Regional haze state implementation plan for the state of Arizona

              REGIONAL HAZE STATE IMPLEMENTATION PLAN FOR THE STATE OF ARIZONA















Air Quality Division Arizona Department of Environmental Quality















December 23, 2003















Acknowledgement















Greg Witherspoon







(July 4, 1948 ? December 24, 2001) Greg Witherspoon committed his professional career to the advancement of balanced environmental policies and programs in Arizona. He worked at the Salt River Project for over 20 years as a Principal Environmental Scientist. In this capacity, he was engaged in numerous environmental matters affecting power utilities and Arizona's natural resources. Among his many duties at SRP, Greg was actively involved in advancing air quality policies that would protect the public's enjoyment of the spectacular scenery in Arizona's national parks and wilderness areas. Greg participated in several technical committees to support the work of the Grand Canyon Visibility Commission in addressing regional haze visibility impairment in the Grand Canyon National Park and other Class I areas on the Colorado Plateau. He worked with other stakeholders throughout the west to advance technical and regulatory policies necessary to achieve long-term reductions of visibility impairing emissions. Greg was a champion of market based emission reductions as the vehicle for achieving air quality goals in the most cost effective manner. Greg was the consummate professional throughout the stakeholder process. He came to meetings thoroughly prepared. He readily shared his expertise and valued the input of others. He sought to build consensus among all the stakeholders throughout the process. Greg was instrumental in helping Arizona decide to base its Regional Haze State Implementation Plan on the program conceived by the Grand Canyon Visibility Commission and developed by its successor organization, the Western Regional Air Partnership.















TABLE OF CONTENTS







TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................................................ i LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................................... v LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................................................... vi LIST OF APPENDICES .......................................................................................................................... vii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................. ES-1 1. 1.1. 1.2. 1.3. 1.4. 1.5. 1.6. 1.7. 1.8. 1.9. 1.10. 2. 2.1. 2.2. 2.3. 3. BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 Definitions ................................................................................................................................... 1 1977 Clean Air Act...................................................................................................................... 1 Reasonably Attributable Visibility Impairment........................................................................... 2 1990 Clean Air Act...................................................................................................................... 2 Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission ........................................................................ 2 Western Regional Air Partnership ............................................................................................... 3 1999 Regional Haze Rule ............................................................................................................ 3 2002 Annex Rule for Stationary Sources of Sulfur Dioxide ....................................................... 3 2003 Rule Change to Mobile Source Requirements for National Strategies .............................. 6 PHYSICAL, DEMOGRAPHIC, AND ECONOMIC DESCRIPTIONS OF ARIZONA ........ 7 Climate and Physiography........................................................................................................... 7 Population.................................................................................................................................... 8 Economy.................................................................................................................................... 11















MANDATORY CLASS I FEDERAL AREAS ON THE COLORADO PLATEAU............. 15 3.1. Arizona Class I Areas ................................................................................................................ 15 3.1.1. Grand Canyon National Park .................................................................................................. 16 3.1.2. Sycamore Canyon Wilderness................................................................................................. 18 3.1.3. Petrified Forest National Park ................................................................................................. 19 3.1.4. Mt. Baldy Wilderness.............................................................................................................. 20 3.2. Class I Areas Outside Arizona................................................................................................... 21 TECHNICAL BASIS FOR REGULATION OF REGIONAL HAZE.................................... 23 How Do We See? ...................................................................................................................... 23 How Particulates and Gases Impair Visibility........................................................................... 24 Types of Particles and Gases Contributing to Visibility Impairment........................................ 25 Sources of Particulates and Gases Contributing to Visibility Impairment on the Colorado Plateau ................................................................................................................................... 26 4.5. Visibility Conditions on the Colorado Plateau .......................................................................... 26 4.6. State of Arizona Visibility Monitoring Plan and Network ........................................................ 26 4.1. 4.2. 4.3. 4.4. STRATEGY TO ADDRESS REASONABLY ATTRIBUTABLE VISIBILITY IMPAIRMENT (RAVI)............................................................................................................... 29 5.1. Implementation of Control Strategies........................................................................................ 30















4.















5.















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5.2. 5.3. 5.4. 5.5. 5.6. 6. 6.1. 6.2. 6.3. 7. 7.1. 7.2. 7.3. 8.















Exemptions from Controls......................................................................................................... 30 Identification of Integral Vistas................................................................................................. 30 Monitoring................................................................................................................................. 30 Long-term Strategy Requirements............................................................................................. 31 New Source Review for Visibility Protection ........................................................................... 31 LONG-TERM STRATEGY FOR THE CLEAN AIR CORRIDOR ...................................... 33 Regulatory History and Requirements ...................................................................................... 33 Identification of Clean Air Corridor; Other Clean Air Corridors.............................................. 34 Strategy for Clean Air Corridors ............................................................................................... 35 LONG-TERM STRATEGY FOR STATIONARY SOURCES.............................................. 37 Regulatory History and Requirements ...................................................................................... 37 Monitoring and Reporting of Stationary Source Sulfur Dioxide Emissions. ............................ 38 Report on Assessment of NOx/PM Strategies........................................................................... 39















SO2 MILESTONES AND BACKSTOP TRADING PROGRAM ........................................... 41 8.1. Milestones and Determination of Program Trigger................................................................... 41 8.1.1. Regional SO2 Milestones......................................................................................................... 41 8.1.2. Regional Program Administration........................................................................................... 44 8.1.3. Determination of Program Trigger.......................................................................................... 44 8.1.4. Year 2013 Assessment ............................................................................................................ 49 8.1.5. Special Penalty Provisions for the 2018 Milestone ................................................................. 50 8.2. Pre-Trigger Emissions Tracking Requirements......................................................................... 51 8.2.1. SO2 Emission Inventory .......................................................................................................... 51 8.2.2. Development of Emission Tracking System ........................................................................... 52 8.2.3. Periodic Audit of Pre-Trigger Emission Tracking Database................................................... 52 8.3. WEB Trading Program Requirements....................................................................................... 52 8.3.1. Initial Allocation of SO2 Allowances ...................................................................................... 52 8.3.2. Distribution of Allowances for Future Control Periods. ......................................................... 59 8.3.3. Distribution of the New Source Allocation ............................................................................. 60 8.3.4. Regional Tribal Set-aside ........................................................................................................ 61 8.3.5. Opt-in Sources......................................................................................................................... 61 8.3.6. WEB Allowance Tracking System (WEB ATS)..................................................................... 61 8.3.7. Allowance Transfers................................................................................................................ 63 8.3.8. Use of Allowances from a Previous Year ............................................................................... 63 8.3.9. Monitoring/Recordkeeping ..................................................................................................... 65 8.3.10. Compliance and Penalties ..................................................................................................... 66 8.3.11. Periodic Evaluation of the Trading Program......................................................................... 66 8.3.12. Retired Source Exemption .................................................................................................... 68 8.3.13. Integration into Permits......................................................................................................... 68 8.4. 2013 SIP Revision; Backstop for Beginning of Second Planning Period ................................. 69 8.5 Geographic Enhancement Program ........................................................................................... 69 9.1. 9.2. 9.3. LONG-TERM STRATEGY FOR MOBILE SOURCES......................................................... 71 Regulatory History and Requirements ...................................................................................... 71 Inventory of Current and Projected Emissions from Mobile Sources ....................................... 72 Other GCVTC Strategies for Mobile Sources ........................................................................... 73















9.















LONG-TERM STRATEGY FOR FIRE PROGRAMS ........................................................... 75 10. 10.1. Regulatory History and Requirements ...................................................................................... 75 Table of Contents ii Arizona Regional Haze SIP















10.2. 10.3. 10.4. 10.5. 10.6.















Prescribed Fire Program Evaluation.......................................................................................... 75 Emission Inventory and Tracking System................................................................................. 75 Strategy for Use of Non-burning Alternatives........................................................................... 76 Enhanced Smoke Management Program................................................................................... 76 Annual Emission Goal............................................................................................................... 77















11. AREA SOURCES OF DUST EMISSIONS FROM PAVED AND UNPAVED ROADS ...... 79 11.1. Regulatory History and Requirements ...................................................................................... 79 11.2. Strategy for Road Dust Sources................................................................................................. 79 12. POLLUTION PREVENTION AND RENEWABLE ENERGY PROGRAMS ..................... 81 12.1. Regulatory History and Requirements ...................................................................................... 81 12.2. Approach to Addressing Requirements Under 40 CFR 51.309(d)(8) ....................................... 81 12.3. Description of Existing Pollution Prevention Programs in Arizona.......................................... 82 12.4. Inventory of All Renewable Energy Generation Capacity and Production in Arizona............. 98 12.5. Summary of Anticipated Renewable Energy Contribution ....................................................... 99 12.6. Incentive Programs .................................................................................................................. 100 12.7. Programs to Preserve and Expand Energy Conservation Efforts ............................................ 100 12.8. Potential for Renewable Energy .............................................................................................. 106 12.9. Projections of Renewable Energy Goals, Energy Efficiency, and Pollution Prevention Activities ............................................................................................................................. 113 12.10. Programs to Achieve GCVTC Renewable Energy Goal ......................................................... 113 12.11. Future Progress Reports........................................................................................................... 113 13. OTHER GCVTC RECOMMENDATIONS............................................................................ 115 13.1. Regulatory History and Requirements .................................................................................... 115 13.2. Other Long-term Strategy Components .................................................................................. 115 13.3. Sources In and Near GCVTC Class I Areas............................................................................ 115 13.3.1. Grand Canyon National Park .............................................................................................. 116 13.3.2. Mt. Baldy Wilderness Area................................................................................................. 116 13.3.3. Petrified Forest National Park ............................................................................................. 116 13.3.4. Sycamore Canyon Wilderness ............................................................................................ 117 PROJECTION OF VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT ............................................................. 119 14. 14.1. Effect on Emissions of Long-term Strategy Components ....................................................... 119 14.1.1. Inventory Methodology and Scope ..................................................................................... 119 14.1.2. Projected Changes in Emissions for Arizona ...................................................................... 120 14.2. Projected Changes in Visual Air Quality................................................................................. 121 14.2.1. Applicable Class I Areas ..................................................................................................... 121 14.2.2. Projected visibility improvement ........................................................................................ 121 15. STATE PLANNING/INTERSTATE COORDINATION AND TRIBAL IMPLEMENTATION ............................................................................................................... 125 15.1. Participation in Regional Planning and Coordination ............................................................. 125 15.2. Applicability to Tribal Lands .................................................................................................. 125 PERIODIC IMPLEMENTATION PLAN REVISION.......................................................... 127 DECLARATION OF TREATMENT FOR ADDITIONAL CLASS I AREAS UNDER 40 CFR 51.309(g)........................................................................................................................ 129















16. 17.















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18. PUBLIC PARTICIPATION AND REVIEW PROCESS ...................................................... 131 18.1. Public Hearing Notice ............................................................................................................. 131 18.2. Hearing Transcripts ................................................................................................................. 131 18.3. Written Comments Received................................................................................................... 131 18.4. Responsiveness Summary ....................................................................................................... 131















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LIST OF FIGURES







Figure 1-1. Figure 2-1. Figure 2-2. Figure 2-3. Figure 3-1. Figure 3-2. Figure 3-3. Figure 3-4. Figure 3-5. Figure 3-6. Figure 3-7. Figure 3-8. Figure 4-1. Figure 6-1. Figure 7-1. Figure 12-1. Figure 12-2. Figure 12-3. Figure 12-4. Figure 12-5. Figure 12-6. Figure 17-1. Western Regional Air Partnership Region ............................................................................. 5 Class I Areas and Physiography Regions in Arizona............................................................. 7 Counties and Class I Areas in Arizona................................................................................... 9 Non-Farm Employment in Arizona: 1990-2001 .................................................................. 12 Colorado Plateau Class I areas ............................................................................................. 15 Arizona Class I Areas........................................................................................................... 16 View From South Rim of The Grand Canyon National Park .............................................. 17 Map of Grand Canyon National Park Area .......................................................................... 17 Map of Sycamore Canyon Wilderness Area ........................................................................ 18 Petrified Forest National Park .............................................................................................. 19 Map of Petrified Forest National Park Area................................................................... .... 19 Map of Mount Baldy Wilderness Area ................................................................................ 20 Interaction of Particles and Gases with Light ...................................................................... 24 Map of the Clean Air Corridor in the Transport Region ...................................................... 34 Regional Sulfur Dioxide Emission Milestones .................................................................... 37 Map of Arizona Solar Photovoltaic Resources .................................................................. 107 Map of Arizona Concentrating Solar Power Resources..................................................... 108 Map of Arizona Biomass Energy Resources...................................................................... 109 Map of Arizona Collocated Gerthermal Energy Resources ............................................... 110 Projected Cost of Solar Energy Technologies.................................................................... 111 Projected Cost of Energy from Renewable Energy Technologies - 2000.......................... 112 Arizona Additional non-GCVTC Class I Areas................................................................ 129















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LIST OF TABLES







Table ES-1. Requirements for Reasonably Attributable Visibility Impairment Under 40 CFR 51.302 through 307 ................................................................................... ES-1 Table ES-2. Summary of Requirements for Regional Haze Visibility Impairment Under 40 CFR 51.309........................................................................................................ ES-2 Table 2-1. Arizona's Urbanized Areas: Census 2000............................................................................... 9 Table 2-2. Growth of Arizona's Counties: 2000-2002 ........................................................................... 10 Table 2-3. Population Projections for Selected Arizona MSAs and Counties: 2000-2020 .................... 11 Table 2-4. Average Number of Non-Farm Employees in Arizona 1990-2001 (10,000s)....................... 12 Table 2-5. Projected Economic Indicators for Arizona: 2001-2005 ....................................................... 13 Table 4-1. Light Extinction Efficiencies of Particles.............................................................................. 25 Table 7-1. State-by-State Comparison of 1990 and 2000 Stationary Sources Sulfur Dioxide Emissions in the 9 GCVTC Transport Region States (tons per year)...................... 38 Table 8-1. Base Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Milestones (excludes Smelter Set-aside) ............................ 41 Table 8-2a. (Years 2003-2010) Amounts of SO2 Tons To Be Subtracted from the Base Milestones for States and Tribes That Do Not Have an Approved Implementation Plan under 40 CFR 51.309* .................................................................. .... 42 Table 8-2b. (Years 2011-2018) Amounts of SO2 To Be Subtracted from the Base Milestones for States and Tribes that do not have an Approved Implementation Plan under 40 CFR 51.309*........................................................................................................... 42 Table 8-3. Preliminary Smelter-Specific Set Aside ................................................................................ 43 Table 8-4. Utility/Non utility Split.......................................................................................................... 56 Table 8-5. New Source Set-Aside Adjustment ....................................................................................... 56 Table 9-1. Statewide Mobile Source Emissions for Arizona (Tons per Day)......................................... 72 Table 10-1. Inclusion of ESMP Elements Into Arizona Regulations ....................................................... 77 Table 12-1. Arizona's Approach to Address 40 CFR 51.309(d) Requirements ....................................... 82 Table 12-2. Summary of Renewable Energy Programs Currently in Place in Arizona............................ 82 Table 12-3. Summary of Energy Efficiency Programs in Place in Arizona ............................................. 86 Table 12-4. Planned Renewable Energy Capacity at of 2002................................................................... 97 Table 12-5. Summary of Renewable Energy Generation Capacity and Production ................................. 99 Table 12-6. Summary of Arizona's Total Encergy Generation Capacity and Production........................ 99 Table 12-7. Summary of Arizona's Incentive Programs ........................................................................ 100 Table 12-8. Programs that Preserve and Expand Energy Conservation in Arizona ............................... 100 Table 12-9. Cost Estimates of Solar Options.......................................................................................... 112 Table 14-1. Changes in Emissions from 1996 to 2018 for Arizona Sources (Tons per Year)................ 121 Table 14-2. Changes iin Emissions from 1996 to 2018 for 9 GCVTC States (Tons per Year).............. 121 Table 14-3. Projected Visibility Improvement at the 16 Colorado Plateau Class I Areas in 2018 on the Average 20% Worst Days, resulting from implementation of "All 309 Control Strategies"................................................................................................ 122 Table 14-4. Projected Visibility Improvement at the 16 Colorado Plateau Class I Areas in 2018, on the Average 20% Best Visibility Days, resulting from implementation of "All 309 Control Strategies"................................................................................................ 123















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LIST OF APPENDICES







APPENDIX VOLUME I







APPENDIX A-1. BACKGROUND Appendix A-1a. Definitions Appendix A-1b. Arizona Department of Environmental Quality ? Air Quality Division Organization Charts APPENDIX A-2. DESCRIPTIONS OF ARIZONA Appendix A-2a. Bibliography for Chapter 2 APPENDIX A-5. ATTRIBUTABLE IMPAIRMENT Appendix A-5a. Arizona's RAVI rule Appendix A-5b. Notification letters to FLMS on contact person, and Public Comment Period Appendix A-5c. Supporting Documents Related To The Promulgation Of Arizona's RAVI Rule Appendix A-5d. New source review rule-R18-2-410 APPENDIX A-6. CLEAN AIR CORRIDOR Appendix A-6a. WRAP Policy on Clean Air Corridors Appendix A-6b. WRAP Emission Tracking System and Assessment Process for the Clean Air Corridor APPENDIX A-7. STATIONARY SOURCES Appendix A-7a. Arizona Draft Western Backstop SO2 Trading Program Rule Appendix A-7b. Proposed WRAP 309 Coordinating Committee Charter Appendix A-7c. WRAP Report on Assessment of NOx/PM Strategies APPENDIX A-8. SO2 MILESTONES/BACKSTOP Appendix A-8a. WRAP Market Trading Forum Non-Utility Sector Allocation Final Report from the Allocations Working Group (November 2002) Appendix A-8b. Western Emissions Backstop (WEB) Emissions & Allowance Tracking Systerm (EATS) Analysis Appendix A-8c. Recommendations for Making Additional Determinations in the Context of Reasonably Attributable BART APPENDIX A-9. MOBILE SOURCES







Appendix A-9a. Arizona Mobile Source Work Group Findings and Recommendations Related to Mobile Source Emissions















APPENDIX VOLUME II







APPENDIX A-10. FIRE PROGRAMS Appendix A-10a. WRAP report "Assessing Status of Incorporating Smoke Effects into Fire Planning and Operation" Appendix A-10b. EPA's "Interim Air Quality Policy on Wildland and Prescribed Fires"















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Appendix A-10c. Revised Arizona R18-2-602, "Unlawful Open Burning" and Article 15, "Forest and Range Management Burns" Appendix A-10d. Supporting Documents Related to the Promulgation of Revised Arizona R18-2602, "Unlawful Open Burning" and Article 15, "Forest and Range Management Burns" Appendix A-10e. WRAP "Policy on Fire Tracking Systems" Appendix A-10f. WRAP report "Nonburning Alternatives for Vegetation and Fuel Management" Appendix A-10g. WRAP report "Burning Management Alternatives on Agricultural Lands in the Western United States" Appendix A-10h. WRAP report "Enhanced Smoke Management Programs for Visibility" Appendix A-10i. Arizona Revised Statute 49-501 Appendix A-10j. WRAP report "Annual Emission Goals for Fire"















APPENDIX VOLUME III







APPENDIX A-12. POLLUTION PREVENTION Appendix A-12a. Arizona Pollution Prevention Work Group Review of WRAP Policy on Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation Appendix A-12b. Details of Renewable Energy Generation and Capacity Appendix A-12c. ICF Assessment of Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation Programs APPENDIX A-13. OTHER GCVTC OPTIONS Appendix A-13a. Arizona's Assessment of Other Recommendations Of The Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission Appendix A-13b. Summary of Discussions with Federal Land Managers on Emissions In-andNear the Four Arizona GCVTC Class I Areas APPENDIX A-14. PROJECTION OF VISIBILITY Appendix A-14a. Arizona Technical Review Memoranda of WRAP Emission Inventories and Technical Support Document Appendix A-14b. Summary of Emission Inventories used in WRAP Modeling APPENDIX A-18. PUBLIC PARTICIPATION Appendix A-18a. Notices of Public Hearings Appendix A-18b. Hearing Agendas, Sign-in Sheets, Transcripts, and Certifications Appendix A-18c. Written Comments Received During Comment Period Appendix A-18d. Responsiveness Summary















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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY







This Arizona State Implementation Plan (SIP) addresses the requirements of Title 40 of the Code of Federal Regulations, Part 51, Subpart P ? Protection of Visibility (40 CFR 51.300-307, and 309). The SIP describes the programs that the State will rely upon to make reasonable progress toward "preventing any future and ... remedying any existing impairment of visibility" in the large parks and wilderness areas in Arizona and those in other states that may be affected by pollution generated in Arizona (Class I areas). The federal regional haze rules require states to develop and submit SIPs for improving visibility through the year 2018 that make reasonable progress toward achieving "natural visibility conditions" by the year 2064. This SIP is designed to adopt the basic visibility program that addresses impairment of visibility that can be traced to older major industrial sources and implements recommendations adopted by the Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission (GCVTC) in its 1996 report to EPA. The Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) is the successor organization to GCVTC, and, in addition to being chartered to implement the GCVTC's recommendations, provides the mechanism for states and tribes to coordinate efforts and pool resources to conduct the complex technical analyses necessary to develop the science that is part of the foundation of regional haze SIPs. Arizona State government officials and employees and a variety of Arizona stakeholders actively participate in WRAP committees and workgroups to direct the policy and technical products of the WRAP. As such, this SIP revision relies on much of the work conducted by WRAP staff and contractors. Chapters 1 through 4 of this SIP include introductory and background information about visibility protection and regional haze. Chapter 5 is the plan for implementation of the rules and regulations addressing reasonably attributable visibility impairment, in addition to monitoring, planning, and new source review requirements under 40 CFR 51.300-307. Chapters 6 through 17 include Arizona's approach to meeting the requirements for developing long-term visibility improvement strategies for regional haze under 40 CFR 51.309. Chapter 18 summarizes the public participation process in developing this SIP as required under 40 CFR 51.102. Table ES-1 summarizes the requirements in 40 CFR 51.302-307 for reasonably attributable visibility impairment, the approach taken by the State of Arizona to address the requirements, and the chapter in this SIP addressing the requirements. Table ES-1. Requirements for Reasonably Attributable Visibility Impairment Under 40 CFR 51.302 through 307 Requirements of 40 CFR 51.302 Implementation control strategies for reasonably attributable visibility impairment. 40 CFR 51.303 Exemptions from control. 40 CFR 51.304 Identification of integral vistas. Summary of Approach, Content, or Findings Arizona has promulgated regulations in 2003 to address the implementation of controls, as needed, for sources subject to the best available retrofit technology requirements of the 1977 Clean Air Act for reasonably attributable visibility impairment (RAVI). Arizona has incorporated into the Arizona RAVI rule the necessary provisions to address the petition of BART emissions limits to the EPA Administrator. No integral vistas were identified for the Class I areas on the Colorado Plateau addressed by this SIP or the other Additional Class I areas in Arizona. Chapter in SIP 5.1















5.2 5.3















Executive Summary















ES - 1















Arizona Regional Haze SIP















Requirements of 40 CFR 51.305 Monitoring for reasonably attributable visibility impairment.















40 CFR 51.306 Long-term strategy requirements for reasonably attributable visibility impairment. 40 CFR 51.307 New source review.















Summary of Approach, Content, or Findings Arizona established a comprehensive visibility monitoring program for the Class I areas and other transport sites in 1996. Arizona is an associate member of the IMPROVE Steering Committee and ensures information from the Arizona network is submitted as required, and participates in the technical leadership of the overall IMPROVE program. Arizona has included in the SIP comprehensive long-term strategy components to address regional haze visibility impairment and RAVI from BART eligible sources.















Chapter in SIP 5.4















5.5















Arizona's R18-2-410 (Article 4, New Source Review, Arizona Administrative Code) address requirements of new sources to meet performance standards to assure emissions will not have an impact on visibility.















5.6















Table ES-2 summarizes the requirements in 40 CFR 51.309 for regional haze, the approach taken by the State of Arizona to address the requirements, and the chapter in this SIP addressing the requirements. Table ES-2. Summary of Requirements for Regional Haze Visibility Impairment Under 40 CFR 51.309 Requirement of 40 CFR 51.309 (d)(1) Time Period Covered (d)(2) Projection of Visibility Improvement (d)(3) Treatment of Clean Air Corridors (d)(4), (f), and (h) Implementation of Stationary Source Reductions (d)(5) Mobile Sources Summary of Approach, Content, or Findings This SIP addresses reasonable progress at the Class I areas on the Colorado Plateau from December 31, 2003 through December 31, 2018. Projected emissions and estimated visibility changes for each of the Class I areas on the Colorado Plateau were performed by the Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP). The only Clean Air Corridor for the Class I areas on the Colorado Plateau does not include any area within Arizona. Arizona will include the results of future analyses in its periodic plan revisions. General stationary source requirements are contained in Chapter 7. Chapter 8 contains a description of the SO2 Milestone and Backstop Trading Program. Federal programs (such as low sulfur diesel, engine standards, etc.) are identified and describe mobile source emissions throughout the planning period. Chapter in SIP 1.1 Ch. 14















Ch. 6















Ch. 7 (general) Ch. 8 (SO2) Ch. 9















Executive Summary















ES - 2















Arizona Regional Haze SIP















Requirement of 40 CFR 51.309 (d)(6) Programs Related to Fire (d)(7) Area Sources of Dust Emissions From Paved and Unpaved Roads (d)(8) Pollution Prevention (d)(9) Additional Recommendations















(d)(10) Periodic Revisions (d)(11) State Planning and Interstate Coordination (f)(4) Geographic Enhancement















(g) Reasonable Progress for Additional Class I Areas















Summary of Approach, Content, or Findings Arizona revised its open burning and smoke management regulations (A.A.C. R18-2-602 and A.A.C R18-2-1501 1515) to address the federal requirements. WRAP's analysis concluded dust emissions from paved and unpaged roads are currently not a significant regional contributor to visibility impairment within the Colorado Plateau 16 Class I areas. Arizona will continue to support further research on this issue, as it develops its periodic plan revisions under 40 CFR 51.309(d)(10). Programs and policies within Arizona related to renewable energy and energy efficiency are described. The status of implementation of other strategies and options in the Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission Report are summarized. In addition, an overview of sources in and near each Arizona GCVTC Class I area is included. Arizona will submit periodic plan revisions to this SIP in 2008, 2013 and 2018. Arizona has and will continue to participate in the WRAP. As periodic plan revisions are done, consultation will also be made with states and tribes not implementing 40 CFR 51.309. WRAP has developed a model MOA to be executed by Arizona and Federal Land managers to address geographic enhancement of the regional haze SO2 Milestone and Backstop Trading Program (Ch. 8) for reasonably attributable visibility impairment. A supplement to this plan revision to address regional haze at the Additional 8 Class I areas in Arizona will be developed in accordance with 40 CFR 51.309(g)(2-3) and submitted by December 31, 2008.















Chapter in SIP Ch. 10 Ch. 11















Ch. 12 Ch. 13















Ch. 16 Ch. 15















Ch. 8 in 8.5















Ch. 17















While the above tables are organized in the order of the provisions of the regional haze rule, the SIP itself is organized according to the logic of pollution control plans. Consequently, the chapters of the SIP do not correspond precisely to the order of the requirements in the regional haze rule. Finally, the Technical Support Document (TSD) developed by the Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) is a reference for this SIP (herein referred to as the "WRAP TSD").















Executive Summary















ES - 3















Arizona Regional Haze SIP















1.







1.1.















BACKGROUND







Introduction















Good visibility is important to fully enjoy the experience of visiting the State's and Country's national parks and wilderness areas. Visibility is how far and how well a person can see, and can be reduced or impaired by light scattering and absorption caused by particulate matter and gases in the atmosphere that occur from both natural and human-caused activities. Visibility impairing natural sources may include rain, wildland fires, volcanic activity, and wind blown dust. Visibility also can be impaired by human-caused sources of air pollution such as industrial processes, (utilities, smelters, refineries, etc.), mobile sources (cars, trucks, trains, etc.) and area sources (residential wood burning, prescribed burning, agricultural activities, wind blown dust from disturbed soils, etc.) Congress established a program to protect visibility in the larger national parks and wilderness areas which referred to as the mandatory Class I Federal areas (herein referred to as "Class I areas"). The State of Arizona is submitting this SIP to address the requirements (40 CFR 51.300-307) for visibility protection in the Class I areas and remove the existing Federal Implementation Plan (FIP) (52 FR 45132, November 24, 1987). This SIP also fulfills the requirements under 40 CFR 51.309 for Arizona's 4 Colorado Plateau Class I areas in addition to the other 12 Class I areas studied by the Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission (GCVTC). It contains all necessary measures to address reasonably attributable visibility impairment and regional haze visibility impairment necessary to ensure the State of Arizona makes reasonable progress toward the national goal for visibility contained in 42 U.S.C. 7491 (Clean Air Act), specifically "...the prevention of any future, and remedying of any existing impairment of visibility in mandatory Class I Federal areas, which impairment results from man-made air pollution." The Regional Haze Rule (RHR) defines this goal as achieving natural visibility conditions by 2064. This SIP addresses reasonable progress toward the national goal for the planning period from December 31, 2003 thorough December 31, 2018.















1.2.















Definitions















This SIP duplicates terms and phrases defined in 40 CFR 51.301, 40 CFR 51.309(b), and other terms specific to the programs set forth in this Plan. These definitions are contained in Appendix A-1a of this SIP.















1.3.















1977 Clean Air Act















In the 1977 Clean Air Act (CAA), Congress established requirements for the prevention of significant deterioration of air quality in areas within the United States and for the review of pollution controls on new sources.1 Coupled with this, Congress established a visibility protection program and the national goal (Section 169A) for larger national parks and wilderness areas.2 The visibility protection program also requires states to address any visibility impairment caused by emissions of air pollutants from certain large industrial sources if the source was less than 15 years old as of August 1977, through the establishment of emission limits based on best available retrofit technology (BART). Congress also







1















Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977, United States Congress. 42 U.S.C. 7470-7479. Government Printing Office: Washington, D.C. August 7, 1977. Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977, Section 169A, United States Congress. 42 U.S.C. 7491. Government Printing Office: Washington, D.C. August 7, 1977.















2















Chapter 1 ? Background















-1-















Arizona Regional Haze SIP















established mandatory criteria for states to use when establishing BART emission limits and developing long-term strategies for reasonable progress toward the national goal.















1.4.















Reasonably Attributable Visibility Impairment















In 1980, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued final regulations to address the requirements of the 1977 Clean Air Act, requiring states with Class I areas to submit State Implementation Plan (SIP) revisions with new source review plans, monitoring plans, BART implementation plans, and long-term strategies to address reasonable progress toward the national visibility goal.3 Arizona did not submit a SIP to address visibility, and in 1987 (52 FR 45132) EPA issued a Federal Implementation Plan.















1.5.















1990 Clean Air Act















Although the 1980 regulations addressed reasonably attributable visibility impairment from specific sources, also know as plume blight, it did not adequately address visibility impairment from large collections of sources whose emissions are mixed and transported over long distances, creating a uniform haze (regional haze). In the 1990 amendments to the Clean Air Act (CAA), Congress established the requirements to address regional haze visibility impairment, giving the EPA authority to establish visibility transport commissions and promulgate regulations to address regional haze, and requiring the establishment of a visibility transport commission to investigate and report on regional haze visibility impairment in the Grand Canyon National Park located in northern Arizona.4 The Regional Haze SIP meets the requirements of Section 110, Implementation Plans, of the CAA. Demonstration of the public review process can be found in Chapter 18 and its related Appendix. Information to satisfy Section 110(a)(2)(E), adequate personnel to carry out such an implementation plan, can be found in Appendix A-1b).















1.6.















Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission















In response to the 1990 CAA, the Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission (GCVTC) was established in November 1991. Membership evolved over the approximately four and one-half years of its activities. When the GCVTC issued recommendations to EPA in June 1996, membership consisted of eight western governors (or their designees), four western tribal leaders, five ex-officio members representing federal land management agencies, an ex-officio tribal representative, and EPA. The transport region studied by the GCVTC consisted of nine western states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming. Arizona's Governor Symington chaired the GCVTC. The GCVTC members agreed to expand the scope of technical and policy studies to include all 16 of the Class I areas on the Colorado Plateau. The GCVTC elected to use a stakeholder-driven process to accomplish its objectives to review current science and policy information and determine what actions, if any, were needed to address regional haze visibility impairment at the Class I areas on the Colorado Plateau. Ultimately, the organization included over 200 political, policy and technical stakeholders, who staffed a variety of committees and subcommittees. The GCVTC was funded by EPA grants and contributions from stakeholders, including substantial in-kind labor. The GCVTC submitted its recommendations to EPA in June 1996.5 The major recommendations of the GCVTC included:







40 CFR Part 51 - Protection of Visibility, United States Environmental Protection Agency, 45 FR 80089. Government Printing Office: Washington, D.C. December 2, 1980. 4 Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, Section 169B, United States Congress. 42 U.S.C. 7492. Government Printing Office: Washington, D.C. November 15, 1990. 5 Recommendations for Improving Western Vistas, Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission; Western Governors' Association: Denver, CO, June 10, 1996.







3















Chapter 1 ? Background















-2-















Arizona Regional Haze SIP















? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?















The need to promote energy conservation, energy efficiency and renewable energy production; The need to track emissions growth that may affect air quality in clean air corridors; The need to manage emissions of stationary sources of sulfur dioxide with a voluntary program using emission reduction milestones coupled with a backstop cap-and-trade program that would be implemented if emissions reductions milestones were exceeded. The need to cooperate and work with federal land managers to do further studies of sources in and adjacent to Class I areas; The need to manage emissions of mobile sources through the implementation of more stringent national engine and fuel standards; The need to manage emissions of mobile sources from large urban areas that contribute significantly to visibility impairment in any of the 16 GCVTC Class I areas; The need to analyze the contribution of road dust emissions on visibility in the Class I areas; The need to promote programs to encourage emissions reductions in Mexico; The need to manage the visibility impacts resulting from the growth of emissions from prescribed fires needed to restore the ecosystem; and, The need to establish a successor organization to the GCVTC to oversee, promote, and support the GCVTC's recommendations.















1.7.















Western Regional Air Partnership















The GCVTC's successor, the Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) was formed in September 1997. Though the WRAP's charter allows it to address any air quality issue of interest to WRAP members, its current work is focused on developing the policy and technical work products needed by states and tribes for regional haze SIPs or Tribal Implementation Plans (TIPs). Figure 1-1 shows the WRAP region. The WRAP Board is composed of representatives from 13 states, 13 tribes, the US Department of Agriculture, the US Department of the Interior, and EPA. The WRAP operates on a consensus basis and conducts business through stakeholder-based technical and policy groups charged with assisting the development of regional haze work products. Additional information about the WRAP can be found at http://www.wrapair.org.















1.8.















1999 Regional Haze Rule















EPA proposed regional haze regulations in 1997.6 The proposed regulations described a national program but did not include provisions to address the recommendations of the GCVTC. The Western Governors' Association (WGA) subsequently developed a recommendation related to the Colorado Plateau area and submitted it to EPA in June 1998.7 Based on this and other comments, EPA issued the final regional haze rule in July 1999. In addition to the national program that could apply to any state or tribe and the final rule contained requirements for an optional program relying on the work of the GCVTC.8















1.9.







6















2002 Annex Rule for Stationary Sources of Sulfur Dioxide







One of the requirements of the RHR was the development and submission to EPA of a















40 CFR Part 51 - Regional Haze Regulations; Proposed Rule - 62 FR 41138. United States Environmental Protection Agency, Government Printing Office: Washington, D.C. July 31, 1997. 7 Leavitt, M. O, Governor of Utah, Letter to EPA Administrator Browner on behalf of the Western Governors' Association, June 29, 1998. 8 40 CFR Part 51 - Regional Haze Rule; Final Rule, 64 FR 35714. United States Environmental Protection Agency, Government Printing Office: Washington, D.C. July 1, 1999.















Chapter 1 ? Background















-3-















Arizona Regional Haze SIP















supplement or Annex to the GCVTC recommendations to define the program for stationary sources of sulfur dioxide by October 1, 2000. The WRAP established the Market Trading Forum (MTF) consisting of key stakeholders in the region to develop the Annex. The MTF analyzed the technical and policy issues surrounding the establishment of the voluntary emission reduction milestones with a backstop program to assure emission reductions were achieved and deliberated the content of the Annex.















Chapter 1 ? Background















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Arizona Regional Haze SIP















Figure 1-1. Western Regional Air Partnership Region















Chapter 1 ? Background















-5-















Arizona Regional Haze SIP















The WRAP approved and submitted the Annex to the GCVTC recommendations to define a voluntary program of sulfur dioxide emission reduction milestones coupled with a backstop markettrading program to assure emission reductions on September 30, 2000. EPA proposed changes to the regional haze rule to incorporate the GCVTC Annex,9 and the final rule was published in the Federal Register on June 5, 2003 (68 FR 33764).















1.10. 2003 Rule Change to Mobile Source Requirements for National Strategies







The GCVTC developed long-term projections of emissions in the GCVTC transport region based on information available in the early 1990's. Those emission projections showed that emissions from mobile sources were expected to decline through approximately 2005 and then begin to increase through 2040. As a result, the GCVTC recommendations included recommended actions for national strategies, that were out of the control of the GCVTC, and local strategies. The local strategies included the concept of capping emissions from mobile sources in large urban areas that contribute significantly to visibility impairment in any of the 16 GCVTC Class I areas in the year 2005, or some other year that emissions reached its minimum levels. This strategy was adopted in the RHR in 40 CFR 51.309(d)(5)(ii) and (iii). After the RHR was adopted, EPA promulgated several new emission and fuel standards for mobile sources. Emission projections developed by the WRAP demonstrated emissions from mobile sources would decline significantly through the entire planning period from 2003 through 2018, and possibly beyond. Each pollutant was expected to decline except for sulfur dioxide from off-road mobile sources unless pending rule making for fuel standards were promulgated by EPA. Given the significant reduction in emissions, the WRAP determined that the current requirement under 40 CFR 51.309(d)(5)(ii) and (iii) were no longer an effective management tool for mobile sources, and developed proposed changes to the RHR to address emissions from mobile sources. In 2003, the WRAP formally requested that EPA make revisions to the mobile sources section of the Regional Haze Rule (40 CFR 51.309(d)(5)) to reflect changes in emissions due to federal programs developed since the rule was promulgated in 1999. The basis for the WRAP request was EPA's adoption of more stringent national vehicle emission and fuel standard that result in mobile source emissions declining throughout the region during the 2003-2018 planning period covered by plans being submitted in December 2003. EPA proposed changes to 40 CFR 51.309(d)(5) on July 3, 2003 (68 FR 39842 and 68 FR 39888). EPA held a hearing on October 7, 2003, on the proposed change and promulgated the final rule on December 22, 2003 (68 FR 71009).















9















40 CFR Part 51 - Regional Haze Regulations; Proposed Rule, 67 FR 30418, United States Environmental Protection Agency. Government Printing Office: Washington, D.C. May 6, 2002.















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2.















PHYSICAL, DEMOGRAPHIC, AND ECONOMIC DESCRIPTIONS OF ARIZONA















This section of the SIP provides an overview of the physical, demographic and economic characteristics, along with some history of the formation of the state. Appendix A-2a contains a bibliography of sources for the information presented in this chapter.















2.1.















Climate and Physiography















Arizona encompasses nearly 114,000 square miles, ranging in elevation from 70 feet above sea level on the Colorado River at the Arizona-Mexico border, to 12,643 feet in the north at Humphreys Peak just north of Flagstaff. It contains four desert regions and hundreds of mountains, remnants of state's past volcanic activity. Arizona borders states of California and Nevada on the West, Utah on the North, Colorado to the Northeast, New Mexico on the East, and the country of Mexico to the South. Figure 2-1. Class I Areas and Physiography Regions in Arizona















Chapter 2 ? Descriptions of Arizona















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Arizona Regional Haze SIP















Arizona has three main topographical areas: 1) a high plateau in the northeast; 2) a mountainous region oriented southeast to northwest; and 3) low mountain ranges and desert valleys in the southwestern portion of the state. These regions bring a wide range of climate to the state with lows well below zero in the high plateau and mountainous regions of central and northern Arizona, while temperatures can exceed 125?F within the desert areas. Precipitation throughout Arizona is governed by elevation and time of year, with the highest elevations averaging between 25 to 30 inches of precipitation annually. The desert southwest averages as low as three to four inches per year. The average number of days per year with measurable precipitation varies from near 70 days in the north (Flagstaff area) to 15 in the southwest (Yuma area). From November through March, storm systems from the Pacific Ocean cross the state, some bringing blizzard conditions to the high elevations. Summer rainfall begins early in July and usually lasts until midSeptember. The moisture-bearing winds come from either the southwest (Gulf of California) or southeast (Gulf of Mexico), and during a wind shift called, "the North American Monsoon," large thunderstorms can occur in the mountainous regions on down through the central and southeastern portion of the state. Blowing dust prior to onset of rain can occur during these storms. Flash floods can also occur. Approximately 70% of Arizona's land is owned and managed by the federal government and the 21 federally recognized Indian tribes. The state owns nearly 13%, leaving about 18% of the state land is under private ownership. Arizona is host to some of the country's most spectacular and beloved national parks and wilderness areas. Of the 158 national parks and wilderness areas classified as mandatory Class I Federal areas, 12 are located in Arizona (40 CFR 81.403). Four of the 12 Arizona Class I areas are on the Colorado Plateau, the area of study by the GCVTC. A list of all 16 Class I areas that were part of the GCVTC study of Colorado Plateau Class I areas can be found in Chapter 3 of this SIP. Detailed information on Arizona's four Colorado Plateau Class I areas also can also be found in Chapter 3. Figure 2-2 shows Arizona Class I areas.















2.2.















Population















The Arizona Territory was formed in 1863 from the western part of the New Mexico Territory.10 As part of the New Mexico Territory in 1860, "Arizona County" had an 1860 population of 6,482. By 1870, Arizona Territory's population grew to 9,658 with most of the inhabitants living in Pima County. Arizona's population during the 2000 Census had grown to 5,130,632. Arizona has six urbanized areas (i.e., 50,000 people or more), two of which are major urban areas (i.e., 250,000 people or more), and three represent newly qualified areas based on the results of the 2000 Census (see Table 2-1). Two of these urbanized areas, Flagstaff and Prescott, are located in northern Arizona. Flagstaff is in Coconino County near two of the four Class I areas: Grand Canyon National Park and Sycamore Canyon Wilderness.















10















Arizona was the name given to the territory. The town of Arizona actually was located south of the new border in Sonora, Mexico. The old name of the region was `Pimer�Alta.' The Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo in 1848 ended the war between the U.S. and Mexico. The treaty required Mexico to cede hundreds of thousands of square miles of land to the U.S. The geographical areas included western New Mexico, Arizona north of the Gila River, California, Nevada, Utah, as well as parts of Colorado, Wyoming, Kansas, and Oklahoma. Then, in 1853 with the Gadsden Purchase, which added the land south of the Gila River, Arizona formed its present borders.















Chapter 2 ? Descriptions of Arizona















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Figure 2-2. Counties and Class I Areas in Arizona















Table 2-1 Arizona's Urbanized Areas: Census 2000 Urbanized Areas Avondale Flagstaff Phoenix-Mesa Prescott Tucson Arizona County Maricopa Coconino Maricopa Yavapai Pima Population 67,875 57,050 2,907,049 61,909 720,425 94,950















Yuma (AZ-CA) Yuma Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census















Table 2-2 shows Census 2000 county populations as well as 2002 mid-year county population estimates for Arizona. According to these data, the state grew 6.7 percent between 2000 and 2002. The two largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), Phoenix-Mesa and Tucson, grew at 7.3 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively, during these two years. The Phoenix-Mesa MSA includes Maricopa and Pinal Counties. Pinal County was added to the Phoenix-Mesa MSA in 1993.















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Table 2-2 Growth of Arizona's Counties: 2000-2002 County Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham Greenlee La Paz Maricopa* Mohave Navajo Pima (Tucson MSA) Pinal* Santa Cruz Yavapai Yuma Census 2000 (April) 69,423 117,755 116,320 51,335 33,489 8,547 19,715 3,072,149 155,032 97,470 843,746 179,727 38,381 167,517 160,026 2002 Estimate (July) 70,105 124,040 125,420 53,015 34,070 8,605 20,365 3,296,250 166,465 101615 890,545 192,395 39,840 180,260 169,760















State Total 5,130,632 5,472,750 * Part of Phoenix-Mesa Metropolitan Statistical Area Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census; Population Statistics Unit, Research Administration, Department of Economic Security, December 6, 2002. The Phoenix-Mesa MSA ranks 14th among all metropolitan areas by total population for 2000. However, the Phoenix-Mesa MSA is one of the fastest-growing metropolitan areas in the nation. As a county, however, Maricopa County gained the most number of people numerically, ranking it as the fourth largest county in the nation. Table 2-3 portrays population projections for selected areas in Arizona including the PhoenixMesa MSA and Tucson MSA in five-year increments from 2000 to 2020. The county population projections for the four counties where the Arizona Colorado Plateau Class I areas are located and the projected state totals also are included for reference.















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Table 2-3 Population Projections for Selected Arizona MSAs and Counties: 2000-2020 Area Phoenix-MesaScottsdale MSA Tucson MSA Apache County Coconino County Mohave County Navajo County Yavapai County 2000 3,115,787 854,329 67,925 123,329 147,529 88,898 152,966 2005 3,511,048 943,795 72,236 135,595 171,504 94,395 175,693 2010 3,909,281 1,031,623 76,645 147,352 194,403 99,979 198,052 2015 4,317,999 1,119,342 81,173 158,753 215,988 105,843 219,614 2020 4,747,319 1,206,244 85,766 169,343 236,396 111,946 240,849















State Total 4,961,953 5,553,849 6,145,108 6,744,754 7,363,604 Source: Population Statistics Unit, Research Administration, Department of Economic Security (DES), Approved by Director August 1, 1997. According to these projections, the state's population is projected to grow by 48 percent in 20 years. While these are the official population projections for the State, they are under estimates. The 2000 projection is 4.2% below the 2000 official U.S. Census count and the decennial growth rates for 2000 through 2010 and 2010 through 2020 are 20% and 10%, respectively. If the average decennial growth rate of 40 percent from 1960 through 2000 is maintained, Arizona's population in 2010 would almost be equivalent to the 2020 DES population projection. Carrying the 40 percent decennial growth rate forward to 2020 would mean a state population of about 10 million compared to the 7.3 million projected in 2020 by DES.















2.3.















Economy















Arizona's growth in gross state product ranked first in the nation during 1992 through 1999, increasing from $85 billion in 1992 to $140 billion in 1999. Contributing to this growth were high-tech manufacturing industries, wholesale and retail trade, services, and construction industries.11 Manufacturing output averaged 13.2 percent annually during this eight-year time period. The other sectors grew predominantly as the population of the state grew. Table 2-4 shows a time series of civilian non-farm labor force data. The last column shows the annual average growth rate in employment between 1990 and 2001. Total non-farm and private employment grew at rates over 50%. By contrast the minimum decennial growth rate for 1960 through 2000 was 35%. Figure 2-3 shows the change in employment from 1990 through 2001. It should be noted that reliable data for agricultural employment are not available due to large seasonal fluctuations in employment.







11















Based on construction data through the 1990s, it is evident that the single family housing sector was a major force, coupled with the commercial sector, behind the state's construction and real estate industries.















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Table 2-4 Average Number of Non-Farm Employees in Arizona 1990-2001 (10,000s) Year 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2001 Annual Avg. Growth 4.1% 4.0% 3.9%















Goods Services Total Non-Farm















27.33 120.98 148.31















26.22 125.49 151.71















30.35 138.86 169.20















34.69 154.54 189.23















37.30 170.18 207.47















38.78 185.49 224.27















38.48 188.01 226.50















Private 122.41 124.03 139.77 157.44 173.32 187.61 188.72 3.2% Source: Arizona Department of Economic Security in cooperation with U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. * Percent change between 1990 and 2001. Figure 2-3. Non-Farm Employment in Arizona: 1990-2001















Non-Farm Employment In Arizona







1990 - 2001







2500















Total Full-Time Employees in Thousands















2000 1500 1000 500 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2001















Goods















Services















Private (Goods & Svcs)















Table 2-5 contains selected economic indicators forecast for Arizona for 2001 through 2005. All indicators are forecast to increase except for mining, manufacturing, and TCPU. The forecast largest gains are for personal income (27.9%), restaurant and bar sales (26.0%), retail sales (19.8%), food sales (17.9%), and services (16.7%). Chapter 2 ? Descriptions of Arizona - 12 Arizona Regional Haze SIP















Table 2-5 Projected Economic Indicators for Arizona: 2001-2005 Economic Indicator Personal Income ($millions) Retail Sales ($millions) Food Sales ($millions) Restaurant & Bar Sales ($millions) Gasoline Sales ($millions) Total Employment (10,000s) Mining (1,000s) Construction (1,000s) Manufacturing (1,000s) TCPU (1,000s)** Trade (1,000s) FIRE (1,000s)*** Services (1,000s) Government (1,000s) 2001 137,313.5 55,421.2 7,262.7 6,360.6 3,492.3 226.63 9.6 164.9 210.1 110.7 533.2 150.7 711.1 376.4 2002 143,291.1 55,928.2 7,491.3 6,490.3 3,476.4 224.74 8.8 159.4 194.0 105.6 537.2 149.9 707.3 385.3 2003 150,549.4 58,288.5 7,678.3 6,851.4 3,693.4 229.23 8.7 161.6 188.8 105.1 547.8 155.1 736.8 388.6 2004 161,338.3 61,477.6 8,050.4 7,367.4 3,717.5 238.10 8.5 160.8 193.0 107.5 570.8 164.4 783.5 392.7 2005 175,570.2 66,369.8 8,565.3 8,014.0 3,845.0 248.87 8.3 166.6 204.4 110.4 594.9 173.2 829.7 401.2















Unemployment Rate 4.7% 5.7% 5.2% 4.4% 4.1% Source: Economic Outlook 03/04. The University of Arizona. Eller College of Business and Public Administration, Table 3. * Includes bar sales as well ** Transportation, Communication, and Public Utilities *** Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate















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3.















MANDATORY CLASS I FEDERAL AREAS ON THE COLORADO PLATEAU















This chapter describes the 16 Class I areas on the Colorado Plateau studied by the Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission and addressed in this SIP in response to 40 CFR 51.309. Figure 3-1 shows the location of the national parks and wilderness areas addressed by this SIP. Figure 3-1. Colorado Plateau Class I areas















3.1.















Arizona Class I Areas















There are a total of 12 mandatory Class I Federal areas in Arizona. Of the four Arizona Class I areas addressed by this SIP, two, Grand Canyon National Park and Sycamore Canyon Wilderness are located in the northwestern portion of the state. Grand Canyon National Park extends over toward the state's western border with Nevada, and Sycamore Canyon Wilderness Area is located south of Flagstaff. The third Class I area, Petrified Forest National Park, occupies land adjacent to and directly south of the Navajo Reservation. The fourth, Mt. Baldy Wilderness Area, occupies a comparatively small portion of land on the eastern side of the state and is one of the many extinct volcanoes found throughout the state. All four of these Arizona Class I areas are part of a larger formation known as the Colorado Plateau. This high, semi-arid tableland includes, along with northern Arizona, southeast Utah, northwest New Mexico, and western Colorado.















Chapter 3 ? Class I Areas















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Arizona Regional Haze SIP















Figure 3-2. Arizona Class I Areas.















3.1.1.















Grand Canyon National Park















The Grand Canyon National Park is on the southwestern Colorado Plateau. Over time, the Colorado River and its tributaries cut through the many layers of rock that make up the southwestern Colorado Plateau, forming a gorge one-mile deep and several miles wide. This cut into the earth begins at Lees Ferry, below Glen Canyon Dam, and extends 277 miles with a variation in width from 10-18 miles wide to just hundreds of yards in Marble Canyon to the northeast. The western part of the canyon extends into the Mohave Desert, while the eastern part reaches into the Great Basin Desert. The Park, after being designated a national monument in 1908, became a national park on February 26, 1919. The Park is contained within Mohave and Coconino Counties. The Grand Canyon was designated a World Heritage Site in 1979. The Grand Canyon is a spectacular example of weathering and erosion, featuring unmatched vistas and intriguing landforms comprised of irregular-shaped cliffs and valleys caused by differential erosion, buttes, mesas, and rock depositions forming talus cones and aprons. Because of these geological spectacles, the Grand Canyon ranks among the world's greatest attractions with on-going erosion revealing much about the earth's geological history. Every year millons of visitors from all over the world visit the Park.















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Figure 3-3. View From South Rim of The Grand Canyon National Park















Figure 3-4. Map of Grand Canyon National Park Area















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Arizona Regional Haze SIP















3.1.2.















Sycamore Canyon Wilderness















Approximately 40 miles southwest of Flagstaff is the Class I Area known as Sycamore Canyon Wilderness. Designated in 1935 as a Primitive Area, Congress formally established the area as a federally protected area in 1972. It became a Wilderness Area through the 1977 Arizona Wilderness Act. The area, split between Coconino and Yavapai Counties, contains 55,937 acres, beginning with pine and fir forests on the Colorado Plateau through part of the Mogollon Rim, ending at the desert mouth of the Verde Valley. Sycamore Canyon Wilderness, containing beautiful red rock, buttes, and sheer cliffs, is only 15 miles west of Oak Creek Canyon and Sedona area, one of Arizona's most popular tourist destinations. Motorized or mechanized vehicles are not allowed in the area. Figure 3-5. Map of Sycamore Canyon Wilderness Area















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3.1.3.















Petrified Forest National Park















Petrified Forest National Park is located in northeastern Arizona. The Park lies within both Navajo and Apache Counties, covering a total of 93,533 acres. It was designated a national monument in 1906 and a national park in 1962. The southern portion of Petrified Forest National Park contains one of the world's largest concentrations of petrified wood. The northern portion of the Park encompasses the badlands of the Chinle Formation that extends along the Little Colorado River valley to the west for about 125 miles. Known more commonly as "the Painted Desert" with its colored soils ranging from blues and reds to yellows and grays, this area includes at its southern tip, the Rainbow Forest Figure 3-6. Petrified Forest National Park















Figure 3-7. Map of Petrified Forest National Park Area















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3.1.4.















Mt. Baldy Wilderness















Not to be confused with California's Mt. Baldy, located in the San Gabriel Mountains, Mt. Baldy Wilderness, located in Apache County about 90 miles south of the Petrified Forest National Park. Mt. Baldy Wilderness, 7,079 acres, is an ancient volcano and the second highest peak in Arizona. It is located in the White Mountains along the southern edge of the Colorado Plateau. The summit of Mt. Baldy is on the White Mountain Apache Indian Reservation and is closed to all non-tribal members. This SIP is only for the portion of Mt. Baldy under the jurisdiction of the State. Figure 3-8. Map of Mount Baldy Wilderness Area















Four rivers have headwaters on the slopes of Mt. Baldy: the Black, Blue, White, and Little Colorado rivers. Fishing and camping are major recreational activities where 25 lakes are scattered among the mountains. Livestock grazing is common on the meadows and pine forests of the White Mountains. The area has a wide range of weather, with snow at the higher elevations. The same conditions and restrictions that pertain to the Sycamore Canyon Wilderness Area also pertain to Mt. Baldy Wilderness area ? no motorized or mechanized vehicles, no bicycles, and no power equipment is allowed.















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3.2.















Class I Areas Outside Arizona















The four Class I areas on the Colorado Plateau are joined by 12 other Class I areas to make up the total of 16 Class I areas originally examined by the GCVTC. A brief description of each of these 12 areas follows.12 Capitol Reef National Park, Utah ? Capitol Reef received its name from the barrier created by a 100 mile long ridge of rock that was thrust up from the earth millions of years ago. The rock is said to resemble the dome-like structures seen on capitol buildings in Washington, D.C. The park is fairly isolated in the south central part of Utah, 60 miles south of I-70. Bryce Canyon National Park, Utah ? Also in southern Utah, Bryce Canyon represents the effect of centuries of erosion that has shaped the colorful Claron limestones, sandstones, and mudstones of this park into thousands of spires, pinnacles and mazes. The local name for these shapes is "hoodoos," one of which forms a natural amphitheatre along the eastern edge. Zion National Park, Utah ? On the southern edge of the Colorado Plateau, Zion is known for its highly variable weather due to its elevation changes of 3,666 feet at its lowest point in Coalpits Wash to 8,726 feet at its highest, Horse Range Mountain in the Kolob Canyon section. The variable weather an elevations have led to numerous "microenvironments" that range from hanging gardens to isolated mesas. Arches National Park, Utah - Arches National Park contains over two thousand natural sandstone arches, including the famous Delicate Arch. The park, also known for its balanced rocks and pinnacles, is located near Moab, Utah. Protected since 1929, it became a national park in 1971. Canyonlands National Park, Utah ? Canyonlands preserves one of the last, relatively undisturbed areas of the Colorado Plateau. It contains a large portion of the Colorado River and its tributaries, which carve out numerous canyons and gorges. The unique desert ecosystem has been visited by different groups of settlers for over 10,000 years, in concert with available resources. Its national park designation in 1964 is an attempt to maintain its natural beauty while still allowing for continued visitors. Mesa Verde National Park, Colorado ? Spanish for "green table," Mesa Verde allows visitors to experience both cultural and physical influences on the land. From approximately 600 A.D. through 1300 A.D., settlements flourished in stone villages throughout the alcoves of the canyon walls. Twenty-four tribes in the southwest have ancestral affiliation with the sites at Mesa Verde. The park is 35 miles west of Durango in southwestern Colorado, just off US Highway 160. Flattops Wilderness Area, Colorado ? Flattops has a less friendly history than Mesa Verde, witnessing the "Meeker Massacre" of 1879 when federal troops forcibly removed the Ute Indians, who had resided in the area for perhaps thousands of years. Originally destined to become a summer home area, it was instead recommended for wilderness area designation in 1919. In fact, Flattops became the keystone in the establishment of the National Wilderness Preservation System. Maroon Bells Wilderness Area, Colorado ? Maroon Bells, and its neighboring area, Snowmass, see a large amount of visitors every year. There are over 100 miles of trail, and despite peaks that rise above 14,000 feet, people literally swarm throughout the park's over 181,000 acres to enjoy some of the most beautiful views, some say of wildflowers alone, in the country. The park is named not for a flower, but







12















The State of Arizona thanks the USDA and US Park Service for providing information on the national parks and wilderness areas that comprise the Colorado Plateau through its various web sites and literature.















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for Maroon Bells peak, one of the most photographed mountains, especially when it is reflected in Maroon Lake. West Elk Wilderness Area, Colorado ? As busy as Maroon Bells Wilderness Area is with visitors, West Elk is fairly devoid of people. Only hunters populate the area in the fall, when elk and deer number in the thousands. Long lava flows are found throughout the area, where trails can lead to areas containing ridges that the wind and water have carved into formations that resemble the turrets of castles. Black Canyon of the Gunnison Wilderness Area, Colorado ? The Black Canyon of the Gunnison's unique and spectacular landscape was formed slowly by the action of water and rock scouring down through hard Proterozoic crystalline rock. No other canyon in North America combines the narrow opening, sheer walls, and startling depths offered by the Black Canyon of the Gunnison. Weminuche Wilderness Area, Colorado ? Weminuche is Colorado's largest wilderness area. It contains 63 high altitude lakes, known for their deep blue color. The area encompasses a total of 488,210 acres that include the headwaters of both the Rio Grande and San Juan Rivers. The area also contains the Continental Divide Trail and is said to exemplify the mission of the Wilderness Act of 1964 by securing the benefits of an enduring resource of wilderness for generations to come. San Pedro Parks Wilderness Area, New Mexico ? This area, at the same latitude as the Grand Canyon National Park where the Colorado Plateau dips into New Mexico and Arizona, has an elevation of 10,000 feet above sea level. But unlike its counterpart in Arizona, the area has rolling mountaintops and meadows with large grassy areas. The area sees frequent rain in late summer and snow by November. Its mountain streams are a favorite of local trout anglers.















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4.















TECHNICAL BASIS FOR REGULATION OF REGIONAL HAZE















This chapter provides a brief introduction to the science of visibility and the technical basis for the regulation of regional haze. A more detailed presentation of the concepts contained in this chapter can be found in the 1999 document entitled Introduction to Visibility by William C. Malm, Ph.D., available from CIRA (Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere) at Colorado State University.















4.1.















How Do We See?















Light waves, like radio waves, are a form of electromagnetic radiation. All electromagnetic radiation travels in the form of waves at the speed of light which is approximately 186,000 miles per second. Light waves, like radio waves, also have distinct frequencies (the number of times per second the wave goes from crest to crest) and a corresponding wave length (the distance between the crest of each wave). As an example, when you tune your radio to 550 on the AM dial, your radio receives a signal that has a frequency of 550 thousand cycles per second with a corresponding wave length of approximately 1,800 feet (six football fields). In contrast, blue light has a frequency of about 3.5 trillion cycles per second corresponding wave length of 1.5 millionths of an foot. Unlike radio waves that require humans to use a radio receiver to capture information, the human eye directly captures information contained in light waves. Light waves are made up of small energy packets, or photons, that travel through the air. Light photons each have a defined energy level that give them a distinct color corresponding to its frequency or wave length. Red light waves are at the lowest energy level and the longest wavelength. Blue light waves are at the higher energy level and shorter wavelength. White light, like sunlight, is made up of a mixture of all of the different wave lengths of light. When white sunlight goes through a prism, or through rain drops, the photons can be separated by energy level and generate a rainbow of colors. The human eye is a sophisticated receiver of electromagnetic radiation in the form of light. Unlike a radio receiver that can only detect and interpret one frequency at a time, the human eye can detect all frequencies, or wavelengths, of visible light simultaneously. The human eye can distinguish a wide variety of colors and light intensities of objects. In order to distinguish an object from its background, there must be a contrast between the object and its background. The contrast necessary to distinguish an object from its background varies depending on color and texture, but generally, a 2% contrast is necessary in order to be detected by the human eye. When sunlight hits a solid object, the surface absorbs some photons and reflect others. The wavelength of the light reflected defines the color that the human eye perceives. For example, the reason an apple looks red is that red photons are mostly reflected, and photons in the other color wavelengths are mostly absorbed. An egg looks white because the surface absorbs and reflects all of the color components of light at about the same level. Sunlight reflected from surfaces on the earth, or scattered by particles and gases in the air, interfere with the view that would be experienced under ideal conditions. Gases and very small particles preferentially scatter blue light in all directions. Large particles tend to scatter all colors of light (white light) in the forward direction. This causes a very strong white haze to appear to the eye when looking toward the sun, and much lighter haze when looking away from the sun.















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4.2.















How Particulates and Gases Impair Visibility















As light photons travel through the air, they collide with molecules of gases and particles. This collision results in the light photons either being scattered or absorbed. When sunlight travels through clear air (i.e., with no particles), light photons corresponding with the higher energy level blue wavelengths of light are preferentially scattered, resulting in the human eye perceiving the sky as being blue, even though air is a colorless gas. Figure 4-1 shows how particles and gases interact with light. Figure 4-1. Interaction of Particles and Gases with Light.















There is a limit to how far the eye can see. That limit is defined by the rate at which light is extinguished (scattered or absorbed) as it travels through the air. The light extinction coefficient defines the rate at which light is removed as it travels through the air. In clear air (i.e., with no particles in the air), that limit is approximately 350 kilometers and results from Rayleigh scattering caused by light encountering molecules of oxygen and nitrogen in clear air. This corresponds to a light extinction coefficient of approximately 10 inverse mega-meters (10 Mm-1). Particles in the air, which are also referred to as aerosols, also interfere with light as it travels, especially particles that are approximately the same size as the wavelength of light. As light travels, light photons will be scattered and absorbed by particles in the air. A higher concentration of particles in the air will result in a higher light extinction coefficient and more visibility impairment. Different types of particles have different effects on visibility. For visibility studies, concentrations of particles in the air are expressed in millionths of grams (micrograms) per cubic meter of air. Filters are used to collect the particles for laboratory analysis. The equipment used to collect the Chapter 4 ? Technical Background - 24 Arizona Regional Haze SIP















filters separate the particles by size. Some filters only collect fine particles that are smaller than 2.5 microns in diameter, while others collect both fine particles and courser particles smaller than 10 microns in diameter. Light extinction efficiencies are used to convert the concentration of particles in the air into the impact on the light extinction coefficient. As was noted above, smaller particles are more efficient at scattering light than larger particles.















4.3.















Types of Particles and Gases Contributing to Visibility Impairment















There are two distinct categories of particles in the air: primary particulates that are directly emitted into the air, and secondary particulates that are formed by the chemical reaction of gases emitted into the air. Primary particulates include course soils, fine soils, elemental carbon (soot), and organic carbon. Secondary particulates include ammonium sulfate formed from gaseous sulfur dioxide, ammonium nitrate formed from gaseous oxides of nitrogen, and also organic carbon particles formed from volatile organic carbon gases. An additional factor that effects visibility is that ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate particles also can absorb moisture in the air causing the particles to grow, which increases light extinction. For regional haze visibility assessment studies, Table 4-1 summarizes the particles of interest, light extinction efficiencies, and the effect of relative humidity on the extinction efficiencies for ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate particles. Table 4-1. Light Extinction Efficiencies of Particles Type of Particle Relative Humidity Humidity Dependent Ammonium Sulfate Ammonium Nitrate Humidity Independent Organic Carbon Elemental Carbon Fine Soil Coarse Soil Light Extinction Efficiency & Effect of Relative Humidity (RH) 30% RH 60% RH 90% RH 3.0 3.0 4.0 10.0 1.0 0.6 4.8 4.8 4.0 10.0 1.0 0.6 11.4 11.4 4.0 10.0 1.0 0.6















Source: EPA Visibility Monitoring Guidance EPA-454/R-99-003. Humidity effects derived from Figure 2-3. Light Extinction Efficiencies are expressed in units of square-meters per gram.















The key concepts to understand from Table 4-1 are: ? The extinction efficiency varies widely depending on the type of particle. For instance, elemental carbon, which not only scatters light but also absorbs light has 16.7 times the influence on visibility than coarse soil. ? Relative humidity is important if ammonium sulfates or ammonium nitrates are present. At high relative humidity the extinction efficiency can be a factor of 4 higher than under low relative humidity. ? Understanding of the composition of the particles present in the atmosphere is necessary to accurately characterize the impact on visibility.















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4.4.















Sources of Particulates and Gases Contributing to Visibility Impairment on the Colorado Plateau















Sources of emissions that contribute to the particles in the atmosphere that cause visibility impairment fall into two broad classes: natural sources of emissions, and human-caused (or anthropogenic) sources of emissions. The GCVTC developed comprehensive emission inventories for areas contributing to visibility impairment at the 16 GCVTC Class I areas on the Colorado Plateau. Natural sources of emissions include a wide variety of pollutants that are emitted to the atmosphere. Wildfire emissions include primarily fine particulates (organic carbon, elemental carbon, and fine soils), course soils, oxides of nitrogen, and volatile organic compounds. Volcanic activity produces fine and course soils, and in many instances, sulfur dioxide. High winds can create emissions from natural undisturbed lands that contain primarily coarse and some fine soils. Achieving visibility conditions comparable to those that would be experienced with only natural sources is the long-term goal of the regional haze program. Human-caused sources of emissions also contribute to visibility impairment. Point sources (such as utility boilers, smelters, industrial boilers, and refineries) produce the majority of the sulfur dioxide in the GCVTC region, and about 25% of the oxides of nitrogen. Mobile sources (such as cars, trucks, offroad equipment, trains, and planes), produce the majority of the oxides of nitrogen in the GCVTC region and half of the human-caused volatile organic carbon emissions. In addition to direct emissions from mobile sources, road dust can be an important source of course and fine soil emissions. Prescribed fire on wildlands produce emissions similar to natural occurring wildfires. Finally, area sources (which make up all the other source types not discussed above) generate a broad range of emissions of all pollutants of interest for visibility and can be important especially in large population centers. States are required to develop long-term strategies to manage human-caused sources of visibility impairment to make reasonable progress toward the national goal of eliminating human-caused visibility impairment.















4.5.















Visibility Conditions on the Colorado Plateau















The Colorado Plateau generally has the best visibility conditions in the country. Unlike the eastern United States where ammonium sulfates are the most significant contributor to visibility impairment, there is no one type of particle that is the most significant contributor on the Colorado Plateau. The GCVTC found that particle based visibility impairment results equally from ammonium sulfates, the combination of organic carbon and elemental carbon, and the combination of coarse and fine soils. The GCVTC found that ammonium nitrate is a relatively small contributor to visibility impairment on the Colorado Plateau. On a day-to-day basis there can be one type of particle that has a more pronounced impact on visibility than others. However, all sources of these types of particles must be reviewed to develop an effective long-term strategy to make reasonable progress toward the national goal.















4.6.















State of Arizona Visibility Monitoring Plan and Network















The Arizona Department of Environmental Quality (ADEQ), local agencies, and federal land managers at Arizona's 12 Class I areas are cooperatively operating a visibility monitoring network to track impairment of visual air quality. The Arizona Class I visibility network consists of visibility monitoring equipment provided by the Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) monitoring program and additional equipment provided by ADEQ. The IMPROVE aerosol samplers collect particulate matter on filters (both PM2.5 and PM10 fractions) which are routinely analyzed for chemical constituents. ADEQ and the National Park Service (NPS) have added optical monitoring equipment to measure visibility impairment, and meteorological monitoring equipment at most sites.















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Arizona maintains a visibility monitoring operation plan. This visibility monitoring plan is updated when necessary to reflect updated IMPROVE and EPA guidance, and specific needs identified by ADEQ. ADEQ is an Associate Member of the IMPROVE Steering Committee and participates in the technical oversight of the IMPROVE network. The chemical constituent data from the IMPROVE samplers are used to identify the chemical species and emission sources responsible for existing human-caused visibility impairment. The optical data show the visual air quality at a point as a person might experience the view. Nephelometers measure light scattering by particles at points collocated with the IMPROVE samplers, and at four areas, transmissometers also provide optical data on total light extinction along a path. Meteorological data are collected to provide a more complete understanding of the behavior of the atmosphere in general, as well as clarifying local air movement. These data are collectively used to track short-term and long-term trends, assess source contributions to visibility impairment that are reasonably attributable to a single source or group of sources, and determine the causes of regional visibility impairment at a given location. The intent of this visibility monitoring operational plan is to characterize long-term trends in all Arizona Class I areas as completely as possible using ambient visibility measurements, within constraints of an area's size, terrain, or logistics, for each of the 12 federally-protected Class I areas in Arizona. In practical terms, one monitoring site or a group of sites may represent several Class I areas, or multiple locations of the same or different types of sites may represent an individual Class I area. This monitoring plan is designed to meet the following requirements of 40 CFR 51.305 and 40 CFR 51.308(d)(4): 1) to have a long-term monitoring strategy; 2) to track visibility trends at Arizona Class I areas; 3) to assist in identifying any attributable visibility impairment; and 4) to provide monitoring data, if necessary, for evaluating the impact of new or major modifications of categorical major sources. Arizona's monitoring program began in the spring of 1996, and the monitoring plan was updated in 2002. In addition to the state-sponsored IMPROVE monitoring, the National Park Service has maintained IMPROVE monitors (transmissometer and particle samplers) in Petrified Forest and Grand Canyon national parks since 1987, providing a long baseline of visibility measurements. Pursuant to 40 CFR 51.305 and 40 CFR 51.308(d)(4), the State of Arizona maintains a monitoring plan to address visibility impairment. The State of Arizona relies on the IMPROVE program for data collection and processing and commits to the reporting of all visibility monitoring data to the Administrator at least annually for each Class I area in the State.















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5.















STRATEGY TO ADDRESS REASONABLY ATTRIBUTABLE VISIBILITY IMPAIRMENT (RAVI)















Section 169A of the CAA contains the national goal that requires states to remedy existing visibility impairment and prevent future visibility impairment in the Class I areas. Initially, states containing mandatory Class I Federal areas were required to address the specific type of air pollution coming from existing stationary sources that could be anticipated to cause or contribute to visibility impairment. This type of pollution was commonly referred to as "plume blight," or more formally, reasonably attributable visibility impairment (RAVI). On December 2, 1980, the EPA determined that there were two types of air pollution that reduced or impaired visibility (45 FR 80084). One type was described as "smoke, dust, colored gas plumes, or layered haze emitted from stacks," and the second type was "widespread, regionally homogeneous haze from a multitude of sources" (Ibid, p. 80085). The existing stationary sources subject to this regulation include any reconstructed source that was not in operation prior to August 7, 1962, and was in existence on August 7, 1977, and has the potential to emit 250 tons per year of any regulated pollutant. "In existence" is interpreted by the EPA to be consistent with the term, "commence construction" found in Prevention of Serious Deterioration (PSD) regulations (40 CFR 51.165(a)(1)(xvi) and 40 CFR 52.21(b)(9)). If construction commenced after August 7, 1977, the source would be subject to the PSD/NSR (new source review) program. The SIPs developed to address visibility impairment from sources that could be reasonably anticipated to cause or contribute to visibility impairment in Class I areas had to include four specific things: (1) a monitoring plan to assist in the determination of what type of emissions were actually occurring in and near the Class I Area; (2) a way to determine what type of technological controls (best available retrofit technology or BART) could be used at a source should that source be found to cause or contribute ? be found attributable ? for the air pollution; (3) a process for addressing possible visibility impairment from new sources through existing New Source Review regulations, including review of that process by the FLMs; and (4) long-term strategies for dealing with existing and any future visibility impairment from stationary sources. SIPs for 36 states were due to EPA by December 2, 1980. Unable to comply by the deadline, Arizona along with several other states, was cited on July 12, 1985, as failing to meet the requirements of 40 CFR 51.305, monitoring, and 51.307, new source review (50 FR 28545). On November 24, 1987, Arizona was cited as failing to meet the requirements of 40 CFR 51.306, long-term strategies, and 51.302, control strategies (i.e., BART).13 Failure to meet the requirements in 40 CFR 51.302, 305, 306, and 307 through a SIP meant EPA imposed a Federal Implementation Plan or FIP (52 FR 45134, November 24, 1987). Included in the 1987 FIP was FLM certification of three Class I areas in Arizona for visibility impairment: Grand Canyon National Park, Petrified Forest National Park, and Saguaro Wilderness. On September 15, 1988, EPA published its assessment of the Class I areas certified by the FLMs that included an assessment of the three Arizona areas named in 1987 (53 FR 35956). By 1991, EPA published a final rule that revised Arizona's FIP to reflect an analysis of the visibility impairment at Grand Canyon National Park for an attributable stationary source, Navajo Generating Station (56 FR 50172). For the purpose of addressing the process the State of Arizona could use in the event of future certifications, a State rule has been promulgated for reasonably attributable visibility impairment. That







13















Arizona was not cited for failure to meeting 51.304, integral vistas, as no integral vistas have been listed in Arizona. Integral vistas are areas outside the boundary of a Class I Area, but visible from within it.















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rule, effective December 2, 2003, can be found in Appendix A-5a. The following sections discuss how Arizona is now meeting the requirements of 40 CFR 51.302 through 307, which should allow EPA to remove the existing FIP.















5.1.















Implementation of Control Strategies















Pursuant to 40 CFR 51.302, states must have a procedure in place to analyze and, if necessary, implement control strategies for RAVI, and imposition of best available retrofit technology (BART) for any eligible source whose emissions are found to cause or contribute to visibility impairment. Arizona's RAVI rule can be found in Appendix A-5a; a list of the BART-eligible sources is listed in Section 1601 of the rule. Arizona's RAVI rule also serves as the authority for the possible implementation of controls under "geographical enhancement" for any stationary source found to impair visibility via the WEB Trading Program as outlined in Chapter 8 of this SIP. 40 CFR 51.302 also requires the state to communicate with the FLMs and provide for consultation on any matters pertaining to visibility impairment. A letter notifying the FLMS of the State of Arizona's visibility contact person, as well as the opportunity to review this SIP prior to any public hearings, can be found in Appendix A-5b. A subsequent letter notifying the FLMs of the public comment period, and locations and dates of public hearings for this SIP can also be found in Appendix A-5b. All supporting documents related to the promulgation of Arizona's RAVI rule can also be found in Appendix A-5c.















5.2.















Exemptions from Controls















Pursuant to 40 CFR 51.303, any source found attributable for visibility impairment and required to install and operate BART, may request a federal exemption from BART. This federal exemption process is incorporated by reference in R18-2-1606 of Arizona's RAVI rule. At this time, no source in the State of Arizona has requested a federal exemption from BART.















5.3.















Identification of Integral Vistas















Pursuant to 40 CFR 51.304, any identified integral vista must be addressed on an equivalent basis as for any Class I Area. An integral vista is a specific landmark or panorama located outside the boundary of a mandatory Federal Class I Area, but visible from that Class I Area. Therefore, any impairment within the Class I Area could possibly impact the integral vista as well. No integral vistas have been identified to date for the State of Arizona's 12 mandatory Class I Federal areas (52 FR 45132, November 24, 1987).















5.4.















Monitoring















Pursuant to 40 CFR 51.305, the State of Arizona has developed a monitoring plan for the 12 Class I areas. The plan, Arizona Class I Area Visibility Monitoring Operational Plan (Monitoring Plan), published in 1996 and updated in 2002, includes a commitment to, "characterize long-term trends in all Arizona Class I areas as completely as possible using ambient visibility measurements, within constraints of an area's size, terrain, or logistics, for each of the 12 Class I areas in Arizona" (p. 3 Monitoring Plan). Arizona's Monitoring Plan was developed with the full cooperation of the FLMs, other related agencies and counties as well as air quality specialists in the field of monitoring, data gathering and assessment, and meteorology. The Monitoring Plan is reviewed annually and contains four objectives that also serve to meeting the needs of any visibility regulations promulgated by the State of Arizona to meet RAVI. The objectives are: (1) long-term monitoring strategy, (2) track visibility trends at Arizona















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Class I areas, (3) assist in identifying any reasonably attributable visibility impairment impacts, and (4) provide monitoring data if necessary for new or major modifications of categorical major sources. Along with providing a network of visibility monitors, the Monitoring Plan also accounts for the long-standing IMPROVE monitoring program and integration with EPA's PM 2.5 monitoring guidance. IMPROVE was established in 1985 to coordinate the monitoring of national parks and wilderness areas and to ensure sound and consistent scientific methods were being employed. The IMPROVE Steering Committee established monitoring protocols for visibility measurement, particulate matter measurement, and scientific photography of the Class I areas. IMPROVE monitoring is designed to established reference information on visibility conditions and trends to aid in the development of visibility protection programs.















5.5.















Long-term Strategy Requirements















Pursuant to 40 CFR 51.306, a long-term strategy for RAVI must be established in the SIP. This strategy must cover a 10-15 year period. Arizona's submittal under 40 CFR 51.309 fulfills the long-term strategy requirements for RAVI for stationary sources. Should any source be found attributable for visibility impairment and subsequently required to install and operate BART, the State of Arizona commits to submitting a SIP revision (as required by R18-2-1605(B)), meeting the review requirements for the long-term strategies as outlined in 51.306(e), including any impact resulting from the imposition of controls or exemption from controls for BART.















5.6.















New Source Review for Visibility Protection















Pursuant to 51.307, the State of Arizona's R18-2-410 (Article 4, New Source Review, Arizona Administrative Code) addresses the requirements of new sources to meet performance standards to assure emissions will not have an impact on visibility in Arizona's 12 Class I areas. The rule can be found in Appendix A-5d. On September 1, 1994, EPA deemed the State of Arizona SIP revision for New Source Review (NSR) / Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) and minor NSR source programs complete and is awaiting further EPA action.















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6.







6.1.















LONG-TERM STRATEGY FOR THE CLEAN AIR CORRIDOR







Regulatory History and Requirements















One of the requirements of the Regional Haze Rule (40 CFR 51.309(d)(3)) is to finalize earlier work initiated by the GCVTC to address clean-air corridors. One of the tasks of the GCVTC required by CAA 169B was to determine whether any clean-air corridors exist for any of the 16 GCVTC Class I areas. A clean-air corridor is a geographic region that contributes clean air to a Class I area on the days with best visibility. If clean-air corridor(s) were found to exist, the GCVTC was required to recommend whether additional control strategies were needed to manage emissions growth to protect visibility on the least impaired days in the Class I areas. For the purpose of its assessment, the GCVTC considered the average of the days representing the 20% best visibility conditions to be the least impaired days. EPA also used this definition in defining the term in the 1999 Regional Haze Rule (40 CFR 51.308 and 40 CFR 51.309). In 1995, the GCVTC Meteorology Subcommittee completed an analysis of the geographical source areas contributing to least impaired days in the 16 GCVTC Class I areas. The analysis, in a report entitled, Clean-Air Corridors: A Framework for Identifying Regions that Influence Clean Air on the Colorado Plateau,14 showed that the area north and west of the Grand Canyon National Park does provide clean air to the Grand Canyon area primarily due to a combination of favorable meteorological conditions and low emissions of pollutants from the sparsely populated area. The GCVTC Public Advisory Committee (PAC) reviewed the clean-air corridor analysis and emission projections and determined expected emissions growth was less than the amount that would degrade visibility on the least impaired days in the 16 Class I areas. Based on this finding, the PAC recommended emissions growth be monitored in the future but that no additional control strategies were needed in the identified clean-air corridor at that time. The GCVTC adopted this recommendation and included it in its final report to EPA, which was integrated into the regional haze rule (40 CFR 51.309(d)(3)). The Regional Haze Rule requires states submitting SIPs under 40 CFR 51.309 to determine if there were additional areas(s) to be considered as clean-air corridors for emission tracking purposes in the GCVTC areas. The successor to the GCVTC, the Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP), completed an economic/technical analysis to validate the growth projections in the clean air corridors. This analysis was included as part of a consensus policy adopted by the WRAP Board in November, 2002. A copy of this policy, WRAP Policy on Clean Air Corridors, is contained in Appendix A-6a. The WRAP policy defined a clean air corridor consistent with the range of optional clean air corridor definitions identified by the GCVTC Meteorology Subcommittee. The final clean air corridor included a recognition of county-level emissions inventory practices, and an emissions tracking requirement in the clean air corridor. The technical studies and findings used as the basis for the WRAP Clean-Air Corridor Policy are located in Chapter 3 of the WRAP Technical Support Document. The most recent projections of visibility conditions at the 16 GCVTC Class I areas performed by WRAP is discussed in Chapter 14.















14















Clean Air Corridors: Framework for Identifying Regions that Influence Clean Air on the Colorado Plateau, Meteorology Subcommittee of the Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission; Western Governors' Association: Denver, CO, July 1995.















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6.2.















Identification of Clean Air Corridor; Other Clean Air Corridors















Pursuant to 40 CFR 51.309(d)(3)(i), the State of Arizona concurs that there is an existing cleanair corridor as defined in the WRAP Policy on Clean-Air Corridors. The boundary of the clean-air corridor is indicated on the map in Figure 6-1 provided below. No portion of Arizona is inside the clean-air corridor. Figure 6-1. Map of the Clean Air Corridor in the Transport Region















This Clean Air Corridor was identified using studies conducted by the Meteorological Subcommittee of the Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission, and then updated by the WRAP based on an assessment described in the WRAP Policy on Clean-Air Corridors, and related technical analysis conducted by the WRAP. The State of Arizona, pursuant to 40 CFR 51.309(d)(3)(v), has determined, based on the WRAP Policy on Clean-Air Corridors and technical analysis, that no other clean-air corridors are identified at this time. The State of Arizona commits to participating in a regional effort to review this determination as part of periodic plan revisions required under 40 CFR 51.309(d)(10).















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6.3.















Strategy for Clean Air Corridors















(a) Comprehensive emissions tracking program. Pursuant to 40 CFR 51.309(d)(3), a comprehensive emissions tracking system has been established to track emissions inside and outside the clean-air corridor, as specified in (b) below, to ensure that visibility is not degraded on the least-impaired days in any of the 16 Class I areas of the Colorado Plateau. This comprehensive emissions tracking system was developed by the WRAP to assist the above states in meeting this requirement. Appendix A6b of this SIP describes the WRAP comprehensive emissions tracking system, and the process by which the WRAP will summarize annual emission trends in order to identify any significant emissions growth that could lead to visibility degradation in the 16 Class I areas. Included in this summary will be an assessment of whether any significant emissions growth has occurred within the Clean Air Corridor, in accordance with (c) below. The State of Arizona will work cooperatively with states not submitting a plan revision under 40 CFR 51.309 that have emissions within or outside the clean-air corridor that could affect air quality in the clean-air corridor, to assure the emissions are incorporated into the tracking program through inter-state consultation. (b) Patterns of growth within the clean-air corridor. Pursuant to 40 CFR 51.309(d)(3)(ii), the State of Arizona has determined, based on the WRAP Policy on Clean-Air Corridors and WRAP technical analysis, that current projections of emissions changes inside the identified clean-air corridor will not contribute to degradation of visibility on the least impaired days in the 16 Class I areas during the planning period through 2018. Future emissions growth will be tracked in accordance with the comprehensive emissions tracking system noted in (a) above. The WRAP will summarize annual emission trends within the clean-air corridor and assess whether any significant emission growth has occurred within the corridor as an analysis tool for states. (c) Patterns of growth outside the Clean Air Corridor. Pursuant to 40 CFR 51.309(d)(3)(iii), the State of Arizona has determined, based on the WRAP Policy on Clean-Air Corridors and technical analysis conducted by the WRAP, that outside the Clean Air Corridor identified in Section 6.2, above, there is no emissions growth occurring at this time that is contributing to visibility impairment within the Clean Air Corridor in any of the 16 Class I areas of the Colorado Plateau As part of the WRAP's annual summary of emission trends within the corridor, an assessment will be made of emission and monitoring data trends outside the Clean Air Corridor, in order to determine if significant emissions growth is occurring outside the corridor that could be impairing air quality within the corridor, and resulting in visibility impairment in the 16 Class I areas. (d) Actions if impairment inside or outside the Clean Air Corridor occurs. The State of Arizona, in coordination with other transport region states and tribes, will review the WRAP's annual summary of emission trends within the Clear Air Corridor and whether any significant emissions growth was identified within the corridor in accordance with (b) above, or was identified outside the corridor, in accordance with (c) above. If significant emissions growth is identified, the State of Arizona in coordination with other transport region states and tribes, will conduct or seek WRAP assistance in conducting an analysis of the effects of this emissions growth in terms of possible impact on air quality within the corridor and possible degradation of the least-impaired days in any of the 16 Class I areas of the Colorado Plateau. Pursuant to 40 CFR 51.309(d)(3)(iv), if this analysis finds that this growth is causing visibility impairment in the 16 Class I areas, the State of Arizona in coordination with other transport states and tribes will evaluate the need for additional emission reduction measures, and identify an implementation schedule for such measures, if needed. The implementation of any additional emission measures shall be coordinated with all appropriate transport region states and tribes, on a mutually agreed upon timetable, and reported to EPA in accordance with the periodic progress reports required under 40 CFR 51.309(d)(10)(i). If the WRAP regional planning process is unable to perform such an analysis for















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the GCVTC Class I areas in Arizona, or come to a consensus on the interpretation of such an analysis, the State of Arizona will perform such studies and engage in independent interstate consultation provided for under 40 CFR 51.309(d)(11).















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7.







7.1.















LONG-TERM STRATEGY FOR STATIONARY SOURCES







Regulatory History and Requirements















The Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission (GCVTC) studied the long-term projected changes of emissions from stationary sources. It was found that emissions of sulfur dioxide from stationary sources would decline by at least 13% between 1990 and 2000. Also, emissions of sulfur dioxide would continue to decline through 2040 when only 30% to 50% of the 1990 emission levels would remain. This decline was due to the normal turnover of source technology as older sources retire and are replaced by newer and cleaner technologies. The GCVTC decided that the most effective way to address emissions of sulfur dioxide from stationary sources was to establish regional emission milestones and provide for a backstop program to achieve necessary emission reductions. If the emission reduction milestones are not achieved, then a backstop market trading program will be implemented. In Section 309(d)(4)(ii-iv) of the Regional Haze Rule, EPA required the states to complete the development of a backstop market trading program for sulfur dioxide. The WRAP submitted the Annex to EPA in October 2000.15 On June 5, 2003, EPA approved the program (68 FR 33764). Chapter 8 of this SIP contains the regional Sulfur Dioxide Milestones and Backstop Trading Program as required under Section 309(h) of the June 5, 2003, revised Regional Haze Rule. To keep the actual program as detailed in Chapter 8 intact, what follows here is a summary of the major elements of the program. ? Regional milestones, SO2 emissions tracking requirements, and methodology the State of Arizona would use to determine allocations and manage the allowance tracking system should the program be "triggered" by the violation of any of the milestones as shown in Figure 7-1. Figure 7-1. Regional Sulfur Dioxide Emission Milestones















S O 2 M ile s to n e s







90 0







GCV TC Region Total Annual S O2 of Tons (000)















831 723 720 6 82 715 655 677 625 510 480















80 0 70 0 60 0 50 0 40 0 30 0 20 0 10 0 0















1 3 % R e d u c t io n















5 2 % R e d u c t io n















1 99 0















2000















2010







w / S m e lt e r S e t - a s id e















2020







w / o S m e lt e r s















2030















2040















15















Western Regional Air Partnership. Voluntary Emissions Reduction Program for Major Industrial Sources of Sulfur Dioxide in Nine Western States and a Backstop Market Trading Program, An Annex to the Report of the Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission. Denver, CO. September 29, 2000.















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Arizona Regional Haze SIP















?















Description of the regulatory authority for the SO2 Milestones and Backstop Trading Program. The Western Backstop SO2 Trading Program Rule establishes the procedures and compliance requirements for the participating states, tribes, and affected sources. Appendix A-7a contains the State of Arizona's draft rule based on the Western Backstop SO2 Trading Program Model Rule. This draft rule also contains requirements for participating sources under the pre-trigger portion of the program found in Section 8.2.1 of the SO2 Milestones and Backstop Trading Program. The State of Arizona commits to the promulgation of a State rule for the Western Backstop SO2 Trading Program as expeditiously as practicable. Authority to require major industrial sources of SO2 to submit an annual emissions inventory in the pre-trigger phase of the program to measure compliance with the regional SO2 milestones. The authority for Arizona to require sources to meet this requirement of Section 8.2.1 of the SO2 Milestones and Backstop Trading Program is contained in the draft rule in Appendix A-7a. Again, the State of Arizona commits to the promulgation of a State rule for the Western Backstop SO2 Trading Program as expeditiously as practicable. Establishment of a WRAP standing committee to develop the coordination procedures for the program. This "309 Coordinating Committee" will be formally proposed at the WRAP Board Meeting to be held in October 2003. Appendix A-7b contains the proposal approved by the WRAP Board on October 15, 2003 for the establishment of the WRAP 309 Coordinating Committee.















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7.2.















Monitoring and Reporting of Stationary Source Sulfur Dioxide Emissions.















Achievement of Greater Than a 13% Reduction in Sulfur Dioxide by 2000. One item that must be included in the first SIP under Section 309(d)(4)(i) is monitoring and reporting of stationary source sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions. This monitoring and reporting data must be sufficient to determine whether a 13 % reduction in actual stationary source SO2 emissions has occurred between the years 1990 and 2000, and whether milestones required by Section 51.309(d)(4)(ii) have been achieved for the transport region. As shown in Table 7-1, regional SO2 emission totals show that there has been a 25 percent reduction in these emissions from 1990 to 2000.16 Details of the source of emission inventories used for this calculation are in the Chapter 4 of the WRAP TSD.















Table 7-1. State-by-State Comparison of 1990 and 2000 Stationary Source Sulfur Dioxide Emissions in the 9 GCVTC Transport Region States (tons per year)







States Arizona California Colorado Idaho Nevada New Mexico Oregon Utah Wyoming Totals







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1990 185,398 52,832 95,534 24,652 52,775 177,994 17,705 85,567 136,318 828,775















2000 99,133 38,501 99,161 27,763 53,943 117,344 23,362 38,521 124,110 621,838















7.3.















Year 2000 Point Source SO2 Emissions Analysis - 9 State Western Region Report, E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc. for the Western Governors' Association; Denver, CO, May 2002.















Chapter 7 ? Stationary Sources















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Arizona Regional Haze SIP















Report on Assessment of NOx/PM Strategies







Provisions for Stationary Source NOX and PM. Pursuant to 40 CFR 51.309(d)(4)(v), the State of Arizona has included in this SIP a report which assesses emissions control strategies for stationary sources of NOx and PM, and the degree of visibility improvement that would result from implementation of the identified strategies. The report, Stationary Source NOx and PM Emissions in the WRAP Region: An Initial Assessment of Emissions, Controls, and Air Quality Impacts, was prepared by the WRAP and is included in Appendix A-7c. The report represents the State of Arizona's initial assessment of stationary source NOx and PM strategie