � No condemnations when a road needed to be widened Looking back from 2045, it is hard to imagine how radical the Land Depar tment seemed when it decided to plan infrastr ucture for all of Super stition Vistas at once. The typical practice had been to auction off tr ust land in development-sized tracts and leave individual builders to deal directly with a city or county on where roads and utilities should r un. Only fairly vague "general plans" and ad h o c negotiations in the context of eac h development governed coordination from one area to the next. In 2005, however, the Land Department had reflected on its experiences and embraced the idea of selling a strateg ically placed parcel to a developer with the requirement to plan a much larger area. Based on the success of the "buy and plan" approac h in various areas, the Land Department decided to apply this still-new model to its "jewel," Super stition Vistas. In 2006, voters made the Land Depar tment's new path easier by passing a constitutional amendment refor ming state trust land operations. Ar izonans clearly wanted their Land Depar tment to think bigger, smar ter, and longer ter m. In early 2007, the newly appointed Ar izona State Trust Land Board of Trustees and the Land Commissioner announced a sweeping planning process for Superstition Vistas and adver tised for the largest consulting contract ever: a master infrastr ucture plan for the entire 275 square miles of land.



The goal was to delineate the major corridors for all "trunk line" infrastructure, as well as groundwater recharge sites. These corridors, which were more than half a mile wide in some areas,were the designated routes for major regional transportation, utilities, and recreational amenities. The 2006 reform measure allowed the Land Department to identify these corridors in advance and dedicate the land for infrastructure without having to auction it off to the highest bidder,as was required in the past. While many master planned community developers in 2007 were exper ienced in infrastructure planning, the scale of Superstition Vistas was truly unprecedented. Super stition Vistas was nearly 10 times the size of the largest master plan communities in metro Phoenix. Municipal general plans covered such large areas, but these were usually done after most of the development occurred or were created in pieces as the city annexed territory. Never before had plans been prepared to guide infrastructure development so far into the future. Often, the Superstition Vistas plans were much more specific than previous planning efforts. For example, the transportation element included surface streets, transit routes, and freeway corridors. This was revolutionary thinking: usually ADOT would only indicate the "possibility" of a freeway corridor in a general area. But here, the Land Department decided to draw hard lines for future roadways, and reserve the land until construction was warranted. Even more unusual, the transportation portion included "transit ready corridors" to coordinate transit with freeways and accommodate more transit as communities g rew. The cor r idor s, in turn, deter mined the location of drainage facilities and natural areas and provided plans for how the two would work together. This was really important to satisfy the requirements of the U.S. Ar my Corps of Engineers. The Army Corps in the 1990s had started using its jur isdiction over the "waters of the U.S." to review individual proposals affecting desert washes. This process resulted in long delays and often produced results at odds with what cities and residents wanted. A t S u p e r s t i t i o n Vistas, t h e Land Department had the resources to h i re engineers and hydrologists p e r m a n e n t ly. S o, t h e Army Corps p e r m i t t i n g p ro c e s s could be completed quickly for a vast area of l a n d . T h e result wa s a comprehensive plan to preserve, a n d often e n h a n c e, m a j o r wash corridors as drainages w i t h a c o m p re h e n s i ve n e t wo r k of trails linking the entire area together. T h i s made much w i d e r c o r r i d o r s possible, a n d the open space was expressly d e s i g n e d t o a l l ow people and wildlife t o m ove back and forth t h ro u g h o u t t h e a re a . E a c h corridor c o n n e c t e d to the 18,000 acre S u p e r s t i t i o n State Park carved from the most spectacular land at t h e n o r t h end of the area.



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The Land Department also decided where to use its access to water resources to support development at Superstition Vistas. Thir ty thousand acre feet of Central Arizona Project (CAP) water had been designated for the Land Department in 1986 and some of it was dedicated to this tract. Additionally, the Land Department struck a deal with CAP to move groundwater from state lands in western Ar izona to Superstition Vistas through the CAP canal. This decision meant that a comprehensive water supply solution was largely in p l a c e from the start. T h e result, t h e Land Department believed, would be higher land values and speedier development to meet the steadily growing demand for housing and business locations in the P h o e n i x metropolitan region. T h e Land Department's prediction tur ned out to be right. It took 18 months, $3 million, and 20 public hearings, but by the end of 2008 the State Trust Land Board of Trustees and Pinal County Board of Supervisors had approved the Superstition Vistas Area Plan. The document showed all of the backbone infrastructure corridors and identified locations of major development. The plan had only general land use designations -- highlighting where a village should lie. Plans for the communities themselves were purposefully vague, with details for each left to subsequent planning and development. Star ting in 2009, the Land Department began soliciting development interest in various villages. A private sector team was selected to develop the early phases of each village.That developer would share its profits from the area with the Land Department through a negotiated "Par ticipation Agreement."The first phase of a village typically covered about 2,000 acres. After its development was underway, the infrastr ucture opened up the rest of the village to potential developers, and parcels ranging from 50 to 500 acres could be auctioned by the Land Department directly to homebuilders and others. Initially, the Land Department took some heat for this approach. Au c t i o n i n g large chunks of land with an infrastructure obligation attac hed meant that smaller companies could not afford to bid. The early bids also seemed low to the press and legislature, because it was hard to understand the obligations and easy to just compare price per acre to other nearby sales.There was also concern that the infrastr ucture-burdened auction did not generate enough competition. But Arizona's newly elected governor in 2010 believed that master p l a n n i n g would pay off. T h e State Trust Land Board of Trustees ag reed, whic h helped deflect criticism and maintain the approach. By 2012, subsequent sales of parcels allowed many smaller builders to bid and the prices for infrastructure-served parcels started to rise above comparable private land sales. A s more villages were built, t h e benefits of the large-scale master p l a n n i n g became clear. N e w development neither overwhelmed



road networks, nor resulted in inconsistent developments bumping up against each other, as had happened before. By 2025, four of the s i x villages within Superstition Vistas were well underway. E a c h village had a distinctive character because different developers had been involved in the early village planning. Some of the development t o o k place within areas annexed by surrounding cities. S o m e was approved in Pinal County. In each case, the winning bidder on a parcel could choose which path to follow. In one case, for example, "KLP Development," a company known for its lifestyle marketing savvy, sought county approval for a high density, walking-oriented retirement community called "Urbano." It had gathering spots and trails...but no golf courses. By the time KLP sought Pinal zoning in 2012, golf was largely viewed by residents and officials as an inappropriate use of land and water. Parks and trails cost less to build anyway, required relatively little maintenance, and provided the image that was a mainstay of the company's selling strategy. Another major disposition resulted in a village based on modular m a n u f a c t u r e d homes. I n this case, t h e Land Department's 2017 auction covered about 1,400 acres. T h e buyer, " M o d Po d ," w a s a multinational company that delivered high quality, low cost modular homes that buyers and the media could not get enough of. Since the m e d i a n price of a traditional home in Arizona had just reached $524,000, residents embraced ModPod for its sleek 1,500 square foot models priced from below $300,000.The community garnered i n t e r n a t i o n a l recognition and spawned a host of competitors, i n c l u d i n g "BoKlok" a division of IKEA, t h e European furniture company. As a bonus, ModPod's success led the company to become a major employer in Pinal County, w h e r e it opened design and manufacturing facilities. The Land Department did not seek to enforce any particular types of development, believing that the private sector was better positioned to react to market trends. But in all cases, the disposition parcels had been shaped by the original master infrastructure plans. All of the communities connected to that trunk infrastructure and thus to each other. The original infrastructure plans were not perfect. Sometimes l i n e s had been too small to meet demand. B u t the location of the i n f r a s t r u c t u r e corridors did not change and that was the whole point of this new way of thinking. It was not that the initial decisions on location were always right -- it was that they were decisions.The area grew up relying on a network of infrastructure corridors that s h a p e d everything else. E a c h subsequent development reinforced the validity and importance of the network. Because of thinking big, the trust made a lot of money; the area grew i n a more orderly, m o r e desirable fashion than had been true of most of metro Phoenix; open space was preserved and integrated into the development. The experiment worked.



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Getting from Here to There: Today's Complex Transportation Planning Process

Planning for freeways, highways, streets, t r a n s i t , and other t ra n s p o r t at i o n fo r m s is a complex business in Arizona, as it is everywhere. Federal programs that pay for much of the planning require regional organizations, such as councils of governments o r COGs, to manage most transportation planning and implem e n t a t i o n i n the state. This regional orientation allows a single g ro u p of leaders to coordinate p l a n s , programs, and projects t o deal with common probl e m s a n d c h a l l e n g e s . F o r the Superstition Vistas area, two of Arizona's six COGs -- Maricopa A s s o c i a t i o n of Governments ( M A G ) and Central Arizona A s s o c i a t i o n of Governments (C AAG ) -- have responsibility. Arizona's iterative transportat i o n p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s often b e g i n s with studies b a s e d o n n e e d s identified by a COG, A r i zo n a Department o f Tra n s portation (ADOT), or both, and f i n i s h e s w i t h re c o m m e n d a t i o n s t o A D OT 's t ra n s p o r t a t i o n b o a rd . In addition, the Arizona Legislature may request specific s t u d i e s f o r particular areas. A t y p i c a l study involves an a ss e ss m e n t of current populat i o n , e m p l o y m e n t l e v e l s , and ex i s t i n g t ra n s p o r t a t i o n i n f ra structure. Population and e m p l o y m e n t projections are c a l c u l a te d , and transportation n e e d s a re modeled to satisfy those projections. Planners also c o n s u l t community l e a d e r s , subject experts, and other st a ke h o l d e r s a n d incorporate d a t a from other re p o r t s . O p t i o n s are produced to show what a l te r n a t i ve s might make sense in a study a re a . The study u s u a l l y d o c u m e n t s general corridors, environmental co n ce r n s , stakeholders' inputs, and broad funding e st i m a te s .

Source: Arizona Department of Transportation, 2006.



This high-level vision is discussed at "open houses" for re s i d e n t s and leaders, and their reactions and suggestions are i n co r p o rate d into an interim published report. Phase II of the study usually requires more detailed modeling of the alternatives p re s e n te d , an environmental impact statement, engineering st u d i e s , and additional citizen inputs. The results, a u g m e n te d by cost estimates, are incorp o r a t e d into a final recom-



TRANSPORTATION OPTIONS WOULD AFFECT SUPERSTITION VISTAS

Proposed State Transportation System, February 2006



m e n d a t i o n that is approved, c h a n g e d , o r r e j e c t e d by the A D OT board. Projects that a r e approved have funding sources determined and t h e n either ADOT or a COG f o r m a l l y accepts the project and adds it to the overall t ra n s p o r t a t i o n p l a n . Because transportation studies f o r Superstition V i s t a s and s u r r o u n d i n g areas include p a r t s o f M a r i c o p a and Pinal c o u n t i e s , the Arizona Legisl a t u re asked ADOT to work w i t h M AG and CAAG on the studies. The three organizations re l e a s e d t wo reports i n 2 0 0 3 , the SE Maricopa/Northern Pinal Tra n s p o r t at i o n S t u d y a n d t h e 2 0 03 Regional Tra n s p o r t at i o n P l a n . T h e s e considered freeways, arterials, non-motorized t ra n s i t (i.e., bike routes) and mass transit, and identified five corridors as potential locations f o r new freeways/highways. Four of these corridors -- W i l l i a m s Gateway Freeway, A p a c h e Junction/Coolidge C o r r i d o r, East Valley Corridor, and U.S. 60 Freeway Extension

21



-- c ro s s e d Superstition Vistas and were assigned to formal s t u d i e s . At the time of this r e p o r t , t h e c o n c l u s i o n o f t h e t ra n s p o r t a t i o n p l a n n i n g process was not yet known. However with S u p e r st i t i o n Vi st a s , ADOT appears to be approaching the area w i t h a v i ew to accommodating a va r i e t y o f possible f u t u re s .



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SIMPLE



GREEN



Performance Standards Free the Market



"SUSTAINABILITY" WAS THE B U ZZ WO R D OF THE EARLY



2000s. Sc holar s started the trend -- holding conferences, creating institutes, even offering degrees aimed at studying the ability of humans to live sustainably on the planet. From academia, the word passed into general use as a goal for development and lifestyle. The term communicated the recognition that existing patter ns of settlement in the latter half of the 20th century just placed too many demands on the ear th's resources. But recognizing that development should be more "sustainable" didn't really answer the important question: "What should we do to be sustainable?" Nor did the word explain the scale at whic h sustainability should be measured -- a development, a city, a reg ion, the whole planet? Ironically, the problem was not a lack of ideas, but too many options from too many people -- with no way of telling which ones really would make a difference. The Ar izona State Land Department's most valuable asset -- a 275 square mile patch of vacant desert on the edge of metro Phoenix -- was the subject of interest just when sustainability became a pr iority. Ever y homebuilder coveted the area known as Superstition Vistas: largely flat, easy to develop, close enough for people to "dr ive `til you qualify" and buy houses there. At the same time, it seemed like every community activist, environmentalist, academic , commentator, and politician had a plan for how the area could be "special" or "unique" or "sustainable." A highly visible report issued in 2006 said that Superstition Vistas presented an "unparalleled oppor tunity" to envision the future of an area that might one day be home to almost 1 million people. But the Phoenix region's history made people nervous. Newspaper headlines after the release of the repor t read: "Will We Blow It?" So, the ideas were legion and contradictory: Require every house to use effluent for landscaping. Build paths for electr ic vehicles so everyone could shop using a golf cart. Mandate a balance between houses and jobs. Put a front porch on every house. Eliminate private swimming pools. Raise the densities. Lower the densities. Ban red tile roofs. Require cultured stone veneer s on the front fa�ade of ever y house. Put in alleys. Put garages on the alleys. Add "granny-flats" over garages. Restr ict parts of the development by age. Prohibit age restr ictions anywhere in the development. Put in lots of golf, but with really low-water-use g rass. Eliminate golf but have lots of places to "power walk." Ban big box commercial. Or allow big boxes, but require their fronts to look like a lot of little boxes. Some ideas were too small. Some, like front porches, were better s u i t e d t o i n d i v i d u a l d e ve l o p m e n t s w i t h i n t h e h u g e t r a c t . P l u s , ever yone knew that trends like front porches would come and go in a development phased over 50 years. The Land Department was wor r ied that extending suc h restrictions over an area that could



eventually have 400,000 homes was unrealistic and might reduce land values. Other ideas were too big. Alter ing commuting patterns or getting people to buy more fuel-efficient vehicles were national problems being addressed by the marketplace and federal agencies. The fact that the high cost of gasoline was a nonstop topic of conversation by 2010 was certainly beginning to impact Arizonans' auto-centr ic mindset. When all the different proposals on how to make Superstition Vistas "special" and "better" were toted up, hundreds of pages of restrictions, regulations, covenants, and rules had been proposed. It soon became clear that trying to codify them into a single gover ning document would take years. A g rowing concern that development was being slowed by these circumstances led the Land Department to hold a major retreat in 2010 with developers, activists, and local government officials to discuss a concept or ig inated in the 1970s called "performance zoning." The idea was that, instead of long lists of "do's" and "don'ts" applied to every piece of property, simple goals would determine how development should perfor m when it was built. For example, instead of an absolute height limit on any building on a given piece of proper ty, a performance standard would say that development should not cast shadows on neighboring properties or block mountain views. Developer s could then c hoose how to achieve those goals with a var iety of market-sensitive designs. Perfor mance codes were adopted in a few small cities around the country, but proved to be tr ic ky to enforce and monitor in big, g rowing cities where building happened too quickly and at too large a scale to see if individual projects were really "performing." It was easier for bureaucrats to simply say "yes" or "no" based on clear, prescr iptive things like setbac ks and building heights. The 2010 retreat led to what people called the "Superstition Vistas debates," whic h raged for six intense months. But three major areas of perfor mance goals finally emerged as hallmarks of sustainable development on this piece of Sonoran Desert: water, heat, and energy. Out of the myr iad of ideas, three performance standards felt "just r ight." Fir st, for Superstition Vistas to grow as the Land Depar tment hoped, water use had to be managed carefully. After considering many technical mandates, a single perfor mance standard was adopted as a goal. Agg regate water use throughout the Superstition Vistas reg ion had to be planned to account for no more than 100 gallons per capita per day (gpcd).This number included residential, commercial, industr ial, and public uses. This standard was less than half of the gpcd for metro Phoenix in 2005, and 30% lower than Tucson, the most water-sensitive big city in Arizona. No other water mandate was imposed. Refer red to as "100 a day," every development or subdivision



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was required to submit a plan showing how the goal would be achieved before it could be approved. Some of the options included: limitations on landscaping; inter nal use of gray water; innovative plumbing fixtures; and higher densities. The method was left to individual proposals. One pattern that emerged was that it was easier to achieve the goal i n larger developments where a variety of measures could be e m p l oy e d at the same time. A kind of market even emerged, i n w h i c h a development with projected use below 100 (usually high density residential proposals) could partner with other projects to allow a higher average in another area. T h e second standard dealt with the "heat island effect." A r i z o n a State University (ASU) researchers had determined that the mass of pavement, roofing, concrete, and buildings in greater Phoenix had increased nighttime low temperatures dramatically as the urban reg ion expanded, creating an island of unusual heat. They showed where it was as much as 10 degrees hotter on a summer night than in the surrounding desert.There were lots of ways to mitigate the impact: m o r e trees, l e s s pavement, m o r e open space, c h a n g e s in building mater ials or different colored roofs. Doing so would have benefits not just for the comfort of residents -- it also reduced energy consumption, though one important technique, using plant materials, had potentially negative implications for "100 a day." Again, a simple perfor mance measure was adopted. At the time of approval for any development, a heat island projection was required based on ASU's models. The projected could add less than 1 degree to the average nighttime temperature over the average of the last 10 years. At first, builder s had a hard time understanding the "cool 1" standard, but they soon figured out how to deal with it. It actually proved relatively easy and inexpensive to alter roofing and building materials, eliminate unnecessar y paving, and adjust landscaping plans. The final standard was about energy. Anything built in Superstition Vistas had to use just half of the state's per capita level of energy consumption. And half of the energy in the region had to come from renewable sources, suc h as solar or wind power. This combination came to be known as the "half and half " standard, and it applied to commercial, industr ial, and residential uses -- no exceptions were allowed. If a project was too small to meet this standard on its own site, it could buy power from neighboring projects. For tunately, the local utility, Salt River Project, embraced "half and half " and saw the business opportunity it presented: Salt River Project (SRP) supplied the expertise and made some of the technologies available to help ever yone in Superstition Vistas meet the standard while building quality communities.



Developer s, residents, and businesses used many techniques to meet the standard. The most efficient appliances were featured in stateof-the-ar t energy-saving homes and buildings. Some neighborhoods, especially very dense ones, used a central heating and cooling plant instead of individual home units. A significant number of consumers sold home-generated power back to SRP, making it easier for the utility to meet its renewable energy requirements. Other than these three standards, development in Superstition Vistas proceeded in the normal course of approval. Modeling techniques were refined to project performance of development proposals against the standards -- just as traffic impact studies had been required on projects for years. The models weren't always right. Sometimes after projects were built, some of the techniques were less effective than anticipated, and so the models were refined over time. Initially, developments throughout Superstition Vistas looked quite different from those in other places. Plant materials, color s, and site or ientation were only a few of the differences. Visitor s saw photovoltaic panels everywhere and met residents who were enthusiastic about discussing the successes and failures of various technologies for sustainability. On the other hand, many residents didn't really notice. Over time, some areas looked more conventional, as developer s simply learned to incorporate the requirements into their nor mal products. In 2050, Super stition Vistas was recognized as one of the dramatic success stories of the century in "green" development. An international study assessed the effectiveness of each of the standards. "100 a day" had not quite been met. Though the area had the lowest per capita use of any large urban area in Arizona, the average hovered at about 106 gpcd. T h e "half and half " g o a l was half met -- per capita consumption at 50% was achieved. But the goal of one-half of the power in the area being from renewable sources had not worked out as well. Super stition Vistas drew power from all over Ar izona and the Western grid, and the goal of influencing generation within the area proved to be at odds with the interconnected nature of electrical supply. Still, the results were impressive enough to get attention. The most striking result was the effort to mitigate the heat island effect. The audit showed that, overall, the development of the area had not raised the nighttime low temperatures at all. In the face of t h e major crisis in global warming that was apparent by 2050, Super stition Vistas' success made it recognized as one of the truly "cool" spots on the planet.



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Irvine Ranch: Lessons on a Large Scale

Irvine Ranch, an agriculture company that began urban development on its land in 1960, is considered the largest privately master planned development i n the nation, and one of the most s u c c e s s f u l projects in U.S history. I r v i n e Ranch encompasses all or portions of several cities, including t h e City of Irvine, incorporated in 1970. Among the key factors of Irvine Ranch's success were: � A patient investment style based on land as a long-term asset, not a short-term commodity � Infrastructure planning for transportation, water supply, employment, and retail through build out � Plans for full-service communities where residents can live, work, shop, and recreate without leaving the area � Strong relationships with surrounding government entities and other potential adversaries � Flexibility to adapt to circumstances, such as development of the interstate highways, growth of technology industries, and incorporation of the City of Irvine � Ample land reserved for employment centers In the 1960s, encroaching southern California growth and rising property t a x e s pressured Irvine Ranch to e m b ra c e real estate development. Irvine Ranch management decided to undertake a long-term planning process that would guide development of the entire property for years t o come. Master planning started with the designs of architect William P e r e i r a . In support of a proposed U n i v e r s i t y of California campus, Pereira designed Irvine Ranch's first village, a 100,000 person "universitycommunity" on 10,000 acres adjacent to the new campus.

S o u rce : The Irvine Company, 2005.



T h e central idea was to balance

I R V I N E RANCH HAS FEATURED MASTER PLANNING

I r v i n e Ranch General Plan, 2005



economic growth with quality of life. Designs called for distinctive



� Location: Between Los Angeles and San Diego � Size: 93,000 acres, 145 square miles, and 52% of Superstition Vistas � Population: 230,000* � Jobs: 225,000* � Natural Areas: 50,000 acres � Largest City: Irvine, population 172,000*

* 2004 estimates.



residential villages connected by t r a i l s , roads, and transit. Leaders located employment centers, diverse housing choices, multiple t r a n s p o r t a t i o n options, shopping, e d u c a t i o n a l institutions, and open s p a c e in close proximity. A master i n f r a s t r u c t u r e design was developed that could accommodate build out in 2020 with about 3 7 5 , 0 0 0 residents.



I n many ways, Irvine Ranch has e x c e e d e d expectations. � Jobs currently outpace households more than three to one. Ranch residents also have higher-than-average incomes and shorter commute times than most Californians. � Tra i l s and bike paths augment roads and highways in connecting population centers. � Much of the housing is attached units, allowing more land for other uses. � Open space and long-term preserves cover more than half the total land area. � "Dual plumbing" systems recycle wastewater in homes and businesses. � Growth has produced diversity with only 57% of residents reported as non-Hispanic White in 2000.



25



Th e overall lesson of Irvine Ranch is that good ideas have staying power. While the development has n o t been without criticism, Irvine Ranch has followed its original plan and remain successful for nearly half a century.



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SUPERSTITIONVILLE



A New Way to Govern



SOMETIMES WHO I S M O R E I M P O R TA N T THAN WHAT.



In 2040, that was the obvious lesson of Super stition Vistas. Instead of tr ying to figure out exactly what should be built at Superstition V i s t a s or where the roads should be, the Arizona State Land Depar tment decided to establish who would guide the development over time. That courageous decision drove everything about the development and made it truly different. Typically, major new development in Arizona has occurred under one of two circumstances. One alternative is for a large tract of proper ty to be annexed into an existing municipality.At the request of at least one property owner, a city extends its boundaries to cover the parcel and then reviews and approves development proposals for that parcel under the city's planning, zoning, and subdivision regulations. The other alter native is for development to be approved by a county. In this case, the county's planning, zoning, and subdivision r ules apply. After a per iod of time, however, homeowner s in a county-approved development may decide that their community should incorporate, o r b e c o m e i t s ow n city. H o m e ow n e r s can force an election on incor poration through a petition procedure. A t Superstition Vi s t a s , t h e Land Department decided to seek a r a d i c a l ly different alternative. I n 2008, t h e Land D e p a r t m e n t a s ke d the Arizona Legislature to change state statutes to allow a n ew method called " p re - i n c o r p o r at i o n " t o be used on major tracts o f s t at e trust land. T h e idea was to put a city government in place b e f o re development and have this interim governing body create a p l a n , rev i ew proposals, a n d approve projects. O n e benefit of this n ove l approach was that the new community wo u l d n o t b e designed by a single developer. The model would also free the Land Department from making all of the long-term development decisions, t h e re by p rov i d i n g political c ove r. The resulting statute recognized a 200 square mile area centered in the middle of Superstition Vistas as the basis for the new city. This boundary a l l o w e d existing municipalities to annex some adjacent areas to expand their cities and left some additional land for future growth. The statute declared the area to be the City of Super stitionville, Ar izona. The legislation also provided for an appointed seven-member council to govern until a certain number of residents was reached.The Land Department appointed three members -- two retired East Valley educator s and one former real estate developer. The Pinal County Board of Supervisors selected three more to serve. Eac h of these member s lived on the edge of Superstitionville and was known as a political activist. The six council member s chose the seventh member -- the mayor -- a former elected official from Iowa named Thomas Hanson. He had moved to Queen Creek several years before and ser ved as chair of that town's Planning and Zoning Commission.



The seven council member s worked well together. Mayor Hanson proved to be a strong leader with fir m ideas. The Land Department and Pinal County provided the council with start-up funding, as did the Ar izona Legislature. Since expenses were few in a city where no one lived, almost all of the money could be used for planning. The council hired a planning director as its first employee and contracted with a nationally known planning fir m to prepare a comprehensive general plan.Without citizens to quarrel with the council's proposals, it was easy to adopt a sweeping set of land use plans, development ordinances, and design review guidelines. An independent review committee appointed by the legislature and the Arizona League of Cities and Towns cited all of Superstitionville's documents as state of the ar t when the council approved them in early 2009. The plan specified each parcel's use, including identifying ever y subdivision's density. The plan also set aside several thousand acres in different locations for "employment reserves" with the expectation that the area would have sufficient jobs for its residents. The plan featured two strong urban design concepts. Fir st, the consultants had advocated that a true "downtown" be created that would capture all of the city's shopping. In contrast to the usual metro Phoenix development patter n of shopping center s on nearly every corner, Super stitionville's downtown was designed as a main street district with g rocer y stores and other major commercial uses. Buildings along Superstition Boulevard could be up to eight stor ies tall. Small convenience markets and neighborhood services were scattered throughout residential areas, but any retail use of more than 5,000 square feet had to be located in the downtown. Mayor Hanson liked the downtown concept and also offered a planning idea of his own: no solid fences or walls around backyards or other areas. The mayor advocated a policy completely different from the standard single-family home patter n of metro Phoenix. Fences were re q u i re d only around swimming pools. Fences were allowed elsewhere, but every fence had to be transparent. The mayor believed this would help ensure the neighborliness that had contributed to the quality of life where he grew up. Following adoption of the comprehensive plan, the Land Department adver tised for the initial dispositions. Because development r ules were clearly set out in advance, the bidders could easily appraise exactly what was being offered. The result was competitive bidding and high pr ices for developable land. The pre-incor poration statute provided for a staggered transition to p o p u l a r ly elected officials. A f t e r 2,500 citizens established legal residence, one council member would be popularly elected. The balance of the council and the mayor were phased into elected status with one being added ever y two years thereafter.



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Despite the clear land use plans, development still had to respond to the market and there were some problems initially. Without enough "rooftops" to start development on Super stition Boulevard, re s i d e n t s were forced t o d r i ve more than 10 miles e a c h way for g rocer ies. Because the fir st roads were built with only two lanes, more development created traffic congestion before widening occurred. W h e n d ow n t ow n finally did get going, m a ny citizens s t i l l d rove fur ther to shop at locations with more choices and lower prices. Developer s also started to quarrel with the rigidity of the r ules. The City Council was heavily lobbied to allow other commercial locations. Some homebuilders complained that the "no fence" r ule cost them sales to other developments and that fences should be allowed in some neighborhoods. Developer s tried to have at least some of the employment land re-designated for houses since few employer s had materialized as yet. By 2013, four of the seven council member s, including the mayor, were up for election. The growing pains of Super stitionville were serious enough by that time that a slate was organized on an opposition p l a t f o r m protesting governance without representation. Using t h e Boston Tea Party as a touchstone and "no taxation without representation" as a slogan, three members of the slate were elected, but Mayor Hanson beat back his challenger with a strong "keep the faith" campaign. He found himself presiding over a deeply fractured council. The three new members, elected with strong development industr y support, favored more shopping center s and walls around bac kyards. The remaining council member s and the mayor vowed to stic k to the original plan. By 2015, even the Land Department felt that aspects of the original master plan needed revision. In the pre-incorporation statute, the Land Department had agreed that land use would be governed by the community's rules and that it had no power to overrule them. As a result, the Land Depar tment found itself allying with some developer s and some of the new city council member s to support revisions to the original plan. B y t h i s t i m e , M ay o r Hanson also h a d become concerned about congestion and the slow pace of commercial development, but still felt strongly about the strength of the original plan. He was espec i a l ly adamant a b o u t d e f e n d i n g the "no fence" r u l e, w h i c h gave Super stitionville a distinct appearance that was contributing to a g rowing national reputation. He successfully appealed to a broadbased coalition of residents who ag reed that the dream of a different community would be severely jeopardized by the proposed changes. In a bitterly contested decision, the council turned down the Land Depar tment's proposal for changes to Super stitionville's master plan. The tur moil slowed development of Superstitionville. Only proposals that did not deviate from the original plan in any detail got through.



But while the Land Department and some developers voiced frustration, a remarkable community began to emerge. Super stitionville d i d l o o k and f e e l different. No fences meant people knew their neighbor s and this led to a strong sense of community. Downtown became a distinctive destination that attracted people from outside the area, even though some national retailers refused to live with t h e t o u g h g u i d e l i n e s. T h e fights ove r the plan were tough, b u t Superstitionville had an extraordinarily high level of civic engagement. Every development proposal became a major topic of conversation.The local e-zine, whic h began largely as a justification for real estate ads, evolved into a community blog read and commented on by residents i n m o s t h o u s e h o l d s. The delays because of political tur moil also drove up the price of housing. The quality of development was high -- but so was the cost. Holding the line against land use changes meant that the large employment reserves had not been converted to housing. As a result, BioDisco, a brand-name, nationwide tech company that had long been courted by the Greater Phoenix Economic Council (now the economic development entity for Pinal County and its cities) announced relocation of its world headquarters to Superstitionville in 2018. In choosing Super stitionville, the company's CEO cited the "extraordinary small town character," the predictability of the land use process, and the availability of a parcel suitable for their use as reasons for the move. The company was also attracted by the area's high quality of life. BioDisco immediately relocated 2,500 high paying jobs, but the company's campus was designed to accommodate nearly 10,000 employees. As BioDisco's suppliers and "affinity" employer s followed, the dream of Superstitionville as a complete community where people could live, play, and work began to come true. As more council members were elected and more residents and businesses moved to Superstitionville, a moderating effect was evident. Business began to move toward a more normal municipal model. Occasional exceptions to the plan were allowed though they were held to a very high standard. In the end, despite its unusual bir th, Super stitionville's politics became like that of other cities. But for the metro Phoenix reg ion, one really unusual aspect of the debate over municipal growth dominated politics in Superstitionville: ever ything was measured against the original plan adopted by the fir st city council. Realization of the dream of Superstitionville took longer than expected. Some short-term profits were sacrificed for the sake of adherence to the plan. But by 2040, a nearly half built out town of about 400,000 really did represent a different kind of place and, indeed, one that its residents were proud to call home.



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Incorporation and Annexation: The Usual Ways to Deal with Urban Growth

I n A r i z o n a , a community of at least 1,500 residents in an uninco r p o ra te d area may become a municipality by means of i n co r p o ra t i o n . Th i s can occur in two ways: e i t h e r o rg a n i ze r s o b t a i n s i g n a t u re s from at least two-thirds of the qualified vo te r s in the community who approve of the incorporation, or o rg a n i ze r s gather signatures from at least 10% of qualified voters in the community, hold an election, and have a majority o f vo te r s approve. In practice, the incorporation process can be a long one. One example is Fountain Hills, Arizona. The town developed in the late 1960s on some 11,000 acres once belonging to a large cattle ranch, but did not incorporate until 1989. Organizers first had to get the permission of neighboring Mesa and Scottsdale, a task that required considerable bargaining on specific boundaries. Then it took three elections to secure voter approval from community voters. Part of the problem organizers faced was opposition from a group that favored annexation with Scottsdale.



First, however, the proposed municipality m u s t qualify a s a "community." Arizona law defines that as a "locality i n w h i c h C o n s i d e r i n g legal conditions a n d past practices in Arizona, s o m e p a r t s of Superstition a b o d y o f p e o p l e re s i d e s i n Vistas are likely to be annexed m o re or less proximity h av i n g i n to existing cities and towns. c o m m o n i n t e r e s t s i n s u c h CITIES AND TOWNS ARE BASIC A r i zo n a municipalities i n t h e s e r v i c e s a s p u b l i c h e a l t h , L o c a t i o n of Incorporated Local Government Entities p a s t have been aggressive p u b l i c protection, fire proteca b o u t a n n e x a t i o n because t i o n , a n d w a te r which bind t h ey viewed territorial expanto g e t h e r t h e p e o p l e o f t h e s i o n a s e s s e n t i a l to their we l l a re a , and where the people b e i n g . The annexation p ro ce ss a re acquainted and mingle in g i ve s them more control over b u s i n e s s , social, e d u c a t i o n a l , developments on their bounda n d recreational activities." aries a n d it a l l ows them to Th e community m u s t also be c a p t u r e increased revenues "urban in nature," which means f ro m sales taxes generated by t h a t it "not include large r e t a i l businesses. Increasing a re a s of uninhabited, rural, or t h e i r population size also fa r m lands." State law gives helps revenues because co u n t y b o a rd s of supervisors A r i zo n a municipalities receive the task of determining whether s t a te aid based o n p o p u l a t i o n a n a re a is a community a n d formulas. City and town u r b a n in nature. officials, h o w e v e r, are often s e l e c t i v e about the areas Since the early 1960s, state law t h e y target for annexation, h a s d i s co u ra g e d communities passing up opportunities where f ro m incorporating c l o s e to t h e a n t i c i p a te d revenues d o ex i st i n g m u n i c i p a l i t i e s by n o t exceed the cost of prorequiring permission from v i d i n g m o re services. those municipalities. The h o p e f u l c o m m u n i t y c a n Source: Morrison Institute for Public Policy, Arizona State University 2005. Given the size of Superstition r e q u e s t permission d i r e c t l y Vistas, considerable room to incorporate from a city o r is available for existing tow n , or it can formally a s k t o b e a n n exe d by a neighboring city or town, and if this request m u n i c i p a l i t i e s to expand, new cities to be created, and some i s n o t g ra n te d within 120 days, the community is considered u n i n c o r p o r a t e d areas to rem a i n a s p o t e n t i a l s p a w n i n g g ro u n d s for new communities. to have met the state's permission requirements.



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WHAT NOW?

The most impor tant message for reader s to take from The Tr e a s u r e of the Superstitions is to engage now and not let go. The ideas presented here are only a first step in the dialogue about the future of this proper ty and the surrounding communities. Oppor tunities abound, but with each policy decision or lost oppor tunity the field is nar rowed. Too often choices about development and g rowth are made by default, without collaboration or the realization that a small nudge of trajectory today can produce an enor mous difference down the road. For the Arizona State Land Department, this study suggests a number of significant issues to be addressed in the planning of Super stition Vistas: � Major issues of flood control, wash preservation, trails, transpor tation and utility cor r idor s, and cooperation among jurisdictions should be addressed early and on the broadest possible scale. � The full resources of the Land Department should be employed to deal with water supply issues for this area as a whole, rather than leaving solutions to individual developments. Doing so could bring greater value to the land. � D i s p o s i t i o n a n d d e ve l o p m e n t s h o u l d b e m a n a g e d u s i n g t h e m o s t c r e a t i ve public/private mechanisms the Land Department can devise. These mechanisms will work better at larger scale and they will work still better if proposed state trust land reforms are enacted. Finally, for all of us who worked on this effor t, there came a profound recognition that we were dealing with something larger than even 275 square miles of potential development. Frankly, the issues and ideas presented in this study apply to the future of all the cities and new growth areas of the Valley of the Sun, and perhaps the future of cities in general. Take a piece of land. Fill it with a million people.What should it look like? How should we decide? These are the questions and oppor tunities that Arizona faces.



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Selected References & Interviewees



Arizona Department of Transportation tpd.azdot.gov/planning tpd.azdot.gov/planning/pdf/CorridorDefStudies_ov.pdf Arizona Transportation Factbook 2002 tpd.az.gov/reports/pdf/2002factbook.pdf Arizona State Land Department Annual Report 2003-2004. State of Arizona, 2005. www.land.state.az.us City of Irvine www.ci.irvine.ca.us/ Forsyth, Ann, Reforming Suburbia: The Planned Communities of Irvine, Columbia, and the Woodlands, Berkeley, University of California Press. 2005. Forsyth, Ann. "Who Built Irvine? Private Planning and the Federal Government," Urban Studies, 39 (13): 2507-2530. 2002. Fyffe, Nicole, Choices of Unincorporated Communities in Arizona, Institute for Local Government, Tucson, May 2001. "Growth Management and Open Space Protection in Arizona: Current Tools and Progress," Issues in Brief, Morrison Institute for Public Policy, 2001. Hill, Kent, Future Urban Development: Possible Changes in Structure and Lifestyles, Morrison Institute for Public Policy, November 2005. Irvine Company www.irvinecompany.com/ Irvine Ranch www.goodplanning.org/ranch/ Maricopa Association of Governments www.mag.maricopa.gov www.mag.maricopa.gov/archive/AZ-COGs/ Municipal Incorporation in Arizona, League of Arizona Cities and Towns, Phoenix, December 2000. Nature Conservancy of California nature.org/wherewework/northamerica/states/california/ nature.org/wherewework/northamerica/states/california/ partnership/art9808.html nature.org/wherewework/northamerica/states/california/ preserves/art9758.html Orange County www.oc.ca.gov/ Rex, Tom, Superstition Vistas: Demographic Issues, Morrison Institute for Public Policy, November 2005. Rossi, Terri Sue and Grady Gammage, Bruce Hallin, James Holway, Rich Siegel, Superstition Vistas: Water Matters, Morrison Institute for Public Policy, November 2005. Souder, Jon A. and Sally K. Fairfax, State Trust Lands: History, Management, and Sustainable Use, University of Kansas, 2000. Southeast Maricopa/Northern Pinal Area Study Final Report www.mag.maricopa.gov/ Superstition Area Land Trust www.azsalt.org/ "Urban Growth in Arizona," Issues in Brief, Morrison Institute for Public Policy, 1998.



ERIC ANDERSON Maricopa Association of Governments DAN AUSTIN Arizona Winter Visitors Association CHARLES BACKUS Superstition Area Land Trust SANDY BAHR Sierra Club WAYNE BALMER City of Mesa TREVOR BARGER Espiritu Loci STEVE BETTS S u n Co r DUANE BLACK S u n Co r GENEVIEVE BRICKER ADOBE BOB BROSCHEID Arizona Game and Fish Department KEN BUCHANAN Pinal County THE HONORABLE DOUG COLEMAN City of Apache Junction GLEN COLLINS Middle Gila Conservation Partnership LARRY DOZIER Central Arizona Project MIKE ELLEGOOD Maricopa County Public Works DON FARMER Arizona Wildlife Federation THE HONORABLE WENDY FELDMAN-KERR Town of Queen Creek JOHN GRAHAM Sunbelt Holdings THE HONORABLE KENO HAWKER City of Mesa BRENT HERRINGTON DMB Associates GEORGE HOFFMAN City of Apache Junction MATT HOLM Maricopa County MIKE HUTCHINSON City of Mesa



DIANNE KRESICH Arizona Department of Transportation LYNN KUSY Williams Gateway Airport MAXINE LEATHER Central Arizona Association of Governments LINDA LEIGH Central Arizona College DAVE LONGEY Land and Community Planning Consultant JOHN MCNAMARA DMJM Harris Planning NATE NATHAN Nathan & Associates, Inc. RAYNA PALMER Apache Junction Chamber of Commerce HIMANSHU PATEL Town of Florence KEVIN PETERSEN Peterson Properties Management, Inc. LARRY QUICK Town of Florence THE HONORABLE TOM RANKIN Town of Florence JOHN ROTTER Pinal County Flood Control District MARK SLEETH Kitchell Development Company ANDY SMITH Arizona Department of Transportation THE HONORABLE SANDIE SMITH Pinal County Board of Supervisors LARRY STEPHENSON Gila River Indian Community DON STEUTER Sierra Club TODD WAKELY Trend Homes JOAN WARREN Central Arizona College MARK WINKLEMAN Arizona State Land Department JOHN WRIGHT Arizona Education A ss o c i a t i o n



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MORRISON INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY CO N D U C TS RESEARCH THAT INFORMS, A DV I S E S , A N D ASSISTS ARIZONANS.



A PA R T OF THE SCHOOL O F P U B L I C AFFAIRS (COLLEGE OF PUBLIC PROGRAMS) AT ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY, THE I N S T I T U T E IS A BRIDGE BETWEEN THE UNIVERSITY AND THE C O M M U N I T Y. THROUGH A VARIETY OF PUBLICATIONS AND F O R U M S , MORRISON I N S T I T U T E SHARES RESEARCH RESULTS W I T H A N D P R OV I D E S S E RV I C E S TO P U B L I C O F F I C I A L S , P R I VAT E SECTOR LEADERS, A N D COMMUNITY MEMBERS WHO S H A P E PUBLIC POLICY.



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