Gila County rail passenger study: final report

              RAIL PASSENGER STUDY
FINAL REPORT
FEBRUARY 2009
i
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
1. INTRODUCTION................................................................................. 1
STAKEHOLDER WORKSHOP ................................................................. 4
2. RAILROAD OPERATING COSTS........................................................... 6
3. EXCURSION RAIL BEST PRACTICES.................................................... 7
TYPES OF EXCURSION RAIL SERVICE ................................................... 7
PEER EXCURSION RAIL SERVICES ........................................................ 8
4. TRANSIT DEMAND AND EXCURSION RIDERSHIP ESTIMATES .............. 20
ESTIMATING TRANSIT DEMAND ......................................................... 20
ESTIMATING EXCURSION RIDERSHIP................................................... 22
5. RAIL SERVICE SCENARIOS................................................................ 26
SCENARIO TIMETABLES .................................................................... 27
DAYS AND DATES OF OPERATION....................................................... 27
PROPOSED FARE STRUCTURE............................................................. 27
6. DRAFT OPERATING PRO- FORMAS ..................................................... 34
REVENUES........................................................................................ 34
EXPENSES......................................................................................... 34
CONCLUSION .................................................................................... 39
APPENDIX A. ESTIMATING TRANSIT DEMAND ....................................... 44
REFERENCES ........................................................................................ 48
ii
LIST OF TABLES
Page
1. RAIL AND HIGHWAY DISTANCE AND TIME ESTIMATES ..................... 2
2. STAKEHOLDER WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS ...................................... 4
3. ARIZONA EASTERN OPERATING COSTS PER 8- HOUR DAY .................. 6
4. MATRIX OF PEER EXCURSION RAIL OPERATIONS ............................ 10
5. ANALYSIS OF FARES CHARGED
PER LENGTH AND DURATION OF TRIP ............................................ 17
6. ANALYSIS OF FARE DISCOUNTING
FOR SENIORS AND CHILDREN ........................................................ 18
7. SKETCH RIDERSHIP ESTIMATING PROCESS – METHODOLOGY I ......... 24
8. SKETCH RIDERSHIP ESTIMATING PROCESS – METHODOLOGY II ........ 25
9 A. TWO ROUND TRIPS BETWEEN MIAMI, GLOBE,
THE CASINO, AND SAN CARLOS. .................................................... 28
9- B. THREE ROUND TRIPS BETWEEN MIAMI, GLOBE, AND THE CASINO.... 28
9- C. THREE ROUND TRIPS BETWEEN GLOBE,
THE CASINO, AND SAN CARLOS ..................................................... 28
9- D. FOUR ROUND TRIPS BETWEEN GLOBE AND THE CASINO.................. 29
9- E. ONE ROUND TRIP DINNER TRAIN BETWEEN
GLOBE, THE CASINO, AND SAN CARLOS ......................................... 29
9- F. ONE ROUND TRIP DINNER TRAIN BETWEEN
MIAMI, GLOBE, AND THE CASINO .................................................. 29
10. ARIZONA EASTERN RAILWAY ROUTE SEGMENTS
AND PEER PER- MILE RATES........................................................... 32
11. REVISED FARE STRUCTURE ........................................................... 33
12- A OPERATING PRO- FORMA – FORECASTED RIDERSHIP SCENARIO ....... 35
12- B OPERATING PRO- FORMA – MINIMAL RIDERSHIP SCENARIO .............. 36
iii
LIST OF TABLES ( CONTINUED)
Page
13- A. FOUR TRIPS DAILY SCHEDULE....................................................... 41
13- B. EIGHT TRIPS DAILY SCHEDULE...................................................... 41
14. RECOMMENDED OPERATING SCENARIO PRO- FORMA....................... 42
12. PREFERRED DAILY OPERATING SCENARIO PRO- FORMA ................... 17
A- 1. 2030 POPULATION OF SERVICE GROUPS IN SERVICE AREA................ 45
A- 2. CALCULATION OF VEHICLE MILES PER SQUARE MILE ..................... 45
A- 3. SERVICE FACTOR CALCULATIONS.................................................. 46
A- 4. ESTIMATION OF TRANSIT DEMAND ................................................ 46
A- 5. ESTIMATION OF TRANSIT DEMAND - ALTERNATIVE METHOD .......... 47
iv
LIST OF FIGURES
Page
1. 2006 DEMONSTRATION EXCURSION RAIL SERVICE............................ 1
2. ARIZONA EASTERN RAILWAY ROUTE WITH PROPOSED STATIONS...... 3
3. ARIZONA EASTERN RAILWAY DOME CAR ........................................ 5
4. PEER EXCURSION RAILROAD 2008 DAYS OF OPERATION ................... 9
5. TRANSIT CORRIDOR FOR DEMAND ESTIMATION.............................. 21
6. DETERMINATION OF GLOBE- BASED EXCURSION TRAIN
CATCHMENT AREA ....................................................................... 23
7. PROPOSED OPERATING SEASON ..................................................... 30
8. EXCURSION RAIL ADULT FARES PER MILE
COMPARED WITH LENGTH OF ROUND TRIP .................................... 32
9. PREPARING FOR INAUGURAL TRIP ................................................. 43
A- 1. TRIP RATES FOR ALTERNATIVE ESTIMATION PROCEDURE ............... 47
Lima & Associates Gila County Passenger Rail Study – Page 1
1. INTRODUCTION
The Arizona Eastern Railway, in cooperation with the Historic Globe Mainstreet
Program and the Apache Gold Casino Resort, operated demonstration excursion rail
service between downtown Globe and the Apache Gold Casino in early 2006 to evaluate
the feasibility of implementing permanent excursion rail service between those two points.
( See Figure 1)
FIGURE 1. 2006 DEMONSTRATION EXCURSION RAIL SERVICE
The equipment used for the runs was a restored self- propelled 38- passenger gas- mechanical
rail car originally manufactured by the Brill Company in 1930. The rail car, nicknamed
“ Spike” for the duration of the demonstration, made four round trips on Thursdays,
Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays. Fares of $ 5 one- way and $ 10 round trip were charged.
“ Spike,” the 1930 rail car used for
the demonstration excursion
service between Globe and the
Apache Gold Casino, prepares to
depart from the Globe depot. The
car was reminiscent of the old
electric “ interurban” cars that were
early 20th Century precursors to
modern suburban rail services such
as those operated in Philadelphia
and Chicago.
— Lima & Associates photo
The San Carlos Apache Tribe
constructed a solidly- built covered
platform to serve as a depot. The stop
is located approximately 50 yards from
the entrance to the casino.
— Lima & Associates photo
Lima & Associates Gila County Passenger Rail Study – Page 2
Subsequent to the conduct of the Gila County Small Area Transportation Study and the rail
excursion demonstration, the consultant received an additional task assignment to examine
the feasibility of establishing permanent passenger rail service in the Globe- Miami area.
The consultant was tasked with conducting a comprehensive review of the potential for
passenger rail utilizing area trackage of the Arizona Eastern Railway. Three service areas
were examined:
• Globe ( downtown) to Apache Gold Casino.
• Globe ( downtown) to Miami ( downtown).
• Apache Gold Casino to San Carlos.
Distances and estimated travel times by rail and highway between these points are listed in
Table 1. Figure 2 depicts the rail and highway routes in the Study Area.
TABLE 1. RAIL AND HIGHWAY DISTANCE AND TIME ESTIMATES
Rail
Mileage
Maximum
Rail MPH
Rail
Travel
Time
Highway
Mileage
Average
Highway
MPH
Highway
Travel
Time
Miami - Claypool 1.51 15 0: 06 1.17 30 0: 02
Claypool - Globe 9.38 30 0: 18 5.38 35 0: 09
Globe - Casino 6.52 30 0: 13 8.82 40 0: 13
Casino – San Carlos 13.96 30 0: 27 14.31 50 0: 17
Miami - Casino 17.41 0: 37 15.37 0: 24
Miami - San Carlos 31.37 1: 05 29.68 0: 41
Source: Arizona Eastern Railway, Arizona Transportation Information System, Lima & Associates
Note that the maximum rail speed is based on the designation by the Arizona Eastern
Railway itself that its trackage between Miami and Claypool meets Federal Railroad
Administration ( FRA) Class I standards and that the trackage between Claypool and San
Carlos meets or exceeds Class II standards. Class I standards permit passenger train
operation at speeds up to 15 mph and Class II standards permit passenger train operation at
speeds up to 30 mph.
This Report represents the findings of the project, including the railroad operating costs
obtained from Arizona Eastern Railway in Chapter 2 and a summary of Excursion Rail
operation best practices in Chapter 3.
Chapter 4 presents an estimate of transit demand, together with the findings of a sketch
estimate of potential excursion rail ridership and characteristics of the Arizona tourism
market,
Chapter 5 presents draft rail service scenarios including a proposed operating season, a
fare structure, and a set of timetables for different route configurations. Chapter 6
presents draft operating pro- formas for the six candidate operating scenarios, together with
Lima & Associates Gila County Passenger Rail Study – Page 3
FIGURE 2. ARIZONA EASTERN RAILWAY ROUTE WITH PROPOSED STATIONS
Lima & Associates Gila County Passenger Rail Study – Page 4
the recommended scenario that resulted from the discussion that took place at the
Stakeholder Workshop and the input provided to the consultant.
STAKEHOLDER WORKSHOP
On Wednesday, October 29, 2008, a stakeholder workshop was conducted at the passenger
depot in Globe. Workshop participants are listed in Table 2.
TABLE 2. STAKEHOLDER WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS
Participant Title Affiliation
Scott Friedson Rail Planner ADOT
Dennis Giacoletti General Manager Arizona Eastern Railway
Bill Leister Sr. Transportation Planner CAAG
Hon. Fernando Shipley Mayor City of Globe
Steve Sanders Deputy Public Works Director Gila County
Kip Culver Administrator Globe Main Street Program
Ed Ellis President Iowa Pacific
John E. Thomas V. P. Sales & Marketing Rio Grande Scenic Railroad
Robin Marquis Tour & Travel Sales Manager Rio Grande Scenic Railroad
Barney Bigman Tribal Transportation Planner San Carlos Apache Tribe
Rob Bohannan Sr. Transportation Planner Lima & Associates
The consultant presented the findings and draft recommendations of the project, including
a proposed operating season, a draft fare structure, and six potential operating scenarios as
described in Chapter 5. Draft operating pro- formas were also presented for discussion.
Key elements of the workshop discussion were:
• Railroad officials suggested that the draft fare structure should be revised to reflect
the fact that the per- mile fare charged for excursion trips is typically higher for
shorter route segments. The Fare Structure discussion in Chapter 5 reflects this
input.
• Railroad officials also expressed a preference for a downtown Globe – Apache
Globe Casino route. These termini both have established tourist appeal and a rail
operation between the two would be the least complicated to implement. The
Report Conclusion in Chapter 6 reflects this input.
• Gila County has reserved approximately $ 40,000 in Local Transportation
Assistance Funds for the purpose of facilitating the implementation of excursion rail
service. Following the consultant presentation and Workshop discussion the
County’s representative suggested that these funds will be made available.
Lima & Associates Gila County Passenger Rail Study – Page 5
• All present expressed interest in implementing the service. The railroad explained
that they had been conducting their own field view and analysis of the concept and
plan to proceed with implementation.
• Using a diesel locomotive in the short term would mean lower up- front capital
costs. However steam locomotives are actually less expensive to operate because
of their ability to use re- claimed motor oil and other fuels that are cheaper than
diesel.
• Draft plans for the proposed operation as described by Arizona Eastern and the
Globe Main Street Program are:
􀀹 Following the demonstration service that was operated in the spring of 2006,
the excursion service will be known as “ Copper Spike Railway”
􀀹 Marketing expertise and assistance with ticketing and reservations will be
provided by Rio Grande Scenic Railway, which is a corporate sibling of
Arizona Eastern.
􀀹 Service was inaugurated December 13, 2008.
􀀹 Trains operate Thursdays through Sundays during the 98- day season, making
four round- trips daily between the Globe depot and Apache Gold Casino.
􀀹 Consideration will be given to providing area residents and Casino employees
the opportunity to purchase multi- ride tickets for commuting purposes.
􀀹 Equipment to be used will initially consist of a diesel locomotive, an open-window
coach, a parlor car, and a dome car similar to that depicted in Figure 3
below. A steam locomotive is being prepared for use.
FIGURE 3. ARIZONA EASTERN RAILWAY DOME CAR
— Lima & Associates photo
Lima & Associates Gila County Passenger Rail Study – Page 6
2. RAILROAD OPERATING COSTS
Standard railroad accounting practice divides the operation of the company into four
categories. These are Maintenance- of- way, Equipment, Transportation, and
Administrative.
Maintenance- of- way includes all of the labor and materials related to the construction and
maintenance of track including the rails, crossties, and other track materials such as joint
bars, and other track hardware. Bridges and structures are usually included in this
category, as are signals and signage.
Equipment includes the maintenance and repair of locomotives, motor vehicles and
machinery.
Transportation includes the operating crews— engineer and conductor— wages and fringe
benefits, as well as the fuel and oil consumed by the locomotives.
Administrative costs include the corporate management, administrative professionals, and
expenses such as telephone, printing, and so forth.
Arizona Eastern Railway Operating Costs
The Arizona Eastern Railway supports studying the concept of excursion service on their
line. Iowa Pacific Holdings, the parent company of Arizona Eastern, currently owns and
operates the Rio Grande Scenic Railroad, headquartered in Alamosa, Colorado, and is
familiar with excursion train operating issues and concerns. The Railway provided the
consultant with cost figures for operating the trains, as well as fees for transferring
equipment between Alamosa and Globe for use in both operations. Table 3 lists the dollar
amounts.
TABLE 3. ARIZONA EASTERN OPERATING COSTS PER 8- HOUR DAY
Equipment Cost per Day* Transfer to/ from Alamosa
One Diesel Locomotive $ 1,000.00 On- site
Two Diesel Locomotives $ 1,300.00 On- site
Steam Locomotive $ 2,500.00 - $ 3,000.00 $ 30,000 - $ 40,000
Passenger Car $ 150.00 - $ 200.00 $ 6,000 - $ 8,000
* These costs include:
• Three- person Crew Wages and Fringe
• Locomotive Fuel, Water, and Lubrication
• Maintenance
• 24/ hour dispatching from Iowa Pacific in Chicago
Additional crew time = $ 100 - $ 150/ hour
Source: Arizona Eastern Railway, Interview with CEO Ed Ellis, February 18, 2008
Lima & Associates Gila County Passenger Rail Study – Page 7
3. EXCURSION RAIL BEST PRACTICES
This Chapter briefly examines the excursion railroad industry. The different types of
excursion rail services are summarized, and peer operations are analyzed.
TYPES OF EXCURSION RAIL SERVICE
Excursion rail service can take many forms— service is tailored to the community or region
served. Some rail lines were purpose- built to serve tourists. The Manitou & Pikes Peak
Cog Railway in Colorado was completed in 1891 to carry sightseers to the summit. Ten
years later, the Grand Canyon Railway was finished to the rim of the Canyon. While
some speculation relating to copper mining activity was the original impetus for building a
branch north from the Santa Fe mainline at Williams, tourist passengers comprised the
bulk of the Railway’s business from the moment of completion. Although both are scenic
trips, the Pikes Peak and Grand Canyon lines are destination- oriented.
Other excursion railroads exist to provide the experience of a train ride itself, to provide an
attractive means of viewing the scenery along the route, or a combination of the two.
While scenic excursions have been a part of railroading almost since the technology was
invented in the early 19th Century, operations intended to preserve scenic remnants of
longer routes or to provide the nostalgia of rail travel began to appear in earnest after
World War II. The passage in 1956 of the Interstate Highway Act and the introduction of
jet airliners the following year hastened the demise of privately- operated long- distance rail
passenger service, and lightly- patronized branches— often the more scenic segments of the
railroad— were the first to lose regularly scheduled passenger service. At the same time
the technology for the design and operation of diesel locomotives had been refined during
the War, and steam locomotives were rapidly being replaced during the 1950s by more
easily maintained diesels. Steam locomotive preservation was another significant catalyst
for the establishment of excursion railroad operations. Grand Canyon Railway has several
steam locomotives that it operated during the peak summer season through 2008.
In the Southwest, one of the more prominent early examples of preserving a scenic railroad
branch for recreational enjoyment was that of the Denver & Rio Grande Western’s
Durango- to- Silverton line. For many years, this line was operated by the Rio Grande
itself, although it was unusual for the original Class I railroad owner of a line to operate an
on- going excursion operation. Later, in the 1990s, the line was sold to private investors
and now operates as the Durango & Silverton Narrow Gauge Railroad. In Arizona, Verde
Canyon Railroad is an example of an excursion where the en- route scenery is the main
attraction.
The Grand Canyon and the Verde Valley are two of the most scenic places in North
America. While the railroads serving these areas have been very successful, excursion
railroads have succeeded elsewhere in America where the scenery was less spectacular,
compensating in other ways.
Lima & Associates Gila County Passenger Rail Study – Page 8
Excursion rail service variables include:
• Type( s) of motive power used
• Type( s) of passenger- carrying equipment used
• Length( s) of trips offered
• Frequency and seasonality of operation
• Theme( s) of excursions
• Target market( s)
PEER EXCURSION RAIL SERVICES
The consultant identified 10 excursion rail operations in the Western United States that
provide a cross- section of the variety of services these railroads offer. Information on the
railroads was obtained through internet research including the railroads’ own Web sites
and other Web sites that provide data regarding excursion railroad services. The current
Guide to North America’s Tourist Railways and Museums, the companion publication to
the popular PBS “ Great American Railway Journeys” program, was also consulted. The
consultant has also visited Arizona’s two operations, the Grand Canyon Railway and the
Verde Canyon Railroad, many times— both before and after the introduction of excursion
rail service. In both cases, the inaugural trips were ridden, as well as repeat trips after the
services had matured and additional amenities were added.
Existing Arizona Excursion Rail Services
Grand Canyon Railway After years of false starts beginning in 1972, the Grand Canyon
Railway opened with much fanfare in September 1989, the project of Scottsdale
entrepreneur Max Biegert and his wife Thelma. The GCR now carries over 200,000
passengers annually, and the property was recently sold to Xanterra, owners of the Grand
Canyon National Park concessions previously operated by Fred Harvey. Trains have been
steam powered during the peak summer season; the Railway announced in the fall of 2008
its intention to use diesels year round. Five different classes of accommodations are
offered including vintage “ Harriman” coaches, deluxe parlor cars, and glass- topped “ Vista
Dome” cars dating from the 1950s streamliner era.
The 64- mile trip between Williams and Grand Canyon takes approximately two and one-half
hours each way, and a four- hour layover at the Canyon provides ample time for
viewing the South Rim and dining at the luxurious El Tovar Hotel or one of the other
former Fred Harvey establishments. Theme runs are also provided including the popular
Polar Express during the Holidays and the Sunset Limited during selected evenings in the
early Fall.
Verde Canyon Railroad In the late 1980s the Santa Fe Railway’s branch line between
Drake and Clarkdale, Arizona, was purchased by David and Linda Durbano, owners of the
Lima & Associates Gila County Passenger Rail Study – Page 9
Wyoming and Colorado Railroad, which operates short lines in Wyoming and Oregon.
The purpose of the line, initially called the Arizona Central, was to serve Phoenix Cement,
a major rail freight customer located at Clarkdale. However an inspection trip through the
Verde River Canyon between Perkinsville and Clarkdale revealed the obvious tourist
potential of the route and the Arizona Central’s excursion operation, named the Verde
Canyon Railroad, was implemented in November 1990. The line operates air- conditioned
coaches, first class parlor cars, and open air “ gondolas” where passengers can enjoy close-up
views of the breathtaking en- route scenery. Other than the railroad, a primitive trail
used by equestrians and hikers is the only access to the canyon, and a variety of wildlife
including nesting bald eagles can be seen from the train. The round trip between Clarkdale
and Perkinsville takes four hours. A number of theme trips are operated throughout the
year including popular “ moonlight” trips on summer evenings, wine- tasting trips, and
Valentines Day specials.
Other Excursion Rail Operations in the Western United States
The ten other excursion rail operations examined by the consultant are:
• Abilene & Smoky Valley Railroad • Austin Steam Train
• Copper King Express • Fillmore and Western Railroad
• Grapevine Vintage Railroad • Mount Hood Railroad
• Nevada Southern Railroad • Rio Grande Scenic Railroad
• Santa Fe Southern Railway • Yreka Western Railway
Dozens of excursion railroads operate within the Western United States. These ten were
selected because of their proximity to Arizona and the variety of terrain and scenery
through which they operate. All ten offer relatively short trips, and most operate both
steam and diesel locomotives. Table 4 presents the key characteristics of each operation.
Trip durations range from 45 minutes ( Nevada Southern) to four hours ( Santa Fe
Southern). Round trip lengths range from six miles on the Nevada Southern to 96 miles on
the Rio Grande Scenic Railroad. Note that many of the railroads, including the Rio
Grande Scenic, offer a choice of destinations and itineraries, and trip lengths and travel
times vary. For statistical analysis, one trip from each peer operation was selected.
It should be noted that the consultant has personally field viewed the following peer
operations: Grand Canyon Railway, Verde Canyon Railroad, Austin Steam Train, and
Santa Fe Southern. The consultant has also field viewed portions of the right- of- way of
the Nevada Southern Railroad and the Rio Grande Scenic Railroad.
Lima & Associates Gila County Passenger Rail Study – Page 10
TABLE 4. MATRIX OF PEER EXCURSION RAIL OPERATIONS
Name of Railroad Location Description of Service Motive Power Equipment
Trips per
Day
Dinner
Train
Option?
Theme
Train
Option?
Adult
Fare
Child
Fare
Abilene & Smoky Valley Abilene KS 1- 1/ 2 hour 10 mile round- trip from Abilene to
Enterprise through the Smoky Hill River Valley
Diesel Coach, open- air gondola,
caboose
2 No No $ 12.00 $ 6.00
Austin Steam Train Cedar Park, TX Three hour round- trip from Cedar Park to Bertram Steam and Diesel 1 No Yes $ 28.00 $ 12.00
Copper King Express Anaconda, MT 3 ½ - hour, 52- mile trip over the former Butte,
Anaconda and Pacific Railway between the mining and
smelting communities of Butte and Anaconda.
Diesel Air conditioned chair cars
1 No No $ 25.00 $ 5.00
Fillmore and Western Fillmore, CA 3.5 hour round trip between Fillmore and Santa Paula. Diesel Vintage coaches 1 Yes Yes $ 22.00 $ 8.00
Grapevine Vintage Railroad Grapevine, TX 42- mile roundtrip over the Cotton Belt line, linking the
communities of Grapevine, Colleyville, Smithfield and
Fort Worth's Stockyards.
Steam and Diesel Vintage coaches
1 No Yes $ 20.00 $ 10.00
Mount Hood Hood River, OR A 2.5- hour morning or afternoon trip between Hood
River and Odell
Diesel Coaches, open- air gondola
1, 2 Yes Yes $ 25.00 $ 15.00
Nevada Southern Boulder City, NV 45 minutes run departs from the Boulder City station at
Yucca Street and proceeds west approximately 3.0
miles to just behind the Railroad Pass Casino
Diesel Air- conditioned/ heated
cars, an open- air car, and
a generator car.
4 No No $ 8.00 $ 4.00
Rio Grande Scenic Railroad Alamosa, CO 2.5 hour round trip between Alamosa and Fir or
between La Veta and Fir
Steam and Diesel Dome car and standard
coaches
2 No Yes $ 39.00 $ 25.00
Santa Fe Southern Santa Fe, NM 26- mile ride on a working freight train through high
desert scenery on a 4- hour round trip from Santa Fe to
Lamy, 18 miles southeast. A caterer is available on
certain days.
Diesel Both vintage and
streamlined coaches.
1 Yes Yes $ 28.00 $ 18.00
Yreka Western Yreka, CA 3 hour, 15- mile round trip from Yreka to Montague Steam Coaches, open- air gondola 1 No Yes $ 20.00 $ 12.00
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 11
Days and Dates of Operation
Figure 4 presents a series of 2008 calendars that graphically depict the days and dates of
operation of the 10 out- of- state railroads. Arizona’s two railroads and the Fillmore &
Western in California all operate year- round. The other nine properties have seasons of
varying lengths. The Grapevine Vintage Railroad and the Nevada Southern both began
operating in February. But the Austin Steam Train and the Yreka Western did not start up
before June.
FIGURE 4. PEER EXCURSION RAILROAD 2008 DAYS OF OPERATION
JAN
2008
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Abilene & Smoky Valley
Days of Operation
JAN
2008
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Austin Steam Train - Bertram Flyer
Days of Operation
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 12
FIGURE 4. PEER EXCURSION RAILROAD 2008 DAYS OF OPERATION
( Continued)
JAN
2008
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Copper King Express
Days of Operation
JAN
2008
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Filmore & Western - Weekend Scenic
Days of Operation
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 13
FIGURE 4. PEER EXCURSION RAILROAD 2008 DAYS OF OPERATION
( Continued)
JAN
2008
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Grapevine Vintage Railroad
Days of Operation
JAN
2008
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Mount Hood Railroad
Days of Operation
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 14
FIGURE 4. PEER EXCURSION RAILROAD 2008 DAYS OF OPERATION
( Continued)
JAN
2008
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Nevada Southern Railway
Days of Operation
JAN
2008
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Rio Grande Scenic Railroad
Alamosa to Fir or La Veta to Fir
Days of Operation
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 15
FIGURE 4. PEER EXCURSION RAILROAD 2008 DAYS OF OPERATION
( Continued)
JAN
2008
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Santa Fe Southern Railway
Days of Operation
JAN
2008
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Yreka Western - Blue Goose
Days of Operation
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 16
Theme Trains and Special Events
Nine of the 12 properties offer themed excursions— many of which include meals of some
sort— but only three appear to operate regularly scheduled dinner trains. Holiday themes
such as the “ Polar Express” or “ Easter Bunny Special” geared towards children are
popular. Adults are offered “ Murder Mystery Trains”, while specials offered on other
holidays, such as the Fourth of July, attract families. Theme trains are often scheduled
outside the regular operating calendar.
En Route Scenery
Surveys conducted by the Arizona Office of Tourism repeatedly show that “ scenery” is
one of the main attractions of rural Arizona for both in- state and out- of- state tourists. A
brief discussion of en- route scenery is in order:
The scenery through which many of these railroads operate is somewhat similar to that in
Southern Gila County. The Austin Steam Train runs through the Texas Hill Country, the
Nevada Southern operates in Mohave Desert terrain near Las Vegas, the Rio Grande
Scenic Railroad crosses Colorado’s San Luis Valley, and the Santa Fe Southern crosses
high desert outside its namesake city.
The countryside crossed by the Abilene & Smoky Valley Railroad in Kansas and the
Grapevine Vintage Railroad in the Fort Worth area, as well as the desert domain of the
Nevada Southern are arguably less scenic than the country around Globe. Mount Hood
provides a dramatic backdrop for its namesake railroad and Mount Shasta provides the
same backdrop for the Yreka Western.
Paralleling the Highway
The Arizona Eastern Railway closely parallels US 70 most of the way between Globe and
Apache Gold Casino. Paralleling a highway is a double- edged sword. The train can
“ market itself” to passing motorists, particularly if the rail equipment is attractive or
attention- getting— such as a steam locomotive, for example. On the other hand, motorists
have already “ seen” the route and many, including railroad buffs, are apt to use the
highway to “ chase” the train and photograph it, rather than paying to ride.
The routes of the Austin Steam Train and the Nevada Southern closely parallel highways,
while the routes of the Grand Canyon Railway, Verde Canyon Railroad, Santa Fe
Southern, and Rio Grande Scenic Railroad do not.
Other portions of the Arizona Eastern do not parallel any roadways. East of the Casino,
the line deviates to the north towards San Carlos, then turns and follows the San Carlos
River south underneath the highway before turning east. The railroad and highway do not
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 17
come together again until the vicinity of Bylas. Another portion of the line that is not
paralleled by any roads is the segment between Globe and Miami, a candidate route
segment that this study examined.
Fares and Discounts
The consultant documented and compared the fares and discounts charged and offered by
the different excursion rail operators. Table 5 presents an analysis of the fare charged per
length and duration of the trip. In this table, only adult fares were analyzed. The average
adult fare is just under a dollar a mile, or about $ 7.78 per hour. The Verde Canyon
Railroad, which has one of the most spectacular rail routes anywhere, charges the most—
$ 2.29 per mile and $ 13.74 per hour. It is worth noting that the second highest rates, $ 1.33
per mile and $ 10.67 per hour, are charged by the Nevada Southern, the one peer railroad
known to operate in the vicinity of a Casino.
TABLE 5. ANALYSIS OF FARES CHARGED
PER LENGTH AND DURATION OF TRIP
Name of Railroad Adult
Length of
Trip
( RT miles)
Duration
of Trip
( hours)
Adult
Fare per
mile
Adult
Fare per
Hour
Abilene & Smoky Valley $ 12.00 10 1: 30 $ 1.20 $ 8.00
Austin Steam Train $ 17.00 50 3: 00 $ 0.34 $ 5.67
Copper King $ 25.00 52 3: 30 $ 0.48 $ 7.14
Fillmore and Western $ 22.00 20 3: 30 $ 1.10 $ 6.29
Grand Canyon Railway $ 65.00 130 8: 00 $ 0.50 $ 8.13
Grapevine Vintage Railroad $ 20.00 49 5: 00 $ 0.41 $ 4.00
Mount Hood Railroad $ 25.00 19 2: 30 $ 1.32 $ 10.00
Nevada Southern $ 8.00 6 0: 45 $ 1.33 $ 10.67
Rio Grande Scenic Railroad $ 39.00 96 6: 30 $ 0.41 $ 6.00
Santa Fe Southern $ 32.00 26 4: 30 $ 1.23 $ 7.11
Verde Canyon $ 54.95 24 4: 00 $ 2.29 $ 13.74
Yreka Western $ 20.00 15 3: 00 $ 1.33 $ 6.67
Averages $ 0.99 $ 7.78
Highest $ 2.29 $ 13.74
Source: Railroad Web sites
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 18
The extent to which rail fares were discounted for seniors and children was also analyzed
as shown in Table 6. Senior fares averaged 90.65 percent of adult fares. However, three
of the railroads, Abilene & Smoky Valley Railroad, Grand Canyon Railway, and Yreka
Western Railroad, do not offer discounts for seniors. All 12 railroads— including the two
Arizona lines— offer substantial discounts for children 12 and under, the average child fare
being 52.26 percent of the adult fare.
TABLE 6. ANALYSIS OF FARE DISCOUNTING
FOR SENIORS AND CHILDREN
Name of Railroad Adult Senior Child
Senior %
of Adult
Child %
of Adult
Abilene & Smoky Valley $ 12.00 $ 12.00 $ 6.00 100.00% 50.00%
Austin Steam Train $ 17.00 $ 14.00 $ 12.00 82.35% 70.59%
Copper King $ 25.00 $ 20.00 $ 5.00 80.00% 20.00%
Fillmore and Western $ 22.00 $ 20.00 $ 8.00 90.91% 36.36%
Grand Canyon Railway $ 65.00 $ 65.00 $ 30.00 100.00% 46.15%
Grapevine Vintage Railroad $ 20.00 $ 18.00 $ 10.00 90.00% 50.00%
Mount Hood Railroad $ 25.00 $ 23.00 $ 15.00 92.00% 60.00%
Nevada Southern $ 8.00 $ 7.00 $ 4.00 87.50% 50.00%
Rio Grande Scenic Railroad $ 39.00 $ 35.00 $ 25.00 89.74% 64.10%
Santa Fe Southern $ 32.00 $ 27.00 $ 18.00 84.38% 56.25%
Verde Canyon $ 54.95 $ 49.95 $ 34.95 90.90% 63.60%
Yreka Western $ 20.00 $ 20.00 $ 12.00 100.00% 60.00%
Averages 90.65% 52.26%
Source: Railroad Web sites
Operating Speeds
Passenger rail transit service is most effective when travel times between points are
competitive with automobile travel times between the same points. However excursion
trains routinely operate at speeds that would be unacceptably slow for most rail transit
applications. For example, Grand Canyon Railway trains take over two hours each way to
travel between Williams and Grand Canyon, a distance of 64 miles. Allowing for traffic
congestion, delays at the National Park entrance, and so forth, the same trip can be
traveled by automobile in 90 minutes or less. The Arizona Eastern is designated as “ Class
II” and passenger trains would be allowed to operate at up to 30 mph. The consultant
believes that allowable speeds would not be a factor with respect to operation of an
excursion train in the Study Area.
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 19
Initial Marketing Assessment
Marketing techniques used by the peer excursion railroads examined include maintenance
of Web sites, links to area chambers of commerce and neighboring tourist attractions, links
to Web sites maintained by rail advocates, “ 800” telephone numbers, and conventional
print and electronic media advertising.
All of the railroads evaluated had Web sites. All were also listed in the current Guide to
North America’s Tourist Railways and Museums. Some of the information included on the
Web sites or in the Guide appeared to be out- of- date, incomplete, or inaccurate. In
addition, some of the Web sites were difficult to navigate or understand, either through
poor graphic design or faulty technical development.
Arizona’s existing railroads, Grand Canyon Railway and Verde Canyon Railway, have two
of the more attractive and accessible sites. Significantly, the Web sites of the Rio Grande
Scenic Railroad and Mount Hood Railroad, which are owned by the same corporation that
owns Arizona Eastern Railway, are also nicely designed and easy to understand.
The trains themselves— as alluded to earlier— are self- promoting, rolling “ billboards”
proclaiming their existence and availability. Of course, if the train is a hodgepodge of
mis- matched equipment in obvious need of painting or other maintenance, the effect can be
negative. Here again, Arizona is blessed with two very image- conscious railroads with
equipment that is as appealing to look at from a distance as it is enjoyable to ride.
Southern Arizona currently has no operating excursion railroad. While the Verde Canyon
Railroad at Clarkdale is closer to many areas of metropolitan Phoenix than Globe, the
same cannot be said of Tucson. In addition, a potential synergy exists between the railroad
and the Casino. The consultant believes that continued pro- active coordination among the
railroad, the San Carlos Apache Nation, and the Globe Main Street Program is essential to
the success of the project.
Other potential marketing techniques include:
• Selling discounted multi- ride “ commuter” tickets to Casino employees and Gila
County residents as was discussed at the Stakeholder Workshop
• Packaging rail tickets with overnight stays at the Apache Gold Casino Resort and
other Globe area attractions
• Pro- actively promoting the rail excursion in conjunction with the annual Tribal
Pow- Wow and other Western heritage events
• Participating in railroad- themed trade shows in the Tucson and Phoenix
metropolitan areas such as Scottsdale’s McCormick Railroad Park Rail Fair and the
Sahuaro Central event at Adobe Mountain Park in Phoenix
• Encouraging the development of group tours from potential markets such as the
senior- oriented recreational vehicle parks in Eastern Maricopa County
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 20
4. TRANSIT DEMAND AND EXCURSION RIDERSHIP ESTIMATES
This chapter describes two distinct processes. The first is an estimate of transit demand,
and the second is an estimate of excursion train market— or potential ridership. The
preceding chapter summarized the different types of excursion rail service. In addition,
passenger rail service can provide peak- hour commuter service between the suburbs of a
metropolitan area and the center of that area, or between the suburbs themselves.
Passenger rail service can also provide regional service between two metropolitan areas
and long- distance service connecting regions.
The character of these services may differ significantly from each other in terms of
equipment, scheduling, fare structure, and other elements. At the same time, it is possible
for a passenger rail service to serve both transportation and excursion functions. Many
Amtrak routes, for example, traverse scenic areas and provide basic transportation between
communities lacking air or bus connections as well as opportunities for persons wishing to
view the scenery along the route. In some respects, the Grand Canyon Railway functions
as a “ tourist commuter” service carrying people between a “ park- and- ride” in Williams
and the Canyon.
The consultant was tasked to assess the potential demand for a Miami- Globe- Casino- San
Carlos rail service as a commuter or regional rail operation as well as a tourist attraction.
First, the “ transit” demand for the service is analyzed, using the same procedure that was
used to estimate transit demand County- wide in the preceding Gila County Small Area
Transportation Study. Next an analysis of Arizona tourist behavior is used to develop a
sketch estimate of the potential annual market for an area excursion rail operation.
ESTIMATING TRANSIT DEMAND
In the Gila County Small Area Transportation Study ( SATS), Transit Cooperative
Research Program ( TCRP) Report 3, Workbook for Estimating Demand for Rural
Passenger Transportation, was utilized to estimate possible demand for transit service
County- wide. This workbook provides a methodology for estimating transit demand for
rural systems, using population data for the year of proposed service start- up and
assumptions of service area size and route lengths.
The demand methodology outlined in TCRP Report 3 required that a hypothetical system
be developed for analysis purposes. For the purposes of this report, the actual route
connecting Miami, Globe, the Casino, and San Carlos was used. ( See Figure 5) Note that
the route is served by both the Arizona Eastern Railway and a parallel highway system
consisting of US 60 between Miami and eastern Globe, US 70 from eastern Globe to the
vicinity of the Casino, and Tribal Route 800 from east of the Casino to San Carlos. While
rail transit service in a rural corridor would be unusual, the TCRP Report 3 methodology
is not mode- specific and could equally apply to either rail or bus service.
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 21
FIGURE 5. TRANSIT CORRIDOR FOR DEMAND ESTIMATION
Transit Corridor
Miami
Globe Depot
San Carlos
Casino
Proposed Stations
To achieve results from the demand estimation procedure consistent with those developed
for the preceding SATS, a subset of the same 2030 travel analysis zones ( TAZs) created
for the SATS were used.
To conduct the demand estimation procedure, the following assumptions were made:
• The service area for the hypothetical system is defined as the TAZs that are
traversed by any of the roadway segments depicted as being transit served
• Every resident of the universe of transit- served TAZs is a potential user of the
system
• The percentages of County residents aged 65 and over, having mobility limitations,
or living below the poverty level will be the same in 2030 as they were in 2000
• The population figures forecasted under the “ Accelerated Growth” scenario in the
SATS are used
• It was assumed that service would be provided twice daily between Miami, Globe,
the Casino, and San Carlos, as this is the level of service that could be provided by
rail given the existing operating parameters. Note that this procedure results in
estimated demand for scheduled, fixed- route, twice daily bus service only. The
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 22
Globe- Miami area is already served by the Cobre Valley Community Transit
( CVCT) dial- a- ride system. Estimating the future level of dial- a- ride demand in the
Cobre Valley service area, or for adding a deviated fixed route element to the
CVCT service, are beyond the scope of this study.
Documentation of the transit demand estimating process is provided in Appendix A.
Summary of Transit Demand Estimation
The demand methodology in TCRP Report 3 included both base and alternative methods of
demand estimation. The consultant conducted both procedures to compare the results from
each. The base and alternative methods of transit demand estimation resulted in daily
estimates of 39 and 83 trips, respectively. Given the low service frequencies used in the
hypothetical example, the lower estimate of 39 trips per day is probably more accurate.
ESTIMATING EXCURSION RIDERSHIP
No scientific methodologies for estimating excursion train ridership exist. For developing
a sketch estimate of potential ridership for a Globe- based excursion train, the consultant
relies on the findings of tourist- behavior research conducted for the Arizona Office of
Tourism, together with empirical knowledge of excursion train marketing.
To mimic the approach recommended by the Transit Cooperative Research Program for
estimating transit demand, two different methodologies for estimating potential excursion
train ridership were used. One methodology is based on the number of potential riders
within a 100- mile radius of Globe, and the other is based on the current traffic volumes of
major highways serving the Globe area.
Estimating Potential Ridership within 100 Miles of Globe
In the 1970s, the Arizona Intra- State Tourism Committee commissioned a study of In- State
Travel Patterns of Arizona Residents for the Arizona Office of Tourism. Advertising-related
findings of this study, which pre- dates the Internet, are obsolescent. In addition,
the study was conducted before either of Arizona’s two popular excursion rail operations,
Grand Canyon Railway and Verde Canyon Railroad, were operating, and “ excursion rail”
is not covered in the study. However the consultant believes that the basic habits of
Arizona tourists, such as the finding that tourists planning to visit an attraction and return
home in the same day (“ day trip”) prefer to travel 200 miles or less round trip.
Accordingly, the consultant assumes that the catchment area for a Globe- based excursion
rail operation would be an area encompassed by a circle with a 100- mile radius centered on
Globe. ( See Figure 6) As Figure 6 shows, such a circle would overlap an identical circle
centered on Clarkdale, where the Verde Canyon Railroad is based. Any Globe operation
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 23
FIGURE 6. DETERMINATION OF GLOBE- BASED EXCURSION TRAIN CATCHMENT AREA
Area Encompassed by 100- Mile Radius of
Globe
Area Encompassed by 100- Mile Radius of
Globe and Area Encompassed by 100- Mile
Radius of Clarkdale
Portion of Area Encompassed by 100- Mile
Radius of Globe that is Closer to Globe than
Clarkdale
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 24
that is implemented would likely be of a different character than the service operated out of
Clarkdale and would possibly appeal to a different market niche. Nevertheless, in order to
develop a conservative estimate of potential Globe train ridership, the overlapping portion
was deleted from the catchment area.
After defining the extents of the catchment area, as shown in the right- hand panel of
Figure 6, the year 2000 population residing within the catchment area was determined by
identifying the census blocks lying within the area and summing the populations of the
blocks. Next, the percent of Arizona’s total 2000 population represented by the population
of the catchment area was calculated. Then, the resulting percentage was applied to the
total number of leisure tourists within Arizona for 2006, the latest year for which such data
is available. This calculation resulted in a universe of candidate annual excursion train
riders of 2,015,624. A factor of two percent was applied to this universe to achieve an
annual ridership estimate of 40,312 ( See Table 7)
TABLE 7. SKETCH RIDERSHIP ESTIMATING PROCESS – METHODOLOGY I
Total population inside catchment area from Census 2000 1,365,277
Total population for entire state from Census 2000 5,130,632
Percent of state population inside catchment area 26.61%
Total Number of Domestic Leisure Visitors to Arizona** 24,200,000
Total Percent from Arizona** 31.30%
Total Number from Arizona 7,574,600
Multiplied by catchment area percentage 26.61%
Equals Universe of candidate annual train riders 2,015,624
Multiplied by two percent equals sketch annual ridership estimate one 40,312
** Source, Arizona Office of Tourism
Estimating Potential Ridership Based on Traffic Volumes of Highways serving Globe
As an alternate methodology for developing a sketch estimate of potential excursion train
ridership, the consultant reviewed traffic volumes on US 60 between Globe and the
metropolitan Phoenix area and traffic volumes of SR 77 between Globe and the
metropolitan Tucson area. In order to screen out local traffic, such as travel between
Phoenix and Apache Junction on US 60, for example, the figures from the roadway
segment of each route showing the lowest average annual daily traffic volumes ( AADT)
were used. Table 8 presents the calculations used to arrive at a second annual ridership
estimate of 60,043.
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 25
TABLE 8. SKETCH RIDERSHIP ESTIMATING PROCESS – METHODOLOGY II
Lowest AADT on US 60 from west** 6,625
Lowest AADT on SR 77 from south** 1,600
Total non- local AADT 8,225
Multiplied by 365 equals Universe of candidate annual train riders 3,002,125
Multiplied by two percent equals sketch annual ridership estimate 2 60,043
Source: Arizona Department of Transportation
Conclusion of Sketch Ridership Estimating Process
In both methodologies, a factor of two percent was applied to the universe of candidate
annual train riders to arrive at conservative ridership estimates of 40,312 and 60,043
respectively. Of course a successful excursion rail operation can capture more than two
percent of its potential riders. If one assumes, for example, that the annual visitation to the
Grand Canyon represents the universe of potential ridership for the Grand Canyon
Railway, the railway is actually capturing more than four percent of its potential riders.
Many factors affect the percentage of its potential market that an excursion railroad— or
any tourist attraction— is able to capture:
• The length of the “ season” of operation. Grand Canyon Railway operates year
round, however nearly all of the peer operations examined by the consultant operate
half the year or less
• The appeal of the operation and the success of the marketing approaches
• The level of synergy between the railroad operation and adjacent tourist attractions.
Ridership levels of the Globe operation might be significantly affected by the
degree to which Apache Gold Casino proactively participates in marketing the
service. Could the schedules of the buses serving the Casino from the Phoenix and
Tucson areas, for example, be adjusted to accommodate the train operation or to
“ connect” with train schedules?
• The choice of operating practices that could broaden the appeal of the service.
Grand Canyon Railway only operated steam locomotives between Memorial Day
and Labor Day. An operation that employed steam locomotives during the winter
would offer that experience to winter visitors and to other Arizonans during a
period when Grand Canyon operates diesel- powered trains.
The consultant believes that a well- designed and marketed excursion rail operation in
Globe could attract as many as 40,000 to 60,000 riders annually.
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 26
5. RAIL SERVICE SCENARIOS
Based on the results of the transit demand procedure documented in Chapter 4, the
consultant did not pursue further the use of the rail line in the study area for the provision
of transportation for transit- dependent persons. The comparatively low level of such
demand suggests that, in the short term, continuation and/ or expansion of the existing
Cobre Valley Dial- a- Ride service would be a more feasible means of providing transit
service. As demand warrants, the Dial- a- Ride service could be supplemented with
deviated fixed- route transit service in the US 60 corridor, modeled after what was done in
Cottonwood, for example. Detailed evaluation of such a concept is outside the scope of
this project. Of course, some of the excursion rail scenarios described below could lend
themselves to use as transportation, assuming that such service was purchased from the
excursion train operator by a local agency. For the purposes of this project, this approach
was not evaluated.
The following criteria were followed for the scenario and pro- forma development
documented in this chapter as well as Chapter 6:
• An operating season was identified that would complement the existing operating
season of the Rio Grande Scenic Railroad. That railroad is owned by the same
holding company that owns Arizona Eastern and the possibility of sharing
passenger equipment between the two operations exists.
• Two levels of service were examined: Weekends only and four- days- per- week.
• Draft scenarios were based on existing railroad operating conditions and track
speeds.
• Railroad operating costs summarized in Chapter 2 were used. These costs were
assumed to include operating crew labor and fringe ( not including on- board
excursion personnel), locomotive fuel, maintenance, and operating liability
insurance. An estimate of insurance expense for the excursion train administration
is included in the pro- formas in Chapter 6.
• The potential market for the excursion train, based on the sketch estimates
documented in Chapter 4, is assumed to be 50,000 annually. Of this, 35,000 would
be adults, 7,500 would be seniors aged 65 and over, and 7,500 would be children
aged 12, and under.
• Census data was used to suggest the percentage split between adults, seniors, and
children.
• Averages of peer operations were used to assume that fares for seniors aged 65 and
over would be 90 percent of the adult fares and the fares for children aged 12 and
under would be 50 percent of adult fares.
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 27
SCENARIO TIMETABLES
The consultant examined six excursion rail service scenarios per day of operation. These
are
• Two round trips between Miami, Globe, the Casino, and San Carlos
• Three round trips between Miami, Globe, and the Casino
• Three round trips between Globe, the Casino, and San Carlos
• Four round trips between Globe and the Casino, as was done in the 2006 “ Spike”
demonstration
• One round trip dinner train between Globe, the Casino, and San Carlos with dinner
served on board the train
• One round trip dinner train between Miami, Globe, and the Casino with appetizers
served on board and a layover at the Casino for dinner and gaming.
Draft timetables for each scenario are shown in Tables 9- A through 9- F.
DAYS AND DATES OF OPERATION
The excursion operating season of Arizona Eastern’s corporate sibling, the Rio Grande
Scenic Railroad, begins in May each year and extends through October. Arizona Eastern’s
excursion season could run November through April, complementing the Rio Grande’s
season and allowing for time to transfer shared passenger equipment and motive power
between Alamosa, Colorado, the Rio Grande’s headquarters, and Globe. Figure 7 presents
2009 and 2010 AZER operating seasons based on this arrangement. The scheduling would
provide 50 run days for a weekend- only schedule and 98 or 99 run days for a four- days-per-
week schedule, avoiding Thanksgiving and Christmas as indicated.
PROPOSED FARE STRUCTURE
The rate charged per mile by excursion rail operations typically increases as the length of
the trip decreases. This variance reflects the fixed costs related to operating an excursion
train regardless of the length of the journey, as well as the concept that the “ experience” is
a large part of the service. Based on the analysis of adult fares charged by peer
operations, Figure 8 compares the rate per mile and the round trip length.
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 28
TABLE 9- A
TWO ROUND TRIPS BETWEEN
MIAMI, GLOBE, THE CASINO, AND SAN CARLOS
Stations
MILES
8: 00 AM 1: 00 PM Lv. MIAMI Ar. 12: 35 PM 5: 35 PM
8: 06 AM 1: 06 PM Lv. CLAYPOOL Lv. 12: 29 PM 5: 29 PM
8: 43 AM 1: 43 PM Lv. GLOBE Lv. 11: 51 AM 4: 51 PM
9: 09 AM 2: 09 PM Lv. CASINO Lv. 11: 25 AM 4: 25 PM
10: 05 AM 3: 05 PM Ar. SAN CARLOS Lv. 10: 30 AM 3: 30 PM
1.51
9.38
6.52
13.96
TABLE 9- B
THREE ROUND TRIPS BETWEEN MIAMI, GLOBE, AND THE CASINO
Stations
MILES
11: 00 AM 2: 00 PM 5: 00 PM Lv. MIAMI Ar. 1: 39 PM 4: 39 PM 7: 39 PM
11: 06 AM 2: 06 PM 5: 06 PM Lv. CLAYPOOL Lv. 1: 33 PM 4: 33 PM 7: 33 PM
11: 43 AM 2: 43 PM 5: 43 PM Lv. GLOBE Lv. 12: 56 PM 3: 56 PM 6: 56 PM
12: 09 PM 3: 09 PM 6: 09 PM Ar. CASINO Lv. 12: 30 PM 3: 30 PM 6: 30 PM
1.51
9.38
6.52
TABLE 9- C
THREE ROUND TRIPS BETWEEN GLOBE, THE CASINO, AND SAN CARLOS
Stations
MILES
11: 00 AM 2: 00 PM 5: 00 PM Lv. GLOBE Ar. 1: 51 PM 4: 51 PM 7: 51 PM
11: 26 AM 2: 26 PM 5: 26 PM Lv. CASINO Lv. 1: 25 PM 4: 25 PM 7: 25 PM
12: 21 PM 3: 21 PM 6: 21 PM Ar. SAN CARLOS Lv. 12: 30 PM 3: 30 PM 6: 30 PM
6.52
13.96
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 29
TABLE 9- D
FOUR ROUND TRIPS BETWEEN GLOBE AND THE CASINO
Stations
MILES
10: 00 AM 12: 00 PM 2: 00 PM 4: 00 PM Lv. GLOBE Ar. 11: 26 AM 1: 26 PM 3: 26 PM 5: 26 PM
10: 26 AM 12: 26 PM 2: 26 PM 4: 26 PM Ar. CASINO Lv. 11: 00 AM 1: 00 PM 3: 00 PM 5: 00 PM
6.52
TABLE 9- E
ONE ROUND TRIP DINNER TRAIN BETWEEN
GLOBE, THE CASINO, AND SAN CARLOS
Saturday Schedule Sunday Schedule
Stations
MILES
5: 00 PM Lv. GLOBE Ar. 10: 26 PM
| CASINO Lv. 10: 00 PM
5: 26 PM Lv. CASINO Ar. 7: 25 PM
6: 21 PM Ar. SAN CARLOS Lv. 6: 30 PM
13.96
6.52
Stations
MILES
12: 00 PM Lv. GLOBE Ar. 5: 26 PM
| CASINO Lv. 5: 00 PM
12: 26 PM Lv. CASINO Ar. 2: 25 PM
1: 21 PM Ar. SAN CARLOS Lv. 1: 30 PM
6.52
13.96
TABLE 9- F
ONE ROUND TRIP DINNER TRAIN BETWEEN
MIAMI, GLOBE, AND THE CASINO
Saturday Schedule Sunday Schedule
Stations
MILES
5: 00 PM Lv. MIAMI Ar. 10: 09 PM
5: 06 PM Lv. CLAYPOOL Lv. 10: 03 PM
5: 43 PM Lv. GLOBE Lv. 9: 26 PM
6: 09 PM Ar. CASINO Lv. 9: 00 PM
6.52
1.51
9.38
Stations
MILES
11: 30 AM Lv. MIAMI Ar. 5: 09 PM
11: 36 AM Lv. CLAYPOOL Lv. 5: 03 PM
12: 13 PM Lv. GLOBE Lv. 4: 26 PM
12: 39 PM Ar. CASINO Lv. 4: 00 PM
1.51
9.38
6.52
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 30
FIGURE 7. PROPOSED OPERATING SEASON
Weekends- Only Schedule Four- Days- per- Week Schedule
JAN
2009
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Arizona Eastern Railway
Proposed Days of Operation
Easter
Valentine’s Day
Pow Wow
Rock Show
Rock Show
Pow Wow
JAN
2009
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Arizona Eastern Railway
Proposed Days of Operation
Easter
Valentine’s Day
Pow Wow
Rock Show
New Year’s
Rock Show
Pow Wow
Christmas
Thanksgiving
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 31
FIGURE 7. PROPOSED OPERATING SEASON ( Continued)
Weekends- Only Schedule Four- Days- per- Week Schedule
JAN
2010
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Arizona Eastern Railway
Proposed Days of Operation
Easter
Valentine’s Day
JAN
2010
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Arizona Eastern Railway
Proposed Days of Operation
Easter
Valentine’s Day
Christmas
New Year’s
Thanksgiving
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 32
FIGURE 8. EXCURSION RAIL ADULT FARES PER MILE
COMPARED WITH LENGTH OF ROUND TRIP
Table 10 lists proposed Arizona Eastern Railway route segments and per- mile rates
charged by peer operations for trips of similar length.
TABLE 10. ARIZONA EASTERN RAILWAY ROUTE SEGMENTS
AND PEER PER- MILE RATES
BETWEEN and Globe Casino San Carlos
Miami/ RT Miles 22 35 63
Peer Fare/ Mile 1.12 0.78 0.40
Globe RT Miles 13 41
Peer Fare. Mile 1.32 0.60
Casino RT Miles 28
Peer Fare/ Mile 0.95
A draft fare structure was developed by calculating fares based on the route segment
lengths and corresponding per- mile rates shown in Table 10. The adult fares for each
segment were rounded and senior and child discounts of 10 percent and 50 percent
respectively were applied. The results are shown in Table 11.
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 33
TABLE 11. REVISED FARE STRUCTURE
BETWEEN and Globe Casino San Carlos
Adults $ 25.00 $ 25.00 $ 25.00
Seniors $ 22.50 $ 22.50 $ 22.50
Miami/
Claypool
Children $ 12.50 $ 12.50 $ 12.50
Adults $ 20.00 $ 25.00
Globe Seniors $ 18.00 $ 22.50
Children $ 10.00 $ 12.50
Adults $ 25.00
Seniors $ 22.50
Apache
Gold
Casino Children $ 12.50
Annual ridership estimates, together with the proposed operating season and the above fare
structure, were used to develop operating pro- forma scenarios discussed in the following
chapter.
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 34
6. DRAFT OPERATING PRO- FORMAS
The consultant developed two draft operating pro- formas. Both pro- formas assume four-days-
per- week operation during the six month season. A weekend- only scenario does not
pencil out using the revised fare structure without making unrealistic assumptions
regarding daily ridership and equipment utilization. Table 12- A depicts a pro- forma based
on the forecasted annual ridership. Table 12- B evaluates the minimum ridership needed to
make the scenarios break- even for the four non- dinner train options.
REVENUES
Revenues for each scenario were based on the assumptions listed in Chapter 1. Assuming
the use of a three- car consist with a seating capacity of 200 passengers, the revenues
shown on Table 12- A were based on an average passenger occupancy of 70 percent. This
percentage represents effectively “ sold out season” conditions after allowing for last-minute
“ no shows” and “ shorts”— or passengers riding less than the full route— in the case
of scenarios including intermediate stops. In all likelihood, in order to attain such
passenger volumes, the excursion train would need to add at least one extra car on “ over
flow” days, which, in turn, would increase the operating costs for that day by $ 175 per
car. In any event, once public response to the operation warranted it, the railroad might
want to transfer a spare car from Colorado anyway for use in case one of the other cars
became disabled or needed to be rotated through a maintenance program.
EXPENSES
Arizona Eastern Railway, by quoting per- diem cost estimates for the provision of the rail
equipment and operating crews as documented in Chapter 2, has already addressed many
of the key elements that would comprise an operating pro- forma. Other parameters that
needed to be identified before developing the pro- formas include the excursion operation
employees and administrative expenses. Draft scenarios shown to break even or better
have the bottom lines highlighted in green.
Railroad Operating Costs
All of the scenarios take slightly longer than eight hours per day to complete. An average
of nine hours per day was assumed. Hence the following railroad operating costs were
assumed for each equipment configuration:
• One Diesel Locomotive: $ 1,000 plus $ 150 additional hour, or $ 1,150 daily total
• Two Diesel Locomotives: $ 1,300 plus $ 150 additional hour, or $ 1,450 daily total
• Steam Locomotive: $ 3,000 plus $ 150 additional hour, or $ 3,150 daily total
• Passenger Car ( each): $ 175 per day
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 35
TABLE 12- A OPERATING PRO- FORMA –
FORECASTED RIDERSHIP SCENARIO
System Parameters
Miami- San
Carlos
Excursion
Globe- Casino
Excursion
Globe- San
Carlos
Excursion
Miami- Casino
Excursion
Globe- San
Carlos Dinner
on Board
Miami- Casino
Dinner at
Casino
Length of Round Trip 63 13 41 35 41 35
Potential Ridership 24,872 49,745 37,309 37,309 12,436 12,436
Adults ( 70%) 17,411 34,821 26,116 26,116 8,705 8,705
Seniors ( 15%) 3,731 7,462 5,596 5,596 1,865 1,865
Children 12 and under ( 15%) 3,731 7,462 5,596 5,596 1,865 1,865
Potential Revenue
Adults $ 435,267 $ 696,427 $ 652,901 $ 652,901 $ 391,740 $ 348,214
Seniors 83,944 134,311 125,917 125,917 74,617 67,155
Children 12 and under 46,636 74,617 69,954 69,954 67,155 59,694
Total $ 565,847 $ 905,355 $ 848,771 $ 848,771 $ 533,513 $ 475,063
Less Cost of Sales 56,585 90,536 84,877 84,877 53,351 47,506
Net Revenue $ 509,262 $ 814,820 $ 763,894 $ 763,894 $ 480,162 $ 427,557
Excursion Train Fares
Adults $ 25.00 $ 20.00 $ 25.00 $ 25.00 $ 45 $ 40
Seniors ( 90% of Adult) $ 22.50 $ 18.00 $ 22.50 $ 22.50 $ 40 $ 36
Children 12 and under ( 50% Adult) $ 12.50 $ 10.00 $ 12.50 $ 12.50 $ 36 $ 32
Annual Service Days 98 98 98 98 98 98
Round Trips per Day 2 4 3 3 1 1
Equipment
Cars per Train 3 3 3 3 3 3
Average Occupancy per Car 47 47 47 47 47 47
Employees
Excursion Manager FTE $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000
Administrative Professional PTE 16,000 16,000 16,000 16,000 16,000 16,000
Reservation Clerk PTE 16,800 16,800 16,800 16,800 16,800 16,800
Train Host/ Narrator/ Marketer 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000
Snack Bar Attendant ( 1 per train) 10,976 10,976 10,976 10,976 10,976 10,976
Car Attendant ( 1 per car) 32,928 32,928 32,928 32,928 32,928 32,928
Fringe 75,852 75,852 75,852 75,852 75,852 75,852
Total Labor Cost $ 227,556 $ 227,556 $ 227,556 $ 227,556 $ 227,556 $ 227,556
Seasonal Railroad Operating Costs
One Diesel Locomotive $ 112,700 $ 112,700 $ 112,700 $ 112,700 $ 112,700 $ 112,700
Two Diesel Locomotives $ 142,100 $ 142,100 $ 142,100 $ 142,100 $ 142,100 $ 142,100
Steam Locomotive $ 308,700 $ 308,700 $ 308,700 $ 308,700 $ 308,700 $ 308,700
Passenger Car ( each) $ 51,450 $ 51,450 $ 51,450 $ 51,450 $ 51,450 $ 51,450
Seasonal Equipment Costs
Steam Locomotive $ 35,000 $ 35,000 $ 35,000 $ 35,000 $ 35,000 $ 35,000
Passenger Car ( each) $ 21,000 $ 21,000 $ 21,000 $ 21,000 $ 21,000 $ 21,000
General and Administrative Costs
Utilities $ 18,000 $ 18,000 $ 18,000 $ 18,000 $ 18,000 $ 18,000
Telephone/ Internet 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200
Office Supplies 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200
Advertising and Promotion 56,585 90,536 84,877 84,877 53,351 47,506
Sales Tax 45,834 73,334 68,750 68,750 43,215 38,480
Dues & Subscriptions 600 600 600 600 600 600
Postage 7,738 14,877 11,308 11,308 4,169 4,169
Professional Services 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000
Insurance 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000
Total General and Admin. $ 142,157 $ 210,746 $ 196,935 $ 196,935 $ 132,735 $ 122,156
Total Expenses
One Diesel Locomotive $ 554,862.70 $ 623,452.08 $ 609,641.06 $ 609,641.06 $ 545,441.04 $ 534,861.56
Two Diesel Locomotives $ 584,262.70 $ 652,852.08 $ 639,041.06 $ 639,041.06 $ 574,841.04 $ 564,261.56
Steam Locomotive $ 785,862.70 $ 854,452.08 $ 840,641.06 $ 840,641.06 $ 776,441.04 $ 765,861.56
Projected Seasonal Profit ( Loss)
One Diesel Locomotive $ ( 45,600.31) $ 191,367.75 $ 154,252.53 $ 154,252.53 $ ( 65,279.36) $ ( 107,305.01)
Two Diesel Locomotives $ ( 75,000.31) $ 161,967.75 $ 124,852.53 $ 124,852.53 $ ( 94,679.36) $ ( 136,705.01)
Steam Locomotive $ ( 276,600.31) $ ( 39,632.25) $ ( 76,747.47) $ ( 76,747.47) $ ( 296,279.36) $ ( 338,305.01)
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 36
TABLE 12- B OPERATING PRO- FORMA –
MINIMAL RIDERSHIP SCENARIO
System Parameters
Miami- San
Carlos
Excursion
Globe- Casino
Excursion
Globe- San
Carlos
Excursion
Miami- Casino
Excursion
Length of Round Trip 63 13 41 35
Potential Ridership 28,048 31,046 24,872 24,872
Adults ( 70%) 19,633 21,732 17,411 17,411
Seniors ( 15%) 4,207 4,657 3,731 3,731
Children 12 and under ( 15%) 4,207 4,657 3,731 3,731
Potential Revenue
Adults $ 490,833 $ 434,650 $ 435,267 $ 435,267
Seniors 94,661 83,825 83,944 83,944
Children 12 and under 52,589 46,570 46,636 46,636
Total $ 638,083 $ 565,044 $ 565,847 $ 565,847
Less Cost of Sales 63,808 56,504 56,585 56,585
Net Revenue $ 574,275 $ 508,540 $ 509,262 $ 509,262
Excursion Train Fares
Adults $ 25.00 $ 20.00 $ 25.00 $ 25.00
Seniors ( 90% of Adult) $ 22.50 $ 18.00 $ 22.50 $ 22.50
Children 12 and under ( 50% Adult) $ 12.50 $ 10.00 $ 12.50 $ 12.50
Annual Service Days 98 98 98 98
Round Trips per Day 2 4 3 3
Equipment
Cars per Train 3 2 2 2
Average Occupancy per Car 53 44 47 47
Employees
Excursion Manager FTE $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000
Administrative Professional PTE 16,000 16,000 16,000 16,000
Reservation Clerk PTE 16,800 11,200 11,200 11,200
Train Host/ Narrator/ Marketer 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000
Snack Bar Attendant ( 1 per train) 10,976 10,976 10,976 10,976
Car Attendant ( 1 per car) 32,928 21,952 21,952 21,952
Fringe 75,852 67,564 67,564 67,564
Total Labor Cost $ 227,556 $ 202,692 $ 202,692 $ 202,692
Seasonal Railroad Operating Costs
One Diesel Locomotive $ 112,700 $ 112,700 $ 112,700 $ 112,700
Two Diesel Locomotives $ 142,100 $ 142,100 $ 142,100 $ 142,100
Steam Locomotive $ 308,700 $ 308,700 $ 308,700 $ 308,700
Passenger Car ( each) $ 51,450 $ 34,300 $ 34,300 $ 34,300
Seasonal Equipment Costs
Steam Locomotive $ 35,000 $ 35,000 $ 35,000 $ 35,000
Passenger Car ( each) $ 21,000 $ 14,000 $ 14,000 $ 14,000
General and Administrative Costs
Utilities $ 18,000 $ 18,000 $ 18,000 $ 18,000
Telephone/ Internet 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200
Office Supplies 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200
Advertising and Promotion 63,808 56,504 56,585 56,585
Sales Tax 51,685 45,769 45,834 45,834
Dues & Subscriptions 600 600 600 600
Postage 8,650 9,510 7,738 7,738
Professional Services 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000
Insurance 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000
Total General and Admin. $ 156,143 $ 143,783 $ 142,157 $ 142,157
Total Expenses
One Diesel Locomotive $ 568,848.67 $ 507,475.37 $ 505,848.70 $ 505,848.70
Two Diesel Locomotives $ 598,248.67 $ 536,875.37 $ 535,248.70 $ 535,248.70
Steam Locomotive $ 799,848.67 $ 738,475.37 $ 736,848.70 $ 736,848.70
Projected Seasonal Profit ( Loss)
One Diesel Locomotive $ 5,425.94 $ 1,064.66 $ 3,413.69 $ 3,413.69
Two Diesel Locomotives $ ( 23,974.06) $ ( 28,335.34) $ ( 25,986.31) $ ( 25,986.31)
Steam Locomotive $ ( 225,574.06)$ ( 229,935.34)$ ( 227,586.31) $ ( 227,586.31)
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 37
Employees
The daily operating cost figures provided by the Arizona Eastern include the employees
needed to ensure the operation of the train itself including the engineer, conductor, and
maintenance personnel. These personnel are those that are needed to operate a typical
freight train. In addition, the consultant suggests that the following excursion operation
personnel, at a minimum, are needed for a successful excursion train program.
Excursion Manager Full- time position would be responsible for hiring, training, and
managing all excursion employees, strategic coordination with AZER management,
marketing and promotion, reservations and ticketing. Manager would assist with
conception and development of the on- board experience as well as matters related to
passenger security and safety. Salary $ 50,000 annually.
Excursion Administrative Professional Part time position would be responsible for
bookkeeping and other record keeping, payroll and bill- paying, the management of any
agency agreements and settlements with agents. Position would assist manager as needed.
Would earn $ 16,000 per season based on an annual salary of $ 32,000.
Reservations and Ticket Clerk( s) Reservation- taking responsibilities would include
answering inbound calls from vendors and customers regarding train reservations and
availability. Position would require excellent people skills, phone skills, some computer
experience, and problem- solving ability. Ticket Counter responsibilities would include
greeting customers at ticket counter, issuing tickets. Wages would be $ 14.00 per hour.
Train Host/ Narrator Responsibilities would include acting as Passenger Conductor,
supervising passenger boarding, seating, and ticket collection. Position would coordinate
with both AZER operating crew and excursion ground personnel to facilitate safe and
efficient operation. May be required to provide narrative during trip and make
announcements over train’s public address system. Position would require in- depth
knowledge of area and of railroad and area history, together with public speaking and
people skills. Train Host may assist with marketing. Wages per season would equal
$ 25,000.
Car Attendant ( 1 per car) Responsibilities would include interacting with passengers
during trip, boarding passengers, collecting tickets, sharing knowledge of railroad and
history of area while maintaining a safe environment for passengers. Wages would be
$ 14.00 per hour.
Snack Bar Attendant ( 1 per train) Responsibilities would include interacting with
passengers during trip, setting up snack bar on a daily basis, serving customers, keeping
inventory and daily sales sheets. This position would also include sharing knowledge of
railroad and history of area while providing positive customer service. Wages would be
$ 14.00 per hour.
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 38
Depending upon the talents and abilities of those who apply for these positions, a car
attendant of a weekends- only operation could also function as a reservations clerk during
the week, for example. The pro- formas also provide for fringe benefits equal to 50
percent of the salary or wages for each employee.
General and Administrative Costs
The majority of the General and Administrative Costs shown are estimates based on
empirical knowledge. Until more details of the operation are known, some of these are
difficult to predict. For example, can the excursion train operation be headquartered in the
historic Globe passenger depot— which would be the ideal location? If so, will the
excursion be charged rent for use of the facility? In addition to liability insurance already
carried by Arizona Eastern, what additional insurance expense will be required to cover
exposure at the Miami, Globe, Casino, and San Carlos stops? What about liability
coverage on Tribal land at the Casino and San Carlos?
Some of the administrative costs are shown as variable depending upon ridership levels.
The following methodologies were used to estimate variable costs.
Advertising and Promotion is the same number as, and in addition to, Cost of Sales. The
Cost of Sales figure assumes that an average commission of 10 percent will be charged on
each ticket sold including travel agency commissions and credit card fees. As the
operation’s own clerks will sell some tickets for cash, adding Cost of Sales results in a
more conservative revenue estimate. Advertising and Promotion increases with ridership
because increased advertising is likely to attract more riders. This figure could also
include additional commissions paid to ticket wholesalers, literature distribution services,
and the cost of developing and printing the literature itself.
Sales Tax amount of 8.1 percent is applied to the projected gross revenue for each
scenario. If viewed as a service, the operation may be exempt from some or all of the
sales tax, with the exception of food, beverage, and gift shop revenue.
Postage is estimated as a base amount of $ 100 per operating month plus the cost of mailing
a first class letter ( containing literature, pre- paid tickets, etc.) to each adult passenger.
Snack Bar Revenue and Food Product were not included in the pro- formas. The
consultant assumes that modest net revenue might be made from selling food and
beverages on trains, depending upon the exact schedule, equipment configuration and
operating scenario chosen. However the revenue is unlikely to support the wages and
fringe of the snack bar attendant. Food and beverage service can add to the passengers’
experience and is intended to be an attractive feature of the operation rather than a profit
center.
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 39
The ticket prices of the dinner train options were increased to reflect the cost of the
dinners. The consultant assumes that the “ dinner” segment of a dinner train operation
would cover its costs, as the amount included in the price could be adjusted to reflect
whatever menu were chosen.
Depot Gift Shop was not included in the pro- formas. Such a shop can become a profit
center for the excursion operation, as well as part of the operation’s marketing program.
Excursion rail passengers will pay retail equivalent or higher prices for caps, T- shirts,
sweatshirts, and other apparel that provide them with souvenirs of their trip and also serve
a marketing function when worn publicly. If the operation is headquartered in the Globe
passenger depot, space might be available for a gift shop. Alternatively, the adjacent
building used as the ticket office during the 2006 “ Spike” demonstration trips could
provide this function. A railroad- themed gift shop could be developed that could include
the following:
• Model railroad items targeting serious hobbyists
• Toy train items such as “ Thomas the Tank Engine” items for younger children
• Railroad calendars, photographs, and DVDs
• Books about railroads, Arizona, Native Americans, Globe, Gila County, and other
local and regional topics
• Antique and replica railroad collectables
• Railroad- themed clothing apparel
As the purpose of the pro- formas is to evaluate the potential for various operating
scenarios, the gift shop concepts were omitted for simplicity’s sake. However well- run
gift shops are an effective component of most successful excursion train operations.
CONCLUSION
The shortest trip— the Globe- Casino schedule that is the most equivalent to the “ Spike”
demonstration trips— is the best financial performer using the revised fare structure. While
the option of extending the operation to either Miami on the West or San Carlos or beyond
on the East in the future should not be ruled out, the Casino and Downtown Globe are the
most sensible termini in the short term. Moreover, the Globe- Casino route can be
implemented with minimal capital cost. Track improvement would be required for
extension to either Miami or San Carlos, and a wye or turntable would be needed at each
end in order to operate a steam locomotive.
Both Miami and San Carlos have significant tourist potential, given the potential of
Miami’s downtown and international appeal of Tribal destinations such as San Carlos.
However, downtown Globe and the Casino are established attractions. The picturesque
Globe passenger depot is an ideal terminal for an excursion train, although adequate
parking may ultimately be an issue. In addition, locating the rail terminal at this location
will draw additional tourists into downtown Globe, which will benefit other merchants in
the area.
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 40
Neither of the dinner train options seems to make sense financially. The “ dinner on
board” option sounds appealing, but would need to charge a significantly higher fare in
order to be profitable. This option would also be the most logistically complex to operate
and would require the most up- front investment in time and money for personnel training,
food and beverage licensing, and specialized equipment. The “ dinner at the Casino”
option could be offered anyway as an optional package. Having the equipment layover at
the Casino— blocking the main line unless a siding were constructed for that purpose— is
both wasteful and unworkable on a regular basis. While the full compliment of excursion
personnel is on duty and on the payroll, the equipment should be kept moving.
Table 13- A shows the inaugural schedule and Table 13- B shows a recommended eight-trips-
per- day schedule. While operating eight trips per day might appear excessive, it
might eventually make sense logistically. At the slow speeds at which the train will be
operating, with the relatively light load of two or three passenger cars, the amount of fuel
consumed by the locomotive is much more closely related to the number of hours daily that
the locomotive operates, as opposed to the total mileage operated. Diesel locomotives are
typically left to idle for short periods between runs, so the difference in the amount of fuel
consumed between a four- round- trip day and an eight- round- trip day could be nominal.
ADOT is planning extensive roadway work on US 60 west of Globe, which may delay
excursion passengers driving up from the Phoenix area. More frequent schedules will
mitigate the disappointment of any passengers who miss the schedule they had planned to
ride.
Table 14 presents a pro- forma for the recommended operating scenario. Both four- trips-per-
day and eight- trips- per- day options are shown although, as explained above, the
difference in cost between the two is expected to be of little consequence.
The ridership projections for the two options have been adjusted to be consistent with the
annual ridership projection of 50,000. This pro- forma is intended to be a “ mature
snapshot” of the established operation. Initial ridership is likely to be lower until the
marketing efforts have had time to take effect. The railroad has indicated that much of the
telephone reservations and ticketing will be handled by the existing Rio Grande Scenic
Railroad operation, which will save significant clerical and administrative costs. Utilizing
the Globe Main Street volunteer corps can to assist with ticketing, passenger loading, gift
shop operation and so forth can further reduce labor costs.
Service Inaugural
The consultant attended the service inaugural on December 13, 2008, a proud moment for
the many stakeholders who worked to make the concept a reality. After a ribbon- cutting
ceremony, those present boarded the Copper Spike for a round trip to the Apache Gold
Casino and return.
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 41
TABLE 13- A. FOUR TRIPS DAILY— INAUGURAL SCHEDULE
Eastward Westward
Stations
9: 30 AM 11: 30 PM 1: 30 PM 3: 30 PM Lv. Globe Ar. 10: 50 AM 12: 50 PM 2: 50 PM 4: 50 PM
10: 10 AM 12: 10 PM 2: 10 PM 4: 10 PM Ar.
Apache
Gold
Casino
Lv. 10: 20 AM 12: 20 PM 2: 20 PM 4: 20 PM
Source: Arizona Eastern Railway, www. copperspike. com
TABLE 13- B. EIGHT TRIPS DAILY SCHEDULE
Eastward
Lv. Globe 10: 00 AM 11: 00 AM 12: 00 PM 1: 00 PM .2: 00 PM 3: 00 PM .4: 00 PM 5: 00 PM
Ar. Apache Gold
Casino 10: 25 AM 11: 25 AM 12: 25 PM 1: 25 PM 2: 25 PM 3: 25 PM 4: 25 PM 5: 25 PM
Westward
Lv. Apache Gold
Casino 10: 30 AM 11: 30 AM 12: 30 PM 1: 30 PM 2: 30 PM 3: 30 PM 4: 30 PM 5: 30 PM
Ar. Globe 10: 55 AM 11: 55 AM 12: 55 PM 1: 55 PM 2: 55 PM 3: 55 PM 4: 55 PM 5: 55 PM
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 42
TABLE 14. RECOMMENDED OPERATING SCENARIO PRO- FORMA
System Parameters
Globe- Casino
Excursion
Globe- Casino
Excursion
4 Trips Per Day 8 Trips Per Day
Potential Ridership 47,628 49,392
Adults ( 70%) 33,340 34,574
Seniors ( 15%) 7,144 7,409
Children 12 and under ( 15%) 7,144 7,409
Potential Revenue
Adults $ 666,792 $ 691,488
Seniors 128,596 133,358
Children 12 and under 71,442 74,088
Total $ 866,830 $ 898,934
Less Cost of Sales 86,683 89,893
Net Revenue $ 780,147 $ 809,041
Employees
Excursion Manager FTE $ 50,000 $ 50,000
Administrative Professional PTE 16,000 16,000
Reservation Clerks PTE 16,800 16,800
Train Host/ Narrator/ Marketer 25,000 25,000
Snack Bar Attendant ( 1 per train) 10,976 10,976
Car Attendant ( 1 per car) 32,928 21,952
Fringe 75,852 70,364
Total Labor Cost $ 227,556 $ 211,092
Seasonal Railroad Operating Costs
One Diesel Locomotive $ 112,700 $ 112,700
Two Diesel Locomotives $ 142,100 $ 142,100
Steam Locomotive $ 308,700 $ 308,700
Passenger Car ( each) $ 51,450 $ 34,300
Seasonal Equipment Costs
Steam Locomotive $ 35,000 $ 35,000
Passenger Car ( each) $ 21,000 $ 14,000
General and Administrative Costs
Utilities $ 18,000 $ 18,000
Telephone/ Internet 1,200 1,200
Office Supplies 1,200 1,200
Advertising and Promotion 86,683 89,893
Sales Tax 70,213 72,814
Dues & Subscriptions 600 600
Postage 14,269 14,776
Professional Services 6,000 6,000
Insurance 5,000 5,000
Total General and Admin. $ 203,165 $ 209,483
Total Expenses
One Diesel Locomotive $ 615,871.39 $ 581,574.63
Two Diesel Locomotives $ 645,271.39 $ 610,974.63
Steam Locomotive $ 846,871.39 $ 812,574.63
Projected Seasonal Profit ( Loss)
One Diesel Locomotive $ 164,275.25 $ 227,466.33
Two Diesel Locomotives $ 134,875.25 $ 198,066.33
Steam Locomotive $ ( 66,724.75) $ ( 3,533.67)
Lima & Associates Gila County Small Area Transportation Study – Page 43
En route, passengers enjoyed the scenic views of the Pinal Mountains and the surrounding
desert from the dome car and were entertained by a Native American flutist who had also
performed for the ribbon- cutting ceremony.
The Arizona Eastern officials present indicated that the railway intends to introduce a
steam locomotive to the route as soon as possible. The locomotive planned to be used is a
Heisler, a type of logging locomotive that can operate in either direction and does not need
to be turned on a wye. Moreover, railroad officials are optimistic that the operating costs
of operating the steam locomotive are lower than projected because, unlike a diesel, a
steam locomotive can consume reclaimed motor oil and other types of fuel that are less
expensive per gallon than diesel.
Information regarding schedules, fares, and themed events such as Valentines Day trips
can be obtained from the operation’s Web site at www. copperspike. com.
FIGURE 9. PREPARING FOR INAUGURAL TRIP
Conductor Ken Bitten, Engineer Earl Knoob, and Globe Main Street
Director Kip Culver confer before inaugural departure of the Copper
Spike. Knoob is an experienced steam locomotive engineer, and
Culver was instrumental in leading the community effort to establish
the service.
— Lima & Associates photo
APPENDIX A. ESTIMATING TRANSIT DEMAND
Lima & Associates Gila County Passenger Rail Study – Page 45
ESTIMATING TRANSIT DEMAND
The TCRP estimations were developed based on specific population groups within the
hypothetical service area presented in Figure 5. These population groups are typically
referred to as transit dependent populations, and statistically are the most likely to use
transit if available. The groups include ( as defined by the Census); person aged 65 or over,
persons aged 16 to 64 with mobility limitations, and persons aged 64 or under, residing in
households with incomes below the poverty level. Table A- 1 shows the total 2030
forecasted populations for each group in the hypothetical service area.
TABLE A- 1. 2030 POPULATION OF SERVICE GROUPS IN SERVICE AREA
Service Group
2030 AG*
Population
Persons aged 65 or over 5,432
Persons aged 16 to 64 with mobility limitations 3,526
Persons aged 64 or under, residing in households
with incomes below the poverty level
4,697
Source: Lima & Associates, Inc.
* Gila County Small Area Transportation Study Accelerated Growth Scenario
The TCRP workbook also requires estimations of vehicle miles per year, and subsequently
vehicle miles per square mile. These estimations are used to understand the level, or
amount of transit that will be available to a defined service area. Preliminary assumptions
for the number of trips per day, service days per year, and length of the transit routes were
also made. It was assumed that service would be provided twice daily between Miami,
Globe, the Casino, and San Carlos. These trips would result in 112 vehicle miles per day.
Assuming that service was provided six days per week, or 312 service days per year, the
annual vehicle miles for the hypothetical system would be 34,944. Table A- 2 shows the
process used for calculating the vehicle miles per square mile.
TABLE A- 2. CALCULATION OF VEHICLE MILES PER SQUARE MILE
Calculations Data
Estimated vehicle miles per day = 112
Estimated service days per year = X 312
Estimated vehicle miles per year = 34,944
Size of service area ( square miles) = 524
vehicle miles / service area = 34,944 / 512
Vehicle miles per square mile = 67
Source: Lima & Associates, Inc.
The calculations from Table A- 2, specifically the vehicle miles per square mile, are input
into a formula provided in the TCRP workbook to create a service factor for each
Lima & Associates Gila County Passenger Rail Study – Page 46
population group. These formulas rely on given factors which are related to the vehicle
miles per square mile. Table A- 3 shows the calculation of the service factors needed for
calculating the estimate of transit demand.
TABLE A- 3. SERVICE FACTOR CALCULATIONS
Population Group
Vehicle Miles
per Square
Mile
Multiplied by
TCRP Factor
1
Plus
TCRP
Factor 2
Divided by
1 million
Equals
Service
Factor
Over 65 67 2.682 376 1,000,000 0.000555694
Mobility Limited 67 1.57 1010 1,000,000 0.00111519
Below Poverty 67 2.45 525 1,000,000 0.00068915
Source: Lima & Associates, Inc.
These derived service factors, based on the frequency of service and size of the service
area, are part of the final calculations to estimate demand. Table A- 4 shows the formula
provided in the TCRP workbook, which includes a standard factor, population of each
group, and the service factor. Table A- 4 shows the estimated demand for each population
group and the total estimated demand for transit. This methodology estimates a total
yearly demand ( all trips made during a year period) for the Miami- Globe- San Carlos route
of 12,165 trips, an average of about 39 trips per day ( assuming 312 days of service).
TABLE A- 4. ESTIMATION OF TRANSIT DEMAND
Population Group
TCRP
factor x Population x
Service
Factor =
Estimated
Annual
Demand
Over 65 1,200 x 17,790 x 0.000555694 = 3,562
Mobility Limited 1,200 x 11,740 x 0.00111519 = 4,718
Below Poverty 1,200 x 15,641 x 0.00068915 = 3,884
Total Estimated Annual Transit Demand = 12,165
Source: Lima & Associates, Inc.
The TCRP workbook includes an alternative method for estimating demand. This
alternative method provides a secondary demand estimate that can be compared against the
first. This alternative method is based on pre- calculated trip rate curves created from
research and analysis of other rural transit programs. The chart compares vehicle miles per
square mile ( as derived in Table A- 2) against annual trips per person as shown in Figure
A- 1.
Lima & Associates Gila County Passenger Rail Study – Page 47
FIGURE A- 1. TRIP RATES FOR ALTERNATIVE ESTIMATION PROCEDURE
Source: Adapted from: TCRP Report 3, Workbook for Estimating Demand for Rural Passenger
Transportation, Figure 6, pg 45.
The estimated trip rates for the hypothetical Miami- Globe- San Carlos service based on 68
vehicle miles per square mile for each population group are overlaid on the chart taken
from the TCRP workbook, and shown above in Figure A- 1.
The estimated trip rates taken from Figure A- 1 are used to estimate the demand for each
population group as shown in Table A- 5. The total estimated demand, using this alternative
method, is 25,962 annual trips, or 83 trips per day ( assuming 312 service days).
TABLE A- 5. ESTIMATION OF TRANSIT DEMAND - ALTERNATIVE METHOD
Population Group
Population in
Service Area
Trip Rate
( from Figure A- 1)
Estimated Demand
( Pop. x Trip Rate)
Over 65 5,342 2.1 11,219
Mobility Limited 3,526 2.05 7,227
Below Poverty 4,697 1.6 7,515
Total Estimated Trip Demand = 25,962
Source: Lima & Associates, Inc.
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
Annual Vehicle- Miles per Square Mile
Annual Trips per Person
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Over 65
Mobility Limited
Study Area = 67
Below Poverty
2.1
2.05
1.6
Lima & Associates Gila County Passenger Rail Study – Page 48
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