Report to the Twenty-fourth Legislature, first regular session.

              STATE



OF -



ARIZONA



REPORT O THE F

JUNIOR C L E E S R E C M I T Z O L G U V Y O MT E



T E TWENTY-FOURTH LEGISLAm H FIRST FEGULAR SESSION



"AN A T Relating t o Education; Creating a Junior C College Survey Committee t o Make A Survey of Junior Colleges and Related Programs f o r the S t a t e of Arizona; Providing f o r the Appointment of a Director of t h e Survey and Other Employees and Fixing Their Compensation, and Making an Appropriation. " (H .B No. 238, 23rd Legislature, 2nd Regular ~es s ion)



.



Phoenix, Arizona December, 1958



T E JUNIOR COLLEGE S R E C M m E H UVY O M TE



Robert W. Prochnow, Chairman S t a t e Senate Paul E. Guitteau, Vice-chairman Eastern Arizona Junior College



F l a g s t a f f , Ariz Thatcher,



. Ariz .



A. B. Schellenberg, Exec. Secretary House of Representatives

Neilson Brown S t a t e Senate

V. W. Gillenwater



Phoenix, Ariz. Nogales, Ariz. F l a g s t a f f , Ariz Phoenix, Ariz



Arizona S t a t e College Robert 3 . Hannelly Phoenix Junior College Thos. M. m o l e s , Jr. House of Repre sent a t ive s H. D. Richardson Arizona S t a t e University Francis A. Roy University of Arizona

A. R. Spikes S t a t e Senate



.



.



F l a g s t a f f , Ariz. Tempe, Ariz. Tucson, Ariz. Douglas, Arizona Phoenix, Arizona Casa Grande, Ariz. Sacraento, C a l i f .



John L. Tanner Assn. of Secondary School P r i n c i p a l s E. B. Thode House of Representatives Frank B. Lindsay, Director



JUNIOR COLIEGE SURVEY COrnITTEE



Phoenix, Arizona December, 1958



!



TO THE PEMBERS O T E T E u YF U T ARIZONA LEGISLATURE: F H W PT - O R H



The report of t h e Junior College Survey Committee i s submitted herewith. Your committee held i t s organization meeting on March 27, 1958. After corresponcience and personal interviews with a number of qualified persons the committee engaged Frank B. Lindsay, of Sacramento, California, a s i t s Director on June 5, The e n t i r e committee met seven times, often f o r two day sessions, and snall sub-committees held additional meetings. Two members of the Board of %gents, Mr. Elwood Bradford and M r . W i l l i a m Mathews, met with t h e f u l l committee on October 21, 1958, and t h e i r comments and suggestions were of material assistarce. A l l committee meetings were open meetings and were frequently attended by "-embers of t h e Legislature and representatives of t h e press. The f a c t s i n t h i s report, although presented because of t h e i r bearing upon the junior college needs, we believe, w i l l be of value t o a l l engaged i n planning for education beyond t h e high school l e v e l i n Arizona. Much d a t a i s presented on a county breakdown b a s i s t o enable a r e a l i s t i c appraisal of our needs and resource The exploding p o t e n t i a l population of Arizona's schools from t h e lower Czdes through the i n s t i t u t i o n s of higher learning presents both an immediate and e e long range challenge t o the Legislature and t o the people of Arizona. W hope that t h i s report w i l l be helpful i n meeting t h i s challenge and w i l l make a ="tribution of l a s t i n g value t o the educational program of Arizona. Respectfully submitted, /signed/ Robert W. Prochnow, Chairman Junior College Survey Committee /signed/



?*

''-ior



Schellenberg, Exec. Secy. College Survey Committee



CONTENTS



'age



...................................................... I Principal Findings ................................................... v Recommendations ...................................................... X I

Acknowledgments Chapter I Chapter I1



................................. Trends i n Employment i n Arizona .........................



The Size and Future Growth of Public School Population i n Arizona



Chapter I 1 Disparities i n mloyment Among Counties of 1 Arizona Chapter N Chapter V Chapter V I Chapter V I I Appendix I



...............................................



Arizona's Crisis i n Education Beyond the High School The Junior College a s a Way of Providing Education Beyond t h e High School



................................................



...................... Junior College P o s s i b i l i t i e s i n Arizona ................. Statutory Provisions f o r Public Junior Colleges .........

Legislation Establishing the Junior College Survey Col~lmittee



.............................................



Appendix I1 Statutory Provisions f o r the E s t a b l i s h e n t of Public Junior Colleges



................................ Appendix 1 1 Statutory Provisions f o r the Financial Support of 1 Public Junior Colleges ................................



ACXTJCWLEDGrnhTS



The d i r e c t o r of t h i s study conducted f o r t h e Junior College Survey C c m i t t e e vishes t o acknowledge with deep appreciation t h e generous and wholehearted cooceration extended him by a very great number of c i t i z e n s of Arizona i n business



?nd government without whose a s s i s t a n c e and materials it would have been impossibble t o produce t h i s r e p o r t within t h e few months a l l o t t e d t o t h e Committee f o r



i t s task.



I n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e following persons a r e mentioned with appreciation



x d thanks f o r t h e i r s p e c i f i c contributions:

2 k S. A . Watt, Assistant Vice-President, -. i . F. W. Moss, Arizona Commercial Manager, and h N r . Nurray Davidson, Commercial Engineer, of m .. ~ c r , C P T I STATES TELEPHONE AND TELEG~APH X U U AN COMPANY, whose population estimates f o r the years 1957-1970 were most valuable;



a . Charles M i l l e r , D i r e c t o r , Promotion and Research, 1958, h . -- . -:J'=LLXY NATIONAL BANK, who kindly provided i n advance of publication i n t h e ai -z o n z S t a t i s t i c a l Review estimates of 19-58 ~ o a u-l a t i o n " "trading areas" - - bv ----together with a f i l e f o r recent years of Arizona Progress;



.-



*



A



U



D r . Lauren W. Casaday, Director, Bureau o f Business and Public Research, College of Business and Public Administration, ~VEF.SITI O ARIZONA, who supplied t h e i n v a l i a b l e Arizona County Base Book (1958)) F F =a a f i l e of Arizona Business and Economic Review with s t u d i e s of Douglas, Nogales, a-2

TF-.



-



--



A. Richard, Director f o r Data, PUBLIC AND GAZETTE, who made a v a i l a b l e many s t a t i s t i c s about Arizona and ="Phoenix Metropolitan Area, including households and consumer suendina u n i t s r counties and. c i t i e s and dollax volume ranking i n s a l e s ;

A



.



-



I?-_



-lLO?TA



YE. James A. Rork, Administrator-Director, STATE E P O M N SERVICE, whose s t u d i e s o f Manpower Requirements and TrainML Y E T s of growth of



-



THE ARIZONA T X RESEARCH ASSOCIATION which supplied Property Tax Rates and A aluations, 1948-1957, 1958 supplement, and The Per Pupil Cost of u b l i c Schools i n Arizona, 1957-1958, a s well a s number o f p u p i l s i n l y attendance by high school d i s t r i c t s over a number of years; and



-----



---



D r . A. D. Kincaid, Jr., HAMILTON ASSOCIATES, Hospital Consultants, kindly nede a v a i l a b l e v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s compiled f o r t h e Maricopa County Hospital Survey.



Predictions found i n t h i s study of population and employment expansion, and growth r a t e s f o r high school populations and graduates by counties a r e derived froc information provided by t h e above mentioned publications.



i.



[ .

;



--wro:



"

-2



.-A& $g I



t

information included:

M r . Bernard M. Mergen, Manager, ARIZONA DEVELOPMEhT BOARD, who provided copiee o f I n d u s t r i a l F a c t s and Amazing Arizona! which d e a l t with n a t u r a l resources, s t e e l markets, e l e c t r o n i c s industry, cotton production and a v a r i e t y of o t h e r commodities and i n d u s t r i e s ;



$d l3 -&&a1



Other o f f i c i a l s i n S t a t e government who were most h e l p f u l i n giving background : ,*@



i



,,*

~



i i



-



C b! E!



---



Mr. K. S. Wingfield, Administrator, ARIZONA P W R AUTHORlTY, whose r e p o r t s , OE More Power f o r Arizona, were enlightening;



M r . Frank P. Knight, Director, DEPARTMEKC MINERAL RESOURCES, who was a mine of information about t h e long range program f o r t h e minerals industry, with s p e c i a reference t o copper production;

M r . J. R. Cullison, S t a t e Director of Vocational Education, M r . Delbert R. Jerome, Supervisor of Guidance and Director, Indian Education, and M r . Robert E. Taylor, Supervisor of Agriculture, DIVISION O VOCATIONAL EDUCATION, DEPARTMENT O PUBLIC INSTRUCTION, gave u s e f u l F F s t a t i s t i c s about t h e programs of vocational education i n high school and junior college with d a t a on unmet needs;



D r . L i l l i a n B. Johnston, Curriculum Coordinator, DEPAEiTNEIlT O PUBLIC F INSTRUCTION, who supplied Annual Reports o f school attendance and graduates by counties and d i s t r i c t s ;

T?3E B A D O REGEhTS, Mrs. Evelyn J. Kirmse, Chairman, who a t a l l times OR F displayed keen i n t e r e s t and co-operated i n every way throughout t h e course of t h e survey; and



M r . Npon R. Holbert, Budget Director, BOARD O REGEhTS, who a l s o generously F gave f i n a n c i a l d a t a concerning c o s t s of higher education.



I n a d d i t i o n t o D r . Lauren Casaday already mentioned, o f f i c i a l s of t h e UNIVERSITY O ARIZONA provided s i g n i f i c a n t information- F



-



D r . David L. P a t r i c k , Vice-President f o r Academic A f f a i r s , made a v a i l a b l e s t a t i s t i c s of t h e i n s t i t u t i o n a l source of new students, and t h e suggestions f o r changes i n admission requirements a t higher i n s t i t u t i o n s i n Arizona prepared by t h e Regents' Committee on Admission Requirements;



I1



D r . Robert L. Nugent, Executive Vice-President, who gave copies of the proposd of citizens of Yuma, September 7, 1955, and an u n o f f i c i a l report of June, 1956, 05

-



Arizona State College, was chairman; and

-



Uciversity of Arizona, 1957-1970, proved most informative.



'



M r . David L. Windsor, Registrar and Director of Admissions, provided enrollment b t a f o r the f a l l senester, 1958.

ARIZONA STATE UNNERSITY likewise made f u l l y available information concerning



D r . Harold D. Richardson, Academic Vice-President,



M. Alfred Thomas, Jr., Registrar and Director of Admissions. r



.



h zona counties through-: i D r . V i r g i l W. Gillenwater, Executive Dean, and M. Win R. Hensley, Registrar. r



;



Mr. Paul Guitteau, President, EASTERN ARIZONA JUNIOR COLUGE, graciously a m l i e d the d i r e c t o r with advance copy of t h e Report of Survey of Eastern Arizona



mutes of students, and~cornaunityservices present and future.

Dr. Robert J. Hannelly, Dean, i C m Edata on enrollment trends, CG

*@



was most accommodating i n providing PHOENIX curricula and future expansion p o s s i b i l i t i e s of



Junior college. school terms average d a i l y attendance for 1957-1958, high school enrollments,



E



-->



'"dents,



each of whom conducted research i n a s p e c i a l phase of t h e study:



?oral candidate at Arizona S t a t e University, excerpted s t a t u t o r y provisions -aining t o junior college establishment, regulation and f i n a n c i a l support from leegislative enactments of twenty s t a t e s . C

Mr. R. Dudley Eoyce, recently appointed Director of Placement Service, Stanford interviewed administrative o f f i c e r s a t t h e University of Arizona, h z a _ n a State University, and Arizona State College t o obtain firsthand impressions ~ n?



M r . Donald F. Varner, graduate student a t University of California, Santa Barbara, similarly interviewed many of the businessmen and d i r e c t o r s of departments o f Arizona s t a t e government previously noted t o discuss the significance of s t a t e ments and s t a t i s t i c s t o insure t h a t important d e t a i l s might not be overlooked.



f

v



"de *g& J e ~ . i



The u n t i r i n g and cheerful labors of the s t a f f , including Mrs. Clare Cahal, Secretary, Mrs. Louise Geare, end Miss Shirley Strauch, a r e acknowledged with deepest appreciation. In conclusion, the director of t h i s study wishes t o express h i s appreciation t o t h e Junior College Survey Committee and i t s several members whose candid criticisms and suggestions have guided and corrected h i s course of inquiry throughout i t s period. Frank B. Lindsay, Director Junior College Survey Committee



.



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.



"P



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sic



l%a srtments state2d.



PRINCIPAL FINDINGS The Junior College Survey Committee has carefully studied s t a t i s t i c s of t h e r q i d growth i n numbers of Arizona's elementary and high school students,of t h e counting numbers of young people of college-age both i n and out of collegiate



i a t ion



institutions, of the unmet needs of business and industry f o r t r a i n e d manpower,

Wd of enrollment projections f o r the State's higher i n s t i t u t i o n s .



From the



various sources of information a t i t s command, the Committee has summarized i t s ;rincipal findings.

3r



The Chapters of t h i s Report contain more d e t a i l e d treatment



atout each of the statements which are s e t f o r t h 3elow:



nmittee



1. There w i l l be a great increase i n numbers of young people who

w i l l need f a c i l i t i e s and opportunity f o r continued education beyond



high school. The population of Arizona has grown from 750,OCO i n 1950 t o 1,200,000 i n 1958, as estimated by the Valley Natiooal Bank i n i t s annual s t a t i s t i c a l review. According t o estimates cf the U. S. Bureau of t h e Census, between 1955 and 1970 t h e population of Arizona w i l l have increased by 79% t o bring the t o t a l t o 1,900,000 o r 2,000,000. (u. S News and World Report, Nov. 28, 1958, page 78. )



.



In Arizona t h e annual increase of elementary school population between 1954-55 and 1957-58 i s e$. The number of high school students increased 32% within t h e same period. High School graduates numbered 8,159 i n 1958; by 1965 they w i l l number 14,000. Of t h e 8,159 graduating from high school i n 1958, 41% a r e thought t o have entered college. Only 60% of high school students have been graduating from high School. The remaining 40% likewise needs t o become employable through training. 2. There w i l l be great increases i n enrollments at four-year i n s t i t u t i o n s . The present higher i n s t i t u t i o n s of Arizona report f a l l enrollments, 1958, t o be : University of Arizona, 10,700; Arizona State University, 9,708; and Arizona State College, 1,393. The two Universities a t Tucson and Tem~e expect t o approach each 20,000 students, including upper division and graduate schools, within t h e decade. The State College w i l l likewise t r i p l e i n enrollments. Reference t o the expected college-age population w i l l Quickly make evident t h e d i f f i c u l t y of t h e three higher i n s t i t u t i o n s t o care f o r the needs f o r education beyond high school.



v



Furthermore, these four-year i n s t i t u t i o n s have not customarily provided t h e technical-terminal t r a i n i n g required f o r many occupations i n business and industry. The p r o j e c t i o n of college-age population (18 t o 24 y e a r s ) , according t o t h e U. S. Bureau of t h e Census, Current Population Reports, S e r i e s P-25, No. 132, shows f o r Arizona an increase between 1950 and 1973 of 295$, t h e highest percentage of growth f o r any s t a t e :



Year

1950 1958 1963 1968 1973



Number of College-Age Population of S t a t e



eo ,000 104,000 132,000 178,000 236,000



The comparable percentage increase f o r t h e United S t a t e s i s estimated a t 164$. The P r e s i d e n t ' s Committee on Education Beyond t h e High School i n i t s Second Report, J u l y , 1957) notes t h a t : "The needs and demands of individuals and of s o c i e t y i n t h e next 1 0 t o 1 5 years w i l l r e q u i r e g r e a t expansion of t h e o v e r - a l l capacity of e x i s t i n g colleges and u n i v e r s i t i e s and of o t h e r posthigh school i n s t i t u t i o n s , with improvements r a t h e r than s a c r i f i c e of q u a l i t y . Greater d i v e r s i t y and a c c e s s i b i l i t y of educational opportunities w i l l &so be needed.



.....



'Without r e a l i z i n g it we have become a ' s o c i e t y of s t u d e n t s . ' More than 40 m i l l i o n of us---one-quarter of t h e nation- -are e n r o l l e d i n formal education programs. "



-



3. There w i l l be a considerable increase i n non-agricultv:ral wage and s a l a r i e d employment i n Arizona and, therefore, a need f o r a d d i t i o n a l professional, semiprofessional, managerial and o f f i c i a l , c l e r i c a l and s k i l l e d workers. The Arizona S t a t e Employment Service i n i t s Study of Manpower Requirements and Training Needs has found t h a t while between 1956 and. 1961 employment i n mining w i l l have increased only by 7.64'3 and i n a g r i c u l t u r e 12.5% employment i n manufacturing w i l l grow by 121$, i n construction i n d u s t r i e s 53.776, i n s e r v i c e s 48.3%) and i n t r a d e 35.746



vided 25s

ng t o



In terms of Occupational Group the numerical and percentage increases a r e Increased Number of positions, 1956-61 29,400 Percentage Growth 64.05% 46.88 55 37 65.70 54 09



the



5,



Occupati o n d Group Skilled Workers Clerical Workers Semi- s k i l l e d Workers Professional Workers Unskilled Managerial-Official Sales Persons Semiprofessional Agricultural Workers State Total



18,&O

16,500 13,800 1, 1900 11,600



8,800

7,900 4,500 1,500 124,700



46 77

51.16 45.81 93 50 60.00 51.35



The above numbers of positions represent expansions and do not take f u l l account of replacements needed by reason of separation from job, retirement,



4.



There i s very unequal d i s t r i b u t i o n of population and high school graduates mong the counties of Arizona: Distribution of 1957-1958 High School Graduates Among Counties Number of Graduates Percent of S t a t e Total 1.02 4.82 2.42 3.14 2.21



1



than



:al



83 393 198 256 153



1eo



1.88



3,990



61



48.90



197 1,446 445



84



8,159

5'



282 391



0 75 2.41 17-72 5.45 1.03 3.46 4.79



100.00



Much the same unevenness of concentration of population w i l l continue i n t o foreseeable future. In p a r t t h i s i s a consequence of the f a c t t h a t only -41% of the area of Arizona i s p r i v a t e l y owned. The remainder i s under deral State ownership o r held i n t r u s t f o r Indians. or

VII



When the annual r a t e s of growth of t h e high school pupil population between 1947-1948 and 1957-1958 are projected t o 1965, the following figures emerge : Projection of High School Average Daily Attendance t o 1965 (based upon annual county growth r a t e s between 1947-48 & 1957-58) High School A.D.A. i n 1957-1958 558 2,205 Estimated High School A.D .A. i n 1964-1965 Percentage of Total A.D .A. i n 1964-1965



County Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham Greenlee Maricopa Mohave Navajo Pima Pinal Santa Cruz Yavapai Yuma Arizona



1,106



1,287 731 936 23,427 318 1,112 8,600 2,451



441



Percentage of Distribution of Population (1958) Among Counties County Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham Greenlee Maricopa Mohave Navajo Pima Pinal Santa Cruz Yavapai Yuma Arizona Estimated Population Percentage of State Total 2.67 4.08 3.33 2.33



6.

Ju:

a: co: an( mr e

C0 1



1.08 1.17

48.33 0.75 2.92 20.83 5.42 1.00 2.08 4.00 100.00



in



Aps coc coc GiJ

G~



Maricopa and Pima Counties account f o r two-thirds of t h e population of Arizona. Between 1958 and 1965 t h e population of Maricopa County w i l l grow by 57%; but Phoenix w i l l experience only a 19%growth, Chandler 38$, Mesa 47% Tempe 60$, Glendale 126$, and Scottsdale 225%. Gila, Graham and Greenlee Counties together have 4.58% of the population.

VIII



Gre Mar Mk o Nv a Pin Pir sax Yav



Yun



The five northern counties---Apache, Coconino, Mohave, Navajo, and Yavapai- --have 11.75% of t h e population. The concentration of high school population and of high school graduates i s likewise unequal: Distribution of 1957-58 High School Population Among Counties County Apache Cochise Coconino

Gila



Number of Students



%



of State Total



Graham Greenlee Maricopa Mohave Navajo Pima Pinal Santa Cruz Yavapai Yuma

hi zona



Thus, i n 1965 Maricopa County w i l l s t i l l have 51.63$ of t h e high school population; Pima County w i l l have 18.52%; Pinal 5.38%; Yuma 5.22%; and Cochise 4.43%. The percentages f o r these f i v e counties closely p a r a l l e l present concentrations.



6 . Study of junior college systems of other s t a t e s have convinced the Junior College Survey Committee t h a t t h e i r experience demonstrates t h a t a full-time student enrollment of 320 i s t h e minimum t o enable a junior college t o maintain t r a n s f e r and occupational t r a i n i n g curricula with range and quality. A formula f o r prediction of p o t e n t i a l junior college enrollment i s given i n a chapter of t h i s Report; here w i l l be tabulated by counties the p o t e n t i a l full-time equivalent student enrollments of counties i n 1958 and 1965:

Potential Full-Time Equivalent Junior College Enrollment County Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham Greenlee Naricopa ?;lohave Number, 1957-1958 Number, 1964-1965



Based upon 1957-1958 high school graduates, the only counties not now served by junior colleges which seem t o assure within t h e next few years a minimum p o t e n t i a l enrollment of 320 full-time equivalent students are Cochise, Pima, Pinal, and Yuma. The prospects f o r other l o c a l i t i e s w i l l be examined i n a chapter of t h i s Report. It i s also t o be noted t h a t the p o t e n t i a l f u l l time junior college student enrollment i n Maricopa County seems shortly t o exceed t h e present capacity of t h e Phoenix College t o accommodate the numbers of students who may be desirous of attending t h a t i n s t i t u t i o n .



C-



Recc



I

-



sta:



-



c01:



Recommendat ion I The Legislature s h a l l c r e a t e a Junior College S t a t e Commission, t h e majority of the membership t o be l a y people. Ccment: The Junior College S t a t e Commission s h a l l be separate from t h e present S t a t e Board of Education and t h e Board of Regents f o r t h e Universities and S t a t e College. Explanation: Membership on t h e S t a t e Board of Education is e x - o f f i c i o ; members have not t h e time t o enable them t o give t h e consideration required f o r planning a statewide system of junior colleges intermediate between high school and higher education. The Board of Regents has no Chancellor t o e f f e c t a coordinated p l a n f o r higher education; each of t h e e x i s t i n g t h r e e i n s t i t u t i o n s must p r e s s upon t h e Board i t s claims f o r recognition and budgetary approval. I n t h e years immediately ahead t h e Board of Regents w i l l have urgent decisions t o make with respect t o expansions of upper d i v i s i o n s and graduate and p r o f e s s i o n a l schools.

A Junior College S t a t e Commission could devote i t s e l f t o t h e p a r t i c u l a r



concerns of education beyond t h e high school which a r e both occupational (terminal and semiprofessional) and courses p a r a l l e l t o lower d i v i s i o n programs of four year i n s t i t u t i o n s .

i s suggested t h a t r presen ti of and of Note: - t aIt Board of Educationabee memberst aofv teh e ~t h en Board of RegentsCommissio~ the S te u iz College S t a t e



t o f u r t h e r cooperation between t h e l e v e l s of education and agencies concerned with educational problems o f thi ~ t ~ t representative from t h e t a t e Board of Education, chosen from t h e Division of Vocational Education, be a memb r o secommendation I1



i;zO1,;;



e -



The Junior College S t a t e Commission s h a l l be authorized and d i r e c t e d t o s e t standards f o r t h e establishment and development of a l l p u b l i c junior o r community colleges, f o r t h e administration, operation, and a c c r e d i t a t i o n of j u n i o r colleges, and f o r q u a l i f i c a t i o n s of i n s t r u c t i o n a l s t a f f , with due reference t o vocational competence t o i n s t r u c t i n occupational a s w e l l as academic subjects. The Junior College S t a t e Ccmmission s h a l l approve t h e c u r r i c u l a offered by a junior college, i n accordance with standards and annually approve t h e e l i g i b i l i t y

Of



a junior college t o receive S t a t e apportionment o r subsidy.

XI



Comment: The administrative and instructional s t a f f of a junior college may require special arrangements for c e r t i f i c a t i o n i n order t o insure t h a t experienced and qualified community leaders i n businesses, the professions and the a r t s may teach classes i n the f i e l d s of t h e i r specific competences. Recommendation 111 The Legislature s h a l l declare for a l l junior colleges hereinafter t o be established t h a t the operating d i s t r i c t s h a l l be one county o r two o r more counties. The minimum tax base of the Junior College D i s t r i c t s h a l l be an assessed v a l u a t i o n of s i x t y millions of d o l l a r s ($60,000,000), and a minimum p o t e n t i a l of full-time equivalent students s h a l l be 320.

A full-time equivalent student i s student enrollment f o r f i f t e e n



1



i

--



I



college



semester c r e d i t units, per semester. Recommendation IV The governing board of a d i s t r i c t maintaining a junior college o r junior colleges s h a l l consist of f i v e members o r t r u s t e e s , regularly elected as prescribed by law, not more than two of whom s h a l l reside i n t h e same c i t y , municipality, or high school d i s t r i c t .

, . '



Recommendation V When it i s desired t o form a



f i v e per cent of the qualified e l e c t o r s i n t h e t e r r i t o r y included i n the proposed d i s t r i c t s h a l l p e t i t i o n the county superintenderrt of schools f o r establishment of the district. The County Superintendent s h a l l transmit t h e p e t i t i o n t o the



d



ounty junior college d i s t r i c t , not l e s s than



Commission which s h a l l conduct a survey of the proposed d i s t r i c t t o determine t h a t t h e d i s t r i c t , i f established, w i l l meet minimum standards of assessed valuation and p o t e n t i a l full-time student enrollment.

If the Commission approves the



p e t i t i o n , t h e county o r counties s h a l l c a l l and conduct an e l e c t i o n as prescribed.

If the majority of the votes c a s t favor the formation of the junior college d i s t r i c t



tine d i s t r i c t s h a l l deem t o be fomed.

XI1



-



. J



>

3.



a Note: - It i sdiins,tendedf the~tthet avote t o e sst h b ll il c a p i l outlay, a t r i c t or t o bond the

E -



k



2

&



E2



kr,



junior college di .ow t h e procedure for i n the Constitution of Arizona, Article 7, Section 13, a s amended a t election Nov. 4, 1930, effective Dec. 1, 1930: "Questions upon bond issues o r s p e c i a l assessments s h a l l be submitted t o the vote of r e a l property taxpayers, who s h a l l also i n a l l respects ba qualified e l e c t o r s of t h i s State, and of the p o l i t i c a l subdivisions thereof affected by such question."



hie The Legislature s h a l l authorize and require t o be levied i n each county not

f

Of



intaining and operating a junior college a t a x f o r reimbursement f o r the number full-time equivalent students resident in t h e county i n attendance a t a Such reimbursement



junior college i n the State during the preceding f i s c a l year.



shall 5e the cost of i n s t r u c t i o n of a full-time equivalent student a t t h e junior



college attended, l e s s State apportionment or subsidy, plus an amount f o r c a p i t a l outlay and debt service as s e t by the Junior College State Commission. crcmendation VI I The Legislature s h a l l replace t h e practice of f l a t s m appropriations t o the u Presently established junior colleges (phoenix J u n i o r College and Eastern Arizona junior college) with s u p ~ o r t based upon full-time equivalent students, a t such a

t k e as greater State support i s forthcoming from t h e recommended formula than i s



ibed

32



a?~l.~priated under the present law. d f The number of full-time equivalent students shall be computed by dividing t o t a l c r e d i t u n i t s by f i f t e e n , per semester. Support s h a l l be based upon



regular day enrollment; members of classes for a d u l t s s h a l l not be included. at

It i s suggested t h a t an increased amount, not t o exceed twenty per cent, over



the regularly authorized apportionment per full-time equivalent students , be allowed

I



3

1.



lor the f i r s t . three hundred twenty fbll-time equivalent students.

:t Comment : It i s intended t h a t t h e State s h a l l siUpp01 current costs a maintenance and operation of junior colleges t o the extent of f i f t y p of net costs, l e s s federal monies received by t h e junior college.

1



.cent



Ac.1

i



We are indebted to Ms Elizabeth Lindsay is

of Davis, California for the preparation of

thir nrnnh



CHAPTER I. F COL THE SIZE AND FUTm3 GROWTH O PUBLIC S H O POPULATION I N ARIZONA

- --



D i s t r i b u t i o n of Arizona's Total Population: The estimated 1958 population of Arizona i s 1,200,000. very unevenly d i s t r i b u t e d .

;



This population i s



Maricopa County with 580,000 people has 48.33% of t h e



population of Arizona.



Pima County with 250,000 people has 20.83% of t h e t o t a l .



Sext i n rank a r e P i n a l County (65,000) with 5.42%; Cochise County ( 4 9 , 0 0 0 ) ~ 4.08%; and Yuma County (48,000), 4.00%. Than f o u r - f i f t h s of t h e population. (40,000)) 3.335, t h e s e six have Together t h e f i v e counties i n c l u d e more



With t h e a d d i t i o n of Coconino County

all t h e people i n Arizona:



86% of



Percentage D i s t r i b u t i o n of population (1958) Among Counties County Estimated Population

- .32,000 49,000 40,000 28,000



Percentage of S t a t e T o t a l 2.67 4.08



k

F

t



Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham Greenlee Mari copa Mohave Navajo Pinal Santa Cruz Y avapai Yuma A r i zona



A?n



13,000 14,000 580,000 9,000 35,000 ,.An



1.17 48.33 0 075

2.92 20.83 5.42 1.00 2.08

AVV



h



02 ,uuu 12,000 25,000

40. UUU

I



n



an^



4 .oo



1,2 0 0 , ~ ~ ~



i n n nn VV



.



The unequal d i s t r i b u t i o n may be seen i f t h e v a r i a t i o n s i n d e n s i t y of F c p a a t i o n , t h e number of people p e r square mile, among counties a r e compared:



County Maricopa Pima Pinal Santa Cruz Cochise Greenlee Gila Yuma Nava jo Y avapai Apache Graham C oconino Mohave



Number of People per square mile



Inroundednumbers, t h e p o p u l a t i o n p e r s q u a r e m i l e r a n g e s f r o m n e a r l y 6 3 i n Maricopa County, 27 i n Pima, and 1 2 i n P i n a l , down t o t h r e e p e r square mile i n Yavapai, Apache, and Graham Counties, t o two i n Coconino County, and only sevent e n t h s of one person i n Mohave County. Tersons per square mile. The concentration of population w i t h i n counties i s likewise very marked. The following t a b l e i l l u s t r a t e s t h e high degree of urbanization w i t h i n many counties : County Mariccpa Pima Pinal C ochi s e Yuma Coconino Navajo Apache Gila Y avapai Greenlee Graham Santa Cruz Mohave ~ o t 1958 d Population 580,000 250,000 65,000 49,000 48,000 40,000 35,000 Area of Concentration Metropolitan Phoenix Metropolitan Tucson Casa Grande-Coolidge Douglas-Bisbee a r e a Yuma a r e a Flagstaff area Globe-Kiami a r e a Prescott area Morenci-Clifton a r e a Safford-Thatcher a r e a Nogales a r e a Kingman a r e a Population 550,000 225,000 28,000 30,000 36,000 22,000 For Arizona a s a whole t h e density i s 10.56



Ii



i



i



ff



i



r



Since only 15.41% of t h e a r e a of Arizona i s a v a i l a b l e f o r p r i v a t e ownership, such congestion of population i n a few l o c a l i t i e s i s p r e s e n t l y inescapable. Water and power t o support a g r i c u l t u r a l production and i n d u s t r i e s a l s o a r e s i g n i ficant factors.

2



Arizona's population i n 1950 was 750,OCO.



The U. S. Bureau of t h e Census



;



estimates t h a t t h e growth i n population between 1955 and 1970 w i l l be 79$ t o b r i ~ g the number of r e s i d e n t s t o l,9OO,OCO o r two million. Between 1940



[



Arizona i s a r a p i d l y growing and increasingly important s t a t e .

t



and 1950 t h e population o f Arizona grew 53.42%) and 1958 f i n d s t h e people of Arizona 60.00% more numerous than i n 1950. From 499,261 i n 1940 and 749,587 i n I n r a t e of population



L

'



1950, t h e current estimate has become 1,200,OCO people.



growth, ~ r i z o n a - - 7 7 %over a ten-year period--ranks second only t o Nevada and f a r ahead i n percentage gain of population t o F l o r i d a (69%), N w Mexico (55$), e

and C a l i f o r n i a and Colorado (each with 42%) f o r t h e p a s t decade.



The -



Growth of Pupil Population i n t h e Public Schools The e f f e c t of such phenomenal increase i n population i s r e f l e c t e d likewise



in t h e growth of t h e elementary and high school populations of t h e p u b l i c schools:

Elementary School Membership High School Membership High School Graduates



School-year



In 1957-1958 t h e number of high school graduates was 23.55% l a r g e r t h a n j u s t

three years e a r l i e r . The number of high school students i n 1957-1958 was 32.28%



greater t h a n i n 1954-1955, and t h e elementary school population i n t h e same three years increased by 24.90%The y e a r l y r a t e of increase f o r t h e same i n t e r v a l i n elementary school and high school i s a l s o informative: Percentage annual increase Elementary School High School 1955-1956 over 1954-1955 7.59 6.79 1956-1957 over 1955-1956 7.63 1957-1958 over 1956-1957



9.91



It appears t h a t t h e elementary school population i s growing a t an annual r a t e

which w i l l very soon exceed 8%. The more r a p i d l y increasing annual r a t e s f o r high school probably r e f l e c t t h e increased b i r t h r a t e s and a growing tendency f o r young people mare and more t o s t a y i n school u n t i l graduation.



It i s u s e f u l t o note t h a t



while t h e t o t a l high school population grew by 32.28$ between 1954-1955 and 19571958, t h e fourth grade population alone increased by 41.4$, from 16,339 t o 23,101. The fourth grade p u p i l s of 1957-1958 w i l l e n t e r high school i n t h e f a l l semester of 1963.



It seems safe t o conclude t h a t t h e l a r g e r numbers of p u p i l s already enrolled



i n elementary school w i l l very s h o r t l y r e s u l t i n a marked increase i n high school students and graduates. This f a c t makes timely an i n v e s t i g a t i o n of opportunities



f o r these young people t o obtain education beyond high school. The r a t e of growth i n elementary schools d i f f e r s widely among counties, however, a s a few examples can i l l u s t r a t e : Increases and Percentages of Growth i n F i r s t Grade Enrollments Among Counties 1 s t Grade Membership, 1954-1955 378 571 143 10,970 561 1st Grade Membership, 1957-1958 Percentage of increase over 3-year period 60.85% 49-56 42.66



County .+ache f?avaj o Xohave Nar ic opa c o conino



608

854 204 14,418 70 7



31. k3



26.03



I n a l l of these t h e r a t e of growth i s s u b s t a n t i a l l y i n excess of 8% p e r



annum.



The t o t a l increase stztewide was from 23,847 i n 1954-1955 t o 29,335 i n O t h e o t h e r hand some counties showed l i t t l e gain i n school n



1957-1958, o r 23.01%.



gopulation : Yavapai had a f i r s t grade growth of only 1.680; Graham, of 6.51%; and

Gila and Greenlee Counties a c t u a l l y showed a decrease--of 11.48% and 14.56%



respectively.



It i s useful t o note t h e varying r a t e s of growth i n high school average d a i l y

~ t t e n d a n c eover t h e t e n years from



1947-1948 t o 1957-1958 among counties.



The



aaplication of t h e annual average r a t e of grcwth t o t h e seven-year period provides an estimate f o r t h e average d a i l y attendance by the school-year Average



1958-1965



1964-1965 :



Annual

High School Asache Cachise Coconino Gila Graham Greenlee :n.otlave Navajo Pima Santa Cruz Yavapai 295 1,380 520 1,020 High School Growth Rate Estimated High School ADA. 750 2,800 1,500 1,500 800 1,200 350 1,350 11.700

i



558

2,205



1,106

1,287



6

3



946



1 1 15



1



638 539

262



731 936

1,U2 8,600

1.277



7

2



739

4,032 319 1.067



5

1 1



4

2



Lnn



525



L



The t o t a l of t h e county estimates f o r 1964-1965 i s 63,225 u n i t s of average daily attendance f o r t h e high schools. When t h e average annual r a t e of growth



Statewide i s calculated f o r 1947-8 (22,816) t o 1957-8

LC$; applying t h i s r a t e t o t h e



(46,701) it i s found t o be



1947-8 base, i n 1964-5 t h e high school ADA would



f e 62,600, which agrees very well with the t o t a l of county estimates calculated Segarately i n terms of t h e i r several d i f f e r i n g growth r a t e s . To provide a check upon t h e influence of f a c t o r s which may o r i g i n a l l y have



I

f



Stimulated population growth within &-county i n t h e e a r l i e r years of t h e 1948-1958 decade, and t o give proper weight t o influences which may have become operative only recently, t h e annual average r a t e s of high school growth f o r t h e i n t e r v a l 1955-1956 1957-1958 have been calculated and independent estimates of ADA f o r 1964-1965



t



I i



i



1



'ere



made.



By counties t h e r e s u l t s were as follows:



Arizona only 61.7% of eighth grade p u p i l s graduate frcm high school which i s below t h e n a t i o n a l average of 62.7% and much smaller than t h e 71$ graduating i n Californi? and Utah o r t h e 82% of Nevada p u p i l s who graduate from high school. The same source



p o i n t s out t h a t while school revenue derived from S t a t e sources i s only 27% i n Arizona, t h e S t a t e provides 44% of school support i n C a l i f o r n i a and 43% i n Utah. With only t h e d i s t r i c t t a x base available t o draw upon f o r three-fourths of t h e i r funds, high schools have been l i m i t e d i n providing t h e foundation t r a i n i n g s i n vocational f i e l d s which would hold more students i n high school. Clearly t h e r e i s need f o r more young people t o co~lipletehigh school, t o obtain sound groundwork f o r f u t u r e t r a i n i n g before high school graduation, and t o go on i n t o advanced t r a i n i n g a f t e r graduation. For many t h e need i s f o r business



t r a i n i n g - - s e c r e t a r i a l and office-machine operation--and i n d i s t r i b u t i v e f i e l d s , wholesale, r e t a i l , and s a l e s . For another l a r g e number t h e need i s apprenticeship There i s apparent a



v i t h c l a s s e s i n r e l a t e d s t u d i e s outside of working hours.



very considerable need t o motivate numbers of high school students and graduates t o e n t e r college. This i s shown i n d i r e c t l y by a comparison of Arizona with ad-



joining s t a t e s with respect t o p e r cent of school age population e n r o l l e d i n school, average number o f days attended p e r p u p i l enrolled, and high school graduates a s p e r cent of eighth-grade enrollment:



C ountv



Annual Rate of Growth f o r period 1955-1958



Projected ADA, 1964-5



Estimated High School Graduates 1964-65 180 680 375 285 215 255 7,360



Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham Greenlee Mari copa Mohave Navajo Pima Final Santa Cruz Y avapai Yuma



18%

9.5 13



65

300 2,500 730 100 360 600



The sum of county estimates i s 66,695; t h e statewide r a t e of 10.5$ gives 66,500. Certain counties show d i f f e r i n g growth r a t e s i n t h e two t a b l e s . Apache



is increasing i n high school population much more r a p i d l y i n recent years than t h e



Zen-year r a t e would i n d i c a t e .

a ~ ~ r a t e aof l increase. ~



O t h e other hand, Yuma seems t o b e lessening i n n



By 1965 high school graduates w i l l be approaching



14,000 i n number, compared with 8,159 f o r 1957-1958 I n Maricopa County c e r t a i n d i s t r i c t s promise t o be g r e a t l y enlarged i n high school population by 1965. Agua F r i a , a mere 263 i n ADA i n 1956 and 429 i n 1958,



"ZY reach 1,000 by 1965 if it continues t o grow a s it has over t h e p a s t t h r e e

Years. Glendale Union would increase from 2,700 i n 1958 t o 5,500. Scottsdale



wc~ld reach 3,400.



The only other d i s t r i c t showing comparable gains i s F l a g s t a f f Since Arizona i s a t t r a c t i n g more and



should have an ADA of 1,300 by 1965.



%Ore r e s i d e n t s and i n d u s t r i e s , t h e estimates of increases i n high school population i n all l i k e l i h o o d a r e e n t i r e l y t o o conservative. Even with Arizona's present elementary school population, without additions in-migration over t h e next decade, t h e annual t o t a l s of high school graduates g r e a t l y expand if a l a r g e r percentage of high school p u p i l s p e r s i s t e d throughOut



high school.



S t a t i s t i c s provided by t h e U. S. Office of Education show t h a t i n



Comparison of Arizona with Adjoining S t a t e s School-Age P o ~ u l a t i o n and E x ~ e n d i t u r e s United States Per cent of School-Age (5-17) Population Enrolled i n School, 1953-1954, note 1 Average Number of Days Schools were i n Session, 1953-1954, note 1 Average Number of Days Attended Per P u p i l Enrolled, 1953-1954, note 1 High School Graduates, 1953-1954, a s Per cent of Eighth- grade Enrollment 1949-1950, note 1 and note 3 Estimated Per cent of School Revenue Derived From S t a t e sources, 1957-1958, note 2 Arizona C a l i f o r n i a Nevada



Utah



New Mexico



83.5



89.2



90 .O



85;o



94.3



83.6



178.6



170



-5



176.8



176.2



174.1 180.0



158 9



140.9



174 3



62.7



61.7



71.5



82.3



71.4



50.0



40.6



27.1



44.4



46.4



42.7



67.9



Note 1- U. S. Office of Education: Biennial Survey 1952-1954, Washington, D. C . , 1956. Note 2National Education Association, Research Division: Advance Estimates of Public Elementary and Secondary Schools f o r t h e School Year 1957-1958, Washington, D. C., November 1957.

U. S. Office of Education:



Note 3-



Biennial Survey, 1948-1950, 1952.



It w a s noted i n t h e P r i n c i p a l Findings t h a t t h e r e w i l l s h o r t l y be g r e a t

i n c r e a s e s i n numbers of high school graduates who w i l l want t o continue t h e i r education beyond high school. Many thousands of t h e s e w i l l have no need t o pursue



a full four-year undergraduate c o l l e g e curriculum t o make themselves employable i n t h e l a b o r market. I n a d d i t i o n t h e r e a r e young people who have q u i t high school



before graduation; i n numerous i n s t a n c e s t h e s e f i n d it necessary t o r e t u r n t o school t o f i t themselves more f u l l y f o r occupations f o r which t h e y show a p t i t u d e and i n t e r e s t . The o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r employment afforded by t h e expanding business



and i n d u s t r y of Arizona w i l l be examined i n t h e next chapter.



a growing population and t o expand i t s f a c i l i t i e s f o r education of i t s young people.



T b State stands f i r s t i n growth of a g r i c u l t u r a l inccme; over the decade 1946-1956

the gain was 128%. Arizona leads the nation i n non-ferrous mineral production; i n



1956 the State produced 34.8% of the national output.



(~tah ranked next with a



[



also leads the nation i n growth of manufacturing and non-agricultural employment

3s



well as i n r a t e of growth of bank deposits. The labor force of Arizona i n 1957 was d i s t r i b u t e d Services, includes Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Agriculture Manufacturing Government : federal, s t a t e ,

and Public U t i l i t i e Contract Construction Minina



as follows:



33 -919

1 59 1 11.05



5 51

4.71



d o l l a r s i n four basic industries.



The percentage d i s t r i b u t i o n of income was as



follows : Mining Manuf acturina Tourists Employment i n Arizona i s not s t a t i c . 13-85 The employment picture of the moment

A study conducted by



will undergo rapid changes i n the years immediately ahead.



the Arizona State Employment Service of Manpower Requirements and Training Needs



Predicts t h a t while between 1956 and 1961 the population of Arizona w i l l increase

30%, non-agricultural wage and salaried employment w i l l increase 52$.



The increase



in agricultural employment w i l l be only 1 . 9 and i n mining 7.6$. 256



O the other n



hand employment



manufacturing w i l l grow by



construction industries,



53.7%; i n services, 48.3%; and i n trade, 35.7$.

The Study summarizes the s i t u a t i o n a t hand: "The next f i v e years w i l l see a considerable s h i f t i n g i n non-agric u l t u r a l wage and salaried employment i n Arizona. Manufacturing firms w i l l employ the l a r g e s t number of workers i n 1961. The wholesale and r e t a i l t r a d e s and the service i n d u s t r i e s were f i r s t and second i n numbers employed i n 1956, but they w i l l s l i p t o second and t h i r d place respectively. Government establishments, federal, s t a t e , and local, should maintain t h e i r position of fourth l a r g e s t employer of wage and s a l a r i e d workers. Dropping frcm f i f t h t o s i x t h place with respect t o numbers employed w i l l be the transportation, communications, and public u t i l i t i e s industry. Construction employment w i l l r i s e fram s i x t h t o f i f t h place position due t o increased demands f o r i n d u s t r i a l and r e s i d e n t i a l building as well as highway expansion and r i v e r development construction. Mining i s one of the most stable industries i n Arizona. h r i n g the period 1956 t o 1961, t o t a l employment i n mining should increase by only 8%. This increase w i l l maintain the mining industry a s seventh l a r g e s t employing industry i n the State. In eighth position, i n terms of numbers employed, are the finance, insurance and r e a l e s t a t e firms. This rapii!ly expanding industry i s expected t o show an increase of 75$ i n numbers employed during the five-year period. " After considering the numbers of graduates, with t r a i n i n g f o r specific occupational groups, from the State ' s high schools, p r i v a t e schools, the Univers i t i e s and State College, the Study comments t h a t by 1961: "There w i l l be a need f o r 72,100 additional professional, semiprofessional, managerial and o f f i c i a l , c l e r i c a l , and s k i l l e d workers i n Arizona above and beyond the i d e n t i f i a b l e additions t o the labor force discussed previously. The t o t a l d e f i c i t f o r a l l occupational groups i s estimated a t 112,200 t r a i n e d workers "



.



The Study of the Ehployment Security Commission shows the needs of Arizona f o r t r a i n e d manpower by comparison of employment among occupational groups i n 1956 and projections f o r 1961.



It must be borne i n mind t h a t the predictions a r e conserva-



t i v e since they are based upon industries already established i n the State or presently known t o Se locating i n Arizona; there w i l l undoubtedly be additions not acticipated i n 1956 and 1957 when the Study was o r i g i n a l l y undertaken.



Occupational Group Frofe ssional Semiprofessional Managerial and O f f i c i a l Clerical Service Agricultural Skilled Semi s k i l l e d Lhskilled



Employed, 21,000



1956



Fro jected, 1961 34,800 9,300 26,000 58,900 25,100 36,400 4,000 75 300 46,300 33,900



4,820

l'7,2CO 40,100 17,200 24,800 2,500 45,900 29,800 22, COO 225,300



,



350,000



It i s revealing t o rearrange the s t a t i s t i c s i n order of numerical increases

frcm l a r g e s t t o smallest group and t o s e t alongside the percentage increase f r c n



Occupational Group



Numerical Increase i n Positions 1956-1961 29,400



Predicted Percent age Growth 1956- 1961 64.05%



*Skilled Workers *Clerical Workers Semi+i l l e d Professional Unskilled *Services -Managerial and O f f i c i a l *Sales Persons *Semiprofessional Agricultural Workers S t a t e Total



18,800

16,500



13,800

1 ,900 1



11,600 8,800

7,900 4,500 1,500 124,700



46.88 55 -37 65 070 54 eo9 46 -77 51.16 45.81 93 50 60 .OO



51 35



It also must be kept i n mind t h a t the numbers above represent expansions and

do not take f u l l account of replacements needed by reason of separation from the



Occupation, retirement, o r death.



When the possible services of junior colleges



i n meeting the t r a i n i n g needs are considered i n a l a t e r chapter, it w i l l be found t h a t these i n s t i t u t i o n s a r e i d e a l l y suited t o give occupational t r a i n i n g t o s k i l l e d , c l e r i c a l , and semiprofessional workers a s well a s persons t o be employed a t s a l e s



and services jobs, as s t a r r e d above.

Of the job increases by



These qccupational groups account f o r



57.5'76



1961. The t o t a l of persons estimated t o be employed i n 1961 i s likewise 58.5% of a l l projected employment. Even

17



these c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s i n



i n the professional and managerial groups, junior colleges can supply opportunity f o r the f i r s t two years of college i n s t r u c t i o n p a r a l l e l t o the lower divisions i n four-year i n s t i t u t i o n s . The Study made by the Arizona State Ehployment Service concludes: "Of every 100 additional openings f o r draftsmen and designers, only twelve are now i d e n t i f i a b l e from present estimates. The demand f o r secretaries, stenographers and t y p i s t s w i l l exceed the i d e n t i f i a b l e available supply by over 56%. Only 13%of the number of additional machinists required and none of t h e t o o l and die makers needed w i l l be t r a i n e d according t o present estimates. Only 27% of the additional requirements f o r a i r c r a f t and automobile mechanics w i l l be met by f Arizona t r a i n i n g f a c i l i t i e s . O the additional jobs f o r e l e c t r i c a l and electronic repairmen and technicians only one-third w i l l be f i l l e d with Arizona trained workers." Since only t h r e e - f i f t h s of high school pupils graduate from high school, there

i s need t o provide means t o make these young adults employable, whether they a r e



graduates o r not.



When the need of Arizona1s i n d u s t r i e s f o r trained manpower i s



so acute, these young people must be given every opportgnity t o get t r d n i n g and t o make good on jobs.



CELAFTER 1 1 1.



DISPARITTES I N E P O M h AMONG COUhTIES O ARIZOIJA M L Y ET F

It has been noted i n the preceding chapter t h a t employment i n trade and services



accounts for more than half of all gainfully employed persons i n Arizona i n 1957.



-. F Tcgether w i t h positions i n agriculture and manufacturina, the four a r i n c i a r l .C---



P---T-



ero~ins



cczprise three-fourths of the t o t a l employment.



A s would be expected frcm the



extreme variations i n concentration of population among counties, the extent of

E

P



eriploynent d i f f e r s markedly i n both quantity and type by regions of the State.

MAR I C OA C O h Y P UT



Again, Maricopa County has t h e bulk of employment, 48.64%. The d i s t r i b u t i o n

3f



employed persons by industries reveals a wide range. Distribution of Employment Among Industries Industry Service, includes Finance, Real Estate and Insurance Trade:- Wholesale and R e ------ -.- t a i l 1,Ianufacturing Agriculture Government : federal, s t a t e and l o c a l Transportat i.on, Comunicat i o n s , and Eb b l i c U t i l i t i e s Contract Con~ s t r u c t i o n Mining and Quarrying

-



Number Employed



Percentage of Countv Total



dJ97Vu



CL. L W



23; 200



16,600

14,000

10, 900 a . 7nn



13.62 9.74

8.22



6.40

c;



LO



Total



I

,



Trade and services provide 56$ of employment; with manufacturing and agriculture b u r - f i f t h s of a l l employed persons a r e accounted f o r .

mining i s seen t o be a negligible industry

If t h e number of persons employed

1S



I n terms of the labor force,



i n Maricopa County.



i n Maricopa County i n a p a r t i c u l a r industry



.-----z ---- --------ccmpared with the t o t a l employment f o r t h a t industrv i n Arizona. the cnncentrn" -



ion of business and industry i n Maricopa County i s further highlighted.

17



Varicopa County's Share of Statewide hploynent i n Industries Industry Number Employed Percentage of S t a t e Total i n Industry



k n u f acturing Trade: Wholesale and R e t a i l Contract Construction Service, includes Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 'Jkansportation, Communications, and Public U t i l i t i e s Government: federal, s t a t e , local Agriculture



10, goo



Maricopa County i s a l s o f i r s t among the counties i n acreage of cropland harvested



--



457,417 acres or 41.83% of the t o t a l .



It i s therefore not surprising t h a t



Y ~ r i c o p aCounty represents 41.06% of the 1958 assessed valuation of Arizona $538,674,654.00 of $l, 3 I 972,257 .OO f o r the e n t i r e State. l,



--



The Study of Manpower Requirements and Training Needs f o r the Phoenix labor market area, conducted by the S t a t e Rnployment Service, predicts a 58%increase i n t o t a l employment by 1961 over 1956. 245,200 i n 1961. Jobs w i l l increase from 170,400 i n 1957 t o Positions i n



Manufacturing w i l l more than double i t s employment.



trade establishments w i l l grow by



445,



i n construction by 68$, i n services by



4% 6.



" u findings indicate t h a t the g r e a t e s t proportional increase i n employment w i l l be Or



i n the semiprofessional occupations. year period



These w i l l show an increase of 103% i n the five-



...



Rnployment of s k i l l e d workers w i l l a l s o increase "$$



...



Our be f i l l e d



survey indicates t h a t there w i l l be 3,500 professional jobs t h a t w i l l & n frcm foreseeable additions t o t h e Phoenix labor force.



There w i l l be 2,000 semi-



professional jobs, 4,500 managerial and o f f i c i a l , 8,600 c l e r i c a l , 4,400 sales, and

I



7,800 s k i l l e d jobs f o r which t r a i n e d people w i l l be needed."

I8



PIT% COUNTY

i



Pima County ranks second among Arizona counties i n the number of persons employed



I



1



i n industries, with 68,800 i n 1957 or 19.645.



1 4



Service, includes Finance,



Transportation, Communications, and Public Utilities Government: federal, state, local



t



Ening and Quarrying Agriculture



Service and Trade comprise three-fifths of employment; with manufacturing and utilities (replacing agriculture among the top four industries) the fraction of the



in Arizona, the percentages of these with State totals for industries are of some icterest :



Insurance and Real Estate Vanufacturing Transportation, Communications, and Public Utilities Government: federal, state, local Ening and Quarrying Agriculture



28,600 900 ,0



23.26.



counties with 4.95% of the State's total. Again, as with Maricopa County, there

is close correspondence between percentage of cropland harvested and percentage

Of



the labor force within the county engaged in agriculture compared with the



State as a whole.



Not only has Pima County about one-fifth of Arizona's population Yinufacturing,



an6 similar fractions of the S t a t e ' s labor force i n Service, Qade,



F-ub1i.c U t i l i t i e s , and Contract Construction, Pima County likewise has 18.5%-@42,713,000.00--of the 1958 assessed valuation of Arizona.



I



The Study of Manpower Requirements and Training Needs f o r the Tucson labor market area, conducted by the S t a t e hployment Service, shows t h a t by 1961 employment i n manufacturing w i l l have increased



79% over 1956, i n services 5876, i n



construction 37$, with public u t i l i t i e s 35% and i n trade 32%.



In terms of existing i n s t i t u t i o n s f o r t r a i n i n g the Study notes:



"For every



hundred additional openings f o r drafismen, only 16 w i l l be f i l l e d from Arizona sources according t o present estimates. only 63% w i l l be trained locally. O the additionalbookkeepers required, f



Additional demand f o r secretaries w i l l exceed



the identifiable available supply by 65%while f o r stenographers , the additional number needed w i l l be 64%greater than the i d e n t i f i a b l e t r a i n i n g output. Only 58%



of the additional clerk-typis t s , and 27% of the additional salespersons required t o meet the 1961 demands w i l l be forthcoming from Arizona training f a c i l i t i e s PImL COUNTY Pinal County i s t h i r d i n rank order of populetion, employment and assessed valuation among Arizona ' s counties.

I t s 65,000 residents comprise 5.42% of the



."



S t a t e ' s population; i t s 18,700 employed persons i n



1957 were 5.34% of the t o t a l ;

i s 9.05% of Arizona1s



and Final County's 1958 assessed valuation of $ll8,677,925.50 t o t a l assessed valuation.



It i s of some i n t e r e s t t o note t h a t the percentage of



assessed valuation i s so much higher than the percentages of population and employment. One clue i s a g r i c u l t u r a l production. Pinal County with i t s 306,445 acres of



cropland harvested has 28.03% of the S t a t e ' s t o t a l i n t h i s industry; i t s rank i s second among the counties i n cropland under production. industry. Mining i s t h e other leading



16



Distribution of bployment Among Industries Industry Mining and Quarrying Service, includes Finance, Insurance and Real Zstate Agriculture Trade: Wholesale and R e t a i l Government: federal, s t a t e local Contract Construction Transportation, Communications, and Public U t i l i t i e s k n u f acturing Total Number hployed 4,700 4,700 4,500 1,900 1,100 800 Percentage of County Total 25 *13% 25 el3 24.~6 10.16



5 -89

4.28 3.74 1.60 100 .oo



3oO

18,700



700



Three-fourths of t h e labor force a r e engaged i n Nining, Agriculture, and Services. I n contrast t o Yiaricopa and Pima Counties, manufacturing i s negligible



~t present i n terms of employment opportunities.

Pinal County's Share of Statewide 33nployment i n Lndustries Industry Number Employed 4,700 4,500 4,700 800 1,100 700 1,900 Percentage of S t a t e Total i n Industry 28.48% 1 -08 1



Mining and Quarrying Agriculture Service, includes Finance, Insurance and Real Estate Contract Construction Government: federal, s t a t e , local Transportation, Communications, and Public U t i l i t i e s Trade: Wholesale and R e t a i l



3.96

4.15 3.51



3 815

3.02



Since agriculture andmining account f o r half t h e employment outside of businesses rendering trading area services, yearly turnover i s small and job opportunft i e s a r e limited. Communities a r e dispersed about Pinal County but two-thirds of t h e



Population i s found i n t h e Casa Grande-Coolidge-Eloy-Florence area within approximately a twenty-five mile radius about Casa Grandee



17



COCHISE COUNTY Cochise County ranks fourth i n Arizona i n population--49,0~0 or 4.08$--and f i f t h i n assessed valuation, $66,050,665.00 County has 15,100 employed i n industries. Distribution of bployment Among Industries Industry Service, includes Finance, Insurance and Real Estate Government : federal, s t a t e , local Mining and Quarrying Trade: Wholesale and R e t a i l Agriculture Vanuf acturing Contract Construction Transportation, Communications, and Public U t i l i t i e s Total 15,100 100 .OO Number Rnployed Percentage of County Total or 5.03% of the S t a t e t o t a l . Cochise



I n many respects Cochise C o u t y presents a well-balanced economic base d i s t r i b u t e d among business, mining, agriculture, and growing manufacturing, which o f f e r



905 of employment opportunities; 604'0 of the population i s located i n t h e BisbeeDouglas area but the farming communities, as a t Willcox, a r e growing a l s o . Cochise County's Share of Statewide Einployment i n Industries Industry Number Bnployed Percentage of S t a t e Total i n Industry



Mining and Quarrying Government: federal, s t a t e , local Agriculture Contract Construction Manufacturing Service, includes Finance, Insurance and Real Estate Transportation, Communications, and Public U t i l i t i e s Bade: Wholesale and R e t a i l



W A COUNTY N Yma County with 48,000 population--4.00$ of the S t a t e total--has three-



f o ~ r t h s i t s residents concentrated i n the Yuma trading and farming area. of



In



cropland harvested Yuma County stands a f t e r Naricopa and Pinal Counties with 123,853 acres, 11.33% of t h e S t a t e t o t a l . The three counties account f o r =ore than fourIn n e t assessed valuation i n 1556, Yurz



f i f t h s of farmland under crop production.



Zeunty with $55,454,639.00 has 4.2% of the S t a t e t o t a l . zre 5.076 of a l l employed.



Its 17,500 employed persons



Distribution of Ehployment Among Industries Number Eanployed Agriculture Service, includes Finance, Insurance and Real Estate Trade : Wholesale and R e t a i l Government: federal, s t a t e , Contract Construction Transportation, Communications, and Public U t i l i t i e s Vanuf acturing Nining and Quarrying 4,500 4,200 2,800 2,400 Percentage of County Total 25 071% 24.00



16 .SO 13-71 9 -14

2.86



1,600

1,400 500 100 17, 5co .



8 .OO

0.57



100 000



Agriculture, service and trade account f o r two-thirds of employment; manufacturing i s i n i t s infancy and mining i s negligible.



Yuma County's Share of Statewide FSnployment i n Industries

Industry Number Fnployed Percentage of S t a t e Total i n Industry 11.08% 8.29



Agriculture Contract Construction Government: federal, s t a t e , Bansportation, Communications, and Public U t i l i t i e s Trade: Wholesale and R e t a i l Service, includes Finance, Insurance and Real Estate



4,5co

1,600 2,400 1,400 2,800 4,200



7.66

6.31 4.45 3.54



Yuma County has a solidly based economy founded on agriculture but diversified by businesses--service, trade, and contract construction. Note-!he five counties already considered-kricopa, Pima, Pinal, Cochise, and Yuma-have more than three-fourths of the assessed valuation of the State, Eore than four-fifths of Arizona's population and employed persons, and more than nine-tenths of acreage in cropland harvested. Only one county, Greenlee, exceeds any of the foregoing in assessed valuation, due to mining properties. COCONINO COUNTY Coconino County is the leading county among the northern group in population

000 and employment, with 4 , 0 residents (recently augmented by dam construction



090 workers), or 3.33% of the State total, and 1 , 0 employed or 3.11% of the labor



force of Arizona.



Its assessed wealth of $45,198,193.00 is



3.45% of the entire



State. The population is heavily concentrated about Flagstaff with 22,000 residents. Distribution of Employment Among Industries Industry Service, includes Enance, Insurance and Real Estate Agriculture Trade: Wholesale and Retail Government: federal, state, local Iknufacturing Contract Construction Mining and Quarrying Transportation, Communications, and Public Utilities Total

1, 0 goo



Number Ehployed



Percentage of County Total



1 0e o o 0



Service and trade provide almost half of employment; with the addition of agriculture and government nearlythree-fourths of all employment is accounted for. Contract construction undoubtedly has occupied a much larger position among industries with cornencement of work on Glen Canyon Cam construction in the area.



The percentages of statewide employment in industries shared by Coconino County are small and not particularly significant for the statewide picture, so they have not been reproduced here--nor for its neighboring northern counties. YAVAPAI COUNTY Yavapai County slightly exceeds Coconino County in assessed valuation with $47,581,424.00 or 3 6 of the State total. Its population is 25,000 or 2.06% of .%



Arizona, with a heavy concentration of 16,500 in the Prescott trading area. Distribution of Employment Among Industries Industry Service, includes Finance Insurance and Real Estate Trade: Wholesale and Retail Agriculture Manufacturing Contract Construction Mining and Quarrying Government: federal, state local Transportation, Communications, and Public Utilities Total Number Ehployed Percentage of County Total



1,300 100 ,0 70 0 70 0



31.77'

11.36



600

600 500 5-68

1 0-00 0



880 ,0



I



Two-thirds of employment is concentrated in agriculture, service and --



APACE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES Apache and Navajo Counties are considered together for convenience. ' l e Ihy

b ~ ePopulations of 32,000 and 35,000 respectively--2 -67%and 2.9296.



In employ-



2ent they have comparable percentages of the State total--Apache 8,900 or 2.54$,



Navajo 9,000 or 2 5 % .7.

Or



The assessed valuation of Apache County is $ , 6 , 9 .CO 66811 or



1.27% and of Navajo County, $2O,610,015.00



15% .7.



Distribution of Eaployment Among Industries Apache County Industry Agriculture Service, includes Finance, Insurance and Real Estate Y~nufacturing Government: federal, s t a t e , local Transportation, Communications, and Public U t i l i t i e s Trade: Wholesale and R e t a i l Mining and Quarrying Contract Construction Total M H v COUNTY O 4E Mohave County has 9,000 inhabitants o r 0.75% of Arizona's populations; of these 7,000 r e s i d e i n or near Ungtmn. or 23 of the t o t a l .

Its assessed valuation i s $26,269,439.00



Navajo County Number bployed Per Cent County Total



Number Rnployed



Per Cent County Total



-



It i s the l e a s t populated county and has the smallest labor



force, 2,hO o r 0.69%. Distribution of Eaployment Among Industries Industry Government: federal, s t a t e local !bade: WholesaLe and R e t a i l Service, includes Finance, Insurance and Real Estate Agr iculture Transportation, Communications, and Public U t i l i t i e s Mining and Quarrying Contract Construction Ymufacturing Total Number bloyed Percentage of County lCotal



i



FIVE N R H R COUNTIES OTEN The f i v e northern counties combined--Apache, Coconino, llohave, Navajo, and Yavizai--have a labor force of 40,000 persons (ll.33$ of ~ r i z o n a ) with S t a t e percentages as follows : Distribution of Znployment h o c g Industries Ember Znployed service, includes Finance, Insurance and Resl Estate Agriculture Trade: Wholesale a d R e t a i l Government: federal, s t a t e i%nuf acturing Trans?ortation, Communications, and Public U t i l i t i e s Contract Construction Mining and Quarrying

SAn1'IIA

I



1

Percentage of S t a t e Total i n Industry 10 35% 22.46



!

i



L



'



12,300 9,200 4,500 4,500 3,200 2,700 2,000 1,600



7 -15



14.38 8.27 12.16 10.36 9 -70



muz



COUNTY



Santa Cruz County has 12,000 residents, or 1.00% of the t o t a l population of Arizona, of whoa 10,000 l i v e i n and around Nogales.

1.08% of the S t a t e t o t a l .



I t s labor force of 3,800 i s or



It ranks l a s t i n assessed valuation--@,537,106.00



0.65% of Arizona s valuation. i t s employed persons.



Trade and Service occupations engage t h r e e - f i f t h s of



Distribution of Eknployment Among Industries Industry Trade: Wholesale and R e t a i l Service, includes Finance, Insurance and Real Estate Government: federal, s t a t e , l o c a l Agriculture Contract Construction Mining and Quwrying Transportation, Communications, and Public U t i l i t i e s t&nufactur ing Number Zmployed 1,100 1,100 500 3co 300 200 200 100 3,800 23 Percentage of County Total

28



95%



28.95 1 3017 5.26 5.26 2.63



7 *89 7 -89



100 -00%



GREENLEE COUNTY

Greenlee County has 14,000 inhabitants, or 1.17$ of the t o t a l , of w o hm 11,500 cluster about Morenci and Clifton trading areas.

i s $77,068,907.00

1

,



Its assessed valuation



or 5.87% of t h e S t a t e ' s valuation i n 1958; Greenlee County thus



vs L ."2%. -.-..

.%



-



r



Z



ranks immediately a f t e r Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal Counties and before Cochise County i n valuation. I t s rank i n population and employment i s eleventh from the Mining i s the



top, however, with 4,500 employed or 1.28% of the labor force. principal industry. Distribution of Finployment Among Industries Number Einployed Mining and Quarrying S e m i ce includes Finance, Insurance and Real Estate Agriculture Manufacturing TYade: Wholesale and R e t a i l Government : federal, s t a t e local Contract Construction Transportation, Cmunications, and Public U t i l i t i e s



Percentage of County Total



,



Total O the 16,500 persons engaged i n Arizona i n f 1957 i n mining and quarrying, t h e majority was concentrated i n f i v e counties as already noted in the instances of four of these: Note on Mining Elnployment Number in Mining Percentage of S t a t e Total 28.48% 16.36 15075



County Pinal Gila Greenlee Pima Cochise



4,700

2,700 2,500 2,400 2,000



14.54



12.12



The five counties account f o r 14,300 persons employed i n mining, o r nearly 87% of the t o t a l .



24



G I N CCTJNTY



Gila County has 28,000 people, 2.33% of the S t a t e t o t a l , of whom three-fourths reside i n t h e Globe-Miami trading area.



Its l a b o r force of 7,700 i n 1957 was con-



centrated i n mining and service occupations; t h e 7,700 i s 2.20% of Arizona's l a b o r force. I t s 1958 assessed valuation i s $35,991,690.00 o r 2.74% of t h e S t a t e a s a



whole; i t s rank nintn. Distribution of Employment Among Industries Number Employed Mining and Quarrying Service, includes Finance, Insurance and Real Estate Trade : Wholesale and R e t a i l k n u f a ct u r i n g Government: federal, s t a t e Transportation, Communications, and Public U t i l i t i e s Agriculture Contract Construction 2,700 2,300 900 600 600 300 200 100 7,700 GRAHAM C U T O NY Graham County has 13,000 o r 1.08% of t h e S t a t e ' s population, with 12,000 residents i n the Safford-Thatcher trading area.

I s also 1.08% of t h e S t a t e ' s labor force.

Or



Percentage of County Total



35 -06%

29 087 u.69



7 079

7-79

2.60 1-30 100 .oo



3 *go



Its employed population of 3,800



The assessed valuation i s $22,476,058.00



0.95% of t h e Arizona t o t a l . Distribution of Ehployment Among Industries Number Employed Agriculture Service, includes Finance, Insurance and Real E s t a t e B a d e : Wholesale and R e t a i l Government: federal, s t a t e , :+knuf t u r i n g ac bKning and Quarrying Contract Construction Transportation, Communicat i o n ~ ,and Public U t i l i t i e s 25 1,300 1,200 600 300 100 100 100 100 3,800 Percentage of County Total 34.2174



31 58 15 79

2.63 2.63 2.63 2.63 100 000



7 089



Just as the principal mining counties are Pinal, Gila, Greenlee, and Cochise, so agriculture is importantly represented in the labor force of ten counties; Note on Agricultural hployment County lhricopa Pinal Yuma Apache Navajo Pima Cochise Coconino Graham Yavapai The first five counties account for three-fourths of the labor force in agriculture; the ten total 39,500 persons or more than 97$ of the total. Ehployed at Agriculture Per Cent of State Total of 40,600



CHAFTER IV. ARIZONA'S CRISIS I N EDUCATION B Y N T E HIGH SCHOOL EOD H



The opening chapter of t h i s r e p o r t d e a l t with t h e s i z e and d i s t r i b u t i o n of population throughout t h e S t a t e . The growth of numbers of high school students



and graduates was projected t o 1965.



A second chapter summarized t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n



o f employment among i n d u s t r i e s and pointed out Che urgent needs of t r a i n e d man-



power t o supply t h e l a b o r force required.



This has been followed by a county-by-



c o i i ~ t yexamination of manpower use together with assessed wealth and population. TaJeelth i s evanescent; it must constantly be created anew by productive workers md machines. I n order t o maintain assessed valuations and t o expand business



enterprise, it i s imperative t h a t young people be educated i n t h e advancing technologies so t h a t t h e y may work at jobs which business and i n d u s t r y f i n d necessary f o r production. The question i s what opportunities f o r t r a i n i n g must be

1



nade available and by what means can t h e t r a i n i n g be achieved with economy and



? i



I



According t o t h e U. S. Bureau of t h e Census t h e growth of t h e college-age

i



Foup of Arizona (18-24 years) shows t h e g r e a t e s t percentage gains for t h e period 1950-1970 of any S t a t e , 295%. By i n t e r v a l s t h e projected numbers a r e a s follows:



I



80,ooo



104,000



132,oco



178,000



236,000



The corresponding percentage increase f o r t h e United S t a t e s i s only



164%. These

Some



numbers include young people i n college, at work, and i n t h e armed services. have not graduated from high school. Some have married and a r e keeping homes.



accelerating demands f o r t r a i n i n g manpower f o r business and industry, t h e s t a t e ment of The P r e s i d e n t ' s Committee on Education Beyond t h e High School, i n i t s Second Report, July, 1957, assumes almost ominous significance: 27



"The needs and demands of individuals and of society i n the next 10 t o 1 5 years w i l l require great expansion of t h e o v e r a l l capacity of e x i s t i n g colleges and u n i v e r s i t i e s and of other post-high school i n s t i t u t i o n s , with improvements rather than s a c r i f i c e of quality. Greater d i v e r s i t y and a c c e s s i b i l i t y of educational opportunities w i l l also be needed.



.....



"Without realizing it w have become a 'society of students.' e More than 40 million of us--one-quarter of the Nation--are enrolled i n formal education programs. " O the 1958 high school graduates, the reports of high school principals show f the following percentages expected t o enter college t h i s f a l l semester: Number of High School Graduates

Graham Gila Mohave Maricopa Yuma Apache Yavspai Coconino Pinal Greenlee Cochise Santa Cruz Pima Navajo



Percentage



For Arizona statewide, e n t e r college.



41% of



the 8,159 graduates were taking active steps t o



It i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o note i n passing t h a t t h e counties with per-



centages of students continuing a t college above the State average were i n general those served by Eastern Arizona Junior College, Arizona S t a t e College a t Flagstaff, Phoenix College, and Arizona State University a t Tempe. a t Tucson, of course, drew widely throughout t h e State. The University of Arizona Of students reported by



iI



I



E



t h e i r principals as entering college t h i s year, 33.72% were going t o Arizona State University, 21.57% t o the University of Arizona, 8.@i t o Arizona State College, and 195 intended t o go out of s t a t e t o college.

I



:.

f



4%

* : :

a>



1



3



t.

e



In terms of t h e problem of t r a i n i n g manpower so urgently needed by Arizona's expanding economy, the three- f i f t h s t h i s year 28



? 2



not entering college o r junior college become of concern; there are 4,800 of then. Within a five-year period, with the known growth i n s i z e of graduating classes M e d i a t e l y ahead, there w i l l be 28,000 of these high school graduates aged 18-22 years not entering college, unless more motivation and opportunity a r e provided them. The market f o r unskilled and semiskilled labor cannot absorb them; somehow



they must be made i n t o contributing members of t h e labor force.

A segment of t h e problem i s the f u r t h e r schooling, f o r semiprofessional and



s k i l l e d occupations, of young people who have not been completing high school.

A s the labor market tightens f o r unskilled and semiskilled laborers, many of these



mzy seek t r a i n i n g t o hold on t o t h e i r jobs o r t o obtain new ones requiring some additional education. I f the eighthgrade graduates of June, 1953, a r e compared with twelfth graders of June, 1957, it i s seen t h a t there occurs a considerable percentage of dropouts. The actual number i s even greater than the percentage shows since in-migration t o Counties has added t o the o r i g i n a l numbers of eighth grade graduates as they progressed through high school. For the State as a whole the twelfth grade



membership i s only 65.17% of the eighth grade graduates of four years e a r l i e r .

I n terms of numbers, t h i s means 4,200 young people not accounted for.



Although



none of these can be admitted t o college, junior college could a s s i s t them t o obtain some t r a i n i n g . Two thousand of them resided i n Maricopa County, 360 i n



Pima County, and 300 i n Pinal County.



These 4,200 were the dropouts from the graduating c l a s s of 1957.



Within a



five-year period, there w i l l be more than 25,000 non-high school graduates (aged



18-24) l i v i n g i n Arizona.



Together with the graduates not continuing a t college,



they constitute a pool of 50,000 men and women who need t o be made useful and effective workers i n business and industry.



An i l l u s t r a t i o n f o r the need of t r a i n i n g young people i n simpler technologies

C



and s k i l l s i s provided by establishments and industries r e l a t e d t o agriculture and food handling. The Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Arizona,



supplies t h e following s t a t i s t i c s of number of employees i n various food industries: Type of Establishment R e t a i l food stores Assemblers of farm products Dairy Processing Distribution of edible farm products Bakery products Grocery, wholesale food products Vegetable and animal o i l manufacturing Meat packing houses Beverages manufacturing Grain m i l l products Canned and frozen foods manufacturing Miscellaneous food manufacturing plants Total 14,871 Number of Employees



Job vacancies occasioned by e ~ a n s i o n market and manufacturing, separation from of job, retirement, and death approximate 10%per m u m . Replacements require the



*

-+g



A



&,



preparation of 1,500 persons yearly t o obtain i n i t i a l employment i n these industries. Another f i v e thousand people currently are employed i n other r e l a t e d a g r i c u l t u r a l industries: lumber snd wood products, cotton ginning and warehousing, grain and feed handling, and farm equipment and supplies merchandising, including f e r t i l i z e r s , insecticides, and fungicides. Fev of these jobs require professional t r a i n i n g but The agri-business occupations c a l l for



nearly a l l have s k i l l and technical aspects. 2,000 t r a i n e d young people yearly.



I f t h e current 40% of high school graduates entering college remained constant over the next seven years t o 1965, the already v i s i b l e annual increases would mean t h a t nearly f i v e thousand young people w i l l be seeking admission t o t h e S t a t e ' s present f i v e i n s t i t u t i o n s i n the f a l l of t h a t year.

If only undergraduates f o r the



four-yeax period be considered, and disregarding entrants frcm out of State, the numbers of native high school graduates t o be accommodated f o r four-year courses 30



w i l l grow from 15,CCO i n 1961 t o 20,000 i n 1965.



To care f o r Arizona's youth C o r e The two U n i v e r s i t i e s and



w i l l c o n s t i t u t e a problem i n provision of f a c i l i t i e s .



S t a t e College, however, have a l s o graduate and p r o f e s s i o n a l school r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s which irmensely complicate t h e i r problems i n p l a n t and s t a f f . Should even h a l f of t h e annual crop of high school graduates begin t o seek college entrance, t h e corresponding numbers t o be accommodated by 1961 and 1965 become 18,000 and 25,OCO respectively. Although entrance standards may be made



xore s t r i n g e n t , Arizona cannot escape r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r preparing t h e s e young 2eople f o r occupations. The d e s i r e s of youth and t h e i r p a r e n t s cannot be ignored;



and n e i t h e r can t h e demands of Arizona's expanding a g r i c u l t u r a l and i n d u s t r i a l ertterprises f o r t r a i n e d workers be evaded. The pool of college-age young people,



18-24 years, which w i l l be 1'j0,000 i n 1965, w i l l e i t h e r be a drag upon t h e economy or f i t t e d t o contribute t o t h e wealth of t h e S t a t e , depending upon how f u l l y t h e i r t r a i n i n g needs a r e met. The h e a r t of t h e i s s u e i s provision of educational



opportunity t o maintain prosperous business and p r i v a t e e n t e r p r i s e o r t o court the p e r i l of becoming a welfare s t a t e . The t a s k facing t h e two U n i v e r s i t i e s and t h e S t a t e College i n accommodating g r e a t l y increased numbers o f e n t r a n t s i s twofold. There i s an i n i t i a l problem of



3rOviding i n s t r u c t i o n a l staff and student s t a t i o n s i n classrooms and l a b o r a t o r i e s . more serious problem i s t o provide q u a l i t y of f a c u l t y and of i n s t r u c t i o n t o zuch l a r g e r enrollments. The administrations a t a l l t h r e e i n s t i t u t i o n s have been



d i l i g e n t i n t r y i n g t o assess a n t i c i p a t e d student increases and t h e i r meaning f o r expanded s t a f f and f a c i l i t i e s . Combined enrollments a t t h e t h r e e i n s t i t u t i o n s



Offering baccalaureate degrees provide sharply increasing enrollment p r o j e c t i o n s b e d i a t e l y ahead. S t a t i s t i c s i n d i c a t e t h a t i n t h e school year 1957-58, 17,160



Students were enrolled i n t h e s e t h r e e i n s t i t u t i o n s . The higher i n s t i t u t i o n s of Arizona r e p o r t f a l l enrollments, 1958, t o 'ce * l > e o l - - ~ n i v e r s i of Arizona, 1 , ~ c o ;Arizona S t a t e University, 9,708; and t~ 0 31



Arizona State College, 1,393. f o r 1959-60, 21,900.



The predicted enroUment f o r 1958-59 was 19,200, and



The University of Arizona and Arizona State University each

.w



e n r o l l s approximately 10,000 regular students i n undergraduate and graduate programs, Estimates are t h a t t h i s figure w i l l increase 50% within seven years; and double i n f i f t e e n years. Arizona State University has experienced enrollment increases Projection of these trends



approximating 25% i n each of t h e p a s t three years. points toward enrollments exceeding 30 ,OCO by 1965.



Two factors d i f f e r e n t i a t e enrollment projections a t Tempe and Tucson.

i s a t t h e epicenter of an explosive s i t u a t i o n i n population growth.



Tempe



Nearly one-



half of t h e present population of the State resides within Phoenix' greater metropolitan area. Immigration figures indicate t h a t approximately 70% of newly Undoubtedly,



acquired c i t i z e n s of the State are seeking residence i n t h i s same area.



t h e S a l t River Valley w i l l continue as the population, i n d u s t r i a l , and trade center f o r Arizona. Surveys of higher education show t h a t t h e majority of college and u n i v e r s i t y students attend colleges and u n i v e r s i t i e s which a r e close t o home, due l a r g e l y t o financial circumstances.

It i s l o g i c a l t o expect a continuation of t h e large



percentage of students who attend Arizona State University; at present, threequarters of i t s student body are residents of Maricopa County. What i s t r u e regarding enrollments a t Arizona S t a t e University i s also evident f o r t h e junior college a t Phoenix. I n t h e ten-rear i n t e r v a l between 1948



1



and 1957 t h e number of high school students i n Phoenix Union High School D i s t r i c t increased more than 100%. I n the l a s t five years the d i s t r i c t has grown on t h e average of 1,182 high school students per year. enrollments by 2,090, a 15% growth i n one year.

i



I n 1956-57 t h e d i s t r i c t increased

A s t h e preponderant majority of



Phoenix College students comes from t h e union high school d i s t r i c t , i t s enrollment predictions r e f l e c t these trends. Estimates f o r Phoenix College a r e : 2,400



students f o r 1959-60, 2,600 f o r 1960-61, and 2,809 for 1961-62. exceed 3,000 by the following year.



Enrollments should



Collegiate i n s t i t u t i o n s renioved from t h e c e n t e r s of abundant population and eccelerated growth r e v e a l a d i f f e r e n t p i c t u r e . Arizona S t a t e College a t Flagsta'f



has had approximately one-eighth a s many students as e i t h e r of t h e i n s t i t u t i o n s

az Tempe o r Tucson.



I t s 1956-57, 1957-58, and 1958-59 f a l l enrollments numbered



1,098, 1,142, and 1,393 respectively. Two f a c t o r s may a c c e l e r a t e growth, however, namely, projected expansions i n

t h e c u r r i c u l a r offerings, p a r t i c u l a r l y a t t h e lower d i v i s i o n and a t t h e graduate



levels, and t h e hipending population developments due t o construction work on the upper Colorado River. Should f u r t h e r developments i n t h e c u r r i c u l a r o f f e r i n g s



ar,d expanded dormitory accommodations a t F l a g s t a f f m a t e r i a l i z e , i t s a t t r a c t i o n t o larger numbers of students within and without t h e S t a t e should become apparent. Eastern Arizona Junior College i s c l o s e l y i d e n t i f i e d with an a r e a o f r u r a l --\rizona. students. I n 1957-58, t h e i n s t i t u t i o n had i t s l a r g e s t enrollment i n h i s t o r y , 315 About e0$ of t h e student body comes from t h e f i v e counties of Gila,



Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, and Navajo. Since more than one-half of t h e college ' s 1957-58 student body was from areas outside Graham County, dormitory f a c i l i t i e s a r e important t o s u s t a i n i t s WPulation. Careful planning f o r use of present classroom f a c i l i t i e s w i l l



=cccmodate approximately 450 students. Assuming t h a t t r e n d s i n develo~mentp r e s e n t l y e x i s t i n g i n other i n s t i t u t i o n s

Of



higher education w i l l continue, Eastern Arizona Junior College can look f o r -



ward t o enrollments approximating 400 i n 1960, 600 i n 1965, and 900 by 1970.



%auld Arizona's four-year i n s t i t u t i o n s f i n d it necessary t o l i m i t admissions i n

pdture years, Eastern Arizona Junior College's enrollment might be expected t o



CHAFTER V. THE JUNIOR COLIEGE AS A WAY O FROVIDIKG EDUCATION B Y N TEiE HIGH SCHOOL F EOD

If high school graduates are projected t o 1964-1965, e i t h e r by employing the



annual growth r a t e over t h e three-year period, 1954-1955 t o 1957-1958, o r by using the annual growth r a t e i n high school Average Daily Attendance f o r the t e n years, 1947-1948 t o 1957-1958, the numbers range from a low of 12,000 t o a high of 14,000. (should the proportion of high school students who ccmplete high school increase, the t o t a l of graduates i n 1965 would be correspondingly enlarged; h i t h e r t o only sixty t o seventy per cent of the entering ninth year pupils have graduated four



The two u n i v e r s i t i e s and s t a t e college together with the two junior colleges have been accomodating f o r t y t o f i f t y percent of these i n any single year. The



University of Arizona has provided s t a t i s t i c s of entrants which i l l u s t r a t e t h i s



Number of Arizona High School Graduates Entering UA 478 617 1,038



Percentage of Total Arizona High School Graduates Entering UA 12.48 1 97 1 13.26



er the p a s t f i v e years t h e percentage of Arizona high school graduates entering



University of Arizona has averaged 13.10% of the t o t a l number each year.



In



his connection it should be noted t h a t the r a t e of shrinkage between freshman and



'Qhomore enrollments has averaged 18.7% over t h e five-year period.

OSt



This means t h a t



One-fifth of entering students were not prepared o r not s u f f i c i e n t l y motivated



'Ontinue University studies ; o r t h a t the University did not provide curricula ope of t h e i r i n t e r e s t s and a b i l i t i e s . The experience of t h e University



Arizona could be duplicated at other four-year i n s t i t u t i o n s . It seems c l e a r , theree present number of higher i n s t i t u t i o n s w i l l have t o undergo great 34



expansion of s t a f f and f a c i l i t i e s i n order t o accommodate merely the normal growth of entrants i f the same percentages of graduates of high schools a r e t o be accommodated. I f the higher i n s t i t u t i o n s should attempt t o a t t r a c t other students whose



objectives a r e not the usual curricula, much diversification of s t a f f and p l a n t must occur. The problem of a v a i l a b i l i t y of educational opportunity beyond high school i s further complicated by the necessity of a c c e s s i b i l i t y t o high school graduates and others of the college-age group. The unequal d i s t r i b u t i o n of high school popu-



l a t i o n i n Arizona does not make it possible t o provide a wide range of offerings t o students through off-campus centers who l i v e i n l o c a l i t i e s remote from populous counties. Decentralization of f a c u l t y and f a c i l i t i e s must remain l i m i t e d f o r reasons



of economy and maintenance of quality of instruction. O the other hand, the needs of Arizona business and industry f o r t r a i n e d mann power do not require i n the instances of many occupations t h a t students complete a four-year curriculum i n order t o be prepared f o r i n i t i a l employment.

It has already



been noted t h a t s i x t y per cent of the workers required f o r the labor force i n 1961 can be equipped f o r employment through t r a i n i n g two-years or l e s s i n length. The



i n s t i t u t i o n which has been developed i n the United S t a t e s over the p a s t half century t o perform the dual f'unctions of giving occupational t r a i n i n g and t h e beginning two years of university and college preparation i s the public junior college. The Report of the Higher Bducation Commission f o r the S t a t e of I l l i n o i s , i n



1957, " I l l i n o i s looks t o the Future i n Higher Education," concisely summarizes the

reasons f o r expanding the junior college system i n t h a t s t a t e . t h a t the community or junior college can do t h e following:

1 Provide additional educational opportunities f o r a l l high school . graduates.



The Report s t a t e s



Comment: Junior college i s located close enough t o home, farm, business and industry t h a t students may work while they learn; junior college t r a i n i n g f o r occupations can be varied i n terms of community needs.



35



2 Reduce costs t o the individual and the family f o r higher . education.



Comment: The cash outlay f o r board and room away from hcme i s eliminated; many incidental costs of campus l i v i n g a r e reduced or obviated. 3. Enroll more students of the top half of high school graduating classes who a r e not now continuing formal education. Comment: A Maryland study i n 1955 showed t h a t of students graduating from high schools of Varyland (1) l e s s than threefourths of those with I.Q.'s of 120 or above entered college; ( 2 ) about half of those graduates with I Q ' . . s of 110 o r above entered college; and (3) l e s s than h a l f of those with I.Q. ' s of ll0-119 entered college.



4 .



Relieve freshman and sophomore congestion a t four-year institutions



.



Comment: Junior college screens and d i v e r t s t o other curricula students who may become an a t t r i t i o n s t a t i s t i c as freshmen a t higher i n s t i t u t i o n s . The Junior College a l s o frequently enables students t o f ' u l f i l l p r e r e w i s i t e s f o r pursuing university curricula which were ommitted i n high school o r poorly achieved, when such students mature i n purpose.



5.



Meet the needs of agriculture, business, and industry locally, regionally, and statewide, Comment: Junior college i n i t s occupational courses i s not r e s t r i c t e d by c r e d i t s o r degrees from providing as short or long t r a i n i n g a s may be needed i n a s p e c i f i c s i t u a t i o n t o supply t r a i n e d employees; the scope of t r a i n i n g may vary from year t o year a s labor market demands change.



6.



Reduce S t a t e costs f o r first and second years of higher education. Comment: "A Restudy of t h e Needs of California i n Higher Education," i n 1955, reported that, "Two-thirds of the f i n a n c i a l support of California junior colleges comes from d i s t r i c t and county taxation."



The Wall S t r e e t Journal, September 30, 1958, s t a t e d i n an a r t i c l e about public junior colleges: "The (junior colleges ) a r e opening up opportunities f o r thousands of students who, f o r reasons of finances, geography, o r simple diffidence, normally would not continue t h e i r educations p a s t the high school l e v e l . And the schools a r e absorbing students who want t o continue p a s t high school but are happy t o s e t t l e f o r two years of training.



.....



," +



A.



"Many businessmen, too, a r e c l o s e l y following t h e junior college movement; they look t o t h e schools a s a source of much needed t e c h n i c a l personnel t o supplenent t h e i r full-fledged engineers and s c i e n t i s t s .



-



.....



c



&-



E 3



ii



"For t h e two-year 'graduatest, t h e junior college o f f e r s an 'associate i n a r t s 1 degree showing t h e student has had extensive t r a i n i n g f o r a p a r t i c u l a r vocation. I n close cooperation with business and industry, t h e l o c a l school board -- which has ultimate a u t h o r i t y as t o what courses w i l l be offered -- determines which courses can be given t h a t would b e s t serve t h e needs of t h e d i s t r i c t . " I n 1940 t h e C a l i f o r n i a S t a t e Department of Zducation studied t h e percentages o f public junior college students enrolled i n semiprofessional o r terminal c u r r i c u l a ; t h e s e junior colleges then were of a s i z e comparable t o t h a t which junior colleges might approach i f established i n Arizona outside congested c e n t e r s .

A few examples



w i l l demonstrate t h e i n t e r e s t of students i n occupational t r a i n i n g :

Full-time Enrollment 1939- 1940 e44 760 1,112 324 Percentage i n Terminal Curricula



Junior College Bakersfield Chaffey ( ~ n t a r i o ) ( a l s o 13.2% i n agriculture ) Fullerton Taft



The junior college issue has been an object of searching study i n many s t a t e s i n recent years. The f i r s t p u b l i c junior college was e s t a b l i s h e d i n 1902 a t J o l i e t ,



I l l i n o i s , with t h e encouragement of William Rainey Harper, t h e n President of t h e University of Chicago.

By 1982 t h e number of junior colleges i n t h e United S t a t e s



he& grown t o 207 with a combined enrollment of 16,031 students.



I n 1930 t h e



number of junior colleges had more than doubled with enrollments, more than four times t h a t of 1922. The 1958 Junior College Directory published by t h e American



Association of Junior Colleges l i s t s 641 junior colleges i n t h e forty-nine s t a t e s , o f which 374 a r e public, with a t o t a l enrollment of 775,181 students i n 1957. Cali-



f o r n i a l e a d s with 63 public junior colleges; 70$ of a l l college students i n t h e f i r s t



37



two years attend junior colleges, the remainder being distributed among campuses of the University of California, S t a t e Colleges, and p r i v a t e colleges and u n i v e r s i t i e s . Texas with 35 public junior colleges, Nw York with 17, and I l l i n o i s and Michigan e each with 16 a r e likewise growing rapidly i n enrollments. Among the studies conducted by S t a t e commissions which have been examined



i n the course of t h i s survey p a r t i c u l a r mention must be made of the following:

1 A Restuay of the Needs of California i n Higher Education, prepared f o r . the Liaison Committee of the Regents of the University of California and the California S t a t e Board of Education, California S t a t e Department of Sducation, 1955.



2 A Study of the Need f o r Additional Centers of Public Higher Education i n . California, likewise prepared f o r the Liaison Committee, 1957.



3.



The Community Junior College i n Florida's Future, Report t o the S t a t e Board of Education by the Community College Council, Florida S t a t e Department of Iducation, 1957. I l l i n o i s Looks t o the Future i n Higher Education, Report of the Higher Education Commission t o the Governor and Legislature of I l l i n o i s , 1957. The Comruunity College i n Michigan, S t a f f Study No. 1 Michigan Legisla, t i v e Study Committee, June, 1957.



4 .

5.



O p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t t o the Arizona Junior College Survey Committee have been f the c r i t e r i a employed i n these studies t o p r e d i c t the p o t e n t i a l junior college enrollment i n terms of full-time equivalent students within an area contemplating the establishment of a junior college, and the minimum such enrollment deemed e s s e n t i a l t o provide courses and curricula of range and quality.

A frequent



Criterion has been one-fourth the combined enrollment of grades nine through twelve in the high schools whose graduates might attend junior college if one were established. An objection t o t h i s method of predicting p o t e n t i a l junior college e n r o l l -



ment i s t h a t it f a i l s t o allow f o r the dropout of high school pupils midway through high school. Accordingly junior college potentials calculated as one-fourth of the



t o t a l high school population, grades nine through twelve, may not be borne out by actual enrollments.



The experience of California has been that a more r e a l i s t i c predictive method



i s t o add t h e a c t u a l high school graduates f o r two successive years and c a l c u l a t e 42.5s of t h a t sum, t o give t h e p o t e n t i a l junior college enrollment f o r t h e followi n g year.

"A Study of t h e Need f o r Additional Centers of Public Higher Education,"



page 26, s t a t e s : "In t h e s t a t e a s a whole i n t h e f a l l of 1955, t h e counties with junior colleges enrolled 42.5% of t h e two preceding y e a r s ' high school graduates." When junior colleges have been long established and a r e well located about a county, t h e percentage may g r e a t l y exceed t h e p r e d i c t e d f i g u r e . Thus, Orange County i n



C a l i f o r n i a , with t h r e e junior colleges, e n r o l l s 75$ i n s t e a d of 42.576, Sonoma and Napa Counties i n another p a r t of t h e s t a t e e n r o l l 6211 and 60$ r e s p e c t i v e l y .

It



seems evident, therefore, t h a t 42.511- -or LO$ f o r convenience--provides a conservat i v e p r e d i c t i o n of p o t e n t i a l full-time equivalent junior college students. I n some s t a t e s junior colleges have keen e s t a b l i s h e d when t h e p o t e n t i a l e n r o l l -



f a c u l t y o f such a junior college with a mere 200 students would be t o o small t o



il



histrainingandexperiencehadequippedhimtohandle successfully.



Second-year



The Cornittee, a f t e r c a r e f u l d e l i b e r a t i o n , recommends t h a t t h e permissible



I



A newly e s t a b l i s h e d junior college should expect t o achieve an enrollment of 400



p r e d i c t i o n of p o t e n t i a l enrollment a r e applied t o t h e s e v e r a l counties of Arizona.



39



CHAFTER V I .

JUNIOR COLLEGE POSSIBILITIES I N ARIZONA



I n t h e preceding chapter the functions of junior college have been outlined and c r i t e r i a f o r prediction of p o t e n t i a l enrollment suggested.

A junior college



combines i n one i n s t i t u t i o n occupational t r a i n i n g i n length two years or l e s s and curricula p a r a l l e l t o lower division courses (of college freshman and sophomore l e v e l s ) i n four-year i n s t i t u t i o n s . This dual purpose permits students t o be



guided toward courses commensurate with t h e i r a c t u a l a b i l i t i e s and aptitudes. Those who successfully complete college p a r a l l e l courses a t junior college commonly t r a n s f e r with junior standing t o t h e upper divisions of colleges and universities t h a t grant degrees of bachelor of a r t s , of science, of education, or another f i e l d . The students who engage i n occupational t r a i n i n g usually seek O course, i n numerous f



employment at t h e conclusion of t h e i r vocational studies.



classes students with both objectives associate i n studies equally useful f o r transfer o r terminal purposes; examples might be English composition, United States h i s t o r y and government, and physical education--or a r t appreciation and



The occupational t r a i n i n g i n which a junior college may i n t e r e s t i t s students

Ordinarily varies with the l o c a l i t y and t h e business and industry of t h e region vhich afford employment t o t h e junior college graduates.

The number and v a r i e t y



be provided a t a given time can only be determined through the counsel of



local advisory committees upon which businessmen, i n d u s t r i a l i s t s and labor

leaders have more than nominal representation. '@quires t o be l o c a l l y designed.

On



Each occupational curriculum



Frequently students obtain p r a c t i c a l experience



the Job during the course of t h e i r studies, e i t h e r by work experience education,



apprenticeship, o r other means. 40



Adequate resources, of l i b r a r y , of laboratory f a c i l i t i e s , of shop equipment and space f o r student s t a t i o n s , a r e n e c e s s i t i e s i f a junior college i s t o i n s t r u c t thoroughly i n vocational or pre-professional subjects. t a x base of assessed valuation i s most r e q u i s i t e . After consideration of t h e experience of many s t a t e s with systems of public junior colleges, and mindful of the r i s i n g c o s t s of c a p i t a l outlay, i n s t r u c t i o n a l c o s t s , maintenance and operation, t h e Junior College Survey Committee has determined t o recommend t h a t s i x t y millions of d o l l a r s of assessed valuation be t h e minimum permissible f o r a p o l i t i c a l subdivision t o be authorized t o e s t a b l i s h a junior college. I n C a l i f o r n i a where public junior colleges have achieved s t a t u s with To assure t h e s e a broad



higher i n s t i t u t i o n s and l a r g e student enrollments, t h e p r a c t i c e of t h e S t a t e Board of Education has been t o i n s i s t upon one hundred millions of d o l l a r s of assessed valuation f o r a d i s t r i c t t o be approved t o inaugurate junior college services. I f t h e c r i t e r i o n of $60,000,000.00 of assessed valuation be applied t o



counties of Arizona, i n terms of 1958 n e t valuation, f i v e counties qualify: County Cochise Greenlee Mari copa Pima Pinal The f i v e counties comprise 79.51% of t h e assessed valuation of Arizona. Three Assessed Valuation Percentage of Arizona



o t h e r counties a r e approaching t h e s i x t y millions of d o l l a r s minimum i n assessed valuation: Coconino



--



$45,198,193,



Yavapai



--



$47,581,424,



and Yuma



--



$55,454,639



The t h r e e counties have 11.32$ of t h e S t a t e t o t a l .



In passing it i s of i n t e r e s t t o note t h a t only t h r e e high school d i s t r i c t s

meet t h e minimum c r i t e r i o n of $60,000,000 of assessed valuation: Phoenix Union



v i t h $338 millions, Tucson with $138 millions, and Morenci with $73 millions. Next a r e Scottsdale with $43 millions and Glendale Union with n e a r l y $40 millions.



41



Certain possible combinations of two counties may be mentioned:



Coconino-



Yavapai, $93 millions; Coconino-Navajo, $66 millions; Gila-Graham, $48 millions; and Graham-Greenlee, $89 millions. The prediction of p o t e n t i a l junior college enrollment f o r an area, i n terms of full-time equivalent students, may be approached i n two ways.

A s already noted,



a method frequently employed i s t o take one"-fourth of the high school population of grades nine through twelve.

The potential junior college enrollments obtained i n



t h i s way f o r the school-year 1957-1958 a r e shown i n t h e following t a b l e : County Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham Greenlee Mari c opa Mohave Navajo Pima Pinal Santa Cruz Y avapai One-fourth of grades 9-12



Yuma

It was previously noted t h a t t h i s method tends t o give an exaggerated f i g u r e since

dropout of pupils i n t h e i r progress through high school i s not f u l l y allowed f o r . Since a .unit of Average Daily Attendance measures t h e equivalent of a student i n attendance throughout t h e school year, t o take one-fourth of t h e A. D. A. of grades 9-12 w i l l y i e l d a more conservative measure. For t h e same 1957-1958 school



Year t h e p o t e n t i a l junior college enrollments by counties become:



County Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham Greenlee Mar icopa Mohave Navajo Pima Pinal Santa Cruz Yavapai Yuma



One-fourth of the High School A.D.A.



The more accurate measure of p o t e n t i a l full-time equivalent Junior college students i s found by calculating 40% of the s m of t h e graduates from high schools u f o r the past two consecutive years. I n rounded numbers the r e s u l t s f o r counties,



based upon 1956-1957 and 1957-1958, a r e given below: 40% of s m of u high school graduating classes



County Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham Greenlee M a r icopa Mohave Navaj o Pima Pinal Santa Cruz Yavapai Yma



If a p o t e n t i a l enrollment of 320 full-time equivalent students be taken a s



minimum f o r operation of a successful Junior college, with offerings both i n college p a r a l l e l and occupational t r a i n i n g courses, it i s seen t h a t Maricopa, Pima, and P i n a l Counties meet t h i s requirement, while Cochise and Yuma Counties a r e approaching



t h i s figure.



Using the one-fourth of high school students i n grades 9-12 or one-



fourth the high school t o t a l s of average daily attendance, confirms t h i s f a c t : Predicted Numbers of Junior College Students One- f ourth One-fourth graduates f o r high school high-school 1956-57 and 1957- 58 membership A. D A. .

40$ of s m of u



County Mari copa



Pima

Pinal Cochise



Yuma

Taking i n t o consideration the rapid annual growth r a t e s of increasing high school population and graduates, all of t h e f i v e counties s a f e l y qualify i n terms of potential junior college enrollment. These counties a l s o meet the $60 millions



minimum of assessed valuation with the exception of Yuma whose 1958 $55 millions probably w i l l reach two qualifications.



$60 millions shortly. N other single county meets these o

Two-county combinations with $60 millions or more of



assessed v d u a t i o n a r e Coconino-Yavapai (junior college potential 355), CoconinoNavajo (potential 310 students), and Graham-Greenlee ( ~ o t e n t i a l 245 students)



.



O t h e basis of projected high school graduates i n 1964-1965, t h e p o t e n t i a l n junior college enrollments by counties become: Junior College 1964-65 Potential Enrollment



County Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham Greenlee Maricopa Mohave Nava j o Pima Pinal Santa Cruz Y avapai Yuma



Again, the same five counties of Cochise, Maricopa, Pima, Pinal, and Yuma are the only individual counties which meet t h e 320-enrollment minimum. a r e conservative and may be exceeded. Attention now can t u r n t o the p a r t i c u l a r counties which qualify f o r considerat i o n of junior colleges.

C OCHISE C O h Y UT



These predictions



Although the population of Cochise County i s not concentrated i n one or two centers, within a 25-mile radius of Bisbee are t o be found Douglas and Tombstone; i n 1957-1958 the three d i s t r i c t s had 1,700 pupils i n high school and 300 graduates. Growth i s not rapid but has been steady. Since college opportunities a r e remote



from the high school graduates of the wea, consideration of junior college need should be given. Within t h e next year Cochise County should meet t h e qualificaAs already noted



t i o n s of assessed valuation and s u f f i c i e n t p o t e n t i a l enrollment.



38%of t h e employment i s i n service and trade; ~ d i p mining; and 10% i n agriculture. n

MARICOPA COUNTY

O f 3,990 high school graduates i n 1957-1958, t h e i r principals report t h a t



37% have entered higher i n s t i t u t i o n s i n Arizona and more than 8% have enrolled a t college outside t h e State. Yet 55$ have not continued t h e i r education. Within a



25-mile radius of downtown Phoenix are eleven of t h e county's fourteen high school d i s t r i c t s , w i t h present enrollment i n excess of 24,000. The resources of Phoenix



Junior College are already strained i n caring f o r present enrollments; a wider t a x base i s imperative. Maricopa County's population i s estimated t o increase by 57% between the but t h e predictions present and 1965. Phoenix may experience only a 19% g r o ~ h f o r Chandler are 38$, Mesa 474'0, Tempe 60$, Glendale 126$, and Scottsdale 226%.



Another junior college i s immediately needed, end probably a t h i r d by 1965, each t o be of the present s i z e of Phoenix College. The S t a t e Employment Service predicts by 1961 a 58% increase i n t o t a l employment over 1956 i n t h e Phoenix metropolitan area. employment. Manufacturing i s doubling i t s



Positions i n trade establishments w i l l grow by 445, i n construction by



68%; i n service occupations by 46%. The Employment Service observes:

"Our survey indicates t h a t there w i l l be 3,500 professional jobs t h a t w i l l not be f i l l e d from foreseeable additions t o the Phoenix labor force. There w i l l be 2,000 semiprof essionaJ. jobs, 4, 500 managerial and o f f i c i a l , 8,600 c l e r i c a l , 4,400 sales, and 7,800 s k i l l e d jobs f o r which t r a i n e d people w i l l be needed. "



-



PIMA C U T O NY

A junior college i n Pima County would a s s i s t t h e University of Arizona i n



screening away l o c a l high school graduates who are not ready t o undertake univers i t y studies or e l s e r e a l l y want other types of t r a i n i n g . The study by the Em-



ployment Service shows t h a t i n Pima County by 1961 employment i n manufacturing



w i l l have increased 79% over 1956, i n services 58%; i n construction 37%; with

public u t i l i t i e s 35%; and i n trade 32%. The report continues: "Additional demand f o r s e c r e t a r i e s w i l l exceed the i d e n t i f i a b l e available supply by 6576, only 58% of t h e clerk-typists, and 27% of t h e ddditional salespersons required t o meet t h e 1961 demands w i l l be forthcoming from Arizona training fa c i l i t i e s. "



...



Employment i n Pima County accounts f o r 20% of the S t a t e t o t a l of jobs i n contract construction, 23% of jobs i n manufacturing and public u t i l i t i e s , and



245 i n service occupations.



A junior college should emphasize t r a i n i n g f o r



Positions especially i n these vocational areas.



PIML COUNTY Pinal County q u a l i f i e s f o r a junior college i n terms of assessed valuation and meets the minimum of 320-full-time equivalent p o t e n t i a l enrollment. In a



25-mile radius about Casa Grande are Santa Cruz Union ( ~ l o y ) ,Maricopa, and Coolidge, with Florence another t e n m i l e s beyond; t h e pupil population of these high schools was 1,700 i n 1957-58 with 300 graduates. population reside i n the area. Two-thirds of the county's



Pinal County has 1 % employment statewide i n 1 of



agriculture and 28% of employment i n mining.

YUMA C U T O NY



Yuma County has a good prospect f o r supporting a junior college i n t h e near future; it w i l l shortly a t t a i n minimum qualifications i n both assessed valuation and p o t e n t i a l enrollment.

I t s distance from centers of higher learning j u s t i f y

O f l a s t year's high



caref'ul consideration of students' needs i n t h e l o c a l i t y . school graduates, 60% did not go on t o college. of t h e State t o t a l . occupations. EASTERN ARIZONA JUNIOR C OLUGE



Agricultural employment i s 1 % 1



Within t h e county 40% are employed i n trade and service



Eastern Arizona Junior College a t Thatcher provides a center f o r t r a i n i n g which serves not only Graham and Greenlee Counties but Gila, Navajo and Apache t o a considerable extent. Graham County by i t s e l f does not have a t a x base of



assessed valuation s u f f i c i e n t t o support t h e occupational curricula which the area would j u s t i f y .

A two-county d i s t r i c t of Graham and Greenlee Counties would



enable t h e junior college t o i n s t a l l f a c i l i t i e s much needed.



Legislation which



permitted the Junior college t o charge t h e a c t u a l per c a p i t a costs of instruction and operation f o r non-county students t o t h e counties of residence would provide means f o r Eastern Arizona Junior College t o serve t h e sparsely s e t t l e d eastern portion of t h e State more widely.



47



FIVE NORTHERN COUNTIES

The combined assessed valuation of Apache, Coconino, Mohave, Navajo, and Yavapai Counties i s $156 millions i n 1958; t h e i r population 141,000. pupils i n 1957-1958 were 4,625 and graduates 821. High school



The p o t e n t i a l enrollment i s



635 junior college students.



These a r e s c a t t e r e d , however, throughout an a r e a which F l a g s t a f f and P r e s c o t t a r e t h e l a r g e s t



comprises 53.71% of Arizona's t e r r i t o r y .



centers; t h e combined population 27% of a l l r e s i d e n t s i n t h e f i v e counties and 37%

o f the high school student t o t a l .



N junior college seems indicated f o r some years i n t h i s portion of Arizona. o Arizona S t a t e College a t Flagstaff i s t h e l o g i c a l i n s t i t u t i o n t o serve t h e area,

i n p a r t through off-campus centers e s t a b l i s h e d wherever need appears, and i n p a r t

by broadening offerings t o provide occupational t r a i n i n g .



The f a c i l i t i e s of high



schools might be u t i l i z e d a t night t o give junior college vocational courses under t n s t r u c t o r s attached t o t h e S t a t e College f o r t h e s e s p e c i f i c i n s t r u c t i o n s . 'Uthough a g r i c u l t u r e has been t h e leading industry i n terms of number of persons employed, contract construction, public u t i l i t i e s , and manufacturing promise greatly t o expand. SANTA CRUZ C U T O NY Since Santa Cruz County cannot support a junior college, should one be established i n Pima County, e i t h e r bus t r a n s p o r t a t i o n o r dormitory f a c i l i t y should

be considered t o enable graduates of t h e high schools at Nogales and elsewhere t o



avail themselves of opportunity f o r education beyond high school.



Although t h e



distance between Tucson and Nogales i s longer than d e s i r a b l e f o r a d a i l y bus t h e highway and c l i m a t i c conditions would make it possible t o t r a n s p o r t Students t o junior college. Public t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i s an a l t e r n a t i v e provided

I



and s t a t i o n s a r e favorable.



E



A s a public i n s t i t u t i o n a junior college must be maintained by a p o l i t i c a l



constituted boards of governors.



Some requirements must be specified t o make an



authorization as p a r t of t h e State system of public schools. must be determined f o r i n i t i a t i o n of i t s establishment.



Likewise procedures



A public junior college



requires financing t o acquire f a c i l i t i e s and t o o ~ e r a t e ; t h e r e f o r e , a power t o tax must reside i n some l e g a l l y constituted body, which often i s supplemented by State a i d and student t u i t i o n s as provided by law. There are many variations



among the s t a t e s with respect t o s t a t u t o r y provisions f o r these items but c e r t a i n Patterns a r e readily discernible when the l e g i s l a t i v e enactments a r e analyzed. Legislation of eighteen s t a t e s respecting junior colleges was examined; t h e selected s t a t e s were those whose public junior colleges comprise 55% of the nation's



California Colorado Florida' Georgia Iowa



Kansas Maryland Michigan Minnesota Montana



Nw York e Oregon Texas Utah Wyoming



Pennsylvania dnd Wisconsin were excluded since t h e i r "junior colleges" a r e extension centers of t h e i r respective State u n i v e r s i t i e s . The following t a b l e s summarize f o r t h e eighteen s t a t e s l i s t e d above t h e i r



1. The p o l i t i c a l subdivision authorized t o e s t a b l i s h junior colleges;

2.



the State agency responsible f o r authorization and supervision; t h e governing board of t h e d i s t r i c t maintaining junior colleges ;



3.



4. c r i t e r i a for establishment of d i s t r i c t t o maintain junior college;

5. State a i d f o r junior colleges;



6. d i s t r i c t taxation t o support junior colleges;

7. 8.

provisions f o r t u i t i o n and the charging of fees; and bonding limitations and debt service f o r c a p i t a l outlay. P o l i t i c a l Subdivision Authorized t o Maintain Public Junior Colleges Single School District

S ta t e

"I '



One or more Districts C ombined



One o r more Counties



County District, or Combination



State



jiil i i



?7/' i



;y~,~~ii !



California Colorado Florida Georgia Idaho Iowa Kansas Maryland Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Montana Nw York e Oregon Texas Utah Washington Wyoming I n a l l these s t a t e s but one a junior college i s established and maintained by a d i s t r i c t whose t e r r i t o r y includes a c i t y o r high school d i s t r i c t , two o r more such d i s t r i c t s , a county, or combination of counties. The exception i s UtaL which



ii



I!



1

1



ll~ll1

I



maintains junior colleges e n t i r e l y on a statewide b a s i s without respect t o the p o l i t i c a l subdivisions maintaining elementary and high schools. a state-maintained junior college i s a p o s s i b i l i t y I n Maryland also



/I1



I



,



b i z o n a law currently permits a high school d i s t r i c t , union high school d i s t r i c



r county t o be authorized t o conduct a junior college.

Control and supervision of junior colleges usually a r e shared between a S t a t e ency and a governing board of t h e l o c a l d i s t r i c t which maintains junior colleges. ject t o l e g i s l a t i v e direction, t h e State agency s e t s f o r t h p o l i c i e s and c r i t e r i a

r the establishment of a junior college d i s t r i c t , f o r i t s e l i g i b i l i t y t o p a r t i c i -



ate i n State aid, and f o r t h e approval of i t s courses of study. In a l l but four s t a t e s t h e S t a t e agency f o r control and supervision of junior colleges i s the State Board of Education o r i t s executive and administrative a r m s :

the State Superintendent of Public Instruction o r State Department of Education.



T o v m i a n t s a r e of considerable i n t e r e s t . w Regents i s t h e supervising agency.



In Georgia and new York t h e Board of



I n Mississippi and Wyoming a S t a t e Junior Colleg



Ccrtmission o r Community College Commission determines p o l i c i e s and issues regula-



The governing board of a d i s t r i c t maintaining a junior college w i l l be the governing board of t h e c i t y o r high school d i s t r i c t i f the boundaries of t h e l a t t e r me coterminous with t h e d i s t r i c t maintaining the junior college Kansas, Minnesota, Montana, and Oregon.



--



a s i n Iowa,



If a separate junior college d i s t r i c t i s



~Ormedby u n i t i n g two o r more high school d i s t r i c t s , it w i l l have a separate board



--



as i n Colorado, Idaho, Michigan, and Nw York. e



In f i v e s t a t e s a junior college



may be established i n e i t h e r a high school d i s t r i c t o r a union of such d i s t r i c t s



-- namely,



California, Mississippi, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming.



In Colorado and Florida a county o r two o r more counties usually compose t h e

junior college d i s t r i c t . I n the f i r s t instance, the county board of education is



the governing board; it must be kept i n mind t h a t Florida has a county u n i t which i s the operating d i s t r i c t f o r elementary and high schools also. Two o r more counties



united i n a junior college d i s t r i c t w i l l be operated by i t s own separate boards. In Georgia i n c e r t a i n instances t h e Board of Regents operates the junior college 51



directly.



Since Utah has no d i s t r i c t s operating junior colleges, the State Board



of Education i s the governing authority f o r individual i n s t i t u t i o n s . Minimum requirements f o r establishment of a junior college d i s t r i c t usually are two i n number.

A f i r s t c r i t e r i o n i s t h e assessed valuation of the proposed d i s t r i c t ,



A second i s the high school population or number of residents i n t h e proposed area.



Sometimes these minima are s e t by law; a l a r g e r number of s t a t e s authorizes the S t a t e Board of Education o r other regulatory State agency t o e s t a b l i s h them.



The



l i s t of s t a t e s which authorize t h e State agency t o determine p o l i c i e s on assessed



valuation and minimum number of students are the following: California Florida Georgia Kansas Maryland Minnesota Mississippi Nw York e Utah Washington



I n Florida t h e State Board of Education may appoint an Advisory Board f o r each junior college t o a s s i s t t h e county board of education having jurisdiction, t o consist of f i v e members i f t h e d i s t r i c t i s one county, and not more than nine members if t h e junior college d i s t r i c t includes two o r more counties. I n s t a t e s where minimum requirements are s e t by law, wide variations occur : Number of high school students Assessed Valuation $20,000,000 10,000,000 3,000 ,OOO* 20,000,000 .. 12-20 millions 20,000,000



S ta t e Colorado Idaho Montana Oregon Texas Wyoming



503 300-400 700



.......



3,500 800



*Montana a l s o requires t h a t the d i s t r i c t have the physical f a c i l i t i e s t o be used by junior college classes. I n Iowa and Michigan a population of the d i s t r i c t i s required, 5,000 and 10,000 respectively. In California t h e State Board of Education o r d i n a r i l y does not



approve a d i s t r i c t f o r junior college purposes unless it has $100,000,000 i n assessed valuation and a p o t e n t i a l of 400 full-time 52 students i n regular day classes.



Requests t o organize a d i s t r i c t t o maintain junior colleges usually are i n i t i a t e d through a p e t i t i o n addressed t o the State agency with authority t o grant approval for an election t o be held t o determine t h e w i l l of t h e people i n t h e proposed d i s t r i c t . Ordinarily the State agency causes a survey t o be made t o establish t h a t the d i s t r i c t i f voted w i l l meet minimum c r i t e r i a : P e t i t i o n t o State Agency t o proceed with election California Motion by high school boards involved i n district P e t i t i o n signed by 500 o r more e l e c t o r s County board o r boards submit request P o l i t i c a l subdivision asks Board of Regents Vote by qualified electors of dist r i c t required t o establish Majority of e l e c t o r s voting i n special election f o r purpose Majority of e l e c t o r s State Board approves; no election Acceptance by Board of Regents; no election



Colorado Florida Georgia Idaho



P e t i t i o n signed by 300 State Board approves; no electors in m u l t i election d i s t r i c t proposal, no l e s s than 100 per d i s t r i c t ; i f county, 300 and 300 from each of counties involved,



-



Approval sought by a school d i s t r i c t (board j Local board action County board establishes at i t s own discretion D i s t r i c t o r county board p e t i t i o n s Minnesota D i s t r i c t board p e t i t i o n s



604 favorable vote by electors voting

Majority of e l e c t o r s voting i n election State Board regulates State agency approves ; majority vote a t election Two-thirds favorable vote required a t election



County board and county Majority vote at election board of s u p e ~ s o r s e t i t i o n ; p o r school board of municip a l i t y with mayor of c i t y petition jointly



53



Petition t o state Agency t o proceed with election State Montana 25% of e l e c t o r s p e t i t i o n d i s t r i c t or county board which transmits t b State D i s t r i c t or County, or combination, sponsors D i s t r i c t board or p e t i t i o n by 10% of e l e c t o r s P e t i t i o n of 5% electors forwarded by d i s t r i c t or county board P e t i t i o n of 100 electors o r d i s t r i c t board o r boards P e t i t i o n of 25% e l e c t o r s o r 500 e l e c t o r s , whichever less



Vote by qualifl,, e l e c t o r s of d i s t r i c t required t o establish Ma.ioritv vote a t -



i

e --~ r t n i - 1 - --"&I. m



I



1

Regents r u l e s govern establishment; no election Majo