From education to work: is Arizona prepared?: the alignment project report

              FROM EDUCATION TO WORK: IS ARIZONA PREPARED?

The Alignment Project Report



Submitted To: Arizona P-20 Council Phoenix, Arizona



February 14, 2006



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TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS .............................................................................................................................. I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................... 1 1. 2. 3. RECAP OF EDUCATION FINDINGS ........................................................................................... 2 RECAP OF INDUSTRIES AND OCCUPATIONS FINDINGS ................................................... 3 ALIGNMENT: KEY FINDINGS..................................................................................................... 3 3.1. 3.2. 3.3. 3.4. ARIZONA'S SECONDARY SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ALIGNED WITH THE REQUIREMENTS FOR POSTSECONDARY STUDY AND THE WORKPLACE ................................................................................. 4

READINESS FOR POST-SECONDARY STUDY NEEDS TO BE THE FLOOR FOR HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES NOT THE CEILING ..................................................................................................... HIGH SCHOOL RIGOR IN APPLIED MATH AND READING COMPREHENSION IS CRITICAL .................. RELEVANCE IN THE CLASSROOM IS REQUIRED..............................................................................



5 6 8



FROM EDUCATION TO WORK: IS ARIZONA PREPARED? ........................................................ 10 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................................... 10 SECTION I. PREPARING YOUTH FOR POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION AND CAREERS .. 13 1. 2. OVERVIEW: HIGH SCHOOL AND THE TRANSITION TO COLLEGE IN ARIZONA .... 14 ARIZONA INDICATORS .............................................................................................................. 15 2.1. 2.2. 2.3. 2.4. 3. NEED FOR IMPROVEMENT .......................................................................................................... 15 DROPOUT RATES AND TEST RESULTS ........................................................................................ 17 ACT........................................................................................................................................... 20 SAT AND ADVANCED PLACEMENT ............................................................................................ 20



RESEARCH AND POLICY ANALYSES REGARDING PREPARING STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE AND CAREERS .......................................................................................................... 21 3.1. 3.2. 3.3. SCOPE OF THE PROBLEM ............................................................................................................ 21 THE NATIONAL HIGH SCHOOL IMPROVEMENT AGENDA ............................................................ 23 HIGH SCHOOL PREPARATION THEMES ....................................................................................... 24 ARIZONA GRADUATION REQUIREMENTS.................................................................................... 29 POST-SECONDARY SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS.......................................................................... 30 DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION AND COLLEGE ENTRANCE REQUIREMENTS ......................................................................................................................... 31 SECONDARY AND POST-SECONDARY DATA COLLECTION .......................................................... 34



4.



ARIZONA GRADUATION REQUIREMENTS AND POST-SECONDARY ALIGNMENT. 29 4.1. 4.2. 4.3. 4.4.



5. 6.



ARIZONA STANDARDS AND CURRICULA COMPARED.................................................... 35 PREPARING YOUTH FOR POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION AND CAREERS: KEY FINDINGS........................................................................................................................................ 38



SECTION II. INDUSTRIES AND OCCUPATIONS ANALYSIS......................................................... 42 1. INDUSTRIES AND OCCUPATIONS KEY FINDINGS ............................................................. 42



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1.1. 1.2. 1.3. 1.4. 1.5.



THERE IS A GAP BETWEEN THE NEEDED EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT LEVEL IN DEMAND OCCUPATIONS COMPARED TO THE CURRENT WORKFORCE. ........................................................ 42 WORKFORCE PREPARATION FOR GROWING OCCUPATIONS WILL REQUIRE AN UNDERSTANDING OF THE UNIQUENESS OF EACH INDUSTRY. ....................................................................................... 42 UNDERSTANDING OF SKILL LEVELS ACROSS INDUSTRIES REQUIRES ANALYSIS OF SEVERAL

CLASSIFICATION SYSTEMS SINCE NO ONE SKILL DESCRIPTOR EXISTS TO PROVIDE A COMMON LANGUAGE ACROSS SECTORS..................................................................................................... 43 ENGLISH, MATH, CUSTOMER SERVICE, AND READING, ACTIVE LISTENING AND CRITICAL THINKING ARE THE MOST FREQUENTLY LISTED KNOWLEDGES AND SKILLS REQUIRED FOR THE SEVENTY (70) KEY OCCUPATIONS INVESTIGATED IN THIS STUDY............................................... 43 ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSIONS HELD WITH BUSINESS LEADERS CORROBORATED FINDINGS FROM THE VARIOUS CLASSIFICATION SYSTEMS AND ENHANCED THE UNDERSTANDING OF SPECIFIC INDUSTRY NEEDS. ...................................................................................................................... 44



2. 3. 4.



APPROACH TO CHOOSING TARGETED INDUSTRIES ....................................................... 47 2.1. SPECIAL CONSIDERATION OF HIGH TECHNOLOGY ..................................................................... 50 GENERAL PROFILE OF ARIZONA OCCUPATIONS ............................................................ 50 METHODOLOGY FOR CREATING LIST OF KEY OCCUPATIONS .................................. 52 4.1. 4.2. REFINING LIST OF OCCUPATIONS FOR INDUSTRY ANALYSIS...................................................... 53 SOURCES AND CRITERIA FOR IDENTIFYING TARGET OCCUPATIONS: EDUCATION AND SKILLS INDICATORS............................................................................................................................... 55 CONSTRUCTION.......................................................................................................................... 58 HIGH TECHNOLOGY ................................................................................................................... 60 LIFE SCIENCES ........................................................................................................................... 67 TOURISM & TRAVEL .................................................................................................................. 72 TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS ................................................................................................ 73



5.



INDUSTRY PROFILES.................................................................................................................. 56 5.1. 5.2. 5.3. 5.4. 5.5.



SECTION III. CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................ 76 1. 2. 3. SUMMARY OF MAJOR FINDINGS ........................................................................................... 76 SUMMARY OF MAJOR GAPS .................................................................................................... 77 NEXT STEPS ................................................................................................................................... 77



ATTACHMENT 1: ARIZONA, ADP AND SUCCESS FOR ALL ALGEBRA STANDARDS EXAMPLES COMPARED............................................................................................................. 78 ATTACHMENT 2: SELECTED HIGH SCHOOL RESEARCH AND POLICY ORGANIZATION PROFILES ....................................................................................................................................... 88 ATTACHMENT 3: EDUCATION AND SKILL DESCRIPTORS ...................................................... 96 ATTACHMENT 4: OCCUPATIONAL EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS, WAGE ESTIMATES, AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS FOR ARIZONA ............................................................ 105 ATTACHMENT 5: FREQUENCY OF KNOWLEDGES FOR TARGETED OCCUPATIONS .... 115 ATTACHMENT 6: FREQUENCY OF SKILLS FOR 48 TARGETED OCCUPATIONS.............. 118 ATTACHMENT 7: JOB ZONE CLASSIFICATION.......................................................................... 120



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SELECTED REFERENCES ................................................................................................................... 122 ENDNOTES .............................................................................................................................................. 125



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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Arizona leadership, the business community, and educators all agree that a well trained and educated workforce is the foundation for a growing economy. Ongoing work is being conducted to identify targeted growth industries and to fully define the occupations within each industry. Most importantly, this work is attempting to identify the skills and education requirements of high demand occupations, and assess the linkages and gaps between high school graduation and requirements for entering the labor force or post-secondary education. To conduct this analysis, both objective research data and subjective opinions about what is needed to prepare for work or post-secondary education were gathered. Using national data on industries and occupations, Arizona-specific databases, national best practices, and considerable input from the business and education community, we were able to define occupations in targeted industries and define, through several nationally recognized sources, the training and education required to enter and successfully compete in key occupations. In addition, we identified the requirements for post-secondary education in Arizona and compared them to high school exit expectations. This report examines the expectations for high school graduates that have been defined through: Analysis of workplace demands, with particular focus on Arizona industries, Analysis of post-secondary demands, with particular focus on Arizona institutions, and Analysis of national trends and research findings regarding the demands of the workplace and of post-secondary institutions and the ingredients of successful high school preparation. The report also provides an analysis of the way Arizona's current requirements for high school graduation and academic programming compare with these expectations, that is, the extent to which Arizona high schools are in a position to prepare graduates to meet the expectations of post-secondary institutions and employers.



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1. RECAP OF EDUCATION FINDINGS Findings concerning high school requirements and post-secondary education include: The secondary system in Arizona is not well aligned with the requirements for post-secondary study and the workplace ? Arizona's high school graduation requirements do not adequately prepare students for post-secondary study and careers, The academic programming and graduation requirements in place in Arizona high schools are not sufficient to equip students with this set of necessary skills and knowledge. Students may graduate from Arizona high schools without having taken the courses required for post-secondary admission. Moreover, there is scant evidence of agreement between the secondary and post-secondary communities about what should be required of high school graduates in terms of the actual content of required courses. In addition, course title alone is not a sufficient indicator of quality or rigor. The expectations for Arizona students embodied in the requirements for graduation, the state's academic standards, and the performance levels required for passage of the state graduation assessment appear to be significantly less demanding than national experts recommend. Significant numbers of Arizona high school students are not meeting Arizona requirements. Arizona does not provide adequate oversight and management of the bridge from high school to further schooling and career. Data gaps prevent Arizona from pinpointing alignment gaps. In particular, data that could be of significant value to the state in strengthening the bridge between high school and college--such as documentation of the need for remediation for entering students across Arizona colleges and universities, of the educational and occupational outcomes for Arizona high school graduates, or of the varying ways in which districts augment the state requirements for graduation--are not currently collected or publicly available.



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2. RECAP OF INDUSTRIES AND OCCUPATIONS FINDINGS Findings concerning training and education requirements for key occupations include: Only 1.6% of new jobs in Arizona's growing occupations paying above the median wage will not require some post-secondary education. Arizona's strategic industries varied greatly by median wage and growth in actual numbers of jobs; however, they are all critical to Arizona's economic health because of high growth and/or high value. There is a gap between educational attainment levels needed for occupations in demand compared to the current workforce. Workforce preparation for key occupations will require an understanding of the uniqueness of each industry. Understanding of skill levels across secondary education, postsecondary education and industries requires analysis of several classification systems since no one skill metric exists to provide a common language across the three sectors. The top three knowledges and top three skills for the 70 key occupations include reading comprehension, active listening, critical thinking, English language, mathematics, and customer and personal service. Roundtable discussions held with business leaders corroborated findings from the various classification systems and enhanced the understanding of specific industry needs. 3. ALIGNMENT: KEY FINDINGS Arizona has consistently ranked among the top five states in job creation for the last several years. The industries Arizona has targeted to sustain job growth into the future include many high wage occupations that require significant skill levels and educational attainment. The challenge Arizona faces is different from that facing many other states when it comes to future job growth. Many states are trying to create an environment that will bring high paying jobs, while Arizona needs to prepare for an environment that is expected to produce good paying jobs.



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High schools are critical in developing a workforce ready to participate in the growth expected in Arizona. Currently, Arizona high schools are not successfully providing all students with the skills and education level needed to fill the key occupations of the future. Analysis of national data, labor market information, and interviews with key stakeholders, as well as analysis of Arizona's education system has revealed five significant themes regarding the preparation of Arizona students for the future. These themes are presented as targets for improvement--for each we have identified the primary gaps that need to be addressed. 3.1. ARIZONA'S SECONDARY SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ALIGNED WITH THE REQUIREMENTS FOR POST-SECONDARY STUDY AND THE WORKPLACE



There is a significant gap between current requirements for high school graduation in Arizona and the admissions requirements of the state's university system. Because the requirements are not well articulated across different parts of the education system, students may proceed through Arizona high schools without taking required courses in a sequence that allows them to become eligible for admission to the fouryear institutions. Students who do not perceive themselves as college bound at an early stage are at a particular disadvantage, because they may meet graduation requirements while taking a sequence of courses that neither meets basic four-year college entrance requirements nor provides them with the necessary skills and knowledge for success in the workplace. Gaps Graduation requirements are insufficient; the required numbers of courses in several areas fall short of what is needed/recommended for both college entry and career success. The state standards do not appear to hold students to sufficiently ambitious and explicit expectations. The state assessment, AIMS, used as a graduation requirement, is a 10th grade assessment, and does not appear to set a sufficiently high bar. Large percentages of Arizona students are not performing well, even in terms of the state's current standards of proficiency and success, as demonstrated by scores on AIMS, dropout rates, and other indicators.



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The state is not effectively managing the articulation between high school and post-secondary institutions and the workplace by guiding students successfully, ensuring they meet requirements, or collecting and acting on data that could identify specific areas of need. Clearly some Arizona students fare very well. Nevertheless, this report has demonstrated that significant challenges exist for ensuring that high school youth are well prepared for productive futures. The demands of the new economy dictate higher levels of education, and success in higher education requires a level of preparation that is elusive to many. This constitutes a call for action. Arizona can take advantage of the range of tools for improving high school performance ? and also for aligning standards, curriculum and instruction, professional development and assessment -- to position its high schools to meet the needs of its citizenry and to foster economic growth. 3.2. READINESS FOR POST-SECONDARY STUDY NEEDS TO BE THE FLOOR FOR HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES NOT THE CEILING



The skill requirements needed to fill the jobs in Arizona's strategic industries will require some post-secondary education. While not every high school student will go on to earn a two- or four-year degree, most high school students who want a high wage/demand occupation will need continued postsecondary training and education. Exhibit 2 in the report indicates the need to have every high school graduate prepared to take advanced training and have college ready skills, especially in math and reading. Many high schools throughout the country effectively track students toward either college or work, offering different programming for each group, and this differentiated preparation is evident in Arizona as well. This approach does a disservice to all students. With 85 percent of projected new jobs requiring post-secondary education and work experience, high school graduates will need to be both college and career bound. In fact, an individual with a two-year associate's degree and two years of relevant work experience is just as competitive in the labor market as an individual with a four-year college degree and limited work experience. This circumstance obligates high schools to make sure that all students are prepared to take college level courses, and that all students develop both the hard skills (e.g. math and reading) and soft skills (e.g. teamwork, critical thinking) they will need throughout their careers. Gaps Interviews with Arizona industry leaders revealed that skilled occupations in strategic industries may not require a college degree but may require advanced level training. Those interviewed believed high schools were not emphasizing the need for rigorous preparation for students who were not planning to enroll in college right after graduation.



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A significant alignment gap is also evident in the comparison of high school graduation requirements and the college entry requirements, most notably for math and science. High school graduation requirements include two credits each of math and science (this equates to two years of math and science.) However, the admissions requirements for Arizona's three four-year institutions include four years of math and three years of science. Even among students who meet requirements and matriculate at these institutions, many must take remedial coursework to prepare for college-level study once they arrive. Table 5 shows that less than half of high school graduates meet the basic university eligibility requirements. Put simply, Arizona high schools are not adequately preparing many of their students, regardless of whether they aspire to a four-year degree, a two-year or other degree, or to enter the workplace directly. If Arizona is to provide its strategic industries with a skilled workforce, readiness to undertake collegelevel work will need to be a minimum requirement for every high school graduate. It is also unclear that the AIMS sets an adequate standard to drive high school expectations. At present, a minority of Arizona's students are, as a result of counseling, parental encouragement or individual district requirements, taking college preparatory courses such as AP, taking ACT and SAT exams, and enrolling in college. Many others find that option foreclosed before they are ready to think realistically about their goals. Gaps in the achievement of population subgroups, lack of alignment between college entrance requirements and graduation requirements, and dropout rates all attest to this problem. At the same time, analysis of the demands of strategic industries reveals the inadequacy of the non-college preparation. The preparation of Arizona's students is critical because the key occupations that are expected to grow in Arizona can easily move to other states in which graduates are better prepared. Arizona, however, has taken a step forward in having work standards identified in the high school. How those standards are best integrated into the curriculum and properly assessed is a critical next step. 3.3. HIGH SCHOOL RIGOR IN APPLIED MATH AND READING COMPREHENSION IS CRITICAL



The occupational research conducted for this investigation validates the comments most often heard in the industry interviews ? math and reading skills are critical. As outlined in Attachment 1 math and reading are the most critical skills needed in the growing occupations targeted by Arizona. Specifically needed are applied math and reading comprehension; employees will need not just to know mathematical equations but to know how and when to apply them. They will need to be able to use both mathematical formulas and problem-solving techniques to address problems in the job. They will need the ability to understand the meaning and purpose of written text in memos, policies, regulations and other work related materials. Gaps



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As discussed throughout this report, the achievement gap between disadvantaged students and their peers, low AIMS proficiency rates, difficulty entering and staying in college are among the indicators of insufficiently demanding high school expectations.



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3.4.



RELEVANCE IN THE CLASSROOM IS REQUIRED



To meet the demands of the future workplace high schools need to prepare students not only in the hard skills (i.e. math and reading) but also to develop student interest in and awareness of how those skills can be applied. For example, Arizona industry leaders in the life science field expressed the need to have more students interested in math and science by working to engage students with more exciting lesson plans and lab experiences. This need is confirmed in the national comparisons. For example, the National Science Foundation has Arizona ranked in the bottom quartile of states when it comes to producing college graduates in science and engineering. Secondary career and technical education (CTE) can play an important role in helping Arizona students meet the demands of the new, knowledge economy. However, it is essential that CTE programs be of sufficient academic rigor as well as meet state-of-the-art industry standards. The need for relevance in the high school classroom also extends to developing soft skills. The occupational analysis in this report demonstrates critical thinking, teamwork, and listening are almost as important as math and reading skills. Industry interviews also revealed the need for these soft skills in the areas of attendance and work ethic. Gaps Employers in Arizona and post-secondary institutions in Arizona are in accord with national researchers and policy analysts in defining ambitious expectations for high school graduates in terms of both hard and soft skills, as well as academic achievement. While the skills and knowledge needed for work in various industries and for post-secondary study at different levels and in different fields vary somewhat, core skills are needed irrespective of students' specific goals. This set of skills and knowledge includes, but is not limited to: Mathematics (e.g. arithmetic, algebra, geometry, calculus, statistics, and their applications); Science and scientific thinking (e.g. computer science and engineering, applied technology, life sciences, etc.) English language skills (e.g. reading comprehension/reading for information, writing and oral communications skills); and Thinking and learning skills (e.g. critical thinking, listening and observation skills, and judgment and decision making).



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Similarly, ensuring that career and technical education, as well as other career awareness and exploration programs, are integrated with strong academic content, will provide opportunities for students to see the application of their studies to a variety of career paths. Several areas of inquiry outside the scope of this report might warrant additional attention. There is genuine consensus among researchers, policy analysts and practitioners that high quality, rigorous standards are at the core of efforts to align systems. This report offers preliminary analysis of AZ content and performance standards, which suggest a need for detailed content analysis conducted by disciplinespecific experts. In addition, comparison of instructional strategies, curricular materials and course content and rigor in and among individual high schools and districts was outside the scope of this report. Finally, Arizona secondary career and technical education programs, not explored in detail here, can be an important component of efforts to raise standards and prepare youth for postsecondary education and careers.



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FROM EDUCATION TO WORK: IS ARIZONA PREPARED?

INTRODUCTION Arizona is making considerable strides in designing an economic development strategy that positions the state for growth. The state recognizes that the key to economic success is ensuring that qualified workers are educated and trained for highgrowth, high-wage jobs in strategic industries. Several long-term, intensive studies have been conducted for certain industries that provide the state with detailed requirements for occupations within those industries. The state recognizes, however, that additional industries need to be investigated, and that an analysis is needed to identify commonalities across industries to identify the education and training requirements of the key occupations predicted to grow in the future. An additional ingredient in this analysis is an assessment of whether high school preparation is adequate to prepare youth to go on to post-secondary education. Armed with this type of analysis, Arizona state leaders can begin to identify a course of action that will ensure its citizens are prepared to fill the jobs of the 21st century or succeed in post-secondary education; that is, that high schools are preparing students to enter the workforce or post-secondary education . Arizona's P-20 Council, chaired by Governor Janet Napolitano, has focused on these issues as a part of its mission to ensure that all Arizona children, from preschool through college, have wide opportunities to learn and are held to high standards. A key goal for the P-20 Council is to improve the alignment of high school, college, and workplace expectations so that all students can be well prepared to succeed in postsecondary study and careers. To that end, the P-20 Council engaged Public Works: Working with identified high-growth and emerging industry sectors to define the educational and training requirements for key occupations within those sectors; To identify the level of preparation required to adequately prepare youth for post-secondary education and careers; and To assess the alignment of K-12 public education with industry needs and post-secondary education requirements. This analysis required an approach in which both objective research data and subjective opinions were gathered about what is needed to prepare for work or postsecondary education. Thus, Public Works gathered data on industries and occupations from national and Arizona-specific studies and databases, worked closely with the Governor's Office representatives to interpret initial data gathered, participated



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in a P-20 Council meeting, interviewed P-20 Council members individually, talked with key stakeholders in business and education, and conducted business roundtables. The report is divided into three sections. In Section I: Preparing Youth for Post-Secondary Education and Careers we examine the expectations for high school graduates through: Analysis of Arizona's education system and the achievement and preparation of Arizona students, Analysis of post-secondary demands, with particular focus on Arizona institutions, and Analysis of national trends and research findings regarding the demands of the workplace and of post-secondary institutions and the ingredients of successful high school preparation. This report assesses the current requirements for high school graduation compared to the academic preparedness of students for matriculation and success in higher education and compared to minimum requirements defined by the state's public university system. As in the analysis of occupations, information about academic preparedness and success was gathered from national and local data, key informant interviews, state leaders, and approaches recognized both nationally and locally for effective practice in this area. This analysis looks at current Arizona high school performance requirements and university system admission requirements, and identifies the discrepancies. We also framed the issue of high school preparedness in the context of nationally accepted research and policy thinking about high school improvement and reform. Our research characterizes what a successful high school graduate looks like and compares this to preparation currently available in Arizona. Section II: Industries and Occupational Analysis identifies key industries and occupations and analyzes the education and training levels needed to compete in the workforce of the 21st Century. The first challenge for this analysis was to establish a common definition of industries and occupations. To do so, we used two widely accepted classification systems: the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics O*Net classification system to standardize definitions of industries and occupations. This lead to a reformulation of the original 12 industry sectors identified in the Request for Proposals as eight categories based on the NAICS and O*Net.



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The second challenge was to define the educational and skill requirements identified for each occupation. No one "translator" is available to provide a common language or metric for discussing skills or education needed to succeed in the strategic occupations. We therefore used four generally accepted classification systems for identifying education and skill levels. These are: O*Net Job Zone Bureau of Labor Statistics Education and Training Levels O*Net Knowledges and Skills WorkKeys? We reviewed the national data in light of information available that is unique to Arizona. Recent studies on four specific industries in Arizona identify occupations and readiness requirements for four industries ? construction, advanced communications and information technology, sustainable systems, and bioscience. One study is pending final release (advanced manufacturing); however, state officials were able to provide some preliminary results that were also included in our research. A study of the tourism and travel industry is also underway; however, it will not be completed until later this year. For purposes of this study, we chose to move forward with our own analysis of the tourism and travel sectors and related occupations. The completed and pending studies do not, however, cover all industries needing to be targeted, nor do they look more globally across industries to determine commonalities or to assess if high schools are preparing students to meet the job requirements. This current investigation, therefore, did not duplicate the work of these studies, but focused on this cross-industry analysis, what educational and training requirements are needed, and how this compares to how well high school graduates are being educated to meet these requirements. Finally, Section III. Conclusion brings together the occupational and postsecondary requirements analyses and lists the key findings that are drawn from the research. Observations are made concerning the alignment of K-12 graduation requirements with industry needs and post-secondary entry requirements. Current Arizona graduation requirements are compared with research about preparedness, and gaps in Arizona's current capacity to prepare students for post-secondary education and careers are identified.



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SECTION I. PREPARING YOUTH FOR POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION AND CAREERS

INTRODUCTION This first section of the Public Works study of the preparedness of Arizona's high school students for post-secondary study and the workplace focuses on the adequacy of academic preparation in Arizona. It begins with an overview of high school and the transition to post-secondary study in Arizona. We review specific aspects of Arizona students' achievement and the requirements for post-secondary study, and compare Arizona's standards and curricula and those that have been defined in other contexts, in order to gain perspective on the level of challenge presented in Arizona high schools. Finally, we set Arizona's circumstances in the national context of research and policy regarding high school preparedness. Attachments provide source material regarding the preparation of American youth for post-secondary study and careers. The substance of this report is presented in two sections because two distinctly different types of analyses have been brought to bear on the broad question of how well Arizona's education system is aligned with the expectations of employers and postsecondary institutions in the state. Public Works has taken the approach that a meaningful analysis of the education and skill requirements needed to promote and sustain growth must be based both on a technical analysis of workforce needs and a substantive analysis of the complex factors that go into the successful preparation of high school graduates. The findings regarding Arizona's education system are based on: A review of publicly available information regarding Arizona's high school offerings and graduation requirements, standards, and testing program; A review of admissions requirements for higher education in Arizona; Interviews with Arizona personnel responsible for aspects of K-12 and post-secondary education; A review of data and materials supplied by state personnel; and A detailed review of research, reports, and other materials from scholars and national research and policy organizations that have studied the bridge between high school and higher education, such as the Bridge Project at Stanford University, Achieve/The American



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Diploma Project, the Education Trust, American College Testing, and the National Governors Association. 1. OVERVIEW: HIGH SCHOOL AND THE TRANSITION TO COLLEGE IN ARIZONA Arizona's population of high school-age students is among the fastest growing in the nation, and the rapid growth is projected to continue for at least the next decade. There is reason for concern that some of these students may not be as well prepared for post-secondary study and careers as they could be. We begin with the specific questions this report is designed to address: 1. Are Arizona high school students well prepared for post-secondary study and careers? 2. Is high school preparation in Arizona well coordinated with higher education requirements, both for admission and for successful completion of coursework? 3. Do Arizona's K-12 and higher education systems provide adequate oversight and management of the bridge from high school to further schooling and career? 4. Are Arizona's high school standards challenging, by comparison with other definitions of what high school students should be expected to know and be able to do? The answer to all four questions appears to be "no." Regarding question one, achievement data, the evident need for remediation among many recent high school graduates beginning post-secondary study, and the concerns that employers and higher education faculty raise about the qualifications of many recent graduates all indicate that some Arizona high school students are not adequately prepared. Regarding question two, there is a significant gap between current requirements for high school graduation in Arizona and the admissions requirements of the state's university system. Because the requirements are not well articulated across different parts of the education system, students may proceed through Arizona high schools without taking required courses in a sequence that allows them to become eligible for admission to the four-year institutions. Significant numbers of students ? particularly minorities and low income students ? either drop out of high school or graduate unqualified for a four-year institution. Significant numbers of those who enroll in both two-and four-year institutions must enroll in remedial courses to master material that should be covered in high school, which means that, in effect, their learning of basic skills is paid for twice. While the percentage of Arizona residents possessing a



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bachelor's degree is similar to the U.S. average, the growth in this percentage has slowed in recent years. Moreover, while Arizona has a large number of highly educated retirees, the number of BA holders among the labor force is lower.i Regarding question 3, Arizona has in place a system for coordinating the transition from two-year institutions to four-year institutions that has served as a model for other states. However, comparatively little coordination is institutionalized between the K-12 system and the two- and four-year systems. Data that could be of significant value to the state in strengthening the bridge between high school and college (such as, for example, documentation of the need for remediation across Arizona colleges and universities, of the educational and occupational outcomes of students who enroll in Arizona high schools, or of the varying ways in which districts interpret and state requirements graduation) are not currently collected or publicly available. Regarding question 4, initial analysis of Arizona's defined academic standards for high school students and the requirements for graduation--including the performance thresholds necessary for passage of the required AIMS assessments-- and comparison with standards and expectations defined in other contexts both suggest that Arizona's expectations of its high school students are relatively low. Detailed content analyses of the standards and evaluation of the AIMS assessment and its defined performance standards conducted by objective subject matter experts would provide a far more detailed picture of expectations in Arizona, but initial review suggests that the bar could be set significantly higher. This report makes no recommendations regarding steps the state might take to address issues raised. The analysis of Arizona's system, set in the context of national experts' thinking about the issues with which the P-20 Council is concerned, is intended to provide the basis for both decisions about what additional detailed analyses might be needed--such as a comprehensive, subject-by-subject evaluation of high school standards-- and decisions about policy or other actions that could strengthen the system. 2. ARIZONA INDICATORS 2.1. NEED FOR IMPROVEMENT



Arizona has reason for concern about the achievement of its young people. Not enough students complete high school on time. Of those who do, far too many are not adequately prepared for post-secondary study and careers. A significant achievement gap is evident between advantaged and disadvantaged students for each of these indicators. Arizona received a grade of D for the preparedness of its students for higher education from the National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, with particular reference to the preparation of minorities.ii Arizona was also cited in a recent Education Week article as a state that was moving against the tide evident in other states of raising the bar for a high school diploma. The recent decision to reduce the



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required passing scores for the Arizona exit exam and allowing students to apply grades of A, B, or C in some courses toward their scores on these testsiii constitutes an effective lowering of the standard. In addition, it has been suggested that the 2005 increase in AIMS proficiency scores in 10th grade math may largely have been the result of a redefinition of the requirements for proficiency--rather than a meaningful improvement in achievement. Other indicators collected by Achieve provide reason for concern as well. Just 26 percent of Arizona's eighth graders take Algebra, considered a "gateway" course, a prerequisite for the rigorous high school courses students need to enter and succeed in college. The national average is 31 percent, while the median for the top five states in this regard is 43 percent. According to the National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, 69 percent of Arizona students graduate from high school on time, 35 percent immediately enroll in college, 22 percent are enrolled by sophomore year, and just 17 percent graduate from college on time. While these numbers are comparable to the national average, they are significantly below rates in top performing states.iv Another way of looking at educational opportunity in Arizona is using the "chance for college" rate developed by the Education Commission of the States, which measures the chance that a student will graduate from high school in four years and enroll in college within a year of graduation. For Arizona, that rate is 29.6 percent for all students, and just 15.6 percent for minorities.v One might also consider the extent to which students require remediation when they move to post-secondary study. Individual institutions collect these data for themselves, and no source could be found for summary data on this issue. However, the data for the Maricopa Community Colleges, the largest in the system and among the largest in the nation, provide an indication of Arizona high school graduates' preparation. Of the 2004 graduates entering the Maricopa system in 2005, 16 percent enrolled in developmental English (remedial level) and 40 percent enrolled in developmental math. An additional 26 percent did not enroll in English at all, while 34 percent did not enroll in math at all. The rest of the students who did enroll in math break down as follows: 11 percent in Intermediate Algebra; 7 percent in College Algebra; 4 percent in other math; and 4 percent in Calculus. Arizona has already begun to focus on its high schools. A detailed picture of improvement efforts currently being planned and executed in Arizona is beyond the scope of this report. However, a few examples illustrate the state's commitment to improving outcomes for all of its young people. For example, the Arizona Business & Education Coalition (ABEC) has held statewide community meetings designed to solicit the perspectives of business leaders, parents, and members of the state's Hispanic and Native American communities regarding the preparation of young people for college and the workplace. Similarly, driven by concern about performance on the state



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assessment, as well as by concerns from the business and higher education communities about the preparation of Arizona high school students, the state's Department of Education formed a team to consider the needs of Arizona's high schools and strategies for reforming them. The Arizona High School Renewal and Improvement Initiative (AZHSRI) conducted focus groups to identify the concerns of some stakeholder groups. The concerns raised as part of the AZHSRI echo many of those articulated at the national level, particularly including the need for all students to have access to a rigorous, relevant, and comprehensive curriculum.vi Based on the AZHSRI recommendations, the Arizona Department of Education has begun implementing the Breaking Ranks II program, a set of integrated recommendations and activities designed to assist principals in developing and leading professional learning communitiesvii. Improving secondary career and technical education to increase academic rigor, ensure industry standards are met, and also "raise the bar" are critical. Arizona has already made the decision to explore ways of improving outcomes for its high school students; now the state's challenge is to understand the needs of the students who are falling behind and to structure its academic programs to better serve all of its students. A variety of data are presented below to illustrate further the preparedness of Arizona students. 2.2. DROPOUT RATES AND TEST RESULTS



Arizona reported an overall graduation rate of 74 percent for 2002-03, with numbers for population subgroups that suggest significant achievement gaps, shown below. These numbers may not fully reflect the magnitude of the problem, however, because dropout rates can be calculated in numerous ways. Questions such as which of many possible ways should be used to count the baseline number of students from which the number who dropped out is subtracted, may influence the calculation. For example, three different ways of calculating the rate are presented by Standard and Poors Schoolmatters initiative, a clearinghouse of K-12 education data. For Arizona, Schoolmatters presents a cohort rate of 70.0 percent, a Cumulative Promotion Index of 67.7 percent, and a Leaver rate of 66.0 percent. The Education Trust supplies figures for each state that are designed to capture the likelihood that a child enrolled in ninth grade will graduate on time--that number for Arizona is 67 percent overall.viii



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Table 1 2002-03 Four-Year Graduation Rate, by Ethnic Group

Group White Hispanic Native American African American Asian Graduation Rate 81.9 percent 63.1 percent 58.5 percent 66.4 percent 88.7 percent Percentage of student population 49.2 percent 37.2 percent 6.6 percent 4.8 percent 2.2 percent



Total 74.0 percent Source: Arizona Department of Education Assessment data give similar cause for concern. Arizona has a relatively new assessment for high school students, and has recently made passage a requirement for graduation. Results for the past four years show significant improvement. However, in 2005, just 63 percent of tested students met or exceeded expectations in mathematics, while 68 percent did so in reading, and 69 percent did so in writing. The proficiency rates for AIMS became the focus of increased attention as the class of 2006, the first for whom passage was a graduation requirement, neared graduation. Recent score gains are encouraging; however, it is likely too soon to infer from them that achievement has improved. A pattern of short-term improvement after a new assessment has been introduced, followed by a leveling off in performance has been well documented in the psychometric literature, and is generally ascribed to growing familiarity with the format and expectations of the assessment.ix Other nonsubstantive factors may play a role as well; an analysis of the factors that account for the gains would provide valuable information for the state as it considers the rigor of its high school requirements.



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Table 2 Percentages of High School Students Achieving Each AIMS Level Mathematics

Falls far below standard 2002 2003 2004 2005 51 52 52 24 Approaches the Standard 20 14 18 13 Meets the Standard 20 18 20 50 Exceeds the Standard 8 9 11 13



Reading

Falls far below standard 2002 2003 2004 2005 15 19 24 8 Approaches the Standard 25 21 26 24 Meets the Standard 47 43 43 60 Exceeds the Standard 13 6 6 8



Writing

Falls far below standard 2002 2003 2004 2005 17 23 5 Approaches the Standard 26 14 27 Meets the Standard 57 56 60 60 Exceeds the Standard 1 0 9 9



5 27 Source: Arizona Department of Education



Proficiency on a standardized assessment tells only part of the story, however. The AIMS tests are linked closely to Arizona's standards. A preliminary examination of sample test questions and performance level descriptors suggests that the tests measure primarily skills and knowledge that students could be expected to have mastered early in their high school careers. AIMS tests are offered beginning in the 10th grade (though students have multiple opportunities to retake them if they are unsuccessful at first). Consequently they measure material students could be expected to master at least by 10th grade. Moreover, students who successfully complete these



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assessments have fulfilled a significant component of the requirements for graduation and can choose not to apply themselves further without much risk to their diploma. 2.3. ACT



Scores on the ACT are one indicator of students' preparedness for college. Students in Arizona who take the ACT score slightly above national averages. However, only 19 percent of Arizona high school students took the ACT in 2005, down from 27 percent in 2000.x ACT recommends that all students who aspire to college take a college-preparatory course load, and their assessments are linked to the recommended courses (this core program is described below). ACT data show that taking the recommended core coursework is strongly correlated with test scores, with those who have taken the core courses scoring more than two points higher on average (on a 36-point scale) than those who did not take them. This finding holds true for Arizona students as well. ACT reports that 67 percent of Arizona ACT-takers have taken the core courses, and that group scores two points higher than do non-core ACTtakers. In other words, in Arizona, as across the nation, taking more rigorous coursework in high school leaves students better prepared for college work. The two-point difference between core and non-core ACT-takers is evident for racial and ethnic subgroups as well, but there are also distinct gaps in performance by subgroup. Table 3 shows average composite ACT scores by race and ethnicity.



Table 3 Average AZ Composite ACT Scores by Ethnic Group (2005)

African American American Indian/ Alaskan Native 16.7 Caucasian /White MexicanAmerican/ Chicano 19.6 Asian Puerto-Rican/ American/ Hispanic Pacific Islander 22.9 20.1



18.8



22.9



2.4.



SAT AND ADVANCED PLACEMENT



Scores on and participation in SAT and AP exams provide additional evidence regarding Arizona students' readiness for college. Only 19.6 percent of Arizona students who take the SAT score slightly above the national average compared with 48 percent nationwide.xi As with the ACT, performance of Arizona students on the SAT is only an indirect measure of high school preparedness, because the small percentage of



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students who take the exam are self selected and base their decision to participate on college plans. Sixty-seven percent of Arizona high schools offer Advanced Placement classes, however only 6 percent of Arizona juniors and seniors take AP exams, versus 11 percent nationwide and 17 percent in the top five states. While Arizona schools may offer other ways to pursue advanced coursework, these numbers suggest that significant proportions of Arizona students are not pursuing rigorous college preparatory programs. The figure for both African American and Native American students is a two percent. Arizona has improved by 0.4 percent in AP participation rate since 1997, while the national improvement rate has been 3.7 percent. Top states have improved by approximately 7.4 percent.xii Among Arizona students who take AP exams, 59.7 percent earn a score of three or above, on a five-point scale, the minimum for obtaining college credit. Here gaps among population subgroups are again evident: 56.7 percent of minority students receive a 3 or better, compared with 65.8 percent of white students. For African American students the percentage is 46.4, for American Indians it is 30.3, for Asian students it is 65.7, and for Hispanic students it is 54.1.xiii 3. RESEARCH AND POLICY ANALYSES REGARDING PREPARING STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE AND CAREERS 3.1. SCOPE OF THE PROBLEM



Arizona is by no means the only state in which high school preparation is an issue. Broad consensus exists regarding the crisis in American high schools, and national attention is increasingly focused on the importance of these last critical years of required schooling. It is important to set Arizona's circumstances in the larger national context for two reasons. First, because the problems that exist in Arizona can be found in many, if not all, other states, it is clear that an enumeration of Arizona's challenges is not designed to cast blame on the state's educators and policy leaders, but rather to improve understanding of the nature of the problem and possible routes to improvement. Second, the existing body of analysis produced by policy experts, researchers, and others can be of material benefit to Arizona leaders as they work to develop solutions that meet Arizona's needs. Specifically, the consensus that has developed regarding what constitutes successful preparation for high school graduates can serve as a baseline for Arizona's deliberations. Educators, business leaders, elected officials, parents, and students have all pointed to the glaring mismatch between many students' high school preparation and the demands they face in college and the workplace. Forty percent of students in fouryear institutions, and 63 percent of students in two-year institutions, need to enroll in remedial courses. Research supports the conclusion that significant numbers of students graduate from high school ill-prepared for college and career.xiv Taking



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remedial courses is not just a duplication of cost and effort, but also an impediment to future success--while 56 percent of students who do not require remediation complete a two- or four-year degree, only 34 percent of those who need remediation do so.xv Some high school students do leave secondary education well prepared for college and career, and some high schools and components of high schools perform well, as indicators such as TIMSS results for high-performing districts, and the growing numbers of students achieving top scores on AP exams, suggest. Nevertheless, a large proportion of American youth do not leave high school prepared to succeed in college. Arizona is also not the only state that lacks structures and data collection processes that could support the bridge between high school and college. A study of the issue has found that few states collect data that would help them assess students' needs or the impact of policies and reforms.xvi This problem exists in part because views of the purpose of high school have evolved over the past century, a period during which the percentage of young people graduating has increased from one in ten to roughly three in four.xvii A century ago, high school was largely seen as preparation for the select few destined for college. By the mid-twentieth century, as broader populations were served, expectations and graduation standards were lowered. In many jurisdictions, routes to the diploma proliferated, and academic rigor frequently took a back seat. Today, it is generally accepted that some post-secondary education is a prerequisite for high wage jobs and successful careers, and that a meaningful high school diploma, based in college preparatory academic content and career awareness and preparedness, is critical. The challenge in many states and districts has been to develop K-12 programming that successfully addresses these goals. Problems besetting the American high school and concerns about the strength of the US workforce have persisted, and today a national conversation is underway about what is not right with high schools and how best to improve them. The scope of the problem is clear. Public opinion surveys have documented the widespread dissatisfaction of both employers and college faculty with the preparation of recent graduates.xviii Post-secondary institutions and others lament the cost in time and resources of providing substantial remedial coursework for new entrants. All students are not affected equally. A significant and persistent gap between the achievement and opportunities of disadvantaged students and their more advantaged peers is also evident. For example, of high school graduates, those from high income families enter college at rates 25 percent higher than those of graduates from low income families. While dropout data varies by source, and the percentage of students dropping out of high school has been declining, there is widespread agreement that more students need to finish high school, and finish better prepared. According to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) data reported in Childtrends, 10.3 percent of students overall dropped out of high school in 2004, 23.8 percent of



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Hispanics and 12.1 percent of African Americans. A similar gap is evident in Arizona. For example, in Arizona the Arizona Minority Education Policy Analysis Center reports that 2003 graduation rate for minorities was 64.1 percent, while that for white students was 81.9 percent.xix Microsoft founder Bill Gates voiced the concern shared by many observers this way: "When I compare our high schools to what I see when I'm traveling abroad, I am terrified for our work force of tomorrow. In math and science, our fourth graders are among the top students in the world. By eighth grade, they're in the middle of the pack. By 12th grade, U.S. students are scoring near the bottom of all industrialized nations...In the international competition to have the biggest and best supply of knowledge workers, America is falling behind..." 3.2. THE NATIONAL HIGH SCHOOL IMPROVEMENT AGENDA



Over the past decade, many of those professionally concerned with the quality of public education have focused on improving high schools. Many reform efforts have already focused on younger children, and no one would argue that preparation for rigorous study can wait until the ninth grade. Nevertheless, the high school years are critical, and the Gates Foundation is one of many organizations funding projects to improve schools using a wide range of reform strategies. The National Governors Association (NGA) focused its recent summit on high school reform and student achievement, and has launched a sizeable program to provide funds to states that want to develop and implement high school improvement strategies. Other national organizations concerned with education have weighed in on high school improvement as well. Drawing on research data as well as policy analysis, organizations such as the Alliance for Excellent Education, Achieve, the Education Trust, ACT, the College Board, Education Commission of the States, the National Commission on the Senior Year, the National High School Alliance, and others have studied the issue, and offer a variety of data, expertise, and strategies to assist states. Other endeavors, such as Standards for Success (University of Oregon), High Schools That Work (Southern Regional Education Board (SREB)), the Institute for Research and Reform in Education (IRRE) and the International Center for Leadership in Education, among many others, provide detailed frameworks states can use. The high school conversation may seem to offer states a bewildering array of choices. However, a significant degree of consensus has emerged, both about the primary goals for high school, and about several elements that are critical for success, regardless of the specific approach to improvement a state takes. This consensus is based on independent reviews of the research regarding high school preparation and vertical alignment, and also reflects a noteworthy confluence of judgment about the objectives for U.S. high schools. Data can demonstrate achievement gaps and some of the problems that result when students are not well prepared. What is perhaps more significant is that so many researchers and policy analysts have focused on the same



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issue--the achievement gap and inequity in students' preparation--and made the same judgment: that consigning some students to lesser expectations and opportunities is not the mission of public education in the United States. Thus, consensus has clearly emerged that all students should graduate from high school with: Academic skills and knowledge sufficient to allow them to pursue further education or rewarding career opportunities; Life skills that prepare them to pursue goals in or out of school and to take on the role of a responsible citizen; and The capacity, background, and motivation to continue to educate themselves and to navigate post-secondary education and world of employment. Second, key themes regarding rigor and relevance in particular emerge in virtually all of the reports and approaches advocated nationally that were reviewed in the preparation of this document. 3.3. HIGH SCHOOL PREPARATION THEMES



Four themes are stressed consistently by organizations such as Achieve and the American Diploma Project, the National Governors Association (NGA), the Education Trust, Education Commission of the States, High Schools That Work (SREB), ACT, the Center on Education Policy, the National Commission on the High School Senior Year and the National High School Alliance. These groups collectively have conducted and reviewed a substantial amount of research. Greater detail on the specific programs and initiatives of these and other groups is provided in the Attachment 2. The four themes, discussed below, that might in part inform Arizona policy are: Setting high standards for all students, and holding all students accountable for meeting them. Supports for students at risk Making well crafted, ambitious standards the linchpin of an integrated system of curriculum, instruction, professional development, and assessments Providing for effective transitions to post-secondary education and work



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3.3.1. Importance of setting high standards for all students, and holding all students accountable for meeting them Extensive study of high school requirements and outcomes for graduates has demonstrated that many high schools simply do not adequately challenge their students academically or intellectually. Too often, graduation requirements, passing standards for graduation tests, and the content of courses are not rigorous and do not provide students with sufficient opportunity to grow and learn. Researchers and policy analysts are united in saying that all students need core--not basic or minimum competency-- academic skills and knowledge to prepare themselves for both college and the workplace. A number of states (AL, AR, FL, IN, KS, MS, NY, NC, OK, OR, TX, VA, WAxx) have recently begun to require a college preparatory curriculum for graduation. These states have developed a variety of options for students who want an even more accelerated program, and for supporting students who will struggle with tougher requirements. These reforms have not been in place long enough for evaluation of their effects on student outcomes to be undertaken, but will undoubtedly be closely watched.xxi They also apply not only to core academic subjects, but to efforts to improve career and technical and related programs as well. Tougher course requirements. The argument that more rigorous requirements are needed for all is not based on the premise that all students should go to college, but on updated goals for high school. First, the possibility of college should remain open to every student throughout high school, regardless of the path chosen post high school. No student should be taking coursework that will leave him or her ineligible for postsecondary study--or be discouraged from aspiring to college and encouraged to take "dead-end" classes. Second, every student needs grounding in the primary disciplines (e.g. mathematics, science, social studies, and English/Language Arts), which are a necessary preparation for college, career, and citizenship, and which also develop the capacity to continue learning and educating and adapting to the needs of the workplace throughout life. Almost any career offers more potential for advancement to workers who start out equipped with skills in math, reading, writing, speaking, and thinking, and many careers that do not require a college degree nevertheless demand fluency with these skills. The Education Trust and others have noted that: There is significant variation state by state in graduation requirements, and There is very little consensus between the secondary and postsecondary communities about what should be required of high school graduates in terms of the actual course content.xxii This lack of alignment is a significant problem for many students, who may in good faith complete high school graduation requirements, only to discover too late that



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many post-secondary choices are already foreclosed for them. This is also a significant problem in Arizona, as is discussed below. 3.3.2. Supports for students at risk Perhaps the biggest change that is called for in improving high schools is that of raising expectations. Each of the national groups in its own way stresses that by and large the problem lies not with students who are already excelling, but with those who have been consigned to slow-paced, undemanding coursework and have opted out of academic ambition. A number of strategies have been developed for supporting students who are at risk. Some focus on restructuring high schools so that students learn in a more personalized atmosphere and have the individualized attention of adults who are trained to recognize and address problems. Restructured highs schools can offer students the chance to pursue their own interests and strengths and to see how those interests can translate into college and workplace skills. Other strategies include focusing attention on the pipeline through which students reach high school, ensuring that elementary and middle school students receive the grounding they need to succeed in high-level courses when they reach ninth grade. This pipeline begins with pre-school, and without a doubt high schools are faced with the stiff challenge of helping many students compensate for years of missed learning opportunities. K-12 systems are urged to consider vertical alignment for the entire P-20 trajectory, and to build systems that provide what is needed at every stage. At the same time, high schools must also focus on the students they are serving right now and will serve in the short-term future. Apart from being the first opportunity for high school policies to have an impact, ninth grade is a critical year in students' educational careers. As the gateway year for access to more challenging work and the time to begin considering post-secondary plans, ninth grade is also the first year when significant numbers of students drop out or initiate a pattern of dropping in and out and gradually disengaging from school.xxiii Thus, focusing on ninth grade, a key transitional year for catching dropouts, has been identified by many observers as a critical opportunity to equip students to succeed with a more demanding program, and to develop interest-based academic and career pathways. The challenges vary from urban to rural districts, with the proportion of nonnative English speakers in the population, the degree of transience, and other issues, so each state must develop strategies that suit the context in which its students are learning. 3.3.3. Importance of making well crafted, ambitious standards the linchpin of an integrated system of curriculum, instruction, professional development, and assessments The premise of standards-based reform is that standards that clearly articulate what students need to know and be able to do in each subject, as well as the level of



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performance that will be required, are the key to an aligned system.xxiv Well crafted standards not only define ambitious expectations for students, they also provide the basis for rigorous curricula, professional development, and assessments that work together to improve teaching and learning. (Review of curricula and professional development in Arizona were beyond the scope of this report but are certainly critical elements for the state to consider.) Currently, state standards vary significantly, both in terms of the degree of rigor they call for and in terms of the clarity and detail with which they express goals for teaching and learning.xxv Moreover, states have been making significant changes to their standards in recent years ? and indeed making regular revisions is part of the ongoing process of ensuring that standards are challenging and effective. Thus, making comparisons among states in terms of how successfully their standards are guiding improvements is difficult. Nevertheless, there is guidance and a number of models for states that are considering revisions to their standards. It is important to note here that states face a dilemma as they set performance standards. Standards that are too high may yield unacceptably high failure rates, which is an especially troublesome issue when meeting the performance standards on an examination is an explicit requirement for graduation. On the other hand, if states set standards that are not sufficiently challenging the standards will not serve the purpose of ensuring that students are learning as they should and are prepared for the future. States respond to this dilemma in a variety of ways, but the consequences of relying on standards that are too low are clear from the analysis presented in this report. Role of graduation tests. According to the Center on Education Policy, 26 states now employ high school exit exams.xxvi A few states, such as Alaska, Minnesota, and New Mexico, use minimum competency assessments. The majority, however, are moving toward standards-based or end-of-course exams. Very few, however, are linked to college requirements or readiness, and only one (Georgia's) was linked to workforce readiness at the time of this writing. Arizona has recently begun requiring passage of its AIMS assessment, which is tightly linked to the state's academic standards, for graduation. Without a doubt, assessment is a key tool with which states can influence high school goals and achievement, however high stakes exit exams can be controversial and may have unintended negative consequences.xxvii Such tests are not fair if they are used without proper attention to the opportunities all students have to learn the tested material, an issue which has arisen in Arizona. They may not yield valid results if they are not closely linked to the achievement and performance standards they are designed to measure. They can also have the effect of narrowing the curriculum ? and restricting learning ? if schools and teachers feel undue pressure to focus on material that is to be tested, and neglect other, equally important material that is not as easy to assess. Finally, if tests are not demanding, then relatively high pass rates may disguise a significant achievement deficit. Significant political pressure to increase both graduation



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rates and test scores has resulted in lowered expectations in many states, as the definition of what constitutes proficiency is adjusted downward. A report for the American Diploma Project analyzed exit exams in a number of states and found that most are assessing skills and knowledge that are generally covered in middle school or very early in high school.xxviii Regardless of the quality and rigor of academic content standards a state may use, exit exams of this type cannot ensure that graduates are equipped to succeed in college and the workforce. The AIMS is linked to Arizona's content standards, but those standards do not appear to describe a particularly demanding academic program for high school students, by comparison with other standards intended to set high expectations for students. At the same time, the performance levels required for passage of AIMS are not particularly high. Nevertheless, because the content standards for high school are not articulated by grade level, many students may not have mastered the coursework needed for success on AIMS by the time they are tested. Thus, Arizona students are not held to high academic expectations either by the standards that guide curricula or by the state assessment. 3.3.4. Providing for effective transitions to post-secondary education and work The research examined for this study addressed both academic preparation and career exploration, and, for much of the field, integration of the two was an explicit focus. The effort to integrate academic and career objectives is long standing, but has had only limited success in many of the nation's high schools. Analysts argue that treating these two high school objectives as separate endeavors, relevant to two different sets of students, does a disservice to all. Linking academic preparation to career trajectories and themes that encompass a variety of options is the preferred approach to providing high school students with career exploration and technical education opportunities. The essence of this approach is both true integration and multiple pathways, in which all students are exposed to career awareness opportunities that link to their interests, and all are held to academic standards that will leave them qualified to pursue a range of options, as discussed elsewhere in this report. It also provides students who wish to pursue technical education opportunities in high school the opportunity to do so without sacrificing preparedness for postsecondary study. We also note that secondary career and technical education can play an important role in preparing students for postsecondary education and career, and that many states are taking important steps to substantially redesign CTE programs to ensure they meet higher standards and expectations. In part, this requires the elimination of vocational courses and programs that are isolated and dead-end, and for the substantial restructuring of all career and technical education to include strong academic components as well. While review of AZ CTE was not an explicit focus of this study, it is important to note its importance to the future of the AZ high school endeavor.



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4. ARIZONA GRADUATION REQUIREMENTS AND POST-SECONDARY ALIGNMENT 4.1. ARIZONA GRADUATION REQUIREMENTS



Arizona has defined the requirements for earning a high school diploma in terms of two measures: passage of the AIMS tests in reading, writing, and mathematics, and completion of the course requirements listed below. The AIMS is a standards-based assessment in which students demonstrate mastery of defined strands within the three fields. Students have up to five opportunities to take each of the three assessments, beginning in the 10th grade, and must attain a score of "meets expectations" or "exceeds expectations" on each. The course requirements leave students ? and districts ? considerable flexibility: 20 credits are required, of which 8.5 are not specified. Thus, the state is not in a position to ensure that students who meet requirements are prepared for college intellectually, or that they meet eligibility requirements for post-secondary study. As far as could be determined for this report, the Arizona Department of Education leaves the guidelines for fulfilling these 8.5 credits to the discretion of the districts in practice as well as on paper. No source of summative data on what the districts require, how they determine what they will require, or how outcomes for students might differ based on different requirements could be identified. This section compares Arizona high school graduation requirements; Arizona requirements are compared to other national approaches in the next section. Twenty Credits Required for Arizona High School Graduation: 4 credits of English or English as a Second Language, which will include but not be limited to the following: grammar, writing, and reading skills, advanced grammar, composition, American literature, advanced composition, research methods and skills and literature. One-half credit of the English requirement will include the principles of speech and debate but not be limited to those principles. 1.5 credits in instruction in the essentials, sources and history of the constitutions of the United States and Arizona and instruction in American institutions and ideals and in the history of Arizona. 1 credit of world history/geography. 2 credits of mathematics: the course content of the mathematics credits shall include Number Sense; Data Analysis and Probability;



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Patterns, Algebra and Functions; Geometry; Measurement and Discrete Mathematics; and Mathematical Structure/Logic. 2 credits of science. 1 credit of fine arts or vocational education. 8.5 credits of additional courses prescribed by the local governing board, subject to the approval of the State Board. In addition, Arizona has a number of career and technical education programs that offer students opportunities to explore different career trajectories and strategies for preparing themselves to enter various fields. The question is whether these options reflect an equally high standard as that required for postsecondary education, or are viewed as a lesser track for the "non college bound". Districts are authorized to allow students to meet some of the 8.5 unspecified requirements with Practical Arts credits, obtained through CTE study (as well as Fine Arts credits). Standards for CTE courses are linked to academic standards, though it could not be determined for this report how this linkage is accomplished. Multiple pathways to postsecondary and career preparation are essential to helping students succeed. 4.2. POST-SECONDARY SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS



Arizona's post-secondary system consists of three public four-year institutions and ten multi-campus public community colleges, as well as 15 smaller independent schools and 53 nationally accredited career colleges or proprietary schools. While coordination of this system is complex, it is in many ways less so than in other states because the system is comparatively young and there are only three major four-year institutions. 4.2.1. University Admissions Requirements The public university system in Arizona has defined basic admissions requirements for freshmen entering a BA program at any of three four-year institutions: Arizona State University, Northern Arizona University, and the University of Arizona. The Tri-University system asks students to meet thresholds for GPA and test scores, which vary for in-state and out-of-state students, admission to special programs, and other circumstances, and to have successfully completed the following course work: 4 units' English (Composition and Literature). 4 units' mathematics: Algebra I, Geometry, Algebra II, and a course for which Algebra II is a prerequisite.



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3 units' laboratory science: One unit in at least three of the four major areas (Biology, Chemistry, Physics, Earth Science) is recommended. 2 units' Social Studies: One unit of American History and one additional unit of any combination of two semesters of social science such as: European/World History, Economics, Sociology, Geography, Government, Psychology, Anthropology, or Philosophy. 2 units of the same foreign language. 1 unit of fine arts or any combination of two semesters of fine arts These basic requirements apply across the three institutions; additional requirements have been defined for some programs within these universities, such as the schools of engineering, journalism, and business at Arizona State University. Arizona residents who have met baseline requirements (have taken the required 16 courses, attend an Arizona high school, and rank in the top 25% of their classes) are ensured admission at one of the three universities. Applicants who do not meet the criteria for assured admission are evaluated on additional factors such as SAT scores. The Community College systems all have completely open enrollment, and thus do not have specific course requirements for entering students. Because admissions requirements cannot act in part as a screen for preparedness, community colleges find themselves with a significant burden in terms of providing remediation in reading and math in particular. Both the four-year institutions and the community colleges provide extensive opportunities for remedial work for students who arrive unprepared for college-level coursework. For example, as stated above, in the Maricopa Community College System, of the 2004 graduates entering the system in 2005, 16 percent enrolled in developmental English (remedial level) and 40 percent enrolled in developmental math. 4.3. DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION AND COLLEGE ENTRANCE REQUIREMENTS



Students who complete only the current minimum requirements for graduation from Arizona high schools may not be eligible for admission to a four-year undergraduate program at the state's university system because of any of the possible discrepancies listed below. Only in English/Language Arts would Arizona high school graduates seem to automatically have sufficient credits; however, this comparison does not address the content of the required courses in detail. It is important to note that high school graduates must have completed 8.5 unspecified credits, which could be used to meet any or all of these deficiencies:



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Mathematics: High School graduates are required to take only two credits and the content is designated by strands that must be mastered if the student is to pass the AIMS test. The University system requires two additional years, and specifies that students advance past Algebra II. Science: High school graduates may be one credit short in science, and may not have a credit in any of the three required areas (of four options: Biology, Chemistry, Physics, Earth Science). The University system specifies laboratory science, while the graduation requirement does not. Social Studies: In addition to the American History requirement, which can be met with the required study of the U.S. and Arizona constitutions, the University system requires one unit, to include a combination of two semesters in two of several fields. High school graduates will have a credit in World History, but may not have a credit in any of the other areas. Foreign language: The University system requires two units; high school graduates may have none. Fine Arts: The University system requires one unit; high school graduates may have none. It is also important to note that the Arizona University system is in the process of reevaluating admissions requirements, and decentralizing them by discipline to ensure that each faculty has the opportunity to set appropriate admissions standards. This change is likely to raise the requirements for college entrance, as well as further complicate the higher education preparation picture. Arizona's basic requirements for graduation are not only inadequate to prepare students for admission to the state's university system; they are less stringent than those recommended by ACT, the American Diploma Project, the Education Trust, and High Schools That Work. The comparison is shown in Table 4.



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Table 4 Goals for High School Graduation Compared

High Schools That Work 4 years 4 years 3 years 3 years none



AZ Diploma ENGLISH MATHEMATICS SCIENCE SOCIAL STUDIES FOREIGN LANGUAGE 4 years 2 years 2 years 2.5 yrs none



AZ TriUniversity Admissions 4 years 4 years 3 years 2 years 2 years



ACT



ADP



Education Trust 4 years 3 years 3 years 3 years 2 years



4 years 3 years 3 years 3 years 1-2 yrs



4 years 4 years 3 years 3 years none



Articulation between the community college system and the three state-funded four-year institutions has been the subject of considerable effort, and, according to state sources, the system has become a model for other states. First, a Post-secondary Articulation/Transfer Task Force (PATTF) has been charged by the Arizona Commission for Post-secondary Education with identifying potential areas for articulation and encouraging articulation possibilities among post-secondary institutions. Arizona has in place the Course Applicability System, which allows students at all community colleges to understand how the courses they are taking will be credited if they transfer to a four-year institution, and can plan ahead to meet requirements for transfer. Moreover, the system has defined the Arizona General Education Curriculum (AGEC), a thirty-five semester credit "block" that can be completed at any Arizona community college, and that is recognized by the four-year institutions. A similar degree of articulation is not evident between the K-12 system and the higher education system. Definitions of what constitutes rigor, relevance, and comprehensiveness may vary, and a key starting point is the value of the credential Arizona high school graduates receive. There is a significant gap between current requirements for high school graduation in Arizona and the admissions requirements of the state's university system. Because the requirements are not well articulated across different parts of the education system, students may proceed through Arizona high schools without taking required courses in a sequence that allows them to become eligible for admission to the four-



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year institutions. Thus, students may arrive in the 10th or 11th grade in a position where meeting the requirements is virtually out of the question, and they may even arrive in 9th or 10th grade without having taken the course sequence that would adequately prepare them to succeed on the AIMS assessment. 4.4. SECONDARY AND POST-SECONDARY DATA COLLECTION



Like those in many states, the education system in Arizona collects a great deal of important data; however there is not a comprehensive system for determining which data are needed or for coordinating data collection efforts in different components of the system. There are also significant gaps in the data needed to fully assess the effectiveness of K-12 and higher education. For the purposes of reviewing articulation between high school and post-secondary study and careers, however, Arizona does have some data that shed light on the problem. For example, the Board of Regents sponsored a 2002 study of Arizona High School Eligibility, in which the transcripts of a random sample of all graduates of Arizona high schools were reviewed to determine the sampled students' eligibility for admission to the three four-year institutions. The study found that 43.9 percent were eligible (met 14 of the 16 requirements, had a GPA of 2.5 or better, and fell in the top half of their class) and that 16.8 percent would meet the revised 2006 requirements for "assured" admission, meaning that they were in the top 25 percent of their class and had completed all 16 of the required competency courses.



Table 5 Arizona High School Graduates Meeting Basic University Eligibility Requirements

African American American Indian Asian American Hispanic White Total



31.1 20.9 65.9 29.9 52.1 43.9 Source: Report to the Board of Regents. Executive Summary, Arizona High School Eligibility Study The admissions requirements for the three four-year institutions were recently made more stringent by the Board of Regents partly in response to a Carnegie Institution report that provided data showing that high school preparation correlated strongly with university success. The Arizona universities are continuing their efforts to provide information to younger students and their parents about the eligibility requirements and to encourage enrollment in the necessary courses in other ways. The Arizona Academic Scholars Program run by ABEC, a community based program designed to motivate the middle 50% of Arizona students to complete an



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academically rigorous course of study, is one example of how the state is trying to encourage students to be ambitious and excel. This program is in its second year. The Arizona Department of Education has recently introduced the Regents Honors Endorsement as another way to encourage students to prepare for college entry. This program, not yet implemented, is intended to define the courses students who aspire to university entrance should take, and encourage early aspiration and commitment to college preparedness. The requirements will likely include at least: four credits of English, three credits of math (algebra I, geometry, algebra II), three credits of basic lab science (biology, chemistry, physics), 3.5 credits of social studies (chosen from US and world history, geography, economics and government) and two credits of the same foreign language. This course of study will be voluntary and measures to inform families about the suggested curriculum, and encourage students to enroll are part of the plan. The discrepancies described above demonstrate that the K-12 system requirements are not yet aligned with the post-secondary requirements, though some students certainly do leave Arizona high schools well prepared for post-secondary education. Further indication of this misalignment is also provided by the High School Report Cards prepared for the Board of Regents. Each of the three four-year public higher education institutions collects data on Arizona high school graduates who have enrolled, and submits the data to the high schools from which the students graduated. Summary data for all Arizona high school graduates matriculating at any of the three institutions shows that the students who were admitted without academic deficiencies-- that is, having completed all of the 16 required credits--earned a GPA of 2.9 in their first quarter of college study, while those who were admitted with deficiencies earned a GPA of 2.3. xxix. 5. ARIZONA STANDARDS AND CURRICULA COMPARED The requirements for graduation from Arizona high schools do not match the admissions requirements for Arizona's university system. This, however, is not the only indication that Arizona high schools are not sufficiently rigorous. As was discussed in the introduction, course requirements alone cannot ensure rigor. A curriculum that requires students to go deeply into the material, and performance expectations that are demanding, are critical to educating college- and work-ready graduates. This section explores more closely the academic demands of high school and ways in which academic programs vary. The numeric requirements do not tell the whole story. First, because Arizona students may meet 8.5 of the graduation credit requirements in unspecified ways, the rigor of a significant portion of their coursework is left entirely to district and/or school discretion. Moreover, counselors, parents, and others tend to focus on attained grade point averages (GPAs), rather than on the content that must be mastered to attain them, particularly when scholarships and other recognition are based on these figures. Yet the GPA reflects only the success with which students complete required material; if



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coursework is not demanding, a high GPA does not indicate a high degree of attainment or preparedness for further schooling or career. A preliminary comparison of Arizona's standards and performance expectations with those of other groups reinforces the message suggested by the comparisons of numeric requirements shown in Table 4. Arizona's content and performance standards do not seem to set the bar as high as other standards do. A student who met only the minimum requirements put forth in Arizona would not be well prepared to matriculate at an Arizona university, to compete with peers educated according to higher expectations, or to perform optimally in the workplace. The Department of Education's Standards Development and Implementation Unit is responsible for the development of the state's standards as well as for supporting and assisting schools in implementing them. Arizona has written standards in The Arts, Foreign and Native Language, Language Arts, Mathematics, Science, Social Studies, Technology, Workplace Skills, and Comprehensive Health/PE. The standards are specified by grade level (K-8) in Reading, Writing, Mathematics, and Science. They are not, however, specified by grade level for high school--a single set of standards is in place for grades 9 through 12. Arizona's standards were revised in response to the passage of the 2001 No Child Left Behind Act because they had not previously been articulated by grade level. They were extensively reviewed at that time, and a process is in place for implementing them that includes professional development for teachers. Because AIMS is tightly linked to the standards, analysis of specific results can help teachers focus on areas in which their students are struggling. For the purpose of this analysis, we compared one section of the mathematics standards for high school, Strand 3, which covers patterns, algebra, and functions, with similar standards from the America Diploma Project, Standards for Success and ACT. Based on this summary assessment, a marked contrast seems apparent between Arizona's standards and those of the other three groups examined in the degree of specificity and detail provided, as well as in the scope and difficulty of the required material. The Arizona strand, as well as excerpts from the American Diploma Project and Standards for Success standards, are included in Attachment 1. In both cases we have included only those related to high school algebra, for purposes of comparison. (The algebra benchmark developed by ACT is available at http://www.act.org/standard/planact/math/index.html; it is not included in this document because of its size.) The brief excerpt below provides a hint of what a side-by-side comparison of these standards suggests, that Arizona's standards are not very detailed, which means that districts, schools, and individual teachers have considerable latitude to determine precisely what students will be taught. Moreover, based on informal comparison, the other sets of standards appear to describe more challenging conceptions of comparable material.



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It is important to note that standards documents and other descriptions of specific performance and content expectations are conceived and organized in different ways for valid reasons. The comparison made here is not scientific; it is done for the purpose of identifying the possible need for further analysis by content experts. A thorough review could reveal how well Arizona's standards and performance expectations correspond to the kinds of standards that national experts have developed, including those discussed here as well as others. National discipline-based organizations, such as the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics and the National Academy of Sciences (National Science Education Standards) provide subject-specific content guidance.

Excerpt from the Arizona State Mathematics Standards, Strand 3, Patterns, Algebra, and Functions, Concept 2 of 4, Functions and Relationships, items 1 and 2 of 9 Describe and model functions and their relationships. PO 1. Determine if a relationship is a function, given a graph, table, or set of ordered pairs. PO 2. Describe a contextual situation that is depicted by a given graph. Excerpt from Benchmark for Algebra, American Diploma Project, 1 of 6 sections, items 1 and 2 of 7 The high school graduate can: J1. Perform basic operations on algebraic expressions fluently and accurately: J1.1. Understand the properties of integer exponents and roots and apply these properties to simplify algebraic expressions. Example:



Simplify the expression



to obtain either



or



.



J1.2. * Understand the properties of rational exponents and apply these properties to simplify algebraic expressions. Example: Explain why for any non-negative number x.



From our preliminary comparison, the conclusion that Arizona's standards are less rigorous and detailed than most experts are recommending seems warranted. The term standards encompasses two distinct concepts--academic content standards and performance standards--both of which are necessary for guiding teaching and learning. Academic content standards describe what concepts, skills, or other material students should be expected to master. Performance standards describe how well they should be able to do these things, or what it is they must be able to do to demonstrate mastery. Assessments are then a means of measuring the content standard (what) and the performance standard (how much). Arizona uses its required high school exit exam as a way of ensuring that graduating students perform to particular levels, and thus the performance level descriptors serve as supplements to the standards.



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The AIMS assessment is scored on a four-point scale, according to which student responses are classified as exceeding, meeting, approaching, and falling far below particular standards. Examples of those descriptors are also included in Attachment 1 after the examples of the algebra standards. Students must meet or exceed the performance standard to graduate (with certain exceptions). The performance expectations for the graduation exam do not seem to alter the general conclusion that the state's expectations for students do not reach the levels advocated for college preparedness by the other groups. 6. PREPARING YOUTH FOR POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION AND CAREERS: KEY FINDINGS Arizona, like many states, has what one study described as "unnecessary and detrimental barriers between high school and college....that are undermining student aspirations."xxx A significant number of the students who graduate from Arizona high schools are not adequately prepared for post-secondary study, and many also lack the basic skills and knowledge necessary to thrive in the workplace. Some of the reasons for this lack of preparedness have been described in detail above, and we summarize the key conclusions here. The secondary system in Arizona is not well aligned with the requirements for post-secondary study and the workplace. Employers in Arizona and post-secondary institutions in Arizona are in accord with national researchers and policy analysts in defining ambitious expectations for high school graduates in terms of both hard and soft skills. While the skills and knowledge needed for work in various industries and for post-secondary study at different levels and in different fields vary somewhat, core skills are needed irrespective of students' specific goals. This set of skills and knowledge includes, but is not limited to: Mathematics (e.g. arithmetic, algebra, geometry, calculus, statistics, and their applications); Science and scientific thinking (e.g. computer science and engineering, applied technology, life sciences, etc.) English language skills (e.g. reading comprehension/reading for information, writing and oral communications skills); and Thinking and learning skills (e.g. critical thinking, listening and observation skills, and judgment and decision making). Arizona students are not required to take, and in many cases not offered, curricula that would adequately prepare them for post-secondary study. They are not



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well guided by the K-12 system as to what will be required of them if they pursue further schooling or careers, and the formal course and testing requirements are not sufficient to ensure adequate preparation. The system also does not take sufficient steps to monitor the progress of students, and to track the outcomes that result from preparation that varies in rigor. The academic programming and graduation requirements in place in Arizona high schools are not sufficient to equip students with this set of necessary skills and knowledge. There is a significant gap between current requirements for high school graduation in Arizona and the admissions requirements of the state's university system. Because the requirements are not well articulated across different parts of the education system, students may proceed through Arizona high schools without taking required courses in a sequence that allows them to become eligible for admission to the fouryear institutions. Specifically: Graduation requirements are insufficient, both because 8.5 of the necessary credits left to the discretion of school districts may not result in adequately rigorous preparation, and because the required numbers of courses in several areas fall short of what is needed/recommended. The state standards do not appear to call on students to master sufficiently ambitious and rigorous course material and do not appear to be sufficiently detailed to provide clear instructional guidance. The state assessment, AIMS, used as a graduation requirement, does not appear to set a high bar for passage, and therefore does not ensure that graduates will have the level of skills needed. Arizona students are not performing well, even in terms of the state's current standards of proficiency and success, as demonstrated by scores on AIMS, dropout rates, and other indicators. Students who do not perceive themselves as college bound at an early stage are at a particular disadvantage, because they may meet graduation requirements by taking a sequence of courses that neither meets basic four-year college entrance requirements not provides them with the necessary skills and knowledge for success in the workplace. Career and technical education options may not reflect the level of academic preparation required to meet this standard either. The expectations of Arizona students embodied in the requirements for graduation, the state's academic standards, and the performance levels required



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for passage of the state graduation assessment are not only poorly aligned, they also appear to be significantly less demanding than national experts recommend. Arizona's academic standards for high school students are not articulated by grade and are fairly general, by comparison with other definitions of what high school students should be expected to know and be able to do. Similarly, the content assessed by AIMS, as well as the performance levels required for passage do not set as high a bar for Arizona students as may be desirable. Significant numbers of Arizona high school students are not meeting Arizona requirements. Finally, though Arizona does not appear to be setting particularly high expectations for its students, dropout rates, performance on AIMS, and other indicators suggest that significant numbers of students are not succeeding. Thus, Arizona's challenge is not only to bring its expectations and requirements inline with the demands of higher education and the workplace, but also to address the needs of students who are already struggling. One way to summarize the issue facing Arizona is to ask why it is that businesses and colleges find that recent graduates ? who have received passing grades in high school coursework and on the graduation exam ? require remedial courses and training before they can undertake even the introductory challenges of college and the workplace. The AIMS assessment is not demanding and it is offered early enough (10th grade) that passage reflects accomplishments that fall short of what might be expected of a high school graduate. Passing early can also allow students to consider that they have met the requirement and need not apply themselves further. However, AIMS is just one aspect of a system that is not well aligned with the demands of college and the workplace. Arizona does not provide adequate oversight and management of the bridge from high school to further schooling and career. Data that could be of significant value to the state in strengthening the bridge between high school and college (such as, for example, documentation of the need for remediation across Arizona colleges and universities, data regarding the ways in which high schools and districts direct their students to fill the 8.5 unspecified credits, and data regarding the educational and occupational outcomes of students who enroll in Arizona high schools) are not currently collected or publicly available. Individual institutions and entities within the state's educational system collect much data for themselves, but many kinds of summary data are not available. This part of our report has examined several of the indicators of lack of preparedness of Arizona high school students, and potential misalignment among secondary and post-secondary education and the demands of the new, knowledge



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economy. Raising the bar so that Arizona students leave high school ready for postsecondary education and careers is a significant challenge complicated by the complexity, diversity, and decentralized nature of the US education and workforce development systems. There is no simple, "one-size fits all" solution. Rather, a myriad of opportunities exist for Arizona policy makers and practitioners, and leaders in education, business, and communities to forge common purpose in building the well educated workforce the state requires to continue to grow and provide for its citizens. The next chapter examines specific education requirements of some of Arizona's targeted high growth occupations and industries.



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SECTION II. INDUSTRIES AND OCCUPATIONS ANALYSIS

1. INDUSTRIES AND OCCUPATIONS KEY FINDINGS The following key findings are drawn from our investigation. 1.1. THERE IS A GAP BETWEEN THE NEEDED EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT LEVEL IN DEMAND OCCUPATIONS COMPARED TO THE CURRENT WORKFORCE.



Thirty-nine percent of the livable wage jobs in 2013 will require at least a bachelor's degree while only 15 percent of Arizonan's age 25 or older have attained that level of educational attainment. Of Arizonan's age 25 and older in 2000, 26 percent had some post-secondary education but no degree, while only seven percent of Arizona's `livable wage' job openings created between 2003 and 2013 will require some postsecondary education without a degree. The gap in the supply of and the demand for adequately educated workers to fill at least median wage job openings highlights the disconnect between job requirements and workforce availability. Most notably, there emerges an oversupply of individuals not finishing their degrees and an undersupply of individuals with a bachelor's degree. 1.2. WORKFORCE PREPARATION FOR GROWING OCCUPATIONS WILL REQUIRE AN UNDERSTANDING OF THE UNIQUENESS OF EACH INDUSTRY.



Each industry sector is unique in terms of total employment, wages, and education skill levels required by that sector's occupations. For example, the median wage for Transportation & Logistics was just over $29,000, while the median wage for Aerospace was just under $52,000. Our analysis shows that 39 percent of Health Services jobs require at least an associate's degree, while only two percent of the Tourism & Travel jobs or five percent of Transportation & Logistics jobs require more than some vocational training and related work experience. The 70 occupations in the final list of key occupations have a combined median wage of $46,938, ranging from $21,476 to $87,446. In terms of total employment growth between 2003 and 2013, across all industry sectors in the state, these occupations will account for 163,508 total openings by 2013. On average, these occupations will require at least an Associate's degree.



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1.3.



UNDERSTANDING OF SKILL LEVELS ACROSS INDUSTRIES REQUIRES ANALYSIS OF SEVERAL CLASSIFICATION SYSTEMS SINCE NO ONE SKILL DESCRIPTOR EXISTS TO PROVIDE A COMMON LANGUAGE ACROSS SECTORS.



There is no one set of skill descriptors common across the three sectors: secondary education, post-secondary education and the workplace. There is no single way to discuss skills much less a one-to-one connection between workplace "skills" and classes taken in high school. The challenge in assessing the degree of alignment between high school requirements and success in the workplace and in post-secondary education is to translate these descriptions of applied skills to academic language. Such a translation requires detailed, exacting comparison of core curriculum (assuming that all Arizona high schools teach the exact same core curriculum) to the assessment elements used to determine the WorkKeys? competency level or the determination of O*NET Knowledges and Skills. This level of comparison requires a significant and substantial commitment of time and resources, which is far beyond the scope of this particular study. The minimum level of education that will be needed to succeed in Arizona's key occupations is at least some post-secondary education. The average educational level across the 70 key occupations is an Associate degree (BLS Level 6). The median Job Zone rating across the 70 key occupations is a three, meaning that most occupations in this zone require training in vocational schools, related on-thejob experience, or an associate's degree. Some may require a bachelor's degree. Previous work-related skill, knowledge, or experience is required for these occupations. The profile of key occupations shows that the majority of jobs across industries will require at least a level four of seven levels in all eight of the WorkKeys? skills, with a level five required for Applied Math and Reading for Information. 1.4. ENGLISH, MATH, CUSTOMER SERVICE, AND READING, ACTIVE LISTENING AND CRITICAL THINKING ARE THE MOST FREQUENTLY LISTED KNOWLEDGES AND SKILLS REQUIRED FOR THE SEVENTY (70) KEY OCCUPATIONS INVESTIGATED IN THIS STUDY.



Our analysis shows that the three most frequent knowledges cited for the 70 key occupations are: English Language: Knowledge of the structure and content of the English language including the meaning and spelling of words, rules of composition, and grammar



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Mathematics: Knowledge of arithmetic, algebra, geometry, calculus, statistics, and their applications. Customer and Personal Service: Knowledge of principles and processes for providing customer and personal service. This includes customer service needs assessment, meeting quality standards for services, and evaluation of customer satisfaction. The three most frequently cited skills are: Reading Comprehension: Understanding written sentences and paragraphs in work related documents. Active Listening: Giving full attention to what other people are saying, taking time to understand the points being made, asking questions as appropriate, and not interrupting at inappropriate times. Critical Thinking: Using logic and reasoning to identify the strengths and weaknesses of alternative solutions, conclusions or approaches to problems. 1.5. ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSIONS HELD WITH BUSINESS LEADERS CORROBORATED FINDINGS FROM THE VARIOUS CLASSIFICATION SYSTEMS AND ENHANCED THE UNDERSTANDING OF SPECIFIC INDUSTRY NEEDS.



Roundtable participants highlighted the following issues: Need for skilled workers. Roundtable participants validated the findings in the Arizona Department of Commerce report on the Construction industry that the hard to fill positions are those that require technical skills. Participants noted that there is a supply of low skill workers, however, once a worker achieves a skilled craft they leave the construction industry for other opportunities. Technical education opportunities are needed at an earlier stage. Participants noted that many training programs require individuals to be 18 or even 21 years of age. Many believed that is too late, and if students were introduced to the skills and training needed at an early age, more would choose a career in transportation. Participants identified a critical need being vocational/technical education in the high schools that not only gives students the opportunity to gain the skills needed in the



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industry, but also raise awareness about the opportunities available when a student graduates from high school. Participants added that these education opportunities allowed students to gain the soft skills, such as team work, that are important when entering the workforce. Teachers and school counselors need to be better connected with the opportunities in the health services industry. Many participants commented that teachers and counselors need to work with industry leaders on designing a curriculum that prepares students for knowledge and skills needed in the industry. Many noted that much has changed in the industry in the last five to ten years, and they did not believe teachers and counselors are aware of those changes. Examples included how to make labs in science classes more relevant and interesting. High schools need to make students aware of opportunities in the Construction industry. Participants believe that school counselors and teachers are not making students aware of the opportunities in the industry. Discussion focused on how students are told they can either go to college or "flip burgers." Participants noted that students are not aware of the career opportunities available, with good wages, in the Construction industry because teachers and counselors downplay the opportunities for non-college bound students. Similar to the comments from participants in the construction field, Transportation & Logistics industry participants think high schools are not making students aware of the opportunities in their industry. Transportation & Logistics jobs offer high school graduates an opportunity for jobs that are in demand with good wages. Several participants commented their industry is in high demand and high schools graduates that have math and reading skills can earn a better wage than in retail. Participants indicated they have job openings, and often must compete with those in the construction business for high school graduates willing to work outside. Applied Math, Science and Reading Comprehension is critical. Participants expressed concern that students who decided not to go to college do not apply themselves to math and science or reading skills because they are not told of the good jobs available in the Construction industry, for example. Participants believed that applied math and reading comprehension skills are the most important and are lacking from high school graduates. Their message was clear: high schools need to make non-college bound



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students aware that if they take math, science and reading classes in high school there is a high demand for them in the Construction industry. Participants were universal in their belief that the current high school graduation requirements are inadequate. Specifically, the math and science requirements needed to be raised. High school seniors should be taking math, and courses that can combine math and science should be available. Several participants noted that math and science courses need to better engage students. Too many students exit out of opportunities in the health service field because math and science courses are not captivating. Remediation is needed for nursing applicants. Participants noted that many nursing applicants need to take college remediation courses before they are eligible to enter nursing programs. Hard and soft skills are critically needed. Several participants commented that a work ethic and ability to learn technical skills are the entry requirements for a well paying job for students coming out of high school. Several comments were made about how high school students need better employability skills; that is, awareness of the importance of such things as attendance and timeliness. Communication skills were identified as also extremely important. Participants from the life science industry noted that many of their employers required strong speaking and presentation skills. Vocational education, clubs, and other extra curricular activities need to be available so students can understand the value of having skills that make a good team. The Health Services roundtable participants believed that overall the education level needed in the industry is higher than the national data indicates. Most expressed that a college education is critical to career readiness in the health services field. In addition, the skill requirements for the key occupations needed to be higher for registered nurses and physician assistants. Participants also indicated nurse practitioners, pharmacy technicians, and phlebotomists were also key occupations. In order to understand the education and training required for occupations critical to ongoing economic growth in Arizona, it is necessary to first establish some agreement about what those occupations are and in what industries the occupations are found. The goal of the occupational analysis for the Arizona Alignment Project is to provide a foundation for discussion of the demand for educational attainment levels and the state's ability to graduate students who can meet that demand. The ultimate focus is on the skills needed to fill occupations which are identified as being key to the growth



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and health of targeted industry sectors in the state. The creation of a select list of targeted occupations requires careful and thoughtful construction, since the skills represented by the occupations will be used as the point of comparison to the skills of Arizona's high school graduates, and potentially form the foundation of changes in policy. First, Public Works recognizes that Arizona state leaders have identified the state's most promising and most important industry sectors, and have funded analyses of six (6) industries to identify key occupations, and educational and training requirements for occupations within those industries. In addition, we reviewed key studies recently completed, received some preliminary data from studies currently being undertaken but not yet published, interviewed key informants, including members of the P-20 Council, conducted business roundtables, and analyzed national and state specific-data for the targeted industries. This section of the report details the methodology Public Works used to arrive at the final list of industries and occupations and provides an analysis of those industries and occupations. Discussions with the Governor's office were important to ensure that both the methodology and the resulting roster of occupations addressed the unique characteristics of each industry sector, as well as addressed the educational attainment and wages that the state wishes to foster as it prepares its citizens for the jobs of the future. Definitions

Industry: Economic units that are grouped together because they use like processes to produce goods or services. In order to receive its own 4-digit category, an industry must meet a certain level of economic significance based on the number of establishments, number of employees, payroll, value added and value of shipments.



Occupation: Classifications of work based upon work performed, skills, education, training, and credentials



2. APPROACH TO CHOOSING TARGETED INDUSTRIES The critical first step in the process involved identifying and defining the list of targeted industries from which the occupations would be drawn. Public Works was presented with the list of targeted industries that had been developed as part of Arizona's economic strategic plan. These industries have been identified as critical to the ongoing economic development of the state The list consisted of five industry sectors and eight sub-sectors identified as part of High Technology; covering 676 occupations. The industries identified included: Construction High Technology



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Aerospace Defense Information Technology Sustainable Systems Semiconductor Advanced Manufacturing Engineering Optics Life Science (Health and Bioscience) Tourism & Travel Transportation & Logistics In order to identify and analyze occupations in Arizona with the potential to help grow and support the targeted industries, Public Works first needed to define the targeted industries, which would then yield a list of occupations within each industry. In order to do this, Public Works converted the original list of industries into the 4-digit North American Classification System (NAICS) categories. Using this classification system enabled a cross section analysis of industries and avoided any overlap in industry categories to prevent double-counting or overstating the relative significance of any single industry, and thus any occupations within an industry. The result of the translation from the original list into NAICS categories is a list of eight industry sectors defined for this report. For ease of reference, a crosswalk of industry sectors is presented in Exhibit 1: Industry Crosswalk to identify the original industry and where it is addressed in the NAICS categories used for this report. In other words, Arizona has identified a list of strategic industry sectors. Public Works, for the purposes of this report, converted the list into standardized categories so that we could use standardized data to analyze and compare sectors and occupations. Industry definitions and key occupations included in each industry are discussed in greater detail in Section 4: Industry Profiles in this chapter.



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Exhibit 1 INDUSTRY CROSSWALK

Original List Construction High Technology Aerospace Defense Information Technology Sustainable Systems Semiconductor High Tech Manufacturing Engineering Optics Tourism & Travel Life Sciences (Health and Bioscience) Transportation & Logistics Construction Includes the following: Aerospace Aerospace Advanced Communications & Information Technology Included across multiple industries: Advanced Communications & Information Technology Included across multiple industries: Architecture, Engineering & Related Services Advanced Communications & Information Technology Tourism & Travel Life Sciences (Health Services) Transportation NAICS



Once this list was finalized, we reviewed Arizona-specific studies available for some industry clusters. These included: Arizona Department of Commerce, Building from a Position of Strength: Arizona Advanced Communications and Information Technology Roadmap, prepared by the Battelle Technology Partnership Practice, March 2004; Arizona Department of Commerce, A Workforce Needs Assessment of the Arizona Construction Trades Industry, prepared by ACCRA (Arlington, VA), February 2005;



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Arizona Department of Commerce, Positioning Arizona for the Next Big Technology Wave: Development and Investment Prospectus to Create a Sustainable Systems Industry in Arizona, prepared by the Battelle Technology Partnership Practice, March 2004; Arizona Bioscience Workforce Strategy: Preparing for the Future, Technology Partnership Practice Battelle Memorial Institute, October 2003. Competing with Talent: High Technology Manufacturing's Future in Greater Phoenix, prepared by the Battelle Technology Partnership Practice, December 2005. These studies provide comprehensive and thorough analyses of each particular industry covered. It became clear that the challenge for this current investigation was to not duplicate these studies, but to fill in the gaps for industries not covered by recent studies, and also to take a more global look and identify commonalities across industries. 2.1. SPECIAL CONSIDERATION OF HIGH TECHNOLOGY



"High Technology" is a catch-all term that can cover a wide range of activities. Ever since the 1980's, attempts have been made to define what is and is not "High Technology." Because "High Technology" can include everything from wireless telecommunications service to manufacturing computer components, it is too broad to be its own meaningful category. As a result, there is no NAICS category titled "High Technology." In Arizona, and for the scope of this study, "High Technology" is meant to include the eight industries, as shown in Exhibit 1. Therefore, despite the difference in category labels, Public Works has captured information for all the industries identified as strategic to Arizona's ongoing economic development. 3. GENERAL PROFILE OF ARIZONA OCCUPATIONS It is informative first to look at an analysis of Arizona's statewide Labor Market Information data. Exhibit 2: High Wage Jobs Training Requirements shows the training classification rating for the 270,218 high-wage jobs expected to be created in Arizona between 2003 and 2013. For purposes of this more general analysis of all Arizona occupations, high-wage is defined as paying above the median hourly rate of $13.10 per hour, a wage adequate to afford rent across the state. Just over 31.7 percent of the jobs will require no more than a high school education, while 39.9 percent of the jobs will require at least a bachelor's degree.



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Exhibit 2 HIGH-WAGE JOBS TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

Training Requirements

Code 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Description First professional degree Doctoral degree Master's degree Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience Bachelor's degree Associate degree Post-secondary vocational training Work experience in a related occupation (may require some postsecondary education) Long-term on-the-job training (more